There is a very old poem, with many variations about for the want of a nail. Basically, the poem goes like this:
“For the want of a nail the shoe was lost
For the want of a shoe the horse was lost
For the want of the horse the rider was lost
For the want of the rider the battle was lost
For the want of the battle the kingdom was lost
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.”
On occasion, I get to teach disaster logistics and I use this poem to get students to understand the ramifications of not having a robust logistics system. Logistics plays a tremendous part in our society and in every industrial sector. Logistics will also play a major part in a post-TEOTWAWKI world.
In the most simplistic analysis, our world, which is the most technologically advanced society in history, was taken down by a very low-tech, microscopic virus that we can not see, taste, or smell. The virus, coupled with government actions to slow the spread, have disrupted supply chains with ramifications to the level that have never been experienced by so many humans. For example, if a plant that might have processed a simple component used in numerous types of plastics that were then used in thousands of products closed, it would have massive ripple effects in numerous sectors of the economy as well as many countries. For as technologically advanced as our world has become, we have not mitigated the risks out of our very fragile, interconnected supply chains. In fact we have done quite the opposite, as we have become more and more technologically advanced we actually created more vulnerability.
The lessons of the past few years should be a very clear lesson to all of us about what logistics will be like in a post-TEOTWAWKI world. When I say TEOTWAWKI, I use that for events like an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), a coronal mass ejection (CME), or another world war.
As preppers, off-griders, or homesteaders we do a very good job at covering the basics like food, water, medical and arms. There is however, one very glaring fatal flaw I see in many, if not most, preppers’ physical preparations and that is not thinking granular enough when it comes to logistics. That is we do not look in depth enough to figure out what our horseshoe nails are. For example, we might have an AR-15 and a few rounds of ammo but what happens when a part in our AR-15 breaks? Are we relying upon a false sense of hope that this situation won’t happen to us? This was just one example but pick several other pieces of your prepper equipment and ask yourself what happens if it breaks or you run out of the needed supplies to keep it running.
I’m sure there are many people reading this that are saying “no problem, I have an extra firing pin and a cam bolt retaining pin.” These two items should be on hand as they are typical parts that wear out or get lost. But what about something like gas rings or an extra buttstock? Many of us have generators but how many of us have extra oil, filters, spark plugs and fuel line? Do you have a spark plug gap gauge, a spark plug tester? Do you even have the knowledge to diagnosis and change a spark plug? Thinking granularly is very important so we do not die because of something so simple as a “Horseshoe nail”. With that said, we need to think about equipment that does not require a lot of parts (horseshoe nails) to keep it up and running.
I have had conversations with a very good prepper friend who has a tendency to always suggest a technological fix or addition to one of my projects. My budget and my goals for survival are centered around low-tech and inexpensive. Believe it or not, the two are not always the same. That is low tech isn’t always inexpensive. My friend will always suggest that I add this gadget or that gadget into a project. My answer is always, “how will I keep it going without electric or what happens when it fails? That is, how can I make sure I have the “horseshoe nails” for this project to make sure that it stays up and running when the world falls apart? The reason I look at low tech isn’t due to low price but rather for the sake of simplicity. In some cases low tech is low cost but not always. For example, blacksmithing is low tech but buying an anvil and the various blacksmithing tools is not cheap. The old saying of “Keep it simple” seems to be forgotten by many a prepper.
I am no mechanic by any stretch of the imagination. But in the past, I did work on my vehicles. Like many people my age, working on vehicles used to be “fun”. Now working on vehicles is like the games of mouse trap, operation and twister combined with a very sinister bent that leaves you bleeding and bruised. But have you ever looked at or worked on an old Ford Model T or a Willy’s Jeep? They are very simplistic. No bells or whistles, it is so simple it has less points of failure and if it were to break it is easier to diagnose and repair. In an age of engineered obsolescence, it is extremely important to choose equipment that is simple to repair and/or was manufactured in an era where things were designed and built to last not fail after 100 hours of use.
Two of my primary objectives when prepping is to limit my need for electricity and gasoline. That isn’t to say that I don’t have any preps that require electricity or gasoline. But why limit these?
I hear of many preppers who want to install whole-house generators. Whole house generators will normally require a larger kilowatt output than many of the commonly available portable generators. But in the apocalypse why would anyone need to run their whole house? For the cost of a whole house generator including transfer switch and installation, one could purchase two smaller portable generators (one primary and one backup), multiple spare parts and a plethora of fuel. The trade-off is reducing one’s electricity needs. To do this, take inventory of what you absolutely need to run with electricity. For example, I plan on running my freezer until the food can be used or otherwise preserved. I also plan on using our generator to run our well pump but not continuously. Once a day we will run the well pump to fill up our containers.
When we are sure that the incident is truly going to be a long-term grid down event versus a short-term outage we will pull the pump out of the well and use a well baler. We are looking at solar-powered pumps or old-school pitcher pumps as well. But the point is, we will use something that does not require power from a generator and gasoline long term. Why? Think about all the parts, oil, and gas that are needed just to run the generator. Each part is what is called a “point of failure”. If the spark plug fails, it is an easy fix if you have one on hand. But what if it is a carburetor? I’m guilty of not having a spare carburetor on hand. To me, at some point it was just easier to have an extra generator than the spare parts to totally rebuild a generator.
