Note from JWR:

Based on a query from blog reader Mike F., I’m starting a new SurvivalBlog reader poll: What are the best businesses for individuals that will have utility both before and after any major disaster or other disruption of society? Home-based, self-employment businesses are preferred, but perhaps there are other categories that I haven’t considered. Please make your recommendations via e-mail and I will post them later this week. Thanks!

Letter Re: One Common Caliber for Retreat Rifles and Handguns?

Jim,
In trying to standardize equipment for a retreat, what do you think of .40 S&W in handguns (already own) and the various [semi-auto] carbines that can be purchased that shoot that [same] round .(Like Ruger [Kel-Tec, and Marlin.] )? I know they (.40 S&W) are slower than the .223 or .308, but still effective. I know the smaller magazine capacities (like 10 rounds) might be an issue.
The major “plus” would be a complete compatibility of ammunition for all the guns so that you only have to worry about stocking and carrying one type (except for the .22 [rimfire]s which don’t count for [self defense] planning purposes.) Is this a good idea or bad one? (Assume that we also get one larger caliber gun (.30-30 / .308 / .30-06) for hunting deer, etc., in a bolt or lever action.)
I haven’t seen this [concept mentioned] in your web site, so please forgive me if it is posted somewhere. Thanks, – Mike in “Seattle”

JWR Replies: Thanks for mentioning this idea, because I often hear it suggested by my consulting clients. The only problem is that “one common caliber” sounds like a great idea, but it just doesn’t work in today’s world–at least not for primary defensive firearms. Let me explain my reasoning, starting with a little historical background:

Much of the recurring “cartridge commonality” thinking stems from America’s pioneer Old West experience. In the late 1800s it was popular to carry a Winchester lever action .44-40 rifle or carbine, and a Colt or S&W revolver chambered in the same cartridge. This is just what my great grandfather Robert Henry Rawles did. He came out west by covered wagon in 1857, at age 12. From the late 1870s until his death in 1911, he habitually carried a Colt Single Action Army (SAA), and when on horseback or while hunting he supplemented the revolver with a Winchester Model 1873 rifle. Both guns were chambered in .44-40. (Which at the time was often called “.44 Winchester Center Fire”, or more commonly just “Winchester .44”) One of his cousins did essentially the same thing, but instead carried a Smith & Wesson .44-40 Top Break revolver and a fairly uncommon but highly sought-after Colt pump action .44-40 rifle. Doing so indeed had a big advantage in cartridge commonality. But that was back in the days of blackpowder cartridges, that all had high-arcing trajectories. Today, if you were carrying a carbine chambered in a pistol caliber, and your opponents had a detachable magazine 7.62×39 or .308 battle rifle–with high velocity and flat trajectory–then you’d be badly outmatched.

Typical pistol chamberings (such as 9mm Parabellum and .40 S&W) are not sure and quick man stoppers at two to seven yards (typical combat pistol shooting distance), and they are absolutely pitiful stoppers at 200 or 300 yards. They just don’t have the requisite “oomph” at long range to penetrate and put Mr. Badguy out of the fight. Furthermore, at long range they have a “rainbow” trajectory, which is difficult to compensate for under the stress of combat. For your primary defensive rifle, you are much better off with a flat-shooting high velocity cartridge like .308 Winchester. There is some utility in owning a pistol caliber carbine, but in my opinion that is limited to small game hunting, pest shooting, and training youngsters. But do not make the mistake of thinking that they are fully adequate for self-defense.

The only two possible “one cartridge for carbine and pistol” compromises that I can envision might be either:

