Planning Scenario Number One- Part 1, by ShepherdFarmerGeek

What follows is my humble attempt at drawing connections between deep threads in world events. The links I’ve provided are just tiny samples of the information that is available online. This isn’t meant to be a thoroughly-documented report, but one potential scenario that some might have overlooked in the current enthusiasm for our new president. Some of this is a bit dated, but it points to the general reaction of Trump as president. This is my family’s current “Planning Scenario Number One,” and the pieces of the puzzle that fit so far.

A Serious, Well-Funded Move To Overthrow Trump Administration

It seems, so far, that there’s a serious, well-funded move to overthrow the new Trump administration, and finally let the economy collapse that the PTB have been frantically propping up all these years:

Take a look at these articles:

Russians Thought Hillary and Neocons/Liberals Would Start a War

During the Presidential election, the Russians made it clear that they thought Hillary and the Neocons/Liberals would start a war with them within just a few months of her election.

If Russians See Trump Administration Being Overthrown What’s To Stop Attack

If Russians then see Trump and his administration being overthrown (except the Deep State, of course), what are they going to conclude? Some leader in Russia is going to say, “Hey, it looks like we only have a few days to destroy the American nuclear/military capacity before these lunatics take over and use all that on us!” They cannot have lunatics with a finger on The Button. Then you get this.

And might not the opening act, the overture, of this scenario be an EMP, at least affecting part of the country, if not most? Maybe… It wouldn’t even have to be from the Russians. There’s a couple of North Korean satellites that orbit the U.S. several times a day and never transmit anything.

When U.S. Attacked What Will Libs/Commies/Dems Do

And if and when the U.S. is attacked by Russia/China/North Korea, what will the Libs/Commies/Democrats who have (re)captured the levers of power for themselves do? For one thing, the resulting government will no longer be the government of the “United States” vs conservative Christian patriot preppers. Instead, it will be an illegitimate, treasonous, hijacked, no-longer-a-Constitutional-Republic monstrosity that can no longer claim any loyalty from any of us. These leaders will likely double down on scapegoating us, and the country will come apart at the seams. “Civil War” won’t even begin to describe it. They’ll be those with an attitude like this.

Scenario Prophesied

Our country could look a whole lot like what David Wilkerson, A.A. Allen, Henry Gruver, and Dumitru Duduman prophesied years ago (for all their oddness and personal spin on what God might actually have shown them). For example:

Why mention “prophets” at all? Yes, I know it makes me sound like just another kook. (There might be some truth there… 😉  But there is a coherent kernel of warning that these messages share.)

We could have come to this scenario just by watching the unfolding global drama. We didn’t even need a “prophet” to tell us this was a real possibility. Yet there it is. Maybe, it will help us take seriously a potential worst-case scenario?

Citizens Turning Against Each Other

And if the Constitutional government of these United States goes down in flames, its citizens turning against each other like rabid animals, its military decimated or at least scattered, awash in famine and disease and conflict, what will the global response be? Well, for one, many nations of the world will be relieved, because they have come to view the U.S. as a threat to “world peace.”

And our addiction to overthrowing governments and interfering with other nations will finally be over.

Relieved Nations Post Troops in U.S.

The relieved nations of the world (UN), viewing a fallen United States, might be sad to see their best customer go (hmmm… reminiscent of a Bible verse you know about Babylon?), but they will also want to be certain we don’t accidentally revive and become a danger to their plans again, right? Will we be a Zombie States of America (ZSA)?

So they’re going to post troops. Maybe we’ll even bless China for sending “humanitarian” aid to our West coast. (They have an investment to protect, and they want our natural resources!) Makes sense, right? Additionally, as part of this scenario, they’ll go about subduing what’s left of the country’s government under a global government, à la the UN (or maybe even the Antichrist?). Well, I guess that depends on your eschatology. But if it looks like the shoe fits…

You know who would benefit from disabling our nation’s nuclear deterrent? Who benefits from wrecking our country (because they failed to hijack it in time)? It’s the New World Order / One World Government people. Because America was going to be an obstacle to their aspirations to power. Perhaps with America on its knees, they’ll finally achieve what they’ve been working toward for decades.

Stuff Could Happen

So, are we there yet? Seems to me all of this stuff could happen within only months from now. It’s just my opinion FWIW (and I’ve been known to be Royally Wrong before; just ask the Shepherdess). Is it really so hard to believe we could see a scenario just like this, next?

