Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 46 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300 and 10 TAPCO polymer magazines (5 AR and 5 AK) courtesy of Armageddon Armory, E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials and F.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value. E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value), and F.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 46 ends on May 31st so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Block Training for the Greatest Depression by JLee

The term "The Greatest Depression" comes from Gerald Celente, an economic trends forecaster.  I heard him use this term a few years ago in an interview he did on the Alex Jones Show.  Essentially, there never has been an economic recovery, but there has been a lot of unemployment and many former workers have fallen completely off of the map and are no longer counted in the Federal Unemployment Statistics.  TRILLIONS of dollars have been printed since the Economic Downturn of 2008 in which the housing bubble went bust.

This write-up is predicated on the fact that over $16 Trillion has gone unaccounted for (the number $16 trillion is known due to the partial audit conducted on the Federal Reserve which was put in to the Dodd-Frank Bill).  Several prominent traders and economists (Max Keiser and John Williams of Shadowstats.com to name a few) have estimated that the time to hyperinflation is near.  Max Keiser estimates we have until April yet John Williams says May 2014.  The reasons why we are in this mess financially are numerous and it is well within the grasp of anyone who chooses to read this to find your own conclusions.  I personally believe this all started with the repeal of Glass-Steagall, then the gradual lowering of interest rates by the Fed which leads to wider speculation in the markets, which lead to the Crash of 2008, which led to money printed essentially at 0% for zombiebanks, which has led to an even greater derivatives bubble which sooner than later will pop and with it so will the global economy.  It should also be noted that US Treasuries buying is at a level never seen before, real unemployment is at 20+ percent, and the VIX (Volatility Index) is extremely low, the price of precious metals is being undervalued while yet the purchase of gold and silver is astronomical, and the Dow-Jones index of the stock market is over 14,000, and the Federal Reserve is pumping $85 billion dollars in to the economy each month.  To me, this all spells a set-up.

So, how should one prepare?  First off, have some firearms and know how to use them.  I say a minimum of 1,000 rounds per weapon is necessary.  Next, have a good water filter, and a way to store treated water along with a minimum of six months of stored food per person in your family.  But physically, it is important to be prepared for the worst case scenario and that means preparing your body efficiently and intelligently. 

The following is the plan I have devised, I welcome feedback from anyone who has questions about it.

Block I (4 weeks)
Monday – 45 minutes of Cardiac Output + Weights
Tuesday – HRIT Walking Lunges – see progression below
Wednesday – 45 minutes of Cardiac Output
Thursday – HRIT Walking Lunges – see progression below
Friday – 45 minutes of Cardiac Output + Weights
Saturday – 90 minutes of Cardiac Efficiency
Sunday – Rest

Cardiac Output – Purpose – to increase the strength of the heart, primarily strength of the left ventricle – How – keeping heart rates between 130-140 beats per minute (bpm) – There is a possibility that this method creates hyperplasia of muscle fibers of the heart (splitting in two creating more muscle fibers) yet will not increase the actual size of the chamber.

Cardiac Efficiency – Purpose – increases the elasticity of the left ventricle of the heart, thereby increasing stroke volume (efficiency of the heart).  This method of training is essential for improving resting heart rate as well as lowering blood pressure.  The lower the resting heart rate, the less the heart has to work even at higher heart rates.

HRIT – Stands for High Resistance Interval Training – Some methods of interval training involve high efforts for short periods of time, this method is the opposite.  High Effort for a long period of time.  I have 2 preferred methods for doing this, spin bike with the resistance turned up, or walking lunges with a 20# weight vest on (or even get a link of 3/8 chain and put that behind your neck).  ****In between each repetition of lunge, completely relax, the same goes for if you use a spinbike, come to a complete rest before you peddle each time.  Result – Increased mitochondrial density of the effected musculature.  Since you will be on your feet and moving a lot when SHTF, this will be essential. 

Progression:
Week 1 – 2×10 minutes w/ 5 minute breaks between sets (day 1); 2×10 minutes with 5 minute breaks (day 2)
Week 2 -3×10 minutes w/ 5 minute breaks between sets (day 1); 2×10 minutes with 5 minute breaks (day 2)
Week 3 – 4×10 minutes w/ 5 minute breaks between sets (day 1); 2×10 minutes with 5 minute breaks (day 2)
Week 4 – same as week 1

Weight Training:
Day 1:
1.  Deadlift – work up to a moderate-heavy set of 8 and do 3 sets at that weight
2.  Bench Press – work up to a moderate-heavy set of 6 and do 3 sets at that weight
3.  Pull-ups – 30
4.  Dips – 50
5.  Sit-ups – 3×30 add 5 reps to each set each week
6.  Hanging Knee Tucks – 3×10 add 5 reps to each set each week

Day 2:
1.  Deadlift – work up your same heavy weight you did on Day 1, but only do that weight for 1 set
2.  Bench Press – same protocol as deadlift
3.  Pull-ups – 15
4.  Dips – 25
5.  Sit-ups – 2 sets of same reps as Day 1
6.  Hanging Knee Tucks – 2 sets and same reps as Day 1

The purpose of these sessions is to increase functional strength, build a bit of muscle mass, and get your body used to moving YOU.

