Today is the birthday of Simo Häyhä (born 1905, died April 1, 2002), was the world’s most successful sniper. Using an iron-sighted Mosin–Nagant in Finland’s Winter War, he had an astounding 505 confirmed sniper kills.
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In addition to two articles of my own, today I’m posting a piece by our Medical Editor and a product review by Pat Cascio. Please note that they are both volunteer editors. Their efforts are greatly appreciated!
I’ve come to the conclusion that our worst imaginings of Canadian timber wolves (purposefully introduced to the Lower 48 by do-gooder bureaucrats in 1995) might have been insufficient. To those of us who live in the rural west, these land sharks are well known for their fanged depredations on sheep, cattle, deer, elk, and moose. But their greater menace–at least to humans–might actually be in the form of a tiny tapeworm that they carry: Echinococcus granulosus. This tapeworm was endemic with these wolves, long before they were introduced. Tapeworm cysts have been identified in both Idaho and Montana in recent years, and wolves have been confirmed as definitive hosts and the primary vectors.
Take a few minutes to read this: Two-Thirds of Idaho Wolf Carcasses Examined Have Thousands of Hydatid Disease Tapeworms. Also read this summary and a few of its many linked references.
It bears particular mention that this variety of tapeworm is incurable, except by invasive surgery. (Antiparasitical drugs are ineffective.) And even worse, there is no simple test for infection. Only chest-abdomen scans or whole body scans show “hot spots” where the worms have triggered the formation of cysts. Echinococcosis is not pretty. The Echinococcus granulosus tapeworm cysts are mainly found in the lungs and liver. The tapeworms themselves are just a half inch long, but their cysts are large, ugly, and eventually life threatening, especially in mammals with the longest life spans. (Read: humans.) In some cases they can grow in the heart, the thyroid gland, and although rare, even inside bones and in the brain. I would not like them to start breeding inside my skull. Not good.
The life-cycle Echinococcus eggs and worms is insidious and incremental. The eggs can be viably dormant in the soil for up to 41 months. They can potentially become endemic in a wide variety of mammal populations. Here is just one example: In areas where wolf packs travel, the scat they leave in random locations can be handled by mice and rats that are attracted to the hair that makes up as much as 40% of the scat pellets, by volume. (Rodents actively gather hair, for nesting material.) So they bring the tapeworm eggs home, and are infected. Then the infected rodents get eaten by the local foxes, coyotes, wolves, bobcats, lynx, and mountain lions. And, oh yes, your house cat. Then your sweet little kitty leaves moist deposits in your garden raised beds, or in your child’s play sand box. Charming. This is sort of like watching the movie Prometheus
I am particularly troubled by the fact that wildlife biologists knew that Canadian timber wolves carried the hydatid tapeworms. (It has been well documented since the 1930s, and was studied in detail in the 1950s.) But because of their enthusiasm, the biologist-activists were silent about it and went ahead and supported the wolf introduction plan. There are some sick puppies out there, and not all of them are canids.
The bottom line: Encourage your state legislators to allow wolf hunting and trapping, to reduce the number of wolf packs. And if you live in wolf country, then DO NOT handle the scat of any predators without wearing gloves and a good quality dust respirator. That includes handling feces from your house cat.
One final parenthetical note: Be on guard for anyone who uses the term “reintroduction” for the introduction Canadian timber wolves in the Lower 48. These wolves were not reintroduced. They are in fact an invasive subspecies. The Canadian timber wolf is a larger subspecies of wolf: Canis lupus occidentalis. The Canadian Timber Wolf (aka Mackenzie River Wolf) can weigh up to 170 pounds and travel up to 70 miles per day. Most of the wolves that originally inhabited the Lower 48 that were extirpated a century ago were the 80 to 110-pound Great Plains Wolf subspecies. (Canis lupus nubilus.) This disparity in part explains the rapid decline of the deer, elk, and moose herds in Idaho and Montana since 2000.
I’ve been warning SurvivalBlog readers about the debasement of the nickel for several years. It now costs the U.S. Mint 11.2 cents to produce each nickel, so debasement seems inevitable.
After a two-year study, testing 80 different alloys, the United States Mint’s findings on alternative metals were announced on December 14, 2012. In essence they’ve said: “We need more time.” Here is the key line from the report summary: “The Mint has made significant progress and, at this time, has concluded that additional R&D is necessary before it can recommend any changes to the current coin composition.” Here is a link to the full report.
Based on the biennial R&D report, the U.S. Congress will probably either delay making changes to the penny and nickel, or they may just suspend further production. (Following Canada’s lead, with pennies.)
Hopefully the Mint’s dawdling will give us another year or two to stack up our boxes of nickels. (Once a composition change takes place, we will have to laboriously sort nickels.) If you read the contractor’s report, you’ll see that one of the goals of the planned debasement is that is be “seamless“, meaning: “Differences and abilities to recognize or process incumbent coins and coins produced from alternative material candidates cannot be distinguished through normal coin processing.” That is bureaucratic doublespeak for “Let’s make our new worthless tokens look like real coins, even to vending machines.”