1.) Selecting a quite powerful handgun cartridge cartridge like .44 Magnum, .45 Colt, or perhaps a .45 Winchester Magnum. As political pundit (and gun enthusiast) Kim du Toit so aptly put it: “To put it in perspective, a 250 gr. bullet in .44 Remington Magnum arrives with 775 ft.- lbs. of energy; [but] the 260 gr. bullet in .45 Win Mag arrives with 1,300 ft.- lbs. Ouch.” In my opinion, both of these cartridges are slightly over-powered for a combat handgun, but still underpowered and not flat shooting enough for use in a carbine or long range self defense. Because .44 Magnum is a traditional rimmed cartridge, nearly all of the carbines that are available (such as those from Marlin, Puma, Winchester, ) are lever actions with tubular magazines. Ruger does make a semi-auto .44 Magnum carbine ( a complete re-design of their .44 carbine from the 1960s) and a lever action (the Model 96/.44), but unfortunately both use a fairly fragile four round rotary magazine. (Hardly suitable for self defense.) For handguns there are a lot of great .44 Magnum revolvers made (including the S&W Model 629) , and of course the .44 Desert Eagle pistol. But given its clunky ergonomics, I consider the Desert Eagle strictly a choice for advanced shooters. (It would take a lot of training to learn how to shoot fast and accurately.)

The .45 Winchester Magnum is a rimless cartridge, which makes it compatible with a wider range of magazine designs. Three years ago, I read that Collectors Firearms, was doing .45 Winchester Magnum conversions for M1 Carbines. But unfortunately their web site no longer mentions those, so I suspect that they are out of production. (Perhaps they still have a few pieces of old inventory.) But I’m sure that some enterprising individual will soon come up with one on an AR-15 platform. Nor would I be surprised if either Ruger and Marlin expand their semi-auto carbine offerings to do likewise.(Carbines in .45 Winchester Magnum would be a good market niche.) Pistol options for .45 Winchester Magnum include the Wildey and the LAR Grizzly, but given the heavy recoil of the cartridge, I presume that even more training would be required than for mastering the Desert Eagle.

As for .45 Colt, I don’t consider it a serious self defense cartridge for two reasons: First, nearly all of the factory loads are extra mild, for liability reasons–since ammo makers fear that they might be loaded in an early iron-framed Colt SAA. Second, the exposed rim width of. .45 Colt is considerably smaller than the .44 Magnum. In my experience it is not unusual for a fired piece of brass to slip past the revolver’s extractor “star” on the ejection stroke and get jammed underneath. This would be a Very Bad Thing(tm) to have happen in the middle of a gunfight.

or,

2.) Buying both a pistol and a registered (“Class 3”) submachinegun chambered for the same cartridge, preferably .45 ACP. By substituting a submachinegun (SMG) for the carbine, three shot burst capability and 30 round magazine capacity could make up for a pistol cartridge’s lack of power at moderate ranges. (Although the practical accuracy of a three shot burst from a SMG at more than 100 yards is dubious.) And of course you would have to weigh the risk/reward ratio of making yourself “high profile” by getting a registered Class 3 SMG. (Fingerprinting, $200 Federal transfer tax, background check, and the consent of your local sheriff or chief of police.) Other possibilities with the same magazine capacity (but a lower social profile) might be semi-auto SMG clones. These include the HK USC semi-auto carbine in .45 ACP (the semi-auto variant of HK’s UMP SMG), the Rock River Arms or Olympic Arms AR-15s chambered in .45 ACP, or the semi-auto versions of the venerable Thompson SMG. But with any of these guns, you are still limited to the relatively low power and rainbow long range trajectory of .45 ACP.

The two preceding approaches might work if you live in a heavily wooded eastern state (or perhaps a western rainforest such as Washington’s Olympic Peninsula), and all of your anticipated combat shooting will be at less than 120 yards. But I don’t think that if I were in that circumstance that I would be willing to put my life on the line, all for the sake of being able to say that I had achieved absolute one cartridge commonality nirvana. And as for anyone living in open country–like in the Plains states and most of the western states–limiting oneself to only a pistol cartridge–even the whomping .454 Casull–would be absurd.

One other consideration is that even if you were to get a pistol and a semi-auto carbine chambered in the same cartridge, odds are that their magazines would not be interchangeable. Hence, if you needed to “Rob Peter to pay Paul”, then you would have to unload one type of magazine and reload it into another magazine. This doesn’t sound like much fun to do in a hurry, when the air is thick with lead.

