Precious Metals Month in Review, by Steven Cochran

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins. Every month, we’ll take a look at the “month that was” in precious metals, covering everything from price action to the information that’s driving the numbers.

January in Precious Metals

December closed on the usual down note as the last bit of tax-related selling went through, but January started off strong, as the big commodities index funds had to buy gold to meet new percentages. The index rebalancing only added fuel to an oversold gold market, as the price jumped $30 in 48 hours. Part of the reason for gold’s very good month may have been more people realizing that the stock market and real estate were in a bubble, with even National Public Radio running pieces on the QE-inflated stock market. In a Fox Business interview, Peter Schiff put to words the unease that many may be feeling about the phony recovery when he said, “We have a lousy economy, and the Fed is patching it by creating inflation.” “We are spending all this money that the Fed is creating. That IS inflation… if the Fed were ever to do the right thing, and let interest rates go up, and shrink its balance sheet, the market would implode.

On January 6th, someone tried to stop gold’s rally by selling 400,000 ounces worth of gold contracts in the space of ONE second. It only had a temporary effect though, as the market had rallied even higher two days later, into the high $1,240s level. Violence in Thailand, Egypt, and Syria lend safe haven support to gold. Mining companies began releasing reports around this time for the fourth quarter of 2013, showing increased production and level expenses. This was/is from a practice called “high grading,” where the miners are only working the purest veins in order to recover a higher amount of gold per ton of ore processed. This reduces expenses per ounce of gold mined in the short term, but it lowers the overall life of the mine. When no “good” ore is left to mix in with the low grade ore, the mines become unprofitable and are shut down, leaving the low-grade gold in the ground.

By January 17, gold prices were at a five-week high of $1,254/oz. This was the same day that Deutsche Bank, the largest bank in Germany, announced that it was the subject of an investigation by Germany’s highest regulator into currency, gold, and silver manipulation, and that it would be quitting its involvement in the London Gold Fix. The London gold fix is a twice-daily conference call between five of the world’s largest banks, where they “fix” the benchmark rate of gold. This benchmark is used in trillions of dollars of transactions, including hedge funds and gold purchases by central banks. The president of Bafin, Germany’s top regulatory agency, said that the manipulation in currency rates and gold may be larger than the LIBOR scandal.

On January 23, strikes in South Africa against the platinum mining companies began, halting production of 70% of global platinum supply. Prices weren’t affected much, as the mining companies had stockpiled six weeks of above-ground ore. More important for gold that day was Pakistan banning gold imports for 30 days. This was the second time since August it had done this to prevent the outflow of dollars from its economy. Of the four metric tons of gold imported into Pakistan in the last six months, more than 25% of it was smuggled into India. This caused gold to post its biggest one-day jump in three months, hitting a two month high of $1,279, and closing at $1,270/oz.

Another big story in January was the news that Germany only repatriated five tons of gold from the Fed in all of 2013, and that the bars were melted down and recast by the Fed before they were given to the Germans. Germany only got 35 tons back from France, which is less than six hours away from the Bundesbank’s vaults in Frankfurt.

In the last week of January, citizens in Cyprus rioted at the headquarters of the Bank of Cyprus, demanding their money back after they were “bailed in” against their will. This group of over 8,000 people have been trying since November 2012 to get their money back.

The last week in January also saw money pouring out of emerging market economies ahead of the FOMC meeting, as Indonesia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, among others, saw their currencies hitting multi-year lows. Even Russia was caught in the currency devaluation as foreign investors scrambled for dollars to bring money back home. Combined with a high-yield “trust fund” in China almost defaulting and setting off a chain reaction, investors had had enough and pulled out. This caused a big safe haven demand for gold, which spiked to a 10-week high of $1,279/oz. This all contributed to the safe haven demand gold saw this month.

Another factor was the demand in Asia ahead of the Chinese New Year on January 31st. Asian demand was high, but not quite as high as expected. This may have been because buyers went bargain-shopping on the $1,186 low in late December.

As expected, the Fed reduced its monthly quantitative easing program by $10 billion, meaning that “only” $65 billion would be created from thin air to buy bonds and mortgage-backed securities from Wall Street banks in February. This put more pressure on the emerging market economies, who were just last year complaining that the U.S. was conducting a “currency war” against them by flooding the market with money. Now that the money spigot is being closed, their economies, which had become dependent on the Fed’s liquidity, are suffering withdrawals.

The month closed out with central banks in India, South Africa, and Turkey making emergency rate hikes to stop runaway devaluation of their currencies. This helped the situation enough for panic to ease. Consumer-fueled fourth quarter GDP in the U.S. showed 3.3% growth, which helped Wall Street break a losing streak and spark profit-taking in precious metals.

