Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long." – Congressman Ron Paul, August 9, 2004



Note from JWR:

Tomorrow is the last day of bidding in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a pair of MURS band handheld transceivers, with extended range flex antennas. The high bid is still at $175. These radios were kindly donated by Rob at $49 MURS Radios. Check out his products. What Rob sells are a lot of radio for the money. I’ve heard nothing but rave reviews from the SurvivalBlog readers that have bought these. As previously mentioned in the blog, Kenwood 2 watt MURS handhelds have far better range than FRS radios, they require no license, and can be custom programmed for, MURS, 2 Meter Band frequencies and/or weather warning (WX, receive only) channels, and they are also compatible with alert message frequencies for Dakota Alert intrusion detection systems. (A license is required if using 2 Meter Band frequencies.) I strongly endorse these hand-helds! If you don’t already own a pair, look into getting some.



State and Federal Lands–Poor Choices for Short Term Retreat Locales

I often have people ask me if state or Federally-managed forest land or BLM land would be a viable place to take temporary or long term shelter in the event of of a societal collapse. There might be exceptions, but my blanket assertion is no, that is a bad idea for even a temporary retreat locale. Here is my rationale:

Access: Access is a huge issue. Public lands are intended for visits, not residence.Odds are that if you make camp on state or Federal land, men with badges and guns will arrive within a couple of weeks and forcibly send you packing. In bad times, the local land owners will not want any perceived “riff raff” residing in the nearby public lands. The “we/they paradigm” dictates that the locals will lump all newcomers and assorted straphangers–good and bad–together into the category of “undesirables.” So assume that the locals will make the call to report any new forest land interlopers. In extremis, they might even take matters in their own hands.

There is also no guarantee that once you get in to public lands that you can get out. Many roads inside forest lands are not maintained in winter. Depending on the latitude and elevation, this could mean getting truly “snowed in” for the winter. And, depending on the depth of your larder and your available fuel for heating, you might not have chances any better than the ill-fated Donner Party. (But by the same token, if you have a lot of food and fuel, then getting snowed it would be a good thing . (Snow-blocked roads will insure your privacy.)

Shallow larder: It goes without saying that if your family arrives with only what it can carry in a couple of vehicles, then you won’t have a long term food supply. One of the greatest advantages of a fixed-site retreat is the “deep larder.” A deep larder can make up for a bad season of gardening, or a bad season of hunting. But a shallow larder leaves no margin for error. I’ve often said that the last category that you want to be in when the Schumer Hits the Fan is “refugee.” If you are traveling light, then you are just one step away from homeless/unprovisioned/refugee status.

Hunting pressure: In the event of a full scale economic collapse or a major natural disaster, there will suddenly be a lot of people trying to subsist on wild game, year round. The hunting pressure on the wild game flocks and herds will be tremendous. I anticipate that in most states in CONUS–except perhaps for parts of Idaho and Montana–the game will get both heavily thinned and badly spooked. After just a few months it will probably be difficult to hunt with any reliable chance of success. Furthermore, hunting on public lands may become a dangerous proposition. It is not too difficult to envision that in TEOTWAWKI, someone that is really desperate might see bagging you as their opportunity to return to their camp with both meat and a nice new rifle.

Security: This is the biggest risk. A cluster of tents or vehicles is almost impossible to effectively defend against attack by determined looters. It takes mass to stop bullets. (I presume that if someone had the money that it would take to buy a couple of military surplus APCs, then they would also have the budget for a nice cozy retreat property. Hence, anyone camping on public lands probably isn’t going to be in an up-armored conveyance.) Here is the basic problem: Since you cannot legally build any structures or even fell any trees on public land (except with a firewood cutting permit), you will have no substantive ballistic protection. The alternative of camouflaging yourself by hiking in to camp a remote area might have some merit. But then, away from your vehicles, your larder would by necessity be even shallower. It is also difficult to avoid the smoke from campfires being spotted from a long distance. Yes, you could “cold camp”, but that would be even less comfortable. If you try to go totally “low profile” out in public forest lands then you will fare no better than those using the “Batman in the Boondocks” approach that I previously discussed (and dismissed) in both SurvivalBlog and in my non-fiction book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation.

