June in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, by Steven Cochran of Gainseville Coins where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover the price action of gold and examine the “what” and “why” behind those numbers.

What Did Gold Do in June?

Gold started the month at $1,212.70 an ounce and ended June at $1,321.70 an ounce, for a gain of $109.00. The worst payroll report in years and the Brexit vote were the main factors in favor of gold. Silver was the big winner in June. It handily beat gold, ending at a 22-month high.

Factors Affecting Gold This Month

Non-farm Payrolls

The worst job gains since 2010 smashed stocks and the dollar, as the odds of the Fed raising interest rates fell past zero. Odds began growing that the Fed would cut rates back down to 0.25% instead of raising them, after such a slowdown.

Central Banks Out Of Options

Weakening growth in Europe and Japan, even after their central banks cut interest rates into negative territory, pushed gold prices to two-year highs.

Brexit

There was nothing else happening in June that affected gold prices more than the EU referendum in Britain, a.k.a. the Brexit vote. Stocks, bonds, currencies, and gold all moved according to whether the “Remain” side or “Leave” side was ahead in the polls. With everyone certain on voting day that the Remain side had it all locked up, gold had fallen under $1,300 an ounce while stocks were up sharply.

So, it was a huge shock to the establishment when the Leave side quickly pulled ahead on the vote count. Stock futures sold off, the pound sterling dropped to 31-year lows, and gold shot up by $104 an ounce at one point, to $1,360 an ounce. Speculators, of course, sold into the rally to reap huge profits, and spot gold closed the next day at $1,315.60 an ounce for a gain of $59.30 (4.72%).

The day after the vote, many people who voted to Leave were shocked that the UK was going to exit the EU. Known as “Regrexit”, these people voted Leave to “send a message” and never thought it would actually happen. A poll that was started to ask Parliament for a “do-over” had more than three million signatures within two days.

This just added to the uncertainty over what would happen to the economies of the EU and UK and kept gold well-bid through the end of the month.

On the Retail Front

There was a huge run on physical gold in the UK ahead of the Brexit vote, with the showroom of famous gold company Sharps Pixley selling out the gold bars and coins of incoming shipments before they even arrived at the showroom.

Sales of 2016 American Silver Eagles slowed in June, with a bit more than 2.8 million ounces sold.

The Perth Mint says that the phone has been ringing off the hook, as people clamor for gold bars and coins and opt to have them stored in the Perth Mint vault.

Market Buzz

In Venezuela, the Socialist government has been selling off all its gold to pay bills, while President Maduro’s goon squads beat opposition leaders and starving people protesting the lack of food.

Over in Argentina, a former senior government official was caught burying duffel bags packed with $8.5 million in cash on the grounds of a convent.

Bill Gross warns that those ineffective negative interest rates that are having the opposite effect than intended are a “supernova” ready to explode. Global bond yields at their lowest point in 500 years? So much for your pension!

Gross weighs in on the Brexit controversy, saying that there is a 30-50% chance that Britain will drag the U.S. economy into recession.

Investing legend George Soros was batting .500 in June. Famous for making over $1 billion betting against the pound in 1992, he became known as “the man who broke the Bank of England”. Well, he ended up on the wrong side of that bet on June 23rd, by betting heavily on the pound gaining on a “Remain” Brexit vote.

On the other side, he had the sense to buy into gold miner stocks and gold ETFs on his concerns over central bank policies and currency devaluation.

Marc Faber says the chaos in Europe over the Brexit vote will spill over to the U.S. and force the Fed to begin QE 4.

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is the world’s largest physically-backed gold fund. It got $18 billion larger in the first half of this year, as investors pour into gold bets.

First Majestic Silver is the second-largest silver producer in Mexico. The CEO predicts $140 silver in the future, as secondary sources of silver fall. If that’s too tame for you, Steve St. Angelo at SRSrocco Report says $12,000 gold and $360 silver are in the cards. The experts over at Sprott Global lay out the technical signs that we are in a new bull market for gold.

Our good friends over at Casey Research lay out how Brexit and negative interest rates by the European Central Bank are threatening an EU banking collapse that will spread into a global banking crisis.

Our own Everett Millman takes a look at how nations are building their gold reserves once again, to have hard assets backing their currencies.