Market Buzz

Indian Finance Minister, P. Chidambaram , said on January 27, that the easing of restrictions on gold imports into the country would be reviewed at the end of the fiscal year on March 31st. Any action would be conditioned on how far the reduction in the Current Account Balance has progressed. The government is under increasing pressure to ease the draconian restrictions on importing gold to what has traditionally been the world’s largest gold consuming country.

On CNBC, Peter Schiff declared, “The Fed is trapped; buy gold now.” While the Fed did taper this month, Schiff’s assertion that it has no exit strategy and will have to continue at least some money printing may very well prove true (just before interest rates rise enough to prevent the Federal government from making interest payments on the debt.)

Eric Sprotttakes a look at the April gold take-down and the explosion of physical demand the paper manipulators didn’t expect. He runs the numbers and shows that if the Indian government hadn’t enacted extreme restrictions on gold imports, global demand would have outstripped all supply.

Our good friend at the Perth Mint Bullion Blog have an article on how “Gold Can Never Be In A Bubble,” a thought-provoking piece that’s well worth the read. Also, I take a look at the mainstream media’s MOPE over how China is holding a record $1.3 trillion in U.S. debt and at putting it into perspective. If we’re told that the world economy will explode if China tries to sell off its U.S. debt holdings, how are we supposed to believe that the Fed can unwind a substantially larger balance sheet?

On the Retail Front

Speculators in London and New York may not think gold and silver are worth holding, but everyday people on the street sure do! The Royal Mint ran out of 2014 gold Sovereign coins two days after launch, and sold suppliers that it would take until the end of the month to restock. The U.S. Mint sold over 3 million American Silver Eagles the first two days of sales, and rationed them for the entire month. Since the Mint had two extra weeks this year to make the initial stock of Silver Eagles, some wonder if it was a government-mandated ploy to prevent another record-breaking January for the popular bullion coin. January 2012 sales topped 6.1 million coins, and January 2013 sales hit 7.49 million before the Mint ran completely out.

Speaking of the U.S. Mint, it reported that profits on bullion sales more than doubled in 2013, up 108.8%. An all-time record of over 42.6 million Silver Eagles were sold before supplies were cut off on December 9th, and nearly 1.1 million ounces of gold bullion Eagles and Buffaloes were sold. The Perth Mint in Australia reported working three shifts in an attempt to meet gold and silver demand. Gold sales for 2013 were up by 41% and silver sales were up by 33%.

In Russia, Nomos Bank ,a major private bank, revealed that it had purchased close to 100 metric tons of gold and nearly 400 metric tons of silver to sell to its customers through its branch offices. Japan’s largest bullion dealer reported that gold sales were up 63% in 2013, as Japanese citizens prepare for the Abenomics QE designed to raise interest rates to 2% in two years. If they can stop inflation rising and not overshoot their target, they will be the first central bank to ever pull that off.

Looking Ahead

February will start out slow for gold, as Asian demand will be soft after the spending spree for Chinese New Year. The U.S. stock market hasn’t seen a real correction in over two years, so is past due, especially after a Fed-fueled 30% gain last year. In the short term, the two major factors that would cause a run on gold is the emerging markets resuming a meltdown and China’s “shadow banking” crisis blowing up into a Lehman Brothers-type event. Western analysts are warning that the Chinese government has likely made things worse by bailing out the “Credit Equals Gold” high-yield trust, which reinforces expectations that the PBOC will ride to the rescue and make all investors in risky loan deals whole.

Indonesia carried out its ban on the export of unprocessed ore, despite the shortage of refiners. That means that 4% of global gold production has just been halted. On top of the requirement that all ore be refined in-country, the government is slapping a 20% tax on exports. The mining companies have flat refused to pay it, and have halted production. This is a huge deal in copper, nickel, and tin. Rising prices in these base metals will help silver and the platinum group metals.



Guest Article: When Preps Become Poison, by S.B.

As desert-based urban preppers, my wife and I have invested a lot of research, time, and expenses building up a substantial supply of food, water, household supplies, medications, fuel, alternative power, and home defense resources. We’ve studied, we’ve trained, we’ve networked with like-minded families, and we’ve done our best to be ready for what increasingly seems to be the inevitable.

And then things changed.

Roughly four years ago I began experiencing unexplained episodes of debilitating vertigo, ear ringing, hyper sensitivity to sound, hearing loss, and fullness in my left ear, similar to that feeling you get when you’ve been swimming and your ears get full of water. Five ENT doctors later I was finally diagnosed with Meniere’s Disease– a rare and chronic autoimmune affliction to the endolymphatic components of the ear that manage the moisture and fluid content of the inner ear. Meniere’s can affect either one or both ears. Fortunately only myleft ear is affected at this time.