Maybe this is not what’s happening. Maybe this is all temporary, and everything’s going to get better and be peachy soon. But if it keeps heading in this direction, then you’ll know where it’s going. If the social unrest and riots and outrageous claims in the media continue to escalate as they have been, then what?

I’m not saying this is what’s going to happen. I’m not predicting it. I’m just saying, given current events, something like this seems like a possibility that we need to anticipate and plan for, like all the other scenarios, in true prepper fashion.

What Difference This Makes To Our Prepping

If this scenario is actually where things are headed, what difference would it make to our prepping efforts? Well, perhaps we’ll want:

More mobility, staying on the move (“orbiting” a small town or key area), able to move on short notice at any time, able to move at night or in inclement weather.

  1. ­Lighter weight. We might start out heavy but be willing and able to shed, or cache, gear and supplies as needed,
  2. ­More durable gear, rugged. Equipment that can take years of hard use, not just several months.
  3. Perhaps gear without batteries? (Great binoculars instead of night vision?)
  4. More focus on stored calories (maybe in distributed caches) and less focus on gardening, (Got caching barrels/containers?) Foraging, hunting, fishing, trapping, gleaning, and scrounging might still be useful. Guerilla gardening has potential, as long as you don’t just end up feeding the local wildlife.
  5. ­­Raiding supplies from the people trying to kill us, or from collaborators who are enabling them to do so,
  6. More focus on evading and less on confronting/defending,
  7. ­More focus on carving out a life in forbidding environments (Cold? Hot? Wet? Mountainous? Wilderness?),
  8. ­More emphasis on finding sympathetic supporters, and this means we can’t be too remote. (Or, at least, it means we’ll need a…
  9. ­Longer reach (bikes, motocross, horses, et cetera as well as rugged garden carts and wagons. The wheel was a great invention,
  10. ­More making ourselves harder to find by hostiles with thermal, drone, and RDF technology (not “just” mutant biker zombies), who are making a systematic search for us,
  11. ­More boldness in rescuing and sharing with our fellow survivors (and evangelism! Are you ready to share the Good News? Got Bibles?), and
  12. ­Less concern about protecting “our” stuff because every day is a miracle and we’re pleasantly surprised that we’re still standing, and it’s clearly God who is protecting us and not our “stuff,” more like a modern version of the Bielski Scenario. Watch the movie and take notes!Disclaimer: How this scenario affects our prepping efforts is going to depend on our unique situations, the people we’re with, our health, our level of preparedness when the S finally HTF, et cetera. Brainstorm this now, and plan accordingly!

See Also:

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

This has been part one of a two part entry for Round 79 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $11,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A gift certificate for any two or three-day class from Max Velocity Tactical (a $600 value),
  4. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  5. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from (a $240 value).

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 79 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.


  1. When a President get sworn in He fills approximately 5000 jobs in the Executive Branch. If Trump gets removed Pence becomes President. Obama does not come back. Hillary does not get sworn in. There will be no “overthrow”. But I have good news. Trump 2020 50 state landslide. Trump aint going anywhere. The only people who think so are medicated lefties. JUST IGNORE THEM. Your time would be better spent reading a good book. Don’t let the lefties jangle your nerves.

  2. And always get out and educate people to VOTE for the sustainable future of their families and this nation based upon Constitutional/Christian values…Yes , I understand “freedom from religion”, but that concept, even though tolerant of all peoples and cultures, will not hold the nation together.

    1. Actually, the text reads, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances”. There is no freedom FROM religion. It’s freedom OF religion. There is a huge distinction.

      The government was supposed to have no role in supporting or suppressing the free exercise of religion. There is no such concept either of “separation of church and state”. Read Jefferson’s full letter to get the true feel for what he was talking about.

  3. “A Serious, Well-Funded Move To Overthrow Trump Administration”

    There is legal precedent from 2009 where the FBI was said to be using entrapment to create a case…

    How often does this happen? Has this recently happened in Broward County Fl? What is the implication of these events on justice in the nation? On the western nations?

    Non-politicized justice is one of the foundational calls in both the old and the new testaments. Perversion of justice gets cited as a key factor in the exile during the time of Nebuchadnezzar.

    Although not my own denominational affiliation, I’d be the last one to regard Wilkerson, a kook; he was rather an outspoken individual who had his finger on the pulse of a nation.