Block 2 (next 4 weeks)
Monday – Cardiac Output – 60 minutes + Weights
Tuesday – HRIT Walking Lunges – back to same progression as before
Wednesday – Circuit Training
Thursday – HRIT Walking Lunges – same as before
Friday – Hill Sprints + Weights
Saturday – Cardiac Efficiency – 90 minutes

Circuit Training – this can be done many different ways, you can train the aerobic system or the lactic system.  The purpose of our circuits will be to train aerobically, so ideally keep your heart rate between 130-150.  Essentially, this is the same as doing cardiac output, but we put this in to a more functional platform because the entire musculature is at work.

Sample Circuit: (Check SEMOSTRENGTH on YouTube, this is my channel and you can see a lot of the exercises I will talk about here)
1.  DB Bench Press – utilize a weight that you can do 15-20 repetitions with and do sets of 8
2.  Lat Pulldown – utilize a weight that you can do 15-20 repetitions with and do sets of 8
3.  DB RDL – utilize a weight that you can do 15-20 repetitions with and do sets of 8
4.  Seated Plate Twist – use a 15# plate and do 8 repetitions/side
5.  Plate Toe Touches – same 15# plate and do 8 repetitions
6.  DB Curls – utilize a weight that you can do 15-20 repetitions with and do sets of 8
7.  DB S-L Lunge – utilize a weight that you can do 15-20 repetitions with and do sets of 8
8.  DB Squat Jumps – just hold 10# plates at your side – 8 repetitions

Remember, keep the heart rate in the range given (130-150), if you find yourself going over the 150 mark, slow down.  Give yourself 2-3 minutes between circuits and complete 3-5 circuits or go 45-60 minutes.  Each week try to improve what you did either weight wise or number of circuits.

Hill Sprints – purpose – Training the heart at very high heart rates and having to recover as quickly as possible.  Keep all hill sprints to 7 seconds, rest once your heart rate hits 130 beats per minute and go again.  Find a hill that is at least 30 meters long and a moderate grade.  A treadmill can give a similar effect as well but be careful.  See how many hill sprints you can get in 1 hour.

Weights:
Day 1:
1.  Deadlift – up to a moderate heavy set of 5 – then 4 more sets at that weight
2.  Bench Press – up to a moderate heavy set of 5 – then 4 more sets at that weight
3.  Chin-ups – 50 reps
4.  Dips – 100 reps
5.  Oxidative Push-ups – do not lock arms out, constant movement throughout – 2 seconds down/2 seconds up – 40 seconds of work/60 seconds rest  – 2 series (5 minutes rest between series) – 3 sets of 40 seconds on/60 seconds off – each week add a set, and week 4 go back to the original protocol again (3 sets).
6.  Sit-ups – 3×50 (add 5 reps each week)
7.  Rocky’s – 3×10

Day 2:
1.  Deadlift – up to the same heavy weight as Day 1 – then 2 more sets at that weight
2.  Bench – same as deadlift
3.  Chin-ups – 25
4.  Dips – 50 reps
5.  Oxidative Push-ups – 1 series follow same set scheme week to week as Day 1.
6.  Sit-ups – 3×50 (add 5 reps per week)
7.  Plate Chops – 3×10 each side w/ a 25# plate

Give the first 8 weeks a try, and prepare.  Even if the crash doesn’t occur soon, at least you will be in quite fine shape in two months.

God Bless.

Letter Re: Demographic Shifts in The American Redoubt

Mr. Rawles,
In the aftermath of the apparent hostile takeover of Colorado by immigrants from California, I have been wondering about the status of the States that comprise the American Redoubt. Is there any information available about demographic shifts within the Redoubt as a result of immigration? I’ve heard a little here and there, particularly about some of the resort type areas of Idaho and the coastal regions of Washington and Oregon, but nothing about significant shifts within the states as a whole.

Thanks, – Thetonedeafbard

JWR Replies: The American Redoubt region is conservative, and gradually getting more conservative, year by year. Wyoming’s recent enactment of permitless concealed carry is indicative of this trend. Take a look at the 2008 Presidential election returns versus the 2012 Presidential election returns. There are indeed a few liberals moving in, but they are vastly outnumbered by conservatives who are coming from the same states. With higher taxes and more draconian gun laws, I expect this trend to accelerate in the future. In effect the Red States are getting darker red and the Blue States are getting darker blue. Colorado was an example of a purple state that gradually turned blue, at least in the larger cities. But now that it has enacted sweeping civilian disarmament laws, I expect that Colorado will lose conservatives (through out-migration), and conservative states like Wyoming and Montana will be the beneficiaries of those who have “voted with their feet.”