I found the following buried in the contractor’s report:
“Stainless steels, despite the having an electrical conductivity that is about half that of cupronickel, were recommended for testing for the 5-cent coin. The ideal stainless steel for coinage would be non-ferromagnetic (so it would not be mistaken for a steel slug), have low flow stress (i.e., result in low striking loads), have excellent corrosion resistance and be comprised to the greatest extent practical of elements that are not as expensive as nickel. Nickel and molybdenum contents should be low to reduce costs. Austenitic stainless steels (3xx series) are preferred because they are non-ferromagnetic and thereby are more likely to be accepted by a majority of fielded coin-processing equipment.”
So I stand by my assertion that unless this denomination is dropped altogether, the cupronickel five cent piece will be replaced by a stainless steel token. It now appears that the 301, 302, 302HQ, or 304 stainless steel alloys are the most likely choices. Perhaps they’ll lean toward choosing 302HQ or 304, since they both include some nickel for Austenitizing. Hence, the bureaucrats could save face (partially) by being able to claim that the new stainless steel slugs are still “nickels.” But they’ll still be just about worthless, compared to a real cupronickel nickel which contains more than five cents of base metal value. (See the details at the Coinflation web site.) The report cited a fully burden production cost (including base metal, tooling, labor and transportation) of 6.77 cents to produce each nickel out of stainless steel, but that is certainly an improvement over the current cost of 11.2 cents. To the citizenry at large, the real consequence of the debasement is this: The melt value of a stainless steel nickel will be less than half a cent. We will be robbed again folks, just like our parents were, in 1964. Let’s not lose sight of the real underlying crime: general currency inflation. There would be no need to debase coins except for continuing, insidious inflation.
The goal of all government mints is to maintain seigniorage –which is making a profit on the coins that they produce. (Where their cost to produce each coin is less than its face value.) The U.S. Mint’s current champion of positive seigniorage is the much-maligned Sacagawea/Presidential “golden” dollar coin, which is a Manganese-Brass token with a base metal value of just 6.22 cents–just one cent more then the base metal value of a nickel. No wonder people instinctively hate them. (By the way, I consider putting a “gold” finish on those coins the most heinous bit of legerdemain in the history of the U.S. Mint.)
Governments don’t put up with negative seigniorage for very long. Debasement of nickels and pennies is coming, but thankfully the wheels of bureaucracy turn slowly. Let’s just be thankful that we’ll have a some more time to keep stacking up our nickels.
Soon enough we’ll know whether December 21, 2012 portends a cataclysmic event. One approach regarding how to prepare is to consider what might kill you in a day, in a week, in a month, or a year. Your preparations will vary depending on your health now and how long you expect to live without the prospect of professional medical care.
The most common life-threatening conditions that can kill in a day include acute allergic reactions (anaphylaxis), heart arrhythmias, pulmonary embolism (blood clot to the lung), various severe traumas (gunshot wounds, excess blood loss, cervical fracture (broken neck), and of course, suicide. Without sufficient fluid replacement, cholera victims will die within days. Without insulin, Type 1 diabetics will soon be comatose. Dehydration can kill in a week, as can many infections including untreated cellulitis, pneumonia, intestinal infections, sepsis, and several others. By a month children may succumb to starvation, though adults generally take somewhat longer. Shelter, water, and food are every bit as important as other medical needs. At a year, all of the above scenarios remain a threat, but in addition, chronic diseases and nutritional deficiencies will begin to take their toll.
With these considerations in mind, I suggest procuring the following:
In a single shopping trip and one hour online, you can accomplish most of what I’ve outlined above. If you do so, you’ll be ahead of 99% of the population. And if every one of the hundreds of thousands of readers of SurvivalBlog is prepared, imagine how much good we could do for the world.
Editor’s Note: More of Dr. Koelker’s advice can be found at her web site: ArmageddonMedicine.net
I’ve been a huge fan of the M14 rifle system, ever since I was in Basic Combat Training in the US Army, way back in 1969. The .308 Winchester cartridge is the most popular long-range sniping round in use today. The military version is the 7.62 NATO – and they are not exactly the same round – the .308 Winchester round is actually a little bit hotter than the 7.62 NATO round is – not a big difference, but still a difference. When I went into Basic Combat Training, I was a mere 135 pounds – when I finished Basic, and my AIT Infantry School, I was a lean, mean fighting machine coming in at 165 pounds. The one thing I didn’t like about the M14 was how long it was – and for a scrawny little guy, the M14 was a bit hard to wield. Back then, I found the M14 a bit too long, but I still loved the gun, and went on to compete with it (a match-grade version) while on the Illinois Rifle & Pistol Team, when I worked for the Illinois National Guard in a full-time capacity. Every match I entered, in my class, I easily won – it was a combination of the match-grade rifle, the match ammo and my meager skills. My love affair with the M14 only grew over the years, and I longed for a civilian-version of the M14 in semi-auto so I could own one myself.