Looking Ahead

The CME Group FedWatch tool at press time shows a zero percent chance of a rate hike by the Fed, through February 2017.

The Bank of England is already announcing stimulus measures, while the Bank of Japan can’t stop the yen from getting stronger on safe haven demand, even though interest rates are negative.

The middle of summer is usually the quiet time for gold, until the fall wedding season starts up in India. The concerns over Brexit and the possible failures in the Italian banking system may keep gold jumping through the summer.

We end this month with the story of a British treasure hunter who turned lead into gold.

Letter Re: California’s New Gun Laws

Sir,

There is a responsive action that should be brought up. Along with the “move”, “boycott” or “transfer arms out of state” options, add “Defy” to the list.

There has to be enforcement of the new laws. As a combat veteran, I would never surrender any of my personal pieces due to state or federal “laws”. Fleeing only means you relocate to smaller and smaller areas, until you have nowhere else to run. Hold your ground. Make them work for it. Don’t cave, and force those fools to flinch. – M.S.

JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:

Books:

Storey’s Guide to Raising Rabbits, 4th Edition

Tunnel In The Sky by Robert Heinlein

Movies:

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

American Sniper

Music:

Fairport Convention: Best of the BBC Recordings

Hans Zimmer; Gladiator Soundtrack

Video Blog Posts:

Wranglerstar: Back To Basics 2

The Survival Mom: Food Storage Myths

Podcasts:

Radio Free Redoubt: June 25, 2016

God and Guns Podcast #155 – Orlando

Very Useful Gear:

Leatherman Wave (My “Truck Console Carry” multi-tool.)

Trijicon ACOG 4×32 with .223 Reticle (The next best thing to owning a Starlight Scope.)

Odds ‘n Sods:

America Died At 11:00 ET 7/5/2016 – Excerpt: “The Rule of Law was officially burned and buried today on live television by the Director of the FBI. You therefore no longer have any moral requirement to adhere to same; your entire analysis must now rest on whether you are sufficiently afraid of being shot – and nothing more. America, as envisioned and fought for by the founders, died today at 11:00 AM ET, 7/5/2016. 240 years and one day from birth to death.”

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FBI Rewrites Federal Law to Let Hillary Off the Hook – Excerpt: “The added intent element, moreover, makes no sense: The point of having a statute that criminalizes gross negligence is to underscore that government officials have a special obligation to safeguard national defense secrets; when they fail to carry out that obligation due to gross negligence, they are guilty of serious wrongdoing.” – Sent in by B.B.

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The Most Frightening Political Fix – The most breathtaking fix in American history. – B.B.

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Pillo is a home health robot that poops out your pills – But do you trust him? Pillo is HAL 9000’s evil stepson. It spies, records, and uploads your family’s every move. It ensures you take your gov’t required pacification pills on schedule. When the patient has reached the end of their government mandated life span, at special encrypted command, it will even cheerfully dispense that one final pill to make it all happen. (The patient won’t even be advised.) – T.P.

Notes for Tuesday – July 05, 2016

On July 5, 1810, P. T. Barnum, the great American showman, was born. He died on April 7, 1891. He is often credited with the phrase “There is a sucker born every minute.” While the actual attribution of the quote is suspect with many versions of the story abounding, the concept remains valid, especially when one considers the economic state of the entire world. Only in a world of fools could the economy of entire nations, indeed the vast majority of the world, be driven solely off of debt.

Guest Article: SHTF Intelligence – Getting Started- Part 1, by Samuel Culper

This is the first article in a series about using intelligence for preparedness. I’m starting from square zero in order to introduce a new crop of Americans to the concept of using intelligence, to prove that there’s a need for intelligence and to get readers quickly up to speed on how to incorporate it into their security planning. After getting caught up to speed, if you’d like to read more in-depth and put theory into practice, a book entitled SHTF Intelligence will show you the way forward. You can find a small homework exercise here.

Why do I need intelligence?

You need intelligence because everyone has blind spots. A common theme in the preparedness community is beans, bullets, and band-aids. We need food and water to survive, we need medicine to treat injuries and illness, and we need guns and ammo for defense… but against whom?

