Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at some more indicators of mass inflation ahead. (See the  section.)

Precious Metals:

First up, from Jim Curry: Gold Update – U.S. Stocks Bracing for Correction.

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Gold and silver prices react to this week’s events in some unexpected ways

Economy & Finance:

A bond market alert: For The First Time Ever, Real US Investment Grade Yields Turn Negative. JWR Adds: For those who aren’t familiar with the bond market, read this primer: Why Bond Prices and Yields Move in Opposite Directions

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At Seeking Alpha: BlackRock sees ‘new nominal’ accelerating as inflation expectations hit 26-month highs

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“A Huge Reversal” – Louis Gave Warns “Inflation Will Come Back With A Vengeance”. Here is a snippet from the interview:

“When I look at markets, there are three key prices in the world economy: Ten year Treasury yields, oil, and the Dollar. One year ago, yields were going down, oil was going down, and the Dollar was going up. Today, Treasury yields are going up, oil is going up, and the Dollar is going down. This is a huge reversal. When I see a market where interest rates are rising and the currency is falling, alarm bells go off.

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And at Wolf Street: Stunning Brick & Mortar Meltdown, Manhattan Style: The Collapse of Retail Rents Before & Now During the Pandemic

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Another from Wolf: Massive Inflation in Shipping Costs. And the Reasons

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Five Reasons Why Runaway Inflation Is Imminent According To Morgan Stanley

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And one more word of warning: Fed-Driven Bubble Destined To End Badly. JWR’s Comment:  So, with some major inflation approaching, what changes to your portfolio should you be considering? See the Economy & Finance section.

Commodities:

Commodity prices are surging

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OilPrice News reports: OPEC Predicts A Rebound In U.S. Shale

Forex & Cryptos:

Biden Won’t Say It Out Loud, but He Might Want a Weak U.S. Dollar

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Struggling Pound Sterling Forecast to Gain in 2021

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Over at Lew Rockwell’s site, there is this from Claudio Grass: “Italia Cashless”

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Bitcoin Struggles Below $38K, Why BTC Could Dive To $32K

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Guggenheim CIO: ‘Speculative frenzy’ to die down, but $400k target still on

Tangibles Investing:

At Forbes: Capitol Riot Could Accelerate Gun Sales Over Fears Of Civil Unrest And Looming Gun Control

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Reader C.B. was the first of several folks to mention this headline: Bill Gates becomes top US farmland owner. JWR’s Comment: It is not surprising to hear that a multi-billionaire is diversifying into tangibles, as our economy is clearly about to flip back into an inflationary phase.  The smart money is quietly telling us: Buy farm and ranch land!

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When Will the Nation’s Ammo Shortage End?

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A brief video from God, Family and Guns: Ammo Shortage Update : Top 5 Ways To Find Ammo In 2021

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




60 Comments

    1. I do not understand someone like this doctor. She is wrong, it is obvious she is wrong, so why would she expose her ignorance and foolishness? Just a few days ago the U.S. passed the 400,000 deaths from covid, didn’t Dr. Gold get the news? Then there are the millions who suffer permanent lung damage and other side effects from getting covid. Didn’t the doctor hear about this? I have no problem with anyone who chooses not to get the vaccine, make your choice and good luck. But for a doctor to make videos like this is disgraceful.

      1. The death statistics in the U.S. are a complete fraud. Overall the number of deaths has not gone up. Magically since Covid, heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and flu deaths have went way down. Hospitals are getting paid to put down Covid 19 on the death certificates. People are dying with Covid not from Covid. But we don’t even know that because the PCR test isn’t even accurate.

        1. In those areas where Covid is most active the hospital ICU beds are full and the ambulance people are being told to decide who is worth saving. Seems pretty serious to me! LA has just revised their local policies allowing crematoriums to run more hours to take care of all the bodies. I Don’t know if that sounds serious to you or not but it does to me! Maybe, just a thought here, you are buying into some misinformation. Maybe there are some actual people dying from covid and you are listening to the wrong people. The U.S. just passed 400,000 deaths from covid!!! Sounds like a big deal, don’t you think?

