The Real Estate Bubble Bust — Where and When is the Bottom?

Here is your daily dose of Doom und Gloom (DUG)TM: I was recently asked by a consulting client where and when the U.S. real estate market will likely bottom. Clearly, the market has until recently been frothy, with all the signs of a speculative bubble. Lots of people that had no business doing so bought “spec” houses. Many of these buyers were under-qualified, often stretching the truth on their mortgage applications when they described their assets and incomes. Many houses were bought with interest only loans. They purchased second, third, or even fourth homes with the goal of flipping them …




Survival Retreats, by Michael Z. Williamson

The subject of retreats is a recurring one. I thought I’d mention a friend’s that I have access to. It is within six hours of my location by both freeways and major secondary highways under normal conditions. I keep sufficient fuel on hand to reach it if need be. Our evac plan calls for taking both our vehicles (car and a large van) plus trailer, with any guests also convoying. This gives plenty of protection, and the ability to transfer vehicles if necessary due to road conditions or deadlined [non-running] vehicles. The location is off a well-maintained major road between …




Retreat Potential Analysis: Bonner and Boundary Counties in North Idaho

Here is my analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of Bonner and Boundary counties in north Idaho: Advantages: 1. Very large tracts of undeveloped land under the stewardship of the Idaho Department of Lands and the US Forest Circus with considerable amounts of game and fish. 2. A variety of microclimates can be found here. Parts of Bonners Ferry can get half the snowfall of the Sandpoint area. Normally, the weather is more moderate proximate to Lake Pend Oreille but heavier snowfall occurs next to Lake Cocolalla and Priest Lake. 3. Our growing season is approximately 110 days. 4. Mountainous …




Letter Re: Retreat Locale Recommendations in Texas

James A couple of comments about K.A.D.’s Retreat Locales in Texas. (posted August 17th.) I largely concur with his well thought-out findings, though the recommended counties in the Hill Country such as Gillespie and Kerr have seen a huge increase in population in recent years, along with corresponding increases in land prices. A much better area, in my view, is further north and west, with far lower populations. But water is key in any part of the state west of I-35; with it, the area approaches ideal; without it, you’ll find yourself living in a desert. There are springs, but …




Letter Re: Retreat Locale Recommendations in Texas

Dear Mr. Rawles, In answer to your query, let me share a few observations: 1. Gillespie and Kerr Counties are a paradise. The Guadalupe is a good river, and there is a lot of fertile and secluded canyon-bottom where folk can live their lives in peace. Those secluded canyons are frequently bordered by godless rocky outcrops. The other good thing about that part of the world is that the Germans that populate the area don’t tolerate lawlessness. Period. Fredericksburg in Gillespie is so German that municipal politics is still Protestant-Catholic. Kerville is little different. New Braunfels is similar, but is …




More Poll Responses Re: Best Places for Retreats in the Eastern U.S. and Overseas?

Dear Jim: Glad you are open to suggestions from those of us East of the Mississippi. For those who are unfamiliar, a great starting point of identifying the places to be and not to be in your state is the work of Bruce Beach and, as recently noted of SurvivalBlog, be sure to see some more recent maps by the folks at SurvivalRing and then consider wind patterns in your area, and the jet stream. Just remember to consider: major military targets, state or federal government centers, nuclear power plants, large power plants and electric generating dams, or any key …




Poll Responses Re: Best Places for Retreats in the Eastern U.S. and Overseas?

Jim, For those of us stuck in the Northeast due to family and or business reasons, I suggest the the area in New Hampshire north of the White Mountains and east of the Connecticut river. Generally from Woodsville, NH to Lancaster, NH. Including the area around Lisbon, Littleton and Whitefield in the Ammonoosuc River valley. Distance to Boston is approximately 150 miles, and Montreal 170 miles. – Art   Dear Jim, For retreat sites east of the Mississippi, one of the most uninhabited areas is in West Virginia south of the WV Turnpike down through the eastern corner of Kentucky …




Polling the Blog Readership: Best Places for Retreats in the Eastern U.S. and Overseas?

