Our Black Swan Event – Part 1, by E.R.

The Black Swan is the metaphor often used when describing an unlikely event, that comes as a major surprise, having a catastrophic effect.

Which Risks Do We Attempt to Mitigate?

The news headlines in March, 2024 were rife with dire ‘official’ warnings of coming cyber attacks on water systems, echoing pronouncements previously made by that billionaires club and UN partner, The World Economic Forum, as the next big threat to follow the coronavirus. Was this yet more fear-mongering propaganda, or are they actually planning something?

Also in the news, that hard-left urban center Toronto is contemplating the introduction of a stormwater tax. In case you hadn’t yet heard – many local governments had already been collecting stormwater taxes for more than a decade. Why is this now news?

While it is hard to believe that it has been two years already, but most of us still recall the massive trucker protests across the continent in 2022 – protests which reverberated in copycat campaigns around the world. But why was it until winter 2024 that finally we are seeing reports of ‘hearings’ for protesters still in prison awaiting trial? And this, in that bastion of Canadian conservatism and freedom, Alberta – two years in prison without a trial for what will likely turn out to be trumped-up charges for political dissent?Continue reading“Our Black Swan Event – Part 1, by E.R.”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the investing aspect of the upcoming demise of gun-buying privacy in the United States. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Precious metals were up again Thursday evening (Friday morning, in Asia), on news of an Israeli retaliatory missile strike on Iran:

  • Gold
    $2,421.40 up $25.10 (1.04%)
  • Silver
    $28.87 up $0.35 (1.23%)
  • Platinum
    $961.30 up $2.80 (0.29%)

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Alasdair Macleod: The Bullish Factors Behind Silver’s Rise.

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Radomski, at Gold-Eagle.com: THE Reversal in Gold, THE Confirmed Breakout in USD/YEN.

Economy & Finance:

From Bloomberg: Larry Summers Says CPI Raises Chances That Fed’s Next Move Is to Hike.

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The Fed may have no choice but to tip the US into recession, economist says.

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Credit-Card Delinquency Rates Were Worst on Record in Fed Study.

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By way of Zero Hedge, I found this piece by Charles Hugh Smith: Financial Forecast 2025-2032: Please Don’t Be Naive. Here is a pericope:

“You already know the global financial system is untenable. In a nutshell, the expansion of production and consumption has been funded by the expansion of credit–money borrowed from future resources and income. The rate of expanding debt far surpasses the anemic rates of expanding production, and this rapidly expanding mountain of debt is perched precariously on the phantom collateral generated by The Everything Bubble, the astounding expansion of asset prices as those with the lowest cost access to credit have bid up every asset class, from real estate to gold to bitcoin to stocks to fine art.

All these assets are phantom collateral because they were bid up on the wings of cheap, abundant credit. History is rather decisive: all credit-asset bubbles pop, and the price of the assets round-trips back to pre-bubble valuations. As the bubble pops, credit shifts from being abundant and near-zero in cost to being scarce and dear.”

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We all saw this one coming: Labor group demands California’s $20 minimum wage for fast food workers extend to all sectors.Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — April 18, 2024

On April 18, 1775, British troops marched out of Boston on a mission to confiscate the American arsenal at Concord and to capture Patriot leaders Samuel Adams and John Hancock, known to be hiding at Lexington. As the British departed, Boston Patriots Paul Revere (pictured) and William Dawes set out on horseback from the city to warn Adams and Hancock and rouse the Minutemen.

The Doolittle Tokyo Raid was launched on April 18, 1942.

April 18th is the birthday of pastor and former Washington Representative Matt Shea. (Born 1974).

On April 18th, 1906, the San Francisco earthquake struck northern California, killing hundreds of people as it toppled numerous buildings and started fires that engulfed whole neighborhoods. The quake was so powerful that it knocked down chimneys in the Anderson Valley, 120 miles north of the city.

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We are now down to just 45 of the waterproof 2005-2023 SurvivalBlog Archive USB sticks. I’ve reduced the price on those remaining sticks to $28.95, to ensure that they sell out quickly. Consider this your last call until late January 2025, when the next edition should become available. There will be no more produced this year!

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Today we present a guest article that was too short to qualify as an entry for Round 112 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $875,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running the contest. In 2023, we polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 112 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

An Elderly Prepper Moves On, by L.T.