There is no cure for Meniere’s; there are only ways to mitigate the potential for episodes and symptoms. The primary treatment is the elimination of salt in the diet and the body. Salt causes the body to hold fluids, so my primary preventative treatment is to severely restrict my salt intake and to take a diuretic to help rid the body of excess salt. All this came as a surprise to me as it was rare that I used a saltshaker. One of the secondary treatments is allergy management; allergies cause inflammation and inflammation leads to increase in mucous and fluids in the body, especially the sinus cavities and ears.

At the end of four days of allergy testing for nearly 200 potential allergens, we found that I was allergic to eggs, soy, and an assortment of trees and weeds. Yes, those healthy egg white and spinach omelets I ate almost everyday for breakfast are now history. As for soy, I had no idea so many items from food to skin care products to interior car parts and bedding contain soy. Most of the store-bought meat we eat is fed and raised on soy products as well.

To my wife’s credit, our food preps were very well diversified with the staples of bulk packed buckets of rice, beans, flour, grains and pasta, as well as canned foods and supplemental spices and treats to give variety to the bulk items. We also had about 1/3 of our food preps in the form of #10 cans of freeze dried meals, meats, TVP (soy), fruits, and vegetables. Herein lies the problem and the point where many of our preps became poisonous for me.

It’s highly unlikely you’ll ever develop Menieres, but what about high blood pressure or other chronic illnesses and allergies that can force you to not only change your diet but also your lifestyle?

Not all freeze dried foods are created equal. When it comes to salt and soy I can tell you that most of the full meal products contain two to four times more salt per serving than the USDA Recommended Daily Allowance of sodium, which is 2400mg for healthy people and much less for someone with high blood pressure or Menieres.

Ideally, we’d all eat locally or personally-grown, whole foods and meats everyday, but that may not be the reality in a SHTF scenario for those who do not live in rural areas. In our plan to build a diversified larder, it was smart to keep an ample storage of quick, easy, “add water and go” dehydrated meals. We still do store these. However, very little of that is of use to me personally now, except in miniscule servings.

As we rotate through our canned foods, my wife (being our home food planner and nutrition expert) replaces as much of our food stores as possible with “low to no sodium” and “no soy” options. For instance, something as simple as canned tomatoes can range from 20mg of sodium per can to 400mg per can. Canned soup, beans, and a host of other items have a wide range of sodium levels, as well.

The moral of this story is the importance of thinking about your age, your health, and how your health and nutrition requirements might change unexpectedly over the course of your life and your prepping. I had no idea or warning my health would change so suddenly and unexpectedly and chances are you have no idea what is in store for you either. Taking a close look at the health patterns of your blood relatives is a good start, since many maladies such as high blood pressure and heart issues are hereditary. Most importantly, before you buy a pallet of survival rations you should definitely read the labels and think about what in that package might become your poison someday.





Letter Re: Nixtmalization of Corn

Hugh,

Seasoned readers of Survivalblog may remember a letter on May 28, 2012 referring to “Optimized Corn” presented by ShepherdFarmerGeek. This is a very important article, since it discusses how to transform corn (generally regarded as nutritionally inferior) into a really great source of nutrients. This gringo had no clue what this was all about, but I did “know” corn was Baaaaaad. It is not so, however. The process is called nixtamalization (or liming) and was practiced by early Mexican cultures, but was omitted by Europeans in their preparation of the grain. This mistake was the root cause of Pellagra and other dietary based maladies. I recently ran across a very informative video demonstrating the liming process and the making of both masa and tortillas. Readers may check it in this video: Nixtamalization of Corn to maximize the utilization of its nutrients – M.E.



Economics and Investing:

Russian Bank Halts All Cash Withdrawals – BR

And the Brits’ government isn’t fairing any better than us: Queen down to her last million due to courtiers’ overspending, report finds – GP

Restaurant Owners Fight Rise in Minimum Wage for Tipped Workers – L.

Items from The Economatrix:

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: World Risks Deflationary Shock As BRICS Puncture Credit Bubbles

In A Typhoon, Even Pigs Can Fly (For A While)

No, The Plunge In Home Sales Was “Not” Due To Cold Weather

Initial Jobless Claims Miss; Back To Levels First Seen 6 Months Ago



Odds ‘n Sods:

We’ve linked to Rural Revolution before, and now Patrice Lewis has another entry at WND worth reading: The burgeoning underground economy

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This Isn’t Your Average Smash-And-Grab – This One Took Under a Minute, Netted $70K in Stolen Guns and Has the Feds Involved. – K.