The Springfield Armory M1A was first introduced in 1974. The M1A is a semi-auto only version of the M14, and if you’ve ever fired the M14 on full-auto, you can appreciate how much that gun kicked and how pretty much useless in full-auto mode. I don’t recall when I laid claim to my first Springfield Armory M1A, but it was many years ago – and I’m totally ashamed to say, I don’t presently own an M1A of my own. However, I have vowed to correct that, and my goal is to get the SOCOM version of the M1A – it’s shorter, lighter and faster handling than the full-sized M1A is. Matter of fact, my local gun shop just picked-up a used, but as-new, SOCOM at a gun show, and I’m tempted, real tempted to get it – but I’d have to do some serious gun-trading, and I’m not sure I’m up to the task – at present. UPDATE: I did a gun deal and now have my own SOCOM 16!
Now, while the SOCOM is a faster handling and shorter version of the full-sized M1A, it can still benefit from a little improvement, especially in the fast handling department. The kind folks at US Tactical Supply contacted me and wanted me to check out a SOCOM 16 that they put in their new M14 Juggernaut Rogue Chassis System, by Juggernaut Tactical. I was intrigued to say the least. I picked-up the SOCOM, that was now transformed into a very short bullpup stock design, fast-handling little carbine. Now, I’ll admit up front that I have never been a big fan of the bullpup design – it is just foreign to me. For some reason, the bullpup design doesn’t look right to my way of thinking, and I’ve tried several bullpup carbines over the years, and they just didn’t appeal to me – I’m old school!
Okay, so what do we have here with the Springfield Armory SOCOM set in a bullpup stock set-up? The first thing that catches your attention is that, you don’t think you are actually looking at a full rifle/carbine – I thought I was just looking at a stock design, with a phony barrel installed on it. Surely, this couldn’t be a .308 Winchester chambered rifle I was looking at, could it? The Juggernaut stock shortens the operating length of the SOCOM by close to 12-inches, yeah, you read that right – almost 12-inches are reduced from the SOCOM in a GI issued stock, without modifying or shortening the barrel. “Can’t be” I said to myself, it just can’t be!
I’m not going to cover all the specs of the Juggernaut bullpup design, you can read them for yourself on the above link. But I do want to touch on some of the the highlights of this design. The Juggernaut is manufactured out of hardened T6-6061 billet aluminum, and 4140 chrome moly and Mil-Spec Type III hard coat anodized – we’re talking tough stuff here. There are also Mil-Standard M1913 rails located at 3, 6, 9 and 12 o’clock on the front of the bullpup, and that measures out to 39-inches of rail space, for all the neat things you plan to add to this platform. The Juggernaut will fit all USGI M14s and commercial variants including the SOCOM-16, as already mentioned above. The platform also installs easily, but it does take some time, without a gunsmith – but be advised, it will be time-consuming, but well worth it when you see the finished product. The Juggernaut is also available in black on black, tactical tan and black – the sample I tested was black on black. The pistol grip is the Hogue AR-15 style which I really like. And, the barrel is free-floated in this bullpup design, which will only add to the accuracy of the finished product. There is also an adjustable neoprene bedding system that eliminates tolerance issues with different manufacturer’s receivers, while still maintaining the accuracy potential that is there.
The SOCOM Juggernaut sample I tested had an ACOG mounted on it – and this is an outstanding scope system that is also sold by US Tactical Supply and is in-use by many military personnel all over the world, is a very tough optic system. And, there are several different versions of the ACOG, so make sure you know which model you want, if you’re in the market for this type of optic. (Some are made with ballistic cams to match the trajectory of 7.62mm NATO.) I found the ACOG very fast on-target, in all lighting conditions, too. The SOCOM Juggernaut also had the Grip Pod attached to the 6 o’clock rail, and I have previously reported on the Grip Pod – a very worthwhile addition to many tactical weapons, and in the case of the Juggernaut set-up, it was most welcomed.
The one thing I was a bit concerned with was, how well was the trigger going to work on this design with the longer linkage? Well, it felt a little bit different to me, but it only took a couple shots to get used to the trigger pull – which hadn’t really changed much but it “felt” a little bit different for some reason. There is also a left-side charging handle on the Juggernaut design, and I found it much easier and faster to use than the standard M14/M1A right side charging handle – it was very instinctive to use. It did take me a little practice getting used to inserting and removing the magazines with the bullpup design, but nothing that can’t be learned with practice. I’m just used to reaching forward of the trigger guard to remove and insert the magazines, with the bullpup design, the magazines are behind the trigger instead of in front of it. Also, the gun’s safety is now behind the trigger, and it is a push button design – I liked it!
