Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look eBay items –that is, the things to look for, to re-sell. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

What Happens When Gold Stocks Diverge From The Bullion

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Silver Demand Hit A 3-Year High In 2018 – World Silver Survey . A snippet: “People are turning to silver because of its huge price divergent with gold. The gold-silver ratio is ridiculously high and is not sustainable, it’s just a question of when the ratio comes down.”

Economy & Finance:

Fed officials are leaving the door open for more rate hikes if the economy improves, minutes say. Here is a key quote from their meeting minutes: “A majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year.”  JWR’s Comments:  A stable Fed funds rate, coupled with continued unwinding of the Fed’s QE assets will probably mean a recession will begin in late 2019. They are surely hoping for a Soft Landing, but I doubt that they will get it. Given the huge overhang and malinvestment of the current boom (the longest economic expansion in modern times), this upcoming recession will probably be long and deep. Position yourself for that!

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The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Recession is coming. We can debate the timing, but the economy will turn decisively downward at some point. My own analysis, looking at the data available on April 4, says recession isn’t likely this year but unfortunately looks very probable in 2020.

In addition to when it will happen, there’s also the question of how deep the next recession will be. A shallow downturn wouldn’t be fun, but compared to the last one might feel relatively refreshing.

Alas, I don’t think we will be that lucky. I think the opposite: The next recession will be deeper, longer and far more painful to many more people than your average recession, and could persist as long as the last one. That is because the next recession in all likelihood will be truly global. If you sailed through 2007–2009 without your lifestyle changing, I wouldn’t assume it will happen that way again.

Ironically, but not surprisingly, it will be the response to the last recession that makes the next one so much worse. Part of the reason is that investors once again “learned” that if you simply stay the course, the market will get you back to where you were and more. The massive move into low-fee index investing instead of active management will make the next recession more painful.

You must understand that 75% of today’s wealth is in the hands of retirees and pre-retirees. Most have a significant portion of their money in index funds, and they’re going to see significant erosion of their retirement assets. I’m thinking especially of those depending on public pensions, which are heavily weighted to a form of index investing. Public pensions are already significantly underfunded (in general) and a bear market will make them even more so. It will be painful and I can assure you it will cause a lot of political angst.” – John Mauldin

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — April 16, 2019

April 16th is the birthday of two notable novelists– J. Neil Schulman and Samuel Youd.

Agorist-Libertarian activist J. Neil Schulman (born April 16, 1953) is best known as author of the novel Alongside Night.

The late Samuel Youd (born 1922, died February 3, 2012) was the British novelist who was best known for his science fiction writings under the pseudonym John Christopher, including the survivalist novel Death of Grass (titled No Blade of Grass, in the American edition) as well as the Tripods Series of young adult sci-fi novel series. A fascinating man, Youd wrote prolifically, using eight pen names. He was a good friend of sci-fi novelist John Wyndham, and both of them were famous for writing what are often called “cozy catastrophes.”

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 82  of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The more than $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  2. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  3. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  4. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  5. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  6. An assortment of products along with a one hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances.

Round 82 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Raising Poultry in the Rocky Mountain West, by WyoDutch

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My wife and I operate a pastured poultry business in Northwest Wyoming at an altitude 6,000 feet. I grew up on a poultry farm back when everything was pastured and organic. Things were simpler then… the weak, fast growing commercial birds had not yet been developed, and we didn’t have to contend with many of the exotic diseases that international trade has brought to the American farm.

For a breeding flock of 75 turkeys plus a chicken operation, we have a total of six acres devoted to pens and pastures. Our land is high desert with no supplemental irrigation. Years of previous owners running horses on the land had destroyed everything but salt sage and prickly pear. Working with the local Extension Agent, we selected native grasses, trees and shrubs that do well in our dry, alkaline soil. We had our well tested under the Montana Well Educated program (operated by Montana State University) which gave us detailed information on our water. We learned for example, that high salinity and dissolved solids rendered our well water unusable for irrigation and only marginal for livestock use. We got around this problem by purchasing and hauling water from the nearest community water treatment plant.

Continue reading“Raising Poultry in the Rocky Mountain West, by WyoDutch”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

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Here is SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt. This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. We also mention companies of interest to preppers that are located in the region. Today, we focus on whitetail deer and their habitat.

Region-Wide

The latest video from The Bard Of The American Redoubt is a “must watch”:  Never Ending Threat of Civil War — A response.

Idaho

Watching the whitetail. The article begins:

“Researchers at the Idaho Department of Fish and Game are trying to get a better understanding of the relationship between whitetail deer and predators in northern Idaho.

