Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on the possibility of a coming Euro collapse. (See the Forex section.)
Precious Metals:
Gold Prices Unchanged Following Mixed Durable Goods Data
Global Economy:
Japan will reach 2% inflation target and can begin reducing stimulus in five years, BOJ’s Kuroda says. JWR’s Comments: The Japanese Nikkei Average fell from a high of 40,000 at the end of 1989 to under 15,000 by 1992. Then their real estate prices followed suit, with a 60% decline. With the exception of a few years and the effects of artificial stimulus, the Japanese economy has been in a demographics-driven DEPRESSION for more than 35 years. They were the first country to attempt ZERO interest rates, for stimulus. And even that hasn’t worked. So now we are told that “just five more years” of artificial stimulus should do the trick! The sad fact is that the Japanese economy is a basket case. Japan is a country where they sell more adult diapers than they do baby diapers. If you attempt to fight a demographic sea change with monetary policy, you will lose. You fight a demographic war with demographic weapons. Unless the birth rate in Japan increases radically, by the year 2100, Japan will probably become a quaint retirement haven province of China. The United States and the EU nations should learn from Japan’s mistake and ban abortion! A birth rate that does not exceed a mere replacement rate is tantamount to national suicide, in the long term.
Cryptos:
Talk about two divergent views! Compare these articles:
Bitcoin will become the world’s single currency, Twitter chief says
and,
Bitcoin price will crash to zero, Nouriel Roubini says
(I can safely state that they can’t both be right!)
Commodities:
CNBC video: Commodities are going wild and there’s even more room to run… (Note: Todd Gordon is a die-hard chartist.)
o o o
Forget Oil Price Forecasts, It’s Just Another Cycle
Forex (Euro Collapse):
Martin Armstrong: Will the Euro Survive by 2021?
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Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Extend Losses on Dovish ECB Commentary
o o o
Pound climbs to second-highest level since Brexit vote – as it happened
Tangibles Investing:
The CPA Journal: Planning for Collectibles
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. So please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often “get the scoop” on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!
Regarding Cryptos, and why they both can’t be right. I think, and expect that they CAN both be right. Everyone in the world still has not broadband, highspeed internet. Crypto’s are another “fiat” currency with no intrinsic value. It’s not something I will buy.
Cryptos could very well be just another way for the government to accumulate YOUR wealth.
They did it with the dollar.
For a while on line poker was very popular. Poker is a fascinating game and I was tempted to get involved. I learned that in the U. S. it was not legal so the Americans setting up on line gambling sites had to do it and operate “off shore” meaning in foreign countries. Then I thought if I were setting up this enterprise to make money, knowing it was not legal for me or my customers in the U. S. why would I design an honest game site? Why would I not add a “back door” that would allow me to participate in games and cheat to assure that I would win? As it turned out on line gambling sites were shut down by authorities for this very reason.
We are constantly hearing reports of systems being hacked and valuable financial and identity data being stolen. This continues to happen even for entities that should, because of the nature of their business, have the absolute best security. I do not know if any have been proven to be “inside jobs” using systems designed to make this possible, but if it hasn’t happened it will. We even hear of possibilities that by hacking control of physical systems could be hijacked. Hijackers could take over or shut down electrical grids, cell phone communications, banking records.
If these thoughts don’t make you fear Crypto Currencies here are a few more. Crypto’s are the ultimate Fiat money. It is not even backed by “the full faith and credit” of any government or entity. There are no elected, appointed, or even known managers. The value of the currency is dependent on the supply (number of units allowed in circulation) which is said to be limited to a specific finite amount. Unfortunately this promise comes from the anonymous creator of the system (yes I know many believe he has been outed). Surely this creator would never break this promise. He would never have designed in a few extra units for himself to cash out little bits at a time, or cash out all at once with a huge infusion and sell out! Creators of competing Crypto’s have said the cyber system used by Bit Coin will be overloaded and crash, and that’s even if it doesn’t get hacked. Governments will not give up control of their monopolies on monetary systems without a fight. Probably will start by making transactions illegal or taxing resulting income excessively; might even secretly declare a cyber war and destroy the systems.
Years ago I did have a neighbor who made lots of money selling Amway products (often accused of being a pyramid scheme), but he was in early and got out in time. I have know others who made money in real Pyramid Schemes by getting in early and out before it was to late, but these “profits” were forever subject to “recall”. While Bit Coin is not technically a Pyramid Scheme it has some of the characteristics. Anyone who got in early and gets out before the big crash might do well. That ship has probably sailed and will not likely come back.
The big question is: Why would anyone trying to protect against societal collapse speculate in a Fiat money system completely dependent on a secure and functioning cyber network?
