Economics & Investing: JWR’s Predictions for 2023

Today, in a special edition of this column are JWR‘s economic, finance, and market predictions for 2023 and beyond.

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Bottom line up front (BLUF), I believe that  2023 will be seen as a year of recession, layoffs, and stagflation. Consumer inflation will be rampant, but some assets will deflate, as the economy contracts. In the longer term, the recession starting in 2023 may develop into a general economic depression. Perhaps the era will someday be characterized as “The Depression of the late 2020s and early 2030s.”  Now, for the details:

Precious Metals:

With inflation continuing at a rapid clip, I expect precious metals to outperform most other assets.  If the expected recession is deep, then the monetary metals (silver and gold) will shine more than the industrial metals (platinum, palladium, rhodium, et cetera.)

A couple of wild cards are the ongoing war in Ukraine and the threatened war over the control of Taiwan.  If either of those conflicts blows up into a regional or global war, then some of the more exotic and “strategic” metals that are crucial to high-tech weaponry (such as rhodium, ruthenium, and iridium) may go ballistic.

Global Economy:

The global economy is likely to slump in 2023 and 2024. Economies seem to be at a tipping point.  I’m not the only economic commentator that is seeing this. Multinational corporations will have to be highly reactive or even predictive, in order to make a profit, in 2023. Mass layoffs will be the norm. Social unrest will follow. Wars will be useful distractions, to keep despots in their places of power.

U.S. Economy:

Here in the States, with a Democrat in the White House, the economy will stagnate, and inflation will continue.  Stagflation will be the word of the day.

The deeply divided congress will enact very little new legislation. Just passing budgets will be a huge hurdle.

Mergers and acquisitions will proliferate, as big fish gobble up smaller, weaker fish.

There will be some massive layoffs, starting in the tech sector. As the economy grinds down into low gear, airlines, car manufacturers, banks, stock trading firms, and retailers will all announce major layoffs. Most folks will go into Hunker Down mode. A lot of 20-somethings will be moving back home to live with Mom and Dad. And whole families may be moving into Mom and Dad’s basement. The number of homeless people will surely increase, with a concomitant rise in street crime. Agitators from groups like BLM and Antifa will organize some huge protests, primarily in urban areas.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing: JWR’s Predictions for 2023”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — January 12, 2023

On January 12, 1528 – Gustav Eriksson of the Vasa noble family was crowned king of Sweden (Gustav I.)

On January 12, 1737,  John Hancock was born. He was the first signer of the Declaration of Independence.

January 12, 1879: The British-Zulu War begins. British troops, under Lieutenant General Frederic Augustus, invade Zululand from the southern African Republic of Natal.

January 12,1908: A wireless message is sent long-distance for the first time from the Eiffel Tower in Paris.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $775,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

 

My Approach to a Semi-Auto Scout Rifle – Part 2, by Swampfox

(Continued from Part 1.  This concludes the article.)

Before the Test – Make Your Own Ballistics Gel

For ballistics testing at home, there are several options. At the time of my Mini-14 tests, I did not have any ClearBallistics gel or other commercial choices. If you want to do this a lot, perhaps buying a kit would be a good investment. I was short of time, so I whipped up some Knox gelatin. It is easy to do, but it takes a little time and patience.

If you are going to be doing a lot of testing, you will need more gelatin than you think. For a homemade 10% ordnance gel replica, you will be mixing 8 ounces of water for every 1 ounce of gelatin powder, or around 1 gallon of water per pound of gelatin mix. Do not get the gelatin packets, get the big tubs of it online in order to save money. For my testing, I made about 5 gallons of finished gelatin, which took 5 lbs of Knox gelatin powder. That stuff is not as cheap as it used to be, either. Again, if you are going to do a lot of testing, it could be better to buy a commercial kit.Continue reading“My Approach to a Semi-Auto Scout Rifle – Part 2, by Swampfox”

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats, and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. Today, we look at some new compact off-grid power system options.

Off-Grid Solar Generators on Display at CES Trade Show

Over at PV Magazine: Off-grid solar generators on display at US trade show.  A quote:

“Geneverse, meanwhile, has unveiled the HomePower PRO Plus, a portable solar generator that can be converted to an on-grid generator system for home backup. The devices can be controlled through an app to perform grid services such as peak demand shaving. 