My husband and I started following the writings of Jim Rawles many years ago and his advice helped us find our ideal location in the Missouri Ozarks. Then, unexpectedly, my husband passed away and now Jonathan Rawles’ SurvivalRealty website is helping me sell my homestead. The tapestry of life.

My husband and I loved the challenge of creating a sustainable lifestyle, a productive homestead, and learning the rural life.  We took a piece of rather rough land and created a beautiful place. Not finished when he passed, but I’m not sure it would ever be finished, that was the enjoyable part. (Not an enjoyable part was living in a camper with four dogs while building our shop/house “shouse”.)Continue reading“An Elderly Prepper Moves On, by L.T.”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods. This column is a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from JWR. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats, and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. In today’s column, an estimate on full capacity magazine ownership.

700 Million+ Full Capacity Mags in Private Hands

Reader H.L. sent us this:  Americans Own 700 Million+ Mags With Greater Than 10-Round Capacity. JWR’s Comments:  That equates to just two magazines per citizen. Really? Based on the number of magazines that I own, my estimate of the number that my friends and neighbors own, and what I see available at gun shows, I believe that this published estimate is quite low. In fact, it is probably understated by at least half. And of course the NSSF data did not include the huge number of magazines released as military and police department surplus.  I’d estimate that there are actually 1.5 to 2 billion magazines now in private hands, here in the States. For further research, see the original NSSF report.

Be Prepared — The Grid Is Going Down

A few months ago, Tucker Carlson interviewed Dennis Quaid: Be Prepared. The Grid Is Going Down.

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — April 17, 2024

On April 17, 1970, the Apollo 13 command module—carrying James A. Lovell, Jr., Fred W. Haise, Jr., and John L. Swigert, Jr.—entered Earth‘s atmosphere and splashed down, ending one of the most tense chapters in space history; four days earlier an oxygen tank had exploded, threatening the lives of the three astronauts.

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On April 17, 1961, about 1,500 CIA-trained Cuban exiles launched the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in a failed attempt to overthrow the government of Fidel Castro. Due to the Cuba/Soviet intelligence network as well as loose talk by members of the brigade, which was repeated in US and foreign newspaper reports, the Cuban government knew, in advance, of the planned invasion. The Washington Post also reported that the Soviets knew the exact date of the attack, that the CIA was aware that they knew, and that the CIA did not inform President Kennedy.

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With the generosity of a sponsor, we’ve just added a new prize to the Second Place prize package for the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest:

A $200 credit from Military Surplus LLC that can be applied to purchase and/or shipping costs for any of their in-stock merchandise, including full mil-spec ammo cans, Rothco clothing and field gear, backpacks, optics, compact solar panels, first aid kits, and more.

They are adding new products every week. Take a look at their web page. And if you place an order, please thank them for being a SurvivalBlog writing contest sponsor.

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Today’s feature article is by SurvivalBlog feature article is by Senior Editor James Wesley, Rawles.

Reviving The Moribund 10th Amendment

One of the greatest strengths of our system of government is our Bill of Rights. The first 10 Amendments limit the power of the government. Though it is not perfect, this system has kept government in check, in several key spheres. The 10th Amendment is succinct, yet powerful.  It reads:

“The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

Sadly, the 10th Amendment has been degraded in the past 50 years by power-hungry statists. The American people are now over-taxed and over-regulated. The regulations penned by Congress are bad enough, but those emanating from international treaties, presidential executive orders, and decrees from unelected bureaucrats have become odious.  If our founding fathers were alive to see just how strong the Federal government has become, and how it encroaches into so many aspects of our lives, they would be horrified. Even the most strident Federalist of the 1780s would be shocked to see just how arbitrary and despotic our national government has become. The advent of the “alphabet soup” agencies since the 1930s has radically centralized the government’s power and subverted the rights of the states, and the rights of the citizenry.Continue reading“Reviving The Moribund 10th Amendment”

SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets

This weekly Snippets column is a collection of short items: responses to posted articles, practical self-sufficiency items, how-tos, lessons learned, tips and tricks, and news items — both from readers and from SurvivalBlog’s editors. Note that we may select some long e-mails for posting as separate letters.

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U.S. Navy Mocked for Photo of Commander With Rifle Scope Mounted Backwards. JWR’s Comments:  Perhaps the Navy should stick to their time-proven M14 deck rifles with iron sights. Thankfully, our potential opponents have much bigger guns and missiles to worry about, and the Navy handles those with deadly competency.

