The Mathematics of Countering Tyranny

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Introductory Proviso: The following essay on possible gun confiscation is a purely conjectural gedankenexperiment about the future that extrapolates from recent history and current trends. Nothing herein is seditious (per 18 U.S. Code § 2384), nor a call to arms, nor a threat to our government or to any individual, agency, or group.

The Collectivist Dream

The current mass media-driven “debate” on firearms (actually more like paternalistic lecturing or chiding) seems to be leading toward greater restrictions by Congress. The collectivist gun grabbers have the dream of ignoring the Second Amendment and somehow magically removing all detachable magazine semi-auto rifles from civilian hands. But it is just that: a dream. If they think that they can disarm us, then they are thoroughly deluded.  I’ll explain why, with some simple mathematics.

The United States has the world’s first or second most heavily-armed populace, per capita. (It’s possibly second only to Yemen.) The number of FBI firearms background checks for transfers by Federally-licensed dealers from November 1998 to April 30, 2018 totaled 287,807,015. That isn’t all new guns. It of course includes many second-hand sales that cycled back through FFL holders. But it is still a staggering number. And it does not include any private party (“not through a dealer”) sales of used guns. That is thankfully legal in most states. Nor does it include guns that are legally made at home. (Typically made with 80% complete receivers.) Those home “builds” are becoming quite popular. Their ownership is mostly opaque to any would-be tyrants who might covet seizing them.

There are somewhere between 370 million and 420 million privately-owned firearms in the United States. Let’s just call it 400 million for a nice round figure. Most of those guns are not registered to particular owners. That is why there are only rough estimates. It makes me feel good to know that Big Brother has no idea where those guns are, and who owns them. When I last checked, the total U.S. population is 327,708,500.  So that is about 1.2 guns per person. The adult population is around 249,500,000. And according to Wikipedia, the “Fit for service” Military Age Male population (men, ages 16-49) of the U.S. is just 59,764,677. That equates to 6.6 guns per Military Age Male in the United States.

Of the 400 million American guns, roughly 20% are single-shot or double-barreled, 60% are manually-operated repeaters (e.g., bolt action, lever action, pump action, or revolvers), and 20% are semi-automatic. There are only about 175,000 transferable Federally-registered full autos. That number would have been much larger by now but production was sharply curtailed by a hefty $200 tax (starting in 1934) and then there numbers were effectively frozen in 1986. It is noteworthy that if it were not for the National Firearms Act of 1934, selective fire guns would by now be in what the Heller decision calls “common use“. After all, it costs only a few dollars more to manufacture a selective-fire M16 than a semiautomatic-only AR-15.

With every passing year, the predominance of semi-autos is gaining for both rifles and handguns. (In sheer numbers produced, revolvers are becoming almost passé.) The biggest-selling handgun in the country is the Smith & Wesson M&P 9mm, followed closely by the Glock Model 19 9mm. Gaining rapidly is the highly modular SIG P320, which was recently adopted by the U.S. Army. All three of these are semi-automatic. Standard magazine sizes for autopistols range from 13 to 20 rounds. And the most popular rifles of the decade are AR-15s and their clones. Their standard capacity magazines hold 30 cartridges. (That isn’t “high capacity”.)

The Math On AR Clones

AR-15 and AR-10 variants are truly generic and have been sold under more than 120 brand names. The number of ARs (AR-15s, M4s, AR-10s, and variants) sold from 2000 to 2014 was approximately 5,672,900. Since then, AR-15 clones have become even more popular and ubiquitous with approximately 1.2 million more produced in 2015, 1.6 million in 2016, and 1.5 million in 2017. At least 1.2 million will be produced in 2018. It can be assumed that 99% of the ARs produced since the year 2000 are still functional. There were more than 2.3 million other ARs produced for the civilian market between 1962 and 1999. It is safe to assume that at least 95% of those of that vintage are still functional. So the total number of functional ARs in private hands in the U.S. is somewhere around 11 to 12 million. (As of May, 2018.)

Some Math on Other Semi-Autos

Next we come to the more fuzzy math on the wide variety of other models of semi-auto centerfire rifles in private hands. They include detachable magazine, en bloc clip, and stripper clip-fed designs. Here are some rough estimates. (Some of these estimates are based on my own observations of the ratios of different models I’ve seen offered for sale):

  • Various semi-auto hunting rifles (Remington 740/7400 series, AK Hunter, Browning BAR, Winchester 100, Valmet Hunter, Saiga Hunter, HK SL7/SL8, HK 630/770, et cetera): 2 million+
  • Ruger Mini-14 and Mini-30: 1.2 million
  • M1 Garand: 800,000+ (With many more being imported, soon.)
  • AK Variants (imported and domestically made, from all makers including Valmet and Galil): 2 to 3 million
  • M1 Carbine: 1.5 to 2 million
  • AR-180 and AR-180B: 35,000
  • M1A and other semi-auto M14 variants: 360,000
  • SIG 550 series: 80,000+
  • Thompson Semi-Autos (West Hurley and Kahr Arms): 75,000
  • HK variants: CETME, HK91/93/94 series, PTR91, etc.: 600,000 to 700,000
  • FAL variants: FN-FAL, FNC, and L1A1:  425,000
  • SKS variants: 1 million
  • Steyr AUG: 110,000
  • IWI Tavor & X95: 70,000
  • Various semi-autos assembled from military surplus full auto parts sets (M1919, BAR, Sten, M2 Browning, M3, Etc.): 75,000+
  • Assorted Other Models (These include: Kel-Tec, Barrett, Leader, FAMAS, Uzi carbines, Wilkinson, Feather, Calico, Hi-Point, SIG AMT, SIG PE57, SIG MCX, SIG MPX, Johnson, BM59, HK USC, TNW, Demro Tac-1, Calico Carbine, ACR, SCAR, Chiappa Carbine, SWD (MAC), Robinson, Hakim, Ljungman, Beretta AR-70, Beretta CX4, CZ Scorpion, Kriss Carbine, FN-49, SVT-40, SVD, PSL, Gewehr 41 & 43, Daewoo, FS 2000, Ruger PCR, Marlin Camp Carbine, et cetera): 2+ million.
The Aggregate GUN Math
Totaling the list above and adding it to the preceding estimate on ARs, there are 20 million semi-auto centerfire rifles that are in civilian hands here in the States. And that number is increasing by nearly 2 million per year. (More than half of which are AR-15 or AR-10 clones.) Again looking at the Military Age Male  population (men, ages 16-49) of 59,764,677, that equates to roughly one semi-auto rifle for every three Military Age Males.

 

If a production and importation ban requiring registration were enacted, there would surely be massive noncompliance. For example, the registration schemes enacted in the past two decades in Australia, Canada, The Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, and the States of California and New York have been well-documented failures. They have been met with noncompliance rates ranging from 50% to 90%.

Even with an optimistic 50% registration compliance rate, that would mean only 10 million of the nation’s 20 million semi-auto rifles would have a current name and address attached, to allow eventual gun confiscation.

 

Let us surmise that following several years of a registration scheme there were an outright “turn them all in, Mr. and Mrs. America” ban. I predict that even if $1,000 per gun were offered, no more than 11 million would be turned in, by compliant and history-ignorant Sheeple. (An aside: They’ll probably call this a “Buy Back”, but that will be a lie. They can’t “buy back” something that they’ve never owned.)

But that would still leave at least 9 million in circulation, as contraband.
The SWAT and ATF Manpower Math

So let’s suppose that a full Federal semi-auto rifle ban were enacted with a gun confiscation order issued.

This is where the math gets very interesting: There are only 902,000 sworn police officers in the United States. At most, about 80,000 of them have had SWAT training. There are only 5,113 BATFE employees–and many of those are mere paper shufflers. As of 2017, there were just 2,623 ATF Special Agents. The FBI’s notorious Hostage Rescue Team (HRT or “Hurt Team”) has a cadre strength that is classified but presumably less than 200 agents. Together, they comprise the pool of “Door Kickers” that might be available to execute unconstitutional search warrants.

If they were to start going door-to-door executing warrants for unconstitutional gun confiscation, what would the casualty rates be for the ATF, HRT, and the assorted local SWAT teams?  It bears mention that the military would be mostly out of the picture, since they are banned from domestic law enforcement roles, under the Posse Comitatus Act.

The Division Equations

Next, let’s do some addition and then divide:

80,000    SWAT-trained police
+ 2,623     ATF Special Agents
+    200     FBI HRT Members
=  82,863    Potentially Available Door Kickers

… presumably working in teams of 8, attempting to seize 9,000,000 newly-contraband semi-auto rifles.

Before we finish the math, I’ll state some “for the sake of argument” assumptions:

  1. That every SWAT-trained officer in the country is pressed into service.
  2. That there would be no “false positives”–meaning that 100% of the tips leading to raids were accurate. (Unlikely)
  3. That no local police departments would opt out of serving unconstitutional Federal gun warrants. (Unlikely)
  4. That all raids would be successful. (Unlikely)
  5. That each successful raid would net an average of three contraband semi-auto rifles. (Possible)
  6. That every Door Kicker would get an equal share in the work. (Very unlikely)
  7. That every Door Kicker would be alive and well through the entire campaign of terror–with no incapacitating injuries or deaths of SWAT officers, no refusals, no resignations, and no early retirements. (Very unlikely)

A lot of those are not safe assumptions. But for the sake of completing a gedankenexperiment, let’s pen this out on the back of a napkin, as a “best case” for an unconstitutional gun confiscation campaign. Here are the division equations:

9,000,000 ÷ 82,863 = 108 (x 8 officers per team) =  864 raids, per officer 

Let that sink in: Every officer would have to survive 864 gun-grabbing raids.

Those of course are fanciful numbers. There will be a lot of false tips, and there will be many owners who keep their guns very well-hidden. Each of those raids would have nearly the same high level of risk but yet many of them would net zero guns. And it is likely that many police departments will wisely decline involvement. Therefore the “best case” figure of 864 raids per officer is quite low. The real number would be much higher.

How long would it be until mounting law enforcement casualties triggered a revolt or “sick-out” among the rank and file Door Kickers?  For some historical context: Just four ATF agents were killed and 16 wounded in the Waco raid, and that was considered quite “devastating” and “traumatizing” to the 5,000-member agency.

 

Here is some sobering ground truth: America’s gun owners are just as well trained–and often better trained–than the police. There are 20.4 million American military veterans, and the majority of veterans own guns.