So, what are the advantages of this Juggernaut bullpup design on a Springfield Armory SOCOM? Well, for starters, it makes the gun as short as possible, without having to get a special permit for a short-barreled rifle, and I refuse to jump through the red tape involved in licensing a rifle as a short-barreled rifle if the barrel is under 16-inches. The total overall length of the Juggernaut bullpup is slightly over 26-inches, which is as short as you can legally go according to FedGov gun regulations. However, even though you will be meeting FedGov gun regulations for overall length, there are some backwards thinking states and locales that won’t allow you to have a gun 26-inches in length – they require it to be longer – so check your state and local laws before converting a SOCOM to this super-short Juggernaut design – you don’t want to be in violation of gun laws. Another advantage is how fast the Juggernaut handles – and adding the Juggernaut bullpup stock to a SOCOM adds 2-pounds to the weight of the gun. It feels heavier – but it handles much faster – it could possibly be the ultimate CQB .308 Winchester carbine on the market. The added weight really tamed the recoil of the .308 Winchester round, too.
I have to admit, I played around with the Juggernaut SOCOM for quite a while, before heading out to the range to actually fire it. I had a good supply of Black Hills Ammunition .308 Winchester ammo to include their 168-grain Hornady A-MAX HP load, and their 168-grain Match Hollow Point load. From Buffalo Bore Ammunition I had their 175-grain Sierra Match King JHP load, that they call their Sniper Load. I had my target set-up at 100-yards, and I was firing over the hood of my SUV, using the Grip Pod, which made for a very stable shooting platform. The first shot caught my attention – really caught my attention! The SOCOM comes with a muzzle brake instead of flash suppressor and I knew that it would cause more muzzle blast. However, what I didn’t take into consideration was how the muzzle blast would reflect off the hood of my SUV- it was loud, and I could really feel it on my face. Before firing a second shot, I placed a sleeping bag on the hood, and when the second round was fired, the sleeping bag really absorbed the blast. See, one is never too old to learn – but my wife might disagree with that statement. I didn’t fire the SOCOM Juggernaut from the prone position – the ground was wet, and quite frankly, I’m getting too old to go prone, unless I absolutely have to do so. I don’t believe the muzzle blast would be as bad while prone on the ground – but shooting over the hood of a car, with that metal under the muzzle brake caught my attention, but it was easily solved with a sleeping bag under the gun.
The first magazine full of ammo was a mix of the Black Hills and Buffalo Bore ammo – I wanted to fire the gun to see how it would function with a mixed mag of ammo – there weren’t any problems. I just plinked at some rocks before getting serious and loading-up for some accuracy testing. I had some concerns that the empty brass might catch on the Juggernaut stock set-up – there wasn’t anything to be concerned about, and empties were flung far from the gun, without causing any problems at all. I had a beautiful Fall day for shooting – the temps were in the upper 50s and overcast, and I do my best shooting on overcast days for some reason. Keep in mind I’ve been shooting high-powered rifles for about 44 years, and I shoot several times per week – so I get a lot more practice than most folks do, and I’m a more than average shot with a rifle.
The added weight of the Juggernaut stock really kept the muzzle down when firing the SOCOM, and as I pointed out earlier, the bullpup stock really makes the gun faster handling, too. The nubbed recoil pad on the butt of the Juggernaut really kept the SOCOM in my shoulder, for follow-up shots, too. With the Black Hills 168-grain A MAX hunting load, which is from their Black Gold line-up, I was getting groups just a hair below 2-inches, and that is great accuracy from a 16-inch semi-auto M1A in my book. I fired a number of groups with this ammo, and they were consistently a hair or two under 2-inches. Next up was the Black Hills 168-grain Match Hollow Point round, which has always been a great round in any .308 chambered rifles I’ve fired it through. If I did my part, I was getting groups right at a bit over 1-inch – that is outstanding accuracy. Next was the Buffalo Bore 175-grain JHP Sierra Match King Sniper Load, and I’ve found this to be an outstanding round – it shot great in a FAL I tested some time ago, and I won an informal shooting match with this round – without trying very hard. I was getting groups of 1.25-inches and they were ever so slightly higher on the target than the Black Hills 168-grain loads were – which I expected. I suspect this Buffalo Bore 175-grain Sniper Load would be a little bit better longer range round when we are getting out there 500-yards plus because of the slightly heavier bullets. As an added point of interest, I have used the Black Hills 168-grain Match HP load and the Buffalo Bore 175-grain Sniper load to win a few friendly shooting matches recently – both are outstanding in the accuracy department.
What was amazing was how consistent the SOCOM was shooting with all three loads. I worked hard, real hard to try and get a group or two under 1-inch at 100-yard, but it just wasn’t my day. Perhaps on another day, when I’m fresher, I could break that 1-inch group at 100-yard. I worked extra hard to wring-out all the accuracy potential of the SOCOM Juggernaut, but no matter what I did, I couldn’t break 1-inch – I was more than a little disappointed with myself. And, after a couple hours of shooting, I knew I had to call it quits as my groups started to open-up, and open-up quite a bit. I was getting tired and was losing a good focus on the target with the ACOG. I still believe this gun is capable of breaking 1-inch groups at 100-yards on another day. The Buffalo Bore 175-grain Sniper Load was right on the heels of the Black Hills 168-grain Match Hollow Point load, and I believe with more trigger time, these two rounds would be in a dead tie for best accuracy. The Buffalo Bore Sniper load, while not designed for big game hunting, could also be used on deer in my humble opinion. The Black Hills 168-grain Hornady A-MAX hunting load, from the Black Gold line-up shot great out of the SOCOM Juggernaut, but I’ve had much better accuracy out of this load in bolt-action hunting rifles – much better accuracy!