All of the preceding discussion of “maybe this” and “maybe that” marginal one-cartridge solutions bring us to the bottom line: In my estimation, the best that you can hope for in terms of maximizing cartridge commonality yet still be able to “reach out and touch someone” is to have all of your handguns chambered in one cartridge, and all of your rifles chambered in another. For example, here at the Rawles Ranch, nearly all of our handguns are.45 ACPs, and nearly all of our rifles–both bolt bolt actions and semi-autos–are .308s. (We do have a couple of .30-06 rifles, but only because we are in elk and moose country.)

Letter Re: Resource Scarcity in the Near Future

Jim,
Here is an excerpt from an article I read in “Fast Company” that provides some insight to the “Coming Collapse” The full version can be found here http://www.fastcompany.com/subscr/113/open_fast50-essay.html: “Water provides a typical example: By 2030, more than one in three human beings will not have enough to drink, or will run the risk of dying by drinking what they’ve got. Today, the prospect of such scarcity is causing countries to mine so-called fossil water from deep aquifers that were formed millions of years ago. Parts of India are pumping water at twice the recharge rate, causing water tables to fall between one and three meters per year. However, there is not much of an alternative: If India gave up groundwater mining, its grain production would likely fall by 25%, leaving it incapable of feeding itself. Nobody knows precisely how long this can continue, but the answer will be measured in decades, not centuries. Its little wonder that the World Bank says freshwater scarcity may well become one of the major factors limiting development in the years ahead.
Resource scarcity is going to be a front-page business issue as well, affecting industries from transportation to electronics. According to estimates by the International Institute for Environment and Development, at today’s levels of production, there may be only another 28 years’ worth of copper in the ground, another 21 years’ worth of lead, a 17-year supply of silver, and 37 years’ worth of tin. We will certainly get better at extracting, recycling, efficiently using, and finding replacements for these materials, but it is likely that basic industrial inputs will come under increasing pressure in the decades to come. A shortage of industrial-grade silicon, for instance, has recently spooked both the solar-cell industry and Silicon Valley. Moore’s Law never assumed we would run out of sand.
Worse, the most worrisome trends are interrelated and self-compounding. Consider population growth and energy use: Over the past half-century, the consumption of energy worldwide has grown more than 400%, far outstripping overall population growth. The reason is simple: As people move up the economic ladder, they use more “discretionary energy” on everything from heated floors to trips to Vegas. Improving energy efficiency does not begin to address this gap–lighting your home with compact fluorescent bulbs will not make much of a difference if you (or your neighbors) move into a higher-wattage McMansion every year.
Apply this insight at a global scale, and things quickly become alarming. As enormous, rapidly growing and developing countries such as China and India seek to swell their middle classes in the coming decades, their energy demands will increase geometrically, not linearly. China intends to add at least 250 million citizens to its middle class, and create a well-to-do society by 2020, with a per capita income for the whole country that is five times the present one. In the meantime, China continues to burn almost one-third of all the coal mined from planet Earth to meet its annual needs, making Chinese cities among the most polluted and China the world’s second-largest source of CO2 emissions. And that’s today: What happens when all those new Chinese middle-class consumers decide to drive to work? Are they any less entitled to the lifestyle model we’ve exported around the globe?”

Along with many other sources this confirms why ammunition has increased 10% across the board this year, and why silver is slowly, yet steadily rising. Here in Southern California there are increasing incidents of copper piping stolen from the rooftops of businesses. With fewer resources, available crime and desperation will increase. It is just a matter a time before our economy along with the rest of the world collapses in on it’s self.

I have to mention as well that I received your book “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation”. I have read it several times and have found it to be a great resource. I plan to sell my house here in Southern California and set up shop in one of your recommended retreat states. I have a brother who is a crew chief for the A-10 Warthog and a dynamite car mechanic. He plans to live near us when we find our retreat. I am seeking to “exit” my government job and start my own business. I have lost my faith in my Government backing up LEOs, such as the case with Border Patrol Agents Ramos and Copean. – Mike F.