Resistance Strategy and Tactics
Rather than meeting the police one-at-a-time on their doorsteps, I predict that resisting gun owners will employ guerilla warfare strategy and tactics to foil the plans of the gun grabbers:
1.) They will successfully hide the majority of their banned guns. This is just what many Europeans did, following World War II. There are perhaps a million guns in Europe that were never registered or turned in, after the war. Particularly in Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Spain, and Greece, there is still massive noncompliance. It has now been 73 years since the end of WWII. So the gun registration noncompliance in Europe is now multi-generational.
2.) They will form small, fully independent “phantom” resistance cells. This is commonly called leaderless resistance. Such cells are very difficult to detect or penetrate. These resistance cells will carefully choose the time and location of their attacks, to their advantage.
3.) They will individually target the legislators who voted for unconstitutional gun ban legislation. This will make it  almost suicidal for these legislators to return to their home districts.
4.) They will individually target any outspokenly anti-gun police chiefs.
5.) They will target all BATF agents and FBI HRT agents–first with intimidation, and then with targeted killings.
6.) They will pillage or burn down the facilities where confiscated guns are being stored and destroyed.
7.) They will anonymously phone in false police reports about gun control advocates. (This is commonly called “SWATing.”)
8.) They will use time-delayed explosives, time-delayed incendiaries, time-delayed bursting toxin containers, cell phone-triggered IEDs, computer program worms and viruses, and long-range standoff weapons to minimize the risk of being detected, apprehended, or killed. Likely targets will be Federal buildings, courthouses, SWAT training facilities, police training ranges, and especially the private residences of anyone deemed to be a gun-grabber.
9.) They will use anonymous re-mailers and VPN to encourage others to resist by forming their own leaderless resistance cells.
10.) They will begin a War of Attrition on the Door Kickers, with tactics such as these:
  A.) Ambushing SWAT vehicles while in transit, rather than waiting for the SWAT teams to set up raids.
  B.) Ambushing individual SWAT team members at unexpected times and places–most likely at their homes.
  C.) Sabotaging SWAT vehicles, most likely with time-delayed incendiaries.
  D.) Targeting SWAT teams or individual team members while they are at home, in training, or when attending conventions.
  E.) Harassing and intimidating individual SWAT team members and their families. The systematic burning of their privately-owned vehicles and their unoccupied homes and vacation cabins will be unmistakable threats.
11.) They will individually target “gun control” advocates, organizers, and group leaders.
12.) They will individually target the judges that issue gun seizure warrants.
13.) They will individually target journalists who have vocally advocated civilian disarmament.
14.) Some owners of M1 Carbines, AR-15s and HKs in the resistance movement will convert them to selective fire. (They will assume: “Well, if it is now a felony to possess a semi-auto, then what is the harm in making it a full auto?”)
15.) They will be willing to wage an ongoing guerilla warfare campaign using both passive and active resistance until the collectivists relent. This would be something like “The Troubles” in Northern Ireland, but on a larger scale, with greater ferocity, and with far more weapons readily available. Unlike the IRA, which had to import arms, all of the the firearms, magazines, and ammunition needed for any American resistance movement are already in situ. It is noteworthy that the agreed “Decommissioning” the Irish Republican Army (IRA) was delayed for more than five years because of their remaining caches of arms, which by then included only around 1,000 battle rifles!)
The Gun Confiscation End Game
I believe that once it was started, the whole affray would be settled within just a few weeks or months. American gun owners clearly have the numbers on their side. Once the shooting starts, the gun-hating politicians will quickly feel isolated, vastly outnumbered, and incredibly vulnerable. And when they realize they’ve lost their Door Kicker shock troops, they will capitulate. After some horrendous casualties in a brief but fierce civil war, the politicians would be forced to:
  1. Declare a cease fire and stand-down for all gun confiscation raiders.
  2. Repeal all Federal gun laws.
  3. Order the destruction of all Federal import, purchase, transfer, and registration records
  4. Issue unconditional pardons for all convicted Federal gun law violators.
  5. Declare a general amnesty for all involved in the resistance, and drop all pending charges.
  6. Disband the BATFE.

Without all six of those, the hostilities would continue.

But There’s More
The foregoing math on the roughly 20 million semi-auto rifles is not the full extent of the problem for the gun grabbers. Additionally, there are at least 50 million centerfire handguns that would be suitable for resistance warfare. (And another 3 million being made or imported each year.) There are also perhaps 40 million scoped centerfire deer rifles in private hands. The vast majority of those have no traceable paper trail. Fully capable of 500+ yard engagement, these rifles could be employed to out-range the tyrants and their minions.

 

Then there are the estimated 1.5 million unregistered machineguns now in the country.  Except for a 30-day amnesty in 1968 that generated only about 65,000 registrations, they have been contraband since 1934. Their number is particularly difficult to accurately estimate, since some semi-autos such as the M1 Carbine, HK91/93/94 series, and AR-15 are fairly easy to convert to selective fire. Similarly, nearly all “open bolt” semi-auto designs are easy to convert to full auto. Large numbers of conversion parts sets have been sold, with little recordkeeping. Some guns can be converted simply by removing sear springs or filing their sears. Just a trickle of unregistered full autos are seized or surrendered each year. This begs the question: If Federal officials have been unable to round up un-papered machineguns after 84 years, then how do they expect to ever confiscate semi-autos, which are 15 times more commonplace?

As evidenced by the 1990s wars in the Balkans, when times get inimical, contraband guns get pulled out of walls and put into use. We can expect to see the same, here.

Now, to get back to the simple mathematics, here are some ratios to ponder:

  • NRA members (5.2 million) to Door Kickers (82,863) = 63-to-1 ratio
  • Military veterans (20.4 million) to Door Kickers (82,863) = 249-to-1 ratio
  • Unregistered machineguns (1.5 million) to Door Kickers (82,863) = 18-to-1 ratio
  • Privately owned semi-auto rifles (40 million) to Door Kickers (82,863) = 485-to-1 ratio
Unintended Consequences
The mathematics that I’ve cited don’t bode well for the gun-grabbing collectivists. If they ever foolishly attempt to confiscate semi-auto rifles, then it will be “Game On” for Civil War 2. I can foresee that they would run out of willing Door Kickers, very quickly.

I’ll conclude with a word of caution: Leftist American politicians should be careful about what they wish for. Those who hate the 2nd Amendment and scheme to disarm us have no clue about the unintended consequences of their plans. If they proceed, then I can foresee that it will end very badly for them. – JWR

End Notes:

Again, the preceding is a purely conjectural gedankenexperiment about the future that extrapolates from recent history and current trends. None of the foregoing is seditious (per 18 U.S. Code § 2384), nor a call to arms, nor a threat to our government or to any individual, agency, or group.

Permission to reprint, re-post or forward this article in full is granted, but only if credit is given to James Wesley, Rawles and first publication in SurvivalBlog (with a link.) It must not be edited or excerpted, and all included links must be left intact.


162 Comments

    2. Mr. Rawles,
      One of the things you might consider are the people that hate us, like Isis and MS-13. That probably have cells here, that are planning to attack us in a US version of a Tet offensive. If the shooting War started they would probably use that as an opportunity to come against us, to bring this country down. So we might end up with a lot more on our hands.

      1. There’d be a relatively low number of those, don’t you think? Especially if the guns are already out, I think they’ll be walking pretty small except in their own neighborhoods.

    3. Ok, I agree with your thoughts and am sure that some gun grabbers are also well aware of the math. How are they going to try and neutralize the 2A?

      1. What makes either of you believe that the gangbangers, terrorists, etc wouldn’t also take advantage of the chaos to rob, steal, and create additional disorder? How would this assist the government except to spread their resources out even further and show how bankrupt their policies would be.

    4. Mr R

      The door kickers don’t have to confiscate 400M guns. They’ll just confiscate, very publicly and very violently, from one gun owner at a time. The long slow erosion of 2A, and the arrival of more fully indoctrinated children into the demographic mix means that the eventual confiscation will happen. They won’t be using people, they’ll drone the gunholder, with small Raytheon smart munitions released from drones. They’ll strangle the gunowners finances, comm, and ability to transact a life

      Grabbers don’t worry about you and me … we’ll be gone in 20 or 30 years. The New Red Brigades are already here and increasing their ranks.

      I expect much sportiness, and much mayhem

      1. Not sure what part of the country you live, but the Feds had a rude wake up with the response from the Bundy incident. I live in NE Utah and locals were mobilizing and head that way to support the rancher. I am sure the reaction to door to door gun collection would turn deadly real quick. Difference, it would be country wide and open season.

      2. Remember this: There is NO Geneva Convention if this thing goes down, and When on Home Turf, I can be more ruthless then even the Drug Cartels are.
        No one out does an American Standing on His own Soil.
        Take the restraints away and the Horror of what’s about to befall the Enemy and their minions. Some people just need Killing,and The Left will be the Targets
        THAT is when You Terrorize the Terrorists.
        I saw what was done to Americans, in VietNam, and had the Geneva accords not been in place, they’d have gotten back MORE than they put out.
        Hatred is a strong motivator, and those who would destroy My Country have EARNED MY Hatred. If THEY Start it, there will be NO Mercy for ANY of them.

      3. They’ll have trouble identifying millions of anonymous gun owners and their drones won’t survive the onslaught either. Besides, if a single BAR could take out a strafing Nazi plane during WWII, how would some lightweight drone fare against more numerous and more advanced firepower. I’d like to see a video of a drone on the receiving end of a dragon-breath round from a 12 gauge.

        1. It’s not necessary to physically take out the drones. One simply kills the operators – at some point they have to eat, sleep, etc. – and destroys the infrastructure allowing them to operate, much like one doesn’t directly attack an Abrams tank, one kills the fuel truck driver and mechanics that allow it to keep operating and destroy the fuel and ammunition trucks.

          The drone operators – as is the case with Abrams operating and support personnel – have to eat, sleep, etc. and they all have families: wives, husbands, children, brothers, sisters, parents, nieces, nephews, etc. If it ever becomes “Game On” there will be no rules and no quarter given, and it won’t end until the problem is completely eradicated because, as JWR pointed out it will be “leaderless resistance” with small groups and individuals operating independently – a negotiated truce or cease fire will be impossible, it will just have to run its course. Even with enacting the 6 mandatory provisions there will be scores being settled for months, perhaps years, because almost no one will trust the government to act in open good faith; Israel never stopped hunting former Nazis, some Americans will never stop hunting, either.

          I very sincerely hope the anti-American Left comes to its senses and recognizes the folly they seem to want to pursue, on all issues, not just gun ownership. The end result will probably be the destruction of the United States. Which may be just what they want.

    5. ABSOLUTELY Outstanding…point of view..THE REALITY IS THIS IS AMERICA…HOME OF THE FREE AND THE LAND OF MANY BRAVE MEN AND WOMEN WILLING TO LIE DOWN THEIR LIVES FOR THIS GREAT NATION OUR FOREFATHERS FOUGHT AND DIED FOR THIS ….MANY OF US TOOK A OATH BEFORE GOD TO DEFEND THIS GREAT NATION AND I WILL HONOR THAT OATH …GOD BLESS AMERICA….

    7. If you think the Posse Comitatus Act is going to prevent gun grabbers (when they are in power) form using the military as back up for LEO door kickers, deluded is the kindest word that I have for describing your awareness of how government “brings down the hurt” when they want to.

      In the final analysis law does not prevent oppressors from oppressing. The legal rational will be invented, the Posse Comitatus Act will be ignored, rationalized, parsed, tied up in litigation, or narrowed in application to near oblivion.

      “The strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must._–
      Athenian General Thucydides

      That is government.

      1. Which will expand the target pool. Assuming the military will go along. See, what you forget is that we’re your neighbors. If military ordnance hits our houses, you and your families will be “collateral damage.” Think carefully.

