Making The Hard Decisions Somewhat Easier- Part 3, by Old Bobbert

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We are in the midst of the third example in our consideration of making hard decisions whether to go or not go in a crisis situation. I am using scenarios to illustrate the decision processes.

Scenario #3: Small Town, Patriotic Family (continued)

This time we are looking at a small town, patriotic family that works together to run an Internet-based business from home. Let’s get to know them and their circumstances in this scenario better.

Work and Finances

The sons were taught by example to work hard and to be a deliberate saver first and only then to be a spender. Henry, the father, worked diligently at being aware of the ever-changing twists and turnings of the financial markets as a regular part of his work. Those efforts to stay aware of market trends for the book re-sale business also created an important point of knowledge concerning alertness toward national and area potential SHTF situations. Being preparedness minded was a daily condition through the entire family.

The Community

When Chicago followed New York and Washington into the sudden power outage darkness, Henry and Mom became very concerned. Their little (imaginary) town of Masonville, Utah was considered to be top level, semi-rural good living. The community college was basically a solidly conservative bastion of so-called over-achievers who were mostly believers in strong moral values with a strong dash of country style, common sense, and good ethics to boot.

The college student community was a growing good source of quality used books to buy for resale, and of students who needed his good quality used books. Most of their neighbors had been raised to put up stores and things for future usage.  They spoke the “be prepared” language  to children and to one another.

Sincere preparedness and charity to the needy was generally a community way of life. Being a college town made the national news a regular conversation topic, especially when the terrorists were thought to be responsible for the current power grid shutdowns.

Continue reading“Making The Hard Decisions Somewhat Easier- Part 3, by Old Bobbert”

Letter: Surviving California’s Fires

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Hugh,

I live in a house that has a commanding view of a very large canyon in Southern California. Last Thursday night at 11:20 p.m., I received a mandatory evacuation order on my cell phone and on my TV. I could see the sky lit brightly to the east of the canyon, but I judged the fire to be approaching slowly enough that I had time to gather things. I turned on my sprinkler system and tried to give my property a good soaking so as to increase the chances of avoiding destruction.

It was a “hybrid bug out.” I didn’t have to run for the car or pickup in order to evacuate with only a bug out bag, and I didn’t have a day or more to load up a trailer. I used what time I had to gather personal items, such as photographs, mementos, and important documents. I tried to select items that could not be replaced, or which were not going to be covered by insurance.

I found myself suffering from “decisional fatigue,” that is, there were just so many choices to be made that I simply stopped making them. I realized later that I should have and could have taken many more items than I did.

The Santa Ana winds were howling and were driving cinders and embers everywhere. Gusts of up to 60 mph were reported by the media. I had the feeling that I was part of “The Last Days of Pompeii.”

Continue reading“Letter: Surviving California’s Fires”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on exotic ammo. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

 

Precious Metals:

David Morgan: Market Has “Given Up” On Silver, So What’s Next?

o  o  o

Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold As UK Government In Turmoil Over Brexit

o  o  o

Silver Price, The SPX And Sanity

 

Economy & Finance:

I missed this article when it ran last month: Trade tensions could trigger another global financial crisis, but investors appear complacent, IMF says. (Just keep in mind the agendas of both the IMF and CNBC.)

o o o

The economic effects of Brexit: Evidence from the stock market

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Naked Capitalism: As the Fed Tightens, Where Will the Credit Crunch Pinch First?

 

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Having over 40% of all the money in the market being managed by computers gives a huge boost to returns during a bull market. But when the selling starts, computers don’t think. Their algorithms will automatically sell and flash crashes will abound. Once fear replaces greed, the wave of computer selling will overwhelm those trying to actively manage their portfolios. Then the record level of margin debt will result in margin calls and a further wave of selling. The clueless 401k investor will see their retirement savings sliced by 40% in the blink of an eye.

It’s not a matter of if, but when the tsunami of selling will make the 2008 crisis look like a walk in the park. There are numerous other potential triggers which could cause or exacerbate the next financial crisis. Excess leverage always creates catastrophe. When you have $8 trillion of emerging market debt, a rising dollar, rising interest rates, and record low risk premiums, the fuse on the fireworks has already been lit.

We know the 2008 crisis was primarily driven by the implosion of subprime mortgage debt and derivatives of mass destruction tied to those mortgages. Talking heads on CNBC and spokes-models on Bloomberg are nonchalant about record high home prices because the amount of subprime mortgages is much lower than 2008. What they fail to acknowledge is the immense issuance of subprime auto, credit card, corporate, and student loan debt to borrowers incapable of repaying that debt.” – Jim Quinn, in his The Burning Platform blog

Preparedness Notes for Thursday – November 15, 2018

On this day, Charles Dickens published the final installment of A Tale of Two Cities in Dickens’ circular.

o o o

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today features another entry for Round 79 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $11,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A gift certificate for any two or three-day class from Max Velocity Tactical (a $600 value),
  4. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  5. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 79 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Making The Hard Decisions Somewhat Easier- Part 2, by Old Bobbert

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Okay, we are at the second example in our consideration of making hard decisions whether to go or not go in a crisis situation. I am using scenarios to illustrate the decision processes. This time we will be looking at bugging out from a large, suburban, bedroom-type community.