The key goal of the American Redoubt movement was to simply solidify an existing demographic trend. Back in 2011 I wrote: “I’m inviting people with the same outlook to move to the Redoubt States, to effect a demographic solidification. We’re already a majority here. I’d just like to see an even stronger majority.”

Echoing these trends, the likelihood of partition of Eastern Oregon and Eastern Washington will continue to grow. The residents of the eastern counties have little in common with the folks west of the Cascades, and will have less and less in common with them, as time goes on. I predict that inevitably either taxes or civilian disarmament laws will be the triggers that will force a separation.

Wikipedia sums up this divide between the eastern halves of Oregon and Washington: “East of the Cascades, in eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, and Idaho, the population is much more conservative. The eastern portions of Washington and especially Oregon, due to their low populations, do not generally have enough voting power to be competitive at the state level, and thus the governorships and U.S. Senate seats of both Oregon and Washington are usually held by the Democrats. Idaho, being a separate state located entirely within the conservative interior of the Pacific Northwest, is a Republican stronghold. Conservatism in the US part of the Pacific Northwest tends to be distrustful of federal government interference and strongly protective of gun rights.”

Don’t over-rate the influence of a few liberal enclaves like Sun Valley, Idaho and Missoula, Montana. They are so vastly outnumbered that they are politically irrelevant.

Economics and Investing:

Global Physical Gold & Silver Demand On Fire Amid Price Drop

Paper-Gold Holders Flee To Real Metal

Why a Dollar & Euro Collapse Is Guaranteed

The European Commission Lays Out The True Blueprint For The Future Of Every European Country

Items from The Economatrix:

Is Bernanke’s Worst Nightmare Just Around The Corner?

Is The Takedown Of Gold A Sign That The Entire Global Financial System Is About To Crash?

Criminal Cartel Attacks:  No Shelter Until They Have It All

Odds ‘n Sods:

Who are the alleged Boston Bombers? It appears that they Chechen Muslims who were legally residents in the States. This might be a case of newly-minted Americans with an agenda, time of their hands and some spending money. Tamarlen Tsarnaev (deceased via the grisly combination of police gunfire, blowing himself up, and being run over by his own brother) was a frustrated boxer who had been arrested for assaulting his girlfriend. The editor of View From The Porch mentioned that it is safe to assume that he was named after the Muslim-Mongol conqueror Tamerlane. (It is a fairly common name in Chechenya.) His younger brother Dzhokhar Tsarnaev–captured, at last report–was most likely named after Dzhokhar Dudayev, the first President of Ichkeria–an Islamic separatist Chechen Republic created in 1991. (I assume this because he would have been born around 1994, which was at the height of the First Chechen War, and two years after Dzhokhar Dudayev took power.) Ironically, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev reportedly became a naturalized American citizen on September 11, 2012. Some big unanswered questions: Did they have accomplices? If so, then who? Did they have any ties to international terrorists, or were they just domestic wannabes?

   o o o

Going Montana: Kansas Governor Brownback signs gun-rights legislation.

   o o o

I noticed that Ready Made Resources has added this to their product line: Laser Devices DBAL-I2 Green 5mW/IR 0.6mW weapons sight. These cannot be seen without the aid of a night vision device!

   o o o

Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.com: The Goal Is To Destroy All Constitutional Culture

   o o o

I just heard about a “best of both worlds” solution: Cannon Safe’s EMP Lock. (An electronic gun vault lock with a mechanical backup. Clever.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“My son, keep my words, and lay up my commandments with thee.
Keep my commandments, and live; and my law as the apple of thine eye.
Bind them upon thy fingers, write them upon the table of thine heart.” – Proverbs 7:1-3 (KJV)

Notes from JWR:

April 19th marks multiple anniversaries: The Battles of Lexington and Concord, the Warsaw Ghetto uprising against the Nazis in 1943, the BATF’s costly raid on the Branch Davidian Church in Waco (20 years ago, today), the gun turret explosion on the USS Iowa in 1989, and very sadly also the Oklahoma City bombing, in 1995.

April 19th is also the birthday of novelist Ralph Peters. Coincidentally, we I both have the same literary agent, Robert Gottlieb.

—

Today we present another entry for Round 46 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300 and 10 TAPCO polymer magazines (5 AR and 5 AK) courtesy of Armageddon Armory, E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials and F.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value. E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value), and F.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 46 ends on May 31st so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

A New Pandemic Threat On the Horizon: H7N9, by TXnurse

Influenza A viruses originate from various avian species, and almost exclusively begin in China. Influenza A viruses have always infected many different species of birds. Often initially seen in one species, they frequently cross over and cause illness in another species, this is called mixing, mutation or antigenic drift. This is how new subtypes of viruses are created. Eventually these viruses progress until they mutate enough to become infective to mammalian hosts (us). These viruses can be highly infective, easily transmissible and very lethal in humans. Most of us have probably heard of the H1N1 virus that took a substantial toll on the world’s population in 2009, and continues to be a threat during flu season. Many still may be familiar with H5N1. This subtype appeared around 1997 in China and has made slow progress to become more adaptable with human to human transmission (H2H). In the last 10 days China has made announcements (almost daily) of cases of severe influenza that has been subtyped as H7N9. This particular strain has been known to infect birds, but up until this point not humans. The number of cases daily, including deaths has been alarming. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) are taking this new development very seriously. What the 3 subtypes mentioned above have in common is that when they first appeared they are what scientists and virologists call Novel subtypes (meaning new to humans). Depending on the way they have mutated and adapted to become infective to humans has a lot to do with how lethal they are to us. The unique genetic sequences of these viruses also give virologists insight into how lethal they may be, and what their “case fatality rate” (CFR), may be on the general population.

