Odds ‘n Sods:

The Daily Reckoning’s Justice Litle comments on the world after the dollar collapses

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It just occurred to me that the recent jump in fuel prices will hurt the mining sector, cutting into their profitability. Just as gold and silver are going into a bull cycle, the cost of production for the miners is going up. Thus, gold and and silver mining stocks will not show quite the magnitude of gains that they otherwise would have. This is just another reason to invest in physical metals rather than in precious metals stocks or mutual funds.

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I’ve heard that The Pre-1899 Specialist still has a few original Model 1893 Mausers for sale. Two different SurvivalBlog readers have told me that they are having their local gunsmiths turn them into .308 Winchester scoped sporters. That concept appeals to my inherent contrariness: an “antique” rifle, available by mail order with no Federal paperwork required, that ends up in a modern caliber. Tres cool.

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A U.S. Border Patrol agent speak out against illegal immigration.

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Wow! Did you see that gold closed at $720 per ounce, and silver at $14.90 yesterday? It is clear that the precious metals bull is gaining speed. My friend the Chartist Gnome tells me that if the closing number for silver stays above $15 for three consecutive market days in New York, then Phase II of the silver short squeeze will come into play. I am told that this likely means the next stop for silver won’t be until it is $18.25 per ounce! (I will reserve his comments on Phase III of the short squeeze until a later date. They are pretty wild.) Buckle your seatbelt. We are in for a roller coaster ride. Look for more stair stepping, punctuated by some sharp sell-offs as this bull market continues. The brief bouts of profit taking might again bring spot silver down under $12 per ounce. Don’t let the sell-offs frighten you. Instead, think of them as buying opportunities.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“So, we can say that, yes, the Dow has been in a bull market since October 2002 in dollar terms, but it has been in a bear market in gold terms. This is an important point to understand. In case we should experience continuous monetary inflation, which could lift, over time, all asset prices such as stocks, real estate, and commodities, some asset classes will increase more in value than others. This means that some asset classes while rising in value could deflate against other asset classes, such as happened with the Dow against gold since year 2000. – Marc Faber, writing at GloomBoomDoom.com, April, 2006, as quoted at SafeHaven.com



Letter Re: Backup Generators, Well Pump Power, Cisterns and Sandpoint Wells

Hi James,
In reviewing the post by “Redclay” I think he brings a point that many people struggle with. Especially those of us who are just starting to prepare, but can easily get overwhelmed financially and mentally with all there is to do to be prepared. I have read SurvivalBlog since the beginning and don’t recall any truly affordable options for powering a 220 volt AC well pump. Below are some ideas that I have. See what you think.
A brief journey back through time would shed some valuable lessons for all of us. The western settlers on up through most of our grandparents generation. Water has always been there, it was simply a matter of what you had to do to gather it. A large collection system is right there right above your head, it is your roof. Most of the piping is already there, (called your gutters). In the past, every farm I have visited had one of those “notorious” cisterns to collect water in (from the gutters). It is probably a health department violation to have one in town, as underground storage tanks are regulated, but nothing has been said about an above ground containment. Isn’t it a pain that gutters are so low to the ground, (like when you mow around them)? How about a few hundred well spent dollars on a poly-tank that could hold many hundreds if not thousands of gallons of water. It is a above ground cistern that won’t throw your back out digging it. Slide that baby close to the house, cut off your downspout high enough that you can divert water into the top of this tank, (maybe even add a splice that makes you ready to go when the time comes, but keeps your gutter down low until then. Throw in the proper amount of bleach or purification tablets, run the drinkable through a filter such as a Katadyn or Berkey, boil the cooking water and you have just utilized what God has provided to you.
Collection is preparation. Large tanks make use of the infrequency of rain. Come time for winter, you better be thinking ahead, but insulation in adequate amounts may get you well into winter without having to melt snow for moisture.
Rain water may never be enough based on your climate to amount to much, so you may think you don’t need a large collection basin. But think about how often you would have to run your generator to keep up with your daily needs. Talk about in-efficiency. You not only waste fuel, but you may very well give away your preparedness to some passer-by(by the constant running of your generator). My opinion is that you would be better served pumping 1,000 gallons at a time rather than 5 or 10. In a TEOTWAWKI situation, you would need lookouts to monitor any un welcomed two legged varmint while making the extra noise, but several hours of the generator running once a month is less predictable than 1/2hr every day in my opinion.
Back to the topic of backup well power. Since it is more common to have a 220V pump and the amps needed for startup are fairly large, one may be better off to scrap the pump idea and improvise. My well is about 200 feet deep. The [static] water level in my well is around 60 feet. how about three 20 foot lengths of 1-1/4″ PVC glued together and secured (as to not fall down the well) with an adaptor that would fasten to a standard sump pump, or pit pump, (not to be confused with an ejector pump or trash pump). Un-bolt the cap to your well, snap your sump pump on top of your PVC, plug it in to your 1,000 watt portable generator and let it hum away all day while filling your storage tank. If your casing was large enough or your water level shallow enough, you may be able to sub-merge the pump and leave it in place.
The idea may not be of merit as one would likely have to shop around for a unique pump that can either pull or push a greater distance than normal, but,… I am sure they are available. If a 1-1/4″ PVC has simply too much volume to pull water that far, consider adapting down to 1/2″ as that is all the larger the copper lines in your home are (as a standard anyway) that run to your shower or sink. My unfounded thoughts are that you could greatly increase the depth of your draw if the volume, (i.e.- weight) was considerably less. Someone with a hydraulics background could help shed some light on this for us.
In the latter scenario, I would venture a guess of $200 for a pump, (long lasting cast iron, much cheaper are available): $30 for PVC, $10 fittings, and $10 for an extension cord.
Some pumps actually attach to a garden hose which would make a quick and easy improvised water transfer pump. It may be worth while to soak the pump in bleach until use, or for several hours before use to cut down on contamination. Either way, this is a consideration for times of need, not for times of convenience.
For others in high water table regions, a sand point well, (a mesh formed into a cone attached to pipe driven into the ground by a hand held post driver or sledgehammer and block), you may not need much of anything to get to water.
As I mentioned, these are ideas that I have not tried, but may be an inexpensive way to draw water on a limited budget. Sparking a new thought process in someone before an emergency may save their life. The blog has sure helped me! – The Wanderer