So, does the SOCOM Juggernaut have a place in this world? You bet it does! If you want what might just be the ultimate in a very short .308 M1A package, you can’t get it any shorter than the Juggernaut set-up. While not designed as a “sniper rifle” per se, the SOCOM Juggernaut can fill that role with the right ammo combination – and I believe it is good to go as a sniper’s rifle out to 400-500 yards with the right finger on the trigger. It can also fill the role of a CQB gun, when going against hard targets. The gun is very fast-handling, and you have the power of the .308 Winchester round in a very small package, that is controllable and very shootable, too. If I were to set-up a SOCOM in a Juggernaut stock, I’d take the muzzle brake off and put a flash suppressor on the end of the barrel – I don’t especially like muzzle brakes – but that’s my choice. I’d also add some pop-up front and rear sights on this set-up, as you have to remove the SOCOM’s front and rear sight when putting it into the Juggernaut stock. Other than that, there’s not much I’d add to the Juggernaut – I believe less is better – but there will be some folks who will most of the 39-inches of rail space and that’s fine with me, if that’s what they want to do.
Now, the Juggernaut conversion isn’t for everyone. The price is $999. However, you are getting the highest-quality bullpup stock set-up you can possibly get for a .308 chambered gun, and there isn’t anything else on the market that comes close, for an M1A rifle.
Okay, the Fed’s recent decision to boost its monetary stimulus (a.k.a. “money printing,” “quantitative easing,” or simply “QE“) by another $45 billion a month to a combined $85 billion per month demonstrates an almost complete departure from what a normal person might consider sensible.
To borrow a phrase from Joel Salatin: Folks, this ain’t normal. To this I will add …and it will end badly.
If you had stopped me on the street a few years ago and asked me what I thought would have happened in the stock, bond, foreign currency, and commodity markets on the day the Fed announced an $85 billion per month thin-air money printing program directed at government bonds, I never would have predicted what has actually come to pass.
I would have predicted soaring stock prices on the expectation that all this money would have to end up in the stock market eventually. I would have predicted the dollar to fall because who in their right mind would want to hold the currency of a country that is borrowing 46 cents (!) out of every dollar that it is spending while its central bank monetizes 100% of that craziness?
Further, I would have expected additional strength in the government bond market, because $85 billion pretty much covers all of the expected new issuance going forward, plus many entities still need to buy U.S. bonds for a variety of fiduciary reasons. With little product for sale and lots of bids by various players, one of which – the Fed – has a magic printing press and is not just price insensitive but actually seeking to drive prices higher (and yields lower), that’s a recipe for rising prices.
Then I would have called for sharply rising commodity markets because nothing correlates quite so well with thin-air money printing as commodities.
That’s what should have happened. But it’s not what we’re seeing.
Instead, stocks initially climbed but then closed red. Gold was mysteriously sold in the thinly-traded overnight markets and again right after the announcement in large, rapid HFT blocks that swamped the bids. U.S. Treasury bonds actually sold off on the news. The dollar hardly budged. Commodities were mixed across the board but more or less flat on the day, with the exception of the metals, and especially the precious metals, which were sold vigorously.
The markets are now well and truly broken. Not because they don’t conform to my predictions, but because they are no longer sending useful price signals. Instead, my hypothesis here is that the markets are now just a giant and rigged casino, where a relative handful of big firms and other tightly coupled players are gaming their orders to take advantage of this flood of money.
When your central bank badly misprices money and then bids up everything related to bonds, nothing can be reasonably priced. Risk is mispriced; the few remaining investors (as distinct from speculators, which are now the majority) are forced to accept both poor yields and higher risk – so we know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
QE4
So what exactly is this new thin-air money printing program all about? Well, unlike any prior Quantitative Easing (QE) announcement, this one was tied to a fuzzy and quirky government statistic: the unemployment rate.
QE4 is Just-In-Time Fed Policy to Avoid Calamity
Dec 13, 2012
We got the most thunderous Just-In-Time monetary policy today that is a substitute for the absence of any degree of stimulative fiscal policy.
You might say that QE4 is now going to act as both monetary and fiscal stimulus– another $85 billion worth of Fed accumulations of Treasury bonds and mortgages- that is meant to keep stock prices moving higher and residential home sales climbing briskly.
The goal is to drive economic activity, especially residential home building, so that unemployment drops from 7.7% to 6.5%. The surprise move is meant to signal the Fed’s awareness of the softening economy; it sees the gritty numbers before we do.
Getting unemployment down to 6.5% without inflation rising to a level higher than 2.5% is not expected to happen until 2014 at the earliest. And it could go longer if there is no deal and we go over the cliff.
But, you should know that the only reason unemployment is 7.7% is because hundreds of thousands of males have dropped out of the search for regular work. A very depressing tale.