Scenario 2: Family From Suburban Community

You will have the same sort of general circumstances that were prevalent in our first example above, except with these two differences. First, you still have three kids, but they are all teens and all boys. Their ages are seventeen, fifteen, and fourteen. The second difference is the big one– you’re the stay-at-home, very talented “Mom”.

Dad works at the family’s commercial property management business, with offices near to your neighborhood, where he is the senior managing partner. His two brothers are his junior partners and are earnestly learning to survive that very competitive business environment as mid-level area managers. Again it’s the same Tuesday at ten in the morning. Your teens are in school, and you and Dad are both watching the news and growing very concerned.

The Alert Announcement and Exit Plan

You are on full alert after an announcement that both metro New York  and the D.C. capitol are both shut down totally with a full blown area wide power grid outage situation. Your west side suburban St. Louis area is a very densely populated, residential, upper mid-level income area. The two of you are in full agreement that you are fast moving toward a pre-planned decision to gather up the immediate family and bug-out to your parent’s home in western, rural, central Missouri. It is an easy four-hour trip but possibly longer if you delay your ideal exit-town schedule. Your earlier estimates of timing ran nearly four hours for a daytime weekday hasty leaving exit. The boys are very involved and are fully aware that exit knowledge security is a paramount item.

Continue reading“Making The Hard Decisions Somewhat Easier- Part 2, by Old Bobbert”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “HJL”. Amazon Echo is at the center of a Murder trial as evidence now.

Modern Nomads

A growing segment of America is redefining what a nomadic lifestyle is. CBS news recently ran a new special on this. Upwards of one million Americans are now embracing a modern nomadic lifestyle where the home and property has been sold or rented out and the family now lives and travels in an RV. The article referenced suggests that those people feel that the open road lifestyle has made them happier and improved their marriages. Certainly, they don’t have the same battles over property taxes and other things that most American’s deal with. With homeschooling so available, this can be a lifestyle even for young families.

Saving Your Home

Yahoo has an article on a man who chose to fight for his home rather than evacuate in Paradise, California. Egged on by his 90 year-old mother who refused to evacuate and armed with garden hoses and buckets of water from a swimming pool, he and his mother’s home health aide battled flames all day Thursday and into the night. It should be noted that this was not his first fire and he had some experience at dealing with it. He was able to save his home while those around him lost theirs. I noticed in the article that the description of the properties surrounding him suggested that may have played into the problem. There were apparently lots of flammable things around the properties and right next to homes.

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“The corollary, from the first position, is, that ‘the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.’ The prohibition is general. No clause in the Constitution could by any rule of construction be conceived to give to congress a power to disarm the people. Such a flagitious attempt could only be made under some general pretense by a state legislature. But if in any blind pursuit of inordinate power, either should attempt it, this amendment may be appealed to as a restraint on both.” – William Rawle, in his textbook A View of the The Constitution, 1825.

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday – November 14, 2018

On November 14th, 1985, the Nevado del Ruiz Volcano erupted in Colombia, killing over 20,000 as nearby towns are buried in mud, ice and lava. Scientist studying the volcano believed an eruption was imminent and had recommended an evacuation of the area which was largely ignored, resulting in the high number of casualties.

o o o

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today features another entry for Round 79 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $11,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A gift certificate for any two or three-day class from Max Velocity Tactical (a $600 value),
  4. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  5. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 79 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Making The Hard Decisions Somewhat Easier- Part 1, by Old Bobbert

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Being fully aware of the contest rules concerning fiction, this essay topic has required an ample supply of assumed acceptable standards and examples for one simple over-riding truth– world wide, there is a single commonality factor about everyone who has been forced by circumstances to actually put into real-time practice their go/no go decision. That common event generally fits into a very limited non-nationwide problem. We have experienced some very serious terrible events in some areas of the country but not a nationwide anything.

The recent calamity of the flooding of the Texas coast did not affect other areas in any measurable ways, Yes, the price of petroleum products will go up for a while but not much else. Some single purpose imaginary work in creating this offering seemed to be fully justified and very necessary.

Major Safety Decision Factors That Usually Come Hard

Let’s start with a short list of some of the major safety decision factors that usually come hard for most of us most of the time. We will look into three examples, based of a few separate groups of general circumstances. The first group is bugging out from a city situation. Next would be bugging out from a large suburban, bedroom-type community, and third would be bugging out from a small town about a hundred miles from the nearest major large city and very near an interstate highway.