JWR Replies: I think that you find that the practicable lifting limit for most sump type pumps is less than 30 feet. A small jet type pump (such as those used in spas and hot tubs) will lift water much higher, but of course they draw more current than a typical sump pump. OBTW, don’t skimp on pipe. Use at least schedule 40 PVC pipe. Both the lighter gauge white PVC pipe and the thin wall black pipe that you see for sale at your local Home Depot is intended for less demanding applications like garden sprinkler systems. A cracked sprinkler pipe is a mere inconvenience, but a cracked pipe inside your house, or for any part of your drinking water supply could have serious consequences.



Letter Re: Discontinued BayGen Clock Drive Radios

Mr. Rawles,
Some of your readers may have the BayGen Freeplay [hand crank clock drive] AM/FM/SW radio that they are saving for that “rainy day”, or may be new to the emergency preparedness mindset and looking for a similar wind up radio. I purchased my Bay Gen about six years ago for around $100 and used it about that many (100) hours. A few weeks ago the mechanism that regulates the internal generator speed started to deteriorate, then went completely out. I contacted the manufacturer/distributor and they referred me to Dixie Sales Co., the US distributor. I was informed by them that that radio is no longer made and no parts are available. A repair or replacement was not possible. The lesson learned is to (1) avoid this brand (2) purchase a radio that has multiple power supply abilities. One radio I saw advertised recently had wind up, solar, and battery power options, and cost about $70 before shipping. I’m saving my pennies. Thank you for all the information on your web site. – C.G. in NC

JWR Replies: I think you simply had bad luck with your BayGen. I bought mine is 1998 and it is still going strong after at least 400 hours of hand crank use (mainly outdoors, while the Memsahib and I have been doing gardening and other chores), and well over 1,000 hours of use with an AC adapter. Perhaps some other readers would like to chime in–either to agree or disagree, based on their own experience. Maybe I was just lucky…

You might want to look for a another BayGen on eBay, and save your old one to cannibalize for spare parts. (Such as the whip antenna–which BTW is the only part on mine that I’ve ever damaged.) OBTW, the last that I heard, Yellowstone River Trading still had some left in inventory, even though they are no longer manufactured.

I should also mention one important proviso: Most of the less expensive hand crank radios that are currently on the market are made in China and are not sturdy enough for daily use. The much larger/heavier BayGen can generally handle heavy use.