My intent on writing this article is to make it as easy as possible for everyone to understand the importance of how serious a novel pandemic can be to us without getting bogged down with the scientific terms, and how important it is for us as prepared individuals to know how to handle and stockpile for a pandemic with a high CFR. My background is in critical care. For the past 24 years I’ve worked in an Intensive Care Unit, and have taken care of numerous influenza patients. We had quite a few patients on ventilators in 2009, and we lost some young people with serious pneumonias and multi organ failure. I have always been interested in epidemiology and in the mid-1990s began researching influenzas extensively. What has me particularly worried about H7N9 is the rapid development of this novel subtype, and the possibility that there is already human to human transmission. As of 4/12/13 China has reported 49 cases, 11 deaths, many remaining critical and only two recoveries. This may not sound worrisome to most people, but if you knew how difficult it is to get accurate information and numbers out of China, it is quite astounding that they are admitting to these cases so quickly! This leads me to believe that there are many more still unreported. We do not have a complete picture yet, with possible “mild” cases factored into the numbers, but the numbers we do have show an extremely high CFR (probably greater than 50%). In comparison the last great pandemic in our recent history was the Spanish Flu of 1918, it had a CFR of 2% and it killed approximately 50 – 100 million people world wide. The World Heath Organization, CDC, and much of the scientific community believe it is only a matter of time before another novel pandemic virus hits the world again. Normally in each century the world has approximately three flu pandemics, this was the case in the last century, we had two mild pandemics in 1957 and 1968, which increased the overall mortality rates throughout the world, but not significantly, and still had the elderly and infirm as its primary victims. The Spanish Flu in 1918 was quite different in the fact that its primary victims were young and healthy people in their prime. Scientists believe this was primarily due to something called a “cytokine storm”, which occurs most frequently in the young healthy population, allowing a person’s own immune system to over react and attack vital organs, especially the lungs. This is also what we saw to some extent with the H1N1 virus in 2009. Currently with H7N9 victims the reports have stated that most became very hypoxic (short of breath) fairly soon, and most progressed rapidly to multi organ failure.

Effects of Past Pandemics on the United States
Pandemic    Estimated U.S. Deaths      Influenza A Strain     Populations at Greatest Risk

1918-1919       500,000                            H1N1                      young, healthy adults
1957-1958         70,000                            H2N2                      infants, elderly
1968-1969         34,000                            H3N2                      infants, elderly
2009-2010         18,300                            H1N1 (swine)         young, healthy adults

Please note that all these recent pandemics had a CFR of 2% or less. World wide the current CFR for the slow adapting H5N1 virus is greater than 60%, which means that every 6 out of 10 people who have caught the H5N1 virus have died! I shutter to think what the CFR will be for the H7N9 virus that appears to be adapting to humans at a much faster pace.

Seasonal Flu vs. Pandemic Flu what is the difference?

The seasonal flu is the normal flu we see arrive every year usually starting sometime in the fall and lasting until sometime in the spring. Each year we see slightly different variations of influenza virus subtypes that have been around for awhile, and most of us have some antibodies and immunity to some of these subtypes. So when it comes time to look at making the next season’s flu vaccine our influenza specialists usually look at the three most prevalent subtypes we just had and begin to culture these viruses in fertilized eggs (scientists are working on cell based vaccines now for faster deployment of vaccines, soon to be common place I hope) and then combine them to come up with our new vaccine for the coming flu season (this is the simple version). The process to make a new vaccine usually takes about 6 months. The seasonal flu can target 5 – 30% of the population, and usually makes you feel horrible for about a week or so. Complications arise in people with compromised immune systems and in the very young and elderly. Deaths occur usually from a secondary pneumonia infection. Getting your flu vaccine every year greatly reduces your chances of getting the flu. The experts who just made the new vaccine are hoping the new subtype out for the season will at least be partly covered by the vaccine. I’ve heard many people say they “got the flu” from the shot. That really is not possible as the vaccine is made from a “killed” virus, your arm may hurt and some people may have a slight fever, with minimal other discomforts, but I believe you are better off being vaccinated.

A pandemic flu occurs when we have an avian species coming up with a new subtype that we have no antibodies or immunity to. The virus goes through several stages until it mixes and mutates to become easily transmissible to humans. This novel strain can possibly be very lethal. “Pandemic” simply means it will become a global problem (because of the newness). A global pandemic flu will likely target greater than 50% of the world’s population due to the fact that none of us has any immunity.