All of the foregoing does totally not rule out some hardy soul finding a way to make camping on public lands viable. With sufficient planning it could be done in a truly remote area. Yes, you could conceivably cache a large quantity of food, smokeless fuel (such as propane), tools, tentage, and supplies. But to be ready for a “one trip bugout” in a WTSHTF situation, this would only be practicable if you cached all of that gear well in advance. And that brings up a while ‘nother set of problems, including curious bears, persistent wood rats, and some serious legal issues. (Caching any private property anywhere on public land, is to the best of my knowledge illegal and not advised!)

Nor does the foregoing rule out buying a small parcel of land that adjoins state forest land, BLM land, or national forest land. This a great way to have a “big backyard” both for hunting and to provide a buffer from population. For example, here at the Rawles Ranch, we have contiguous public land on two sides, giving us far more privacy, wood cutting, and hunting opportunities than we could otherwise afford. Here in The Unnamed Western State (TUWS), a one firewood cutting permit from the forest service still costs just $5 per cord. (Actually, you have to buy a minimum of a four cord permit, for $20. The maximum that the forest service will sell is a 10 cord permit.)

The bottom line: Using state or national forest lands just isn’t a viable alternative for 99% of us. If you can’t afford to buy a retreat of your own, then you should team up with an existing retreat group, or form a new group, and pool your resources. The only other decent alternatives that I can see are “bugging in” (which has serious drawbacks in a full scale societal collapse), or depending on the good graces of some country cousins.



Letter Re: Observations on the Recent Missouri Ice Storm

Mr. Rawles,
I live in Southwestern Missouri. Did you followed the ice storm that buried the Midwest? We got hit pretty hard. We get hit hard every four or five years. Which brings me to my point. I have never seen so many unprepared people in all my life.

After day two of the ice storm power was out (for a month in a lot of places like Springfield). There were no gas cans to be found at any store. Batteries, disposable propane bottles, flashlights, milk, and meat were missing from the shelves of every store. Even Wally World [Wal-Mart] was bare. Kerosene shot up to as much as six dollars a gallon just before the pumps went dry. And generators? Forget it. Blood sucking companies were trucking in generators in 18 wheelers then selling them in parking lots for outrageously inflated prices.

I work part time at a nation wide auto parts store so I got to see some ground level action. Folks were buying seven dollar flashlights just for the two D cell batteries in them. I watched a guy buy a twenty dollar torch kit just for the three dollar bottle of propane it came with. I know we’re not talking about TEOTWAWKI or WTSHTF. We’re just talking about a relatively short period of time without any utilities and day to day comforts.

It was business as usual at my place. We had plenty of food, warmth, and lights.

I have several ceiling mounted light fixtures in my house with 12 volt/75 watt bulbs in them. Two batteries in the garage power them. I used my fireplace for heat. I have Plenty of stored water. I keep lots of those disposable propane bottles around for my lantern and cook stoves. A gas stove and a gas hot water heater are a must. I would never own a home with an electric kitchen. A few number 10 cans of bulk food, a few MREs, and even some frozen meats and foods took care of our meals. My scanner and my Wife’s small palm sized TV kept us informed of the weather and police activity in our area.

We never missed work, we never missed any meals, we never missed a hot shower, and we never got cold. All because of a few simple things I did years ago. What I did wasn’t expensive, hard, or complicated. Any one can do it.

[Odds are that] in another four or five years we will be hit by another devastating ice storm. I hope that the folks around here have learned something. – Bob F. in Missouri



Letter Re: Supporting SurvivalBlog

Jim,
I’d just like to exhort readers to invest whatever modest sum they can in helping to keep SurvivalBlog up and running–stepping up to the Ten Cent Challenge or whatever other means of providing support they feel up to.

