Category: Emerging Threats

Letter Re: Kanban: America’s Ubiquitous “Just in Time” Inventory System–A Fragile House of Cards

James: This “just in time” thinking has transformed the medical industry, especially hospitals. The “Central Supply” or stockpile in hospitals has disappeared and in its place are vendors with same day and next day shipping. This includes band-aids, medications, ventilators, equipment etc. In the business setting it makes sense, but in the medical setting it often falters on a day to day basis. In a crisis medical event, surge capacity is limited to how fast the vendors can respond. In a contained disaster, vendors can shift needed supplies to a hospital in as little as several hours. But, in a …


Active Preparedness Planning: Identifying and Mitigating Threats, by Paul C.

Here is my approach to actively preparing for disasters: 1. Identify potential threats. 2. Gather quantitative and qualitative information on impact. 3. Identify which threats are the most likely. 4. Identify critical needs for survival. 5. Estimate outage time that can be tolerated. 6. Compile resource requirements. 7. Identify alternatives. 1. Identify potential threats. Threats will come from two main areas: man-made or natural. Man-made threats include labor strikes, riots, fires, chemical spills, terrorism, and vandals. A labor strike might mean that garbage collection or that public transportation stops. Urban riots have hit cities like Los Angeles, Seattle, Miami, and …


Kanban: America’s Ubiquitous “Just in Time” Inventory System–A Fragile House of Cards

When I give lectures or do radio interviews, I’m often asked for proof when I mention that we live in a “fragile society.” Here is one prime example: kanban. The kanban or “just in time” inventory system was developed in Japan, and became popular in America starting in the 1970s. It is now ubiquitous in nearly every industry. The concept is simple: Through close coordination with subcontractors and piece part suppliers, a manufacturer can keep its parts inventory small. (Kanban is a key element of “lean manufacturing.”) They only order batches of parts as needed (“just in time”), sometimes ordering …


Letter Re: Planned NAFTA Superhighway Corridors

James, Your readers who are looking to evade “progress and mass population” need to pay particular attention to the proposed NAFTA [High Priority Corridor] super-highways. These linked pages will cover all projected builds in all 50 states [see details on the High Priority Corridor routes], many of which are planned for “remote” areas favored by survival-minded folks. This is seriously bad news. – Jay in Florida


The CDC’s New “Five Categories” for Pandemic Severity

Several SurvivalBlog readers mentioned an article that ran recently in the New York Times: U.S. Issues Guidelines in Case of Flu Pandemic. The article begins: “Cities should close schools for up to three months in the event of a severe flu outbreak, ball games and movies should be canceled and working hours staggered so subways and buses are less crowded, the federal government advised today in issuing new pandemic flu guidelines to states and cities. Health officials acknowledged that such measures would hugely disrupt public life, but they argued that these measure would buy the time needed to produce vaccines …


Three Letters Re: Pondering Some Personal Consequences of Global Climate Change

Dear Jim, In response to this: “(See the movie The Day After Tomorrow regarding tipping points). Discoveries of animals flash frozen solid with fresh grass their stomachs points to the possibility of a very fast onset to global climate change.” The Day After Tomorrow was roundly slammed by scientists and went beyond ludicrous, and the “flash frozen” animals are a myth that has never been documented. The recovered frozen mammoths have all been highly putrefied. At present, the evidence of warming is mixed, with glaciers in Europe, South America and Antarctica all increasing [in size]. Even with the current Northern …


Letter Re: Pondering Some Personal Consequences of Global Climate Change

James: While the pundits assure us that global warming, if real at all, won’t affect us in our lifetime, other scientific models suggest explosive climate shifts as ‘tipping points’ are reached. (See the movie The Day after Tomorrow regarding tipping points). Discoveries of animals flash frozen solid with fresh grass their stomachs points to the possibility of a very fast onset to global climate change. While suddenly finding yourself in an Arctic climate is likely not survivable, we must consider if we have the flexibility to survive in a radically different or highly volatile climate. Global warming can make warm …


Letter Re: More Evidence of Peak Oil Decline–Preparing for Much Higher Gasoline Prices