They come with 4,838 Wh of capacity, 4,400 W of rated power, and 8,800 W of surge power. The surge outlet supports up to 30 A[mps], offering a useful alternative power source for contractors and RV travelers.

The PRO Plus is housed in a motorized “cart” for easy portability and contains 18 outlets hidden beneath sliding panels. The system features two modular Geneverse batteries that can be removed for flexible use. The product will be available in the second quarter.“

And here is another recent article: Titan Solar Generator Review – The Best Large Solar Generator?

JWR’s Comments: I must mention that I actually loathe the imprecise and technically incorrect term “solar generator”. That feel-good term is obviously the creation of some mass-marketing wonk. The proper term would be: “Portable PV power system with battery and inverter.”

Yes, they do have some utility, but they are not a panacea. And they are certainly not a substitute for a full-up PV power system. But they can be a great starter system for someone working toward self-reliance. And they are ideal for anyone who wants a flexible system that they can take with them when they travel in a camper or RV.

More Americans Moving Overseas

‘It’s a whole world, let’s explore it’ — More Americans leaving US amid rising political divisiveness, cost of living.

Some “Died Suddenly” News: Three Mass. State Policemen

H.L. sent this: Three Officers Die Suddenly Within Four Days, Massachusetts State Police Breaks Silence with Statement.

Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — January 11, 2023

Today is the birthday of Lieutenant Colonel Robert Blair “Paddy” Mayne. (11 January 1915 – 14 December 1955.) He was a British Army officer from Newtownards, lawyer, amateur boxer, and a founding member of the Special Air Service (SAS). He was awarded the DSO and Three Bars. Many of his contemporaries and historians believe that he should have been awarded the Victoria Cross.

This is the birthday of big game hunter and writer Peter Hathaway Capstick.

January 11th is also the birthday of Alexander Hamilton (1757-1804.)

And today is the natal day of the late Gunnar Fridtjof Thurmann Sønsteby, who was born in 1918. He was the most decorated hero of the Norwegian resistance under the German occupation. He died May 10, 2012.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $775,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

My Approach to a Semi-Auto Scout Rifle – Part 1, by Swampfox

This article describes my personal approach to setting up and testing a semi-auto scout rifle.

The “scout rifle” is a concept that has been around since the 1980s. First proposed by Colonel Jeff Cooper, it has become popular among outdoorsmen and survival-oriented folks as a “do-it-all” kind of rifle. Each person’s idea of a scout rifle can vary, with the purposes of self-defense and being able to take wild game common to your living area.

The original scout rifle concept has a very specific set of features. Cooper’s favorite caliber was, of course, the 308 Winchester / 7.62×51. He allowed other similar calibers such as 7mm-08 in the same power level. A scout rifle is supposed to be light, between 6.5 and 7.75 lbs, and have a short length of 39” or less. Scout rifles are typically magazine-fed bolt action, although Cooper’s original concept allowed for semi-auto operation if a sufficiently light action could be found. Forward-mounted, long eye-relief optics are the most noticeable feature of a scout rifle, typically from 2x-7x magnification. Scout rifles are supposed to be capable of 2 MOA or less, and are typically equipped with a Ching-style sling.

My Rifle and Modifications

My scout rifle concept matches my style of shooting and my specific needs. I have chosen the Mini-14 rifle as my platform, which is probably a controversial choice. So, why the Mini-14? Years ago, I worked for a state agency, and I trained with and was issued a Mini-14. I asked my instructors at the time why the Mini-14 was used instead of the AR-15. Mostly, it came down to durability and Ruger’s excellent customer service. At the time, a Mini-14 was also less expensive than an AR-15 rifle, although today the price difference has completely reversed! The wood and steel Mini-14 is more expensive.

My reasons for choosing the rifle are my own. After training with the rifle, I simply fell in love with it. I went out and bought a brand new one, and I have kept it as my general-purpose rifle ever since. I have other choices, but it is usually the Mini-14 that I grab when I am headed out the door for an unknown situation. The one time that I used a rifle in an armed altercation, it was my Mini-14 that kept me safe.

The Mini-14 also looks more “friendly” with its wood stock and lack of black plastic. If you live in an area with anti-gun sentiment or “assault rifle” restrictions, the Mini-14 is a good choice. You may have a different rifle that fills the same role in your life – personal preference and familiarity counts for a lot!Continue reading“My Approach to a Semi-Auto Scout Rifle – Part 1, by Swampfox”

SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets

This weekly column is a collection of short snippets: responses to posted articles, practical self-sufficiency items, how-tos, lessons learned, tips and tricks, and news items — both from readers and from SurvivalBlog’s editors. Note that we may select some long e-mails for posting as separate letters.