    In spite of the prepper fiction that I enjoy reading, I don’t think most people who think of themselves as preppers, have really sat down and thought through the scenarios. I grew up hearing the stories of my ancestors in the middle of Europe during the World Wars – stories which do not reconcile very well with the fiction, incidentally.

    At the university we did analysis using game theory. Not only should we be reading more on history and trying to understand its implications here in modern times, but we should be using the tools such as game theory in predicting some of the potential outcomes.

    What I liked about this article is that it entertains the question of alternative scenarios of societal upheaval… and not simply re-hash ideas popularized in fiction.

  4. I don’t think we have an addiction to meddling in foreign nations as much as foreign nations have an addiction to soliciting our help.
    The price of that help is recognizing our way of life and adopting our ethics. Or at least it’s supposed to be.
    Instead, we’ve become administrator of the global welfare state.

    There are forces globally that need to be kept in check (as they’re actively working against us). We cannot do that from an office in DC. I think there are a few examples where we could withdraw troops, but we’re still going to have to support the small players in the field, so to speak.
    If we don’t, the Chinese or Russians will. Or worse, the frothing head of Islam will.
    We either fight them over there or we’ll have to fight them here, on our soil.
    I know which scenario I prefer.

    1. Can’t say I like that. It sounds great, the idea of keeping them over there, fighting our troops as a socio-economic solution, but those are my brothers and sisters being shot while “defending freedom” in those forsaken lands. Yes, we all signed up. But we signed up to defend the US, not sacrifice our brothers and sisters for someone else’s cause/problem, when they have no true interest in establishing a country, much less establishing western values and beliefs.

      As for creating a free-agency situation where other countries are competing for the military/espionage role in troubled countries, I can only see it on a regional basis. Russia isn’t taking the bait of getting involved in Afghanistan again, despite having a regional interest in expanding their circle of influence. The Chinese have zero experience doing it, and would be hard pressed to not nuke the whole country after watching their soldiers bodies stacked high. Also, China is busy building their vacant cities in Africa (google it) for future use (by them).

      The idea that the world will allow the US to crater and stay out of it bounds up against ridiculous. I suppose that means world interests will back someone in the food fight for control of the US. The question is if the US military would attempt to reposition resources as it starts (assuming a non-nuclear invasion), to a more defensible situation, like moving ground assets from Kansas to Texas; idea being to organize resources to support local defense vs peace time training.

    2. Ned2 you need to learn our history,for the last 200 years we have been directly and indirectly interfering in other nations internal affairs. Since we changed the government of Haiti in the very early 1800’s we have constantly interfered with our neighbors(Remember the Monroe Doctorine?). As our influence waxed we overthrew the rightful goverments of many places(Hawaii,Columbia(Panama),Cuba,Phillipines,etc). We started a new round under Clinton that continues today in Iraq,Afghanistan,Egypt,Libya,Syria,Ukraine,Bosnia,Croatia etc. Get facts straight and take responsibility.

    3. Brother Geek, you say: And our addiction to overthrowing governments and interfering with other nations will finally be over.

      In Marine Boot Camp, I was taught Maj General Smedley Butler was an exemplar of heroism and leadership. Two Medals of Honor, for starters.

      I wasn’t told that part of his job was to overthrow other nations.

      Check out his book:

      Then look here for more background:

      Carry on.

  5. This old coot is so old that he remembers what we have lost. I spent 35 years fighting a losing battle to restore constitutional government. Folks, open your eyes. Lincoln’s republic has devolved into a democracy; a fancy word for a lynch mob.

    America is bankrupt morally and fiscally, its wealth has been plundered, its gates have been abandoned, and now waves of foreign invaders are heading in.

    “Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand.” Matthew 12:25 (KJV)

    Is there real hope? You bet! It lies in New Free and Independent States with New Borders.

    1. Roger are you referring to secession? The way I see things, America is so divided it’s like the (dems verses reps, straights verses homos, moral folk verses the Godless, capitalist verses socialist and so on) and I don’t see things changing. A house divided against itself shall fall and as a Christian I have no plans of being swayed over to the wrong side. I often think of how nice it would be if I lived somewhere where nearly everyone around me had the same political beliefs and where most people were Christians. What if somehow people of like mind could form there own geographical area of the country and just live there without the constant fighting that is going on every day around us. That dream may be impossible but it is something that I think about a lot. However when I bring the subject up to my friends I usually get the same reply “That could never happen.”