In a S***-Hits-The-Fan (SHTF) or survival situation, if we’re dumping hundreds or thousands or more dollars into beans, bullets, and baid-aids, doesn’t it stand to reason that we should investigate our surroundings as well?

I think so. I was a military and contract intelligence analyst, and we in this country are likely to face a lot of the same types of situations that we dealt with in Iraq and Afghanistan. We need to look at:

  • Our neighbors and the populace. Are they for us or against us? What are their politics and attitudes? Which households should we approach to build community security in a SHTF situation? Which households will be adversarial to us?
  • Key human terrain. Who wields influence in the area? Where do the nearest tradesmen, engineers, and medical professionals live, in case we need their help?
  • Known bad guys. Who are the active criminals and gangs in the area? What are their activities, and how can we identify their indicators?
  • Future bad guys. Who’s likely to engage in criminality in the future? Which parts of the population are going to resort to criminal behavior in a time of need? Most importantly, in what areas will they be active, and how will they affect my community?
  • Law enforcement. How will they respond to a SHTF situation? If they’re going home, as is often assumed, then where do they live and how can we work with them?
  • Critical infrastructure. What keeps the world spinning in our area? Do we have critical infrastructure that would invite armed security or suggest an increase in criminal activity? Where can we get the things we need to maintain our survivability?

These are just a few questions that intelligence can answer. At the heart of intelligence is the ability to reduce uncertainty. If you’re concerned about grid-down or financial collapse or the Golden Horde or some other event or threat, then some basic intelligence work should be at the top of your To Do list. Ultimately, what intelligence brings to the table is an ability to make well-informed, time-sensitive decisions.

Colonel John Boyd, an Air Force fighter pilot, was the first to describe the decision-making process he called the OODA Loop. Because fighter pilots have to make split-second decisions, their ability to Observe a development, Orient to what that means, Decide which course of action they should take, and then Act on it is a critical part of their survivability in combat. Similarly, lots of tactical shooting trainers have incorporated the OODA Loop into their curriculum for the exact same reason.

That ability to Observe and Orient is the informational phase of the decision-making process. Can you imagine getting into a gunfight, if you can’t see or hear your opponent? Yet that’s exactly what many are preparing to do on a larger level. We’re limited by our field of vision and line of sight, but with an intelligence effort, we can begin to see well beyond just our line of sight.

So what intelligence allows us to do during a SHTF scenario is not just see our opponent but potentially observe him before a conflict arises. This is called Early Warning, and it’s one of the two key responsibilities of our community security element.

The second major responsibility is producing Threat Intelligence. Knowing that a gang is active in your area is a good first step. We need to move beyond our intuitive approach to information and start using a structured, methodical process to completely remove our blind spots. In essence, we need to graduate from mere information and start producing intelligence.

The difference between information and intelligence is simple: information is raw data, and intelligence is the evaluated, assessed, and synthesized information that answers, “So what?” Hearing that there was a murder in your community is not intelligence; it’s just information. Identifying the perpetrator and his current location, finding out where and why the murder took place, determining how it’s going to affect the community, and compiling it into a consumable product is intelligence.

intelligence_cycle

We do this through the Intelligence Cycle. There are five phases, and I’ll briefly detail them in order. In Phase One, we understand our mission, assign analytic tasks and responsibilities, and begin generating our intelligence requirements (covered in the next section). In Phase Two, we task those requirements out for collection. Once that information is collected and reported, we start with Phase Three, where we analyze the incoming information. After filtering out the bad information and analyzing the good information, we produce the actual intelligence. We provide predictive intelligence, which is describing what might or is likely to happen in the future, or estimative intelligence, which is describing an organization’s strength and capabilities. Finally, once we produce the intelligence, we need to ensure that it gets into the hands of the right people. In Phase Five, we disseminate the intelligence to our leadership, our community security team, or the community at large.

Let’s start with Phase One. We need to generate some intelligence requirements or, in other words, statements or questions that describe intelligence gaps.

Let’s say that you do have a gang in the area. What don’t we know about that gang but need to? Do we know how many members are associated with the gang? Do we know where those gang members hang out? Do we know where those gangs are criminally active? Do we know if certain areas are at a higher risk than others (and have we mapped out those areas)? There are potentially lots of intelligence gaps we have, especially if we expect them to be active in a SHTF scenario.