Letter Re: U.S. Civil War Era Hardtack Recipes From North and South

Sir,
These recipes are in addition to the letters on hard tack that you posted on your site:
Union Army Hardtack Recipe
2 cups of flour
1/2 to 3/4 cup water
1 tablespoon of Crisco or vegetable fat
6 pinches of salt

Mix the ingredients together into a stiff batter, knead several times, and spread the dough out flat to a thickness of 1/2 inch on a non-greased cookie sheet. Bake for one- half an hour at 400 degrees. Remove from oven, cut dough into 3-inch squares, and punch four rows of holes, four holes per row into the dough. Turn dough over, return to the oven and bake another one- half hour. Turn oven off and leave the door closed. Leave the hardtack in the oven until cool. Remove and enjoy!

Confederate Johnnie Cake Recipe
two cups of cornmeal
2/3 cup of milk
2 tablespoons vegetable oil
2 teaspoon baking soda
1/2 teaspoon of salt

Mix ingredients into a stiff batter and form eight biscuit-sized "dodgers". Bake on a lightly greased sheet at 350 degrees for twenty to twenty five minutes or until brown. Or spoon the batter into hot cooking oil in a frying pan over a low flame. Remove the corn dodgers and let cool on a paper towel, spread with a little butter or molasses, and you have a real southern treat! Two main staples of that cataclysm–and maybe the next as well. Regards, – J.K.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Mike the Blacksmith flagged this piece: Study sees harmful hunt for extra oil

   o o o

Keith mentioned: A draft UN treaty to tackle any future giant asteroids heading for Earth is to be drawn up this year. Keith’s comment: “An interesting story, may be more likely to happen than Peak Oil or Sudden Climate Change, at least this is not as complex.” Meanwhile, NASA’s JPL dropped the impact risk of CA 19 (a one kilometer diameter asteroid due to approach Earth in 2012) from Torino Scale 1 to Torino scale 0.

  o o o

Rob at $49 MURS Radios is trying a novel barter “bidding” experiment: He writes: “I have been reading all the references to bartering on your blog and would like to try an experiment. I’m going to put a couple of pairs of the $49 MURS Radios aside and offer them up to the bartering process. Readers can make an offer to trade something they have in exchange for something I have. Offers will be accepted on the basis of value and desirability. At the end, I will report back on how well it worked out. I set up a special we page with more details. Thanks! – Rob”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Freedom is not synonymous with an easy life… There are many difficult things about freedom: It does not give you safety, it creates moral dilemmas for you; it requires self-discipline; it imposes great responsibilities; but such is the nature of Man and in such consists his glory and salvation." – Margaret Thatcher

Two Letters Re Converting A Gasoline Engine Generator Set to Propane

Hi Jim,
Regarding the thread on converting generators to propane, last year I installed a tri-fuel conversion kit on my 7.5 KW generator, that has a Honda engine. [Since the conversion] it works perfectly and [the conversion kit] was very easy to install. If the [grid] power goes out, I can switch it to the piped-in natural gas and if that goes out, I can either use propane or gasoline.
I also got an inexpensive solar trickle charger and connected that to the battery, so that the battery is always fully charged. Best Regards, – Kurt

JWR Replies: I consider the small (5 watt) 12 VDC battery trickle chargers that you mentioned a must for every retreat. We have one for each of our vehicles here at the ranch. Keeping one of these connected to your backup generator battery is a great idea. They are available from Northern Tool & Equipment. (One of our Affiliate Advertisers.) At Northern Tool’s web site, search on Item # 339973.

Jim
Propane is a good long term fuel for home and engine use as long as “the system” continues to work. How long will you be able to maintain your power needs after the balloon goes up?
Things to think about, [are]:
What are the common failure parts in you genset and automobile?
What are your consumables, gas, oil, diesel, hoses, gaskets?
How long can you practically extend oil changes and not damage your engines?
Can you add a oil purifier to your engine?
Wood gasifiers are a proven and reliable source of fuel to run engines for the long term. As long as there are trees and shrubs then you have fuel.
The GENGAS web page has charts and plans for a stratified down draft gasifier that can run all manner of internal combustion engines including diesels cars and generators.

If you want to see the kind of engines that stand the test of time go down to your local farm and see how many of the old tractors are still running [that were made] from the 1940s to the 1960s.
I would be careful about spending money on conversions that will only be useful while the [modern commercial] supply system is running.

