Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. Most of these items are from JWR’s “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

You may have heard that silver tumbled 5.19% on Friday, to $22.57 USD per Troy ounce.  That was attributed to a briefly-strengthening Dollar.  But the Dollar’s prospects look dim for 2023, while the prospects for silver look bright. Buy on dip days, like these!

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LBMA annual survey sees gold prices averaging the year around $1,859 an ounce, silver to hold around $23.65.

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Stefan Gleason, at Gold-Eagle.com: Gold Market Isn’t Buying Powell’s ‘Disinflation’ Declaration.

Economy & Finance:

Our own Tom Christianson recommended an article in City Journal: The Fed Goes Underwater. This piece begins:

“Before new trillion-dollar federal spending bonanzas became a regular occurrence, the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it lost over $700 billion might have garnered a few headlines. Yet the loss met with silence. Few Americans have noticed the huge increase in both the scale and the scope of the central bank or the dangers that it poses to the American economy. As Fed-driven inflation becomes the Number One political issue in America, that will change.

The Fed’s losses owe to a shift in the way it does business. Before the 2008 financial meltdown, the central bank tried to control interest rates by buying and selling U.S. bonds. A few billion in purchases or sales could move the whole economy, and this meant that the Fed, which operates much like a normal bank, could keep a relatively small balance sheet of under $1 trillion.”

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Over at Yahoo Finance: The word that made stocks fall in love with the Fed: Morning Brief.

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This WND article was linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: 6-year-old spends $1,000 on food delivery app while playing on his dad’s phone.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“The greater the bureaucratization of public life, the greater will be the attraction of violence. In a fully developed bureaucracy there is nobody left with whom one can argue, to whom one can present grievances, on whom the pressures of power can be exerted. Bureaucracy is the form of government in which everybody is deprived of political freedom, of the power to act; for the rule by Nobody is not no-rule, and where all are equally powerless, we have a tyranny without a tyrant.” – Hannah Arendt, On Violence

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — February 5, 2023

Today is the birthday of Sir Hiram Stevens Maxim (5 February 1840 – 24 November 1916). He was an American-British inventor best known as the creator of the first automatic machine gun, the Maxim gun. Maxim held patents on numerous mechanical devices such as hair-curling irons, a mousetrap, and steam pumps. Maxim claimed to invented the lightbulb.

Coincidentally born the same day of the same year was John Boyd Dunlop, the Scottish inventor who invented pneumatic rubber tires.

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An Update:  We are now down to just 120 of the SurvivalBlog 2005-2022 Archive waterproof USB sticks. We are not planning on a second production run.   So the next few days will be your last chance to order yours, until February, 2024.

Spy Balloon? What a Maroon

The mass media has been all abuzz about the transit of what was reportedly a “Chinese Spy Balloon”, over the continental United States (CONUS). There were plenty of conflicting reports. And the Biden Administration did a pathetic job of showing any resolve in defending our airspace.

This media circus began on Wednesday evening (February 1, 2023) with some fuzzy pictures taken by residents of Billings, Montana. This news story was released the following morning: Chinese surveillance balloon left Montana, drifting across middle of U.S., Pentagon confirms.

And then we learned: Flight data: 3 military aircraft from Spokane went to Montana following discovery of Chinese balloon.

A news conference confirmed that the DoD vetoed shooting it down for fear of the craft falling on population. But that seemed to be a specious argument, if we are talking about central Montana, which is very lightly populated. We can see from the flight tracks of the F35s that they had plenty of opportunity to shoot the balloon down, if they had been ordered to do so. The balloon was at 60,000 feet.  The “official” service ceiling of an F22 is 65,000 feet and the “official” service ceiling of an F35 is just 50,000 feet, but I’m fairly confident that can fly higher, and I’m certain that their weapons systems can engage targets up at 60 Grand.

A Balloon, Not a Blimp

Allow me to backtrack a bit, and clarify the reports of this “maneuverable” balloon “hovered over” the city of Billings. Some balloons can change their altitude, but only blimps or dirigibles (with propellers and tailfins) can alter their course away from the current wind direction or hold their position relative to the ground. Otherwise, any lighter-than-air craft is at the mercy of the winds. Given Bernoulli’s Principle, adjusting the course of a spherical balloon is just about impossible. A sphere does not create compression, in air.Continue reading“Spy Balloon? What a Maroon”

JWR’s Meme Of The Week:

The latest meme created by JWR:

 

Meme Text: 

A Friend Once Asked Me: “Do You Have Plans For The Fall?”

I Sat There For A Moment, Trying To Think Of Something Profound To Say. Then I Realized That He Just Meant Autumn.

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“This is a true saying, if a man desire the office of a bishop, he desireth a good work.

A bishop then must be blameless, the husband of one wife, vigilant, sober, of good behaviour, given to hospitality, apt to teach;

Not given to wine, no striker, not greedy of filthy lucre; but patient, not a brawler, not covetous;

One that ruleth well his own house, having his children in subjection with all gravity;

(For if a man know not how to rule his own house, how shall he take care of the church of God?)

