Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Americans are the best entertained and the least informed people in the world." – Neil Postman, author, and NYU professor, Amusing Ourselves to Death, Penguin Books, 1985

Note from JWR:

There are just eleven days left in Round 2 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best contest entry will win a four day course certificate at Front Sight. (An up to $2,000 value!)  The deadline for entries for Round 2 is the last day of January, 2006. I also have some good news: Thanks to the generosity of Naish Piazza (the founder and director of Front Sight), we will be extending the writing contest for at least one more round! Round 3 will begin February 1st and end on the last day of March. We’ve already had plenty of motivational pieces submitted.  Please keep your contest entries focused on practical skills.  So start writing, folks!

If you know anyone that sells preparedness-related good or services, please ask them to advertise on SurvivalBlog.  Thanks.

Letter Re: Surplus Ultra-Cold Medical Storage Freezers

I have been watching the U.S. Government surplus auctions for ultra-cold medical storage freezers. This one (“KELVINATOR, MDL: UC50RFMS, LAB REFRIGERATOR”) recently sold for just three hundred bucks. See: http://cgi.govliquidation.com/auction/view?id=743367&convertTo=USD

Not a bad price at all. I hope that it went to some frugal individual who will be using it for long-term storage in the event of TEOTWAWKI! I’ve become hopelessly addicted to the
govliquidation.com site. Keep up the good work. A 10 Cent Challenge check is headed your way. – T.K.

Eric Roseman’s Commentary on the Inverted Yield Curve

The following are some excerpts from some commentary by Eric Roseman that was included in a recent issue of  The Sovereign Society’s Offshore A-Letter: When the rate of return for short term investments exceeds that of long term investments (the yield curve “inverts”), it is generally a sign of bad economic times ahead.

Over the last two years, investors have barely kept pace with inflation in benchmark intermediate term US Treasury bonds. After enjoying a massive rally since 2000, bond yields hit a 40 year low in 2003 at 3.3%. Despite thirteen Federal Reserve rate hikes since June 2004, bond yields have actually declined twenty basis points (0.20%), a worrisome signal Chairman Greenspan called a “conundrum” last fall. Yield curve inversion is a dangerous anomaly because it portends to economic weakness; the last three inversions all resulted in economic recessions.

Indeed, the bond market might be signaling big trouble for the US economy in 2006. The benchmark yield curve, or the difference between the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields, inverted in late December. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates yield more than long-term interest rates. This phenomenon is a rarity in bond markets and typically indicates that bond investors think the US Federal Reserve is tightening the monetary screws too aggressively. If this is the case, then there is a good chance that the United States might suffer a recession later this year, especially if the yield curve stays inverted. – Eric N. Roseman, Montreal, Quebec. Editor, Renegade Investor E-mail: enr@qc.aibn.com Web site: http://www.eas.ca

JWR Adds: If you do not yet already subscribe to The Sovereign Society’s Offshore A-Letter, then I highly recommend doing so. Subscriptions are free. See: http://www.sovereignsociety.com/

Odds ‘n Sods:

There is some very useful information on battlefield survival skills at this static web site: http://www.survivethewar.com.  Much of this info is applicable for preparedness-minded folks like you and me. Take a look.

  o o o

Gary North quoted sage economist John Templeton as stating that when the housing bubble pops, real estate house prices might decline as much as 90%.  Dr. North is less pessimistic. My personal view is that as the housing bubble collapses, “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke will be simultaneously cranking up the printing presses. The net effect will be that your house won’t go down significantly in dollar terms, but those dollars won’t buy even half as much in another five years. Charming.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again:  The second half of the “Aughts” will be a lot like the second half of the 1970s, with plenty of inflation.

  o o o

In a recent commentary, economic pundit Doug Casey recommends: “Stockpile beans, bullets, bullion, booze and barter items.” See: http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=485

  o o o

The Daily Reckoning reports that personal bankruptcies have hit an all time high in both the U.S. and England.  But they tell us that we are in the midst of an economic recovery. So how many bankruptcies will there be in the next recession?