      2. Poolside at the Decline – I agree. I have lost faith in the elected officials’ desire to follow the rule of law. They will simply ignore it, or the sitting President (doubtfully Trump) may attempt to take our guns by Executive 0rder. It does not matter though. I think gun owners’ are so fed up that like JW said, they will either never comply, or they will give the “appearance of compliance” and throw the grabber dogs a bone while keeping their real cache well-hidden. Not me of course, I lost all of my guns in a freak ski-ball accident at a Bachelorette Party at Chuck-E-Cheeses in the ball pit 14 months ago. Apparently there was a previously undetected sink-hole in the ball-pit and all of my weapons are somewhere in middle earth surrounded by brightly colored plastic balls by now. (Farmers wouldn’t cover the loss either.) So now I have no guns. 😉 From deplorable to adorable…Lol!

    8. Do a sequel where the military is in on it. Posse Comitatus will be ignored if the Left makes this play. Also consider NSA access to affectively all communications, identification of all people communicating regarding any resistance, and targeting those individuals. Consider also a complete shutdown of all cell phone and Internet access in place is most likely to resist, or of individuals most likely to resist. This is a very good article, but the fundamental presumption of a half hearted effort to confiscate against a full scale resistance does not give a complete picture. I would very much like to see you reimagine this scenario with a full-scale commitment by the all of the assets of the government sector, including surveillance in military, again civilian gun owners. My personal thought experiments in this regard suggests that the government I would very much like to see you reimagine this scenario with a full-scale commitment by the all of the assets of the government sector, including surveillance in military, again civilian gun owners. My personal thought experiments in this regard suggests that the government wins.

    9. Seems you omitted a potentially strong tactic for the “gun-grabbing” advocates, namely a bounty for anonymous tips leading to locating verboten weapons. Paired with a program of food and medical services restrictions, it would be a most motivating incentive for cooperation. If the casualty causing tactics are employed by either side it will probably take quite a while to put the toothpaste back into the tube. The end result is not foreordained.

  3. To further reduce the gun grabbing, I think elected sheriffs, especially in non-urban counties, would have nothing to do with a firearm seizure program.

  4. Every gun owner, actually every American should read Unintended Consequences, It shows how the U.S. Gov has been lying to us since the 1930s. It’s a great read.

  5. The numbers are encouraging. However, the predicted consequences presume ‘they’ will play by the rules. If the circumstances are deemed to support confiscation, it won’t be a halfhearted effort. An option I can imagine is an appeal to the UN’s efforts at small arms control. A large part of today’s US population would easily accept that national sovereignty is consistent with the nationalism supported by extremists. The results would still be messy but that is what propaganda and control of the flow of information are for.

    1. Guess what happens when U.N. “peacekeepers” meet up with U.S. “piecekeepers?” I’m betting on the Constitution-loving Americans..

      1. Ask the Bosnians from Srebenicza (sp?) about UN peacekeepers. Worthless sacks. I saw the afterman, and spent a year in that garden spot searching for evidence of this and other atrocities eventually used at The Hague.

  6. How does one buy a gun off the books at a gun show? Or anywhere else for that matter? How do you know a Dealer from a non-dealer in guns?

    1. In about 40 States, no paperwork is required for private party sales. When strolling through a gun show, look for the tables with USED guns. These usually don’t have their original factory boxes. If a table has guns all laid out on top of their boxes, then that is most likely a seller who is a FFL holder, and paperwork would be required when buying from the, except for : 1.) Muzzleloaders and 2.) Pre-1899 manufactured guns.

      1. JWR:

        After I Left my comment in Redoubt section of the Blog and left for work (glad to see ya’ll got the bug fixed) I realized ‘No U.N.’…????
        Come on James, tell me you left that out as a teez for all of your readers! Yes?
        I know there’s an added equation with the U.N. Figured in,…right?
        If so, please let us know, ….o.k. …ya the suspense is there, killing us. lol.

        1. The use of foreign troops to enforce an American gun ban would surely create an even larger resistance movement. Some Americans might balk at firing on their own countrymen who by then had become statist bullyboys. But far fewer would have any reluctance to fire on an encamped foreign army that is engaged in gun grabbing. It did not end well for the Hessians, nor would it for foreign Blue Helmets.

          1. JWR:

            I am VERY aware of how bad it ended for the Hessians, I did my Senior year of high school in Morrisville, Pa., they are big on local history of the Revolutionary War, or they were, anyway.

            I know I would not!

            Semper Fi!

          2. Sorry, ‘I would not hesitate to fire on INVADING troops!’

            I guess it helps to finish one’s thought’s before hitting the ‘enter’ button.

    2. I think just going on (Craig’s list) a person could find a gun seller. Or like JW,RAWLES says look for the tables with used guns showing you could find one. The local newspaper is a good choice also. I have used both with good results. Look at the seller and then the gun, if you know what I mean.

      1. Unfortunately Craigslist does not allow gun or ammunition ads. But many regions have “Nickel” classified ad papers that are distributed free. In most of those, private party gun ads are still allowed.

    4. Up until recently you could look in your local newspaper under sporting goods and find a wide array of personal firearms for sale. I just did a quick check of two papers in different areas where firearms were commonly found only to see they no longer advertise them. I’m sure Mr. Rawles is correct in that you will have to look in much smaller non mainstream papers and traders to find them listed. Also, at the gun shows, you will usually see (depending on the size of the show) dozens of people walking around carrying firearms with for sale signs. Frequently, they will be offering extra magazines and even ammo with the purchase. You can also check for “estate sales” advertised in your area as often times they will sell grandpa’s firearms along with everything else.

    5. Ask the Bosnians from Srebenicza (sp?) about UN peacekeepers. Worthless sacks. I saw the afterman, and spent a year in that garden spot searching for evidence of this and other atrocities eventually used at The Hague.

    6. At a gun show it’s pretty simple – the ffl gun dealers are selling guns. The non ffl merchants are selling everything but guns. No official merchant at a gun show is selling a firearm unless they are an ffl – they background check every purchaser. In most places though, you will see individuals wondering the aisles with a rifle slung, or even a cart with firearms and they have a sign about being for sale. Simply go the parking lot and complete the transaction. Quite common.
      , and perfectly legal. This is what the liberal whack jobs are referring to when they breathlessly discuss the “gun show loophole”, which is about as nonsensical and assault weapon in terms of meaning.

      1. Only in certain locales. There are plenty of places where you need not have an FFL to sell guns at a gun show, provided you do not make a BUSINESS of selling guns. I am lucky to live in one such state, and private sales within shows ( both in the aisles and at tables with private collections ) are perfectly legal and quite common.

  7. This is another example of the precariousness of liberalism: in order for liberalism to advance it is necessary that Constitutionalists abide by unconstitutional law while liberals regularly circumvent and undermine the Constitution. Should respect for the law ever crumble, the results would be devasting for liberalism since they are both unwilling and unable to do their own wet work. Hired thugs are notoriously unreliable. At the same time we must pray and labor to retain the rule of law. We are no longer a sufficiently moral people to endure anarchy. A new American revolution is far more likely to resemble the French revolution than the original American revolution. Thank God for Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Neil Gorsuch and others who are drawing our nation back from the brink. I shudder to think of the alternative.

  9. This info is spot on!!! This is why I carry 24/7….I feel all this government firearm confiscation is all BS. There way too many of us that will defend the 2nd Amendment from government attempt to destroy it.

  10. Who are the militia? Are they not ourselves? Is it feared, then, that we shall turn our arms each man against his own bosom. Congress have no power to disarm the militia. Their swords, and every other terrible implement of the soldier, are the birthright of an American… The unlimited power of the sword is not in the hands of either the federal or state governments, but, where I trust in God it will ever remain, in the hands of the people. (William & Mary Bill of Rights Journal)

  11. The number of firearms could be much, much more. On BATF form 4473 up to 4 firearms could be listed in one transfer and at gun auctions this happens a lot.

    1. When I worked at a local Bass Pro I sold five or more guns several times on the same 4473. One couple in particular bought 3 Browning semi-auto 22LR’s, one S&W 1911, and one Browning Citori. Maybe the form has changed in the last 6 years though.

  13. Myself rendering these kinds of statistics and thoughts on Facebook is what got my page deleted! I don’t miss FB at all. Liberal, globalist Marxists who’s ultimate objective is to destroy America can’t stand the idea that there are actually people who support and defend the Constitutional Republic and try to provide reason and logic to an issue rather than hand wringing emotionalism.

  14. Good article. AR numbers are higher then I expected and M1A numbers lower.
    The best way to stop a government grab of our 2nd A rights and other liberties is to have term limits at all levels of government.
    In response to confiscation remove each politician at all levels who voted in favor and against their oath to defend the constitution.
    You don’t have to take on the DOJ or HLS

    1. In addition, impeach the judges who uphold unconstitutional laws. To get the term limits though, it’s going to take a Constitutional Amendment. The reason is that most states won’t want to impose it on themselves without it also being imposed on all the other states as well. Seniority is a big deal in D.C. and in state capitals as well, and no state wants to give up any potential tactical advantage in politics without it being unilateral.

  15. Law abiding civilians often times do have shyness to be criminalized. It is difficult to be the selfless starter and with the fear that you are being made an example off, J W Rawles might have overlooked a problem. During the Nazi war, on their own, the Nazis rounding up the Jews, the Jews totally outnumbered the Nazis. In many cases one guy with a revolver in hand (six shooter) can hold a hundred people hostage, mostly because no one wants to be the first victim. However, once the first few innocent victims fall and a public trend to revolt starts rolling up (avalanche style), a growing momentum will support a full out revolt. The 100 hostages – the first 6 victims – will simply take the hostage-holder’s gun away and beat him with his own gun. Another scenario JW Rawles didn’t consider is that all the government would have to do to disarm us is cut off east / west transportation, blow a few bridges and start food – want riots among the people and declare martial law. Martial law is controlled by our National Guard. Food riots will probably be enough for people to start killing each other and the government will make a food peace offering and trade food for guns. But, even with my scenario, it is full civil war and millions of people will die, something that the money-makers (Federal Reserve People – shadow rulers) definitely not want, because it will cut into their profits, and possibly even lead to removal of the Federal Reserves all together.

    1. Mr. thomas:
      Sir, I like your train of thought and your scenario is a very real possibility, how ever I believe the American People are smart enough to figure out that the one who need shooting are NOT your next door neighbor, but the Tyrannical Socialist Politicians.

      1. Food is the most potent weapon available to a government that wishes to become tyrannical. Nothing will force a man to turn against his deepest principles than the starvation of his family. He will turn in his brother or friend for the smallest scrap of bread if his child is dying. How many have a months worth of food in the house? Probably less than one in ten thousand. The supermarkets now run on the just-in-time system. They no longer keep stock in the back. The computerized inventory system automatically orders replenishment based on a per-determined algorithm. How long do you think it would take for the overwhelming majority to turn in their firearms for a box of food? How many would turn in their best friend? My guess is that select areas with high concentrations of like-minded individuals will be okay. Most of the country will not. I’m not saying that we won’t be victorious; I am saying that it will be very ugly.

