Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the recent spike in propane prices (See the Commodities section.)
Precious Metals:
The Next Phase Of Gold’s Bull Market Has Just Begun. JWR’s Comments: 2024 was a great year for gold investors. Spot gold posted a gain of 27.2% in US dollar terms, 37.1% in Swiss Franc (CHF) terms, and 35.6% in terms of Euros. Given the Federal Reserve’s ongoing expansion of the money supply, it is realistic to expect a 12% or more gain in the spot price of gold (in Dollar terms), in calendar year 2025.
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Chinese Gold Demand Showed Seasonal Strength in December.
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Silver demand spikes due to solid-state battery tech advancements.
Economy & Finance:
The 10-year Treasury yield is nearing 5% again. Why stock-market investors are freaking out.
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Bank of America Braces for Massive Bond Losses as Yields Soar. An excerpt from the article’s opening lines:
“A sharp rise in rates since the end of the third quarter widened losses on bank securities portfolio and could become an investor issue again when banks start reporting their fourth-quarter results in the next week.
Bank of America has the largest unrealized losses in the banking industry and could be a focus of investor attention.
Barron’s estimates that Bank of America’s paper losses on a portfolio of $568 billion of bonds, mostly U.S. agency mortgage securities, could widen to $111 billion or more, compared with $86 billion at the end of September.
Industrywide, total unrealized losses could top $500 billion, up from $364 billion at the end of the third quarter. These losses involve all banks insured by the FDIC. The total potential losses would still be narrower than the nearly $700 billion at banks at the end of the third quarter of 2022.”
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The BBC reported: Madoff fraud victims get $4.3 billion as fund completes payouts.
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Macy’s And Kohl’s Announce Closures Of 93 Stores In Total.
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Reader H.L. suggested this report at Zero Hedge: L.A. County Inferno Expected To Top $250 Billion In Losses.
Commodities:
Tina B. sent us this: The dreaded propane price spike. The article begins:
“For one month, crude and propane prices have been surging. Since Dec. 19, 2024, Mont Belvieu ETR propane is up 20.125 cents, a 26 percent gain. Conway is up 23.75 cents, 32 percent, and that is with a 2-cent pullback on Jan. 16. The chart below provides a good visual of what a price spike looks like. Propane prices are up again as we write on Friday, Jan. 17.”
JWR’s Comment: We’ve now had multiple polar vortex events, in recent weeks. I expect to see propane and home heating oil to both be higher, in the first quarter of 2025.
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Reported early in the month: Cattle Futures Hit New Record High As Polar Blast Set To Hit Nation’s Beef Supply.
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Wine sales drying up as Americans turn elsewhere.
Inflation/Deflation Watch:
Consumer Prices Soared Over 21% Under Biden… And Real Wages Fell.
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Inflation Rises to 2.9%, Highest Since July.
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Under Biden, Producer Prices Rose At Triple The Rate They Did Under Trump.
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The Average US Household Budget In One Chart.
Forex & Cryptos:
Australian Dollar Remains Weak As US Dollar Strengthens On Trade War Threats.
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Bitcoin analyst who nailed price in 2023 and 2024 predicts $175,000 in 2025.
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EU crypto regulation MiCA comes fully into force.
Tangibles Investing:
Wall Street Thinks U.S. Homes are too Expensive.
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Homes Are Piling Up on the Market in Florida—There Are Two Big Reasons Why.
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Over at Wolf Richter’s Wolf Street: “Locked-in” Homeowners Nevertheless Pay Off Below-4% Mortgages: their Share of All Mortgages Outstanding Drops to 55%, Lowest since Q1 2021.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!