So we can take these questions and start a list:

  1. How many members are in the Leroy Jenkins Gang?
  2. What are the known hangout spots for Leroy Jenkins Gang members?
  3. Identify all high-risk areas for Leroy Jenkins Gang activity.
  4. Et cetera…

If we’re building a house, or in our case an intelligence product, then this list of requirements represents our building materials. This is all the information– the lumber, nails, bolts, roofing shingles, doors, and windows– we need to finish our intelligence estimate. Without knowing what we need, we won’t build a very good house.

And thus ends lesson one. Head on over to our homework page for a practical exercise. I’ve also posted a video that will step you through the process of analyzing your community from multiple angles.

Samuel Culper is the Executive Editor of Forward Observer Magazine

Letter Re: Dry Canning

Hello Hugh and Sarah,

Do you sterilize your jars before using when dry canning? Do you boil or use dry heat (oven)?

Wonderful articles! I’m converting. I’ve had too many reservations about the mylar bags. Have done a lot with them but some don’t seem to pull a vacuum. It makes me question whether they are truly sealed. In fact, I wonder about whether I should repackage everything in jars. Yikes. We’re talking a 300-400 half gallon bags. – P.B.

HJL Comments: We don’t use water bath canning as a general rule so we don’t worry too much about sterilization. For those times where water bath canning is used, sterilization is a critical part of the operation. When canning with a pressure canner, just having clean jars and lids is enough since the temperature is high enough to kill any bacteria that may reside on them. It is convenient to run the jars and lids through a hot rinse in the automatic dishwasher on the morning that pressure canning is taking place.

For dry canning, since there is no moisture to speak of, no bacteria can get a start, so sterilization isn’t used. We wash the jars (whether they are new or used) in the dishwasher, allow them to air dry and then place a clean lid and ring on them to keep “stuff” out. If they aren’t immediately being used, they get placed back into storage as empties, to be pulled out when we need them. When we are ready to use them for “dry” storage, the dry food, whether bulk or freeze dried, is placed in the jar and a lid and ring placed on it immediately. It’s not necessary to put it under a vacuum right away, but it is necessary to keep it from absorbing moisture from the atmosphere, especially with freeze-dried food. Some things like freeze-dried milk are so hydroscopic that a humid day will destroy them in less than 10 minutes. With a lid and ring in place to keep the moisture level low, it will hold until we clean up and start the vacuum sealing process. We usually just place the jars with lids on them on the kitchen table until all are ready that evening to vacuum seal them. Having them clutter the table is a great reminder that no matter how tired you are at the end of the day, you are not finished until the table is cleared.

One note of caution when using a dishwaher with bulk cleaning of jars is in order here. Modern soaps require a small amount of food debris to work well. Loading your dishwasher full of clean jars and running a full wash cycle with a normal amount of soap can etch the jars and weaken them. If you are going to run a full wash cycle because the jars are new, put a few dirty dishes in with them or cut way back on the soap.

We still use mylar bags though. The boxes that hold 12 quart jars will hold about five to six gallons of bulk dry product and will stack much better than 5-gallon buckets. I have one box that I cut the end off of and place the bag in the box, standing on end just like you would a 5-gallon bucket. We then fill it with dry bulk food that can withstand the crushing force, like grains (wheat, corn, rice, et cetera). The bag is then sealed as normal, the box opened up to facilitate removal and then the whole mylar bag (which is now square like the box) placed in a normal box and stacked on the shelves. The bag is labeled with a sharpie and a label is also taped on the box where it can be seen. When the pantry is nearly empty of whatever is stored in the mylar bag/wooden box, a bag is cut open and transferred into 1/2 gallon jars for ease of use. The only exception is really wheat, because we use enough of it that it is easier to keep the working bin as a 5-gallon bucket with a gamma lid. This bucket is generally filled either from the mylar bags or 1/2 gallon jars (because I have some wheat that I didn’t have time to seal in bags and the jars were available) about every third month or so.

There is no reason why jars and mylar bags can’t coexist in your storage scheme. The mylar bags are good for foods that can stand the force of the vacuum sealing and the jars are used for the more fragile things, like potato flakes and macaroni noodles.