Jim’s Quote of the Day

"On every question of construction, carry ourselves back to the time when the Constitution was adopted, recollect the spirit manifested in the debates, and instead of trying what meaning may be squeezed out of the text or invented against it, conform to the probable one in which it was passed." – Thomas Jefferson

Letter Re: Getting Your Group to Buy In: The $20 Medical Kit, By EMT J.N.

Mr. Rawles,
I enjoy reading your blog. It is full of useful information. I have a couple of suggestions to add to the 1-13-06 letter by EMT J.N.  Alacer (the makers of “Emer’gen-C”) has an prepackaged instant electrolyte mix available. Just mix with water and drink. ‘Electromix‘ is available at most health food store. It costs about 35 cents per packet. I also would not want to be without aloe vera for burns. Small tubes or bottles are not that much, but it is amazing stuff!! Some Aloe vera products have colorings and such in them; the ones without are much better especially for those who might have allergies to the additives. – Otto

JWR Replies: Electrolyte mixes for rehydration (a.k.a. Oral Rehydration Solutions) are crucial for treating stomach flus. If and when there is ever an influenza pandemic, dehydration caused by diarrhea will probably kill more people than the flu itself.

Along with Chamomile (Matricaria recutita) and Valerian (Valeriana officinalis), Aloe vera is one of the medicinal herbs that every family should grow at home.

Letter Re: Arming Your Untrained Neighbors

Dear Jim:
Straightblast brings up an excellent point about the many pitfalls of loaning weapons to untrained neighbors, after a crisis has hit, and thus potentially arming bad guys.
He wrote:”Frankly, it scares me. I look at it this way…if the neighbor has no guns (right now), and no gun skills…and the bad guys come to visit…what are the odds that he / she will prevail against them? I think close to zero.”  It scares me too! But I beg to differ that the chances for your neighbor are “close to zero.” Remember your average gang or criminal has not had any formal training. An untrained gang with some weapon experience versus an untrained neighbor BEHIND COVER is a least in the same ballpark as a fair fight – and looters are not looking for fair fights! And if, God forbid, the gang did overcome the neighbor – well the gang already had firearms, so one more gun is probably not that big a deal.
I’m more concerned about unsafe weapon handling, negligent discharges, and/or “friendly fire” from my neighbors than [I am about] the gang getting one more weapon.
In a really bad situation I would rather have one HASTILY TRAINED neighbor for fire support, than to be badly outnumbered by a gang with no fire support. (It is kind of tough to watch four quadrants with two people!) I think that a contingency plan so you have SEMI-trained, armed neighbors is a better option. (This assumes that a suggestion to do some “Tactical Crisis Training” would get the same look as if you just grown an extra head! 😉
Here are my thoughts on a contingency plan:
1. Invite your neighbors – and/or their kids – out for a social day plinking at the range. You can at least get basic gun safety and sight alignment concepts out. They might even get interested in shooting – reactive targets like falling plates, balloons or just tin cans are a blast. If this invitation gets a disgusted reaction, maybe moving now, or bugging out later, is a better option. Who needs gun-phobic neighbors?
2. Have some inexpensive, EASY TO USE, low-recoil firearms, magazines, ammo, AND web belts with mag pouches for your new “Neighborhood Watch on Steroids.” Pistol caliber carbines and .223s would be a good low recoil choice.
3. You might consider selling or bartering them the weapon “package” instead of giving it away, as gifts are often not treated with the same care as purchases. This also weeds out those who are not sufficiently motivated. Selling at a fair PRE-crisis price would be an act of charity which might just be appreciated.
4. Have a plan for a crash training [program for] your neighbors so that they can SAFELY handle their new weapon, and at least shoot from a fixed position, behind cover, to include:
   * The four rules of gun safety
   * Loading and unloading
   * Malfunction clearance
   * Basic sight alignment and trigger control
   * Understanding cover versus concealment
   * Be sure of your target and backstop!
Any more suggestions or comments would be appreciated, especially from instructors who deal with novices. Regards, – “OSOM” – Out of Sight, Out of Mind

