“No weapon that is formed against thee shall prosper; and every tongue that shall rise against thee in judgment thou shalt condemn. This is the heritage of the servants of the Lord, and their righteousness is of me, saith the Lord.” – Isaiah 54:17 (KJV)
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Notes for Friday – September 02, 2016
September 2, 1969 is the day that the first automatic teller machine (ATM) made its first public debut, dispensing cash to customers at Chemical Bank in Rockville Center, New York. While being as indispensable to most people as cell phones and e-mail, they have introduced a whole new set of issues. Consumers are faced with scams, skimmers, and robbers, and even fake ATMs have been discovered.
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JRH Enterprises is having a big Labor Day weekend sale on new PVS14 night vision devices with a 10 year warranty and DKX M3 Level III lightweight armor plates. You might want to check out their FLIR Scout TK thermal imager for $599.
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August in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins
Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, by Steven Cochran of Gainseville Coins where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover the price action of gold and examine the “what” and “why” behind those numbers.
What Did Gold Do in August?
Every August, most of Europe is off on summer vacation, as are a good number of Wall St traders. With far fewer trades per day, liquidity suffers. Orders that normally would not be big enough to move gold prices have a larger effect when fewer traders are participating.
And so the case was for gold in August. It started the month at a three-week high, jumping over $10 an ounce to trade in a range between $1350 and $1360. On August 5th, the non-farm payrolls report came in much better than anticipated. This raised the odds that the Fed would raise interest rates next month,and knocked gold down by $20.
Strength in gold prices the following week lead to some short-covering in the futures market and some bargain hunting in physical. As usual, it was the chain reaction of “Probability of Fed Rate Hike ? Dollar Price ? Gold price” that moved the markets.
On August 24th, gold prices edged down enough to trigger some automated selling, which then triggered more automatic selling. A $10 fall in the spot price saw gold trading under $1330 for the first time for the month. Hawkish press conferences by Federal Reserve officials designed to prop up the dollar kept gold prices between $1320 and $1325 for the rest of the month.
Factors Affecting Gold This Month
Most of the factors affecting gold in August could once again be labeled “central banks behaving badly”. Mario Draghi over at the European Central Bank and Haruhiko Kuroda at the Bank of Japan keep distorting the natural behavior of the markets, hoping they will eventually do what their theories say they will do. In the meantime, they keep inflating the stock bubble and artificially suppress interest rates so their nation can borrow more money to keep up their deficit spending.
Negative Interest Rates
Speaking of interest rates, the negative rates that the ECB is forcing onto European banks have pressured them so much that they are passing on the negative rates to large consumer deposits. Banks have been charging large corporate and institutional clients negative rates since the ECB imposed them in 2014. Some of these banks are signaling their discontent over the central bank’s market distortions by threatening to pull billions out of the system and hoard paper banknotes. You know you’ve gone off the reservation when the IMF warns that your policies are distorting the financial market and endangering banks. The Fed is up to its old tricks of having regional Fed presidents saying two opposite things to keep the markets guessing on the timetable for the next rate hike. They fail to realize that uncertain markets are frail markets. The uncertainty wasn’t helped when the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes revealed a split ticket on the subject of raising interest rates now, opposed to later. This whipsawing of the markets ended the last week of the month, as everyone from Yellen on down pushed a hawkish theme to make the markets believe that the Fed could raise interest rates in September, if they wanted. There are more than the usual reasons to think that the Fedheads are full of hot air. A study showed that since 1990, when the Fed actually began telling the public when it adjusted interest rates, there has never been an interest rate hike in the two months prior to a Presidential election.
Brexit
While some recent upbeat economic news in the UK has many Brits who voted to leave the EU saying “I told you so”, there are plenty of surprises lurking behind the scenes. One is the very real possibility that banks in London’s famous financial district may be cut off from easy business with the rest of the EU. All banks in the EU are allowed to do business in all EU countries without having to form a branch in each nation. The co-leader of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s political party told reporters, “If you’re member of a club you have certain benefits, but if you’re out, you will not have the benefits any more.” Similarly, the German economic minister said that “we need to make sure that we don’t allow Britain to keep the nice things, so to speak, related to Europe while taking no responsibility.” What he and others really mean is, they have to make Brexit so painful for the UK that no other country will want to go through with leaving. Meanwhile legislators in Northern Ireland have filed suit against the UK government to stop Brexit, on grounds that any move to withdraw from the EU violates the North Ireland consitution. Scotland, who voted not to leave the UK in 2014 because it would remove them from the European Union, has been upset ever since the June 23 Brexit vote. Feeling that they were double crossed, some Scots have started agitating for a new independence vote.