The project is tied to a larger study on predator and prey relationships throughout the state, said Mark Hurley, wildlife research manager for the department at Boise. Although the impact that wolves, mountain lions and black bears have on elk herds gets most of the attention from both game managers and hunters when it comes to predator and prey relationships, Hurley said agency officials believe abundant whitetail deer may be key to understanding the way in which all the species interact.

‘Whitetail populations drive a lot of the predator populations because there are more whitetail than anything else,” he said. “We are trying to figure out how predators use whitetail deer and how that impacts other ungulate like elk.'”

o o o

Families stranded, road crews stretched thin as Idaho battles flood waters

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Idaho man with punctured lung found in wilderness, one of 3 rescues in 2 days

 

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The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”.  Today, we focus on Measles Vaccinations.

Arson at Notre Dame?

The tragic fire at the 850 year-old Notre Dame Cathedral immediately raised questions about arson. We can’t help but be reminded of the attack two years ago: Cell of French women guided by Isis behind failed Notre Dame attack. The French media quickly sent out “police say fire began accidentally and may be linked to building work at cathedral…” announcements. Only time (and Le Arson Inspector Clouseaus) will tell us the full story.

Army to Deploy Advanced Thermal Night Vision Gear

G.P. sent this: A unit will soon deploy with the newest night vision devices that can take troops from ‘marksman to expert’.  Here is a quote:

“The key marksmanship feature is the addition of the Family of Weapons Sights-Individual and Rapid Targeting Acquisition. Demonstrated to Military Times in early 2017, the system uses a wireless connection between a rifle-mounted camera and the goggle to give the shooter a clear, focused, video-fed sight picture.

Shooters can choose between full goggle view, full weapons sights view or a picture-in-picture mode that allows them to see both views at once.

That means a soldier or Marine can fire from the hip about as accurately as from the shouldered position at close ranges. They can also fire around corners or other obstacles without exposing themselves.

The thermal capabilities of the ENVG-B let troops see through dust, fog, smoke and other obscurants and select from black, white-hot or white-outlined features for thermal vision.

This capability going to armored brigade soldiers later this year, and Marines soon to follow, is one iteration of a larger project still under development that would add even more features in the coming years.”

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:”

Preparedness Notes for Monday — April 15, 2019

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April 15th, 1912, is the anniversary of the sinking of the “unsinkable” Titanic. 1,517 people lost their lives on the maiden voyage. As research into the incident has progressed over the last 100 years, it seems as if, one way or another, the ship was just going to sink. Impact with an iceberg, raging coal fires in the fuel supply, wrong turns, locked-up binoculars, weak rivets, too few lifeboats, and more. Perhaps this whole incident was really the result of man’s hubris.

Zero Tolerance 0393 Folder, by Pat Cascio

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“Zero Tolerance” is a bold name for any company. This is a knife company is actually a division of famed Kershaw Knives. Today we’re looking at their ZT0393 model folder.

I don’t care who you are, or what you make, when you name your company “Zero Tolerance” the consumers expect nothing less than perfection in your products – all your products. That’s a tough claim to live up to. However, when we’re talking about knives, it is a very bold step to imply that your products are made to perfection, and without flaw.

Many years ago, I used to collect – and design – custom knives. I’m no knife maker. I tried my hand at it, and its tough drawing a straight line with a ruler. However, I can make my thoughts come out on a piece of paper, where a knife company or custom knife maker can bring my ideas to fruition. I sold off all my custom knives many years ago, even the ones I designed and had made for me but several custom knife makers. Of course, I regret letting those knives go, that I designed.

Today, many custom knife makers make use of CNC machines and other equipment to manufacture their knives – just like the big name knife companies do. In the past, custom knife makers did most of their work free-hand on custom knives. And, many of those knives had some small flaws or defects – you had to look closely to spot them, though. Yet, it didn’t distract from the fact that, your knife was one of a kind, if was made by a custom knife maker. One thing that bothered me back in the day, was that, many knife makers simply couldn’t put a halfway decent edge on their knives – how very odd that was. You paid $600 for a custom knife, and when you got it, it had a tough time slicing through a piece of paper. I guess a lot of people simply collected custom knives, and never used them. Not me!

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Recipe of the Week: Gomma’s Mushroom Chicken in Sherry

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This was an old a Rawles family favorite.

