Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. Most of these items are from JWR’s “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. Today, some more details on the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse, and the closure of Signature Bank. (See the Economy & Finance section, the Derivatives section, and the Forex & Cryptos section.)

Important Note: If you have any exposure to a regional bank or one that is heavily into CDS derivatives or tied to a crypto exchange, then withdraw the majority of your funds, ASAP! – JWR

Precious Metals:

Perth Mint sold diluted gold to China, got caught, and tried to cover it up.

o  o  o

A piece by Dr. Ron Paul, posted by Gold-Eagle.com: The Federal Reserve’s Magic Trick: Big Tech.

Economy & Finance:

Silicon Valley Bank imploded in a single day. It could be just the tip of the iceberg. Here is a pericope:

“Commercial real estate should be a a top worry for investors because there is more than $60 billion in fixed rate loans that will soon require refinancing at higher interest rates. Additionally, there is more than $140 billion in floating rate commercial mortgage backed securities that will mature in the next two years, according to Goldman Sachs.”

o  o  o

Regulators have two massive problems to sort out with the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

o  o  o

Silicon Valley Bank is a reminder that ‘things tend to break’ when Fed hikes rates. JWR’s Comments:  This is a great example of the folly of “Borrowing short and lending long.”  A lot of the blame for this fiasco should go to Janet Yellen, who kept rates artificially low throughout her entire term, leading the Federal Reserve banking cartel.

o  o  o

Linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Larry Summers warns Silicon Valley Bank collapse has ‘substantial consequences’ for America’s innovation system.

o  o  o

CNBC: Auction process is reportedly underway to find a buyer for Silicon Valley Bank.

o  o  o

At Seeking Alpha: SVB Financial Group: Simply Scary.

o  o  o

Yellen rules out bailout for Silicon Valley Bank: “We’re not going to do that again”.

o  o  o

Larry McDonald (of Bear Traps Report) warns stock market crash could come within 60 days.

o  o  o

Update (Monday AM):  A headline at Yahoo Finance: US Regional Banks Remain Under Pressure as First Republic Sinks. Here is an excerpt:

“Regional lenders dominated the leader board for most-sold stocks in the US premarket:

First Republic Bank sank 65%

Western Alliance Bancorp lost 60%

PacWest Bancorp was down 46%

Finwise Bancorp tumbled 40%

Zions Bancorp. slid 24%

Metropolitan Bank dropped 23%

BankUnited Inc. was off 21%

The selling starting to seep into S&P 500 futures, which spiked overnight before turning lower 45 minutes before the cash open.”

Blackstone Defaults on Nordic CMBS as Property Values Wobble. JWR’s Comments: Just imagine if we were to hear a similar story in a few months about Blackrock, with a much higher dollar figure. In 2022, Blackrock lost $1.7 trillion in just six months. It is noteworthy that Blackrock controls $10 trillion dollars in assets! If this real estate giant defaulted, then we’d be looking at the grandmother of all bailouts.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — March 12, 2023

On March 12, 2009, hedge-fund investment manager Bernie Madoff pled guilty to various crimes related to his operation of a Ponzi scheme that was one of the largest in the world; he was sentenced to 150 years in prison.

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Today is the birthday of science fiction author Harry Harrison, who is best known for his Deathworld trilogy. (He was born in 1920 and died in 2012.)

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On March 12, 1850 the first US $20 gold piece was issued.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 105 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $800,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 105 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Long-Term Survival Poultry, by J.S.

A few years ago, we moved out of the suburbs and onto a farm/homestead with plans to start raising every farm animal imaginable. Lots of friends and family thought we were crazy, but we had spent years researching animal husbandry and couldn’t wait to put our book knowledge to work. We moved in around Christmas and by mid-January we had baby chicks in the brooder and some donated hatching eggs in an incubator.

While our farm is not our main source of income, we do run it like a business and each spring we raise a few hundred pullets (young laying hens) to be sold to the backyard poultry crowd who don’t want the hassle (and smell) of staring chicks in their homes. While we do hatch some eggs on the farm, most of our day-old chicks are mailed to us from the hatchery (yes, that’s how it works) and then we raise them in the brooder with the proper light, heat, food, and water.

There are a few obvious problems with the mail-order hatchery approach if your goal is long-term survival and self-sufficiency. It relies on an operational postal system, operational hatcheries, cheap consistent electricity, and running water. If any one of these systems fails to operate, all of a sudden you can’t have chickens. Last spring, we lost power for just a few hours and lost quite a few fragile baby chicks. Anyone looking for birds this year knows that they are quite hard to come by; hatcheries are sold out over six months in advance in most cases today due to high egg prices!