News From The American Redoubt:

I heard about a business consultant named James Baker in eastern Washington who is enthusiastic about helping would-be Redoubters relocate to the Inland Northwest through career searches and job placement. He mentioned that both Healthcare and Manufacturing are booming along the I-90 corridor and employers can’t find enough talent to fill positions. Here are his contact details:

Business Services Consultant, WorkSource Spokane
130 South Arthur, Spokane WA 99202
(509) 532-3015 office
(509) 532-3035 fax
E-mail: JBaker@esd.wa.gov

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Headline from Idaho: Athol couple scraping up extreme diet (Thanks to Jeff M. for the link.)

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Sheriff: Grizzly kills bicyclist near Glacier National Park.

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Commander Zero chimes in on Montana’s 37,000 acre Paws Up “glamping” resort.

Economics and Investing:

In Gold We Trust Report 2016 (Gold Eagle)

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Commercial Short Positions In Gold & Silver Hit All-Time Record! (King World News)

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Elizabeth Warren Turns a Blind Eye to the Central Bank (Mises Institute)

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Brussels Looks to Expand Into Middle East and Africa – UKIP MP: ‘EU Wants an Empire’ – H.L.

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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Army veteran rescues bald eagle dangling upside down from a rope in 75-foot tree by ‘mowing down the branches’ with his rifle – G.G.

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While the Dad/son duo fight the FAA over their right to mount a flame thrower or a pistol on a drone a couple of Finnish farmers have attached a chain saw to one. – T.P.

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WikiLeaks: Says “We Have Upcoming Leaks About Hillary”

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Judge Jeanine: Does Loretta Lynch think we’re stupid? – M.T.

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Along those same lines of thought comes this article on Town Hall about the disregard of law by our nation’s elites.

Pat Cascio’s Product Review: Benchmade’s H&K Entourage

I’ve known many of the folks at Benchmade Knives for more than 20 years. It is a credit to the company that there isn’t a very big turnover in those folks that I’ve worked with over the years. At some companies it seems like the turnover is like a revolving door. I’ve been friends with Benchmade’s own Les d’Asis for more than 20 years now, and he’s one of the nicest guys around. One thing I’ve often commented about with Les is that he isn’t a suit and tie type of guy, like me. Last time I put my suit on was when my oldest graduated college– 12 or 13 years ago.

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I’ve toured the new Benchmade plant several times, and I’m well overdue for another tour; they have grown. They would like to grow faster, however, you just can’t walk in the door and get hired. They require highly skilled personnel to operate the CNC machines, assemble the knives, inspect and especially design their knives. They do very few collaborations with custom knife makers . Most knives are designed in-house.

Benchmade has gone through several PR/marketing people over the years, and at one time they even used an outside PR firm, which didn’t work out. For the past couple of years, I’ve been dealing with Derrick Lau, who is their PR guy, and he puts up with all of us “worthless” writers always hounding him for samples for articles. When a knife is available, Lau gets a sample right out to me. Other times, I hound him to death for a particular knife that isn’t in production just yet, and he puts up with me, somehow!

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Benchmade produces H&K knives, under license. This is important, because you will see many H&K products and knives on the market that are not licensed by the gun maker, and they are of poor quality and more often than not made some place in China. As soon as this is discovered and papers get served, the store front address closes down, only to open some place else. It is a never-ending problem with pirated products made in China! If you want a genuine, licensed H&K knife, then seek them out at Benchmade.

The updated H&K Entrourage that I tested is an automatic opening folder. I’m blessed that I live in an enlightened state that allows one to carry automatic opening knives. We have Hollywood to “thank” for the term “switchblade” knives, and I’m not even sure what that term actually means. Of course, Hollywood has demonized automatic opening knives, where the bad guys use them most of the time in the movies. Look, an automatic opening knife, in my humble opinion, doesn’t open any faster than many manually opening folders or assisted-opening folders. I can usually draw a manually opening folding knife from my pocket and fling the blade open faster than I can do the same with an automatic opening folder, because I have to take an extra moment to find the button to push to open the blade. An automatic opening folder is just a bit more convenient for many people, but it is no more “deadly” than any other folding knife.

