Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on international countertrade.
Precious Metals:
First up, at Kitco: Don’t Throw In The Towel Just Yet Even If USD Moves Higher – Analysts
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Despite a stronger Dollar and fresh hopes for peace on the Korean Peninsula, spot silver ended the week on Friday at a respectable $16.49 USD per Troy ounce.
Stocks:
After next few rate hikes, Fed needs to be ‘very, very careful:’ Dallas Fed’s Kaplan
Countertrade:
One seldom-mentioned part of international commerce is countertrade. This modern-day barter is typically done by companies–or countries–that are resource rich but cash poor. The more that a currency unit becomes distrusted, the more important that countertrade becomes. For a country like Venezuela, with a hyperinflated currency that is considered “trash”, countertrade becomes crucial. Countertrade and offset trading can also be exempt from tariff regimes, in a few circumstances. Countertrading is “a layer deep” in most companies and hence unavailable for individual investors to directly profit by it. But I can foresee two opportunities: 1.) Investing in firms that profit from brokering countertrade and offsets, and, 2.) The advent of a new hybrid forward selling derivatives geared toward planned countertrade, primarily among precious metals mining firms. (The latter has not yet appeared, but given the labyrinthine and constantly-expanding world of derivatives, I expect to see them, within a few years.) See The Global Offset and Countertrade Association (GOCA) website, for details on how countertrade works.
Global Economy & Finance:
Reader Scott R. spotted this “reversion to bartering” news: In Venezuela a haircut costs 5 bananas and 2 eggs
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Mr. Magoo speaks: Greenspan: US Fiscal System ‘Out of Whack,’ Headed for ‘Stagflation’
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In Birthplace of Junk, Investors See Risks After Decade of Debt
Commodities:
Commodities Recap For The Week Of May 4, 2018
Forex:
FOREX-Dollar set for third week of gains as Fed-ECB yield gap widens. JWR’s Comments: Keep in mind that this is three weeks of relative Dollar strength after many months in disrepute. We are still deep in the throes of Trump’s Weak Dollar Policy. Phone me when the US Dollar Index hits 100. Until them I’ll probably still be a Swiss Franc Kinda Guy.
Tangibles Investing:
An Investopedia primer: Investing In Fine Wine. JWR’s Tip: Don’t drink up your profits! Full disclosure: I’m neither a drinker nor a wine investor. I’m merely presenting this info for those who might have an interest in diversifying their portfolio of tangibles.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. So please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often “get the scoop” on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!
Nomi Prins – In the Coming Crash We’ll be Falling from Higher Height
(YouTube Video)
Greg Hunter
Published on May 5, 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZvCZQtFLlU
Duration 28:49
How does the common man protect himself? Prins says, “They have to own things, and by that I mean real assets, hard assets like silver and gold. That’s not as liquid, so taking cash out of banks and sort of keeping it in real things and keeping it on site . . . keeping cash physically. You need to extract it from the system because the reality is when a financial crisis happens, banks close their doors to depositors. . . . Also, basically try to decrease your debt.”
I have no idea why anyone would buy silver. If you bought it 7 years ago you would have suffered a loss of 2/3 of your money. It’s the same price it was 37 years ago.
Well, in all fairness, I did buy several hundred ounces at $32 per ounce, and then bought some more at $17 per ounce lowering my average cost per ounce, but I haven’t “lost” anything until I sell it. I didn’t really buy it to make money on it because I will probably never sell it. It’s my SHTF plan for some wealth retention.
And if you bought it 9 years ago (or more) you’re still ‘up’ by quite a bit!
Patience is indeed, a virtue.
Sometime around 2006, a coworker, who invested heavily in metals, crowed that his gold stocks had doubled in value in the previous year. I pointed out that my stocks in lead had risen 400% in the same year. When the company I worked for, E-Systems, was bought out by Raytheon, I was handed a lump sum of cash for my ESOP. I invested in 12,000 rounds of 7.62 NATO, at $150/thousand. The rest I wasted in two IRAs. The brokers managing the IRAs ran off with millions in investor’s money, and I lost it all. But the 7.62 is now selling for what….$700 per thousand? I got a check, eventually, for sixty four cents out of the monies recovered by the government.
Of course, my friend is doing quite well with his metals, too.
I am now more interested in a return OF my money, not ON my money.
Paul
Invested in some wine(cases of recognized label bottles at steep discount),plan to use for barter. Have several gallon jugs of cooking wine and as it is used I plan to use the jugs to learn to brew beer,cider and vinegar. Don’t forget vinegar it has so many uses(cooking,preserving,cleaning etc) and top quality vinegar can rival good wine in price($30-$50 gal or more) and is time intensive (months to years to make good product) but can be made from marginal stock(failed wine experiments)