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Startup Thinks Its Battery Will Solve Renewable Energy’s Big Flaw – RBS

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While not in the US yet, this may be the future of Big Cities: A ban on autos? Major cities consider going carless

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BR sent in the link to this disturbing article: FBI Appears To Have Collected Tormail’s Entire Email Database… And It’s Using It. . Particularly disturbing is this quote:

“Even if it’s getting a warrant to search, it’s now searching its own database, rather than having to go out to get the information from others who might challenge the requests.”

o o o

BR also sent this video in: Rear Admiral Lee Addresses Restrictive Regulations on Religion I have seen this video before, but it is powerful and moving.

o o o

GP sent in this blog post that contains link to pictures of the Ukraine revolution as it is unfolding.



Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“Go to now, ye rich men, weep and howl for your miseries that shall come upon you. Your riches are corrupted, and your garments are motheaten. Your gold and silver is cankered; and the rust of them shall be a witness against you, and shall eat your flesh as it were fire. Ye have heaped treasure together for the last days. Behold, the hire of the labourers who have reaped down your fields, which is of you kept back by fraud, crieth: and the cries of them which have reaped are entered into the ears of the Lord of sabaoth. Ye have lived in pleasure on the earth, and been wanton; ye have nourished your hearts, as in a day of slaughter. Ye have condemned and killed the just; and he doth not resist you.” James 5:1-6 (KJV)



Notes from HJL:

February 1st is the anniversary of the secession of Texas from the United States in 1861. A State Convention considering secession opened in Austin on January 28th, 1861 and on February 1st, by a vote of 166 to 8, adopted an Ordinance of Secession from the United States. It’s important to note that not all Texans favored this act. Though the state Governor, Sam Houston, was loyal to the union, he refused offers from President Lincoln to keep him in office and was subsequently deposed as governor.

February 1st is also the day that the Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated over Texas and Louisiana, killing all seven crew members as it reentered Earth’s atmosphere.



Four New Prizes for Round 51 Bring the Prize Total to $10,500!

Starting with Round 51, the fine folks at SurvivalBased.com are donating a $500 gift certificate to the Third Place prize winner of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. Be sure to visit their web site and check out their full line of preparedness gear, and their blog.

Also starting with Round 51, TexasgiBrass.com a is kindly providing a $300 gift certificate for first place and a $150 gift certificate for second place for the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The company sells full military specification once-fired brass for reloaders. Note that even if you don’t reload, this is excellent brass to provide in trade to your local commercial reloader or to keep on hand for bartering with home-based reloaders.

And finally, Organized Prepper, LLC is providing a $500 gift certificate for second place for the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. Organized Prepper, LLC is a family run organization based in Texas dedicated to providing information and supplies to those who would like to be more prepared for whatever curve-balls the universe wants to throw at them.

These three new prizes from bring the combined value of the top three prize packages to more that $10,500. Our sincere thanks to SurvivalBased.com and to Clyde and Gayle Landis, the owners of of TexasgiBrass.com!



Resource Managment – Water, by Z.H.T.

One of the reasons that I love watching movies and reading books, particularly those of the apocalyptic or post-apocalyptic variety, is because I occasionally learn a little tid-bit of useful knowledge that may one day benefit me.

One of my favorite movies and novels of this genre is “The Road” by Cormac McCarthy. While it is a fantastically bleak and powerful work, it still provided me a teaching moment that has been invaluable. In one of the opening scenes of the movie, we see that something dire has happened. Though we are never told what it is, we assume that it is either the precursor to, or is the extinction event itself, that drives the plot of this movie. The dad, whose name we are never told, immediately fills any basin in the house with water. He stops up the sinks and tubs. He fills any and all containers with water.

Additionally, we learn that he keeps his family inside his home, blocks windows, locks doors, but most importantly, keeps an extremely low profile in order to avoid any attention from the outside. We aren’t told if he, his wife, and his child stay inside 100% of the time, but we do know that the wife is slowly driven crazy with such a meager existence. We also learn that it is understood that life outside is death, for whatever reason, as she eventually departs and is never seen again.

What I find interesting is the relationship between the man’s actions early in the movie and his ability to outlast most everyone else. It’s obvious that his ability to avoid confrontation as well as make quick decisions provided great dividends in the future. Simply said, his willingness to stay bunkered down in his house, despite being well-equipped, served him greatly. While there may have been many other ancillary reasons, it can be safely assumed that riding out the storm was the most important and intelligent thing he could have done. Yet, without the proper resources, it would have led to death just as the outside world also promised. However, he was able to take stock of what he had, maximize it, and realize that he didn’t have to survive forever on these items. He just had to survive everyone else.

