Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at prospects for a digital Euro currency and a new Digital Dollar..

Precious Metals:

The past week has been a rollercoaster ride for silver, gold, and platinum. On Monday, September 21st, the price of silver broke down 9%. It got as low $22.55 on September 25th. But this morning it was back up to 23.33. This level of volatility in silver and gold can be frightening. But we need to step back and look at the big picture. Here is some long-term perspective: Golden Bulls: Visualizing the Price of Gold from 1915-2020.

And always remember this: Gold and silver are not becoming “more valuable”.  The “rising price” of commodities merely reflects the U.S. Dollar gradually becoming worthless.

o  o  o

Is The COMEX Fudging Physical Delivery Data?

o  o  o

Despite Mint Closures, Silver Bullion Sales Surge Past 2019 Numbers

Economy & Finance:

At Seeking Alpha: Barclays sees valuations at dot-com bubble levels, cuts megacaps

o  o  o

Martin W. Armstrong: Leaked files Expose $2.7 trillion Money Laundering by Big Banks

o  o  o

Wolf Street reports: Hit from All Sides, European Bank Stocks Swoon to 1988 Low

o  o  o

“He Needs Cash”: Ron Perelman’s Leveraged Empire Collapses In A Deluge Of Fire Sales

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“That the house of every one is to him as his Castle and Fortress as well for defence against injury and violence, as for his repose; and although the life of man is precious and favoured in law; so that although a man kill another in his defence, or kill one per infortuntun’ (by misfortune), without any intent, yet it is felony, and in such case he shall forfeit his goods and chattels, for the great regard which the law hath of a mans life; But if theeves come to a mans house to rob him, or murder, and the owner or his servants kill any of the theeves in defence of himself and his house, it is no felony, and he shall lose nothing, and therewith agreeth 3 Edw. 3. Coron. 303, & 305. & 26 Ass. pl. 23. So it is holden in 21 Hen. 7. 39. every one may assemble his friends or neighbours to defend his house against violence: But he cannot assemble them to goe with him to the Market or elsewhere to keep him from violence: And the reason of all the same is, because domus sua cuique est tutissimum refugium. [Everyone’s house is his safest refuge.]” – Sir Edward Coke, 1604

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — September 27, 2020

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This is the birthday of Samuel Adams (not counting the change in dates due to the change from the Julian calendar to the Gregorian calendar). He was an American statesman, political philosopher, and one of the Founding Fathers of the United States.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 90 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (a $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  4. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  5. An assortment of products along with a one-hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum-sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Round 90 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Geopolitics: How Maps Help Us Understand History, Predict the Future – Pt. 2, by Brian Miller

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(Continued from Part 1.  This concludes the article.)

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Geopolitics, Social Darwinism, State Survival, and “Lebensraum”

These histories serve as a simplified starting point for understanding geopolitics, and the types of influences that are embedded in the concept. With state sovereignty came the dominant understanding that a state’s purpose was that of survival. Said differently, states were seen to always be in competition with different states.

In the late 19th century, Charles Darwin’s theory of natural selection was being applied by scholars to the study of societies (Social Darwinism). German geographer, Friedrich Ratzel, applied Darwin’s natural selection theory to state sovereignty (particularly Germany), and together the concept became known as the “Organic Theory of the State.”

The foundation of Ratzel’s theory was that states interact with different states through the “survival of the fittest” perspective, and that a state must grow through territorial expansion in order to thrive.

The implementation of this theory had a particular consequence. Ratzel’s theory of state survival is said to have legitimized “continual war of all against all, as each country must seek the path of the least resistance to territorial expansion and must simultaneously defend its territory at all costs.”

The term “geopolitics” was coined by Swedish political scientist Rudolf Kjellen (a student of Ratzel’s) in 1899, and inspired an intellectual movement between German and Scandinavian scholars. This movement, supported by the “science” of geopolitics, resulted in a veneer of legitimacy that a state, and its nation, should be viewed as combined elements that together produce a stronger effect.

Ratzel envisioned the nation and state relationship as a “super-organism” whose strength was determined by the size of its territory, population, and the availability of natural resources. Ratzel further published The Sea as a Source of Greatness of a People in 1901, and identified ways in which the land and sea provide opportunity for expansion. This work introduced the concept “Lebensraum,” translated to mean “living space,” which argued that stronger states would naturally take territory and resources from weaker states.