Letter Re: Suppressors and .22 LR Conversion Kits for Rifles and Pistols

The Colt version for the 1911, chopped to Detonics length, on an alloy frame, recoils just as much as full size and with 9mm, saving you 10c a shot. An alloy compact 9mm 1911 variant recoils just as much as a full size and weight .45 ACP. This is great for training, saving you 10 cents a shot. A .223 AR-15, “wearing” an 8″ long, 12 ounce sound suppressor is every bit as “tame” sounding as the Ciener .22 LR unit without the suppressor. [Shooting .22 LR in training] saves you nearly 20 cents a shot, and permits practice at indoor ranges, and other places where the 223 would not be a good idea.

[For those of you with AR-15 family rifles and carbines], be advised that the .22 unit is not very accurate in an AR with 1 in 7″ rifling, is okay with 1 in 9″ rifling (the most versatile) and it typically shoots nice 2″ groups at 50 yards with 1 in 12″ rifling. The point of impact (POI) with 22 LR is plenty close enough (within 3″ at 50 yards) to that of the .223 to make it a fine training tool, and usually, it’s close enough for foraging small game. There’s a way to make the POI of the two [almost exactly the same], too, since the AR has two different “legs” on its [L-shaped flip] rear sight.

If it’s SHTF time, how will you know when it’s okay to have nothing more than a bolt action, a shotgun, or a .22 LR? Suppressors are superb aids in such conditions. I’d much rather have nothing more than ONE 10 round magazine and a suppressor for the CAR-15 (and  the .22 LR unit) than all the spare mags in the world, with a noisy gun.

With a scope, trigger job, free float tube, forend mounted bipod, and 69 grain HPBT match Sierra bullets, at 2500 FPS, [a CAR-15] gets more hits than misses on a 12″x24″ torso at 400 yards. Not bad for an Uzi-size and weight combo. With the assault sling, it need never be out of reach. Our forefathers found ways to always have 15 lbs of Flintlock, powder horn, and possibles bag at hand. The CAR-15 is concealable when disassembled. It comes down in 5 seconds, and can be assembled and firing in 10 seconds. The caliber swap is 20 seconds. With the 10.5″ barrel, (5.56 chamber) I use 27.0 grains of AA2520 to get the 60 grain Nosler Partition soft point to 2600+ fps, for 900 foot-pounds.

I favor a pair of lightweight compact pistols for SHTF times. One is a Beretta M21 .22 LR with an OAL of 9″, including the 3 ounce suppressor. The M21 is 11 ounces, with a .5″ longer barrel, available from GunsNStuff. The other pistol is a pocketable 9mm, rebarreled to 356 TSW, using a special, 55 grain AP bullet, at 2200 FPS, for 590 foot-pounds of energy. The “canned” .22 goes in the leg pocket of my BDU pants The centerfire always rides in a Kydex front pants pocket rig, with Velcro to secure the rig in the pocket. The total weight of the two pistols, holster, spare mags, and ammo, is 38 ounces. Since that’s lighter than an empty .45 Government Model, and the two guns offer much more versatility, they are a much better deal.

If a critter is so close that I can’t swap out to .22 LR, I can hit it with the Beretta. The M21 has been fitted with a PT22 Taurus mag, better sights, and an extractor. The pop-up barrel is a feature [of the] gun, courtesy of a pin thru both the frame and the barrel’s underlug. Take care. – P.P.L.

