Letter: Elderberry and Wuhan

Dear SurvivalBloggers:
Just a quick note concerning Elderberry syrup and the Wuhan coronavirus (now named “COVID-19”) that I didn’t want to get lost in the extensive comments about the virus at https://survivalblog.com/post-exposure-prevention-pep-protocol-jj-mi/ and https://survivalblog.com/letter-wuhan-virus-shepherdfarmergeek/ :

  1. Normally, with flu, elderberry syrup is a positive and helps fight the virus.https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190423133644.htm“Sambucol Elderberry Extract and its formulations activate the healthy immune system by increasing inflammatory cytokine production.”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11399518

  1. However, “…elderberry also enhances cytokine response, which may not be so good when one of the complications of pandemic influenza is cytokine storm.”

https://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/high-dose-vitamin-d-and-elderberry-syrup-for-flu-treatment

  1. And here we have that immune dysfunction also showing up with COVID-19

“In most moribund [dying] patients, 2019-nCoV infection is also associated with a cytokine storm…”

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30305-6/fulltext

See this video at 19:42 for a description of what a cytokine storm does:

“Zhou Zheng (周正), an expert in respiratory medicine at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University in Hunan Province, said one feature of 2019-nCoV infection is that patients can develop moderate symptoms in the first two days of infection but can become seriously ill on the third day or later. Attributing this to the phenomenon of cytokine storm — a high level of circulating inflammatory cytokines — Zhou said the novel coronavirus can stimulate the body’s immune system, which can further damage the cells. “A normal immune system protects, but an over-active immune system can not only damage the lungs but also other organs, including the kidneys, liver and heart,” he said.”

JWR Adds: The cytokine storm syndrome explains why the Spanish Flu killed nearly as many young people as it did elderly ones. I’ve now come to the conclusion that there is now no way to stop the Wuhan Virus from becoming widespread in the U.S. Canada, and Mexico. There will probably be successive waves of it, in 2020, 2021, and possibly beyond. During the worst of those outbreaks, we must be prepared to hunker down in family isolation. And of course a good healthy diet, exercise, a regular sleep schedule, proper hydration, and consistent intake of vitamins C and D3 as well as Magnesium will be crucial. And for any of you readers who still smoke or vape: You must quit completely now, or your statistical chances of surviving a COVID-19 infection are quite low.

https://focustaiwan.tw/sci-tech/202002090008

  1. Moral of the story: Elderberry syrup, a prime tool in the arsenal against seasonal flu, might not be helpful against this Wuhan coronavirus. Might even make it worse. It’s probably too soon to tell, so keep a watch out for news about a connection.
  2. Note that melatonin apparently has an influence on the immune system that might reduce the potential for a cytokine storm (if you’re a mouse at least), and other herbs and supplements may have the ability to rein in the immune system overreaction (in a worst-case scenario where professional medical care is unavailable):

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1756464619302452?via%3Dihub

Trust God. Be prepared. We can do both!

– ShepherdFarmerGeek

 




40 Comments

  1. Good news about CoVid-19

    There is almost daily improvement in what there is known about the virus. There are 3, or more big take-aways in this video. This is first class stuff:

    New Blood Plasma Treatment Offers Hope For Those Infected With The Coronavirus
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWJHXTnodS0

    Two points of good news, and one bad. Plasma transfusions from those who have recovered is having some success. Second is that there is no strong correlation with smoking and outcomes, and third and the bad news, the disease (CoVid-19) dis-proportionally effects those 45 and older, 52 being the median. Age is a major risk factor. And there is other important information as well.

    Comparisons to the Spanish Flu, if no other defining information is available, can be made in the broader sense, yet this is something different. A Hong Kong doctor believes re-infection is possible, and more likely to be more sever, and more likely to cause death the second time around. The cytokine storm causes the general inflammation and subsequent pneumonia, that is ARDS, Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. Yet there can be other complications involving the lining of blood vessel, arteries, and in the kidneys and heart that creates scaring, or fibrosis. Those with heart disease would be more vulnerable. And then there is other unknown causes of death. Of course opportunistic bacterial infections that would mostly be in the lower respiratory track is possible. It is certainly something we do not want to get.