      1. M-ray, the dream you describe is exactly our best hope. I thought the Republicans’ NDAA destroying our Bill of Right would be a catalyst for secession. Wrong. Patriots did jack. That was 7-1/2 years ago. Maybe it was for the best.

        At least 95% of liberty’s enemies have one thing in common. They are city-dwellers. Be patient. Multiple ‘triggers’ (4 weeks of Grid-Down, no truckers, financial collapse, political collapse etc.) could decimate all cities. Their passion won’t turn their lights back on, provide food or water or unclog their toilets and their exits. That is simply reality. Why go to war with them?

        The USSR collapsed in 1991. It was preceded by 10 years of war in Afghanistan and one year of political chaos and cultural division, fall of the Berlin Wall which was a BORDER and the election of a new President with completely different values compared to the previous President. Sound familiar?

        Folks tell me the same thing. They parrot, ‘Don’t be silly. That could never happen in America. Vote Republican! MAGA!’ It’s a classic example of cognitive dissonance.

        My advice: PREPARE accordingly. Think about where you want your loved ones to be when the breakup happens, an ‘Estonia’ or a ‘Tajikistan’.

        Like the line in the Forest Gump movie, “And then one day it was over, just like that.”

    1. Greg, and vote Republican, vote fascism.

      Chuck Baldwin, said it best. “When the Democrats control things, America gets more socialism; when the Republicans control things, America gets more corporatism, which is a polite word for fascism. Socialism requires government to own everything, while fascism requires government to control everything. And remember, too, fascists and socialists have always hated each other. So who cares which of these two parties happens to be in power? Our freedoms continue to be under siege. That’s why the battle in Washington politics has nothing to do with preserving freedom, but everything to do with HOW government will take freedom. Will they take it by ownership or by control?”

      Who is Chuck Baldwin? He is the Constitution Party Presidential nominee who conservatives should have voted for. But no, they had to have the darling of globalists, John McCain. See what I mean?

  6. This is just a thought…
    When mankind (in America) believed in individual liberty – they were individuals.
    They saw others as individuals and actually accepted the differences as normal and often admirable.
    When did we become hypnotized into believing -that NOT having a herd mentality made us an enemy of freedom? Or worse yet – unbenificial to the
    “common good” of society??

  7. A few quick points:
    The Russians believe that there are cold war hold overs in our military and Neo-cons that are itching to start a war with them. Its probably half true, and half russian paranoia.

    If Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, ISIS had a magic button that could make the US disappear, they’d certainly push it. But it’s not that simple. Someone would have to use a dupe, like a gang of muslim terrorists to set off a surprise EMP attack. The problem is, if it failed, and the plot was exposed, it would create an unprecedented sh*t storm, of which THEY might not survive. If you intend to kill the King you had better make sure you succeed.

    However, a civil war … and I mean a REAL civil war with Quantrill’s raiders, and hangings and burned down cities, and mobilized National Guard troops on State borders would be just the thing our enemies would love to see. And they almost certainly would take advantage of it. They might not even need that EMP attack… they’d just choose the side that most closely matched their idea of a servile state, and fund it and arm it.

    How this would affect survival preparations? It’s anyone’s guess.

    History shows when the Roman Empire fell, people still survived. When armies ravaged across europe from the time of Constantine up to the Second World War, people survived. Yes, many died, but someone always survived, whether by luck, or skill or God’s grace, someone always survived.

    It seems to me your ability to survive is linked to how many options you have. In other words, don’t find yourself in a S.O.L. situation. MAKE your own luck. I can recall seeing many old photographs of people fleeing cities during war time, everything they had piled on a horse drawn cart, and if they didn’t have a horse they pulled their own cart. In the 1850’s thousands of Mormons had to pull their own hand carts from Iowa to Nebraska. During WW-2, some Jews fled into the woods to avoid be captured and sent to a concentration camp. If they had the means, some fled to another country. From the time of the “Ice man” people were moving, even across huge mountain chains and glaciers. (I take it, from the arrow in his back, he apparently just wasn’t moving fast enough.)

    Mobility seems to be the key. What are you going to do if one day you find your beautiful rural retreat is in the middle of a tank battle or artillery exchange… your garden has tank treads through it, and your chicken coop is on fire? Or you wake up and half your house is missing due to an aerial bombing ? Maybe putting all your eggs in one basket isn’t such a good thing? Maybe caching small amounts of supplies in several locations is a viable option, especially for those without rural property. That strategy seems to work for the scrub jays I see around my place.