Prior to World War I, Ratzel and Kjellen’s work contributed to the idea that Germany was the “land of geographers,” as German universities were among the first to teach geography. This renewed interest, supported by such geopolitical theories, positioned geography as the “god’s eye view” of how the world “really” worked.

The Nazi Connection: Geopolitk and Hitler’s “Mein Kampf”

The relationship between geopolitics and the rise of the Nazi party is accredited to political geographer Karl Haushofer. Prior to Haushofer’s career in “Geopolitik,” he was active German military who spent time in Japan studying their armed forces between 1908 and 1910. Haushofer’s interaction with both military officials and scholars during that time would later be accredited to the rise of geopolitical institutions in Japan during the 1920s and 1930s. His influence would also stretch as far as South America.

Following World War I, Haushofer retired as a major general in 1919, and took a professor position teaching geography at the University of Munich. Haushofer, like Ratzel before him, believed that German greatness was dependent upon Lebensraum:

“If the state was to prosper rather than just survive, the acquisition of ‘living space,’ particularly in the East, was vital and moreover achievable with the help of potential allies such as Italy and Japan.”

According to Haushofer, if Germany was to grow into a world power, and rebound from the losses of the WWI defeat, its leadership would need to be thoughtful of five essential elements:

  • Physical location
  • Resources
  • Territory
  • Morphology
  • Population

Haushofer’s own geopolitical theories promoted the concept of “pan regions,” which argued that Germany and other state powers, such as Japan, should develop distinct geopolitical strategies that focus on separate regions. To do so was to carve up the map and become neighbors in world domination rather than interfering within each state’s territory of interest. For Haushofer, his geopolitical focus was to the East and Africa.Continue reading“Geopolitics: How Maps Help Us Understand History, Predict the Future – Pt. 2, by Brian Miller”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“He that overcometh, the same shall be clothed in white raiment; and I will not blot out his name out of the book of life, but I will confess his name before my Father, and before his angels.

“He that hath an ear, let him hear what the Spirit saith unto the churches.

“And to the angel of the church in Philadelphia write; These things saith he that is holy, he that is true, he that hath the key of David, he that openeth, and no man shutteth; and shutteth, and no man openeth;

“I know thy works: behold, I have set before thee an open door, and no man can shut it: for thou hast a little strength, and hast kept my word, and hast not denied my name.

Behold, I will make them of the synagogue of Satan, which say they are Jews, and are not, but do lie; behold, I will make them to come and worship before thy feet, and to know that I have loved thee.

Because thou hast kept the word of my patience, I also will keep thee from the hour of temptation, which shall come upon all the world, to try them that dwell upon the earth.

Behold, I come quickly: hold that fast which thou hast, that no man take thy crown.

Him that overcometh will I make a pillar in the temple of my God, and he shall go no more out: and I will write upon him the name of my God, and the name of the city of my God, which is new Jerusalem, which cometh down out of heaven from my God: and I will write upon him my new name.

He that hath an ear, let him hear what the Spirit saith unto the churches.” – Rev. 3: 5-13  (KJV)

Geopolitics: How Maps Help Us Understand History, Predict the Future – Pt. 1, by Brian Miller

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Editor’s Introductory Note: The following guest article was first posted by Ammo.com. It is re-posted with permission. It appealed to me because–like the author–I adhere to the Geographic Detriminist school of history. – JWR

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“It is not often that nations learn from the past, even rarer that they draw the correct conclusions from it.” – Henry Kissinger

American students are notoriously bad at geography, and have been for some time. In 2002, for instance – the year after the 9/11 attacks – only 17% of American students could find Afghanistan on a map. In 2016, less than one third were able to score a minimal pass of 66% on the National Geographic Global Literacy Survey. In 2015, the United States Government Accountability Office reported that 75% of eighth grade students don’t even know what geography is.

Picture your old-school geography class. More likely than not, it was a boring subject requiring rote memorization of global factoids, U.S. state names, and their capitals. This does American students a disservice, because an appreciation for the hidden power of geography helps one make sense of seemingly random historical tidbits, more accurately predict the future, and see beyond political rhetoric to what actually matters among nation-states.