    It is quietly spreading around the country. They lost the containment battle several weeks ago, and they lost the opportunity to slow the spread, so it will now be more likely to overwhelm our hospitals sooner rather than latter. Those reading the blog had early warning.

    1. With the news just now that an American couple that departed the Westerdam cruise ship in Cambodia has the virus, this is pretty bad. So many passengers have been allowed to depart to elsewhere already and it’s a given that many will likely carry the virus. As well, I’d imagine the US government will come under fire soon to relax its restrictions on travelers from China entering the US as it’s bad for the economy and tourism interests. A full blown Covid-19 pandemic here would appear to me to be far worse for the “economy “ but I don’t expect reason to prevail when Wall Street and other business interests put pressure on our government. Really not good.

      1. If COVID-19 fits the pattern of the Spanish Flu as discussed, and probably forgotten as it has been weeks ago since my earliest posts, or if it resembles the typical life cycle of viruses, it may ‘peak’ here in the U.S. about mid summer. During a peak, the numbers of sick and dead, spike. Given only a 3% death rate over the life cycle of the Spanish Flu, they were overwhelmed with a massive influx of sick and dying. This is the period when bodies were stacked curb side in some cities to be buried in mass graves, and the account of the number who died went unrecorded as officials were overwhelmed. The actual death rate might be closer to 5% than 2%. Duration of the first wave of the epidemic in the U.S. was more than 9 months. The record is not clear. Duration of the peak was about 60 days. It peaked in different parts of the world at different times, and there was a second wave though out the world. It also behaved differently in different climates, and tended to be most virulent in the warmer and humid regions.
        How far we can take this comparison to COVID-19 is questionable, yet the Spainsh Flu is the best documented. However, CoVid-19 is genetically 98% like Bat SARS of 2003, yet is not 100%. The last 2% can make a huge difference. It was originally referred to as the Novel Corona Virus. ‘Novel’ means unique, or unrelated to the previous and known. There is more evidence that it is likely a man made virus, as opposed to being a naturally occurring Corona virus. GGHD provided the link to the genetic code of the virus that was removed from the net. I downloaded a copy, and the observations made. There are the tell tale signs, or ‘finger prints’ that insertions of genomes were artificial, typical of a man made virus.

        Here are my favorite and proven sources:

        Peak Prosperity is indeed the most accurate source. Haven’t missed one yet.
        https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG-iSMVtWbbwDDXgXXypARQ

        MedCram is another with a focus on medicine.
        https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG-iSMVtWbbwDDXgXXypARQ

        Mike Adams of Natural News is ahead of the game, and puts out many though provoking videos for visionary types.
        https://ce-publiclw.naturalnews.com/ct.asp?id=788040FC4BD70432D5A92AC3E935FBDDE7EA28CC9F1097A5E7203942EF197031D6679338086E42A5B559F0B18FAADA4B9BB58937F97DBCF47F1D1B49F727F08C&ct=4aeUsxsAAABCWmgzMUFZJlNZZ12IlAAABJmAAAGAECpH3oAgADFDTTAAU02oBtTahQD%2bjDRog9lFOt2Cafi7kinChIM67ESg

        Alex Jones lead the charge, and was the first to call it.
        https://tv.infowars.com/index/display/category/dailyshows/id/10406

  2. This all depends on whether or not the new Coronavirus is causing a cytokine storm or not. I haven’t heard anything definitively either way. But as a cytokine storm is most likely to be triggered by those with top notch reactive immune systems which tends to be teens and young adults, if this virus was triggering this I’d expect to see most of the fatalities among the younger members of the population. Although there have been reports of deaths in young adults, most notably 34 y/o Dr Li, most of the reported deaths have been among older people and those with underlying health issues. This does make me believe that at least at this time, the current form of the virus is perhaps not unleashing a cytokine storm. I don’t know this for sure, and sadly the country with the ability to tell us this due to their high infection numbers is China, which conveys dubious and often erroneous info to their own citizens as well as to other countries. And of course this virus will likely mutate over time so who knows?