A lot of homesteaders, preppers, and backyard chicken hobbyists buy their chickens this same way (or at the farm store which are still just mail-order chicks). Even backyard breeders that do hatch their own eggs generally do so with electric brooders just like the large hatcheries use.Continue reading“Long-Term Survival Poultry, by J.S.”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“That no man should be moved by these afflictions: for yourselves know that we are appointed thereunto.

For verily, when we were with you, we told you before that we should suffer tribulation; even as it came to pass, and ye know.

For this cause, when I could no longer forbear, I sent to know your faith, lest by some means the tempter have tempted you, and our labour be in vain.

But now when Timotheus came from you unto us, and brought us good tidings of your faith and charity, and that ye have good remembrance of us always, desiring greatly to see us, as we also to see you:

Therefore, brethren, we were comforted over you in all our affliction and distress by your faith:

For now we live, if ye stand fast in the Lord.

For what thanks can we render to God again for you, for all the joy wherewith we joy for your sakes before our God;

Night and day praying exceedingly that we might see your face, and might perfect that which is lacking in your faith?

Now God himself and our Father, and our Lord Jesus Christ, direct our way unto you.

And the Lord make you to increase and abound in love one toward another, and toward all men, even as we do toward you:

To the end he may stablish your hearts unblameable in holiness before God, even our Father, at the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ with all his saints.” – 1 Thessalonians 3:3-13 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — March 11, 2023

135 years ago today, on March 11, 1888, the Great Blizzard of ’88 struck the northeastern United States.

Today is the birthday of author Douglas Adams (born 1952). He is the author of Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.

March 11th is the birthday of the late actor Anton Yelchin (born 1989, died June 19, 2016). He is remembered for his portrayal of Kyle Reese in Terminator: Salvation, and as Ensign Pavel Checkov, the most recent Star Trek movie series. He died in a freak accident wherein his parked Jeep Grand Cherokee unexpectedly rolled forward on an incline, pinning him to a security fence.

Trapper and survivalist Claude Lafayette Dallas, Jr. was born March 11, 1950. The subject of several books and movies, Dallas had a “colorful” life. He was convicted of voluntary manslaughter in the deaths of two game wardens, in Idaho. He served 22 years of a 30-year sentence before being released in 2005. He reportedly now lives in the wilds of Alaska.

A Florida Vacation, or SHTF?, by Z.P. Wilson

Greetings from Michigan, where the summers are glorious, and the winters long and cold. My wife and I have lived here all our lives, and have endured the seasonal cold by hunkering down at home with books and television. During our work lives, I often told her that when we retired, we would travel to warmer places when the snow flies.

We retired last year, so this was the first winter to put my idea into effect. I rented a house in Florida for the entire month of February. As we made plans for what to do and what to bring, a worry slowly crept into my brain—what to do if the Schumer Hit The Fan (SHTF) when we were far from home?

The Incomplete Prepper

I am the prepper in our family, and though my wife supports my efforts, she leaves most of it to me. I admit that I am an incomplete prepper. We’ve store food, cash, and ammo, but compared to some of the preppers I have read on this site, I am an amateur. Still, I think that any preps are better than no preps.

So I started thinking about various scenarios that could happen when we would be 1200 miles from home, in a large city with only the supplies we brought with us.

No matter the SHTF scenario, my primary concern was getting us home as quickly as possible. We planned to drive to Florida in my vehicle, a Ford Escape, which is a mid-size SUV. Here are my (admittedly incomplete) preparations for the journey.Continue reading“A Florida Vacation, or SHTF?, by Z.P. Wilson”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make both long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug-out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in the Odds ‘n Sods Column or in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

This week we did a bit of snowplowing.  I also got some work done, remodeling our workshop. And I constructed a full-height 3′ x7′ poultry wire mesh room within our henhouse. We plan to use that room for specific breeding and to protect our baby chicks. The framework for that room was constructed with mixture of 2x2s and 2x4s. Its door is a framework of 2x2s with a 2×4 cross-brace, with poultry wire stapled on.

Now, Lily’s report…Continue reading“Editors’ Prepping Progress”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Be merciful unto me, O God: for man would swallow me up; he fighting daily oppresseth me.

Mine enemies would daily swallow me up: for they be many that fight against me, O thou most High.

What time I am afraid, I will trust in thee.

In God I will praise his word, in God I have put my trust; I will not fear what flesh can do unto me.

Every day they wrest my words: all their thoughts are against me for evil.

They gather themselves together, they hide themselves, they mark my steps, when they wait for my soul.

Shall they escape by iniquity? in thine anger cast down the people, O God.

Thou tellest my wanderings: put thou my tears into thy bottle: are they not in thy book?