        1. I grow my own or will take it from the Enemy that Does have it, and that doesn’t count Hunting & Fishing.
          I also keep about 2 weeks worth( More if rationed properly) of food, on hand.
          Activated Charcoal and Coffee filters, to clean H2O.
          I Reload and Cast My own Bullets. I own No Ar’s. M16’s and Barrettas will be plentiful, From the Dead. As will Ammo.
          The Enemy WILL Furnish what I don’t have. I’ve been watching this country go south so long, that I started “Collecting Decades ago. I was an Infantry Instructor and Combat proven ( C.I.B. Recipient).
          God forbid it happens, but if it does, the blood will not stop flowing until every known Leftist, Globalist, Tyrant is DEAD. No jail sentences for them. Treason is punishable by death. Media Types included.
          Moreover, it Will be done Publicly. So those who would side with them, like Teachers Union folk, will know what’s coming.
          Once TSHTF it’ll be Cleaning House of all the compromisers of our Rights. Once and for all. Or at least for another 240 years.

          1. Planning on being an armed looter isn’t a plan for anything except for finding yourself — deservedly — dangling on the end of a rope, in a noose tied by your neighbors’ hands.

            Stop posturing about what a bad-*** you are, and start actually PREPARING.

        2. The ones most likely to be armed are also the most likely to have food storage as well. They’d be starving their own sheep, not their perceived enemy, the armed citizen.

    2. That’d be a lot of arteries of transportation to cut off. Too, wouldn’t they also be cutting off their own food supply lines, since it’s not grown or raised in the cities where these tyrants live? Many of us west of the Mississippi can hunt and forage for our own food while the ones starving would be the sheeple who support those despots. I don’t they’d be stupid enough think that would work against the same armed populace of which they are already afraid.

    1. That would be a warrant to search for and seize a firearm, gun part, or ammunition, just for the sake of its very existence, as private property. ALL Federal gun laws are unconstitutional.

      1. All gun laws period at any level including those prohibiting former felons from owning and bearing arms are unconstitutional.

        Its lawful for private property, some state buildings to bar carrying and of course anyone in custody to be disarmed.

        Once said person is released, arms must be returned. And note things like lifetime parole are cruel and unusual so no workarounds, If someone cannot ever be trusted with arms lock them up or hang them.

  17. I believe a lot of our National Guard would refuse to “police” citizens who are standing up for a constitutional right. Many years ago LE formed a group called “Operation Vampire” to counter gun confiscation ( I believe in the 1980’s), I don’t know if it still exists.

    1. That was Project Vampire Killer, promoted by retired police officer Jack McLamb. In recent years that movement has morphed into the 3 Percent / Oathkeepers movement.

      1. JWR & Mr. Dan:

        My goodness, ya’ll actually remember “Vampire Killer”? I never mentioned it cause I, and a lot of others, thought it was just a…well a little ‘thing’.
        Talk about going back in time. It’s nice to know I’m in good company.

  18. The gun numbers are probably much higher. With multiple gun purchases at one time is one way to throw off the FBI number. Another is the states that allow CCW owners to buy guns with out another background check as long as their CCW is current.

    Canada’s gun registration scheme has been a huge failure, thankfully they used the same company Obama used for healthcare dot gov. Spent years and millions of dollars and still not right. Guess we should be thankful for incompetent government flunkies with more power delusions than brains.

    Either way, I like those odds.

  19. JWR, crew, and fellow Americans:

    I just came from Fox News.com and the head line was “Obama-Ear Failure”.
    I had heard rumblings of Obama and his ilk giving weapons to the enemy and now there is proof.

    I would Like to see the Socialist Politicians from the U.S. try to enforce there ‘wanna be anti-2nd amendment trash over there in the sand box. LMAO!

    God Bless Our Great Nation.

    A Republic If We Can Keep It, I Say We Keep It!

    1. In New Orleans following Katrina, DemocRat Mayor Ray Nagin ordered his police department to use the city’s gun registration records to round up all of the privately owned firearms of the citizens, and do so without bothering with a search warrant. They did so at the point of a bayonet because they had the addresses where firearms had been registered. The action of course was unconstitutional but the owners never got their guns back, many of which wound up in the private collections of New Orleans police. As a form of consolation, Nagin was later convicted of bribery and is doing a ten-year stretch in the federal prison in Texarkana. LESSON LEARNED: NEVER REGISTER YOUR FIREARMS WITH ANY GOVERNMENT AGENCY.

  21. RE: ALTERNATIVE TO CIVIL WAR: This is all very interesting but for the reasons you describe I don’t see it happening that way, not all at once. Modern Liberals, Socialist, and Progressives working to the benefit of want-a-be tyrants have advanced their cause through incrementalism and stealth over most of the past 100 years. They have had surges of success during national crisis but overall the slow relentless “progression” of Socialism now has almost half or Americans dependent on Government, and most people under age 35 believing it is Governments responsibility to provide food, medical treatment, and some would add Cable TV, internet, and I-phone service for constant anywhere streaming of free Netflixs. The point is that a large part of America has already succumbed to Socialist propaganda without any serious threat of deprivations. Many of those remaining are not immune. After every school shooting politicians feel they have to “do something” to appease their constituents. As a result basic human rights are eroded. Throw in regular and frequent False Flag shootings in schools and other public places and it will be difficult to find anyone not in favor of gun bans. Once the resistance begins to shoot it will be declared an insurrection or war and the U.S. Military will be ordered into the fight. The protections of the Constitution will not be there for rebel terrorist. The violence and blood will prove that guns should be confiscated. It is likely that the 2nd amendment would be eliminated officially by legal amendment of the Constitution.

    This all seems very gloomy but there is an alternative to Civil War. It is this. While the Heartland still has old fashion American values, and before most of the old “grey hairs” are dead, a Constitutional Convention of the States could be convened. Such a convention could make a very few amendments to the Constitution that would help secure freedom and liberty for all Americans and to push back progression of tyranny.

    1. Mr. Old John:

      “-That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,-That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.” The Declaration of Independence.

      While I agree that a Constitutional Convention of the States would be the best way to put the Socialist ilk in its rightful place, (under the thumb of We The People), I do not believe it will go that way, unfortunately a lot of the sheeple do not realize that they are SHEEPLE!, that they have been duped!

      Yes sir, unfortunately, there is very high probability that there will be a 2nd American Civil War and it will be We The People of the Republic vs The Socialist, and if you please re-read Mr. Rawles’ essay you will see that the Socialist will loose.

      We need to Pray Ya’ll!

      A Republic If We Can Keep It, I Say We Keep It!
      Semper Fi!
      God Bless.

    2. The essence of the OP are clear enough to the powers-that-be. And so, as is perfectly evident, the strategy being pursued is that of the anaconda. Bit by bit the strength of the gun-culture is being squeezed. To again inhale a little, one must exhale. And upon exhaling, the anaconda squeezes a little tighter making it ever more difficult to inhale the next time. Like a ratchet, the tool ever tightens and does not loosen.

      The gun-culture as it has been traditionally lends itself to this process. Based on hunting, plinking and marksmanship at ranges, the “free-range” for these activities dies with the trend toward urbanization. Even in, say Texas, it dies as Texans migrate to cities and suburbs.

      I say these things NOT as a PESSIMIST! Not ALL the forces of change are detrimental. The visual media make the “romance” of guns every more ubiquitous. The news make us ever more conscious of the risk of criminal attack even as the statistics move favorably. The news of violence beyond our borders – both near and far – make it every more obvious that a “well regulated militia [is] necessary for the security of a free state”.

      The point, here, is to recognize the forces of social evolution and capitalize on them. Promoting traditional shooting sports will not be sufficient to defend the right to keep and bear arms. It’s essential to cultivate the notion of personal responsibility for defense of self and loved-ones. Until the physical laws of the space-time continuum are overcome, it will remain true that “when seconds count, the sheriff is only _____ away”. Whether you fill the blank with weeks, days or minutes, the conclusion remains unchanged.

      Let’s start thinking of out-reach to the most vulnerable of our national neighbors. Women; poor; minorities; anyone likely to be targeted for profit/revenge/prejudice. These folks must begin to think of what they themselves might do for themselves. Begin with simply locking your door; ultimately, it’s contemplating the right to keep and bear arms.

    3. Education about our Constitutional rights and our national history are key to preserving our rights. There should be a law that to run for office at any level you have provide proof of citizenship with your application for office and you should be required to pass a test over the Constitution much like that required to become a naturalized citizen. I’d almost wager that would result in Cali-“foreign”-ia to be almost entirely run by naturalized citizens within a short time due to most graduates in that state being unable to pass such a test. And that would be an improvement. Unfortunately that would still leave the Constitutionally-illiterate and logic-deprived mass media trying to use their undeserved influence and fake news to sway the public to their viewpoint.

  23. Japan elected not to invade the continental United states due to the fear that there was a gun behind every blade of grass. No invading army could ever overtake an armed population. And another civil war would last less than 5 days when a constitutional right was being infringed. I ask the question who controls the weapons..? Not the ones who want to take them away.

  24. By all means, please, try to enact this plan. It’s going to be hilarious watching a bunch of morbidly obese seniors get pistol whipped into the ground by the ATF

    1. Mr. Jim Robinson:

      Please re-read Mr. Rawles’ essay. This is not Public Socialist School math this good old fashioned 2+2 math and the answer is …. they do not have the numbers!
      lastly, if you think that every single 50yr old is out of shape your are very sadly mistaken or your one of those trolling Socialist looking to stir the garbage pyle, just because you can, just because your trying to get a rise out of Patriots. Anyway you slice it you, sir, are clueless, and I ask you to please re-read Mr. Rawles’ essay. Thanx.

    2. Being cocky about the weakness or abilities of a foe is the first step in defeat.

      No disrespect whatsoever to the veterans, but those peasant farmers in Vietnam sure gave the big ol’ U.S.A. hell and we had air superiority.

      Any returning soldier will tell you the people living in the stone age in Afghanistan are a very formidable foe without airplanes, tanks, modern rifles, communications, medical units etc.

      The people of this country could topple this anti 2A movement in no time without ever having a civil war.

      Just some well placed bullets in the right people will stop it quickly. Let them and their families live in real fear for more than a few weeks and their zeal for gun control will cease.
      After a few key anti’s are gone nobody will want to pick up the torch and continue.

    3. You are the EXACT Type being spoken of, here. And NOT in a good way.
      I’m old & Fat, but I shoot nearly as well as I used to, and that’s pretty damned good. Even when being shot back at.
      Clowns who think those UnWARRANTED (i.e. “No Knock”) folks are going to meet no IMMEDIATE response, read lethal force, don’t have a clue as to what Both Young (Children) and the Old, (like me), not to mention Women, ARE capable of.
      Having served in VietNam as an Infantryman. The NVA and VC showed how to fight as INSURGENTS. Such simple things can be made Lethal. Making trip wires and electric detonators with common can tops and bottoms with a battery attached to Clothes pins, a little plastic (in between the punched can tops), all attached to whatever is to make the BOOM, is just ONE of the many things they taught Me.
      Children and women will be Decoys. Combat with the Guerillas was a real “Learning Experience”, to say the least. You can bet Your Life, I’ll NEVER Forget what was learned, and THAT “Teaching Moment” has and Will continue to be Taught
      Believe Me, People Fighting for their Homeland get REAL inventive, and there’s a ton of “good ole boys” who are even more inventive than Me, and Won’t give up, ever.
      Something a Snowflake can’t even grasp.
      I have a Son-in-law, I am ashamed to say, who’s a US ARMY Major, and would do whatever is needed to get His Retirement. Read “Follow Orders”. He already has made statements allowing “Open Borders” for Illegal Aliens( Read Invaders), sooo, this will split families, but So did the First Civil War/Revolution.
      As long as the Govnt Starts this I can go to my grave with a clean conscience, and that is a Powerful Motivation and comfort.
      God Bless Our CONSTITUTION and our PEOPLE.
      Painful Deaths to ALL Tyrants and their minions

  25. “What if Thomas Paine had an M14, or if Patrick Henry went to Thunder Ranch? They couldn’t, but you can! They had the soul, but needed better gear. We have the gear, but need stronger soul.” Boston’s Gun Bible, Boston T. Party (Kenneth Royce)

    1. Consider that should door-to-door gun confiscation ever occur, they will have to search virtually every home, including yours, because very few people will admit to owning a gun. Unrecorded guns are so prevalent, and so wide spread that anyone, and everyone will be suspected of having guns, including those that claim to be anti-gun. And, anything found can, and will be used against you by the government.

      Also, consider that known anti-gun individuals will likely be targeted by those seriously angered by gun confiscation raids taking place. You, and your family will likely become targets. If you are as anti-gun as you sound, you will have no way to protect yourself, and the police cannot, and will not be able to protect you 24 / 7. Read some history about how suspected collaborators, people like you, have been dealt with during various wars, and civil wars around the world.

      This is NOT a threat, just reality. So, be very careful of what you wish for…..

  26. This is powerful stuff. Thanks JWR, thanks for keeping watch. I think possibly we are heading into uncharted waters and America as we know may be on the verge of upheaval. Politicians and media have never been so dishonest, I fear for America, but not for myself.

    TWB

  27. That was the best article I’ve ever read. I’ve been saying for years that gun confiscation will be attempted but it will fail. And even though the whole ordeal would be bloody and bad I just bet that there are thousands upon thousands of good ole boys out there who are armed up and pumped up and actually HOPING that gun confiscation will be tried. They’ve probably already compiled a list of local targets that they will neutralize which most likely would include certain LE, certain politicians and certain local media personalities. They probably have stashes of booby traps, full auto weapons, incendiary devices and other tools of war that most of us have never thought about. Hopefully it will never come to all this. Hopefully the far left anti gunners will read Jim’s article and reconsider.

  28. The gun-banners clearly do not understand the manner in which markets function, nor do they understand that the government can’t really “ban” any activity where there exists a strong demand for a good or service, and sellers (legal or otherwise) to supply those goods and services. If Fed.gov bans the open sale of alcohol or drugs or firearms, then the market for those things doesn’t simple disappear, it merely moves out of the light and into the shadows, namely the underground economy and black market.

    The history of alcohol prohibition and the so-called war on drugs provide useful analogs for proposed bans on private ownership of firearms. With the passage of the Volstead Act of 1919 and the 18th amendment to the U.S. Constitution, the manufacture, sales, distribution and consumption of all alcoholic beverages was prohibited – and overnight, law-abiding citizens were turned into criminals at the stroke of a pen.

    The demand for such did not end there, however. Citizens wishing to slake their thirst with beer, wine or spirits, simply made their way to the local speak-easy to consume some of the proverbial forbidden fruits. The mob, heretofore a relatively insignificant force in U.S. society, overnight became a formidable and highly-profitable operation, thanks to rum-running and smuggling of booze from outside the country to inside the U.S., most-often from Canada or along the eastern seaboard.

    One of the unintended consequences – or was it intended all along? – was to make the mafia into such a criminal force that it took the FBI decades to finally defeat them (back when the FBI actually solved crimes and served the people and not the deep-state).

    An underground or black market in banned firearms would make Alcohol Prohibition look like child’s play. Since it would already be a felony to own a semi-automatic firearm, buyers would likely go “all in” and get the military-grade hardware – fully automatic weapons, you name it. Think Mexico on steroids or perhaps Mogadishu, Somalia, and you’re on the right track.

    Nor does it end there. The science and technology behind firearms and ammunition is and has been for a long time a mature technology. Beretta of Italy has been making high-quality firearms since before the existence of the United States, to name one example. Brass cased smokeless powder high-velocity ammunition has been around since the 1880s, and it too, is a mature technology.

    A reasonably skilled amateur machinist in a basement workshop or garage can turn out crudely-produced but functional weapons in a remarkably short amount of time. Although the chemistry and metallurgy behind manufacturing ammunition is somewhat more difficult, it too can be done by a reasonably competent chemist or chemical engineer, using commonly-available starting materials.

    Remember, these “guerilla gunsmiths and ammunition makers” needn’t turn out millions of arms or rounds; they merely need to make enough to enable them to attack opposition forces and confiscate their arms and ammunition and other weapons.

    More bad news for the statists: If a full-scale ban is put into effect, and the government manages to put into place some sort of comprehensive ban on the possession of arms and ammunition, there is still the problem of exogenous sources, sources outside the U.S. would will be more-than-anxious to supply (smuggle) these commodities to Americans for a handsome profit. The more-strict the ban the higher prices would rise on the street for such simple items as handguns and ammunition for them, to say nothing of long guns and other more-exotic weapons. The narco-terroristas and the Mexican drug cartels are a representative jumping-off point for comparison.

    In closing, let us examine the dry phrase “standing army.” In military lexicon, a standing army is taken to mean a professional military force in being, one which is ongoing and sustained whether in war or peace. However, there is a much older meaning, one connected with the founding of this republic. Namely, the militia composed of all men of military-service age capable of bearing a weapon.

    The traditional modern definition of the militia generally follows that applied to the National Guard, i.e., men of military age, 18-49 years of age. However, in colonial times, there was no upper age cutoff. Gentleman farmer Samuel Whittemore was seventy-eight years of age when he first fought in the Revolutionary War. He survived to the ripe old age of 98 years despite being shot, bayoneted and left for dead by British Redcoats.

    Taking into account all men capable of bearing arms with the hunting community, the United States has the largest standing army on earth by a considerable margin. Using issued hunting licenses in the U.S.A. serves as a useful approximation of these figures. In 2017, there were 36.8 million hunting licenses, tags, stamps, and permits issued in the entire U.S. Even taking into account that some were fishing licenses, one gets an idea of just how vast the numbers are. The number gets even bigger when women firearm owners are taken into account.

    No nation in the world can approach those figures for men under arms – not even the People’s Republic of China, the most-populous nation on earth.

    1. BEST RESPONSE OF ALL! When guns are outlawed, outlaws will still have guns. Look at what a good job the gov has done in stopping the illegal arms trade in places like Chicago and others. All it will take is something valuable to acquire them. Looks like PM will have a strong place in your preps after all.

  31. What a wonderful, well thought-out piece!
    It is also a waste of time…
    The anti-gun lobby do not let mere facts get in the way of their wrath.
    Plus the maths included will probably be beyond them.

  32. JWR, I think your math is right on. Stopping gun-grabbers would be the easy part, though. I’m afraid that some (not most, but enough) would come to see violence as a magic genie to accomplish political goals. “After struggling for decades against gun control politcally, we fixed the problem in a couple months with carefully applied violence… I bet we could fix (insert other real or percieved political problem here: abortion, income taxes, illegal immigration, etc) by using violence, too!” And don’t forget the surviving liberals with an axe to grind. If even a small percentage of the population thinks violence is an acceptable way to get what they want politically, our country could become ungovernable. I would dearly love to hear your thoughts (maybe in a separate article) on how we go about stuffing that genie back in the bottle.

  33. Great article, 100% spot on. I do fully believe they would employ the full force and more of the UN and any other foreign troops that any country would be willing to “forfeit” to the the gun grabbing cause, they would Need entire armies of commies to even have a prayer. With that I also believe they would not even think about doing it on a whim, or with any announcement or laws changed, they would have to go “All in”, scrapping the Constitution and sacrificing America and millions (or more worldwide) of lives for their “Final Push” (Global Enslavement). They would also need to fire EMP’s first to limit our communications, and then fire another EMP a month or so later to knock out our reserve and recently put into use comms before any serious alliances are established. “They” may continue to periodically drop an EMP to keep comms and other helpful devices dead during the entire campaign. They know they have to go all in to even have a chance. Get right with God, form alliances now, plan accordingly. America is the entire worlds last hope. If they get our guns they’ll enslave the entire world, and I believe they will not stop until they get them (or try to). There are evil forces at work here. God Bless.

  34. Since resistance to their gun ban would be seen as an insurrection, I suspect they would use this reason to employ the military to do their dirty work and while there are a fair amount of Oathkeepers in the military I think the vast majority would obey orders to disarm americans “For public safety” of course. This would raise the number of door-kickers as well as the hardware available to them. On the flip side of the said 60 million military age males if we apply the 3% multiplier to them as active combatants, that brings active opposition to 1.8 million however I don’t think modern American military age males hold their beliefs as strongly as our forefathers did in the Revolutionary war, thereby reducing those numbers to probably 600-900 thousand(1-1.5%) souls willing to go toe-to-toe with the dragon. Though I do share JWR’s belief that ultimately we would win, I feel it would take much longer at a much greater cost

  35. 1) The fyrd is a Constitutional imperative. (i.e. “necessary to the security of a free state”)
    2) The people are the militia.
    3) Under such conditions would full auto really be of much use? Ammo would not be as available as it is today and every shot would have to count. 1 shot = 1 dead enemy.
    4) The main difference between a “hunting rifle” and a “sniper rifle” is the target.
    5) better to perish in the struggle for freedom than survive to see defeat.

  36. Eastern Oregon near Snake River, every time there’s a news article about gun confiscation the neighbor (rural) goes outside and fires a full clip off of his AR-15 skywards, and then we hear answering shots from all around, I laugh and laugh. By the way the local nickel ads papers here have 3 pages full of private sale guns available. Eastern Oregon is very conservative and freeloaders lefties/homeless do not stay long here..

  38. Having read all the comments, because they all have relevance and import, I would like to address the use of the National Guard to enforce unconstitutional gun laws.

    Having served with some of their “crack” units…….i do not fear them. I have 20+ years in the Army (retired from that social experiment, thankfully!) , and here is my assessment: I’m not askeered of dem weak-end warriors! If they are not in an armored vehicle (M1 or M2A2 BFV) or 1152 with a crew served weapon up top, then they generally have the outlook and demeanor of mall cops. In general terms, they are used to outer cordon, catch the “squirters” roles, not door kickers, although there are exceptions.

    A few well placed pieces of super-sonic copper/lead amalgamates eliminates and degrades operational capabilities.

  39. If the odds are so stacked against the gov, why aren’t we taking it to the politicians? It seems counter productive to allow them to beat us down, all the while having the superior fire power to quell whatever thuggish behavior might come from them…just saying.

  40. One other huge factor in resistance to this kind of confiscation scheme is today’s social media environment. The first door-kickers to get live streamed as they assault an honest citizen will go viral. The first team to get ambushed by superior firepower while being live streamed will put the first to shame.

    1. If the door-kickers offer people watching their livestream the opportunity to tip them five bucks in exchange for kicking you in the nuts, they would solve America’s debt crisis in a month.

    2. The door-kickers might think a livestream would harm the morale of the “piecekeepers”, but I think it would have the opposite effect. I think it would make most more resolved to be ready to fight. Not only that, but when the door-kickers get the worst end of a raid, they’d be the ones experiencing attrition by a high percentage. Right makes might!

  41. This may have been stated already, please forgive my not looking at all the posts. Door to door may not be absolutely required. If most owners remain in the mainstream culture and they can be identified then banking, dmv, child protective services, home electric/water service can all be used to apply pressure. Including picking the kids up at school for safe keeping.

    1. This is exactly correct. They will seize the 4473s, find pics on social media, etc. Then they won’t even need to show up at your door. Need your driver’s license renewed? Says here you didn’t turn in that gun you own. Want that Social Security check? Says here you didn’t turn in your guns. Want your tax refund? Renewing your passport? They will never need to come to your house, because they can strangle your ability to live in society/feed your family. Sure, they won’t get all the guns, but that’s never been the point.

      1. yes- exactly- they “own” the banks. Guys and gals- my recommendation is to become independent of all of that- you need to be able to support yourself. Hopefully, as JWR says, this would all last only a few weeks to a few months. But do you have the means to feed your family during this time? If you have kids in public schools, car payments, public utilities, mortgages. If your network ain’t already set up- what, are you going to wait to find out? Or do you already know which of your neighbors will have your 6?

        I’m not there yet either, just stuff to think about….

    1. John .

      Hypothetically all one has to do is treat any and all actions by any agents of any agency as an attack on your life, you have the right to self defense from tyranny it really is kind of a REAL AMERICAN Principle. S/FI

  43. It takes courage. A couple thousand years ago, He showed us that courage. I’m 50, belly starting to get big and all but I can still move fast. I still remember my training and still stay as sharp as I can. Preferably, I’d like to survive, but if it came to protecting my group and my faith, it would be an honor, no matter how easily or horrific the possibility of my demise, I’m prepared to do what is necessary for Him that did the the same and more for us. God will be with us all in our struggles. He always has and always will. I have no problem watering the tree. In fact, It’s wilting and needs a good drink. I’m very sure many share my sentiments.

  44. Two points on disagreement:
    1.) “Those who hate the 2nd Amendment and scheme to disarm us have no clue about the unintended consequences of their plans. ”

    I think they understand perfectly.

    2.) “It bears mention that the military would be mostly out of the picture, since they are banned from domestic law enforcement roles, under the Posse Comitatus Act.”

    Under the described scenario, I suspect that Posse Comitatus would be rapidly repealed. The Act did not stop the military (Regular Army) from being used in a law enforcement role during Katrina, which was a benign natural disaster. Do you really think they wouldn’t be used in a period of unrest as described here?

    1. The Posse Comitatus Act repealed? Not likely. Why bother? They don’t give a **** about the Constitution now, so what would one more violation mean?
      .
      As to the military, I am curious as to how many of our active people would fire on citizens. As was posted earlier, people don’t seem to have the same idea of being an ‘American’ as previous generations.
      .
      God help us if we ever have to find out.

        1. AB Prosper IMHO that is a spot on analysis maybe even the brutality of the Southern Colonies during Americas war for Independence from England.

        2. I do hope we never have to find out, as I was in back in ’93 when they were passing around the now infamous questionnaire that included the question, “If ordered to do so, would you fire on American citizens?” Most of the top brass and senior non-coms in my old unit promptly put in their papers once that made the rounds.
          I remember my old Sgt Major saying, “They’ll find someone who will be willing to do it without question. All they have to do is take an urban unit and tell the rank and file “You’re going to this particular area and be careful because the locals absolutely hate blacks and other minorities” and that will be it. They’ll have no problem shooting whoever they’re ordered to shoot.”
          This was back in ’93, since then we’ve had eight years of Clinton, eight years of W essentially doing nothing to remove the traitors from the ranks and then eight years of Barry to finish it off. I try to chat up guys who are in now whenever I can in order to get a feel for what they’re being taught now. Most of what I hear is a loose variation of, “Whatever my superior tells me.”
          I never thought I would be saying this, but I would not trust any U.S. military units being deployed publicly.

    2. Remember how Obummer’s administration bought up all the ammo to “supply” dozens or federal agencies? Most of that ammunition was also banned by the Geneva Convention for use in battle against a foreign enemy. Who does that leave? That ammo was truly bought up to keep it out of civilian hands. I feel truly fortunate that traitor and also HilLIARy are both currently out of power and actually a little surprised but relieved that Obummer didn’t declare martial law when HilLIARy lost the election. He also armed police departments with tanks, armored vehicles, etc. They don’t need those weapons to chase criminals. You can’t trust any politician who goes after your guns. Gun control doesn’t protect anyone except criminals and tyrants, both of which describe HilLIARy and Obummer. The question isn’t why do I want to keep and bear arms. The question is why do they want to ban them.

      “Gun control? … Get a grip!” — EVS

  45. Good article, but I have a couple comments and one error to point out.

    First, the numbers assume ALL agents, LEO’s etc would fall in line. I can tell you, that won’t happen.. Why? Because having been one, I will NOT turn on my oath and will side with the people should a day like that ever come. Our best guess is that about 40% would be ‘yes men’ and would go against the oath they took. The rest of us, no way.

    The article also does not take into account, local law enforcement. The numbers, it is estimated, would be similar in medium to small town America, BUT in big city American, it would probably be more of a 75% yes man who would not follow their oath.. Liberal cities especially.

    One point I did not see mentioned, was the National Guard. They WOULD be called up for such a situation. That is part of the training and plans for such an event (based usually on some form of major disaster scenario). Unlike the US Active Duty Military, the Guard CAN be used for Law Enforcement because they fall under the command of a States Governor, NOT the Federal Government.. UNLESS they have been Federalized.

    So one would need to add the Guard numbers to this equation. It is estimated however, that 85% of the guard would NOT abide by such orders.

    Finally, the US Active duty military. Yes, we are bound by posse comitatus. However, obama changed that when he changed the NDAA wording and signed off on it behind the scenes.

    The NDAA now states that under Presidential authority, the President can, for any deemed national security reason, declare Martial Law and by doing so, immediately suspend most Constitutional laws and rights INCLUDING posse comitatus, there by allowing for the use of US Active Duty Military to be used CONUS.

    Now, many would argue that it would not hold up in court, i.e., SCOTUS would over turn it.. except the problem with that is under martial law, there is NO SCOTUS, no law, only the President and his appointed COG plan and appointed governors.

    When they re-wrote the NDAA, they pretty much gutted everything Constitutionally. Even if it could be taken through the courts, by the time all was said and done, it would already be too late.

    BUT the good news, and every single military type I served with and know in real life, all of us say the same thing.. We would NOT turn on our oath which states, “I will Support and Defend the US Constitution against all enemies, foreign AND domestic, So help me God!”

    Even so, it is estimated in planning that approximately 20-30% of active forces WOULD turn and be yes men.

    Most of us though, will not turn on our oath, our country, our towns, our families and the Constitution.

    One last point.. Yes, the government does have plans and does train for just these kind of scenarios… BUT what this article forgot to mention, is that the manpower they will utilize is not just from the ‘yes men’ from agencies and military units… but also from private ‘security’ firms.. and possibly even the UN depending..

    There are enough deadbeats out there that you pay them enough money and give them a taste of power, they will do whatever you want them to do.. and the sad part is that many of those types are the ones that could never get accepted in real law enforcement and active military…. which makes them most probably even more of a dangerous threat.

    1. Jake:
      Myself and Mr. Rawles have discussed all these issues and more 1 day ago. I invite you to re read Mr. Rawles’ essay and ALL of the comments. Thanx.

  46. I applaud your courage and leadership; I hope you will stay on the job until the conflict is resolved. Ron Paul was the nation’s last chance to return to the Constitution through the political process. Donald Trump, non-globalist that he is, has bought us some time, but he is no constitutionalist and the relentless opposition that he faces is a measure of the scale and pervasiveness of the globalist conspiracy.
    The organizations seeking the overthrow of the United States are not as naive as the noisy minions they send to make trouble for the rest of us. They intend genocide, and they are familiar with the four steps to getting there: (1)vilification, (2)legal persecution, (3)disarmament, (4)genocide. This is why neither we nor any other population should ever submit to disarmament. Disarmament has no other goal nor outcome than genocide. You can only underestimate the left’s willingness to spread death and destruction, and the long-term plans of their leadership.
    They can make war when and where it pleases them, and can soften us up with a nuclear war on our own soil if our ‘stubbornness’ calls for that. They have near total legal control of the food production and distribution, and will almost certainly use food as a weapon. They need not search your property for weapons if you have to go to the camps to get food. The “door-kickers” will stay on the job as long as their employer is their only source of food, whether they are the thousands of Americans who through being deceived have sold their souls to the dark side, or the millions of foreign troops brought in to “keep the peace.” You will not get through this without divine help. Of course, the United States of America was not set up in the first place without divine help. It will be necessary to go back to the Source.
    The major metropolitan centers can be surrounded and detained as a whole, while in the small towns there will be no shortage of “patriots” willing to come forward and point out which of their neighbors have food, which have guns, which are critical of the government, etc. 3% may be enough to launch a revolution, but in our society traitors and snitches will outnumber them three to one. Who is going to step up and teach the majority how to think like Americans once the road blocks are set up?
    Congressmen, judges, and other public officials are already convinced of the foolishness of gun control, and they are already nervous about standing with the liberals on many issues, but they are more afraid of their masters: they are told how to vote, and seeing a blood-bath coming for which they will be held responsible is less intimidating than what they have already been threatened with if they don’t do as they are told. Besides, they have been promised immunity from prosecution for their cooperation–just look at the Clintons for an example of how effective that immunity is.
    You are on the right side. Your cause is just. America is a covenant land, and the Constitution is the contract of that covenant. To the extent we have broken, or allowed to be broken, that covenant we will feel the consequences. Because of the covenant, and the fact that some have been faithful to it, a cleansing is coming. It will not be easy. May our preparations, both spiritual and temporal, be up to the challenge.

  48. Catching up on my reading. Great article.

    A few thoughts:

    There are, on the first day of rifle season for deer in Michigan alone, 1,000,000, men, women, and responsible children, armed with high powered, scoped rifles. That is one million trained snipers in Michigan alone. I pity the Blue Hats that show up thinking they are going to reign us in. OOPS!

    The only country who will ever use and EMP weapon on the citizens of These united States will be the government of The United States. Will it be Trump? Not likely. But. then again, how hard is it for the proverbial Deep State to assassinate a sitting president? They’ve done it before. And that’s not conspiracy theory, that’s conspiracy FACT.

    The war on alcohol was exactly like the war on drugs is today. The government created instant criminals. The government profited by their immoral war on American citizens. Big Crime profited by their association and partnership with politicians. Politicians profited by their partnership with Big Crime. It happened then, it is happening today. Nothing to see here, move along, move along.

    There is so much more to say, no need to beat this dead horse any longer.

    We are a people at war with our own government. The war is inevitable. The world will tremble at the violence of it. Bring it.

  49. Most libtards do not have any idea of the severe unintended consequences that their proposed feel good agenda will have on them and America. S/FI

  50. This article is a nice thought but other than numbers 1 and 7 under Resistance everything else is fantasy. Yes, many gun owners will hide their contraband guns meaning they can’t fire them or train on them so they are as good as confiscated and yes, they may call in some false leads but no one is going to start attacking or assassinating political leaders or Law Enforcement over a semi-auto gun ban bill no matter how restrictive.
    Every state that has passed outrageous and continually more restrictive laws is met with non-compliance in registration at best and usually comments about “ok they can limit my magazine capacity to less than a revolver, they can make me beg for a license to own the gun, they can make me store it locked up and unloaded, they can come and take it from me based on a tip from a neighbor with no due process, and they can make me jump through other hoops like passing a background check to buy ammo and pay a special “victim tax” on each round but ONE MORE THING and its going to be 1776 all over again”! Until one more thing comes out and they bend over and take it.
    I wish this wasn’t the case but everyone reading this in their heart knows its true or we wouldn’t be where we are today with gun control acts like 1934, 1968, and 1986 (but, but, but Reagan! Yeah he sold gun owners out) and again that doesn’t account for state laws and the 1994 AWB that was universally accepted and complied with and could have been renewed forever without people doing much more than complaining on the internet.

    Your math on law enforcement’s limited numbers assumes they aren’t enlarged to go after gun owners and assumes they must get everyone in the first year, think of what they can do in 10 years or 20! Everyone wants to say “come and take it” until SWAT shows up to do just that and a flashbang drops in their room while they are sleeping, their bank accounts are seized and their children are taken by child protective services. After all that how much fight does anyone have when the option to get all that back is to just turn in your AR?

    1. “how much fight does anyone have when the option to get all that back is to just turn in your AR?”

      do you really think they’re just going to turn back the clock when you turn in your rifle?

      when you give a man nothing more to lose, he WILL come out fighting. Carl Drega had nothing left to lose, and he was just one guy. spread that out over the whole country, all at once, the moment they sign something like that into law. it won’t go 20 years, 10 years or even 6 months. when you see that happening to your friends and know you could be next, we FIGHT. we don’t have to be all that organized. starfish vs spider, starfish always wins. or, to use the movie “a bug’s life”

      Hopper: You let one ant stand up to us, then they all might stand up! Those puny little ants outnumber us a hundred to one and if they ever figure that out there goes our way of life! It’s not about food, it’s about keeping those ants in line. That’s why we’re going back! Does anybody else wanna stay?

  51. The scenario that would lead to the theoretical situation discussed will be far more complicated and insidious than it would seem. Allow me to elaborate.

    If the political powers that be manage to pervert the elected government to such an extent that the legal implementation of a ban of firearms is possible, it is highly likely that they will amend other aspects of the founding documents to suit their purposes.

    We hear all the talking points regarding the dangers of guns all the time from the ‘gun grabber’ crowd but they are the simpletons of the cadre that seeks to destroy this nation. There is an evil genius group of organizers who are playing so far ahead of what is happening in the present. They have co-opted education, the media, and every other social institution in the country. There is a pervasive creep of socialism and it is not occurring as a natural reaction to some sort of political promise. It is a planned, incremental process that will continue unabated unless there comes a tipping point.

    The original article addresses the reactions to the tipping point using assumptions based on our present state of affairs. I do believe that these central planners will be moving the chess pieces long before they intentionally provoke the gun owning community.

    You can expect a total news blackout if the confiscation begins in earnest. Communications will either be monitored or stopped all together. Those who they can catch trying to coordinate any resistance will likely disappear. Food will be rationed only to areas that comply with the martial law orders. Other areas will be starved. Crops will be destroyed and any visible asset that can be used to sustain a resistance will be destroyed. This will be all out war.

    As soon as the first shot is fired upon a government operative, Martial Law will be declared. Propaganda will replace the news and it will be very carefully crafted to weaken the resistance and make those who ally with the government turn against them. They will use military equipment to monitor and conduct the raids collecting weapons. They will use human shields and the threat of violence upon innocent people to coerce compliance. This conflict would be a no holds barred situation and the military will be involved and will be coerced to do so with the threat of violence or death to loved ones. Truth will be hard to ascertain with the communications shut down and the only information being offered coming from the government.

    A second civil war was mentioned and it will make the first look like a weekend camping trip. The faction that is maneuvering behind the scenes are globalists and they will call upon other nations to help them suppress the ‘insurrection’ against the ‘will of the people’ which will be the way they will paint this violent scenario. You will not see white European troops if foreign armies come to our shores. We share too much in common with their heritage. Think Chinese and Arabian. They would have no compunction against killing us.

    The numbers within the original post are an interesting exercise of ‘what if’ but if and when this all comes to pass, things will be much more difficult to survive than they are at present. There will be a plan in effect by those who manipulate the government and it will be setup so as to guarantee the success of the takeover of the red nation. This globalist faction would destroy this nation rather than allow us to persevere. To them, it is the fact that we exist that is what they detest. We represent freedom and to a socialist dictatorial government, that is the thing that need to eliminate so they can tell people when they are free instead of a fundamental group of laws and rights recorded 240 years ago.

    2. Ms Goode,
      One question for you…..
      Have ever been involved in combat or killed another human being in self defense? In response to your comment remember this only 3% of the colonist actually participated in combat with plenty of help from the inside as well as the outside and many of those combatants had never even so much as killed another human. You see the American spirit should never be ignored and the willingness to take another’s life to defend ones God given rights will rarely if at all be hesitant. When you freedom and liberty is on the line the old sage will pop into many minds…I’d rather die standing free than to live in tranny on my knees. As many of us veterans were taught, “you kill him, because I’ll damned guarantee you he’s going to kill you. As Sun Tzu implied never underestimate your enemy.

  52. I am more than a little confused by the number of folks with defeatist attitudes on here or maybe they are Globailst trolls/bots sent to sow discord or they could be real honest bootlicking Communist with transgender social democratic tendencies. They seem to be on just about every political, hunting , shooting, fishing out door forum/blog. The whole idea of America is about preserving despite all the odds being stacked against us not only is it the stuff of legend it is a huge part of American exceptionalism all other talk is cowardice and or treason, IMHO! S/FI

    1. One of the gun-haters new strategies is spending more and more time on the pro-gun sites. Initially these “spies” would simply camp out on the sites, reading and learning what they could use against us. One of the newer strategies they employ, is they pretend to be a demoralized gun owner. They come on our sites and post defeatist attitudes and claim that none of the new ideas will work, and that we might as well all give up our sport.
      In fact, if you spend enough time on enough leftwing websites, or watch some of their YT videos, you’ll find many of these liberals talking about pulling off these stunts on pro-gun websites.
      In the future, if you see a person on a pro-gun website, and that person is consistently posting either anti-gun rants, or is coming across as a naysayer against every single pro-gun initiative, you’ve probably uncovered a troll who is an anti. At that point, it’s best to quietly report the troll to the site moderator, and in the meantime ignore him, and encourage some of your most trusted site teammates to do likewise.

      1. The internet is a playground and is full of lies, misrepresentations and deception. Among all that you can find some wisdom, decent people and often friends.

        Knowing that it is fraught with negativity I look at like this.

        I will post my opinions and my ideas without a lot of concern.

        I will not arrange, engage or otherwise agree to anything with anyone who I have not personally vetted.

        It is one thing to hash over an idea of a potential scenario in the future. I look at any thing like that as being a good mental exercise.

        It is quite another to entertain doom and gloom spreading individuals. If someone is spouting c**p about giving up, they are either seriously mentally ill or a poser. Either way, it is best to give them a wide berth and if you feel you need to offer something to them, tell them to turn off the news and ignore the c**p from the left. Trust me, you will feel better in the morning. Nothing will be different but you will have had a chance to decompress.

        I would add, if a person is a real AMERICAN gun owner and is talking about giving up, I would not spend ten minutes with them because if you truly believe in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and the promise they represent, you know you have millions of other Americans who will be right there with you if and when the time comes.

  53. I think the Antis have a multi-prong strategy, that is comprised of
    (A) Culture : Make it culturally uncool to own and shoot guns.
    (B) Laws: Create so many overbearing laws that many gun owners will just throw in the towel out of frustration.
    (C) Lies: Be willing to say anything, no matter how deceptive, against gun companies, the NRA, and gun owners.
    (D) Demographics: Playing the long game while assuming that most of the gun owners of today will die off in the next 20 years, while not being replaced by younger ones.

    I seriously don’t believe the Antis are worried about the sheer quantity of guns, so much as they are what percentage of adults own at least one gun. The Antis are working from multiple directions, trying to get that percentage as low as possible. The Antis believe that if they can get that percentage super low (e.g. less than 10%) that it will be then easy to erase gun rights and even erase the Second.

    As gun owners, the number one best thing we can do is introduce guns and the shooting sports(and hunting) to our kids and grandkids. Unless we can replace ourselves, the Second will die a very slow death. And THAT is what the fascist Antis are working towards.

  54. My theory is I doubt if this confiscation would hold any water. I feel many P.O. Armed Military, would be shot on sight. I moved to the Country to evade criminals and felons. I am ready to defend my house, property, and relatives. God forbid if this turns out to be mass shooting defending my 2nd amendment.

  55. I live a few minutes from the original Remington factory. It’s safe to say that this area of the country is heavily fortified…and has been for generations….and decades upon decades. That doesn’t stop the local LE still trying to act like Dirty Harry…but if it comes to SHTF…..I highly doubt this area would go down “willingly”….

  57. EX POST FACTO!! Article 1, section, 3rd clause of the U.S. Constitution; if it is legal today it cannot be illegal yesterday!!! This is more difficult to get by than the second BUT it does reinforce the second.

  58. I wonder if it would be proposed to bring in foreign door-kickers if the casualty rates among domestic SWAT becomes too high? even bringing in canadian police and swearing them in would be controversial, both here and in the origin country. canadian culture is very close to ours – imagine door-kickers from someplace entirely foreign, like bangladesh. if casualty rates were unacceptable to them prior, they will have no idea what to do if they bring in poorly trained foreign assistance.

    obviously pure wargaming..there would be no way to know what sort of numbers we’d be talking about with this.

  59. Do you not think that Door Kickers will be mechanized and remotely controlled and/or autonomous? I believe that the justification for “… sending in the [weaponized] robots …” will be immediate given the risk and initial attrition of flesh and blood DKs but it will just lead to a different set of unintended consequences when neighbors watch the machines burn other neighbors out.

  60. Likely significant numbers of those gun owners are obese or are sick due to overeating, smoking, drinking, etc., with some even using anti-depressants. They also rely on only two weeks’ or so worth of food, ammo, fuel, and even medicine, all controlled by the rich. Even the credit they use to buy items comes from the rich. In addition, they have little or no organizational skills or training to deal with police or the military. Finally, they mostly come from middle class backgrounds that have little or nothing when it comes to survival or sustainability.

    Given that, it won’t surprise me if the maths reveal that they turn on each other as things fall apart.

  62. Just remember, gun grabbers love guns, and even evil assault rifles – they just love them in the hands of their oppressors, not the hands of free people. How often do you see people say “I don’t understand why anyone should have a at-15, those should just be for the police and the military.” Boggles the mind how clueless many in this debate are, statements like that qualify as reasoned discourse. When I encounter these statements, I suggest they do a bit of reading on why the 2A exists and how this country came into being. Hint, it wasn’t because the decided they should have inferior arms to throw off the tyrants with. It wasn’t so they could secure their hunting rights.

  63. Could you expand a bit on your number of potential door kickers? 83K seems very optimistic considering you’re excluding almost all federal police (CBP, ICE, TSA, Marshals Service, DEA, Secret Service, etc. ~100K?) and almost all state & local police (~800K?). That’s nearly 900K additional potential door kickers. Why do you feel they wouldn’t be pressed into service?

    I’m all for less is better but is 83K that realistic?

  64. I’ve read all your books and love your blog. This particular article really appeals to me.

    I’m worried, though, about If it happens state-by-state. What if the door-kicking is very regionalized, then mostly ignored as just another backwater fracas? For instance, you always read about another landowner, rancher, or miner getting fined, harassed, jailed by the EPA and justice system. Lots of them. But it wasn’t until a Nevada ranch that lots of folks showed the will to oppose tyranny. I guess that was the oft-mentioned “tipping point.”

  65. You are delusional if you actually think the politicians would not repeal Posse Commitatus, enroll hundreds of thousands of “community activist” brownshirts and would not throw legal due process out the window in the face of an insurgency.

  66. Really nothing else to add but the words of someone who understands the scenario all too well:

    “What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?” – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

    And from our Founders:

    “A free people ought not only be armed and disciplined, but they should have sufficient arms and ammunition to maintain a status of independence from any who might attempt to abuse them, which would include their own government.” – George Washington (Jan 14, 1790, Boston Independent Chronicle)

    “Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.” – Benjamin Franklin (Nov 11, 1755, from the Pennsylvania Assembly’s reply to the Governor of Pennsylvania.)

  67. It is always amusing to hear some people fret about the U.N. sending in troops to enforce U.S. law.

    Run the same kind of numbers for a “peacekeeping” force. How much infrastructure did the U.S. have to maintain just to support 150,000 troops in Desert Storm? Who else in the world can muster that kind of force? Europe is the only international actor that has anywhere near the resources, and their combined militaries are a hopeless tangle of bureaucratic incompetence. It would take them years to ramp up some response. And they would have to support maybe 20 to 50 times as many troops to cover an areas as big as the U.S. It’s not going to happen, it can’t happen. The numbers aren’t there.

    And the will wouldn’t be there. What nation or combination of nations would insert their armies into what might be a raging inferno of a U.S. civil war? They could be certain that their troops would be the first targets. No foreign nation would send anything but moral encouragement and sympathetic feelz to the brownshirts.

    It’s more realistic to assume flyover country could cut off food, fuel, and power to the statist enclaves, primarily big blue cities. Our infrastructure is very fragile in those places. After a few days of no food and water, the biggest cities would become ungovernable, and confiscating guns would be one of the last things on the brownshirts’ minds. Their “revolution” would be over. Probably with very little violent bloodshed. The aftermath would be horrible, though, especially in big cities.

    All the gun grabbers, at least the sentient ones, know this. That scenario would be the absolute worst thing for their agenda. They’re not going to really try to push it. Gun control is just red meat they throw to their base prior to each election. They need motivated voters.

    And as a P.S., did you read that Farakkhan has reversed some of his positions about Trump? That has to scare the living daylights out of The Deep State. There’s a real chance they may lose their stranglehold on black voters. If that becomes a serious threat to their electoral hegemony, Gun Control might become a minor issue to them.

  68. Will the survival rate of door kickers completing their 864 raid be higher or lower than the 24% survival rate of airmen flying 25 missions over Germany in WWII?

  69. Bad assumptions create wrong conclusions:

    If anyone thinks that the Posse Comitatus Act is going to prevent the gun grabers (when they are in control of the executive branch) from grabing guns…. well deluded is the kindest word I can summons up for you.

    The law is what 5 justices on the Supreme court says it is. End of analysis. The above Act will be interpreted just like “shall not be infringed” is interpreted, namely to allow what is explicitly not allowed.

    Bottom line is > “The strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must”.
    -Athenian General Thucydides

    Bullies bully until they get a fist in their face. The oppression stops when the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.

  70. Your math is wrong.

    9,000,000/82,863 = 108 weapons per officer…multiplying that by 8 simply gives you 864 weapons per 8 officers. Or 864 weapons per team. Also, this doesn’t seem to include your 3 weapon per raid assumption.

    Instead, you should take 9,000,000 divide by 3 (3 per raid) = 3,000,000 total raids. Then take 82,863 divide by 8 = 10,358 total teams. Then take 3,000,000 raids divided by 10,358 teams to get 290 raids per team.

    Hope this helps.

  71. They would be foolish to go door to door in a major confiscation campaign, too dangerous. What they will do is target the known “offending” gun owners thru the IRS…..Imagine getting a notice from the IRS that you are a known gun owner and you have _ _ weeks to turn in your arsenal…..or otherwise have your wages garnished or a liens put on your property (or seized) for such and such an amount….with it being declared that the responsibility is on you to prove you have abdicated all your illegal firearms. Scary thought!

    Obama weaponized the IRS, and it could easily be done again.

  72. There’s a Solzhenitsyn quote that’s probably appropriate here…

    “And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If…if…We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…. We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”
    ― Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918-1956

  73. Of course the numbers are on the side of the good guys, but the real battle is for the hearts and minds and that’s where the bad guys have the advantage. People don’t cherish their liberty because we are so thoroughly demoralized, as explained by Yuri Bezmenov the Soviet spy.

    “Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs…We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”

    Solzhenitsyn was right, demoralization causes people to get what they deserve, good and hard. The price of liberty is not tolerating tyranny. Duh.

  74. Fascinating article… the numbers are convincing.
    However, there is one point which is a bug-a-boo of mine… ammunition manufacture is a critical, vulnerable bottleneck.

    There are only a few companies that manufacture explosives and smokeless powder, and those companies are government owned, contractor operated (GOCO).

    Personally, I believe disarming the populace would come about not through gun confiscation per se (obviously some will occur) but rather through “ammunition control.” Much less drama.

    Although many gun control advocates pin their hopes on “bullet buttons” and magazine bans, a future president would easily be able to use his “pen and a phone” to curtail civilian sales of powder and primers, or even cut it off entirely. However, its probably going to just as easy at some point to limit sales to something like 20 rounds a month. After all, that Great White Hunter, Gov. Cuomo has assured us that “yah don’t need ten boo-its to kill a dee-yah.”

    A few more quotes:

    In April, 2016, Gavin Newsom, Lt. Governor of California, and former Mayor of San Francisco, said, “It seems to me the most dangerous part of the weapon is not the weapon itself, it’s the ammunition.”
    and,
    “I think we are having a very important debate in this country about background checks on guns, but a gun has never killed anybody, unless it’s used as a blunt instrument,” Newsom said. “A gun needs a component — and that’s the ammunition — to be deadly. And the reality is today anyone can buy ammunition anywhere. There’s no licensing requirements to buy ammunition. … Any local grocery store, liquor store, can legally sell unlimited rounds of ammunition. You can get truckloads of ammunition sent to your doorstep online. There’s no background checks for the people selling them and there’s no background checks for the people purchasing them.”
    Daniel Patrick Moynihan, the late Democratic senator from New York said, “We don’t need to ban guns; we need to ban ammunition, because in 25 years, if you can’t buy ammunition, it goes bad.”

    Don’t underestimate these people… they aren’t as stupid as they look. And no doubt there are very knowledgeable people at the ATF who would advise them.

    Ammunition shortages by themselves are not likely to create acts of resistance. Its a “boil the frog slowly” strategy. Recall the 22lr shortage. It created a lot of hoarders, but not even one protester (who would you protest anyway ?) What are you going to do, nail a list of demands on the door at Walmart?

    The problem is just that… ammo gets used up or goes bad. You could stock pile thousands of rounds, and use those up in a few minutes of an intense fire-fight. Or a more likely scenario might be that you bought the ammo, and your friends didn’t… so now you need to split your 2000 rounds between 10 people. A few out there will lovingly tell about the crusty 70 year old surplus ammo they used to have that only had “a few duds and a couple hang fires”… but powder and primers do go bad eventually.

    There are plenty of youtube videos out there of people making black powder in their kitchen, but you wouldn’t want to run that through a modern gas operated action (although I did see some guy firing it through his Glock once.) From my research, I believe it would be possible to make smokeless powder on a small scale. The biggest problem of manufacture on a small scale would be consistency from batch to batch (consistency is usually achieved by blending large batches).

    I know there will be the inevitable comments, “you’d blow yourself up.” Just remember, people at the turn of the last century not only invented, and refined it, but manufactured it in great quantities. The original scientists made it with equipment not much more sophisticated than that found in a high school chemistry lab. Ironically, smokeless powder (single base) is probably actually safer to make than black powder.

    A group in Montana tried to get a law passed that would have set up a powder factory in state, but it apparently went no where. I think that is one answer… a good solution.
    Dissemination of information is another. One thing the door kickers will never be able to take is the knowledge inside your skull.

    (disclaimer: I am not advocating making smokeless powder… there is plenty of good powder legally for sale out there right now… much safer and better quality than you could improvise… and making it without a permit will get you thrown in jail)

  75. They won’t ‘disarm’ you. That’s not how it works. Nobody will kick in your door.

    Disarmament is a voluntary process … you willingly hand them in.

    That’s how it’s been done in every other Nation.

    Given time, that’s how it will be done in the US.

    It’s all psychology.

    1. This.

      They pass the law. Nobody is raided. Big-man noise from scofflaws is ignored. Meanwhile all sales in stores and online instantly cease. No videos depicting such guns are made for fear of being locked up. Bloggers do not even talk about owning them. Holders of said guns become hermits or neutered grey men. Nobody can talk about said guns for fear of being individually targeted. No range days with illegal guns. No hunting with illegal guns. In cultural terms these guns “cease to exist”. No spare parts for illegal guns. Mouthing off or even buying large of 5.56 gets your wife a special visit at home while you’re at work. Your house will be tossed. They will interrogate her and threaten to destroy her world. She will break on promises of mercy. You will be paraded in the media as a terrorist, your guns laid out for trophy shots and you’ll be sent to federal prison or at best released with time served to spend the rest of your days as a “former felon” aka second class citizen.

      All this will continue for 50 years until most of you are dead and you grandchildren are not interested in destroying their lives by digging up anything you bothered to bury.

      Stop creating a fantasy and pretending it’s a valid prediction.

      This nonsense will bury you. You may as well threaten the creeping mold in your shower that “one day there will be a great battle against the mold” in the hope that it comes to its senses and chooses to stop growing.

      You either take the offensive against the mold or scream impotently at it as it claims one tile after the next.

  76. To some extent, I agree with Bogbeagle. Of course, the threats of consequence for not ‘voluntarily’ surrendering your weapons will be significant. My reason for agreeing with Bb is that the first known armed confiscation from a residence in this scenario is likely to precipitate CW2.

  77. ….. you willingly hand them in. Hahaha, oh Lord that is a good one, it is said a hearty laugh is good for the soul, thank you. I’ll sleep like a baby tonight.

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