Consequences of a Global Flu Pandemic

In a typical disaster which usually happens to a localized area or country, resources are mobilized to help with the recovery. In a global flu pandemic there are no resources from unaffected regions to mobilize, it will be every region, every country, every family fending for themselves. In a global pandemic the disaster is unrelenting (up to 12 – 18 months), which will thwart any effort to recover. Hospitals will be overwhelmed in days to 1 – 2 weeks. Because of our “just in time delivery systems” that every corporation now uses, medical supplies will become nonexistent in days. The hospital I work in usually has a pharmacy delivery twice a day. As an example of the systemic system weakness people will walk off their jobs and go home due to the fear of catching the flu and bringing it home to their loved ones. This will greatly affect our supply chains for all our resources; groceries, medicines, fuel, etc. Hospitals are not just made up of Doctors and nurses, we have ancillary departments that are fundamental in the care and operation of our hospitals. Suppose just one department, like Nutritional Services is affected first, either by fear of coming to work, or by people who have caught the flu, how do our patients get fed? Within days many departments in the hospital will be depleted of personnel, again either by not coming into work, or becoming victims of the flu. Emergency Room departments will be completely over run very quickly, and unfortunately in most cases there is not a whole lot we can do medically for people with a viral infection. Flu usually has to run its course, and if we do not have IV fluids for hydration and any antivirals left, how do we care for these people? People requiring a ventilator for lung support will be out of luck, as this number could be in the thousands, or worse, millions. Our hospital has 5 ventilators at any given time, in times of extra need we can rent maybe 1 or 2 more in our area. It is my firm belief that if we had a global pandemic occur with a high CFR we will be taking care of our own sick, at home. The smartest way is to prepare ahead of time with supplies at home, and be prepared to quarantine your family during the event.

What are the Symptoms of the Flu?

Pretty much what we are already familiar with: sore throat, cold, fever, chills, nausea, vomiting and muscle aches. Warning signs for an immediate Doctor or ER visit would include severe acute shortness of breath, bluish skin (fingers, lips, etc.), seizures and dehydration.

What is the incubation period for catching the flu?

The time between human exposure and onset of illness (incubation period) is usually 2 – 4 days, sometimes up to 7 days. (If I had my family in isolation/lock down for a pandemic and another family member came, I would quarantine them for up to 14 days).

How long does a Pandemic last?

Generally flu pandemics come in three waves, with the second wave usually being the worst. For a global pandemic you are usually looking at up to possibly eighteen months for the three waves to have made their rounds and begin to subside. Currently the CDC has stated that in the recent past they have tried to make a H7 vaccine “just in case” and have had difficultly with it conveying immunity. This may be a big problem for us, as it could take up to a year or more to have a vaccine available to vaccinate our total population.

How contagious is the flu?

The influenza virus can live on an inanimate surface for up to 48 hours; it can live on your clothes for up to 8 hours.

How is the flu spread?

The flu can be spread by droplet infection: coughing, sneezing, bodily fluids. It can be spread by direct contact: shaking hands, door knobs, computer keyboards, shopping carts, etc. The flu can also be airborne, and many influenza experts call for social distancing during a pandemic while out in public or at work (6-10 feet), and if you are out in public during a pandemic you should be wearing personal protective equipment  (PPEs).

What can I do to prepare my family for a pandemic?

Make sure your family members are up to date on their vaccines, such as the annual flu vaccine (this could possibly convey some immunity to a new virus, not really sure if it would or not). The pneumovax vaccine is also very important, this protects against 23 types of bacterial pneumonia. Hepatitis A is not a bad idea if our utilities are not working and we are forced to drink or eat questionable water or food. A tetanus vaccine is also important, as everyone should have one every 10 years. Be sure to contact your own Physician and discuss these maters with her/him.

The single most important thing we can do during a flu pandemic while at home, work or in public is practice good hand washing skills. This means using plenty of soap with warm to hot water and scrubbing 30 – 40 seconds, remember to get the back of your hands and in between your fingers, under your nails and up your arms. Rinse thoroughly and dry with a paper towel and then turn off the water with the paper towel, so as not to contaminate your hands on the dirty faucet handle. Using a alcohol based hand sanitizer is also recommended (not a antibacterial soap that is not alcohol based). To use this thoroughly wet your hands with the sanitizer and let air dry, do not towel dry. If you are sneezing or coughing be sure to use Kleenex, and properly dispose of them, if Kleenex is not available sneeze into the fabric of your shirt sleeve. I think sneezes have been clocked at 200 miles/hour, that can really travel some distance! Frequently clean your work surfaces at home and at work with either germicidal wipes or a weakened bleach solution (one part bleach to 4 parts water), don’t forget your telephones and computers!

