Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on Nickels–the humble U.S. five cent pieces. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Egon von Greyerz of Zurich: A Submerging Global Economy

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Gold Slips After Negative Trump Tweet On China-U.S. Trade

 

Stocks:

The Dark Decade Ahead

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Stock overvaluation is only half of the story. The other huge hovering Sword of Damocles is the threat of normalizing interest rates. Rates have artificially been held so low for so long that when they return to historic norms, it will be devastating for all of the equities markets.  Be ready. Minimize your exposure to stocks and stock mutual funds!  I’m not the only one giving warnings about the overbought stock markets. So is veteran analyst David Tice.

 

Commodities:

The latest video from Blu Putnam: Divergent Forces Driving Agriculture Markets

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Where’s The Wheat?

 

Economy & Finance:

Next, at Wolf Street: Census Bureau Reveals Grim Facts about Real Earnings of Men

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The US economy cratered in 2008. Here’s how far it’s come (A retrospective on the 2008-2009 crisis, from the pundits at CNN.  Note the matronly tone, with when they describe how they intentionally soft-pedaled the news.)

 

Forex and Cryptos:

The peso crisis in Argentina: A risk analysis

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Lira jumps after Turkish central bank hikes rates in a bid to save tumbling currency.  JWR’s Comments: The prevailing interest rate there is now at 24%. Desperation moves like that usually signal the incipient death of a currency.

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Ethereum, Monero Lead Crypto Market Recovery with 17% Gains, Each

 

Tangibles Investing (Nickels):

For many years, I’ve recommended stockpiling nickels.  This is because they are the only currently-minted U.S. coins that have a base metal value that is close to their face value. All of the other current U.S. coins are fully debased tokens.  (Yes, you can also search for pre-1982 copper pennies, but that takes time and effort.) Nickels are still available at face value at your bank. Just ask your bank’s merchant teller to order them for you, by the box. They typically do so with no service fee charged.  Stock up now, before the composition of the humble nickel is debased!

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US nickels cost seven cents to make. Scientists may have a solution

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This article dates back five years. To the best of my knowledge, Kyle Bass is still hanging on to his nickel stockpile: The Nickel-Hoarding Billionaire

 

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often get the scoop on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!




13 Comments

  1. “Minimize your exposure to stocks and stock mutual funds!”

    been hearing that for ten years.

    seriously, I’ve heard all the arguments for stocks going down and gold going up and the world coming to an end and the zombies are coming and it all made and still makes sense to me and I’ve believed it. but dude. it’s been ten years now. at what point do you say, “guess I was wrong”?

    1. That which cannot go on forever, will not go on forever. It’s a binary choice: either you honestly believe the trillion-dollar deficits and pump & dump markets can keep doing this forever, or you don’t. Our debt is on a logarithmic curve, accelerating every day.

      Can it go on far longer than any rational estimate predicts? Of course. And frankly, I didn’t have kids, I wouldn’t really care what happens. But I’ve got people counting on me to make solid decisions that impact their survival. I will not submit to normalcy bias.

      This silliness, which has been done many times throughout human history, always ends the same way. It may not even ‘end’ in my lifetime, but it *will* end. When it does, I want my kids to know I loved them enough to defer my personal gratification for their benefit.

      “10 years” is nothing. Or it could happen next week.

      1. Challenging position to take.

        1. The market rose when people here said run. In fact, the market rose massively. If you followed the Rawles POV, you would still be sitting on $1200 gold. If you didn’t you would have seen your investment dollars rise substantially, assuming a decent investment strategy.

        2. Yes, the market will go down. Yes, it is a certainty. When will it happen? No one knows. Has it peaked? I think so, but questions remain. Would I move at least a portion of my portfolio out of stocks and MFs? Yes.

        I’ve read this blog for a number of years, and no, the predictions published here have not come true. They will at some point, but they haven’t thus far.

  2. You can keep investments in stocks and mutual funds in this economic environment but be ready to withdraw upon seeing the right signals. Of course, you can put a “stop loss” sell price on your stocks, so that they auto sell if the price drops to that point. As long as interest rates remain (artificially) low then in general the stock market will trend upwards as it has for a century, even taking into account dips in value during the Great Depression, as an example. It proved to be temporary. However, you have to have another pool of assets that will take you through a downturn. I’m not sure precious metals are it, though.

  3. PMs are more nearly insurance than investment, though they are both. Do you complain when you can’t “use” the insurance you paid for, because the calamity hasn’t happened?

  4. If you have been buying boxes of nickels as I have – you may want to check dates. New boxes of 2009-p’s are fetching 5-10 times face. Other recent dates are also bringing nice premiums.

    Nickels are not my one “ticket” to the future, just another way to diversify risks.

  5. Regarding the “submerging global economy,” has anyone stopped to wonder if Trump has been using economic policies and tweets to attack the economies of certain bad actors, specifically Iran, Turkey and Russia? After all, when the wall fell and Russia collapsed under Reagan, it was largely due to economic pressures and words, which is what Trump is wielding this time around.

    Sanctions: the new weapon of mass destruction.

    1. Reagan took down Russia over many years of over spending on the military (“star wars”), nuclear weapons, massive naval fleets and NASA projects. Their country was bankrupt and the people revolted beginning first in East Berlin.

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