When contemplating geography’s usefulness in better understanding our world, consider the following:

  1. Why is it important to the state to get a handle on its subjects and their environments, i.e., through long-established practices like land registries and the creation of permanent last names? Or more recent examples such as the census bureau, the passport system, the DMV, birth and death certificates, or just registering to vote?
  2. Why is the state seemingly always the enemy of “people who move around,” i.e., nomads and pastoralists, hunter-gatherers, Gypsies, vagrants, homeless people, iterants, runaway slaves, and serfs? All have always been a thorn in the side of the state, and efforts to permanently settle these mobile peoples seem to rarely succeed.

The answers to these questions are straightforward when the classic imperatives of the state are known – and these are taxation, conscription, and the prevention of rebellion.Continue reading“Geopolitics: How Maps Help Us Understand History, Predict the Future – Pt. 1, by Brian Miller”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

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To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year. Note that as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in the Comments. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

I’ll be heading back to the ranch soon, with stops to visit two consulting clients. In the past month, I’ve picked up 16 antique cartridge guns to add to the inventory of Elk Creek Company. At the urging of a couple of readers, I just resumed taking orders today (Saturday, September 26th, 2020). My #1 Daughter will begin  packing orders, as they come in. But be advised that we won’t begin shipping out orders until Monday, October 5th. (We live at a remote ranch, and don’t get into town often.)

Now that the smoke has cleared, I’m back to bicycle riding 10 to 15 miles per day.

I’m anxious to get back home to the Redoubt!

Now, over to Lily…

Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

Preparedness Notes for Friday — September 25, 2020

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On September 25th, 1789, the first Congress of the United States approved 12 amendments to the U.S. Constitution and sent them to the states for ratification.

This is also the birthday of Will Smith (born 1968), best known for his roles in I Am Legend and Enemy Of The State.

—

Please wait until the “Book Bomb Day”, October 20th, 2020, to order your copy of my new book, The Ultimate Prepper’s Survival Guide. Our goal is to get it ito Amazon’s Top 100, and on The New York Times bestsellers list. Thanks!

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 90 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A gift certificate from Quantum Harvest LLC (up to a $2,200 value) good for 12% off the purchase of any of their sun-tracking models, and 10% off the purchase price of any of their other models.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (a $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.

Second Prize:

  1. A Front Sight Lifetime Diamond Membership, providing lifetime free training at any Front Sight Nevada course, with no limit on repeating classes. This prize is courtesy of a SurvivalBlog reader who prefers to be anonymous.
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, that have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A Three-Day Deluxe Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $190 value),
  4. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  5. An assortment of products along with a one-hour consultation on health and wellness from Pruitt’s Tree Resin (a $265 value).

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. Naturally Cozy is donating a “Prepper Pack” Menstrual Kit.  This kit contains 18 pads and it comes vacuum-sealed for long term storage or slips easily into a bugout bag.  The value of this kit is $220.
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Round 90 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

Bypassing Internet News Censorship, by M.F.

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In late 2019, I completed the ham radio Technician and General tests and to be honest I’ve yet to get started on the Extra Class test. if you are new to ham radio, then check out hamexam.org and sign up, it’s free. You can take your tests on a phone or tablet until your hitting 90s and then go schedule to take the test at a local comm center or ham club. They charge just $15 to test, and they often let you also take the next higher level test free of charge.

I managed to buy and set up a Yaesu FTM-100DR 2m/70cm radio, and a Yaesu FT450D HF radio. I put a SCU-17-USB sound card on the HF radio I and got a Panasonic Toughbook hooked up. so I can hit e-mail RMS gateways out in the Midwest and the Southeast over HF for e-mail using Winlink.  APRS is pretty useful over the 2m band. (More on this later).

I also put an inexpensive 25-watt Chinese transceiver in my truck. But that is mostly used as a scanner for keeping an ear out on local information. That was an idea that I picked up from Sam Culper of forwardobserver.com. Everyone is a sensor.

I’ve managed to get a flag pole modded to secure a diamond $100 antenna for my 2m/70cm radio. It’s got a pretty good SWR of like 1.1. For the HF radio it took a lot of work, and some trial and error, but I managed to get a 550 cord pull up about 35 feet high in the trees, and pulled up a Buckmast OCF dipole antenna.
I can’t transmit on the 160m band but I can get out on the 40 and 80m bands when they are good. I’ve talked to Washington State, Texas, Louisiana, Costa Rica, and Canada. when 10 and 6m are open, it’s interesting and really cool to hear other states and other countries-  I’ve read or heard on the radio that 2019 was the worst year for [long distance propagation] radio since radio was invented with no sunspot activity for all of the year.