  8. While all of these comments regarding Russia attacking us are possible, I don’t see them as likely. Simply because we have enough assets at sea and in the air to destroy them as well.
    As Joshua learned in “War Games” after playing thousands of variations of tic-tac-to, the concept of futility and mutually assured reasoned that the only winning move is not to play.

    And so it is because whoever attacks us will also die.

    However, the Internet and the Internet of Things are gigantic loopholes where anyone can enter and wreak havoc. They can take down our grid, disable nuke and power plants, and bring industry to a halt…and they can do it, just like David Lightman did, from his bedroom.

    There is really nothing stopping someone from creating this kind of havoc other than the fact that we are of probably of better use alive rather than dead…at least for now.

  9. Comments about the comments:

    Folks, modern Russia is not the Soviet Union. That is a neoconservative/neoliberal fantasy. I recently heard Rand Paul inadvertently refer to Russia as the Soviet Union, a slip of the tongue, old habits die hard.

    Why on God’s green earth would we as Christians ever presume to go after another Christian country. European Russia of 2018 is the most Christian country in all of Europe. That is not fantasy, it is an indisputable truth. If you try to dispute it you are spreading Deep State propaganda and Deep State paranoia. Pick better sources for your information, those people are absolutely insane. Pay attention!

    Russia’s paranoia: Just because I’m paranoid, doesn’t mean someone isn’t out to get me. If you pay attention to the Deep State rhetoric coming out of our State Department, our UN delegation, our rep at NATO ( Kay Bailey Hutchinson) and, in particular, John Bolton, I don’t blame Putin and Russia for thinking paranoia might just be an extremely rational response.

    Our war in Afghanistan had nothing to do with 9/11, period. It was and still is about Iran. Our war in Iraq was never about Iraq, weapons of mass destruction, or even Saddam Hussein. It was, and still is, about Iran. Every action the US has taken in the middle east is about Iran, period. The idea that we need to “fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them here” is Bush 43 Deep State propaganda, period. We were never in any danger of having them, the Islamists, come here to fight us. NEVER!

    Why Iran? We staged a coup d’etat in Iran in 1953, a regime change operation involving our CIA and British MI6, the Anglo-American Deep State. We installed a brutal fascist dictator Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran. The Iranians took back control of their country in 1979. Our Deep State has a long memory and got really worked up over that counter-coup. We, more correctly, our Deep State, has been working to regain control ever since. So, by what right, by what moral authority, do we dictate to any other sovereign nation, the nature of their government? Think about it, give it some thought. We wouldn’t stand for it here, now would we.

    If you think I’m wrong, look at a map of the middle east. Afghanistan is just to the east of Iran, we now have military assets including a military base in Afghanistan. Iraq is just to the west of Iran, we now have military assets including military bases in Iraq. Even our disputes with Russia are about Iran. Iran still has a border with Russia, we don’t have military assets or military bases in Russia. Iran has friendly relations with Russia, our Deep State doesn’t like that. So our Deep State must confront Russia, to destroy Iran.

    Finally, there is also the vast amounts of oil and natural gas in Russia and Iran and the proposed pipelines to Europe from both Russia and Iran. We, our Deep State, doesn’t like that. We can’t have either country use their own natural resources to improve the lives of their own people, now can we.

    You know, our Deep State is really good at regime change. It has happened in something like 80 countries around the world, from Afghanistan in 1953, to Honduras in 1954, to the to the Ukraine in 2014. The American Deep State has it’s sights set on another regime change, that of Donald J. Trump. So far, he has been able to sidestep around the ongoing plot to remove him from office. I pray he continues to do so.

    We as preppers are skeptical to the point of paranoia about the intentions of our government, with valid reasons. Just because you are paranoid, doesn’t mean someone isn’t out to get you.

    Last but not least, this was a terrific article. Looking forward to reading part 2.

    1. Charles,glad that someone else gets it but remember thr original name for the invasion of Iraq? OIL operation Iraqi freedom,it is about resources-especially oil(Afghanistan refused a oil pipeline 10 months before we invaded,they also cut off the CIA’s drug supplies,Iraq threatened to sell oil for Euros the same with Libya. Look outside for options,it may be time to set up BOL outside the US where the deep state isn’t rushing headlong for destruction.

  10. Just consider this thought: what if 10% of the illegal aliens present today in CONUS were trained military troops … that would constitute a force of approximately 2.3 million soldiers … now start chewing on that problem ….

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