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A quick look at the Entourage finds a 3.74-inch blade made out of D2 tool steel with a Tanto-style blade. It can also be had with a drop point blade. The blade is also blackened with a Ti-Ni finish, subdued! The knife only weighs 4.64 ounces, and closed it is only 4.70 inches, or opened it’s 8.44 inches. Rockwell hardness on the blade is 60-62, which is about par for D2 tool steel knife blades. D2 tool is hard to work with, but when the blade grind is perfect it will hold an edge an incredibly long time. There is also a sliding safety on the top of the handle that locks the blade in the closed position, so there are no worries about it accidentally opening in your pocket. Plus, once the button is pushed to open the blade for use, you can slide the safety back to the “safe” position to give the blade that added safety of keeping it locked open.

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The anodized black aluminum handle scales now have an insert made out of tough G10 material for an even better grip on the knife, plus grooves milled into the handle scales, once again giving you a better hold on the knife under all sorts of conditions.

There are friction grooves on the rear and back of the handle scales. This is just another feature that keeps the knife secure in your hand, and it also adds a great feel when using the knife in the reverse hold, too. We have a pocket/clothing clip that can be switched from one side to the other, and the blade is carried tip-up. I used to prefer one method of carry over the other– tip-up or tip-down carry . Any more, it really doesn’t matter to me. One is just as fast/good as the other. Lastly, there is a lanyard hole in the back of the handle, for attaching a lanyard loop of 550 para cord. This is a good idea if working over water!

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You can also have the Entourage with a partially serrated blade, and this is outstanding when cutting rope or opening cardboard boxes. It really cuts right though these materials, and if that’s not enough, you can have your Entourage blade out of 440 stainless steel. As of late, Benchmade is allowing customers to, well, customize knives from the factory. You can even get some engraving done, again, at the factory.

Many may not realize that some of the automatic folding knives that Benchmade manufactures are authorized for military use. They have an NSN (National Stock Number) and are sold through the PX on military bases. It takes quite a bit to earn that NSN, believe it or not. It isn’t just given to any product.

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I did like the slightly over-sized button that you press to release/close the blade. Some auto opening folders have a very small button that is recessed too deeply into the handle scales, making it harder to get the blade to open. Plus, Benchmade auto-opening folders all have a very stout coil spring that really flings that blade open. Some companies have a very anemic spring that oftentimes doesn’t have enough power to always open the blade all the way, which is not a good thing, eh?

As to be expected, the H&K Entourage came without any blemishes. It was perfect in all respect. The grind lines were perfect, finish was perfect, and everything was perfect. I expect no less from Benchmade products. To be sure, quite often, Benchmade knives are out-of-stock. They have a difficult time keeping up with supply and demand. It has been this way for as long as I can remember. Remember though, Benchmade is a little bit picky about the folks they employ; they want the best and wait for the best, even if that means some products are in short supply!

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I opened and closed the Entourage hundreds and hundreds of times, and the blade never once failed to fully open. There was no hesitation at all. The tension on the pivot pin was just perfectly adjusted from the factory, too. I carried the knife for several weeks in my right front pocket with the pocket/clothing clip. The knife stayed put, which is something that doesn’t always happen. Some clips are too loose, knives come out, and you lose them.

The H&K was used for all manner of cutting chores around my small homestead, and it sailed through everything I put the blade to. Additionally, the blade didn’t dull in the least. As I stated, D2 holds an edge a good long time. However, it is a little harder to re-sharpen but well worth the effort. D2 isn’t a “stainless” steel, thus the Ti-Ni black coating on the blade to protect it from rusting; however, D2 doesn’t rust very easily to start with.

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Benchmade has my number when it comes to blade length in a folding knife. I like a blade between 3.5 inches to 4.0 inches, and the 3.75-inch blade seems perfect for my tastes. The Entourage hit the mark with the 3.74-inch blade length.

There wasn’t anything I didn’t like about the Entourage in the least. It hit all my hot buttons in a folding knife, plus it is an auto-opening folder. What’s not to like here? Full retail is $200. Yeah, it’s a bit steep, but you are getting Benchmade quality and their limited lifetime warranty, too. When you carry a Benchmade, you are also wearing/carrying something of a badge of honor, too.

– Senior Product Review Editor, Pat Cascio