          1. The U.S. DID NOT loose 400,000 people from Covid. The statistics of hospitals lying, and attributing Covid deaths has been blown wide open. The information is everywhere if you care to look. The PCR test isn’t even accurate. I could put personally put you in touch with several doctors and nurses who would love to open your eyes to the truth. How is it obvious she is wrong?? How many times does the main stream media have to get caught lying to us before you stop believing them?? How do you know the commies in California are telling you the truth about anything?? Maybe you are the one buying into misinformation . That doctor did a really good job of laying out sources and facts. Google John Hopkins study exposes Covid death hoax.

          1. Oh Ya, since you are citing main stream media, here is what New York Times staff member John Swinton had to say in 1953 “there is no such thing in America as an independent press, you know it, and I know it. The business of the journalist is to destroy truth, to lie outright, to pervert, to vilify, to fawn at the feet of mammon, and to sell his country and his race for his daily bread, you know it and I know it, what folly is this toasting an independent press, we are tools and vassals for rich men behind the scenes, we are the jumping jacks, they pull the strings and we dance. Our talents, our possibilities and our lives are all the property of other men, we are intellectual prostitutes”. End Quote. Our hospital here in northwest Montana laid off a bunch of staff. If you look you can find fake video footage and crisis actors from numerous timelines since this started, trying to make this appear worse than it is. These same people tried to tell us that a jumbo jet hit the pentagon, yet there is zero photographic evidence showing the massive titanium and inconel jet engines, or the 482,000 lbs of aluminum, I’m sure it all just disappeared into thin air when the plane hit right?? Yet you think these same people aren’t lying to us 20 years later??? They are trying to use this to lock us down into a police state, how much more obvious does it really have to get?? Don’t worry though, I’m sure you can have that vaccine real soon and then you will be just fine.

      2. OneGuy tell everyone here where to find non photoshopped pics of the massive pile of almost 250 tons of metal that should have been up against the walls of the pentagon. It was the crime of the century right??? Surely when a crime occurs of this scale the authorities must take picture so preserve the evidence, just like at any other crime??? Titanium and inconel don’t melt until around 6000 degrees, the jet fuel obviously isn’t hot enough to melt the engine….where did these 8ft diameter pieces of metal disappear to?? Where did the 400,000 plus pounds of aluminum go??? Educate me. Where are the pictures.

          1. The opinion about me from the eyes of the blind means little….put your money where your mouth is….where are the pics of the jumbo jet wreckage. Anyone who believes the totality of the official 9-11 story is on the foolish side. Don’t worry though…you will have that vaccine in your body soon enough.

          2. What do you think hit the Pentagon, a piper cub? Witnesses saw the plane hit it. More than one video show the plane as it passed over the highway just seconds before the crash. There is nothing I could show you that would change your mind. Think what you like.

        1. There were pictures of the Pentagon shortly after the “incident” showing a ~12 foot diameter hole in the side. It was covered with tarps shortly after. The pictures were actually shown on TV.
          All of them were scrubbed. They even confiscated security footage from nearby businesses.

          1. Exactly. Whatever did the damage (most likely a missile) was not a jumbo jet. No pictures of the massive wings, no pictures of the fuselage and no pictures of the 8ft diameter engines made from metals that are some of the toughest known to man. They would have us believe all of that metal just disappeared. Not a single picture of all that wreckage. And why would they confiscate the footage, what were they trying to hide by not showing it? Dr Judy Woods made an incredible documentary that may or may not still be on You Tube called “Where did the Towers Go”. The remaining rubble on the ground from the towers collapse was not congruent with how large they were. So many holes in just the physics of the official story.

      3. Big Mike. You Tube has removed the offending video, stating that it violated their “terms of service”. I watched the video last night and found her presentation to be very professional and thought provoking. Welcome to 1984.