One of the lessons I learned in the Gulf War was the value of junk. We had a Hummer that hit a mine and the mechanics put it on a tow truck and hauled it around using parts from it when needed. Instead of buying one big whole house generator you could buy 2 smaller portable generators. If you buy 2 of the exact same model and one fails and you cannot repair it due to lack of parts the generator becomes salvageable for parts. If you bought 2 different makes/models there would be a good chance there would be no parts compatibility. Now think of the parts in a pitcher pump. The pitcher pump has a lot fewer parts and very few moving parts. It also does not require fuel and oil to keep it going. If the pump is an older model it uses a simple leather flap that can be made. The lower-tech option is less likely to fail and if it does, the repair is also less complex. Hence there is less of a logistical requirement for the pitch pump versus a generator to provide your water needs.
Our primary, long-term electric power will come from solar. We have several smaller solar panel systems like a Goal Zero and a few of the Harbor Freight solar systems for example. One facet of our plan is to use these systems for running items that are 12 volt DC versus 120 volt AC. That way we do not waste power by using an inverter. Removing the inverter from the system also moves a point of failure. Another part of the plan is to charge larger 12 volt batteries that can then be used in whatever way is needed whether that is DC or AC, if needed. Our plan includes being able to recharge our nickel metal hydride (NiMH) and Lithium batteries. With that said, we have tried to limit devices to only using AA or AAA batteries. Recently we have expanded our rechargeable battery inventory to include rechargeable lithium CR2032 batteries since many items are now using them. With this plan, even if our main 12-volt batteries fail we can still direct charge the smaller batteries off of the solar. By keeping our electrical needs low we are able to have a system that has less points of failure and some redundancy. The 12-volt batteries are simply a way to store extra energy.
As far as gasoline, I have thought about purchasing a 200 gallon tank to store gasoline in. However, the risk manager in me always says the risks isn’t worth the reward. My concerns were verified when we had a small leak in our diesel fuel tank. We probably lost about 20 gallons but due to the fact that diesel is safer due to a relatively high flashpoint versus gasoline we didn’t have to deal with the added danger of an explosive gas/air mixture that we would have had to face with a spill of 20 gallons of gasoline. We do store a good amount of gasoline however this is done with many small gas cans versus one single large tank. With this method we reduce the potential for a catastrophic loss of all our gasoline due to one leaking container.
My main reason for storing gasoline is for use in the generators. If needed however I can also use my Briggs & Stratton kick-start engine and other small engines to power things like a corn sheller, grain grinder, or a buzz saw. Based on years of storing gas, I have found that I can use ethanol-free gas treated with Pri-G that has been stored for 2 years without any problem. I buy our ethanol-free gas when the winter blends of gas come out in September at least around here. I have not been able to confirm or dismiss whether or not ethanol-free gas changes blends for the winter like other gasoline. So I assume that it does and wait until September when the winter blend returns. Why do I want the winter blend? The winter blend of gasoline has more butane to help ignite the gas in the colder weather. As gasoline ages, one of the things that happens is that the butane off-gases.
The most sophisticated piece of equipment that we have for our post-TEOTWAWKI life is our diesel tractor. We can safely store a large amount of diesel right on the homestead. When I bought the tractor new, my specifications were that I wanted that largest tractor we could get without all the clean emissions parts on it. These parts are added points of failure and I also didn’t need to use diesel emission fluid (DEF) thus I did not have to worry about storing and rotating it. I have always been fond of the idea of “when life throws lemons at you, make lemonade”. Due to the lower horsepower of the tractor, it limited me in some ways as to the implements I can run off of the Power take off (PTO). Running a haybine to cut hay is out of the question. So I got a sickle bar mower. I stayed with the “keep it simple” saying we also got a ground dive hay Tedder and hay rake as well. My thought process is that if diesel production, even rudimentary, does not recover within a few years of TEOTWAWKI we can use oxen or horses to pull the ground drive equipment. The sickle bar mower can be retrofitted to be ground drive too.
Items used in the general repair or making of equipment around the homestead are other “horseshoe nails”. This haying season we had a mishap with our hay rake and several teeth became casualties. I had spare rake teeth but this mishap showed me that I didn’t have enough. This past haying season seemed more like repair season. But with every failure there was a lesson about a horseshoe nail. I didn’t have the right size bolts, washers, nuts and I didn’t have a spare pitman arm.
When the supply chains are not just disrupted, but rather gone, we will pretty much be stuck with what we have on hand. Other options of procurement of needed parts or supplies have risk. Bartering tips people off to have you. For example, if you are looking to trade for a spark plug for a generator people will know you have a generator and that you have fuel. You will also be offering up something for trade too. Trying to scavenge For the parts could get you pegged as a trespasser or thief.
We do a great job stocking basics like food, water and medical but we need to consider that needs will come up in post-TEOTWAWKI that we did not plan for. In many cases our option will be to hobble together what we need. Bubble gum and baling twine may work but would it not be nice to have prepared with an assortment of hardware? When it comes down to it, a hardware store is really full of potential horseshoe nails. I often think a good plot for a Twilight Zone episode would have been a prepper with a bunker full of supplies and equipment who ends up having all his preps become useless due to forgetting one simple item.
So take inventory of the equipment you have for your survival during a prolonged grid scenario. What are the “horseshoe nails” needed to keep that piece of equipment operating? If that piece of equipment has a catastrophic failure what is the backup?