How was he able to do this when it was obvious that he hadn’t taken any great pains to prepare, as we have so discussed? How would I be able to apply this to my own situation, should the circumstances of this movie arrive at my doorstep? Going back to the single action that I identified earlier. He immediately stopped what he was doing and maximized the single most important resource he would need to survive and outlast. He stockpiled water.

Ever since I saw this movie, almost a decade ago, that one moment has stuck with me. This was before I even considered myself a casual prepper. I saw what he did, and I applied it to my checklist of things to do in the event of any emergency. To be fair, I had some experience with this exact problem back when I was a teenager. My area was devastated by a large F4 tornado that went right through my homestead. We lived on top of a hill surrounded by woodland. The downed trees trapped us on top of the mountain for several weeks. It became evident what resource was truly precious after about 3 days. Sure, we were down to eating things for meals that we would never have normally considered “dinner”– potted meat and canned tomatoes, for instance. Still, we were fed. What we didn’t have was water. See, living on top of a hill, we had a booster pump to supply water to us. With no electricity, we had no water. It took two days to drink all the sodas and juices. After two days of profuse sweating and hard work, it was hard to be around each other due to a lack of hygiene. The hard work and sweating was affecting the hydration of our bodies without pure water around. That isn’t to say we were in any danger of dying or anything. We weren’t. We had friends come help us after a day or two, but it has always stuck with me how quickly the water was gone, how precious it is, and just how much a human needs it to function.

It doesn’t take much time in researching other common natural and unnatural disasters to see what is the number one supply brought in by aid programs. Additionally, after disasters, the most common cause of sickness and death (other than trauma) is diseases through contaminated water supplies or dehydration itself. According to some quick research, the human man needs around three liters a day just to function. A woman needs a little less at 2.2 liters. As everyone knows, it only takes about 48 hours to die of dehydration, and that doesn’t cover the extra needed by people under physical duress. Additionally, water is needed for more than drinking. It’s needed for waste control, hygiene, and other things. It doesn’t take a genius to do some simple math to come up with the needs for your family on a day or month basis. For my family of five , which includes my wife, me, and three children, let’s say we need 12 liters or a little over 3 gallons a dayor around 90 gallons a month;ut 100 is a nice round number, so let’s use that number instead. We need 100 gallons a month for consumption alone. Additionally, I started thinking about how much time a family might need to buy themselves, hunkered down, to wait it out. As we have seen aftermany disasters, researchers’ numbers suggest that when supplies dry up, there is a high death rate right at 30 days. That number sounds good to me. Let’s go with it. We want to stay bunkered for 30 days in typical urban America. Our critical resource is water, so we need a minimum of 100 gallons for consumption alone. 

With that in mind, I started wondering about all the different ways that you could meet this demand. Keep in mind that I am considering only people living in urban areas where you have people living next door and across the street. You don’t have a water supply such as a stream or river that you can easily get to, and if you could, you wouldn’t because you don’t want to expose yourself to the outside. So, I thought of several ways to bunker up and meet your water quota. You could store it last minute using available containers. You could buy a supply of water. You could source water from the rain or try recovering the water with a “closed loop” approach. Immediately, I (and I know you) identify potential problems with each of these solutions. All you smart people are already thinking, “You will need a combination of these”. Well, for those that aren’t so savvy, let’s talk it out.

Storing Water from the Tap in Available Basins

Ironically, I was in the shower the other day when this topic came up. I called my wife into the bathroom and asked her how much water we could possibly have on hand, in the event of an emergency. Make the assumption that we wanted to turn the lights off, lock the doors, and pretend no one was home in order to avoid any conflict. What was our capacity? What would we have on hand? How long would that buy us. Lastly, how would that compare to the people around us, who ultimately may become the most dangerous of adversaries. Now, I understand that your neighbors that you have known for 10 years aren’t going to turn into crazies over night. Nor do I believe in zombies. However, let’s make the assumption that whatever is outside is bad, and you would prefer to stay indoors at all times. So, we added it up quickly:

  • We have two bath tubs, each able to hold approx 30 gallons; that is 60 gallons,
  • We have three sinks, one of them a double sink. Each holds an average of one gallon; so, let’s assume that is four gallons,
  • Around the house, we have several pots and pans, buckets, coolers, water coolers, and other containers. If I were to use these, I would guess I could have another 50 gallons, and
  • I have 2.5 cases of bottled water; each case contains 24 bottles that hold about 0.125 gallons. Let’s round that to 7.5 gallons of water

That gives us a total of 120 gallons or 450 liters, give or take. So, in an absolute best case situation (no losses do to leakage, evaporation, or use for other purposes, such as cleaning or sanitation), my family of 5 could stay indoors for 37 days. Let that sink in. A little over a month on your internal supplies alone. Of course, that’s assuming that you jumped on the water- saving effort immediately, had containers, and had some stock of bottled water. 

