Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at Tariff Arbitrage in Tangibles. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)
Precious Metals:
Despite the best efforts of the short-sellers, the precious metals bull market now seems to have been confirmed. The rise in gold now appears unstoppable. Meanwhile, the Silver Shorts are still pulling the weekly shenanigans, almost every Friday. But given the chronic physical silver shortage caused by the mining deficit, the shorts cannot keep up their suppression of the silver market much longer. My advice: Hold on tight to your physical silver, and continue to buy more, on any dip days. And, ratio trading out of gold (into silver) whenever the ratio is in the 100-to-1 range still makes perfect sense. Ratio trading out of gold and into some platinum would also be wise, especially if there is a specific threat of a regional war, or a world war. If India and Pakistan transition to full-scale war, or China invades Taiwan, or Russia invades Poland or the Baltic States, then I expect the price of platinum to nearly triple. – JWR
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Facing Facts: Silver Demand in Solar Photovoltaics to Leapfrog in the Next Five Years. (LBMA)
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Goldman Sachs Reiterates “Structurally Bullish” View on Gold, Silver Set to Play Second Fiddle.
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Missourians could soon pay with gold & silver after lawmakers approve odd bill.
Economy & Finance:
Deloitte Releases 2025 Financial Services Industry Predictions Report.
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Morningstar: May 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: Eye of the Hurricane.
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Contrarian Outlook: This 11% Dividend is Backed by the Steadiest NAV We’ll Ever See.
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At Zero Hedge: The Import Armageddon Narrative Looks Overblown.
Commodities:
At OilPrice News: EIA Shows US Crude Oil Inventories Continue To Slide.
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Falling Commodity Prices Could Mute Inflation Risks from Trade Tensions.
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J.P. Morgan: Metals meltdown? The outlook for aluminum, steel and copper prices.
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Podcast: The Stage is Set for Commodities to Shine.
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What Is the Cheapest Day To Get Gas?
Inflation/Deflation Watch:
China risks a spiral into deeper deflation as it diverts U.S.-bound exports to domestic market.
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Bloomberg: Blackouts, 162% Inflation Remind Venezuelans of Worst of Crisis. JWR’s Comment: Doctrinaire socialists never learn…
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Fed warns of stagflation while Trump signals a hard line in China talks.
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A view from Europe: Inflation Tracker – April 2025 | Unsurprisingly, inflation expectations are rising again.
Forex & Cryptos:
At Currency Thoughts: Federal Reserve Tops a List of Many Central Banks Deciding Interest Rate Levels.
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StreetCrypto: Rarible co-founder says NFT bubble is over, names two major narratives.
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Stripe rolls out stablecoin accounts in over 100 countries.
Tangibles Investing:
The advent of the Trump 2.0 Tariffs has opened up a potentially lucrative opportunity: Pre-Tariff and Post-Tariff Tangibles Arbitrage. Here is what I’m suggesting: Identify compact and high-demand imported consumer items, and locate suppliers that still have case lots of them available at pre-tariff prices. So… Stack a few cases a wait a few months. Then re-sell them piecemeal at 70% to 90% of the post-tariff price, via outlets like eBay, Etsy, or GunBroker.com. To me, as a Gun Guy, imported full-capacity magazines come immediately to mind. Here is just one example: Case of 55 Turkish Contract 30 Round MP5 Magazines. Those are made in Turkey on HK-supplied tooling. Grabbing a case of those at $16 each is a no-brainer. Take note that this short-term arbitrage play will only work well for products with no domestic equivalent available at a competitive price.
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Are Extended Warranties Ever Worth It?
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!