Category: Economics & Investing

The Ides of March–The Dreaded Margin Calls Have Begun at Banks and Hedge Funds

This week the news wires were abuzz about the Bear Stearns bailout. It all started with a margin call. An investment banking insider tipped me that there will be perhaps as many as five more “margin calls that can’t be answered” next week. Three names mentioned as possibly getting the dreaded call are Goldman Sachs on Tuesday and both Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers on Wednesday–on the same day that each reports their first quarter earnings. The word on the street is that all three may need to be bailed out, to varying degrees. Who is standing in the wings …


Letter Re: Wait and Buy Farm Ground Near the Bottom of the Market

James, I wanted to address some of the discussion about buying [farm] ground. I know the situation may be different in the West since the flood of Californians may never result in lower prices than are currently available. But the following is my view of the current situation in the Midwest . Keep in mind that farmland has rarely acted in the same way as housing prices have. For one there is not the mass subsidization of farm land purchasing like housing. (think GI loans, first time buyers loans, Freddie Mac and Sallie Mae, etc) The perils and pitfalls of …


Credit Collapse: The Depression Countdown Begins

SurvivalBlog includes plenty of gloom and doom, but I do my best to not be a ranting and raving alarmist. The recent torrential flood of bad economic news, however, has led me to now urge greater preparedness. Don’t quit your job and head for the hills yet, but by all means redouble your efforts to get ready. In my estimation, we are now on a short countdown to economic depression. Back in early 2006, I first warned about derivatives trading. Since June of 2007, I have been warning about the larger implications of CDOs. In January of 2008, I pointed …


“Official” Statistics on Population, Employment, Income Levels, Money Supply, and Inflation?

James: In a recent Odds ‘n Sods item, you cited a article published by The New York Times: You stated: “A key data point mentioned in the article: ‘The median household [in the US] earned $48,201 in 2006, down from $49,244 in 1999, according to the Census Bureau.’ “ That’s from changing population dynamics and more careful surveys of low-income families. For comparable populations, income has risen as you ought to expect. Consider the results for “Worked Full Time, Year Round, Both Sexes, White”… For 1999 income: Persons in this group: 81.7 million Mean income of all persons in this …


The Four Gs Update: Have You Got God?, Groceries?, Guns?, Gold?

In the next few paragraphs I’ll be tackling four issues that for many years, I’ve labelled “The Four Gs.” One of my contemporaries, Richard “Doc” Sweeny, even made the concept into and acronym: GGGG, for “God, Gold, Guns, and Groceries.” God. I consider faith in God the cornerstone of my family’s preparedness. Faith in God’s sovereign control of the future gives my family hope and peace in these troubled times. If there is no hope, then why prepare? Our hope is in Christ Jesus. Groceries. There are continuing reports of shortages around the country of wheat flour, corn meal, rice, …


Letter Re: Some First Hand Experience with Mass Inflation

Dear Mr. Rawles, I lived in Romania in 1993 and 1994 at the height of runaway inflation. It was not a pretty time to see the land of Count Dracula! A meal that cost 5 Lei in 1990, was 2500 Lei in 1993. My rent was paid in Deutsche Marks, as the landlord would not take Romanian currency. However, I had to stay three days in Bucharest prior to my departure for home. I paid nearly 4 Million Romanian Lei for the room, and it was crummy and shabby to boot! By that time, I think the Lei to Dollar …


Letter Re: Comments on Farm Land Versus Coastal Land

Regarding the recent comments in SurvivalBlog, I have no experience with coastal land. I do have experience with farm / rural land. In my part of the Midwest, "junk" land (rough land not really fit for farming or pasture…and not holding valuable timber) could be purchased all day long 10-12 years ago for $500-$750 per acre. I recently attended a sale of several parcels good only for hunting and the price was $3,000+ per acre. Top quality tillable land—great for corn, soybeans, wheat? Within the last 90 days a 1,500 acre parcel sold for $6,500 per acre. 10-12 years ago, …