On the Retail Front
On the subject of Brexit, the Royal Mint reported that the day after the Bank of England cut interest rates and started their quantitative easing/money printing scheme, traffic to the Mint’s bullion trading site spiked 250%. That translated into 25% higher sales and 50% higher profit from the week previous.
Across the Irish Sea, demand for gold in Northern Ireland has doubled. Some Belfast jewelers have a waiting list for gold Sovereign coins. Why Sovereigns in particular? They are exempt from Capital Gains Tax in the UK!
The U.S. Mint reported that Silver Eagle and Gold Buffalo sales are down this summer, but Gold Eagle sales are up. According to the latest data from the U.S. Mint, there have been 483,000 1 oz Gold Eagles, 51,000 half-oz Gold Eagles, 100,000 quarter-ounce Gold Eagles, and 615,000 tenth-ounce Gold Eagles sold so far this year, for a total of 595,000 troy ounces of gold.
The Swiss central bank revealed that it made a profit of 7.6 billion francs on its gold holdings for the first half of the year.
The Austrian Mint published its 2015 annual report this month, showing that last year was the third-best year in history for the 822-year old mint. With gold still trading almost $300 an ounce higher this year, we look forward to seeing the sales figures for 2016.
The Russian central bank announced that the 200,000 troy ounces of gold it bought last month put Russian gold reserves over the 1,500 metric ton mark.
Millions of Indian farmers are celebrating the end of a two-year drought by using profits from their crops to push gold demand up 20% from July. The Indian fall wedding season is starting, and gold jewelry can account for up to 50% of the cost of a wedding.
Market Buzz
We read a lot of articles this month regarding the gold market, and most are pointing in the same direction: up. Since we’re heading into fall already, our own Everett Millman looks forward with the gold outlook for 2017.
All this extra gold demand has meant the revival of the “cash for gold” business.
The World Gold Council announced that the first six months of 2016 were the second-best first half performance for gold in history. The 25% gain in gold prices was the best six-month start in more than 35 years. Investment demand was the largest component of gold demand for two consecutive quarters, the first time this has ever happened.
Simon Black at Sovereign Man forecasts that gold prices could jump by 50%, once the multi-billion dollar institutional funds finally decide to stop buying zero-yield bonds and overpriced blue chip stocks. He notes that the $7 trillion global gold market is the only large asset sector that is both undervalued and can absorb the billion dollar trades these funds make. Jim Rickards warns that the extraordinary monetary policies of the world’s central banks are set to fail. He notes that waiting for the panic before buying could leave you with hands full of debased fiat currency. “Physical gold is very scarce; when the price really does break upwards, you’re not going to be able to get it. The time to get it is now,” he said. Those playing with gold futures and ETFs will also be left in the cold. “When everyone wants to convert their paper to physical (gold)…there’s not going to be enough to go around,” Frank Holmes, at US Global Investors, echoes the theory that a shortage in physical gold is looming. Gold production is falling, as older gold mines are exhausted. He says it can take 20 years or more to build a new gold mine, and that’s assuming you have already found a large deposit. If demand for gold keeps growing, we all know what will happen to the price. On CNBC’s “Fast Money,” trader Brian Kelly says the uptrend in gold remains intact, thanks to central banks. In the world of negative interest rates on deposits, the old gold bear taunt about gold and cash has reversed: “The old joke used to be that gold’s a rock that you pay somebody else to store,” said Kelly. “Well now [paper] cash is that rock.” The World Gold Council calls the present global economic situation a “perfect storm” for gold. With bond yields artificially suppressed by central banks to zero or below, gold is the only safe haven asset that gives a positive return (due to rising prices).
Waking Up On Wall St
More analysts at TBTF banks on Wall St are waking up to the fact many of us have known all along: gold is stable money in a world warped by central bank policies.
For example, Deutsche Bank analysts reveal the reason behind the April 2013 flash crash in gold. Oh, and they have a target of $1,700 gold, using a “gold to central banks balance sheets” formula.
Over at Fidelity, analyst Nick Peters says that investors should still be buying gold, even with the recent price gains.