Letter Re: Withdrawing My Retreat Real Estate Ad — I’m Moving Overseas

 

Jim,
I regret the withdrawal of my advertising but I can no longer do it because the housing bubble has burst and this is not a good time to buy any real estate. I would urge your readers to consider renting and investing heavily in precious metals, including FMJ. I am calling the ball and making plans to leave the country possibly in the next 6-to-12 months. The dollar is in a fatal spiral and all dollar-denominated assets are in a freefall. There is no stepping away from the financial ruin the politicians and a willing sheeple have visited upon the Republic. All these years the survival community has asked the question: “Is the end of the world here yet?” We have arrived. Welcome to Depression Two. In case you failed to notice, the storm clouds are now overhead. – Bill Buppert



Odds ‘n Sods:

SurvivalBlog reader R.B.S. told us about a great new site that covers Second Amendment issues: Firearms News. They also host a very useful directory of links to firearms-related web site links.

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A reader told me that he saw SurvivalBlog mentioned in the description for a current eBay auction of a CRKT tanto point folding knife.

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The New Euro-denominated Oil Bourse: Iran signs its own death warrant.

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NoNAIS.org has a very good article about NAIS implementation: Mafia Style “Voluntary”







Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, and Silver

You may have read in recent years that both Microsoft’s president Bill Gates and Berkshire Hathaway (founded and still led by Warren Buffet) acquired large hoards of physical silver when silver prices neared their low ebb in the late 1990s first few years of this decade. Bill Gates purchased at least $10 million worth, with his “personal investment money.” Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway bought 129.7 million ounces. According to published accounts, the latter bought their silver at $4.40 per ounce, in 1997. The recent news on Wall Street is that Berkshire Hathaway has quietly sold off their silver position in the past year. One of my favorite economists, Jason Hommel, opined that Warren Buffet sold his silver too soon. Given the timeframe of their sales, we can presume that Berkshire Hathaway sold out when spot silver was between $9 and 12 per ounce. Hommel wrote: “This is very bullish for silver, because it explains why silver’s rise took longer than we thought (Warren was selling), and it also means that there is much less silver above ground than we thought. Buffet’s hoard of 130 million ounces no longer exists!”

At the same time that Berkshire Hathaway was selling their silver, iShares Silver Trust–the first of two newer silver exchange traded funds–started buying silver. To “fund the fund” they will need at least 100 million ounces. There one more silver ETF in development. And given the early success of iShares Silver Trust (stock symbol SLV) , I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two more silver ETFs jump on the band wagon.

As I recently mentioned, economist Jason Hommel presented some great silver market fundamentals, explaining why silver must rise. I think that he is correct in his analysis. With gold approaching $700 per ounce, and silver bouncing around $14.40, it is obvious that the precious metals bull is gaining speed.

Things don’t look good for the U.S. dollar–all through the rest of this decade and perhaps beyond. It is noteworthy the U.S. Dollar is again starting to lose ground to many foreign currencies. For example, a Canadian dollar now costs $0.90 USD. (Remember a few years back when they were making “Canadian Peso jokes? Not anymore!) With a progressively weaker dollar expected, I am quite bullish on silver. At anywhere under $16 per ounce, silver is a bargain. And at the current +/-$14.40 per ounce, it is a screaming buy. We may see silver at $20 per ounce by the end of Aught Six. There could be a full scale dollar crisis, precipitated by the out of control U.S. debt spiral. If that happens, then all bets are off for silver, as well as gold. Some economists in the “gold bug” camp have suggested prices as high as $100 per ounce silver and $5,000 per ounce gold!)

The bottom line: The bull market in precious metals is still in its early stages. Buy on the dips.



Letter Re: Lister Engines for Power Generation

James:
A site to be mentioned when it comes to slow speed diesels and the like is www.utterpower.com. I agree with the site linked – getting one of these small diesel engines is the hardest part in the process. Both the lister types and the small horizontal diesels (made in mainland China) appear on eBay.com from anywhere from $375 to $2000. Shipping is also a bit of a bear due to the high weights; [since] lots of cast iron is used on these. – Rick L.