Now, I know many of you are saying that this is an over simplified example, and you would be correct. I will address some of the holes in my logic, but ultimately that 37 day estimate is fairly accurate or possibly on the high side. While I can’t speak on every town and city in America, it can safely be assumed that you will still have line pressure from your city supply (or whatever utilities you have) for several days, but, so will everyone else. That could be a good or a bad thing. Sure, you could store more water by going out and getting more containers, but that would defeat the objective of being able to avoid danger. 

Additionally, we discount the ability to source outside sources. Even if at some point, things will slow down and you would have the ability to seek an outside water supply, you wouldn’t want to attempt this. Not only does it go against the purpose of the exercise, but consider that the further into this apocalyptic event we go, the more desperate people will be for nearly anything of value. You may live next to a perfectly good water supply. But so do everyone else around you. Again, the name of the game is to wait it out. 

Yet, when reviewing this 37 day estimate and how it would fair in waiting out the storm, all I could think was that the average household has the same capability. That doesn’t mean the average household would exerciseapproach our own “lockdown” approach, but it does certainly mean that “waiting them out” for an appreciable amount of time isn’t going to happen. We would need a lot more water to buy us a lot more time. Additionally, these open air containers would be severely susceptible to leakage, contamination, and evaporation.

Buying an Appreciable Water Supply

Obviously, the easiest way to fix this problem would be to supplement my stores of bottled water. While you can’t put a price on safety and your welfare, the fact remains that bottled water is incredibly expensive. Okay, I know everyone is raising their eyebrows at me. It’s just bottled water! Are you that cheap? Well, we aren’t talking about needing a case or two. We are talking about needing 100 gallons. Just a quick Internet search shows that you can buy a gallon of water for $5.70. So, you could spend $570 dollars and only buy yourself a month worth of water. Where are you going to store it? I sure don’t have a place for that much water. Maybe you do. If you do, you either have no kids or a lot bigger home than me. I know these people exist; good for them. We have seen them on those TV shows. When money isn’t an issue, you can do these things. I can’t. Money and space aside, this is a fantastic option for many reasons. Perhaps the best reason is that the water is sealed and impervious to becoming contaminated. Additionally, you will not have any losses from evaporation or leakage. 

Rainwater Collection

What about rainwater collection? Ah, now we are getting somewhere! Again, let’s make the assumption that you can safely collect water without exposing yourself to others. What do you have in which to collect water? We added all the collection containers we have in the list above. Even if we used every cup and bowl we had and could store 100 gallons, the amount of rainfall is the true driver. Additionally, it has less to do with available volume of your containers than the surface area of the collector. In my state of Alabama, the rainfall averages around 65 inches per year. Let’s say that’s 5.5 inches a month, since we are talking in terms of days and months. Additionally, the heaviest rain we might ever see is around five inches overa period of three days. Again, another nice number when we contemplate the time of dehydration being around three days. Five inches is about 1/6 the height of the average 5-gallon bucket. We said that we had the ability to store 100 gallons total, which is equivalent to 20 five- gallon buckets. That rain collection could give us around another 20 gallons, which is not even good enough for another two days. 

Again, rainwater collection is a complicated formula of available basins and rainfall. The other potential answer is the application of cisterns. For example, for under $500 you can add onto your house a rain water collection system, which will collect all the water from your roof into a collection tank via a “T” added into your drain spouts. While you can add as big of a basin as you like, the average system uses a 40 to 50 gallon drum. My father uses one of these for his garden, and it took one large rain to completely fill it up.. Going back to our math we used in the above paragraph, if the weather averaged three rains a month you would collect 150 gallons a month. This if you quickly and efficiently maximized the storage. 