  3. JWR,

    Unfortunately I think you are spot on with your analysis that the virus will impact the US and we could see “waves”.

    The question that we all need to ask ourselves, answer and then act upon is “HOW or What, will be the ramifications of this virus spreading across the US?” Now is the time to ask you Boss if the company has a continuity of operations plan (COOP). Is possible that employees can tele-commute (work from home)? What happens if that is not an option for employees? Lay-offs? If your laid off how will that impact your life? If your employer continues to operate will they provide N95 mask and other PPE? This will impact our economy, how bad will be determined by the actions/planning we and our employers do now. One of the BIGGEST impact we will see is childcare as schools and daycares close their doors. That will impact the economy big time. Do schools have a back up plan for teaching online? If you don’t home school now can you? There are many impacts that will affect us we need to think like a chess player to get ahead of them.

  4. Excellent postings on both letters. Gets you thinking and asking God for His blessings. Also when we’re prepping we really don’t know if we’re ever going to use those things stocked on our shelves. However, the box of 100 N95 masks with exhale valves were 1/10 th the coat of what amazon is selling them for today. Thanks JWR.

    Economy. I’ve put in an order to sell my stock in my 401K for select industries which will be effected by China’s factories not cranking out “stuff”. I did happen to repurchase stock in orders for pharmaceuticals. I’m sorry but I know a good prepper shouldn’t own stock but the companies I’ve worked for in the past had almost 10% matching. But I can’t sell my 401K outright until age 59.5 so I have to be wise steward of my portfolio that I mange personally. Word to the wise out there about 401K and 403Bs and their families the federal government he you bound until retirement or else about 30% penalty and interest fees for breaking that obligation. I recommend if you must own stock to set up an account with one of the online brokers and play the Wall Street casino that way as you’re under no obligation to keep your money in the market till retirement age.

    1. X Lib.-

      This is the type of forethought and action I’m talking about. People forget that in 1929 not all stocks went belly up- some win some lose. Several years ago we took sold all but 1 IRA. The other 2 are all cash. The earning potential isn’t there BUT the risk isn’t there as well. We have decided to focus at wealth preservation primarily at our age.

      I am thanking the Lord that he Blessed is by getting us out of the city! I keep thinking about Pastor Joe Fox’s frequent Bible quote about come out of her my people thus you partake in her sins and plagues.

    2. Hey X Lib, for folks stuck in 401K’s, you can still invest in silver and gold via SLV and GLD which are “paper” gold and silver but still a good option for those who don’t want to withdraw their funds just yet.

      1. 3AD Scout,

        Good option as with most 401K/403B families when you liquidate your shares of stock it resides in a money market. It is a catch all for your next investment temptation. The FED doesn’t penalize you for leaving it liquidated in the money market for any length of time.

        St. Funogas,

        I have no interest in paper PM–Precious Metals. There are so many gold portfolios today that currently there is 1/billionth the amounts of Gold in the world to pay out those claims. For me it is a risky slope. Remember a corporation will pay its creditors and shareholders first in a liquidation… a corporation “has” physical and tangible assets [exception the DOT.com corporations as why they caused a collapse in early 2000s having no tangible assets but only a promise to make money in the future].

        Since becoming a student of JWR Economics, our most favored stock is in the Lord, then family, then preps. I was educated under the falsehood of getting a good education [college] and then a good job, and invest in the stock market for a comfortable retirement… public school teaching Bull Skreet. We have since changed our approach to life.

  5. Good post ShepherdFarmerGeek.

    At one time I was “cautiously optimistic” this would not get to epidemic stage in the U.S. but now I believe there’s a very high probability it will.