If anyone should know when to buy gold, it should be the head of the Rothschild family. Lord Rothschild has cut the family’s exposure to equities from 55% to 44% this year, selling hundreds of millions of dollars in stocks and adding to the trust’s position in gold. He points to negative interest rates and quantitative easing from the central banks as his reason to get out of overpriced stocks. The Rothschild Investment Trust has returned 58% over the last three years. High-net-worth individuals (the “1%”) are looking to offshore havens to store their bullion– places like Singapore, where precious metals storage has nearly doubled at one of the leading vault providers.
While on the subject of private vault storage outside the banking system, the Comptroller of the state of Texas has issued an open Request For Proposal from those companies wanting to build and operate the planned Texas Bullion Depository. Those guys digging for the underground Nazi Gold Train in the mountains of western Poland have come up empty, but the locals have struck paydirt catering to the tourism the story has encouraged. The fight over the ten Langbord 1933 Double Eagles may be on its way to the Supreme Court, after the family lost an appeals court judgment
Looking Ahead
We end this month back in India, where police pulled over a drunk driver in a minivan, only to find out he was was delivering $30,000 of coins from the central bank by himself, with no guard.
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Letter: Banking Questions
Sir:
We only use our bank for a checking account to funnel our paychecks through and to pay bills. If banks go to negative interest rates or start confiscating accounts to cover their liabilities, what are we to do? Are we to switch to check cashing services and to money orders to pay bills? I am not seeing this addressed anywhere.
HJL Comments: Right now, the negative interest rates mostly affect interbank deposits. However, many have already seen the effects of fees, which make your bank account essentially a negative interest bearing account. If your monthly fee for having an account is ten dollars and the bank is only paying 0.1% interest on it, how much do you have to have in the account just to pay for the storage of that money and/or the use of the account? While using a debit card is a convenience, it allows the bank (and whoever has access to those records) to track your spending habits and mine them for metadata as well. SurvivalBlog has long advocated only keeping the cash in the bank that you need to operate with on a monthly basis. All other monies should be kept elsewhere and possibly in forms that are not so volatile.
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Economics and Investing:
16 Tests to Spot Fake Silver Coins – DSV
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Deutsche Bank refuses clients’ demand for physical gold – E.S.
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This may be another canary of a forthcoming, major economic slowdown. Ford Announces “Sales Plateau” After 8% Decline, Missing Estimates; Diving Further Into the ISM “Anomaly” – P.S.
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How Millennials Could Bring The Oil Industry To Its Knees
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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.
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Odds ‘n Sods:
The Day The Lights Go Out And The Trucks Stop Running – P.S.
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‘Like it’s been nuked’: Millions of bees dead after South Carolina sprays for Zika mosquitoes – DSV
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Trump Calls for an Oath to America. You mean like the Pledge of Allegiance? – D.S.
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Video: Hijra – Islamic Migration – B.B.
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Hugh’s Quote of the Day:
“One who uses coercion is guilty of deliberate violence. Coercion is inhuman.” – Mahatma Gandhi
Notes for Thursday – September 01, 2016
September is Kilted to Kick Cancer Month. It was a wise move, not picking January. (Brrrr!) September is also National Preparedness Month.
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Today, we present another entry for Round 66 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
- Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
- A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
- A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
- A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
- A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
- A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
- RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
- American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
- Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
Round 66 ends on September 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
The Bride of Christ in An Apocalyptic World- Part 3, by R.B.
What Needs To Be Done?
There are numerous books available to assist people who have begun to prepare themselves for the coming catastrophe. Indeed, prepping has become an “industry” in some respects, as many have come to the realization that the government will not be able to step in and solve everyone’s problems in the face of a true national disaster. Just ask the folks in New Orleans who suffered through the comparatively short-term disaster of Hurricane Katrina. At the end of this article, I will provide a brief and rather incomplete bibliography of some of the publications that I have found most helpful.
What follows is a brief outline of things that pastors and congregations can do to help each other prepare for the likely coming disaster.
- Every individual family in the congregation needs to prepare for their own survival:
This is not the time to become a Lutheran “commune” in which all resources are pooled together and commonly used. Such an approach might work if all your members lived on a common plot of land, but to my knowledge no congregation does! Distance between members and distance from the church facilities normally dictates acting independently as families. However, for those who do not have the means to prepare, the community/family of the congregation need to assist while letting each family also take responsibility for themselves to the greatest extent possible.
- Prepping for families focuses on basic needs for survival:
- Obtaining an available supply of safe drinking water.
- Advance obtaining of food suitable for long-term storage.
- Cultivating the ability to raise various kinds of food on an on-going basis.
- Obtaining of specific tools that do not require electricity to operate.