Not a novice, lest being lifted up with pride he fall into the condemnation of the devil.

Moreover he must have a good report of them which are without; lest he fall into reproach and the snare of the devil.

Likewise must the deacons be grave, not doubletongued, not given to much wine, not greedy of filthy lucre;

Holding the mystery of the faith in a pure conscience.

And let these also first be proved; then let them use the office of a deacon, being found blameless.

Even so must their wives be grave, not slanderers, sober, faithful in all things.

Let the deacons be the husbands of one wife, ruling their children and their own houses well.

For they that have used the office of a deacon well purchase to themselves a good degree, and great boldness in the faith which is in Christ Jesus.

These things write I unto thee, hoping to come unto thee shortly:

But if I tarry long, that thou mayest know how thou oughtest to behave thyself in the house of God, which is the church of the living God, the pillar and ground of the truth.

And without controversy great is the mystery of godliness: God was manifest in the flesh, justified in the Spirit, seen of angels, preached unto the Gentiles, believed on in the world, received up into glory.” – 1 Timothy 3 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — February 4, 2023

On February 4, 1945, the Yalta Conference opened with Franklin D. Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin meeting to plan the final defeat and occupation of Nazi Germany. Roosevelt was reportedly weak and ill at the conference. There, they conspired to carve up Europe by marking new boundaries on a National Geographic map. This set the stage for the Cold War, and the statist globalism of the early 21st Century.

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We are in need of some entries for Round 105 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $775,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 105 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

The Fed’s Crossroads – Hawkish or Dovish?, by Arkadiusz Sieroń

Editor’s Introductory Note: This guest article was selected by JWR. It was first published by Sunshine Profits, and is reposted with permission.

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While Flash US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined further in January, the input inflation accelerated. It’s not clear whether the Fed should become more dovish or hawkish – and that impacts gold.

The flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 46.6 in January, up from 45.0 in December. It implies that the decline in business activity softened to the slowest in three months. But it was a further fall, as each number below 50 means a decrease in the economic output. The main drivers of the downturn were the impact of interest rates hikes, uncertainty, and high inflation on consumer spending.

The US Services Business Activity Index posted 46.6 in January, up from 44.7 at the end of 2022. The service sector thus experienced another solid decline, although the softest since last October. The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI was also up slightly from 46.2 in December to 46.8 in January, but it was still the second-fastest decline since May 2020.

The good news is that the numbers beat expectations. The bad news is that input inflation struck back. It quickened from December, ending a seven-month sequence of moderating cost pressure.

U.S. Flash PMI and the Fed

Although the January data came above expectations, it showed that private sector contractions continued into the new year. As Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented:

The US economy has started 2023 on a disappointingly soft note, with business activity contracting sharply again in January. Although moderating compared to December, the rate of decline is among the steepest seen since the global financial crisis, reflecting falling activity across both manufacturing and services.

But what is tricky in the report is the stagflationary flavor, i.e., the indication of both a weakening economy and rising inflationary pressure. As Williamson said,

The worry is that, not only has the survey indicated a downturn in economic activity at the start of the year, but the rate of input cost inflation has accelerated into the new year, linked in part to upward wage pressures, which could encourage a further aggressive tightening of Fed policy despite rising recession risks.

Indeed! Although the 25-basis points hike in February seems to be already determined, the Fed could provide more hikes than currently expected. [Editor’s Update Note: There was indeed a 25 basis point rate increase, on February 1, 2023.] I wouldn’t be surprised if the dovish actions at the upcoming FOMC meeting were accompanied by hawkish signals. Given that the small (well, before 2022, it was a standard size of an interest rate hike) move is already priced in, any hawkish clues would be detrimental to gold prices.

Implications for Gold

What does it all mean for the gold (and silver) outlook for 2023? Well, as the chart below shows (courtesy of goldpriceforecast.com), the price of gold has been rising recently. The upward move has been driven by hopes of a more dovish monetary policy and, eventually, the Fed’s pivot. Hence, any hawkish surprise could send gold prices down.

 

 

However, it’s too early to declare the comeback of inflation. It was just one month of acceleration in input costs, and they didn’t translate into higher output prices. Hence, I believe that the dovish outlook is more likely, especially since the most prominent hawks don’t vote in 2023 (because of the rotation within the FOMC members, Bullard, Mester, and George are out this year).

To be clear, in a stagflationary environment, monetary policy will fluctuate from dovish to hawkish, and gold prices will react accordingly. However, the weakening economy should prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance in the upcoming months, which should be a tailwind for gold.

Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make both long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug-out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in the Odds ‘n Sods Column or in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

Now that we’ve made some room in our propane freezer, we had the opportunity to butcher five excess roosters this past week. For this, we waited for a day with above-freezing temperatures. As usual, I did the beheading, pulled the innards, chopped off the lower legs and wings, and skinned them. (We don’t pluck. feathers.) That was all done outdoors.  Lily did the final cleanup of the skinned birds, in our kitchen.

This time, we saved the hearts and livers to cook up and freeze, for dog and cat food supplementation. I should mention that we feed them just small amounts of liver each week, out of caution about overdosing on fat-soluble Vitamin D.