The key point here is that the Fed is now actively running both monetary and fiscal policy because it will now be in the business of funding nearly 100% of all the new government deficit spending in 2013. And it is pumping a bit more than $1 trillion of hot, thin-air money into the economy as it does so.
The odd thing here is that by tying their policy to the unemployment rate, we could be in for a very long wait for the stimulus to end. The reason is that the unemployment rate has a couple of moving pieces, one being the number of people who are unemployed, and the second consisting of people who have given up looking for work, which is tracked in something called the ‘participation rate.’
As more people leave the labor force and the participation rate goes down, the unemployment rate goes down, too. Somewhat confusingly, as more jobs are created, the unemployment rate goes down, too. As you can see, these numbers work in opposition to each other because as more jobs become available, more people re-enter the work force.
Before the crisis struck, the participation rate was around 66.5%. But now it sits at just 63.6%, meaning that, at roughly 1.4 million jobs for each percent, a bit more than 4 million jobs would have to be created just to absorb the folks who left the labor force but presumably would like to work again. As those 4 million folks come back to work, the unemployment rate will not budge at all.
It will require two full years of 150,000 jobs per month just to absorb the 4 million missing workers, which means that this QE effort will be with us for a very long time. Three to four years is my best guess, and that’s only if the economy magically recovers. And I have very strong doubts about that.
This means that the Fed is most likely on track to increase its balance sheet by another $3-4 trillion. Ugh. That’s 300% to 400% more money created in the next year than was created than during the entire 200 years following the signing of the Declaration of Independence.
The other part of this new QE policy is that they will continue this as long as inflation remains below 2.5%. Again, this is a very fuzzy government statistic subject compared to the usual massaging and political biases, but it has top billing as the one that is most likely to force an early termination of the thin-air money printing efforts.
However, I remain convinced that the Fed will change any rules and move any goalposts it needs to in order to continue its mad money printing experiment. Because there really isn’t any other alternative at this point.
Secretly in the Open
Once upon a time, it would have been considered in bad taste to suggest that the world was being centrally managed in secret by a small-ish cabal of bankers whose actions served to either prop up the excessive spending habits of the very governments that conferred upon them the power to print money, or to bolster the health and profits of the banks they mainly serve.
That was then. Today you can just read about it in the Wall Street Journal:
Inside the Risky Bets of Central Banks
Dec 12, 2012
BASEL, Switzerland—Every two months, more than a dozen bankers meet here on Sunday evenings to talk and dine on the 18th floor of a cylindrical building looking out on the Rhine.
The dinner discussions on money and economics are more than academic. At the table are the chiefs of the world’s biggest central banks, representing countries that annually produce more than $51 trillion of gross domestic product, three-quarters of the world’s economic output.
Of late, these secret talks have focused on global economic troubles and the aggressive measures by central banks to manage their national economies. Since 2007, central banks have flooded the world financial system with more than $11 trillion. Faced with weak recoveries and Europe’s churning economic problems, the effort has accelerated. The biggest central banks plan to pump billions more into government bonds, mortgages and business loans.
Their monetary strategy isn’t found in standard textbooks. The central bankers are, in effect, conducting a high-stakes experiment, drawing in part on academic work by some of the men who studied and taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the 1970s and 1980s.
While many national governments, including the U.S., have failed to agree on fiscal policy—how best to balance tax revenues with spending during slow growth—the central bankers have forged their own path, independent of voters and politicians, bound by frequent conversations and relationships stretching back to university days.
If the central bankers are correct, they will help the world economy avoid prolonged stagnation and a repeat of central banking mistakes in the 1930s. If they are wrong, they could kindle inflation or sow the seeds of another financial crisis.
If it feels like you are part of a very grand, high-stakes experiment, congratulations! You’re exactly right. We are all collectively prisoner to whatever outcomes are in store.
The rather politely ignored truth right now, at least by most news outlets and politicians, is that the world’s central banks have wandered very far off the reservation and are running an experiment that really has only two possible outcomes. One is a return to what we all might call ‘normal and stable’ economic growth. The second is the complete collapse of the fiat money and their attendant financial systems and markets.
While it is technically possible to achieve some other middling outcome, that possibility has been receding to ever more remote territory with every passing month and new round of money printing.
The basic predicament here is that more and more money is being printed while the world economy, predictably for those who follow the net energy story, has been entirely stagnant and constantly threatening to slip back into economic retreat. Of course, more money + the same amount of (or even less) hard assets = the perfect recipe for inflation.
So the rise of inflation will signal the beginning of the end of this slow-motion tragedy. I use the term ‘tragedy’ here because it doesn’t have to end this way. We have other options; we could make other choices and use our time and resources to try and do something other than maintain a broken financial system that desperately needs to be changed.
In Part II: It’s Better to Be a Year Early Than a Day Late, I explain the facts behind why I am more convinced than ever that this all ends in one of the most disruptive financial and currency events ever seen on this planet. And while the repercussions will be felt by all, taking prudent action while there is still time can greatly improve our individual odds of weathering them safely.