Medicines and Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs)

Lets talk about antivirals first: Neuraminidase Inhibitors have been proven to be effective for some people during normal flu seasons and also with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, and for some of the unfortunate people who contracted the H5N1 subtype, these antivirals may not prevent the flu, but they can lessen the severity and duration of the flu. Some of these antivirals are Tamiflu, and Relenza and the M2 inhibitors Amantadine and Rimantadine. If you have an understanding physician try talking to them now and see if you can get some prescriptions for these drugs. The first two listed have proven to be the most effective, but depending on the specific subtype, some of the viruses have become resistant to the antivirals. Please be sure your home is stocked with plenty of pain and fever reducers. Also be sure you have working thermometers on hand. Have a blood pressure cuff at home and learn how to use it properly; low BP can be one of the first signs of complications.

Particulate Respirator Masks – these ideally should be “fit tested” to be worn properly, you could try going by your local hospital and see if they could show you the proper way to wear the mask. If that is not possible be sure the mask fits snuggly around your face covering your nose and mouth without leak areas (guys….this means no mustaches or beards). These masks must be NIOSH approved N95 rating or higher. A surgical mask is a second (although poor) alternative if respirators are unavailable. One mask can usually be worn for approximately 8 hours, if it has not become soiled, contaminated (taking off and on), or becomes too moist. Nitrile, latex, or vinyl (if you have a latex allergy) single use exam gloves. These come in boxes of 100, you can find them cheap at Sam’s or Costco. The masks can be ordered from places like medical supply companies. You need to have a lot of these on hand, try to get appropriate sizes for your kids if you can. You also need eye protection, wear goggles or a face shield. Goggles should have the side protectors, these can be found at medical supply companies and stores like Lowe’s or Home Depot. Often I have seen pictures of people in the world wearing only masks and not goggles during a pandemic, this was especially evident during the SARS out break. With droplet infections you are contaminated by coughing and sneezes into your mucous membranes…..that includes your eyes! Don’t forget your alcohol based hand sanitizers, and germicidal wipes.

Gowns – a long sleeved cuffed disposable gown may be needed for direct care for an infected person.
 If you are caring for an infected person at home in the case of a severe pandemic and hospitals are closed or full be sure to isolate and quarantine this person to a separate part of the house if at all possible, and have only one primary care person who always wears their PPEs. Keep all materials to care for the infected also separate. Be sure to dispose of  any items that may be soiled or contain bodily fluids very carefully, and away from other family members.

Hydration of the person with flu is extremely important, especially if a hospital is not available. This can prove daunting for someone with nausea and vomiting, but it is imperative if you are the care giver to keep trying to push fluids.

Electrolyte drink
½ tsp. baking soda
½ tsp. table salt
3-4 tbsp. sugar
1 quart water
Mix well, flavor with lemon or sugar free Kool Aid.

Keep a daily record of the person who is ill, include temp, blood pressure, and respirations. Also take daily temps of other members of your family (with a separate thermometer), and be prepared to separate and isolate any additional family members who you believe may be becoming ill. Make sure the infected person is urinating regularly, and in good amounts, if they aren’t this is the first sign of dehydration, or worse, possible kidney failure.

As preppers we all strive to protect our families and loved ones as best we can, a pandemic with a severe CFR would be devastating to the world. Personally this would be one of my tipping points in calling all family members home and staying home, no one in or out for the duration. I would be praying that they come up with a vaccine within a year.

I sincerely hope none of us has to deal with a pandemic with a high CFR in our future, but if we do please prepare now with the items you may need. I will never forget watching scenes from Toronto, during the SARS epidemic, of people selling simple surgical masks on street corners for $10 each! Like with everything else we prepare for now, this is just another possibility in the crazy, crowded world we live in.

Please stay healthy and God Bless.

Disclaimer: This information is not intended to replace the advice of a doctor. The author and web site disclaim any liability for the decision you make based on this information.

Economics and Investing:

Fewer Americans Now View Their Income Taxes as Fair. The 55% who say their taxes are fair is lowest since 2001. (Not mentioned here is the fact that 47% of American adults pay NO Federal income tax!) So next we must ask the more apropos question: What percentage of actual TAX PAYERS consider their taxes “fair”?

Jim Rogers Cites Four Key Forces Fueling The Current Gold Sell-Off
 
U.S. Economy Fundamentally Tormented; No Amount of Money Printing Can Fix It
 
Precious Metals Retailer Says They Have Been Experiencing Astounding Volume.

US Mint Sells Record 63,500 Ounces Of Gold In One Day

 

Items from The Economatrix:

Rising Costs Hammer Builder Confidence

JPMorgan Being Investigated By 8 Federal Agencies. Something tells me they’ll just get a slap on the wrist.