Letter Re: Selecting the Right Size Home Backup Generator

Jim:
In response to the question about generator sizing, obviously it depends on how much you want to run. This also determines how much fuel you will burn. I don’t have the money for a 15KW whole house generator so I did things on the cheap. Hopefully my “system” will help with some ideas or trigger your own I have a 5KW “portable” gas model. Nothing fancy, fixed RPM, with a 5 gallon top tank. After several hurricane related power outages, I live on the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, I have developed a good system for me. My house is not pre-wired so I use two heavy gauge extension cords to run the 110 volt outlets into a kitchen window. I use a power strip to plug in the fridge and freezer on one outlet and run the second one for a 5000 BTU window air conditioner that I install after the storms if it gets unbearable. I have an infant so this is a real need. I can also plug in a coffee pot in the a.m. and a fan and a lamp at night. (the air conditioner gets its own cord due to power needs and its safer.) The air conditioner will cool my 400 square foot living room and we can all sleep there if needed.
Fuel consumption: I run the genny about 4-to-5 hours in the am to cool the fridge and freezer and make a pot of Joe. This uses about 1/2 gallon per hour. I pour the brewed coffee into a Thermos and then unplug the pot. If I need to run the air conditioning, my gas usage is about 1-1.25 gallons per hour. I run the genny for 2 4-5 hour shifts, morning and as it is getting dark. This cools the reefers twice a day. I want to get a 2-2.5 KW genny for when I am not using the air conditioner. Only used it once during Katrina in eight days. That should power the fridge/freezer and the coffee pot before I plug in the freezer, and a light and fan. This will decrease my fuel usage and let me run longer on stored fuel. It will also serve as a back-up in case one breaks down. I keep gas in five gallon cans and rotate it by refueling the wife’s car. About five cans a month keeps it fresh.
I keep about 45-50 gallons when [my vehicle tanks and cans are] full but I am raising this gradually. We supplement the lighting with battery fluorescent lanterns and have gas water heat but have to cook on the grill or use my brand new propane stove.
This is somewhat simple and not to fancy but it works on the cheap. By rationing my fuel I have avoided the gas lines. This is not the best system but it works for my family and it has been working since hurricane George in 1998. – Nightshift in Mississippi



Letter from Mr. Bravo Re: What Use is a Penny?

Jim,
A few weeks back, you covered the issue of pennies being more costly to produce than they are worth. Here is my Quixotic take on the issue:

Based on historical precedent, currency/coinage reform is overdue. The half-cent was discontinued in 1857, when it was worth ten cents in today’s inflation adjusted dollars! Source: Historical Statistics of the United States. (USGPO, 1975), Statistical Abstracts of the United States. That means that the smallest monetary unit at the time was worth $0.20 in today’s value. And a $100 bill (gold certificate) in 1863 had a value equal to nearly $2,000.

A penny in 1970 was worth the same as today’s nickel. Not only are pennies obsolete, but so are nickels. What earthly reason could there be for monetary increments less than the value of one minute of a minimum wage (~$6/hr) laborer’s time?

Proposal: Simplify currency and coinage to make transactions simpler. Drop the penny decimal place.

Notes: $500, 200, 100, 50, 20, 10, and 5
Coins: $5, 2, 1, 0.50, and 0.10

Better still, we should make all notes silver or gold certificates, and all coins of $1 and above silver. Best Regards, – Mr. Bravo.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Fuel Bank Offers “Locked In” Price for Gasoline. Meanwhile, Forbes reports,Venezuela Tacks on a New Oil Tax

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Ken Timmerman reports: Iran prepares al Qiyamah (“Judgment Day”) Terrorist Vengeance Attack Plan

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Zimbabwe: A Nation of Millionaires–Where $10 USD buys over $1 million in Zimbabwean toilet paper.

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SurvivalBlog reader “John Z.” mentioned a recent CNN segment about a survival school that’s offered in Virginia. After watching this clip, his conclusion was that Buckshot could offer a better much course that would include survival skills such traps, snares, and skinning game.

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I expect that there will be a lot of conversations around America’s office water coolers today regarding the made-for-television movie that aired last night: “Fatal Contact”. (It was about the Asian Avian Flu.) If just 5% of the American population puts two and two togther, then there will not be a lot of long term storage food available in the near future. Why? There are just a few companies that produce cans of proper nitrogen-packed dehydrated and freeze dried foods. Mark my words: Someday–perhaps sooner rather than later–those companies will be overwhelmed with orders.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“To my mind it is wholly irresponsible to go into the world incapable of preventing violence, injury, crime, and death. How feeble is the mindset to accept defenselessness. How unnatural. How cheap. How cowardly. How pathetic.” – Ted Nugent



Note from JWR:

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