(Part II has a free executive summary, but enrollment is required for full access).
Hey James,
I just read your comments on the Springfield Armory M1A and found it super interesting, I’ve been an avid hunter and shooter all my life and am very used to shooting rifles both long and short range/ scoped and unscoped. I’ve primarily owned and heavily customized both bolt action and AR platform guns and have been super happy with their accuracy and performance, however I’ve always wanted an M14 or M1A. Seeing the specifications on the “Loaded” model, match grade 22 inch – 1-11″ twist barrel, I suspect it will be quite accurate. I am a young guy with not a ton of money to throw around so I want to make a good purchase. Will the Springfield let me down if I want to shoot it scoped at sub-MOA to accurately hit man-sized targets out to 1,000 yards? I’m planning on shooting my custom hand loads through it, 178 Hornady A-Max HPBT. Thanks for your time I’m a big fan of your blog, BTW. – Jason L.
Jason:
I’ve owned a half dozen M1As over the years, but I eventually sold all of them, during the 1994-2004 ban. I replaced them with several L1A1s, later supplemented by some HK91 clones.
The “Loaded” M1A is a decent choice, but you must consider that it is an expensive rifle ($2,022, retail) and spare U.S.G.I. M14 magazines and spare parts are very expensive! And you probably won’t get sub-MOA accuracy unless you fiberglas bed the rifle. I recommend only buying original USGI magazines. many of the aftermarket magazines cannot be trusted to function reliably. (See my M14 / M1A Magazine FAQ, for details.)
For the same money as a “Loaded” M1A with one magazine and no scope, you could buy a PTR91-GI rifle (a HK91 clone), AND 100 spare alloy G3 magazines (under $3 each!), AND a Savage Model 10 .308 bolt action that is sub-MOA, right out the box.
For comparison, 100 spare original M14 magazines would cost you around $2,600. And just a spare USGI M14 operating rod (“op rod”) now costs around $250. You should dispassionately consider not just the initial cost of the rifle, but rather the full lifetime cost, including magazines and and a supply of repair parts.
If you buy a PTR91, make sure that it is the PTR91-GI variant that has chamber flutes that allow you to shoot the widest variety of ammo.
And if you feel that you must buy an M1A, then see this recent article: The Rise, Fall and Rise of the M14.
Captain Rawles,
Regarding the multiple letters you are receiving on the Nigerian scams, you may want to warn your readers that participation can lead to incarceration. The reader who told his story of USAA bank taking the amount of the fake checks from his account was lucky. Frequently, these scams prey on people who get greedy and suffer the consequences. In many cases, people receive a check (sometimes out of the blue, with no prior email contact) in the mail with a request to deposit it and send back 10% or 25%, etc to an international address (often in Canada). Since the check is normally for a substantial amount ($15,000 to $30,000 is common) greed overcomes common sense and the recipient deposits the check in his account. Sometimes these scams involve overpayment for a purchase or a sad story about trying to circumvent foreign banking laws. In any case, the recipient deposits the check, and maybe sends some money back, or just starts to spend the money himself.
When the check comes back as counterfeit, the bank deducts the amounts from his account and reports the incident to the police. In most states, this qualifies as Forgery, a felony. In my city, most banks spot the counterfeit check during the deposit attempt and calls law enforcement at that point. Although you may be saved from losing money you at least end up with a contact with local police that you wish you had avoided. If you have a criminal history and try to bluff your way through by justifying the check, you might get charged. Even if you end up with a not guilty judgment in the end, you have spent a lot of money, and had your freedom (not to mention your ability to possess firearms) endangered for no return.
In the end, it comes down to this: “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is!” Common Sense and Self Responsibility rule! Please keep up the good work with the blog. I read it every morning. – S.T. in Arkansas
Cobalt’s Cabbage Stew
Ingredients:
1 ½ lbs. lean ground meat
½ bell pepper, chopped
1 large onion, chopped
2 ribs celery, chopped
½ average size head of cabbage, rough sliced (thinner than ¼ head)
1 can Ranch-style beans
1 can Ro-Tel tomatoes (or comparable diced tomatoes with chilies)
1 can crushed or stewed tomatoes
1 tbl spoon chili powder
Salt and pepper to taste
Brown ground meat with bell pepper, onion, and celery. Drain.
Add remaining ingredients and bring to a boil.
Drop temperature and simmer covered for 1 ½ hours.
Chef’s Notes:
Serve with cornbread or french bread.
I usually double all ingredients and freeze the leftovers. I’ll also use a beef roast instead of hamburger. Cook the roast in beef broth and cube it to go into the stew.
Lastly, I’ve found more cabbage is better. For a single batch, I use as large a head as I can find.
Useful Recipe and Cooking Links:
Bredie (South African Lamb Stew) Recipe
Currently Available as a Free Kindle e-Book:
The Home Baking Guide to Substituting and Measuring
Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? Please send it via e-mail. Thanks!