I’m in the final stages of writing my upcoming nonfiction book, “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation”. In it, I give my recommendations on retreat locales in 19 western states. As you know, I am not a proponent of retreats east of the Mississippi River, due to the higher population density of the eastern states and their downwind location. That would make them vulnerable to a full scale nuclear attack. And I’m the first to admit that I’m biased toward the Western U.S., since I like my “elbow room.” But for those of you that do choose to stay in the …




Letter Re: Real Estate Crash Followed by a Hyperinflationary Recession?

Mr. Rawles, Again, for your very useful posts, thank you. I have a question if you have the time. It was in regards to your real estate post: “My advice to home owners is pay it off and my advice to prospective home buyers is wait for the crash and pay for it with cash.” This is my current plan: I’ve sold my home and am renting now. But do you believe (in the hyper-inflation scenario) that there will be a lull to allow for your statement above? Will there be a time in between when recession/depression and when hyper-inflation …




A Survival Retreat for Under $1,000, By Wolverine

Call it a survival retreat, hunting cabin, or summer cottage, a place away from the crowds and turmoil of the cities is a dream most of us share. Some folks plan out a survival retreat in such detail that long-term storage, over lapping fields of fire, and fuel supplies are worked out. Others, like myself, approach it as a vacation spot that can be readily converted if need be to an alternate living location. Back in the late 1960s my family had a small two-room cottage on a lake in northern Michigan. The cottage had no electricity, no running water, …




Letter Re: Indian Reservation Boundaries a Determining Factor for Retreat Locales?

Hi Jim, Excellent web site! Regarding the recent discussion on living near or in a reservation, I have a couple of informed comments. I have been living near the Navajo Nation, and working in the Navajo Nation for about one year. I am of Caucasian descent. Here’s a couple of observations: 1. Native Americans seem to have a subtle racism/dislike for whites … when TSHTF, I am sure that they will draw together, and whites will find themselves an “outgroup.” 2. Most reservations and reservation residents, even though proclaiming sovereign status, are actually very dependent on the US government for …




Letter Re: Why Christianity? and Recommendations on the Great Lakes

Mr. Rawles, I just finished your novel (“Patriots”), after a marathon reading session that consumed my entire weekend. It was marvelous. I loved every aspect of the book except all of the religious references aimed towards Christians. Can a man of your obvious intelligence really believe that “being a good Christian” elevates someone morally to a higher level than perhaps a Muslim, Jew (yes you showed respect in the book for [a Jewish character’s] beliefs, but…), or myself a fence riding atheist? I want so much to believe in god, but it appears that god has abandoned this world. Secondly, …




Letter Re: Indian Reservation Boundaries a Determining Factor for Retreat Locales?

James, In your posted list of ‘Recommended Retreat Areas‘ you address Indian tribal government as a ‘minus’ because of an extra layer of bureaucracy only for Oklahoma. Doesn’t this apply to each and every state which contains reservations? Your top 12 recommended states all have reservations on them. Might not that Indian Nation independence be a benefit? Or, since my knowledge on Indian Tribal Lands and their political position being quite slim, might I just be missing some very basic information which would lend one to see the true position? I have been doing some research but haven’t uncovered anything …




Letter Re: Asian Avian Flu and Waterfowl Migratory Flyways

1) I don’t know if you’ve seen it yet, but there is a map of “Waterfowl Flyways of North America” (put mouse cursor on icon in lower right corner and click to enlarge). This shows the routes that migratory ducks and geese follow when they return to the southern USA in the fall after mingling with Eurasian migratory birds in the subarctic over the summer. 2) That is, the map shows the primary routes along which Avian flu would be transmitted into the USA: a) Coastal bays like the Chesapeake and Delaware on the East Coast and San Francisco on …




Letter Re: The “Sell Your House and Rent it Back” Option in a Falling House Market

James: In a recent e-mail, you suggested considering selling my house and renting for a period of time, or at least until the real estate bubble stabilized. [JWR’s replies are in-line, in bold text.] 1.) Do you still recommend doing this? Yes, if you are living in a bubble region that is likely to see steep house price declines. The big question now is: can you find someone willing to do this? A year ago or even just six months ago, it would have been fairly easy, since the market was still rising. Now, with prices falling, it might be …