Continue reading“Making The Hard Decisions Somewhat Easier- Part 1, by Old Bobbert”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on the Chinese Debt Bubble. (See the Global Economy & Finance section.

 

Precious Metals:

Gold/Silver Ratio Hits 25-Year High; Silver Underperforms. “Comex December silver on Tuesday bottomed at $13.92, the contract’s weakest level since 2016.” JWR’s Comment:  This sounds like a genuine dip point though probably not a full bottom, and a signal to buy.  Perhaps this is more of an opportunity to ratio trade out of gold and into silver.

o  o  o

TDS: Gold Break Below $1,190 Could Trigger More Selling

 

 

Global Economy & Finance (Chinese Debt Bubble):

The Chinese debt bubble has reached absurd proportions. Their bubble reeks of malinvestment. There are now some 50 million unoccupied apartments in China. That is one fifth of the nation’s apartments. Every major Chinese city has districts filled with apartments building that have never been occupied. The apartment building contractors are kept constantly busy, fueled by ballooning debt. The $28 Billion USD equivalent Three Gorges Dam Project is nearly complete — paid for with debt.  And now the $1.2 Trillion “One Belt, One Road” infrastructure project is in full swing. Again, it is being paid for with debt. Some fools as far away as France are financing it. According to S&P, China local governments’ hidden debt could total $5.8 trillion.

This is what happens when a command-driven communist economy supposedly transitions to free market economics. The problem is that the Central Planning commissars are still calling the shots. They just call themselves capitalists now. Old School diktat is still the order of the day. There are already signs that the Chinese debt bubble is deflating. Just observe the Chinese stock market. There have already been $5 Trillion in losses, across Asia. Take a look at this Shanghai chart site, and click on the 5 Year view. Yikes! And that could be just the first stage of collapse. It is absurd to think that a further implosion won’t be felt world-wide. The now unfolding Asian Contagion may herald a global depression that will last a decade or longer.

o o o

I can foresee that the practical limits of “fiscal stimulus” will quickly be reached in China. Since the nation was already saddled in debt, the current stimulus schemes are likely to collapse in less than a year. Chinese government officials will probably try to continue the charade, but at some point the Forex value of the Yuan will collapse. This, in my estimation, will be the trigger for full scale implosion of the Chinese stock markets, housing, car sales, and consumer spending. One almost certain consequence will be a subsequent global drop in commodities prices. Once China is taken out of the equation, commodities will soon have a lot more supply than demand. It will be at that point that platinum will finally bottom.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:

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Here are JWR’s Recommendations of the Week for various media and tools of interest to SurvivalBlog readers. This week the focus is on Replacing Broken Tool Handles. (See the Instructional Videos section.)

Books:

Winter in the Wilderness: A Field Guide to Primitive Survival Skills

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The Glorious Adventure: Through the Mediterranean in the Wake of Odysseus. Halliburton’s classic travel book. “‘The Glorious Adventure’ was Halliburton’s second book, and details how he set out to follow in the path of Ulysses, as described in the Odyssey. The resultant book does not have a dull page. It details how Halliburton roamed the Mediterranean Sea searching for adventure and romance, both of which he was happy to report were still in abundant supply.”

o  o  o

Pilgrim’s Progress

 

Movies & Television:

Courageous

o  o  o

The Lord of the Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy (The Fellowship of the Ring / The Two Towers / The Return of the King) (Extended Edition)

 

Continue reading“JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:”

Going Ghost: Planning for a Low Profile Mobile Lifestyle

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A number of my friends and consulting clients have begun talking about making contingency plans to drop entirely off the grid. One of them calls it “going ghost.” His goal: Being ready for a time of repression that would require him to drop off the radar–to essentially become mobile and invisible to authorities. He said that he wanted to have two options: 1.) In CONUS, being ready and ablrice to blend in and travel by road fairly anonymously, and 2.) being ready and able to travel internationally (OCONUS).

This whole concept of “going ghost” would be daunting for most of us. It is one thing to stop using any credit cards and cease accessing the Internet, but it is quite another to completely vanish. Anyone with a large family, and anyone living from paycheck to paycheck would find this nearly impossible. For many, just the stress of being out of contact with family and friends would be substantial. There would be many challenges. Most notably, traveling costs money–lots of money. When away from hearth, home, and garden nearly every aspect of life comes with a price tag attached. Every meal and every night’s lodging comes with a cost. And of course the larger your traveling party, the higher the cost. Granted, traveling solo can be done fairly inexpensively. But imagine the cost of keeping family of seven quietly on the move!

So this leaves us with our first dilemma: Travel on a shoestring budget.

Continue reading“Going Ghost: Planning for a Low Profile Mobile Lifestyle”