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We’ll start off with this: United Van Lines 46thAnnual National Movers Study Reveals Where and Why Americans Moved in 2022.  JWR’s Comments:  I must mention that one glaring error can be found in this report’s discussion of Oregon. It states:  “We’re also seeing younger Millennials migrating to vibrant, metropolitan economies, like Washington, D.C. and Portland, Oregon.”  There is actually now an exodus from the Portland metro area. The city of Portland is losing population and downtown businesses. Meanwhile, the lower Willamette Valley, Rogue River Valley, central Oregon, and eastern Oregon are gaining population. A lot of those newcomers are conservatives from northwestern Oregon. The “younger Millennials” that they mention are a backfill, only partially offsetting the much larger headlong rush out of Portland.

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NY red flag law ruled unconstitutional. (Thanks to B.G. for the link.)

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Reader Jason W. wrote:

“I recently watched the documentary film Happy People: A Year In The Taiga. If you haven’t seen it it is entertaining and worthwhile. I found it free on the Tubi app. It follows a village in the taiga for a year and covers a number of useful skills. They show how to make deadfall traps, skis, mosquito repellent, and other practical things. It also shows people are the same wherever you go. I really enjoyed it.”

JWR Adds:  I just checked, and found that this great documentary is also available at LookMovie, which does not require a subscription.

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A fine essay from Victor Davis Hanson, posted over at American Greatness: The Coup We Never Knew. (Our thanks to Tim J. for the link.)

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St. Funogas sent this:

“With SurvivalBlog supporter Seeds for Security’s sale going on right now, I thought I’d put a plug in for their seeds based on a good experience with them in the 2022 growing season.  After winning one of their prizes in the SurvivalBlog writing contest, I went to their website and found that aside from a catalog, there’s a blog with stories, product reviews, and recipes as well as information on storing heritage seeds we harvest from our gardens.

They’re more than just a company that sells survival seed collections, they also sell seeds by the packet.  They not only have better pricing than their larger competitors, more importantly they have many more seeds per packet.  On their green beans for example, competitors offer 50 seeds per packet at $3.25-$4.00+ while Seed for Security has 150 seeds per packet at $2.95.  I’ve bought seeds from other heritage seed companies and on too many varieties I’ve had to grow the plants for at least a year just to build up enough seed to do a halfway decent trial.  As an example, the Indian corn from Seed for Security not only gave me enough corn to make a year’s worth of cornmeal but more than enough seed to grow an even larger crop next year.  It was especially fun to see what surprise there’d be when shucking the ears, waiting to see what color combinations would be underneath.
Most of us would agree that it’s important to support not only products made in America, but in my opinion it’s equally important to support all the little guys who are trying to compete with the giant heritage seed companies.  It’s especially important to support SurvivalBlog’s advertisers to keep all those annoying ads, which every other blog on the internet is overrun with, from detracting from our daily reading experience.
So take a look at their website. They offer much more than just survival seed collection packages.”

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Reader C.B. liked this instructional video: Home Made Body Armor For Under $50 Tested? Becoming Ungovernable.

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“The basic issue in the world today is between two principles: Individualism and Collectivism.

Individualism holds that man has inalienable rights which cannot be taken away from him by any other man, nor by any number, group or collective of other men. Therefore, each man exists by his own right and for his own sake, not for the sake of the group.

Collectivism holds that man has no rights; that his work, his body and his personality belong to the group; that the group can do with him as it pleases, in any manner it pleases, for the sake of whatever it decides to be its own welfare. Therefore, each man exists only by the permission of the group and for the sake of the group.

These two principles are the roots of two opposite social systems. The basic issue of the world today is between these two systems.” – Ayn Rand

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — January 10, 2023

On January 10th, 1929, the first Adventures of Tintin comic book was published. Hergé’s books became hugely popular in Europe and around the world.

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January 10th, 1776 is the day that North Carolina Governor Josiah Martin issued a proclamation calling on the king’s loyal subjects to raise an armed force to combat the “rebels”. This ultimately led to Colonel Donald McLeod leading the men on an assault on the Patriots that ended with fifty of his men dead and 880 captured. The Patriots lost only two of their number.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $775,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

A DIY Masonry Outdoor Cook Stove, by K.R.