    The CDC is either not counting all the evacuees as “people of interest” on their website tally or they are not planning on actually testing all of them. The idea of merely “screening” people is ludicrous based on the possibility, no matter how remote, that symptomless carriers may exist. But there is already mounting evidence that there are symptomless carriers. Not that I ever had much confidence in the CDC to begin with, but I thought I’d at least give them the benefit of the doubt in the beginning. And if you haven’t followed the CDC, they make an announcement at 11:00 to say they’re going to make an announcement at 15:00 that there’s a new Covid 19 case in the US. Instead of just releasing it to the press the minute they have the news, they have to turn it into a three-ring circus. That’s why, when it does arrive here in full force, the CDC is going to become a big stumbling block and make it even more difficult than it would otherwise be, a bunch of tin hats standing in the way instead of letting the professionals do their jobs.

    The U.S. Medical Industrial Complex is not going to handle this any better than China has, and I am guessing they will do worse if we have an epidemic number of cases in the tens of millions. U.S. hospitals won’t have a million extra hospital beds any more than China did. Communist Chinese workers don’t have the option of staying home, going on strike, or calling in sick. So far, at least 1,800 of them are known to have become infected with the virus and some have died. If we have those kinds of numbers of healthcare workers in the U.S. become infected, are the rest going to just keep punching their time cards? Some will, some won’t. Some will pack their BOB and get outta Dodge. It’s going to get interesting.

    Like JWR said, we should at least prepare for the possibility of hunkering down in family isolation if the coronavirus gets to epidemic levels here. Fortunately, we’ll have a lot more factual information and a lot less speculation by the time it gets to that stage here, but now is the time to be preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

    1. St Funogas,

      If we look at the demographics the big cities in our region of the country, we can get a rough idea of the how the pandemic might unfold in that of the country.

      Of course if one is well removed from even sparely populated regions, the odds are in your favor. :O) If it gets really bad, I’ll relocate to an even more remote location. Percentage of those of Asian decent, a mix of Chinese and all other Asian countries.

      Calgary, 20%

      Vancouver, Canada, 43%

      Portland (Happy Valley), OR, 18% Highest in OR.

      San Francisco,CA, 33%

      Bellvue, WA, 35% Highest in WA.

      Spokane, WA, 2%

      Seattle, WA, !4%

      Coeur D’alene, ID, <1%

      Moscow, ID, 3.4% Highest in Idaho.

      Kalispell, MT, 1%

      Missoula, MT, 1%

      Bozeman, MT, 2.5% Highest in Montana

      1. The disparity might not be all genetic. I’d really like to see a cross-correlation of the infection rates for:
        Asian men who smoke
        Asian men who do not smoke
        Non-Asian men who smoke
        Non-Asian men who do not smoke

        1. Agree. Empirical study is really necessary, yet will only be available after the fact, so we must operate on educated guesses at the moment, but mostly common sense, or critical thinking skills. If critical thinking is involved, wild speculation will be reduced. In the near future more data will come available from the cruise ships.

          It is generally wise to assume that smoking is hazardous to one’s health, and in particular to the lungs and cardio pulmonary function. Common sense can somewhat make up for the gap in scientific facts sorely lacking here. However, I would not want to ignore, or throw out any unpopular or contraindicating data, as it is nonetheless what it is, data. Wild conjecture, or an obscure hypothesis that happens to gain notoriety can confuse the matter as well as it adds, yet another competing and unsubstantiated view, however well formed. Yet, it’s about all we got to work with, so I’ll put it under consideration and see if it fits. It might prove to be true in time.

          If it is true that the primary mechanism of the disease is to attach to Ace 2 sites, and there are more Ace 2 sites in Asians, then the disease may by happenstance, not necessarily by design, tend to infect Asians at a greater rate, both male and female. However, all humans have Ace 2 receptor sites. One potentially creditable source finds no correlation between smoking and infection rates in Chinese males living in a particular Provence of China. If there is no hidden agenda in this clinical data from China, this might add weight to an argument not to draw any conclusions based upon Asian males, who smoke, or do not smoke. Could it be that smoking damages, and reduces the number Ace2 receptor sites? If so, then the 98% of Chinese females who do not smoke would be more susceptible to infection. However, common sense says, that if 48% of Chinese males smoke, they would be more prone to die from the disease given a reduction in their lungs ability to absorb oxygen. Smoking is generally considered a risk factor regardless of ancestry. Smoking is considered by Western medicine to be the 5th most significant factor in heart disease. However, there are other more important factors associated with the prevalence of heart disease. The CFR (case fatality rate) of this disease is strongly related to ARDS, and the actual cause of death might actually be congestive heart failure. Cardiovascular disease might be a stronger factor than smoking. The use of a ventilator and oxygen in the treatment of sever cases of COVID-19 to improve oxygen uptake, tells us how important is lung function is for success.

