Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today’s focus is on some observations by economist John Mauldin. (See the the Economy & Finance section.)
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Why the Barrick deal could mean the mega melt up is here for gold. (A hat tip to H.L. for the link.)
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Reader Tim J. suggested this headline: Exclusive: Venezuela removed 8 tons of central bank gold last week – legislator
Economy & Finance:
The folks at Wolf Street flagged a key indicator: Oops, Imports by China, Emerging Asia Plunge Most Since 2008.
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Over at Zero Hedge, take the time to read this essay by John Mauldin: Modern Monetary Madness Will Lead To Higher Taxes and Inflation. Here is a passage:
“Politicians are increasingly talking about ‘free stuff.’ Free college, guaranteed basic income, more total healthcare paid for by the public, basic housing, and more. It is almost like there will be an auction to see who can promise the most free benefits, paid for by taxes on the rich. They will cite economic advisors who say it is completely doable and even necessary for the general welfare.
“The richest country in the history of rich countries can easily afford to spend more on its citizens ensuring basic income and wealth equality.” More or less a direct quote from several interviews. Forget mere income taxes. The new political ante will be a wealth tax.
That means these ideas will be increasingly promoted in the public space. More politicians will argue for increased spending and/or at least different spending priorities. Guns and butter.
Over the next few years this will enter the national mindset. An increasingly large group of voters, especially younger voters, will feel a natural affinity with the idealism. Why shouldn’t a rich nation help those who are less advantaged?
Then somewhere, while we are having this conversation, there will be a recession. Unemployment will rise and deficits increase until we are on our way to a $30-trillion debt in just a few years. This will crowd out private investment, slowing whatever recovery there might be and making us vulnerable to a quick second recession, not unlike the recessions of 1980 and 1982.
But it will also produce the potential for a true ‘change’ election. The frustration noted among Trump voters will still be there, but it will also be shared by many on the left who will see the promises as a way to change things. It is hard to argue in the middle of financial crisis and recession that we don’t need change.”
Next, at Zero Hedge: Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil And World Peak Coal?
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And at Seeking Alpha: Oil Investing Is Dead, Long Live Oil Trading
Stocks and Stock Derivatives:
Reader G.P. spotted this: Insiders Just Sold The Most Stock In A Decade
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With the recent passage of H.R. 8 in the U.S. House, I’m hedging more heavily into stripped AR-15 and AR-10 lower receivers. Whenever I can find one available as a private party sale, I jump on it. (The last I checked, that sort of transaction is legal in 41 states.) I’ve been paying an average of $75 each, here in the Redoubt. The problem is that very few lower owners with gun show tables are offering any AR lowers for sale. I’m even buying complete ARs with funky no flash hider target uppers, and then selling off the uppers, separately.
Higher prices are inevitable, even before possible passage of S.42–the Senate’s version of H.R. 8. And if S.42 does pass, then I can predict that stripped lowers will jump to at least $300 each. And if the bill gets bundled up into an omnibus bill and signed by DJT, then the sky is the limit. There will at least a 180 day window of opportunity to continue private part sales. During that six month free-for-all, an un-papered AR-15 lower from a private party might fetch as much as $1,000, and complete ARs may be selling for $2,000 to $3,000. Panic now, and beat the rush. The days of $700 AR-15s may soon be a fond memory.
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Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often get the scoop on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!