- Obtaining of extensive first aid training and equipment.
- Ability to defend one’s self and family against looting raiders.
- Prepping as a congregation will be very different for urban and rural congregations.
Perhaps the last place anyone would want to be in the event of a catastrophic event such as those discussed above is in a large metropolitan area or anywhere near an Interstate Highway. Within 24 to 72 hours following an EMP, for example, most grocery stores will be completely stripped of their products and no more will be coming in. Within two weeks, most people will use up whatever food they normally have in the house and serious looting and scavenging will begin. Large urban areas already experience high crime rates, gang violence, and random shootings. Well armed, organized gangs already exist in the cities, and when disaster strikes they will be the ones most equipped to survive but at the expense of others.
By the end of two weeks, most law enforcement will be totally overwhelmed and unable to respond to calls for help, especially in the cities. Moreover, there will be no telephone service to make that call. For the same reasons, there will be no health services available for the victims of such crimes or for injuries incurred for any other reason. Virtually everyone will be on their own. The government will not be coming to your rescue.
Once the cities have been looted of goods, the Interstate Highways will become what many preparedness writers have described as “Highways of Death”. As gangs of looters range out of the cities, any home or community adjacent to any Interstate or other major Highway will become the next targets of choice. The longer such gangs exist, the more experienced and ruthless they will become. It would behoove any town adjacent to a large metropolitan area or near any major highway to take extraordinary measures to protect their community.
This is precisely why many preppers have gone to the extreme measure of relocating their families to more rural areas. Obviously, it’s not likely that entire congregations can do that, so they must become self-sustaining, self-defending, extended families within urban and rural areas to the greatest extent possible. Families may need to double up and combine resources for both subsistence and self-defense. This will be true for both rural and urban congregations. It might be well for families living in more exposed and vulnerable housing to make plans in advance with willing congregational families living in more isolated and less vulnerable housing to double up together when a crisis begins. Prepping supplies might well be pre-positioned at the retreat setting for those families willing and able to double up. Plans within urban and rural congregations need to be well thought out and executed in such fashion that when disaster strikes they are prepared to act as one to help one another through it. Special attention should be given to single parent families, widows, and others with special needs to arrange for alternative housing with other congregational members.
- Extraordinary measures to ensure that God’s people are served with Word and Sacrament ministry by a properly called pastor may need to be taken:
For more rural congregations and communities the possibilities are much improved. Rural areas are already filled with folks to see their communities as a kind of extended family to which loyalty and responsibility is owed. Such congregations and communities can work together much easier in the face of calamity to help each other out, defend their communities from outside looters, arrange for local law and order, and do what needs to be done to retain the fabric and character of civilization to the greatest extent possible.
For congregations in any location whose members live at distances from the church facilities that are simply too far to walk, plans will need to be made for the establishment of home churches in the parish. It is suggested that pastors work with heads of households to prepare themselves for conducting worship for their families for at least the first year of the crisis. This will require the pre-crisis congregation to offer training, materials, and guidance on the best way to accomplish this goal. If possible, the original called pastor of the local pre-crisis congregation could act as a “circuit rider” traveling from home church to home church, if this can be done safely and without risking the well-being of his own family.
Should the crisis exceed one year (which is very likely in the event of an EMP or any other societal collapse scenario), or if the pre-crisis congregational pastor does not survive or abandons his post, the possibility will exist that each home church may need to establish itself as its own congregation. Lutheran theology respecting the nature of the Church and the Office of the Pastor can serve as a great help in such extreme circumstances.
If separate small home churches need to be established, it would be helpful if pre-crisis pastors and congregations could identify and train those laymen in advance, who would then be called as pastors by the constituency they would serve if such measures are needed. Calling procedures in such circumstances should be prepared in advance by the pre-crisis pastor and congregation. It is strongly recommended that during the first year of the crisis (or until the pre-crisis pastor is no longer available) that home churches refrain from celebrating the Lord’s Supper until a properly called pastor may be installed.
It may be possible that some hybrid version of this arrangement might be worked out in which laymen provide readings from Scripture, sing hymns, and do a Bible study, and on a given schedule the called pastor could travel to each home church for a celebration of the Lord’s Supper. The original pre-crisis called pastor could serve as “bishop” exercising ecclesiastical supervision for the newly “minted” pastors and provide continuing education for them as circumstances permit.