One other note: How safe is your fuel storage from fire and to incoming [small arms] fire? Large propane tanks can and have leveled city blocks when set on fire. In some locales underground tanks are illegal so a block house away from your main structure would be in order, and security for same must be reviewed.
Now think of your last power outage. How quiet was your neighborhood? How far does the sound of your genset carry?

Remember that needs and wants are a long way apart. Skills are cheap and you can accumulate lots of those and no one can take them from you. Goods cost money and they can be taken or lost. The short of it is: do not buy what you can learn to build or do without. In my humble opinion the best way to survive is to organize like a Special Forces team with overlapping skill sets. And never rule out mobility as strategically v have any choice. Learn all you can about it. Good reference books to have are the U.S. Army’s FM 7-8 on infantry tactics and battle drills and the Ranger handbook. A third “must have” is ST 31-91B US Army Special Forces medical handbook. As the motto [borrowed from the British SAS] goes: “Who dares, wins”.
Sorry for the rambling but I read your blog every day at 0400 and don’t get to write that often. so I start my day with a good cup of coffee and good friends. God Bless and Semper Paratus, – Mike H.

Letter Re: Kanban: America’s Ubiquitous “Just in Time” Inventory System–A Fragile House of Cards

Jim,
Having both worked in a hospital and worked for hospitals for the last 18 years I must loudly concur with “Mike the MD in Missouri”. As a service specialist in an un-named Level 1 trauma center I had access to almost every inch of the facility(s) including the warehouses where we stored our unused equipment and all the patient care products. Naturally I was able to assess the on hand stock versus the use and replenish rates at a glance. I was always amazed at how little there actually was for a hospital in a city of
150,000 people.
Let me assure everyone that Mike the MD is absolutely correct. This, is due largely to the hospitals spiraling cost of doing business. The paltry or sheer lack of adequate funding to healthcare facilities has caused management to resort to Just in Time (JIT) inventories. Lean stock management is a necessity for all but the largest big city hospitals and even those are lean.
The small rural hospitals are, by far, the leanest and also will be the hardest hit if there is a disruption in transportation. Anyone remember the phrase “the sacrifice of the few for the benefit of the many”? This mentality applies to rural hospitals. The big inner city hospitals will get resupplied (albeit perhaps scantly) first.
It is incumbent upon each and everyone of us to have the appropriate, on hand, quantities of prescription medicines, symptomatic medications (helpful for those manning a LP/OP), med supplies in the form of gauze pads, bandages, tapes and wound closures including the “medical grade super glue” style, cleaners, skin preps, splints, wraps, towels, antiseptics, soaps and shampoos (un/minimally scented), tooth past and brushes, gloves, sutures (if possible), ointments, tools (medical and dental) of all sorts. Don’t forget crutches, walkers, (if possible) a wheelchair, feminine hygiene
products, et cetera. Diabetic folks need to stock up heavily on syringes and needles. [JWR Adds: And they should absolutely stock as much insulin and test materials as possible without using them beyond their expiration dates. Be sure to label and conscientiously rotate these supplies on a first in, first out (FIFO) basis.]
Thanks to Mike the MD for broaching this topic and thanks also Jim for the platform to which the topic can be addressed. – Joe from Tennessee

Notes from JWR:

Notes from JWR: My only comment on the recent tragedy in Salt Lake City (where Sulejman Talovic, an 18-year-old Bosnian Muslim refugee ran amok with a shotgun and a .38 wheelgun) is that if we had a better armed citizenry, this madman would have been stopped much more quickly. (Probably long before he could have shot ten people.) I have no doubt that the gun grabbers will try to capitalize on this sad event. But they don’t have an intellectual leg to stand on. Madmen will always be able to get hold of weapons, regardless of how many gun laws that the Barbara Boxers and Hitlery Clintons of the world put on the books. If Vermont-style concealed carry (with no permit required) were adopted nationwide, we would live in a much safer country. An armed society is a polite society.

I spent most of yesterday afternoon out with our primary chainsaw (a Stihl 029 with a 24″ bar) cutting some firewood for next winter. It was a good opportunity to brief our kids about chainsaw safety–especially the necessity of wearing Kevlar chainsaw chaps. The widespread use of these chaps in recent years has greatly reduced those messy trips to the Emergency Room.

