Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the recent spike in propane prices (See the Commodities section.)

Precious Metals:

The Next Phase Of Gold’s Bull Market Has Just Begun. JWR’s Comments:  2024 was a great year for gold investors. Spot gold posted a gain of 27.2% in US dollar terms, 37.1% in Swiss Franc (CHF) terms, and 35.6% in terms of Euros.  Given the Federal Reserve’s ongoing expansion of the money supply, it is realistic to expect a 12% or more gain in the spot price of gold (in Dollar terms), in calendar year 2025.

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Chinese Gold Demand Showed Seasonal Strength in December.

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Silver demand spikes due to solid-state battery tech advancements.

Economy & Finance:

The 10-year Treasury yield is nearing 5% again. Why stock-market investors are freaking out.

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Bank of America Braces for Massive Bond Losses as Yields Soar.  An excerpt from the article’s opening lines:

“A sharp rise in rates since the end of the third quarter widened losses on bank securities portfolio and could become an investor issue again when banks start reporting their fourth-quarter results in the next week.

Bank of America has the largest unrealized losses in the banking industry and could be a focus of investor attention.

Barron’s estimates that Bank of America’s paper losses on a portfolio of $568 billion of bonds, mostly U.S. agency mortgage securities, could widen to $111 billion or more, compared with $86 billion at the end of September.

Industrywide, total unrealized losses could top $500 billion, up from $364 billion at the end of the third quarter. These losses involve all banks insured by the FDIC. The total potential losses would still be narrower than the nearly $700 billion at banks at the end of the third quarter of 2022.”

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The BBC reported: Madoff fraud victims get $4.3 billion as fund completes payouts.

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Macy’s And Kohl’s Announce Closures Of 93 Stores In Total.

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Reader H.L. suggested this report at Zero Hedge: L.A. County Inferno Expected To Top $250 Billion In Losses.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — January 23, 2025

January 23, 1855 was the birthday of John Moses Browning. He was the brilliant designer of dozens of guns, including the Model 1911 .45 ACP pistol, Browning Automatic Rifle (BAR), the Auto-5 shotgun (pictured with designer, above), and the venerable M2 .50 Caliber Browning Machinegun.  Variants of all four of these are still in production, more than a century later.

Today is also the birthday of my #2 Grandson. His coincidental “Browning Birthday” has ensured that he will inherit a disproportionately large portion of my guns that are Browning designs. – JWR

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Sales of the new 2005-2024 SurvivalBlog waterproof archive sticks are continuing apace, with more than 950 sold.  There are now less than 65 left on hand. So, get your order in soon. For a full list of the included bonus books, see my post from Monday, January, 13th.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 116 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A Peak Refuel “Wasatch Pack” variety of 60 servings of premium freeze-dried breakfasts and dinners in individual meal pouches — a whopping 21,970 calories, all made and packaged in the USA — courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses. Their course catalog now includes their latest Survival Gunsmithing course.
  5. HSM Ammunition in Montana is providing a $250 gift certificate. The certificate can be used for any of their products.

Second Prize:

  1. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  2. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  3. A Laptop EMP Shield and a Smartphone Faraday Bag (a combined value of $200), courtesy of MobileSecSolutions.com.
  4. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of gun purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. A Berkey Light water filter, courtesy of USA Berkey Filters (a $305 value),
  2. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  3. A $200 credit from Military Surplus LLC that can be applied to purchase and/or shipping costs for any of their in-stock merchandise, including full mil-spec ammo cans, Rothco clothing and field gear, backpacks, optics, compact solar panels, first aid kits, and more.
  4. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $935,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. In 2023, we polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Please refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 116 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Preparing For The Post-Apocalyptic Economy – Part 1, by 3AD Scout

One of my survival planning assumptions is that regardless of my stored goods and planning, “Murphy” will appear with the proverbial monkey wrench in hand. At some point, my food stores will wear thin and, something will break along with its spares. Amazon and the local Acme hardware will long be a thing of the past. What is a Prepper to do? Well, like everything we do for our future survival, we ponder, plan and prepare for those contingencies.