There’s nothing else of this type and quality out there on the web, and if folks think that anyone can live on the paltry ad fees you collect for the site, then they are obviously not aware of the details.

It’s to all of our benefit that you have given this your best shot–committing your full attention to making sure your readers get the best advice in survival available. I know well what it must take for you–I am, in similar fashion, trying to keep Safecastle LLC moving forward. It’s a load and a half, and if you don’t have a similarly dedicated and understanding client/reader base to help you with your vision, then ultimately, it can all disappear.

Yes, I’m an advertiser here. You could say I have my own reasons for wanting SurvivalBlog to succeed. But that would be a bit too cynical. My own view is that all of us with a mind to help others prepare are on the same team. There’s a lot of work to do out there, and none of us can make a dent in it by ourselves.
Stay strong and on the path! – Vic at Safecastle



Odds ‘n Sods:

I don’t know how I overlooked it for so long, but I should have mentioned that there is a great web resource on post-Peak Oil living at Life After the Oil Crash (LATOC), hosted by California attorney Matt Savinar. They also have their own Forums, which are quite active. See: The LATOC Forums.

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Mike F. sent this article link: Mystery Ailment Strikes U.S. Honeybees. Apiary expert “The Bee Man, Jr.” tells SurvivalBlog: “The CCD (Colony Collapse Disorder) is a real and devastating threat to our nation’s food supply and economy. At this time, there are few indicators what actually CCD is. We know the result of the infection. There seems to be signs of fungal, bacterial and viral infections found during dissection. As of this moment, the vector is unknown. Most small Beekeepers are doing everything possible to save their hives from using essential oils to massive doses of antibiotics.” He also mentioned: “The pollination of human food, Ethanol-based fuels and animal feed (this includes wildlife feed) is in jeopardy. The only thing I can recommend at this time is to pray a “cure” is found and stock up on a good supply of “raw” honey. It’ll keep for a long time!

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“The Werewolf”–our correspondent in Brazil–sent us this link: RioBodyCount.com.br. His comment: “It´s sad, but the turmoil in Rio de Janeiro has become so ugly that an NGO created a counter. The counter only shows the results of gun fights (bad guys, good guys, policemen, children…) For those that don’t speak Portuguese: “Fevereiro” = February”, “Mortos” = Dead, and “Feridos” = Wounded.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The monastic communities for survival will be located in high places, because in dangerous times it is heights that are easiest to defend. They enable the advance of hostile hordes to be seen from a distance and prepared for; and they favor the traditional counter- attacks that are helped by force of gravity — the rolling down of rocks and stones against assailants. Further, hilltops are naturally protected against floods; they are also very likely to be left alone by the large masses of people on the move, since migrant hordes are inclined to go after easy prey rather than undertake an arduous siege of doubtful outcome." – Roberto Vacca, The Coming Dark Age



Note from JWR:

I’m continuing my special “support our troops:” sale on copies of the new expanded 33 chapter edition my novel “Patriots” through the end of the month. If you place an order directly with me, and you have us mail it to an APO or FPO address, then the price is just $12 per copy, plus $3 postage. (That is $10.99 off of the cover price–right near my cost.) OBTW, speaking of supporting our troops, be sure to visit the AnySoldier.com web site, and “do your bit.” As previously mentioned, some young enlisted troops that are deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan get no mail from home, so anything that you can send them–even just a postcard–is appreciated. I now offer a couple of additional payment options for book orders: both AlertPay and GearPay. (I prefer AlertPay or GearPay because they don’t share PayPal’s anti-gun political agenda.) In my experience, AlertPay has a frustratingly labyrinthine account set-up procedure, but GearPay seems much quicker and easier to set up.
Our AlertPay address is: rawles@usa.net
Our GearPay address is: rawles@usa.net
Our PayPal address is: rawles@earthlink.net



Kanban: America’s Ubiquitous “Just in Time” Inventory System–A Fragile House of Cards

When I give lectures or do radio interviews, I’m often asked for proof when I mention that we live in a “fragile society.” Here is one prime example: kanban. The kanban or “just in time” inventory system was developed in Japan, and became popular in America starting in the 1970s. It is now ubiquitous in nearly every industry. The concept is simple: Through close coordination with subcontractors and piece part suppliers, a manufacturer can keep its parts inventory small. (Kanban is a key element of “lean manufacturing.”) They only order batches of parts as needed (“just in time”), sometimes ordering as frequently as twice a week. Companies now hire Six Sigma consultants and Kaizen gurus, they buy sophisticated data processing systems, and they hire extra purchasing administrators. But these expenses actually save them money at the bottom line. I have a close friend, “B.A.”, that has worked as a lean process consultant, and he chimed in on a draft of this article that I sent him last weekend. (See his interspersed notes.) “Just in time” inventory systems have several advantages: Less warehouse space, less capital tied up in parts inventory, and less risk of parts obsolescence.

B.A. Adds: Actually, in many cases, if the simplest [lean process] methods are revealed through asking the “5 Whys” and understanding optimum flow, the sophistication (including data processing systems) can often be greatly reduced or eliminated; I think the perception is that complexity is better is often a sales job from folks selling the hardware and software!

The downside is that lean inventories leave companies vulnerable to any disruption of supply. If transportation gets snarled, or if communications get disrupted, or a parts vendor has a strike or a production problem, then assembly lines grind to halt. Just one missing part means that no finished products go out the door. In some industries, the complexity and length of the supply chain can be staggering. Some manufacturers of complex products-such as automobiles–now rely on many dozens of parts vendors on several continents. American businessmen have built very big, very complex, very vulnerable supply chains.

The kanban concept has also been taken up by America’s retailers, most notably its grocery sellers. In the “old days”–say 20 years ago–grocery stores had well-stocked “back rooms”, with many extra cases of dry goods. But now in most stores the “back room” has been replaced with just a pallet break-down area. Merchandise comes in from distribution centers, and it all goes immediately to the consumer shelves out front. Thus, what you see on the grocery store shelf is all that the store has on hand. What you see is what you get. The bar code scanners at the checkout counters feed a complex re-ordering system. If Mrs. Jones buys three bottles of pasta sauce, that could trigger a re-order. (Even the U.S. Military has embraced some “lean” techniques in their maintenance and logistics infrastructures, and saved taxpayers millions of dollars.) As long as communications and transportation work smoothly, then the entire system hums along like a Swiss watch.But what happens when the transportation infrastructure gets disrupted?

B.A. Adds: One of the 9 Wastes (I added one of my own 🙂 is excess Transport. Ideally, a systemic approach to manufacturing will co-locate (in theory) to the point where no transportation, or even movement is required, so transportation is one of the “nasties” that effective lean thinking tends to eliminate; here are the 8 Wastes (to which I would add “E” for Energy to the TIM WOODS acronym, which now becomes TIMEWOODS 🙂
Transport (excess)
Inventory (excess)
Motion
Energy
Waiting
Overproduction
Overprocessing
Defects
Skills, Savvy, Smarts (squandering the inherent genius in all people involved)

One of the factors that has strongly encouraged lean inventories is that many states levy an annual tax on business inventories of finished good or sometimes even semi-finished subassemblies. Also, under the Federal tax law, businesses must “keep an inventory and use the accrual method for purchases and sales of merchandise.” As is the case with most other government intervention in the free market, this is another “unintended consequence.” Businessmen hate paying a nickel more in tax than they absolutely have to, so by keeping their inventory small, they avoid the taxes. In some states like California, it is not unusual to see annual “inventory reduction” sales, timed for the month before before the annual inventory tax is levied.

The big “lean machine” works great in normal times. But in times of economic instability, or following a natural disaster, the machine can’t cope. Panic buying can clean out supermarket shelves in a matter of hours. And again, in most cases there is no longer a “back room” with extra inventory. The important lesson in all this is to be prepared. DO NOT count on being able to buy anything to provide for your family on TEOTWAWKI Day +1. Stock up.

B.A. Adds: “Good points, although I’d emphasize the caveat of stocking up (where it makes sense) on the items that you know you will personally use, and you have the space to store, and that won’t suffer any significant shelf-life deterioration, spoilage or nutritional loss (whole grain, water, honey, et cetera.) Also, have some silver for barter currency, [to trade for the items that you overlooked or that you didn’t stock in sufficient depth.]”

Also, while the sensitivity and stability of authentic lean manufacturing and production (as is practiced … or not in many cases) is of some concern, one emphasis that lean senseis make is flexibility and responsiveness, so that, for example, mixed inventory models can respond almost instantaneously to changes in demand (and the intent is to hone the bidirectional speed of communication so that the entire supply web is informed at a much quicker rate to adjust).
The concerns you raise are valid. However, as in so many areas of life, the optimum solutions are not either/or, but both/and. In the case of dependence on technologies such as computer and telecommunication networks, the initial concentration of processing power (mainframes) has given way to vastly distributed, parallel and redundant systems that are far more tolerant of disruptions than ever before.



Letter Re: Pondering Some Personal Consequences of Global Climate Change

Jim,
The subject of Global Warming is one that creates an intense reaction in people who have a political investment in opposition to it. As you can see by the letters my comment generated, it made the writers so angry that it actually interfered with their ability to read! We, as survivalists, need to be acutely aware of when this happens to us, as the ability to react to any information coolly and logically is a cultivated adaptation that will give us a leg-up in stressful situations.
In reply to M.W.A., I should probably expand on something about CO2 that I only touched on for brevity’s sake. Contrary to how it might seem to us laymen, not all CO2 is the same, which is why I talked about man-made CO2’s “distinct isotopic signature”. The Carbon component of Carbon Dioxide is composed of three different isotopes (C14, C13, C12) and man-made CO2 has an identifiable ratio of these isotopes. Lest anyone think that the proofs of Global Warming are generated only by climate scientists, these isotopic ratios are recorded by those in many varied scientific disciplines (such as oceanographers and geochemists) and the results consistently concur with the basic premise, that increasing man-made CO2 levels parallel with increasing global temperatures. The collection of data like this has long been a characteristic of science and has nothing to do with attempts to control anyone or anything, as implied by M.W.A. As to the semantics of “Global Warming deniers”, we’re speaking of a very small group of dissenters, almost devoid of scientists (let alone ones working in the sciences associated with the earth’s climate). Even the Bush administration, after repeatedly rejecting (and attempting to suppress) the conclusions of the scientific community, just this week said that they wholeheartedly embrace the U.N.’s IPCC report (which concluded that Global Warming is man-made) and called the evidence for Global Warming “unequivocal”. Anyone who clings to the notion that this is nothing more than a ruse invented by environmentalists belongs to a tiny minority at this point. By the way, if M.W.A. would like to provide proof for his assertions about making “climate change denial” a crime, I’m sure we’d all like to see it.
I’m not sure where Michael Z. Williamson is getting his quote of raising ocean temperatures “a few degrees” as it isn’t in my letter (or any other letter on your site) but his claim that “the Antarctic is growing” is incorrect. There was a temporary mitigation of the trend of ice loss due to some unusual precipitation but the first ever gravity survey (GRACE) of the entire ice sheet by NASA has detected significant Antarctic ice mass loss. “The mistake of one scientist” which he claims is insane to suggest was not connected to the “Medieval Warming Period” as Mr. Williamson misread, but rather the assertions of the growth of glaciers worldwide (I urge him and anyone else confused about this to re-read what I said). As I said about the so-called “Viking era”, there may have been regional anomalies but this does not result in a conclusion of world-wide warming at that time (indeed, the evidence suggests nothing of the kind). The “records from the timeframe involved” don’t actually “document” anything other than an attempt by the Vikings to expand settlements there. When I was a kid in school (in the distant past), we were taught a bit about Viking history, including their early use of propaganda. One of the most self-evident proofs of this is the very name of their colony: Greenland! Those who bought the stories they were told about it were sorely disappointed when they arrived. Instead of the fertile farmlands (capable of growing vineyards?) they had expected, they found a cold wasteland that was anything but green, ultimately incapable of sustaining the small (and initially, quite hardy) colony there. If there were warm periods in the area (and there is little to suggest that there were), they were freakish and short-lived. It would be foolish to assume that selectively chosen Viking literature on the subject of Greenland is a worthy substitute for accurate documents about conditions at that time.
As I implied in my previous letter, anyone who chooses to disregard the overwhelming conclusions by the scientific community is more than welcome to do so. I have no doubt that one could find some fantastic real estate buys along the Mississippi coast, for example, and if you feel that Global Warming is nothing but a hoax, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t take advantage of a buyer’s market. I wouldn’t even have dipped my toe into this controversy save for seeing disinformation presented as fact. Keep in mind that ExxonMobil has contributed a huge amount of money to support the distribution of non-peer reviewed papers critical of Global Warming science and the establishment of friendly “think tanks”. In my mind, it’s one thing to argue the concept based on it’s economic effects but it’s highly unethical to distort (or outright lie about) about the science involved. As survivalists, it would seem logical for us to pay very close attention to the potential catastrophic events that could domino when the climatic “tipping point” arrives, rather than be distracted by a corporation intent on buying “the best lies money can buy” to increase it’s short term profits. However, (as I keep saying), that’s your choice to make. To me, there’s not much difference in how I prepare to survive, Global Warming simply increases the impetus for me to do so. Best Regards, – Hawaiian K.



Letter From David in Israel Re: Blue Water Sailing as a Retreat Option?

James:
Anyone near any body of salt water should consider purchasing something like the Navy/Coast Guard [approved] Manual Reverse Osmosis Desalinator (MROD) They are sold on eBay and as far as I know are only made by PUR. They can provide drinkable water at sea for one to two people with quite a bit of work but PUR also makes a larger bicycle pump model. I have tested mine in both
the Med (not as salty as ocean) and the Salt Sea (the saltiest water in the world). More salt just means more work.
A creative person might make a desalinator from a home reverse osmosis filter system but I would highly suggest having at least one PUR hand unit as a backup. The U.S. Navy/Coast Guard issue MROD-06-LS includes a great add-on thigh strap and lever extensions not on the civilian models. – David in Israel



Odds ‘n Sods:

Another indicator of inflation ahead? SurvivalBlog reader Bill H. notes: “A trend that I have not seen mentioned on your web site, apart from gold and silver investment, is that [fine] “art” is going through the roof. Most of us cannot afford to invest in art, myself included. However, we can still see the writing on the wall when the moderately wealthy are flocking to acquire art at record prices. You don’t have to buy thousands of pounds of gold when you can pay $20 million for a painting that will only appreciate. That’s a fairly extreme example, but you get the idea. Just today there was an article on Yahoo about a London art auction bringing in record prices.JWR Adds: This lends further credence to my investing philosophy, which leans heavily toward tangibles. Of course, I prefer more practical tangibles like guns, ammo, productive farm land, and tools. You can’t drop a deer at 800 yards with a work of art by Paul Cézanne, but you can with a work of art by Paul Dressel–although I’m sure that it would be more practical to spend the same amount and get several pieces by Kelly McMillan.

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From the new Iraqi government: “Would you mind sending all of that $4 Billion in cash?” Its a good thing that al this money printing isn’t inflationary.

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Reader “RBS” mentioned a web site dedicated to ham radio and RACES [Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Service] news, and so forth: Emergency Radio.