Speaking of cutting things off, I’m about to cut off the current debate on climate change at SurvivalBlog, since there are obviously some almost diametrically opposed views, and the debate is starting to run in circles. Thanks for your input, folks. The bottom line, in my estimation: Just be ready, regardless of what happens vis-a-vis short term weather patterns, or potential long term climate change.

Two Letters Re: Pondering Some Personal Consequences of Global Climate Change

Dear Jim and Family,
Wow, people sure are getting worked up and personal about climate change aren’t they? I agree that as survivalists we should do our best to plan for reasonable emergencies. Cold weather gear in Central America? Probably not. A larger cistern system than you think you need in the desert or great plains? A good idea. Why? Climate change, whether caused by man or not, makes for changing rainfall patterns. Maybe heavier so your soil gets waterlogged and you get unexpected floods. In Hawaii this may mean more hurricanes. Or maybe Hawaii turns into a desert island with little rainfall and ends up collapsing like Easter Island did. If the rain gets more brief and falls less often, aqueducts, which keep your well full, could fail and you’re suddenly out of water. Drought has a very long history in North America in particular, topping several advanced and complex civilizations: the Mayans, Hohokam, Mississippi Mound Builders, and the Anasazi. In north america, climate can be accurately mapped by tree ring growth and several other methods, and the region has a tendency of a couple centuries of reliable weather, then a couple decades of severe drought. We’ve had 150 years of reliable weather, and I guess now we’re going to have drought. The Mayan calendar maps that to 265 year cycle of growth and destruction, which is purported to end around 2012, which should be around 4 years into the Peak Oil collapse.

A couple degree water temp difference means a huge difference in Cod catch in the North Sea near Norway and Iceland. There are centuries of records on those, if anyone is interested. A couple degrees can mean glaciers grow or retreat, which they’ve been doing for millennia before man began burning coal or oil. I think that the IPCC report is inconclusive, but I’m a geologist and nobody asks us about climate since our viewpoint is a lot longer than theirs and our conclusions don’t make good headlines: “It’s Interglacial. Climate changes because its erratic until the next ice age begins.” But that’s not as sexy as claiming the <s>sky is falling</s> world is melting and everything will die. I’m pretty tired to explaining this to ignorant masses who want to believe we’re all going to melt into the sea.

When all is said and done, climate change is something the governments of the world have decided to accept as truth, regardless of whether it is or not. They are prepared to mandate “solutions” to “stop warming”, when their own vaunted report says that if we start now with the most extreme measures (no CO2 emissions at all), it will take 50 years to see any change.

As survivalists, we should be thinking about the political consequences of that decision, such as banning the burning of firewood to cut CO2 emissions, outlawing internal combustion engines, perhaps even seizing rural properties without active agriculture because the cost of transit from this rural location makes it environmentally damaging under the Kyoto protocols. Think about that. Are there alternatives to allow your lifestyle to survive? Yes, but they’ll be expensive and bid up by demand. Electric cars actually cost around $40K, and are subsidized by the government down to $22K. A mass release of electric cars to the general public won’t scale up for subsidies, so expect to pay that $40K for the first models. Instead of seeing the price drop, it will probably rise with time as demand for the most efficient models and latest innovations (and inflation) will bring it higher. As metals will cost more to make thanks to the lack of fuels and restrictions on CO2 emissions, special taxes are added on for a personal transport vehicle, and road taxes and GPS tracking of mileage that gets very expensive. I can easily see cars costing $70K (before inflation) by 2012. How many households can afford that? I sure can’t.

The IPCC report invites all sorts of oppression and we should fight misuse and abuse of the data aggressively. They’ll take your guns today (UN says self-defense is illegal) so they can take your cars tomorrow (personal vehicles release too much CO2, use precious fossil fuels/electricity), then your furnace/fireplace (CO2), then your pantry. (Ration Cards). You can see where that’s going. Pretty soon you’re living in Orwell’s 1984. Letting government, and their politically motivated scientists, tell me I can’t burn wood, coal, or oil to heat my home because it releases CO2, thus denying my right to survive the winter in a rural retreat, is the same as a putting a gun to my head and telling me to obey and die. I have real problems with that. Things like this convince me that the UN is the enemy of the Free Man.