Which means, without taking losses in the system into consideration, you would be able to sustain yourself with a rainwater collection system indefinitely, as long as you have the amount of rainfall we have in soggy Alabama. There are some assumptions in this statement.. First, it assumes you experience AVERAGE rainfall and that the water is usable and not tainted. Alabama is a very moist climate. In fact, Alabama leads the nation in rainfall. Even here we can go through severe dry spells over the period of a month. In much of the country, the rainfall for the year is nearly nonexistent. Arizona, for example, has a 24 inch per year average. Ohio has an average of 47 inches, while Maryland checks in at 50 inches of rainfall. In fact, most of the nation experiences an average of 30 inches or more rainfall per year. So, our use of Alabama’s rainfall is a best case scenario. On the average, you would be lucky to experience half of the rainfall we have in Alabama, so you would still need to supplement your rainwater collection with a minimum of 15 gallons of water per month sourced from somewhere else, or you would have to expand the capacity expected from a single rainwater collection system. Again, it’s not really a problem to expand. You just need another roof and another rainwater collection system as well as luck that you don’t go through a dry spell. Additionally, if you already had this system set up, you would possibly have an instant 50 gallon surplus in addition to anything else you had on hand. 

Water Recovery

Obviously, the best answer is a “closed loop” system, or as near to it as you could reasonably achieve. That is, recovering used water from urine, sweat, and other by-products. By “best” I mean efficiency. You could buy or design a tool to do all the work for you, but, unless you have developed “still suit” technology (like the one in Herbert’s “Dune”), there is virtually no way to close the system entirely. The best you could hope for is to recover water from urine. While this is certainly achievable, it departs from the more simplistic methods listed above. You either have to have a filtration system on hand (which can be quite expensive), or you have to build your own. Even this isn’t a closed loop system because you will still lose a significant amount of water per day through respiration and sweat, just as you would lose much of your water to evaporation. A quick search shows that a human produces around 0.8 liters of urine. This means, at best, you could only recover 40% of your daily water intake, not taking into account other minerals in the urine that would need to be filtered out. That’s not much water to collect, but it is more than the average person would be able to recover. And, we said from the beginning that we wouldn’t be trying to survive forever on what we had in our home; we just want to survive LONG ENOUGH. After all, when the traffic dies down, procuring supplies such as water will be easy, but until then you won’t have to subject yourself to the dangers outside. Of course the downside is that you are drinking your own urine. Okay, I can get around that idea, but with a homemade system (even with off the shelf systems) you can run the risk of poisoning yourself because of some filtering error. 

Conclusion

So, where does that leave us? Hopefully you have at least identified which of these techniques would work for you. At a minimum, I hope we have learned that while having guns and dehydrated food is great, it isn’t the resource we need every day in great supply.

In a situation where you are waiting out the outside world, it would ultimately be nice to have enough water stored so you don’t have to worry about it. Chances are, if you are reading this, you have either handled your water issues or at least considered it. Many have thousands of gallons stored away. I have neither the money to buy it nor the space to store it. If you are like me, we can maximize our in-home capacity as much as possible.. After reviewing the prospective techniques and tactics above, it seems fairly intuitive that the average person would have to rely on multiple, if not all, of the techniques. To be successful, a person would have to immediately identify the problem at hand and set in motion a plan to stock up and sustain the one most basic and essential commodity that humans need and need in vast quantities. Like we noted, my family alone would need 12 liters or 3 gallons a day just for consumption in normal operating environments. That doesn’t take into account the needs for sanitation and hygiene which really are extensive, especially with three kids. Perhaps most importantly, this doesn’t take into consideration the potential losses to evaporation and stagnation. It’s hard to put a number on that for every locale, but you can reasonably take the 100 gallons need for consumption and add a 20% buffer to account for losses. Add in another 50 gallons for miscellaneous sanitation and other uses and you would need 170 gallons a month, which means that my home would need to essentially do everything listed. We would need to immediately store as much water as we could in bathtubs, sinks, bottles, and buckets. We would need at least one rainwater collection device capable of collecting 50 gallons per month. Additionally, we would also need to be able to recover 20% of our urine water. All of these actions would just meet our basic needs on an average month. The easiest solution to exceed our break-even point would be to stockpile more sealed containers of water. 

That’s a pretty razor-thin edge. When you have a family, the edge is not where you would prefer it be. Ideally, you want a nice cushion when it comes to consumables, particularly water. So, the logical answer is that you would need the combination of at least two of the proposed techniques.  I don’t know about you, but I really don’t want to drink my or my kids’ pee. It’s relative efficiency is low. So (to me) it’s a great long term solution, but not in the timeline we are talking about. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t do it; I would,but it wouldn’t be my preference. In terms of buying a water supply, I have neither the room nor the cash to go out and buy 100 gallons of bottled water. I do have some on hand, and I have no problem buying a little at a time to store as I have room. I have the option, as does everyone, of storing water in available open air containers, but I don’t necessarily like this technique because it isn’t efficient due to leaks, evaporation, and difficulty keeping the water viable. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a great last ditch effort or a way to supplement your own supply. In particular, this is probably the best way to provide yourself a “general use” supply of water. A rainwater collection device is almost a necessity. It does cost a little money, but it easily collects and stores water with no effort from you. It is renewable as long as it rains, but may be unreliable without dependable rainfall. Depending upon the reasons for bunkering down, the water could be useless. It may be a stretch, but if radiation or chemical warfare is the concern, you’re probably dead anyway. 