  1. There are calibers starting to run out as in no stores have them and the online sales have dried up. You probably won’t see them for a couple of years again at least in American brands. It appears Wolf and others are still making 6.5 Grendel and x39s etc.
    Quality self defense handgun ammo is hard to find or out of reach for many in cost so there is a lot of ball ammo being carried now.

  2. Land is one thing there’s not gonna be any more of made. Gates isn’t buying it to help feed the starving pygmies in some far away place outta humanity. I’ve mentioned the late Boone Pickens and his quest for water rights. They see the value in the limited resources that can be held for now.
    Thing about land is everyone wants it. You only have it as long as you can hold it. The deeds are worthless if we lose the next war. The deeds are worthless if their lawyers are big enough. If the government wants it then we all know what happens with imminent domain.

    1. Very true. It was the Missouri pacific railroad that tried to run the James family off of their land, backed up by federal troops later, that started a fateful ball rolling… A free man without land, is a free loader.

  3. Re- Morgan Stanley 5 indicators of inflation – and what about the $15 an min. Wage? What is that going to do to the price of a “Happy Meal”? Answer make it an “Unhappy Meal.”

    1. Speaking of inflation, last week I purchased another 50 lb sack of pinto beans at our local restaurant supply for $35, up from the previous weeks price of $28. Biting the bullet is painful but having an empty belly is even worse and I am going to have a lot of mouths to feed, I am going to have to rethink my penchant for procrastinating. Speaking of a deal, Bags of 100 corn tortillas at Costco are under $4 . One corn tortilla has 120 calories, the other nice thing is that they do not require refrigeration. Kept in a cool place they have a shelf life of over 6 months and the only degradation I have noticed is that they get a bit dryer and are not as pliable. For me this is good news as we will have them to eat for awhile and not have to make them ourselves from the buckets of corn Masa in storage while we get things sorted out. I have decided to use what ever comes my way in the form of stimulus to stimulate the food industry with a lot more bulk purchases. Good to eat and good to barter if necessary.

    2. Increased prices and layoffs. Most likely you’ll place your order electronically and they’ll have just enough employees to prepare bring your order to you. Low margin retailers have been preparing for this by installing order kiosks and self checkouts.

  4. Ammo shortage up date. Yesterday was bright and sunny so I decided to take a drive in the woods. I, of course, had an ulterior motive. There are a few sites where people go to shoot and being a brass scrounger I visit them about once a month. Seldom come home with less than a couple hundred rounds of spent brass and sometimes as much as 4-500. Being in the woods was quite enjoyable but brass harvesting was a complete bust. 2 pieces of 45-70 and one 22 long rifle were all I found.
    This jives with what I have experienced the last time ammo ran short. People shoot less and pick up their brass. I guess that I will actually have to dig into those 5 gallon buckets of brass that I have been saving for a rainy day if I am going to reload.

    1. And good luck with the reloading supplies.
      Last I checked, last Friday, 3 places listing 116 powders each, of all 116 in all three places, 7 powders were discontinued and the rest were “out of stock”. So disappointed I didn’t bother checking bullets or primers.
      Granted there is ammo to be found as well as reloading supplies. I live in the sticks without access to Mom & Pop gun shops or other avenues of supply within driving distance and I detest spending an entire day on the interlie web looking for non existent supplies….
      Hence the reduction in brass being found, everyone is hanging onto their supplies cause they know whats a comin.

  5. Good News: The Treatment Recommendation Panel at the National Institutes of Health has now decided that Ivermectin can and should be used to treat the Covid disease.

    Bad News: Nation wide shortage of oral Ivermectin.

    The NIH and the WHO and YouTube have blood on their hands for the censorship of this matter.

    1. The Doctor in the article that Big Mike posted goes along with the idea that Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine are far safer methods to protect yourself than the so called vaccine. Vitamin D and Zinc or Selenium will likely protect anyone under 70 and if you need more help after contracting the Wuhoo then the above two preventatives will get you through. The vaccine is EXPERIMENTAL and no one is liable for after effects.