11 Economic Crashes That Are Happening Right Now

Odds ‘n Sods:

Some more twisted “white guilt” musings from the leftist editors at Salon: Let’s hope the Boston Marathon bomber is a white American. I have a better suggestion: Let’s hope that whomever is responsible is brought to justice, regardless of his skin pigmentation or national origin.

   o o o

USDA Implements New Program to Track Livestock

   o o o

A revised edition of an important article: Comparing England (or UK) murder rates with the US: More complex than you thought

   o o o

Seven things you need to know about the new immigration bill. (Thanks to R.B.S. for the link.)

   o o o

Reader J.R.B. sent: Huge Upset in Gainesville, Florida as Tea Party Candidate Wins Mayoral Race. (The ousted mayor was a member of Bloomberg’s anti-gun cabal. The Mayors Against Illegal Guns seems to have an inordinate number of “crime fighting” mayors who have been caught doing all manner of illegalities including drunk driving, child pornography and attempted seduction, influence peddling, fraud, assault, theft of government funds, and attempted homosexual rape.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“When more of the people’s sustenance is exacted through the form of taxation than is necessary to meet the just obligations of government and expenses of its economical administration, such exaction becomes ruthless extortion and a violation of the fundamental principles of a free government.” – Grover Cleveland

Notes from JWR:

The Toomey-Manchin-Schumer scheme has thankfully failed to muster enough votes, but be vigilant. BHO is reportedly livid, so don’ be surprised to hear of some new Executive Orders related to firearms–for example restricting importation of full capacity magazines, military surplus gun parts, military surplus ammunition, and “non-sporting” guns. Since the administration no doubt already has them in their back pocket, some new E.O.s could be announced as soon as Friday.

—

Today we present another entry for Round 46 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300 and 10 TAPCO polymer magazines (5 AR and 5 AK) courtesy of Armageddon Armory, E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials and F.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value. E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value), and F.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 46 ends on May 31st so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

The Time in Between the Moments, by Paul G.

So you are a prepper. You have trained yourself for survival, bought survival gear, and built up personal survival items not only for yourself, but for your family as well. You’re even thinking about how to improve your plans, modify your techniques, and seek continuing to educate yourself with additional survival skills. Then TEOTWAWKI situation happens and everything goes to heck for a day, a week, or maybe even your lifetime. There could be an economic collapse with looting situations, severe weather scenarios causing mass casualties, natural disasters wiping out the power grid, or you may even be in an unfortunate car accident.  TEOTWAWKI may last for weeks or may only last for a minute.  Whatever happens, you have to move from being a person in preparation into a person of action in a fraction of a second’s time. Are you ready? What is more important is that are you ready for the time in between the moments one must push him or herself from being a prepper into being a doer?

My experience with “time in between the moments” came as a result of my experience being an Iraq War veteran during my deployment in 2004. I was in the 1544th Transportation Company in the Army National Guard unit out of Paris, Illinois. My job or “preparations” was suppose to be a petroleum specialist, but soon I found myself in force protection, as combat life saver, and a mechanic as the needs of the army determined what I needed to be at the time. Before deployment, I was working as a special education teacher in a small rural community and already had the mentality of always continuing my education like must educators do and try to foster in their students. When called to active service, I spent even more time preparing during winter months in Wisconsin for service in the deserts of Iraq! I dedicated myself to learn more about combat life saving, mechanic skills, physical training, and other land navigation skills. I was prepping. I was a prepper. I thought I was prepared. I made the mistake of thinking that prepping was all there was to do for survival. I was wrong. The life lesson I learned and wish to pass to you the reader is preparing is what is to be done when you’re safe, in times of peace, and there is civility between you and your neighbors. Survival is not prepping. Survival is what you have to do with your preparations, skill set, and God given talents.

My company was not even in country “so to speak” for 24 hours when mortar rounds dropped on Log Base Seitz and we lost a very brave soldier that day. Sgt. Phipps was a great inspiration as he was the one of the few soldiers who preached to everyone that we needed to be ready and prepared for what we had in store for us in Iraq and unfortunately he was the very first casualty (eventually the company would lose four more young and brave soldiers).  I remember that day well. The mortars exploded and I was stuck in between the moments and was a watcher to my surroundings with all my prior training and prepping just waiting to be utilized, but nowhere to go. I was stuck in between the moment. I was not going anywhere and no use to anybody.  This continued between the first and second explosions until a little divine voice spoke to me and said THINK, MOVE, SURVIVE, and HELP OTHERS. I was lucky. I was able to hear the voice. I started to become a doer and no longer just a prepper.

When a survival situation happens, whatever it may or whenever it may come, the voice I first heard that day propelled me from being a prepper and becoming a doer. The experience felt that day is hard to put into words but the lesson I wish to tell others is to think, move, survive, and help others in between the moments of TEOTWAWKI moments. The moments might be seconds or days apart. Sometimes in multiple rounds in one minute, one hour, or in one day.  Wither it’s rendering first aid to your buddy or strangers, lock and loading your weapon to defend your or others’ life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness, or sitting on watch protecting your home or country, it is what you know and how well you’re prepared which will determine how well you can make the change from being a prepper into being a doer and eventually a survivor.

At first the time in between the moments are a wonder. You may feel fear, your may forget everything you trained for, you may even be thinking about how festinating the events are unfolding around you. But, you must eventually move forward and stop watching and start analyzing and think. Think about concealment or shelter, think about where the enemy is, think about cover, think about where your gear is, or in other words think which is an action and by nature is not passive observation.