Even the provision of the elements for the Lord’s Supper will require some attention. Sufficient supplies of wine will need to be acquired to last for perhaps three years, unless someone in the parish is talented in that regard and has his own vineyard. (Note: Dandelion, Elderberry, or Blackberry wine are not acceptable!) Unleavened bread can be made easily; styrofoam-like wafers are not required! Fortunately, properly stored wine only gets better with storage! (Note: Be sure to store wine in a cool place or it will spoil!)
- It should go without saying that pastors must catechize their people especially for a time when “normal” church life might become impossible. Special attention needs to be paid to all articles of doctrine but especially:
a. the doctrine of the Church
b. the doctrine of the Office of the Ministry
c. the doctrine of the Lord’s Supper & Closed Communion
d. the doctrine of Holy Baptism
- Selected books for a small theological library will need to be acquired for each potential home church.
- Five-ten copies of the Bible for each home church in the same translation.
- Five-ten copies of Luther’s Small Catechism With Explanation, Concordia Publishing House, St. Louis, MO., 1986.
- At least one set of Francis Pieper’s, Christian Dogmatics,vol. 1-4, Concordia Publishing House, St. Louis, MO. 1950.
- Five-ten copies of Concordia: The Lutheran Confessions, Second Ed., Concordia Publishing House, St. Louis, MO., 2006.
- One concordance for the translation of Holy Scripture selected.
- A copy of Walther’s Law & Gospel: How to Read and Apply the Bible, Concordia Publishing House, St. Louis, MO. 2010.
- A copy of Martin Chemnitz’s The Lord’s Supper, Trans. J.A.O. Preus, Concordia Publishing House, St. Louis, MO. 1979.
- A copy of the two volume set of The Lutheran Bible Companion, Concordia Publishing House, St. Louis, MO., 2014.
- Five – ten copies of either The Lutheran Hymnal (1941) or the Lutheran Service Book (2006), Concordia Publishing House, St. Louis, MO.,
Pre-crisis pastors will need to impress upon all their people (but especially those who will serve as the leaders/pastors of each home church) that fellowship at the Lord’s Table requires agreement in every article of Christian doctrine and that, crisis or no crisis, the standard for admittance to the Lord’s Table must not be compromised. Fellowship at the Lord’s Table is Church fellowship. Unity at the altar includes doctrinal unity. It is simply adequate instruction and agreement that is required for fellowship. Friends and neighbors can be instructed and confirmed prior to participation at the Lord’s Table.
Without doubt there will be many unforeseen circumstances that this writer cannot anticipate, and thus part of a congregation’s preparation needs to be a forum for those topics as they come up. Ironically, this kind of preparation will benefit the congregation by helping them to understand themselves as a “family”, helping them to see and provide for the critical need for the Word and Sacraments, and helping them to understand the pastoral office and its critical part in the life of a congregation, whatever its size.
The Bride of Christ will weather whatever storm comes its way. She survived the persecution of Roman Emperors and the persecution as religious minorities in Muslim and other non-Christian societies; she will survive whatever rigors may come with a modern day societal collapse and whatever trials may accompany the events leading up to our Lord’s return. Ultimately, our hope is in Christ alone, in whose hand history rests and in whose hand our ultimate victory is assured.
“And he shewed me a pure river of water of life, clear as crystal, proceeding out of the throne of God and of the Lamb. In the midst of the street of it, and on either side of the river, was there the tree of life, which bare twelve manner of fruits, and yielded her fruit every month: and the leaves of the tree were for the healing of the nations. And there shall be no more curse: but the throne of God and of the Lamb shall be in it; and his servants shall serve him: and they shall see his face; and his name shall be in their foreheads. And there shall be no night there; and they need no candle, neither light of the sun; for the Lord God giveth them light: and they shall reign for ever and ever.”- Revelation 22:1-5 (ESV)
Bibliography
Non-Fiction Books/Publications Outlining the Possible Reality of the Coming Disaster:
1. Blackout Wars: State Initiatives to Achieve Preparedness Against An Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Catastrophe, Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, Task Force on National and Homeland Security, 2015.
4. Rickards, James; The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System, Portfolio/Penguin Group, 2014.
5. Rickards, James; Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, Portfolio/Penguin Group, 2012.
Non-Fiction Books/Publications Outlining Specific Ways to Prepare for the Coming Disaster:
1. Rawles, James Wesley, How To Survive the End of the World As We Know It, a Plume Book, Penguin Group, New York, NY, 2009.