When I cry unto thee, then shall mine enemies turn back: this I know; for God is for me.

In God will I praise his word: in the Lord will I praise his word.

In God have I put my trust: I will not be afraid what man can do unto me.

Thy vows are upon me, O God: I will render praises unto thee.

For thou hast delivered my soul from death: wilt not thou deliver my feet from falling, that I may walk before God in the light of the living?” – Psalm 56 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — March 10, 2023

On March 10, 1910, China officially ended slavery. But unofficially, China now has one of the world’s largest slave populations. These are mostly political prisoners, working in laogai  prison factories. Sadly, there is no way of reliably knowing whether or not most of the “Made In China” merchandise that you buy might originate from these prisons.

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 105 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $800,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 105 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

Building A Bicycle Generator, by Ed J.

Being able to generate even small amounts of electricity post-SHTF will be very valuable. A simple, human-powered, 12-volt generator can be constructed easily and for very little money. I started with a used bicycle that I picked up for $50 bucks. I recommend a bike with multiple gears as you are probably going to be using a very low gear most of the time. Single-speed bicycles tend to be geared very high, and it would take a large amount of effort to pedal one of those while powering a generator. To construct this system, at the very least, you will need a bicycle, a stand of some sort to keep it stationary, a 12-volt alternator, a long belt, wires and cables, switches and fuses, and a 12-volt battery. All of these items can be used, and could even be sourced after an apocalyptic event. Just remember, especially when considering electronic and mechanical devices with moving parts that two is one, and one is none.

Piecing It Together

As mentioned earlier, I started with a used bike, but I purchased a new bike trainer stand to make the whole thing stationary. I also bought a sheet of 3/4” plywood to use for mounting everything. Using “U” bolts and eye bolts, I mounted the stand to the plywood. You could use different methods of mounting your stand, but it is important that you be able to adjust the position of the bike from front to back as this will be your adjustment for tightening the belt. I removed the rear tire and inner tube from my bike and purchased a new pair of bicycle rubber rim strips. I used both of these on the rim to prevent unnecessary wearing of the belt. Now is a good time to go ahead and install your belt while you have the rear wheel off the bike. Though a used one would work, I purchased a brand new (remanufactured), 3-wire alternator for a 1970s model Chevy with the old-style pulley using a v-belt. Be sure to get one with an internal regulator.Continue reading“Building A Bicycle Generator, by Ed J.”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. Most of these items are from JWR’s “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. Today, we look at some gains for precious metals in Dollar terms, and the Silicon Valley Bank crash.

Precious Metals:

Reported on Friday: Price gains in gold, silver on short covering, friendly outside markets.

And at the opening bell in Asia this morning, both gold and silver rose even more.

o  o  o

Kansas Bill Would Make Gold and Silver Legal Tender While Pushing Back Against CBDC.

o  o  o

From precious metals analyst Neils Christensen: Inflation is a global problem as annual European core CPI rises to a record high of 5.6%.

Economy & Finance:

Friday P.M. Update:

Silicon Valley Bank Shares Halted After Plunge Deepens.

and,

300 Billion Reasons Why SVB Contagion Is Spreading To The Broader Banking System. JWR’s Comment:  If your bank has a lot of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) exposure, then it might be a good time to draw your balance down below $1,000.

And in related news: NYPD called to Silicon Valley Bank branch as depositors attempt to pull cash: report.

Bloomberg: How a Bank Run Closed SVB and Where That Could Lead.

o  o  o

SurvivalBlog reader C.B. spotted this: Spending shocker: CBO’s latest debt projection should stun even Washington.

“A rapidly growing portion of what Washington terms ‘mandatory spending’ is interest on the federal debt.”

o  o  o

I found this piece from Fortune linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Citigroup cuts hundreds of jobs weeks after JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs announce layoffs.

o  o  o

Two times in 30 years the 2-year treasury stayed below $102, the market crashed 50%. Buckle up. (A hat tip to H.L. for the link.)

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — March 9, 2023

On this day in 1862 during the American Civil War, the ironclads Monitor and Virginia (formerly Merrimack) battled in the harbor at Hampton Roads, Virginia, marking the beginning of a new era of naval warfare.

Today is the birthday of writer John McPhee (b. 1931), a master of creative nonfiction. One of McPhee’s most widely read books is Coming into the Country, which eloquently describes the Alaskan wilderness.

March 9th is the birthday of Cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin – the first man to ever travel in space. He was born in 1934 and died in the crash of a MiG-15-UTI fighter on March 27, 1968.

—

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 105 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

—

More than $800,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. We recently polled blog readers, asking for suggested article topics. Refer to that poll if you haven’t yet chosen an article topic. Round 105 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.