Next is to move. Move your body to a protective position, move your hands to grab equipment, move your fears out of the way, move your supplies to a safe location, move your vehicle into a safe lane, or move to your bug out location. Moving is the hardest part in a stressful situation and also requires correct actions on your part. Correct actions may be the plans you make while in the moment or in long term actions like moving to a safe location outside the collapse of a large urban area.  I believe moving is what places a person at the edge of a fine red line to cross so they can start ones personal  transformation into becoming a doer. What is the use of thinking only and not moving on what you know you ought to be doing in a TEOTWAWKI situation? Being a prepper is great only if you are truly serious about the day after preparations are not longer possible. I have heard from too many people I know brag about their own personal preparations and not have a clue what to do on the day after a very horrible moment in time. 

With time and correct action, thinking and moving will make you a survivor. The more a person survives the more experience they will gain and that is what is needed to become a veteran. Anyone can become a veteran and not really be in combat. You can become a veteran just by the experience of thinking and moving in a survival situations. First responders, firefighters, police officers all know this as they gain experience everyday by surviving their emergency moments by what they do with their time in between the moments on call and between calls.

Finally, you have survived and survived more than just once. You knew what to do with your time in between the moments of pure chaos and were lucky or fortunate enough to still be in one piece. What to do now is to help pick up the pieces and help others not fortunate enough to either know what to do with their time in between the moments because of lack of preparation or fell victim to the blunt force of the moment. The moment has passed and now you must act and be a doer of what is right by helping those less fortunate than you are. Rendering first aid to a buddy screaming for help, offering a helping hand to a neighbor buried under rubble, or giving food to the hungry are all right actions to help out others in times of their need. Being a prepper makes you prepared for the moment, but after the moment has passed for the time being, you need to become a doer to help build or rebuild your family, neighborhood, community, or country.  Sure your preparations will help you survive, but can you and your small like minded community last forever by yourselves and can you really afford to stay in prep mode and not be a positive force for promoting the principles of our founding fathers and Christ. Of course, you’re not to give to the point of endangering yourself and your family, but if you and your like minded community do not grow and encourage others to be persuaded take on your principles it’s only a matter of time before the others not like minded and bent on an ideology of forcefully “redistributing” from others weaker then you will soon grow strong enough to take what you have. 

So what is the time in between the moments? It’s what you make of it. Hopefully you will THINK, MOVE, SURVIVE, and HELP OTHERS. How well you can do these actions depends on how well you have made your preparations. The time spend in preparing is time well spent.  Grow in areas of weakness, assess your strengths, and spend time thinking about what you should be doing with your time in peace and in time of action. But there will be a time when you have to cross the line and stop being a prepper and start becoming a doer. Take courage and listen to your inner voice which will help guide you in a time a crises in a TEOTWAWKI situation. 

Letter Re: Advice on U.S. Military Service

Sir:
This is in response to a letter published on Sunday, 4 April “Letter Re: Advice on U.S. Military Service“

Jim M. says the person should consider joining the Navy Seabees. I am writing to say the exact opposite. Do not consider joining the Seabees at least not at this time. The Naval Construction Force (NCF) consist of six active duty Naval Mobile Construction Battalions (NMCB) and 12 reserve NMCBs. (Along with various Cargo Handling Battalions (NCHB), Maintenance Units (CBMU) and others.) With the current fiscal problems and general changes in needs of the DoD, there are heavy cuts in the works.

Between now and 2015 you’ll see this force effectively cut in half. Three of the active and six reserve NMCBs will cease to exist. Each is typically manned at about 80%, the unfilled billets (job positions) of the untouched NMCBs will be filled with some of the Bees from the battalions being cut. This will leave about 60% of the remaining half without a position.

These Bees will be in essence ‘laid off’. Not pink slipped exactly but will be in a state of limbo. They’ll be transferred to Administrative units. Not actual training units, just holding units that will take care of their paperwork (admin/medical). On the plus side, about one-third of those will be retiring in the next 2-4 years and about one-third weren’t going to make a career of it and will get out at the end of their contracts in 2-4 years. The remaining third will have to change rates to non-construction related fields and join fleet-type units. Some percent of the total are so hardcore (don’t call a Seabee a Sailor), they’ll get ticked off and quit rather than change and finish their 20 years. – Seabee B.

Economics and Investing:

Tax Freedom Day 2013 is April 18 — Five Days Later than Last Year

Jim W. sent: 16% of Annual Silver Supply Just Vaporized

Dollar Decline Confirmed

Items from The Economatrix:

Massive $20 Billion Paper Gold Sell Orders Trigger Stop Loss Selling and Unfounded Panic

Gold Trader:  Expect Margin Calls Monday Morning as Big Players Do Whatever it Takes to Get Physical Metal

Extreme Nervousness in Regards To Collapse — Gold Silver a Must Rule