Bartering is probably about as old as the Earth’s soil. Even with all our economic advances through the centuries, bartering is still a useful exchange of goods and services. In my opinion, bartering will be our “failsafe” for our prepping shortfalls during The End of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) events. Granted there are other options such as stealing or scavenging (just a polite word for stealing) but those methods will be risky.

As we are thrust back into a majority agrarian world, bartering will serve as a way to trade our “surplus” food for other things we need. Surplus food in the Apocalypse? Yes, surplus food. Think about having a bumper crop of zucchini (like that never happens) along with a great harvest of your other crops. You have dried, canned, or otherwise preserved more than enough food to last you and your family until the next crops come in or perhaps you have run out of canning jars. Whatever the reason, you very well may find yourself with excess fresh food during a post-SHTF harvest. The same may even happen with other foods like eggs, honey, and meat from game or livestock. Bartering or trading will be a great way of turning your surplus food into other useful things you need or want. The following are some topics to consider when stocking items for barter and setting up a system of trade.Continue reading“Preparing For The Post-Apocalyptic Economy – Part 1, by 3AD Scout”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods. This column is a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from JWR. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats, and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. In today’s column, a further examination of Avian Influenza.

Bird Flu: 20 Million Dead Chickens in US

Reader C.B. sent this: Bird flu kills 20 million chickens in US, driving egg prices sky-high. JWR Asks:  How many of those 20 million were killed by the virus, and how many were cullls, killed based on the decrees of unelected bureaucrats?

In related news: HHS awards $306 million in Avian Flu monitoring and preparedness funding.

Armed L.A. Residents Patrol Neighborhoods

Armed LA Residents Patrol Neighborhoods In Violation Of Evacuation Orders. JWR’s Comments:  Suddenly (and I suspect just briefly), “open carry” is not being treated as a crime in California’s fire-ravaged region.

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A related video from Armed Attorneys: Shooting Looters: What if your castle is burned down?

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“In view of the Constitution, in the eye of the law, there is in this country no superior, dominant, ruling class of citizens. There is no caste here. Our Constitution is colorblind, and neither knows nor tolerates classes among citizens. In respect of civil rights, all citizens are equal before the law. The humblest is the peer of the most powerful.” – John Marshall Harlan, 1896

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — January 22, 2025

On January 22, 1506 the first contingent of 150 Swiss Guards arrived at the Vatican. They still quite competently guard it, in the 21st Century.

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On January 22, 1944, Allied forces began landing at Anzio, Italy.

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Today is the birthday of the late Linda Rawles (“The Memsahib.”)

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We are in great need of entries for Round 116 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $935,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. In 2023, we polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Please refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 116 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Trump’s Second Term: Some Hopes and Fears

January 20, 2025 was a pivotal day in American political history. President Donald J. Trump (DJT) was ushered into office on a very cold day that necessitated an indoor ceremony inside the Capitol rotunda, beneath the Apotheosis painting. He vowed to “dismantle government bureaucracy.” On that day, many of the Deep State inhabitants of the District of Criminals gave DJT a cold reception. A few Democrat Governors have even promised to actively resist DJT’s planned reforms. So has the leftist ACLU.

Just as he promised, DJT signed more than 100 executive orders (EOs) in the first 28 hours of his second term in office.  One of these forthrightly reversed 78 of Joe Biden’s ill-conceived EOs. The general gist of the tally of EOs was toward less government. As described at the White House web page, some of the first batch of executive orders included:

Declaring a Border Invasion
Designating Cartels And Other Organizations As Foreign Terrorist Organizations
Reforming The Federal Hiring Process And Restoring Merit To Government Service
Ending Radical And Wasteful Government DEI Programs And Preferencing
Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism And Restoring Biological Truth To The Federal Government
Establishing And Implementing The President’s “Department Of Government Efficiency”
America First Policy Directive To The Secretary Of State
Protecting The United States From Foreign Terrorists And Other National Security And Public Safety Threats
Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Global Tax Deal
Organization of the National Security Council and Subcommittees
Reevaluating And Realigning United States Foreign Aid
Temporary Withdrawal of All Areas on the Outer Continental Shelf from Offshore Wind Leasing and Review of the Federal Government’s Leasing and Permitting Practices for Wind Projects
Declaring a National Energy Emergency
Restoring Accountability for Career Senior Executives
Promoting Beautiful Federal Civic Architecture
Restoring The Death Penalty And Protecting Public Safety
Putting People Over Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California
Securing our Borders
Protecting The Meaning And Value Of American Citizenship
Realigning the United States Refugee Admissions Program
Unleashing American Energy
Clarifying The Military’s Role In Protecting The Territorial Integrity Of The United States
America First Trade Policy
Memorandum to Resolve the Backlog of Security Clearances for Executive Office of the President Personnel
Declaring A National Emergency At The Southern Border Of The United States
Holding Former Government Officials Accountable For Election Interference And Improper Disclosure Of Sensitive Governmental Information
Restoring Accountability To Policy-Influencing Positions Within the Federal Workforce
Withdrawing The United States From The World Health Organization
Application Of Protecting Americans From Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act To TikTok
Granting Pardons And Commutation Of Sentences For January 6, 2021 Protestors
Putting America First In International Environmental Agreements
Delivering Emergency Price Relief for American Families and Defeating the Cost-of-Living Crisis
Federal Hiring Freeze
Regulatory Freeze Pending Review
Return to In-Person Work
Ending The Weaponization Of The Federal Government
Restoring Freedom Of Speech And Ending Federal Censorship

The majority of those point to less government and more free enterprise.  But a few — such as the as-yet undefined “Emergency Price Relief” could mean more government through artificially-imposed controls. (I’ve warned about wage and price controls, in SurvivalBlog.)

Most of those EOs will surely be implemented without a fuss.  But a few will require the cooperation of congress to enact enabling legislation, and a few may be delayed or overturned by the Federal courts. In particular, DJT’s promise to end automatic birthplace citizenship will almost surely be challenged.
Continue reading“Trump’s Second Term: Some Hopes and Fears”

SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets

Our weekly Snippets column is a collection of short items: responses to posted articles, practical self-sufficiency items, how-tos, lessons learned, tips and tricks, and news items — both from readers and from SurvivalBlog’s editors. Note that we may select some long e-mails for posting as separate letters.

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Reader C.B. recommended this well-reasoned article by prolific gun and preparedness writer Duncan Long (pictured, in a self-portrait from his younger days):  Backpack Fever. JWR’s Comments: This article was written in 1989, but it is still quite relevant. I still hear the same fantasy “survival” plans espoused in e-mails from some of my younger readers. The truth is that anywhere outside of the tropics it takes a big pile of food, tools, clothing, bedding, and more to survive — far more than can be carried in a backpack, or even in a pickup truck. I should also mention that I’ve consistently seen Duncan Long’s books at gun shows since the late 1980s, and I have several of them in my home library.  Sadly, several of those titles went out of print when the publisher Loompanics closed its doors in May of 2006.

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New blood type discovered after solving 50-year-old mystery. (Thanks to reader C.B. for the link.)

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A Garand Thumb video: How To Evade A Professional Military In The Winter Mountains.

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Reader Bobby G. sent this news: Thieves Break Into California Army Reserve Center, Humvees and Equipment Stolen.

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets”

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — January 21, 2025

In honor of the birthday of John Moses Browning (January 23rd, 1855), we have begun a 10-day sale at Elk Creek Company.  This January sale is always our biggest sale of the year. All of our gun and knife inventory has been deeply reduced until January 31st, 2025.  Don’t miss out on these Birthday Week sale prices!