  6. It appears the stupid folks that are clamoring for more gun control under Biden do not know much about Americans and cannot read. 39.1 million background checks last year were not about buying flower seeds. If they really wanted to unite the people, poking a sleeping bear and peeing on their rights is a poor way of doing it. So we can only assume Biden’s rhetoric about reuniting America is simply rhetoric. How did we not see that coming? Almost 50 years of his performance as a toady lick spittle, could have been a clue to even the brain dead liberals. Symbolism over substance, and oh how they lap it up. They also have a new weapon against America and that is to destroy the value of our money. I keep reading about a reset and I have to concur that it is likely, but I seriously believe they are not going to enjoy their efforts for very long before they are reset on a permeant basis. People will only take so much from oppressive leaders before they are deposed one way or another. Keep the faith, it is going to get a lot worse before the good people will have had enough of this Roman circus and take back the responsibility for their own lives.

    1. Of course it’s rhetoric. If he meant it, he would have called for “unity” four years ago also. This just makes him look good while his actions, which won’t get reported, will drive the divisiveness deeper.

  7. The gun shops I went to over the weekend had much less inventory than the previous week, and only a couple had any semblance of ammunition. In talking to them, it seems to be a combination of people getting their stimulus money, and the thought of a Biden/Harris administration going all in on gun control. People were getting concealed carry handguns, and fighting rifles. Very few are buying anything strictly for hunting right now.

    I was listening to an interview with Pete Brownell this weekend, and he was talking about the shortage of ammo and reloading components. He mentioned that while there is plenty of brass available, the issue in the foreseeable is powder and primers, because many of the components are now manufactured overseas. An Executive Order halting the import of any of those components will dramatically impact the availability of primers and powder for a long time. So, even if you want to reload, finding the powder and primers to do so is going to be extremely difficult.

  8. Our poor FBI actually did full background checks on all 25,000 National Guard troops in the SWAMP CITY OF DC! Mayor POS wouldn’t allow them in when the city was on fire. Great.
    Are the swamp creatures afraid? Better believe it.
    I can’t stand to watch the news right now. We’re keeping our TVs off all of Inauguration
    Day.
    We’ve also pledged to continue our “whiteout”
    of MLB and NASCAR, which began a year ago. The NBA and NFL were never watched by our family. What are the numbers? 78% felons? So they can just keep on kneeling and we’ll never know. They love your $$. They need more drugs, gold chains, and cars costing more than most homes.
    No college sports either. It’s the same thing. Some of them are already felons.
    KBN was, and may still be, running all military mess halls, PXs, gyms, etc., at least overseas. Sooo all TVs were tuned to CNN…nothing else. In fact there was a sign taped to each TV warning all to not change channels. Of course KBN is a civilian company, and a great number of liberal thugs manage it. If you were the right person you received special privileges such as 2-3 helpings of food in the mess hall, or allowed early entry, and so on and on. And brother (or sister), you best not complain. How about a discount on your purchases at the PX? Oh man, I didn’t do that, had to be a malfunction… it’s ok, go on back to work.

    Remember that dream you used to have when you were falling off a cliff but never hit the ground below? Well, we’re slipping towards the edge now. Pray we never get there. If we go over we will hit the bottom.

    God Bless President Donald Trump.
    God Bless America.

    Semper Fi

      1. Same here in ref. to barry, although I usually watch such things. I was in Iraq when he was elected, but we soon discovered our votes never made it to the US.
        Sounds familiar doesn’t it?
        Strange thing is the Iraqi people we associated with claimed barry was not an American, but was indeed a Saudi. And that the two daughters were also from Saudi Arabia. Barry adopted them there.
        I can’t prove anything either way. My interpreter, who was assigned to me for a year said everyone knew these things.
        This man started all our problems. If you haven’t yet done so, there are several excellent books to read out there.
        I have never trusted the “fact checker” sites, except one we used over there.
        Of the multitude of lies involving barry I am still surprised he used Harrison J. Bounel as his name on house deed in Chicago. Mr. Bounel had been dead for a long time.
        And that’s just one incident.