I’ve had to make some extra trips to town, to pick up order envelopes from folks who paid for their SurvivalBlog Archive USB sticks via check.  We’ve ripped through the 1,700-stick inventory very quickly. At last count, we had just 152 sticks still on hand.  I expect to run out of them before February 11th. There probably won’t be another production run of the archive USB sticks in 2023, so the clock is ticking.

I’ve had a lot of distractions, but this week I hope to make some progress on remodeling the interior of our ranch workshop.

Now, Lily’s report…Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“The earth is the Lord‘s, and the fulness thereof; the world, and they that dwell therein.

For he hath founded it upon the seas, and established it upon the floods.

Who shall ascend into the hill of the Lord? or who shall stand in his holy place?

He that hath clean hands, and a pure heart; who hath not lifted up his soul unto vanity, nor sworn deceitfully.

He shall receive the blessing from the Lord, and righteousness from the God of his salvation.

This is the generation of them that seek him, that seek thy face, O Jacob. Selah.

Lift up your heads, O ye gates; and be ye lift up, ye everlasting doors; and the King of glory shall come in.

Who is this King of glory? The Lord strong and mighty, the Lord mighty in battle.

Lift up your heads, O ye gates; even lift them up, ye everlasting doors; and the King of glory shall come in.

Who is this King of glory? The Lord of hosts, he is the King of glory. Selah.” – Psalm 24 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — February 3, 2023

On February 3rd, 1959, a plane crash near Clear Lake, Iowa tragically took the lives of three rising stars in American music: Buddy Holly (Charles Hardin Holley – pictured), J.P. Richardson (aka “The Big Bopper”), and Ritchie Valens (Richard Steven Valenzuela). The day is remembered as “The Day the Music Died.”  Holly had chartered the plane, to avoid the discomfort of the chilly band tour bus. As the story of the Winter Dance Party Tour goes:

“Following that night’s show at the Surf Ballroom, guitarist Tommy Allsup lost a coin toss with 17-year-old Ritchie Valens for one of the three seats on the plane. Waylon Jennings was approached by J.P. Richardson who was suffering from the flu and asked if could take his spot on the plane. He voluntarily gave up his own seat on the Beechcraft Bonanza – a decision that would ultimately haunt the future country legend for decades.”

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Today’s guest feature article will not be in the judging for the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest, because it is too brief, and because it was first published elsewhere.

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We are in great need of entries for Round 105 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.  Round 105 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Butchering Chickens: Slow and Effortful, by Mrs. Alaska

For a decade, we have raised laying hens and enjoyed them immensely, for their eggs, foraging for bugs, and alerting us to predators, as well as for their entertaining antics. We have kept 4-10 at a time, and named them. I have never been able to kill any hens (cockerels yes) or eat those that died.

However, I do like to eat chicken, so I thought it time to explore raising and butchering meat chickens. A friend had the same idea. So she bought 25 Cornish cross chicks, which are the ones most commonly raised for meat in the U.S. We agreed that she would care for them for 6-8 weeks, we would split the cost of purchase and feed, and then my husband and I would join her for the butchering work.

Here is what I learned and what I will do in the future.

When we arrived, my friend was fuming that the development of this breed is unconscionable and she will never buy them again. The Cornish cross is bred to gain weight so rapidly that by 6-8 weeks (6 weeks for us), they are unable to live with their unnatural weight distribution. Their hearts, lungs, and legs cannot support them. Many had respiratory problems, three appeared to have died of heart attacks, and one had a broken leg. None behaved like her laying hens, which are active, social, and curious roamers. These chickens were listless and sedentary. They also smelled bad – which is apparently a known trait. Her daughter cried at the state of them.Continue reading“Butchering Chickens: Slow and Effortful, by Mrs. Alaska”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. Most of these items are from JWR’s “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. Today, we look at renewed market demand for gold. (See the Precious Metals section.)

Precious Metals:

Gold demand surged to an 11-year high in 2022 on ‘colossal’ central bank buying.

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The world’s largest silver producing countries in 2022 – report.

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Kelsey Williams, at Gold-Eagle.com: Orderly Markets vs. Chaos.

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Piepenberg: Bonds Die, CPIs Lie & Gold Rises.

Economy & Finance:

I found this linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Dow closes more than 350 points higher, S&P 500 caps best January in four years. JWR’s Comment:  This is a juncture to cash out of stocks.  Switch to precious metals!

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US health insurers to withstand high inflation & interest rates in 2023: Fitch.

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BlackRock partners with a digital platform to launch ETF savings plans across Europe. JWR’s Comment:  This article has all of the marks of being sourced from a press release.  (Note the cliched: “We are delighted…” partnership statement.) But it illustrates a nascent trend.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — February 2, 2023

On February 2, 1887, the first Groundhog Day was held, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.

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Update: We are now down to less than 180 SurvivalBlog 2005-2022 archive USB sticks on hand. “Going, going…”

There probably won’t be a second batch this year, so get your order in soon.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 105 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $775,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 105 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.