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On January 21, 1793, Louis XVI of France was executed by guillotine in Paris, following his conviction for “high treason” by the newly created French Parliament (Convention nationale), during the French Revolution.

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January 21, 1525: The Swiss Anabaptist Movement began when Conrad Grebel, Felix Manz, George Blaurock, and a dozen others baptize each other in the home of Manz’s mother in Zürich, breaking a thousand-year tradition of church-state union. This movement led to great consternation in the Catholic church, persecution, and the eventual dislocation of many Anabaptist dissidents, including the followers of Jakob Ammann – The “Amish.”

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Sales of the new 2005-2024 SurvivalBlog waterproof archive sticks have been very brisk. When I last checked, there were only 90 remaining. The first batch of orders will be going in the mail on Thursday. As always, orders are mailed out in the order that they are received. Get your sticks on order before they sell out. For a full list of the included bonus books, see my post from Monday, January, 13th.

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We are in great need of entries for Round 116 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $935,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. In 2023, we polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Please refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 116 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Get Ready for Tariff War 2 or World War 3

This brief essay serves as a reminder, for the new year.

As we enter 2025, both geopolitics and global economics are displaying some profound changes.  The Ukraine war, the fall of Assad’s government in Syria, and the ongoing civil wars in Burma (aka Myanmar), Yemen, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia all have the potential to spill over into wider conflicts. Ditto for potential invasions in Taiwan and South Korea. Meanwhile, the rise of the BRICS trade bloc, the out-of-control U.S. National Debt, global debt as a whole, and the run-up of precious metals prices are all evidence of deep-seated economic trouble. The source of those economic woes can be traced to the abandonment of gold-backed currencies and the predominance of fractional reserve banking.  With Donald Trump beginning his second term in office, there is talk of a brewing trade war triggered by higher tariffs.  This could be something similar to the tariff war of the 1930s.

For preparedness-minded families, these manifold threats are quite troubling. They should spur a recommitment to stocking up and making plans to live independently for months or even years. That level of self-sufficiency could be needed in the event of another pandemic, an economic collapse, or a Third World War.Continue reading“Get Ready for Tariff War 2 or World War 3”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies located in the American Redoubt region that are of interest to preppers and survivalists. Today, a description of the most remote places in CONUS.

Region-Wide

Video: The Most Remote Places Left in America (Lower 48). JWR’s Comment:  It should come as no surprise to SurvivalBlog readers that six of the regions profiled in this video are geographically in The American Redoubt.

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For the artsy crowd: UMOCA Utah free screening of “Redoubt” film on January  31, 2025.

Idaho

In southern Idaho: Drivers urged to slow down as elk collisions surge.

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Video: The Most Remote Places Left in America (Lower 48). JWR’s Comment:  It should come as no surprise to SurvivalBlog readers that six of the regions profiled in this video are in The American Redoubt.

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Latest Idaho grad rates show modest gains and a 10-year high.

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

Preparedness Notes for Monday — January 20, 2025

On January 20, 1954, a low of -70°F was measured at Rogers Pass, Montana. This still stands as the record low temperature in the contiguous United States.

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January 20, 1981: 52 American hostages were released by the Iranian government, following 444 days of captivity, to be reunited with their families. Not coincidentally, Ronald Reagan was sworn in as President, the same day. I have a feeling that Hamas may soon be releasing its Israeli hostages, for a quite similar reason.  – JWR

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The new 2005-2024 SurvivalBlog waterproof archive sticks are selling out rapidly. There are now less than 70 available. Many readers are ordering 2 or 3 of them at a time. The sticks are now in hand with the family that handles our order fulfillment, and they are packing orders.  Mailings of the USB sticks will begin on Thursday, more than a week ahead of schedule.  Orders will be filled in the order that they were received. For a full list of the included bonus books, see my post from Monday, January, 13th.

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Today’s feature article is a review written by our own Tom Christianson.

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We need a few more articles to complete Round 116 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $935,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. In 2023, we polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Please refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 116 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.