        Semper Fi

        1. I usually watch them too. There just was such an arrogance that the man projected that made me so angry. Rather like a smug illegitimate ruler who had his father and all his brothers murdered so he could be king. I won’t be watching NOPE Biden either. : )

    1. Yep, Dick Cheney knew how to make that moola. SOmetimes morally.

      This is from SB a few day ago, still true I reckon: “As I’ve said many times on this site, the special cap-gains tax rate — more than any other cause — is why we have such huge growth in disparity between the rich and the rest. Capital gains are where the top 10% make most of their money — not in wages like the rest of the populace — yet they pay a much lower rate on that kind of income-earning than the much of the middle class pays on their kind of income.”

      How will inflation affect this?

      Carry on

      1. Once you’re in the click the $$ starts rolling in. The lobbyists pay well. You can ask most any congressman or senator…they’re the ones standing knee deep in money.
        And they don’t care about us.

        Semper Fi

        1. Sigh, I fear you are right. Our system is broken. We must give our focus to local government and business, as we work together. I have been reading Rod Dreher’s philosophy on that since 2006 and was practicing it before then. Just amping it up each year.

          Carry on

          1. BWL, the early prophets and Paul would agree with you. I offer a bit of Paul by way of the author, Pam Vredevelt.

            1Therefore, since through God’s mercy we have this ministry, we do not lose heart. 2Rather, we have renounced secret and shameful ways; we do not use deception, nor do we distort the word of God. On the contrary, by setting forth the truth plainly we commend ourselves to everyone’s conscience in the sight of God. 3And even if our gospel is veiled, it is veiled to those who are perishing. 4The god of this age has blinded the minds of unbelievers, so that they cannot see the light of the gospel that displays the glory of Christ, who is the image of God. 5For what we preach is not ourselves, but Jesus Christ as Lord, and ourselves as your servants for Jesus’ sake. 6For God, who said, “Let light shine out of darkness,” made his light shine in our hearts to give us the light of the knowledge of God’s glory displayed in the face of Christ.
            7But we have this treasure in jars of clay to show that this all-surpassing power is from God and not from us. 8We are hard pressed on every side, but not crushed; perplexed, but not in despair; 9persecuted, but not abandoned; struck down, but not destroyed. 10We always carry around in our body the death of Jesus, so that the life of Jesus may also be revealed in our body. 11For we who are alive are always being given over to death for Jesus’ sake, so that his life may also be revealed in our mortal body. 12So then, death is at work in us, but life is at work in you.

            Carry on in grace

    1. My take is it is socialist propaganda. It talks about the 1% and income inequality. It fails to mention equality of opportunity. Take for instance some of the biggest billionaires (Gates, Bezos and Dorsey) started with nothing. Bottom line it is a push for socialism and I know how that will work, the rich and powerful get their half of the pie and everyone else gets the rest.

      1. BWL, your comment, “Take for instance some of the biggest billionaires (Gates, Bezos and Dorsey) started with nothing.”, led me to wonder if you were right. I looked up the first two names. Found this:

        Was Bill Gates born poor?

        Absolutely not. He was born upper-upper middle class [note Edit, below], his father was one of the most successful attorneys in Seattle, and his family was able to afford to send him to Lakeside, a distinguished private high school — and the first one in the area to give high school students access to computer time in the 1970s.After Bezos graduated from Princeton University in 1986, he was offered jobs at Intel, Bell Labs, and Andersen Consulting, among others.[34] He first worked at Fitel, a fintech telecommunications start-up, where he was tasked with building a network for international trade.[35] Bezos was promoted to head of development and director of customer service thereafter. He transitioned into the banking industry when he became a product manager at Bankers Trust. He worked there from 1988 to 1990.