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I expect to hear the announcement of a Starlink satellite phone service, later this year: SpaceX: Cellular Starlink System Works on iPhone, Pixel, Galaxy Devices.

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Peter mentioned the free set of PDF files available at this web page:  USDA Complete Guide to Home Canning.  Peter included this note: “It would be nice if it was a single PDF, but the content is free.”

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets”

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — April 16, 2024

April 16, 1746: Battle of Culloden, the last battle on British soil: Royalist troops under the Duke of Cumberland defeat the Jacobite army of Charles Edward Stuart. The Jacobite Rising — which began a year before — was an attempt by Charles Edward Stuart to regain the British throne for his father, James Francis Edward Stuart.

April 16th is the birthday of two notable novelists– the late J. Neil Schulman (pictured) and Samuel Youd.

Agorist-Libertarian activist J. Neil Schulman (born April 16, 1953, died 2019) was best known as author of the novel Alongside Night.

The late Samuel Youd (born 1922, died February 3, 2012) was the British novelist who was best known for his science fiction writings under the pseudonym John Christopher, including the survivalist novel Death of Grass (titled No Blade of Grass, in the American edition) as well as the Tripods Series of young adult sci-fi novel series. A fascinating man, Youd wrote prolifically, using eight pen names. He was a good friend of sci-fi novelist John Wyndham, and both of them were famous for writing what are often called “cozy catastrophes”.

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We are seeking entries for Round 112 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $875,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. In 2023, we polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 112 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Upcoming ATF Rule Will Ban Most Private Gun Sales

The ATF’s new re-definition of “Engaged in the Business” of selling firearms is expected to go into effect on or about May 15th. The ATF’s Final Rulemaking was announced on April 8, 2024.  Ignoring the weight of public comment, and ignoring logic, this new set of rules (see text at the ATF website) could make advertising and selling just one gun at a profit without a FFL a felony criminal offense.  Even worse, it shifts the burden of proof from the government to individuals. In effect, you will be assumed to be guilty unless you can prove that you made no profit. Given the ongoing onslaught of currency inflation, just breaking even after allowing for inflation could be deemed a “profit”.

This new rule, which is 466-pages long, stems from the passage of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (BSCA), which broadened the definition of when someone is considered “engaged in the business”. Creepy Joe Biden signed this law on June 25, 2022. By abusing Chevron deference, the ATF’s minions then created this 466-page monstrosity, to wildly extrapolate just 73 words from the 1968 Gun Control Act into this lengthy set of rules.Continue reading“Upcoming ATF Rule Will Ban Most Private Gun Sales”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, an examination of the much-publicized  “Idaho ISIS” case. (See the Idaho section.)

Idaho

FBI arrests Idaho 18-year-old for ‘violent plot’ to attack churches on behalf of ISIS, Justice Department says. (A hat tip to reader C.B. for the link.)

  • Charging documents are here.
  • This article has some relevant details from the document.
  • J.M., a SurvivalBllog reader from the CDA area also wrote to mention: “An FBI informant drove the kid to the hardware store to get a pipe and butane cylinders, and took the photo of him in front of the ISIS flag.”
  • Idaho ISIS suspect’s arrest highlights how ‘crypto is increasingly popular’ with extremist groups, expert says.  [The statist mainstream media never misses an opportunity to denigrate [private cryptocurrencies.]
  • The three FBI informants were driving this delusional and impressionable kid around, because he didn’t have a driver’s license!  They also provided him the ISIS flag. This is as close to a “manufactured terrorism conspiracy” as you can get. When three of the four conspirators are paid FBI informants, it is almost surely a set-up. I’ll be curious to learn if any of the three FBI informants plotted with the suspect before he turned 18. – JWR

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Supreme Court lets Idaho enforce its ban on gender treatments for minors.

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MARVEL: Idaho National Laboratory’s first nuclear reactor in 50 years.

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85-Year-Old Mom With .357 Magnum Kills Intruder to Save Her Disabled Son.

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A young north Idaho couple demonstrates what can be accomplished with Sweat Equity on a hillside parcel, with a stringent budget: Idaho Mountain Homestead: 3 Year Update.

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“We like market research because it provides certainty – a score, a prediction; if someone asks us why we made the decision we did, we can point to a number. But the truth is that for the most important decisions, there can be no certainty.” – Malcolm Gladwell