Ingredients
  • 4 Large Chicken Breasts, skinless (or substitute 6 small skinless breasts.)
  • 1 Can Cream of Mushroom Soup
  • 1 C Sour Cream
  • 1/2 C Cooking Sherry
  • 8 Ounces Sliced Mushrooms
  • Paprika, to taste.
Directions
  • Put Chicken in a large, lightly-greased rectangular baking dish.
  • Mix together the soup, sour cream, mushrooms and sherry, in a large bowl. Then pour over the chicken breasts. Sprinkle with paprika.
  • Bake uncovered at 375 F for 1 hour to 1-1/2 hours, until juices run clear.
Notes and Serving Suggestions

I usually serve this over a bed of steamed rice. Typically, we also serve it with a steamed vegetable side dish.

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Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? Please send it via e-mail. Thanks!

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we focus on investing in discontinued Glock 19C pistols. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Just as I predicted, the super-heated spot price of Palladium has broken down.  Never buy at the top, folks!

o  o  o

Would Gold Rocket In The Event Of A Fiat Currency Collapse?

Global Economy & Finance:

UK-Based Multinational Department Store Debenhams Collapses, After 200 Years of Trading. Here is a key quote:

“Shares of UK-based multinational department store Debenhams — with 165 stores in the UK and Ireland and with 58 franchise stores in 19 other countries — were suspended today after the company and its creditors turned down two last ditch rescue offers from discount retail group Sports Direct, which owns close to 30% of Debenhams’ stock. Debenham’s shares have collapsed spectacularly since they were floated on the stock market in 2006 by its then-private equity owners, Texas Pacific Group, CVC, and Merrill Lynch Private Equity:

The latest rejection means that Debenhams, after gracing British high streets for over 200 years, now faces a “pre-pack” administration that will wipe out its shareholders, including Sports Direct which is estimated to have plowed at least £150 million into the firm.”

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Tom Chatham: Why Are American Communities Dying? This adds credence to my assertion that starting a small manufacturing business in your community derives “multiple gains.”

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Sentiment Speaks: If TLT Rises, The Fed May Lower Rates

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The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“The NSA has built an infrastructure that allows it to intercept almost everything. With this capability, the vast majority of human communications are automatically ingested without targeting. If I wanted to see your emails or your wife’s phone, all I have to do is use intercepts. I can get your emails, passwords, phone records, credit cards. I don’t want to live in a society that does these sort of things… I do not want to live in a world where everything I do and say is recorded. That is not something I am willing to support or live under.” – Edward Snowden, as quoted in The Guardian

S.A.’s Book Review: The Bunker

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A Review of The Bunker: Surviving an Economic Collapse by Wayne Bosak

MORE REALISTIC THAN MOST

Finally, an apocalyptic book that shows a truer picture of human nature than any other that I’ve read. My belief is that the world is full of good people, and not everyone with a can of Mountain House is a bloodthirsty gunslinger.

In the novel The Bunker: Surviving an Economic Collapse, by Wayne Bosak, the main characters are, of course, trying to get home. They encounter many normal people who give them shelter and aid. Sure, there are the usual gangs, looters, and murderers who get put down. But rural people are correctly portrayed, at least where I live, as open and generous.

I like end-of-the-world books, but often most other ones  are unreadable due to poor editing. While only finding a few errors in this one, it was not to the point of being distracting.

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The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods:

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SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”.  Today, we focus on vehicular data and tracking.

The GPS Granny Nanny

Auto expert and commentator Eric Peters penned this: The GPS Granny Nanny.

Who Owns Vehicular Data?

At Roll Call: Your car is watching you. Who owns the data? The article start out with this:

“If you’re driving a late model car or truck, chances are that the vehicle is mostly computers on wheels, collecting and wirelessly transmitting vast quantities of data to the car manufacturer not just on vehicle performance but personal information, too, such as your weight, the restaurants you visit, your music tastes and places you go.

A car can generate about 25 gigabytes of data every hour and as much as 4,000 gigabytes a day, according to some estimates. The data trove in the hands of car makers could be worth as much as $750 billion by 2030, the consulting firm McKinsey has estimated. But consumer groups, aftermarket repair shops and privacy advocates say the data belongs to the car’s owners and the information should be subject to data privacy laws. Yet Congress has yet to pass comprehensive federal data privacy legislation.”

Campus Radicalism is Not New

Some interesting reading, by Daniel Pipes: Harvard’s Communist Uprising, 50 Years Later.  JWR’s Comment: The frightening thought is that the radicals of this generation who settled into academic lives are now considered “stodgy old people with white privilege” and “insufficiently activist.”
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