Letter Re: Bad News on Peak Oil: Five Year Slide to a 50% Production Crash
Dear Jim and Family, I have bad news on the Peak Oil front. We’re about five years from losing 50% of our current production, in real world terms. The producing countries are failing in their big fields, many from 8-15% decline a year (Cantarell in Mexico is down 25% from last year, Ghawar is down 10.5%, Burgan in Kuwait down 12%, Iran down something like 16%, Russia down 12%, UK/North Sea no longer exporting). Even if there are no wars and no embargos, we only have about 5 years before we only have around half as much oil (gasoline, diesel …