Dear Jim and Family, Bad news from the largest oil field in Mexico. The Canterell field, formerly reported to decline at 2% last August, 6% in October, and 11% in December has been rated at 25% today. Oil production has dropped from 1.99 million barrels per day to 1.5 million barrels per day. This is a very bad thing. Most of that oil goes to the USA via NAFTA treaties. There are no fields to replace it, and since Mexico has 51% leftist leanings, no oil company will risk investing there (Pemex was formed from seized foreign oil investments, most …


Two Letters Re: How to Reply to “When the SHTF, I’m Going Over to Your House”, by Rolf in the Northwest

Jim: [In reply to Matt’s comments on Rolf’s original letter:] There are a lot of examples to illustrate why each person needs their own disaster preps, and the “insurance” example (“why should your fire insurance pay for my house burning down, or vice-versa?”) is a good one. Another is the “personalization” aspect: “Sorry, I’m a single guy; I doubt I’d stock your wife’s brand of feminine protection.” But people tend to think of “disaster preparations” as special or different in some way, because they are not “normal accidents,” and most people have a very hard time thinking outside a fairly …


Letter Re: The Derivatives Bubble

I wanted to say thanks so much for the excellent derivatives article. [“Derivatives–The Mystery Man Who’ll Break the Global Bank at Monte Carlo.”] I speculate in this market and wholly share your opinion about what exists, the ignorance of the implications, and the clear and present danger to the lifestyle of everyone on the planet. Keep up the good work with the blog and with excellent articles such as this. Respectfully, – CMC


The Next Pandemic: Starvation in a Land of Plenty

At the dawn of the 21st century, we are living in an amazing time of prosperity. Our health care is excellent, our grocery store shelves burgeon with a huge assortment of fresh foods, and our telecommunications systems are lightning fast. We have relatively cheap transportation, and our cities are linked by an elaborate and fairly well-maintained system of roads, rails, canals, seaports, and airports. For the first time in human history, the majority of the world’s population will soon live in cities rather than in the countryside. But the downside to all this abundance is over-complexity, over-specialization, and lengthy supply …


Letter Re: An Interesting Television Show on the Pandemic Threat

Most everyone loves a good medical mystery. You know, we watch these shows like “House” and “ER” to see what the medical emergency is and to watch the drama unfold as they solve the crisis of the moment. Shows like “CSI” teach us a lot about the medical community and police work together to solve crimes. You’re going to probably see in the television season to come that the subject in this link is going to be played out in various popular drama shows. Understanding the reality behind it to me is as interesting as the drama plays and I …


Two Letters Re: Israeli Nuclear Saber Rattling

James The Olmert government would not do a nuclear strike of any kind even if we were at risk of being completely overrun. The weakness in response can be seen in the war in Lebanon where only minimal measures were used and only against safe targets after about 8 hours of leaflet warnings. Olmert simply will not upset his liberal European friends even when Washington orders him to act strongly. This is likely part of a wind up similar to what we saw before the Iraq invasion although I am doubtful that there will be an American ground occupation of …


Ten Things That Will Get You Killed While Bugging In, by Paul C.

“Bugging in” is the term used for staying at home while waiting for an event to pass you by. [As opposed to “bugging out”–fleeing to a lightly populated region.] Even the largest civil events of the last one hundred years haven’t set society off here in the United States of its normal course for more than two weeks. Double that for a month and you’ll survive, or out survive, any event likely to hit. After whatever event that has set society on its end has struck the 99 out of one hundred people that haven’t prepared for survival are going …


Letter Re: Is the Threat of a Yellowstone Supervolcano Significant?

Hello, Jim! I have been following your blog and every time the subject comes up on retreats in the [U.S.] Northwest, I have the same question. What about the volcano threat from Yellowstone National Park? Would you please comment on this. Thanks, – GCP JWR Replies: Part of what you are reading in the mainstream media may be sensationalist hype, but there is definitely a long term risk. (An eruption sometime in the next 10,000 years.) The imponderable question is: Is there as significant risk in the short term? Clearly, none of the “experts” really know for certain. Yes, there …