Letter Re: Inflation in Zimbabwe Approaches the Wheelbarrow Stage

Greetings! It’s not quite a wheelbarrow full of money yet, but check out accompanying the photo in this news story. I guess that I should invest in a separate ALICE pack, for when ‘Helicopter Ben’ starts dropping off my paycheck – that way I can at least schlep it all to the grocery store, and keep my hands free to operate small arms. Check out the slide show imbedded in the article as well – shows just how far Rhodesia/Zimbabwe has fallen. – Bob in Pittsburgh


Two Letters Re: 21st Century Property Squatters

Dear Jim: < Sarcasm On > Your disappearing home equity got you down? Behind on your mortgage? What if you could live payment free for up to 8 months or more and walk away without owing a penny? See: You Walk Away < Sarcasm Off > The foregoing is a real solicitation to delay the foreclosure process. When real estate parasites like this have a business helping deadbeats game the foreclosure process, you know the Schumer is starting to really hit. Not that I have much sympathy for the crooked bankers and lenders being taken advantage of here (just wait …


Letter Re: Credit Unions Versus Banks for Safety?

Good Morning Jim, As I read today’s blog, I thought again about the safety of credit unions. As far as I have been able to discover, they have not jumped in to the derivatives like banks and mortgage companies did, and seem much safer than banks. Credit unions are mostly local and (though the requirements are often much less restrictive than they used to be) usually only have local residents as customers. Does anyone know any more on credit unions? I’ve long recommended credit unions to my friends and family in place of banks, since they usually offer lower loan, …


Letter Re: Will US Banking Turmoil Depress the Price of Gold?

Good Morning, I am a fairly new SurvivalBlog reader but like your range and depth of coverage in all things “survival”. I Hope you can help me with a metal question… I have collected gold and silver coins for over 10 years now and have always assumed I could sell them when the time was right, but I recently had a conversation with a local coin dealer who indicated they were cutting back their hours and that there were several other shops that were closing down their retail operations because a lot of people were only wanting to sell precious …


Letter Re: With Bank Runs Looming, Check Your Bank’s Safety Rating!

Jim, Here is a link to “The Street”–a web site that offers ratings of banks throughout the USA. I checked out the banks in my state (California) and found that I currently bank with a “B” rated bank. However, there are a number of A rated banks that are in my town. It might make sense for each of us to know and check up on our financial institutions on a regular basis. This along with choosing the highest rated bank in your area could provide additional layers of insulation from the bank runs that I believe with be inevitable. …


The Fleecing of the Sheeple–America Discovers “What That Thing Will Bring”

There is a very old legal maxim: “The value of a thing, is what that thing will bring.” It was developed by the courts to establish the value of a loss, in civil claims. The maxim has been perhaps over-used in central Europe, where if you recklessly drive your car and run down a farmer’s laying hen, you can be held liable for for not only the replacement cost of the chicken, but also the value of its future offspring for the next year–or perhaps even two years if the judge is in a bad mood. That ancient maxim is …


Letter Re: Calculating The Bullion Value of US Silver Coins

Mr. Rawles: My parents and grandparents gave about $60 face value in junk silver coins, including a few Morgan and “Peace:” dollars. The quarters and dimes are all 1964 and earlier, but some are the 50 cent pieces were made in the late 1960s. (Those are 40% [silver content], right?) With silver now rocketing up past $20 an ounce, how do I determine the current market value of these coins? Thanks, – G.E.T. JWR Replies: To calculate the silver metal value of 90% silver pre-1965 mint date US dimes, quarters, and half dollars: A $1,000 face value bag contains approximately …


Arm Thyself, by William Buppert

President Bush has embarked on the final phase of Pax Americana and is ushering in an advanced imperial stage that will endanger every living American. The coming election will assure us that every American will have his Second Amendment rights infringed or predated upon in some fashion no matter which party succeeds (is there a difference except the spelling?). Perennial readers of this site are better versed than most in the predatory nature of the state and its ability to target and vilify those it wishes to eliminate eventually whether through political neutralization such as Trent Lott or lethal means …