          The idea that the virus is race specific is yet unsubstantiated, and leads persons into a false sense of security, if one is not of Asian descent. Even though genetics is a very important factor in disease in general, including cardiovascular disease, I would be more concerned if I was a smoker, or smoked heavily in the past, or had personal history of cardiovascular disease that impaired cardio pulmonary function. Or a history of both and was older than 45. All humans have Ace 2 receptor sites The number of Ace 2 receptor sites might be considered a risk factor, and will likely be proven one day to be associated with genetics. However, some risk factors are more significant than others, and the sum would out weigh any single factor. It is better to add up the various risk factors to accurately predict who will become infected, and who will not. Note that the data from this source finds a strong correlation with age, and that advancing age is the most significant risk factor in this data set. It could be that young Chinese persons who smoke, are less likely to become infected than old non Asians who never smoked. The R0 (R-naught) might be lower in a country such as the U.S. for various reasons not related to a person’s ancestry, but more by population density, environment, general health, and behavior of a population in a given region.

          Here is my source. To save you time, the video starts at that point in the presentation concerning smoking as a risk factor. Of course this clinical data is from China, and is not peer reviewed, yet it is actual data, not popular hypothesis/conjecture.

          https://youtu.be/KWJHXTnodS0?t=668

      2. Jim, that’s the data I’d like to see too. Aside from mortality rates, that’s probably going to be the most interesting. Zero Hedge published this interesting chart today without a link, showing more data on the ACE2 receptor site by race, this time with a larger sample size.

        I spent an half an hour trying to track down an original source but couldn’t find one, even on the 1,000 Genomes Project website.

        Here’s the Zero Hedge link: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/title

        Tunnel Rabbit, the only local demographics of any concern is the one at this keyboard: 60+ male. Fortunately, never smoked. Not even the sushi restaurant in the next county has any Asian cooks.

        1. I failed to make clear that demographics might be an indicator of how soon the disease might appear in a region given a high or low number of persons of Asian descent that are present. Those who are of Chinese descent are more likely to be in contact with friends and relatives that may visit China and be infected. St. Funogas is very fortunate to live so far away from any population centers with a large number of persons of Asian descent. I am concerned that if the border between the U.S. and Canada is not closed, tourist traffic from Calgary will bring the disease into Lincoln County at a much faster rate, as this area is a popular tourist destination. Many Canadians own Summer homes here, and greatly improve the local economy, yet they will likely increase the prevalence of the disease in this area. If I must, I can move to an even more remote location.

      3. Smoking in China [From Wikipedia] =
        “Smoking in China is prevalent, as the People’s Republic of China is the world’s largest consumer and producer of tobacco: there are 350 million Chinese smokers, and China produces 42% of the world’s cigarettes.”
        *******************
        *******************
        There’s a lot of information on the Internet about equating Air Pollution to smoking a particular number of cigarettes each day. All the information is NOT in total agreement.

        We do know that Air Pollution is bad for overall health. We do know China has a large number of cigarette smokers, that smoke a lot.
        We do know cigarette smoking is bad for your health and lungs. [+Americans that went to school in the USA were required to take health courses, and were able to view photographs of Smoker Lungs.

        TunnelRabbit and others here are commenting about the smoking of cigarettes, and the horrid air pollution in China.
        Unfortunately, we need ~more information about the Wuhan China Flu/CoVid-19. Correlation and ~partial Causation of deaths in China might distort our understanding of the Flu.