JWR Replies: Thanks for your knowledgeable comments, P.P.L. SurvivalBlog readers should be advised that there is a $200 Federal transfer tax for firearms sound suppressors (often incorrectly called “silencers”–they do not completely silence any gun), selective fire (fully automatic) guns, and short barreled rifles and shotguns here in the U.S. There are also additional state-enacted restrictions on full autos and suppressors in many states, such as California and Washington. Readers are strongly advised not to purchase or construct an unregistered suppressor. The risk of doing so is the loss of you gun ownership and voting rights for life, and many year behind bars. Don’t take that risk!  Keep in mind that purchasing a registered suppressor will raise your profile, both locally (since it will be your local sheriff or chief of police that will sign off on your license) and at the Federal level.  So you need to carefully weigh the risks versus benefits of doing so. Proceed down that path only after considerable thought and prayer.

Letter Re: Success in Treating Flu with Sambucol

Sir:
I thought I would let you also know that Sambucol works incredibly well. My youngest daughter started feeling bad last Wednesday night. It was the situation where she remarked that she felt a bit more tired than usual. Her physical activity is very good, and swim team practice was a bit more rigorous than usual because of an upcoming swim meet that was scheduled for Saturday. When she woke up Thursday morning she was running a fever and listless. Wednesday night I had talked to a friend who had used Sambucol and it helped his case of the flu. By about 2 PM Thursday afternoon her fever was 103.8! She took some Tylenol and I went in search of Sambucol, not expecting to find it because our town is somewhat small. I did find it a local organic market much to my surprise. I gave her the first dosage about 3 PM or so. Before I gave the dose to her I took her temperature and her fever had only dropped by a few tenths of a degree after the Tylenol. After the dose of Sambucol I took her temperature about and hour and a half later. Her temperature had dropped to about 101.6. A little later in the evening she got up and ate a little, and remained up for about two hours. By morning her temperature had dropped to about 100.8. I kept following the dosage directions and she actually sat up most of the day Friday. By Friday evening her temperature was normal. She had received only the one dose of Tylenol on Thursday. I kept giving her the Sambucol per directions throughout the day. On Saturday morning she said she felt that she could swim in a couple shorter events. I gave her the last dose of Sambucol before the swim meet as a ‘just in case’ measure. She said her energy was lower than normal, which was to be expected, but she did manage to swim in the meet. I know that scientifically this would be called anecdotal evidence. But if this is any indication of the effectiveness of Black Elderberry extract [Sambucol] on the immune system’s ability to fight off a flu virus, then it is definitely the most effective medication/nutritional supplement I have ever seen. I am definitely keeping a supply on hand, probably in lozenge form because of the expiration date is longer. As for the taste of Sambucol, if my daughter will take it willingly then no one should have a problem getting his or her kids to take it. It has a very light taste she said that reminded her of grape juice. While I took care of her I took one teaspoon on Thursday and one on Friday as a preventative for me. And I never got the feeling I was coming down with the flu from being in so close a proximity to her. Thanks for your time Mr. Rawles, – The Rabid One

Letter Re: Some Points About Pistol and Rifle Magazines and Their Springs

Jim:
I’m glad that one of your readers wrote in to advise against stretching magazine springs. I can also add that when a replacement of any weakened (shortened) coil spring is not available, there is an alternative: Find a rod to use as a mandrel within the spring, and tap with a hammer to slightly flatten the coils against the rod as you work your way around. This will lengthen the spring, without creating the kind of strength-impairing deformations that stretching will cause. – Mr. Bravo

Note from JWR:

Please take the time to visit the web sites for all of our advertisers. They sell high quality products and services that are particularly suited for folks that are interested in preparedness, at competitive prices. These advertisers showed enough faith in SurvivalBlog to purchase advertisements, so please take the time to look at what they have to offer. Also, keep in mind that their product offerings do change, so be sure to re-visit their sites regularly to see what is new, and any special sale pricing. Thanks!