2. Rawles, James Wesley, Tools for Survival: What You Need To Survive When You’re On Your Own, A Plume Book, 2015.
3. Pennington, Tess; The Prepper’s Blueprint: The Step-By-Step Guide to Help You Prepare For Any Disaster, First Ed., CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2014.
4. Werner, David; Where There Is No Doctor: A Village Health Care Handbook, Hesperian Health Guides, Berkley, CA., 2011.
5. Dickson, Murray, Where There Is No Dentist, Hesperian Health Guides, Berkley, CA., 2012.
6. Alton, Joseph, The Survival Medicine Handbook, 2nd Edition, Doom and Bloom LLC, 2013.
7. Back To Basics, Ed. Abigail R. Gehring, Skyhorse Publishing, Inc., 2008.
8. Snuffy, Joe; Suburban Survival: Preparing for Socio-Economic Collapse, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2013.
Fiction Books to Assist With Establishing a Mindset For Preparation:
1. Forstchen, William R., One Second After, Tom Doherty Associates Publisher, 2009.
2. Forstchen, William R., One Year After, A Forge Book, Tom Doherty Associates Publisher, 2015.
3. Gorham, Ray, 77 Days In September, Ray Gorham copyright, 2011.
4. Rawles, James Wesley, Patriots, Ulysses Press, Berkley, CA, 2009.
5. Crawford, David, Lights Out, Halffast Publishing, Texas, USA, 2010.
Letter Re: I’m Not In The Position To Right Now
Hugh,
The last section of this article had me in stitches; the writer really knows his stuff. I could picture his ex-wife, the same as many people I know going through what he described. I myself am not as self sufficient as I should be, but I have a good start and understand the sacrifice and learning one must make to get there. Because I do know people who have made snarky remarks about my “life style” and because I do have many people that think because I now live on 14 acres, I can provide for all, I have decided that the next time I hear that infernal statement of “I’ll just go to your place when it hits the fan”, I will simply thank them profusely and give them a pre-prepared list of things that they must bring when they are on their way to my place, a list not unlike James Wesley, Rawles “How to Survive the End of the World As We Know It”, maybe not as long as the book but a lengthy list none the less. I have a friend who stated to me that if it did hit the fan and things got so bad that she and her boyfriend/living partner would prefer to die than go through it. I should get that in writing to show her when they try to come on over. Honestly folks, God has given us life. It is up to us to fight for it with whatever He has given us. For me, I know that I can not do it alone. God has always provided for me, and I also know people that I can partner up with. Together we can hopefully survive it. As they say, God helps those who help themselves, and what blesses one blesses all. Thank you for my daily read, CN
Economics and Investing:
There isn’t any new news here, other than a growing recognition of the forthcoming pension crisis at many levels (city, county, state, federal). Pension disappointment: National solutions to a global problem (Note: requires membership to view link.) – P.S.
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Is Elon Musk Taking Advantage Of Solar City Investors? Elon Musk recently purchased $65 million of SolarCity debt, a decision that may disturb shareholders in SolarCity and Tesla, who see the investment as a warning sign.
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Hanjin Shipping goes down. Global Supply Chains Paralyzed After World’s 7th Largest Container Shipper Files Bankruptcy, Assets Frozen – P.S.
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Video: PEOPLE ARE EATING ZOO ANIMALS! Venezuela’s Crisis Explained
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Germans “Lose Faith In Banks”, Rush To Buy Safes – G.L.
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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.
Odds ‘n Sods:
All the Ways Your Wi-Fi Router Can Spy on You – B.B.
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The Clinton Body Count Mounts – DSV
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Several readers sent in this link about the ATF changing the rules on nitrocellulose storage as a backdoor attempt to regulate firearms. The NRA-ILA had this update on the issue: ATF Delays Any Changes to Nitrocellulose Regulation
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An indicator of things to come: Ultra-violent gangs thrive in chaotic Venezuela despite crackdown – P.S.
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Reichstag Rubicon: Homeland eyes special declaration to take charge of elections – GJM
Hugh’s Quote of the Day:
“The end of the law is, not to abolish or restrain, but to preserve and enlarge freedom.” – John Locke
Notes for Wednesday – August 31, 2016
August 31st, 1992 is the day that Randy Weaver surrendered to the Federal Authorities, ending the 10 day siege on Ruby Ridge. This is the incident that preceded the Waco siege and is known for the unconstitutional rules of engagement and overzealous actions by the jack booted thugs of the federal authorities that resulted in the death of two innocent people– Sammy and Vicki Weaver, Randy’s son and wife. It is notable that Randy was acquitted of all charges, except missing a court date and violating bail conditions, on an ATF sting operation where it is suspected that Mr. Weaver did nothing wrong but that the ATF informant altered the shotguns sold to him by Weaver resulting in Weaver’s arrest. In addition, the missed court date was due to clerical errors on behalf of the court. All involved Federal agencies were publicly reprimanded, and the state of Idaho attempted to press charges against some individuals for their actions but were stymied due to federal interference.