        We do know, it’s time to prep for the worst. Survivalblog has recommendations for needed preps. [And the Survivalblog’s 1st commandant of survival: Stay/become ~ Healthy as you can be.]

        +SurvivalBlog is the best resources for the latest news about this deadly Flu.

  6. If elderberry syrup could do half of what is claimed for it then it would be a wonder drug and doctors would be prescribing it. Where are the double blind studies or is this all just more superstition?

    1. There is no money in it for Big Pharma, that’s why there are no studies. If you could take care of your self with what nature provides you could kill a multi billion dollar industry.

      1. Just Some Guy,
        You hit the nail on the head regarding Big Pharma. They can’t patent mother nature. They can unfortunately tamper with mother nature and then patent that. GMO = OMG! It’s also been called “God Move Over!” Avalanche Lily posted a link to Ice Age Farmer’s YouTube channel on a previous post that everybody needs to watch if they haven’t already.

    2. There have been double blind studies done.

      “Randomized study of the efficacy and safety of oral elderberry extract in the treatment of influenza A and B virus infections.”
      at the following link:
      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15080016

      and

      “In one placebo-controlled, double-blind study conducted by Israeli virologist Dr. Madeleine Mumcuoglu, 93.3% of the people taking an elderberry preparation reported significant improvement in influenza symptoms within 2 days of starting it, compared with the 6 days it took for the placebo group to see improvement.”
      which was cited in the following:
      Zakay-Rones Z, Varsano N, Zlotnik M, et al. Inhibition of several strains of influenza virus in vitro and reduction of symptoms by an elderberry extract (Sambucus Nigra L.) during an outbreak of Influenza B Panama. J Altern Complement Med. 1995;1(4):361–9

      and

      “In another randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study performed in Norway, researchers gave either a placebo syrup or elderberry syrup to patients who reported having flu-like symptoms for less than 48 hours. The results were similar to Dr. Mumcuoglu’s results. On average, the patients who received the elderberry syrup saw relief of symptoms 4 days earlier than the group that received the placebo syrup. As an added benefit, the patients in the elderberry syrup group reported taking significantly fewer over-the-counter medications in hopes of symptom relief.”
      which is cited in the following:
      Zakay-Rones Z, Thom E, Wollan T, Wadstein J. Randomized study of the efficacy and safety of oral elderberry extract in the treatment of Influenza A and B virus infections.” J Int Med Res. 2004;32(2):132-40

      These were some of the studies that I found that dealt with elderberry. There are others, but this is just a sampling.

      1. “an elderberry preparation reported significant improvement in influenza symptoms”

        Kinda like chicken soup. Still not a cure or anything meaningful. If it actually worked all the doctors would be prescribing it.

        My favorite treatment when I got sick as a child was ice cream. Probably no better than elderberry but I enjoyed it.

    3. There are three clinical double blind placebo studies that have been done on the effectiveness of elderberry to not only prevent but treat the cold/flu virus.

      It is a HUGE stretch to assume that elderberry would cause such an extreme cytokine storm in the body. In fact, if I contract this virus I would WANT the cytokine storm on day one to attack that virus. That means it is helping my body fight it even more.

      This statement ““In most moribund [dying] patients, 2019-nCoV infection is also associated with a cytokine storm…” is a no brainer to me. Of COURSE someone that is dying of anything related to a virus would have a cytokine storm at the end of life. Their body is throwing out a last ditch effort to kill that virus and it causes massive inflammation. But for whatever reason, in that patient their immune system could not fight it off..hence the cytokine storm. The storm isn’t a bad thing if it’s happening on day one to five of the virus trying to replicate.

