Old Farmer wrote an excellent piece. As he noted, each area is different and has its own patterns. I have spent decades as a pilot and have learned to read the weather fairly well. A couple of tips the Farmer left out:
1. If you place your left shoulder into the wind (or the direction from which the clouds are moving) you are facing into an area of low pressure. This is useful in locating the source of bad weather. For example, if your weather generally moves in from the west and you have a wind coming in from the North-Northeast, the low has passed your location and the worst of the weather was north of you. (Quite common in Houston).
2. Cloud thickness [generally] determines precipitation:
- If the cloud is less than about 1000 feet thick, no precipitation
- If the cloud is between about 1,500 feet and 3,500 feet drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible
- Between 3,500 feet and 7,500 feet intermittent precipitation
- Between 7,500 feet and 10,000 feet moderate precipitation
- Above 10,000 feet moderate to heavy precipitation
You can get a good estimate of the cloud thickness based on height. Depending on temperatures you can guess as to whether you’re going to see rain or frozen precipitation. (Temperature drops about 2.7 degrees F per thousand feet in humid air. The base of the cloud is located where the dew point and the temperature meets.)
Keep a notebook of weather observations using entries like Old Farmer used in his example. One of the greatest finds was that British sea captains of the 1800s recorded weather observations in their ships’ logs and those logs still exist. The data has been priceless to researchers. For the individual, if I watch the weather channel, note the weather across the US, and the forecast, and then note how the weather plays out here; I now have a really good idea of how weather is going to play out at my home for a given set of conditions. I’m usually more accurate than the weather folks.
Final Note:
Weather is a “chaotic” system in the scientific meaning of that term. Extremely small variations can make huge differences in outcome. The old saw about a butterfly flapping its wings in Norway means hurricanes in Florida the next year is close to the truth. I say this just to re-emphasize Old Farmer’s point about being prepared. It is a scientific impossibility to ever get the weather 100% accurate, even with the best computers we can imagine. Always be prepared for it to get much, much worse than expected. The folks in Florida learned this lesson the hard way from Hurricane Andrew.
Excellent posts and the caution about relying on our technology to keep us safe is very good advice. – Capt Bart