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Today, we present another entry for Round 66 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
- Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
- A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
- A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
- A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
- A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
- A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
- RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
- American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
- Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
Round 66 ends on September 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
The Bride of Christ in An Apocalyptic World- Part 2, by R.B.
What Would This Mean For Christ’s Bride– The Church?
While all of this is frightening and should give us pause respecting the fragility of our civilization, what would such potential events mean for the Bride of Christ– the Church? While Scripture tells us that even the gates of hell cannot prevail against the Church of Christ Jesus, that does not mean that His Bride will not suffer in this world. The genocide we see of Christians and their culture in the Muslim world should prove the point. It should be remembered that we still live in the Church Militant, not the Church Triumphant.
What follows is, of course, speculative but should provide a basis for pondering what our Lord’s Church might look like and act like in such dire circumstances as those described above. More importantly, it might give some impetus for congregations to prepare their members for the potential coming catastrophe, whatever its form.
Some likely possibilities for the Church:
- Synods and denominations would likely cease to function as institutions.
For starters, in the event of an EMP attack, there would be no means of either communication or transportation beyond that of walking or riding horseback, unless you have a very old car without an electronic ignition, and then you wouldn’t be able to obtain gasoline because the gas pumps would not be functioning. Second, since all electronic communications devices and services (TV, radio, Internet, and Postal Service) would fail, there would be no means by which church body institutions could communicate with their members. Every individual congregation that could still function would be completely on their own as no districts or national church institutions would be able to assist them. Ecclesiastical supervision by church bodies would cease to exist.
- Most congregations would likely be unable to serve most of their members.
If congregants only have the ability to walk, traveling to worship services would become virtually impossible for most members and dangerous for all. Gone are the days when churches were located about five or six miles apart to enable their members to attend on horseback. Many church facilities will simply become impractical to maintain.
- Home churches would multiply with heads of households and collections of neighbors gathering for worship, following the initial on-set of troubles. Those who survive the initial terrors of the on-set of societal collapse would eventually gather with friends and family members who live close by for worship. Early on, even this gathering of local groups might prove too dangerous and worship would be confined to the home. Such emerging “mini-congregations” would need to deal with pastoral issues, doctrinal issues, communion issues, and worship issues that are inherent in being thrown together with others of varying beliefs and practices. The temptation to downplay doctrine to a lowest common denominator would be very difficult to resist.
- While many faithful pastors would remain to serve their congregations, some would not and many could not. Additionally, pastors, like all others, would be preoccupied with helping their own families survive.
Both for the clergy and the laity, this would be a time of separating the proverbial wheat from the chaff. Those who are truly faithful will do all in their power to continue some form of congregational life, but others will abandon their calls or laymen their participation in the congregation. In some cases, the congregation will abandon the parish, leaving the pastor without a congregation to serve. In other cases where the clergy abandon their call, whatever form of congregation remains will need to understand that they need to call a pastor to serve as their shepherd, even if it is from the men of the congregation. Congregations need a rightly called pastor to be the Church. Surviving retired pastors in a community might become sought after resources.
- As time passes after the collapse, congregations in local regions will need to find ways to provide a theological education to those men desiring to serve as pastors.
Just as the German Lutheran settlers of Perry County, Missouri, in the 19th century founded a log cabin seminary, so too would the Bride of Christ in local areas need to find a way to train pastors for the feeding of God’s sheep by qualified men. Theological libraries would need to be established as best as possible, utilizing pastor’s libraries as a primary source for texts and pastors as the primary instructors. Rather than succumb to the temptation to take shortcuts in theological education, strict standards of preparation need to be kept for the sake of God’s people.
How Can Congregations Prepare For These Coming Events?
St. Paul writes in Romans 8:28, “And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to his purpose.” Even in the event of a societal collapse, God will use the terrible things that happen to draw His people closer to His Word and Sacraments, thus giving spiritual strengthening and nourishment to His potential flock. Perhaps the first thing that a pastor and his congregation can do to prepare for the coming catastrophe is to understand that God is still God no matter the circumstances in which His people find themselves.