  7. Thank you so much for posting the information on elderberry and melatonin. I skimmed the melatonin study and the effective dosage of melatonin to protect mice was a megadose, 200mg/kg bodyweight. They tested lower doses of 20mg/per kg and it was not helpful. 200 mg per kg of body weight would be enormous. A man weighing 100kg would need 20000 mg dosage. I don’t know where a person could get that dosage, I also found a mention in wikipedia that one study claims melatonin actually increased or enhanced the production of cytokines. However, it is very interesting. I also could not find a toxic level of melatonin. I would appreciate more information on this topic if anyone has more info. I take 2.5 mg melatonin every night before bed and it helps with sleep. I also take DIY elderberry tea or syrup if I feel a cold coming on.

  8. As of Feb. 13, there were 75 flu deaths in my state so far in the 2019/20 flu season — fewer than the total number of reported COVID-19 illnesses in the entire United States. Yet the latter causes far more alarm, probably because we are all used to dealing with the flu but this novel coronavirus represents the great unknown. We don’t have many facts, just rumor and speculation and data points that seem to change daily.

    We really don’t know how deadly it is because we can’t trust the data coming out of China. We don’t know how contagious it is because we don’t know have any sound data on who actually has it. We don’t know how long the incubation period is, just a range possibly as high as 23 days. We don’t know how many people get it and shake it off with little or no sign of illness. We don’t even know how accurate the diagnostic test is. We don’t know how it originated, just speculation about fish markets, bio warfare centers, bats and HIV DNA. So given the lack of data, we prepare for the worst, a deadly pandemic.

    But if we look at the Diamond Prince cruise ship docked in Japan as a microcosm, we don’t see a deadly pandemic. It appears that on the ship, COVID-19 is pretty contagious with 355 of 3700 people testing positive so far (all apparenlty caused by one individual), a number that grows daily. But at the same time, it may not be that deadly as there has only been one death in Japan, and I can’t tell if that is related to the cruise ship or not. (I’d like to see how many of the 355 are eventually released as recovered.) If this disease hits our shores, my hope is that we see something similar to the Diamond Princess where it spreads quickly but doesn’t kill very many. If that is the case, then this can be treated like the flu, not like Ebola.

    One thing that is hyping fear is the reaction of the Chinese government. Why quarantine millions of people if this is a minor, flu-like illness? What do they know that we do not? Are people really dying in the streets and are bodies being cremated in secret? Why won’t they let the CDC in? Are they over reacting or do they know something we don’t? And is their over- reaction coloring our perception of the threat?

    Again, COVID-19 is a great unknown, and that’s what makes it scary.

    Don’t get me wrong; I am prepped, and I think you should be too. I am prepared for the worst, ready to self-quarantine if necessary, but I think that day is still months away, at least here in the U.S. In the meantime, I’m staying off cruise ships and airplanes, taking other minor precautions, and hoping for the best.

  9. One video I watched about the Spanish Flu claimed that US military carried a bad strain to Europe, and then the return wave of July 1918 brought a mutant strain back to the US that was far more deadly for the 1918 summer thru 1919 mass die off.

    This is said to be a characteristic of RNA virus capabilities rather than a notable exception. Thus the ‘wave’ concerns of the CDC seem striking to me. I thought my preps were OK, but a 2 year run certainly changes perspective. (I have nowhere near a 2 year supply of bulk chocolate stacked yet.)

    1. “but a 2 year run certainly changes perspective. (I have nowhere near a 2 year supply of bulk chocolate stacked yet.)”

      Thank you, Wheatley Fisher, for such a great laugh. That was great. I’m still smiling.
      Blessings, Krissy

      1. I keep two chest freezers, one which is swathed in quilts and blankets at all times with only the motor area exposed. I open it about 6 or 8 times per year and name this one Deep Cryo. It has coffee grounds, meat, flour, and a few other types of items. Chocolate from our bulk food store is now on my shopping list for Deep Cryo. One must have one’s priorities straight, after all.

        Best wishes!

          1. Best wishes with your studies. Keep after it.

            All things in life may not make is happy, but God wants us to take our medicine….laughter . Rooted in the joy of his love.

  10. The Lancet has 3 published studies on covid’19 with the first one on the novel coronavirus from Wuhan on January 24, 2020 with 41 subjects and the third study had more than 1000 subjects.

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