There are many combinations of these four different processes. I realize that everyone’s situation is different. We really only considered one particular situation–the typical urban American home. Considering that’s where the vast majority of American’s live, I believe the example is pertinent. It’s important to understand what your situation is. In mine, rainfall usually isn’t a problem. With the combination of 50 gallons of bottled water and a rainwater collection system, I would get by for a month. The point is, you have to realize that water is ultimately the most valuable resource. It’s the only resource you must have in great supply and one you can’t go very long without. In a situation where you have identified that you want to wait out the storm, you have to take steps to have enough of this resource or a way to collect and use it without exposing yourself to the outside world. 

Just as reading a book taught me one small thing, hopefully this article will get you thinking on how best to prepare yourself with the means to supply your family with water while waiting “it” out.



Letter Re: Walmart and Augason Emergency Food Supplies

Welcome Hugh,

Walmart is carrying Augason Farms in their store and has carried it in our local store for a couple of years.

The excellent thing about Augason Farms is their large selection of Certified Gluten Free items, for those of us who need to look for those items. Walmart does not carry many of those in their stores, but they can be ordered through Walmart/Sams. Costco also offers some items online and in stores, often with free shipping.

If you sign up at Augason Farm’s website or “friend” them on social media, you’ll see they have a lot of really nice promotions. I’ve ordered directly from them and saved 30 to 40% off. With their very reasonable shipping, it’s cheaper than Walmart. Plus, on their website, you can get a lot of recipe ideas as well as excellent product quality and service. – JN



Three Letters Re: A Science Based Technique for Seasoning Cast Iron

Dear HJL,

Three quick comments about your cast iron seasoning techniques:

1. I don’t think you are abusing your pans.

2. I would suggest not using Canola Oil, since it is the result of genetic modification and “big food” marketing (Canada Oil Low Acid or “CanOLA“.

3. To re-season my cast iron, I generally just cook up a big batch of bacon.

Thanks – Mike



Letter: LDS Canneries

With the changes at the LDS canneries, I wanted to share some other sources for bulk wheat and grains. For folks who live and around SW Montana don’t forget that Wheat Montana has it’s own retail store where one can buy 50lb bags or wheat berries and flour. It is located in Three Forks, MT which is in SW part of the state.. Wheat Montana is also the wheat berry supplier for WalMart if you’ve never heard of them. They also sell pre-package six-gallon buckets for long term storage, as well as the buckets, gamma lids, and oxygen absorbers for those who may want to do it themselves. When I compared the prices for wheat berries several years ago, the prices were very close to what it was at the LDS canneries. By the way, the “instore” price is NOT the same price as what’s listed online; it’s always cheaper. Azure Standard is another source we use. They sell in bulk and also have a good variety of organic foods as well. They offer free delivery to most of the Redoubt once a month, and they will also ship via UPS as well. We’ve been very happy with them, and their prices are fair. Thanks, long time SB reader, Fletch



Economics and Investing:

Mike sent in this: The Republican governor of Michigan has proposed using immigrants to revitalize Detroit. 50,000 of them over five years.

The Bank of Union, El Reno, OK, Becomes Second Bank Failure of 2014– G.G.

And in the middle of winter: Scott Walker pledges millions of dollars to ease propane shortage – M.

Items from The Economatrix:

Yellen Will Reverse The Taper: Schiff

Fed Poised For $10 Billion Taper As Bernanke Bids Adieu

Why Millions Of Americans Will Never Retire: How The Prospect Of Retirement Went From A realistic Goal To An Outrageous Dream For Most American Families.

Buckle Up! 2014 Will Be A Bumpy Ride



Odds ‘n Sods:

Here is a video on the Do’s and Don’ts When Stopped By Police and Carrying a Firearm featuring Massad Ayoob – M.A.

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G.P. sent in this link on making a paracord pouch for your survival tin.

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For those interested in ballistics, K. sent in this link to JBM Ballistics.

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Is Being Self-Sufficient A Threat To Society?J.W. sent in this link on one man’s fight with the Planning & Inspections Department.

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RC sends in this link from the American Bible Society. The Most and Least Bible-Minded Cities in America. Something to think about as you plan where your retreat location needs to be.