B.B. suggested some recent commentary from Peter Schiff: No Way Out
More socialist buffoonery: France’s Jean-Marc Ayrault slams flight of the ‘greedy rich’ (JWR’s Comment: Gee, and they wonder why they are leaving. I suppose that wife-beaters wonder the same thing.)
Items from The Economatrix:
Job Openings in US Rose in October to Four-Month High
I often get questions about rust protection for long term storage of firearms. There is a company called Italian Gun Grease (all American-made products, but their chemist is Italian–so they thought it would be a catchy name), that have some good products for storing pistols and rifles. They are offering a special 25% introductory discount for SurvivalBlog readers. Enter the coupon code RAWLES25 when you check out. Full disclosure: They offered me a 10% piece of the action for mentioning their products.
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A reminder that the tax year ends December 31st, so it is important to complete your charitable contributions for 2012. One charity that I can highly recommend is Christian Reformed Outreach, South Sudan (C.R.O.S.S.) The situation on the border of Sudan and South Sudan requires intervention. If governments won’t, then NGOs and missionaries must step in to help. Please pray for South Sudan!
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A glimmer of hope for Illinois gun owners: Big win for gun-rights groups: Federal appeals court tosses state ban on carrying concealed weapons. (Thanks to T.J.P. for the link.)
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Reader Rob N. sent this news article from The Daily Mail: Connecticut shooting being tied to “Doomsday Preppers movement”. Rob notes many key words are embedded in the article: obsessed, stockpiling, survivalist, hoarding, prepping , etc. If just five guns constitutes an “obsession”…
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Frequent content contributor Jim W. suggested: How to Cure Common Shooting Mistakes
“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.” – Philip K. Dick
This is the birthday of Philip K. Dick (born 1928, died March 2, 1982.) Phillip Dick penned a remarkable number of science fiction novels and novellas that have been adapted into Hollywood movies including Blade Runner, Total Recall, Screamers, Impostor, Minority Report, Paycheck, A Scanner Darkly, Next, and The Adjustment Bureau. Though he had a troubled personal life (with drug abuse and several failed marriages), his captivating books certainly had a knack for envisioning potential futures.
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Today we present another entry for Round 44 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:
First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A $200 gift certificate, donated by Shelf Reliance.
Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, E.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).
Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.
Round 44 ends on January 31st, 2013, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
I am a firm believer that a TEOTWAWKI situation will happen, and in my lifetime. I consider myself a prepper, and am a daily reader of “prepping articles,” and almost always read about “bug out bags,” or “72-hour kits,” call them what you will. I also read allot of articles devoted to bug out vehicles. A bug out vehicle is a great concept, but is only as good as the distance it will take you, or for the length of time that it will last. I do believe that bugging out is a necessity in prepping for a TEOTWAWKI situation, but to my surprise I very rarely read articles on preparing for automotive repair during a TEOTWAWKI situation! Imagine this:
The grid goes down, you and your family and/or team are preparing to “bug out.” You gather all of your supplies, and start your journey to your retreat. On the way your vehicle starts running very rough, sputtering, and stalls on the side of the road, which is not a very good place to be during a TEOTWAWKI situation! What do you do? If a member of your family, and/or team is an experienced mechanic the situation may not seem so dire. That person may be able to repair your vehicle fast, and proper. But what if no such person is a member of your group? How did you prepare for this situation?
The basics of all automotive mechanics are as follows: Diagnosing the problem (figuring out what is wrong), and fixing the problem. This may seem difficult for someone who is not experienced in mechanical repair, and can definitely be a frustrating situation. Here are just a few from a very long list of tips:
In addition to making sure your vehicle has a spare tire it is always a good idea if possible to include more than one spare tire, and even a complete wheel and tire so as to change in a hurry, as you most likely wont have all day to work on changing a flat tire on the side of the road in a “bug out” situation. Just the other day a friend of the family was posting on facebook that she had a flat tire, and her donut (a common type of spare tire) went flat within an hour of it being changed, that’s two flat tires in one hour! It is impossible to predict every scenario, but you are always better off to plan ahead, plan ahead, and again plan ahead!
Currently my own personal vehicle a 1995 Chevy 1500 pick up has a bad exhaust system, brake problems, bad spark plug wires causing a misfire, and a tire that needs attention as it has been slowly leaking air! I think to myself, why I am I setting my self up for failure by putting off the work that needs to be done. How far would I make it if I needed to “bug out?” Probably not very far! Don’t set your self up for failure. Properly maintenance your vehicle as much as possible so that you are ready when SHTF!
Remember that this list only contains some of the basics. Your situation, and type of vehicle will both play a huge role in preparing for automotive repair in a TEOTWAWKI scenario. The best advice I can offer is to regularly check the fluid levels on your vehicle. Look for, and repair any leaks as soon as they are noticed to prevent further damage. Get a service manual for your vehicle its value is immeasurable! Familiarize yourself with common automotive problems, and ways to correct those problems! I hope this list is helpful, and that you are prepared when, and if your bug out vehicle breaks down!
Denninger: The Real Problem With America: Morality
Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008. (Thanks to Stephen M. for the link.)
Items from The Economatrix: