I have always had an active interest in survival. I have always tried to look at the big picture without bias. Previously, I prepared for vague, generalized threats. Within the last year, however, the world situation has dramatically changed – threats have become more specific, easily identifiable, significant, and realistic. In other words, the present world situation makes prepping more meaningful, practical, and necessary than ever before. We need to cast off our “Normality Bias” complacency of “everything is going to be okay, just like it’s always been” and take measured actions to prepare for what is probably coming. I’m trying to be realistic and not “cry wolf.”
Based on what I have read and learned from current events, the world situation is becoming increasingly unstable and uncertain. I see the threats coming from: a) military conflicts, b) economic (the bond market, derivatives, inflation & oil), c) countries carrying unsustainable national debt, d) immigration, e) AI, f) politically (1. domestically: midterms, with possible civil disruption by the losers, and 2. globally: Mid East, Russia, Ukraine, and China), g) religious and culturally inspired civil unrest, h) cyberattacks on utilities from within and without, i) sleeper cells. The most significant threat, in my opinion, is economic because of its far-reaching consequences.
I foresee many serious problems facing our country and our families by the end of the year, any one of which, or more than one, could directly and negatively impact us. Domestically, our country has never before been so divided and polarized. No one is willing to compromise. Europe is beginning to prepare for an uncertain future, also. All of Europe is now experiencing a serious fuel crunch and economic uncertainty. Britan recently advised its citizens to “stock up” on food and other essentials while Lithuania is informing their citizens to be ready to evacuate.
We will most likely not have World War III; it is more likely there will be regional conflicts with world-wide economic consequences. We probably will not be fighting other countries; we will be fighting economics – food cost inflation, food shortages, fuel prices, and our national debt. We will be not fighting a cold war. We will be fighting an out-of-control world-wide economic war – one like we have never fought before. Whether the price increase threats are real, or imagined by suppliers as a justification to squeeze out more profit – the effect on consumer prices is the same. Fuel for transportation is another major concern with wide ranging consequences. The fuel situation could be partially be mitigated by the increased availability of US and South American crude, but the refineries will have to be operating at full or near full capacity to provide the needed finished products. The results of our mid-term elections will also effect the direction of our economy and our domestic tranquility.
In my opinion, there is a very high probability we will be facing rapidly escalating prices, supply chain and distribution difficulties, and product shortages by the end of the year and perhaps well into the new year. Diesel fuel prices and farm food production shortages will be trickling down to our food supply. As the supply decreases, prices rise causing inflation. As prices increase, consumer use declines. Inflation means the reduced purchasing power of our dollars – our dollars buy fewer products or the same products cost more dollars. Our lifestyle will be changing.
And if the economy declines even further, for example into extreme inflation, shortages, or outages, especially food, rationing becomes likely. Panic buying, theft, and civil disorder will likely ensue.
We should be planning for a rough new year – lasting at least 3 to 6 months, perhaps longer. Global instability will be felt throughout the economy. Emergencies and disruptions will become commonplace. And, we cannot rely on the government to solve these problems for us. I doubt there will be an outright global economic collapse; just crippling runaway inflation, especially for food. If widespread inflation does not stop, then global economic collapse and/or outright war could become very real possibilities.
It’s anyone’s guess how long it will take to regain our economic and cultural stability and what they will look like.
Purchasing as soon as possible will beat price increases brought about by inflation and allow us to stock up with our essentials. Prices will never be lower. The whole point of preparedness is to get the supplies you need in place (or you can still get them at a reasonable cost) before everyone else realizes there just might be a problem, avoiding shortages and panic buying.