During our harsh winter weather, I look for projects that increase our preparedness, but that can be accomplished in the warmth of my garage; preferably with a minimum of cost. This winter, my wife and I were reviewing the strengths and weaknesses of our preparations. We were inspired by the SurvivalBlog articles that have implored us all to examine and test our preps. We considered how we would do our cooking in a grid-down situation during summer, when cooking on our inside wood stove would be impractical. We already have (a few) gas-fueled camp stoves; but what about that day when no gas is available, and the wood you fell and chop is your primary source of heat?

Under such conditions, I always thought I would simply use an open fire, since I’ve done that many times camping. However, open fires are very inefficient for cooking. One uses more wood (which I believe would be in shorter supply in a grid-down situation) and more smoke is produced (which helps other –perhaps unwelcome–people know when and where dinner is about to be served). So we began searching for ways to build a small, efficient wood stove that was durable enough to be kept outside.

We browsed online line to see how people cook food in rural, undeveloped countries with limited wood supplies. We saw fascinating examples of permanent, mortar-based cooking stoves, where people use simple materials to create very efficient stoves that cook with a small amount of wood. Newer versions of this type of stove are sometimes called “rocket stoves” because they can produce a lot of heat in a confined space, with minimal fuel. They also produce a minimum of smoke. There are many ways to make or purchase such rocket stoves. Most of the ones I’ve seen would be perfect for a bug-out situation. But we were looking for something stout for a homestead situation; something that could be left under four feet of snow in the winter if need be. So our search continued.Continue reading“A DIY Masonry Outdoor Cook Stove, by K.R.”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, we focus on Wallowa County Oregon’s bid to join the Greater Idaho movement. (See the Region-Wide section.)

Region-Wide

Wallowa becomes 12th Oregon county to seek secession to Idaho.  This article begins:

“Wallowa County in eastern Oregon submitted a petition aimed at forcing a ballot initiative in 2023 that would move the county out of Democrat-led Oregon and into GOP-led Idaho and is part of the Greater Idaho movement aimed to “relocate the Oregon/Idaho border to make both states better.”

According to Greater Idaho’s website, a spokesman for the Greater Idaho movement, Matt McCaw, said, “Two major statewide ballot measures got 51 percent of the vote last month. That means eastern Oregon came within one percentage point of vetoing them. Western Oregon would be free of our interference if they stopped holding eastern Oregon captive and let our communities join Idaho.”

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Study: Montana, Idaho lack good data to make wolf management decisions.

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Some great scenery in this 2021 article: American Road Trip ~The Tetons, Wyoming, Idaho & Montana.

Idaho

Court documents: Suspect DNA found on knife sheath in Idaho murder case.  JWR’s Comments: This sounds like 23AndMe became 23AndMyCrimeScene.

Here are some more details:

New court documents lay out case against Bryan Kohberger for Moscow Murders.

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Video: Historic Gold Dredge on the Yankee Fork – between Bonanza-Custer, Idaho.

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“A tyrant in effect is one who, though having the appearance of civil authority, is but a man ordering fellow men to great evil. His injustice is worthy of a higher type of resistance, for it concerns the whole of civil life; it is not merely an injustice here or there. He is a private man waging an unjust war against the people. With force, the people can pressure him to act justly, remove him from office, or declare separation and independence (when possible). Since the people resist an aggressor, revolution is a type of defensive war.” – Stephen Wolfe, The Case For Christian Nationalism

Preparedness Notes for Monday — January 9, 2023

January 9, 1943 was the birthday of gunsmith Paris Theodore, developer of the ASP modifications to the S&W M39 pistol.

January 9, 1890 was the birthday of Karel Capek, a Czech writer who wrote the science fiction play R.U.R. (Rossumovi Univerzální Roboti, or in English: Rossum’s Universal Robots). He coined the word “robot”.

On this day in 1776, writer Thomas Paine published his pamphlet “Common Sense,” setting forth his arguments in favor of American independence.

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I just heard that SurvivalRealty.com has a new property listing in Costa Rica. I see that it has some very interesting features and substantial off-grid infrastructure. It is priced at $3.5 million USD.

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Today’s SurvivalBlog feature article was written by Field Gear Editor Tom Christianson.