        Carry on

      2. BWL, your comment, “Take for instance some of the biggest billionaires (Gates, Bezos and Dorsey) started with nothing.”, led me to wonder if you were right. I looked up the first two names. Found this:

        Was Bill Gates born poor?

        Absolutely not. He was born upper-upper middle class, his father was one of the most successful attorneys in Seattle, and his family was able to afford to send him to Lakeside, a distinguished private high school — and the first one in the area to give high school students access to computer time in the 1970s.

        After Bezos graduated from Princeton University in 1986, he was offered jobs at Intel, Bell Labs, and Andersen Consulting, among others.[34] He first worked at Fitel, a fintech telecommunications start-up, where he was tasked with building a network for international trade.[35] Bezos was promoted to head of development and director of customer service thereafter. He transitioned into the banking industry when he became a product manager at Bankers Trust. He worked there from 1988 to 1990.

        Another quote from you, “the rich and powerful get their half of the pie and everyone else gets the rest”. I agree, that is how socialism has worked in most countries. And, I wonder, how is that different from current circumstances?

        Have you read the entire document? Seen anything of value? I am still, slow reader that I am, slogging through.
        Carry on

        1. I’m sure there are better examples out there, Oprah Winfrey comes to mind. The point is that they worked hard to get where they are. That being said, most Americans will not even become millionaires let alone billionaires. However most Americans can improve their lives with hard work and good choices. One way to think of socialism, I had a job some years ago that every year everyone got a raise. Everyone received the same amount. Didn’t matter how hard you worked or didn’t work, everyone got the same raise. Getting paid the same as everyone else tends to stifle the desire to work harder. What in see from this paper is a transition to socialism. High minimum wage, share the wealth no matter who created it, Medicare for all, a radical climate change policy and other socialist agenda items that would stifle innovation and productivity much as it has done in other socialist countries. FDRs New Deal is used as an example of a government program that helped equalize the wealth distribution after WW2. WW2 was the primary stimulus. You had manufacturing for military hardware and millions joining the military dramatically reducing unemployment. During the war people couldn’t spend money because of rationing or being on the front lines so after the war people had money to spend. That spending spurred significant economic growth. Low unemployment pushes companies to provide more for their employees. My opinion is that this is socialist propaganda.

          1. I appreciate your candor, BWL. I’ll use that as I read on.

            BTW, what you said, “One way to think of socialism, I had a job some years ago that every year everyone got a raise. Everyone received the same amount. Didn’t matter how hard you worked or didn’t work, everyone got the same raise.”

            That got me to thinking. Some years ago, I bought $10,000 of stock, hoping to make money off the dividend. Two months in, the company notified me they were suspending the dividend. Well, I figured I got into this for the long-term, so I will hold on to the stock. A roller-coaster ride ensued. Eighteen months later, JWR noted the dangers of holding anything that wasn’t tangible. In some fear, I sold the stock…at just over $12,000. Quite a return on investment, due to no harder work on my part. Similar to that job.

            However, we call this capitalism. Even as I had no incentive to work harder or smarter. Indeed, my doing either one would have no effect on the price of the stock. As is, I note that much of the wealth of Jeff Bezos can be attributed to using the roads that you and I paid for. We live in a hybrid system. Folks did in the 30s, too.

            I’ll look and see if the authors of that paper acknowledge that reality.

            Carry on

  9. Greg Hunter has been kicked off of U-tube for a week. He can still be seen at usawatchdog.com . We are living in Nazi Germany/the Soviet Union now. Be aware.

  10. The Buffalo News is reporting that A State of New York Supreme Court Justice has issued an order mandating that a Buffalo area hospital treat an eighty year old COVID patient with
    oral Ivermectin. The female patient was on a ventilator and her family had been told that her
    chance of recovery was very slim.

    Her children got a lawyer.They won. The elderly lady won.We all won! She’s recovering nicely and will be going home soon.

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