@Old John: Satoshi mined something like a million bitcoin for himself before letting anyone else have a shot. While bitcoin is limited in the number that can be created and many have been destroyed due to hardware destruction, bitcoin has also been doubled multiple times through forking, and the new forked products have been forked… plus there are 1,400+ other crypto currencies out there… I personally refer to bitcoin as a Royal Nonesuch because it reminds me of Mark Twain’s scene where all the neighbors paid their money to see the play and then it turned out to be a gyp, but they then convince their neighbors to pay to go see the play as the best thing they ever saw in their life. Then those people went out and convinced the next batch… they all got what they paid for, but it turned out to be nothing and a waste of money. My question is why would anyone trust any fiat currency that doesn’t have a gun pointed at the back of their head to force them to use it?
“Unless the birth rate in Japan increases radically, by the year 2100, Japan will probably become a quaint retirement haven province of China.”
I hear these kinds of reports often and do not understand the logic. For example Japan is a closed country you cannot immigrate there. They do allow a few people to come in but not many. So if they decide to not let any Chinese come in then this statement is pure BS. And the basis for this flawed logic that a falling birthrate means disaster seems totally lacking in any real thought. By that thinking every country with fewer people than Japan has must already be a disaster. But of course they are not. Japan would still be Japan with even halt the number of people they have today. The size of the population does not make the country. I would like to see zero immigration in our country and it wouldn’t hurt my feeling if our population reduced by half as well. We would all be better off. Large populations are a curse.
Yes, they can both be right…at different times. However, I won’t be on that train for the reasons given by Old John.
True, smaller populations are not necessarily a bad thing, but when populations are smaller and older it can reduce a countries productivity and prosperity. National poverty could cause even Japan to open up to foreign investors and dilute traditional Japanese culture. There are smaller locale examples of that throughout the united States. One is the “Californication” of Montana.
ZPG aka, zero population growth is not 2 children born to replace the parents. With average death rates I understand it takes 2.75 births to hit zpg. Any population that doesn’t grow will have difficulty in growing the economy. That’s why everyone wants to sell products around the world, more consumers. If you want the home economy to grow there are only so many options. I get world population is of concern for all the obvious reasons. But then again the world health organization has said for decades (I know if you can believe them, and in that instance I do) as I recall , the earth produces enough food for a 2000 calorie a day diet for everyone. Just think about all the wasted food every day from home, grocery stores to the fields of non perfect produce that never makes it to market. However politics, religion, and greed prevent it. I’m not advocating any social redistribution program here, just observing the information. In light of the modern human desire to retire while still having some health, we need to both save a portion of our income, and invest some of it as well. If companies can’t increase sales year over year profits tend to stagnant. The USA white population has worked hard to achieve zpg and so has a large majority of the black population. So how do we fuel a growing economy, immigration both legal and illegal. Now you know why nobody in politics or corporate leadership will be serious about the border. It’s all very complicated and I dont pretend to have the answers save the theocratic government of our creator. Which given the current state of affairs i hope isn’t to much farther away. In the mean time we get what we work for.
God created the universe so that His adopted human children would populate Heaven. Our elites want fewer people. A lot fewer people. See the Georgia Guidestones on this. Population control has become population reduction
Why? A lot of talk about ecology, but there is no interest in real ecology, or in the real environment, just in political control. I live in the East where millions upon millions of oak trees are dying of oak wilt. When you look down at Eastern forests through Google, you see long strands of dead brown winding through the living green. It never gets mentioned in the media. None of the people I ask even have a clue it’s happening.
Population control isn’t about the environment. Population control is about frustrating God’s intention for human life by making sure there are as few humans as possible. Satan’s first choice: damnation. Second choice: that human souls never come into existence at all.
The comments that looked at human life from the perspective of economics are missing the point, even if the point is accurate. Frustration God’s purpose for the universe is a bad idea. “Be fruitful and multiply” He said.
I first started to doubt overpopulation propaganda while flying during the daytime in the summer along the Boston-New York corridor, which is one of the most densely populated areas in America. All I could see was trees.
Be careful about forcing women to become mothers. Women forced in this way tend to subconsciously hate the children that have taken their freedom and are usually very bad parents. Their unloved, unwanted children cause a lot of trouble later. Children can overcome many disabilities, but being unloved is the hardest. And despite what conservatives claim, mothers do not automatically love their babies. Remember that Ann Landers survey years ago where about 70% of her respondents said if they had to make the choice again, they wouldn’t have children? Accept that some women simply weren’t made to be mothers, despite the presence of ovaries.