It should be obvious that a good under shepherd of Christ would help his congregation prepare for disaster, especially since it is clear that the current economic trajectory of this nation simply cannot be sustained much longer and the risk of a nuclear EMP attack grows with every news cycle. It is also true that our world has become immeasurably more dangerous with acts of terrorism driven by Satan’s Muslim followers occurring even in our own country and perhaps even in our own communities. Additionally, rogue international bad actors, like Iran and North Korea, have plainly told us of their intentions to destroy America and Christianity and have made it clear that they will do whatever they need to do to keep their word. We really ought to believe them!
What steps can be taken by local pastors and congregations to prepare for a possible societal collapse?
First, realize that among your own congregations are a few (perhaps many) of your members who are already “Preppers”. A Prepper is a person who has intentionally begun to lay aside food and supplies in order to help their family survive a possible societal collapse. For the most part, such folks are not “crazy” nor do they wear “tinfoil hats”. They are rational men and women who have simply chosen to see what’s headed their way and are taking actions for their families to survive it.
In a congregation, already existing Preppers are an invaluable resource for others who have decided that events are likely coming that require preparation. Preppers have been there and done that. Most Preppers want to live in a community in which most people are Preppers, because if they are not, then when the worst comes even fellow neighbors and church members can become deadly enemies as they seek to provide the necessities of life for their families. Hungry people will kill one another to keep themselves and their children fed.
In many ways, congregations of God’s people are the perfect Prepper communities! They already share the Christian faith, which enables them to see one another as true brothers and sisters in Christ. They already care about one another and want to help those in need. They are, or should be, a “family” unto themselves. Congregational Prepping will only help to deepen that God-given bond. As is always the case, the congregation’s pastor must take the lead.
Prepping can’t be the pastor’s primary goal in the congregation. The pastor’s call is to teach the Word of God in all its purity and to administer the Sacraments in accord with Christ’s institution. That always comes first! The pastor is the chief catechist of the congregation, and the chief thing he is to teach is the Christian faith. However, Christian life is also a topic on a pastor’s plate. It will require some courage on the pastor’s part to actually bridge the prepping topic of conversation. He has to risk being seen as something of a “nut-case” by those members who simply will not see the dangers that are at our door and are subject to something called “normalcy bias”.
Wikipedia defines normalcy bias as “…a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the populace in its disaster preparations. The assumption that is made in the case of the normalcy bias is that since a disaster never has occurred, it never will occur. It can result in the inability of people to cope with a disaster once it occurs. People with a normalcy bias have difficulties reacting to something they have not experienced before. People also tend to interpret warnings in the most optimistic way possible, seizing on any ambiguities to infer a less serious situation.”
It seems fair to conclude that the United States federal government has a very bad case of normalcy bias, since it has chosen to ignore the clear warnings of its own EMP Commission and has done absolutely nothing to harden the public grid infrastructure of this nation, which the Commission estimated could be done for the relatively small amount of $20 billion dollars. At the same time, however, the U.S. military listened to the findings of the Congressional EMP reports and has taken some precautions to harden some of its electronic assets. Likewise, normalcy bias has prompted the continued downward spiral of our economy to be seen as a “new normal” and nothing to be concerned about. The erroneous conclusion by many in government is that continued deficit spending can continue indefinitely and that no day of reckoning need be contemplated.
As a pastor, you have likely proven that you are a Godly man of rational mind and of good heart. You’ve earned a hearing even on this subject. But if you are to have a congregation to serve, then the topic of societal collapse must become a secondary priority for you, even at some personal risk. The alternative is to watch your congregation literally kill each other off for food and then come after their prepping pastor’s family. Lutherans need to understand the true nature of original sin in order to adequately assess what can happen in such a national calamity, and Lutherans need to be taught again about the fundamental corporate nature of the Church. We are many parts but one body.
Pastor’s know how to approach their own congregations best. Perhaps you could approach your Board of Elders with this article and get their reaction to it as a first step. Another possibility would be to put this article in your church newsletter as a way of opening the conversation. You might consider using the topic of the Church Militant as a Bible study for your adult class and bring the subject up. While I have no idea if the coming possible and likely catastrophe is part of the events leading up to the Second Coming of our Lord, I also don’t know that they wouldn’t be. I do know that we are now 2,000 years closer to our Lord’s return than we used to be and that Scripture tells us that things will be very difficult at the end, especially for His Bride, the Church. Whatever you have to do, do it! There’s simply too much at stake.