A BBS Option?

In my research on ham radio, I wanted to get some kind of BBS system setup.  I found that that it’s not plug and play, nor are people really doing much with it over VHF/HF, making it hard for me to get in to. The solution I keep seeing is buying a modem from this company and it does BBS so you can have e-mail. But I really don’t want to buy anything else. I want to do stuff.  So I guess those BBSs are rare now. My basic idea is having local information using 2m/70cm and having national and international information using HF.
if you plan on copying this idea you will have to figure out what local nets are out there and monitor frequencies like 14.300 daily (as this is where the maritime mobile service network has nets that usually cover national weather broadcasts from the NWS and reports on ocean-related events like storms. I listened to broadcasts when the last hurricane hit the Bahamas)

I shoudl mention that AmRRON.com has a ton of info if your getting started in ham radio or just want info on state nets. Also, if you are just starting out and want to talk internationally get a WiresX compatible Yaesu radio (such as a FTM100-DR) and a Technician license. With that, you can chat over your laptop using a handheld — or hook in to a digital repeater with Internet access and talk to people in Germany, Japan or wherever. WiresX stuff is good as long as the power is up, and you have Internet. You can connect in to chat rooms that kind of remind me of old AOL chat rooms days, online.Continue reading“Bypassing Internet News Censorship, by M.F.”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

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Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we further examine the economic impact of the Wuhan Flu pandemic. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

How silver’s 50% rally in 2020 has transformed the industry

o  o  o

Another rush to cash? Analysts are cautiously watching stocks, gold price

Economy & Finance:

Coronavirus: Hit to global economy ‘will be less than expected’ in 2020. Here is a quote:

“The damage to the global economy this year will be less than previously expected, but still “unprecedented”, a leading international body says.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development now predicts a decline of 4.5% in 2020, versus the 6% drop forecast in June.

It means it no longer expects the UK to have the deepest contraction of the major G20 economies this year.

But the 10.1% drop would still make Britain one of the hardest hit.”

o  o  o

At Wolf Street: Who Bought the $3.3 Trillion Piled on the Incredibly Spiking US National Debt Since March?

o  o  o

At Zero Hedge: Yelp Reveals 60% Of Business Closures Are Now Permanent. Here is how the article opens:

“The virus pandemic shock is generating deep economic scarring, the likes of which many have never seen before. The virus-induced downturn has led the economy into a “liquidity trap,” in which interest rates will likely reside on the zero lower bound until 2023, and monetary policy could have trouble stimulating the real economy besides artificially inflating asset prices. As Washington pumps fiscal injection after fiscal injection into the real economy, creating unstable artificial growth, the latest lapse of fiscal support, now 46 days, has sent the economy into another slump.

For more color on the deep economic scarring, not just a deterioration in the labor market, we turn our attention to a Yelp report published Wednesday that revealed as of Aug. 31, 163,735 businesses have closed on the platform, a 23% increase since mid-July.

Yelp pointed out an increase of permanent business closures over the past six months, now reaching 97,966, or about 60% of closed businesses will never reopen their doors again.”

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

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“Hear me when I call, O God of my righteousness: thou hast enlarged me when I was in distress; have mercy upon me, and hear my prayer.

O ye sons of men, how long will ye turn my glory into shame? how long will ye love vanity, and seek after leasing? Selah.

But know that the Lord hath set apart him that is godly for himself: the Lord will hear when I call unto him.

Stand in awe, and sin not: commune with your own heart upon your bed, and be still. Selah.

Offer the sacrifices of righteousness, and put your trust in the Lord.

There be many that say, Who will shew us any good? Lord, lift thou up the light of thy countenance upon us.

Thou hast put gladness in my heart, more than in the time that their corn and their wine increased.

I will both lay me down in peace, and sleep: for thou, Lord, only makest me dwell in safety.” – Psalm 4 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — September 24, 2020

On September t1775, Ethan Allen was captured by the British.

In 1493, Columbus set sail with 17 ships on his second voyage to the Americas.

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Today we present three short articles that are not eligible for Round 90 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. One of them is a well-writen rant, one of them is less than 1,500 words, and one of them is a guest article.

Note that Round 90 of the contest ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.