Letter Re: My Wife Ignores My Preparedness Goals

I can not seem to get my wife focused on what needs to be done [for preparedness] and accomplished. I think that she, at some level, believes that change is in the wind but for some reason she doesn’t see the need for a timely accomplishment of tasks. – “Indiana Jones”

The Memsahib Replies: Your wife no doubt has seem the signs of decay: the ever increasing bureaucracy taking away our freedoms, the moral debasement of the culture, and no doubt you have been pointing out to her the signs of economic chaos. Yes, she can intellectually agree with you that America is changing for the worse. But, does she want to believe that it is actually collapsing? NO! Which is why she doesn’t see the need for a timely accomplishment of preparedness goals.
But, why won’t she face reality, you wonder? She may say that it is only YOUR reality! She has lots of reasons for not internalizing YOUR reality.
First, your view goes against what her parents and community have taught her since she was a child: That America is the greatest nation on earth and that everyone can achieve the American dream of wealth, peace, and security. She was looking forward to a house with the white picket fence and a rose garden. You want her to trade it in for a bunker with steel shutters! To accept your reality is to give up on a cherished dream of a life of ease and contentment.
Secondly, her family probably thinks you are a little nutty or maybe even a real whacko depending on how much you’ve shared with them. Her family has no doubt questioned some of your choices. They may have even counseled her that she can’t depend on you to make rational decisions. To go along with your world view is to forsake the approval of her parents. (My own father once said to me, “You don’t really believe that do you? You’re just going along with it to humor Jim, right?”)
Third, maybe she is secretly afraid that if she encourages you, then you won’t know where to stop, and you will move the family to a Unabomber shack with no phone, electricity or running water. Have you gone overboard in the past with preparedness purchases when she has offered the slightest encouragement? It might help if you had a finite list of supplies you plan to buy so that your wife could see that your survival purchases are not endless. Some husbands freak their wives out when they buy supplies as if they are stocking the whole neighborhood, and not just the family. When a friend of ours mentioned to his wife that he was planning to buy some ammo, his wife pictured three or four boxes, instead he purchased twelve battle packs (1,920 rounds!) Your wife might be afraid if she gives an inch you’ll take a mile!
Be mindful of all that you are expecting of your wife when you ask her to accept your view that this is the end of the world as we know it. She is giving up on her dreams and giving up the approval of her family. And finally let her know that she can trust you not to go overboard or surprise her with your preparations.

Letter Re: The Real Shelf Life of Prescription Medications

Hi Jim,
You may already know about this, but if not, I think you and your readers will find it useful. The following link http://www.mercola.com/2001/feb/7/drug_expiration.htm tells of a study the U.S. Air Force requested 15 plus years ago to determine the shelf life of it’s inventory of medicine. The USAF was concerned about having to dump and restock millions of dollars worth of pharmaceuticals. The upshot is, the study proved most medicines are still good way beyond their printed expiration date. This was good news for one of my sons, who requires a daily prescription for his condition. I have researched his prescription in detail and discovered that his medicine is still viable for two years past the expiration date. As a result, I have stocked up on several weeks of his medicine to see him through should something happen to prevent us from replenishing his prescription. What really irks me was the FDA‘s attitude about not pushing Drug companies to extent the expatriation dates to benefit the consumer: “It’s not the job of the FDA to be concerned about a consumer’s economic interest.” It would be up to Congress to impose changes, he says. As things stand now, expiration dates get a lot of emphasis. For instance, there is a campaign, co-sponsored by some drug retailers, that urges people to discard pills when they reach the date on the label.” Talk about your planned obsolescence for making a profit!

Of course, one should be very careful about storing and using any drug past it’s expiration date–Certain antibiotics can be dangerous. Exposure to heat, moisture, etc., can degrade medications [shortening their shelf life.] Be sure to check with your physician, keep a record of what the medication is used for, and store them properly. All in all, it’s good to know that you can keep leftovers from certain prescriptions as part of your emergency preparedness gear. Keep up the great site! – R.S.