Even if the science behind the IPCC report is correct, the threat of forcing First World countries to suffer like the 3rd World is too high a cost, particularly when it means death for so many of us. Regardless of effort applied, change will have to be endured over the next 50 years, so basically the rest of our lives. It is in our own best interests not to abide by the Kyoto protocols and to adopt affordable alternative energy. Any changes we make must make economic sense and the radicals frothing at the mouth over the IPCC report want aggressive changes made now, the kind that kill a lot of people. These are not people we should be taking advice from.

So, think about rainfall totals, falling well levels, potential oppressive laws, and how to deal with them all at your location while you try and make a living under the radar with a modicum of both privacy and comfort. Best, – InyoKern

Dear Jim,
I see that folk myths are becoming part of the Ad-hoc Working Group (AWG) “science.” Regarding: “Greenland! Those who bought the stories they were told about it were sorely disappointed when they arrived.”
Repeating: there are currently Viking Era farms melting out of the glaciers in Greenland, proving it was warmer then than currently. Greenland was not a garden, but by the standards of the Norse it was quite viable. The furthest north discoveries of artifacts are near 80 degrees north, well above the ice line for centuries in between then and now. Greenland was occupied for 450 years, by people who had boats as a standard. Think of where the English word “Skipper” comes from, also “Starboard” and many other nautical terms. If it had not been viable, they would have left. The Inuit arrived around the year 1200, fully two centuries after the Europeans, and survived the climate change the other way–colder. This is established fact.
“(freakish warmth in Greenland at some point is not a basis for concluding that a world-wide trend was evident, as it wasn’t) .
It’s sad to see this myth persists.”
As to there not being supporting evidence, here’s a secondary source linking to lots of others: See: http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm This one smashes the notion that there was no Medieval Warm Period, with evidence from the Antarctic, Africa, North America, South America, Australia, the Pacific…all supporting a period warmer than today, followed by the Little Ice Age, and no measurable change in sea level.
The best quote from here is: As a prominent Finnish scientist remarked about a historical military event in his country’s distant history, “if `anecdotal’ ice is thick enough to carry a whole army, we can infer the ice was both thick and durable as an objective conclusion based on a documented historical fact.”
To suggest that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) didn’t exist is revisionism on par with Orwell’s 1984. Any “scientist” claiming so is a charlatan, plain and simple. Too many disciplines, from geology to geography to botany to history to cartography all concur for them to be wrong on such a scale.
~~~
The other point I shall address is:
“In another widely held misconception, the rise in sea levels is not pegged to the weight of ice in the sea, but rather the melting of land ice and thermal expansion of the ocean.”
This is an easy one (I had a physicist assist me, but my college math and HVAC thermodynamics is well able to grasp it):
http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/earth/Water/temp.html
The average temperature of the ocean surface waters is about 17 degrees Celsius
90 % of the total volume of ocean is found below the thermocline in the deep ocean. The deep ocean is not well mixed. The deep ocean is made up of horizontal layers of equal density. Much of this deep ocean water is between 0-3 degrees Celsius (32-37.5 degrees Fahrenheit)!
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean
its volume is over 1340 million cubic kilometers
Average Depth: 12200 feet (3720 m).
www.mos.org/oceans/planet/features.html
A Calorie or kilocalorie is the amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one kilogram of water one Celsius degree.
Although the metric unit of energy is the joule, heat is commonly also measured in units called calories (there are about 4.19 joules in a calorie)
Oceans volume: 1.34×1021 l
Oceans mass: 1.4×1021 kg
90% of the water is below the thermocline and can be ignored –
surface heating won’t affect it.
Average surface water temperature: 17 C
Energy required to raise average surface water temperature to 22C
5×1.4×1020 KJ = 7×1021 KJ
Solar power input to the Earth is about 1050 W/m2 after counting the
amount reflected. Earth’s cross-sectional area is 1.27×1014 m2, so
total solar power input is 1.33 x 1020 W
So 50 million seconds of solar output would do it.
Giving density at 17C as 1.024193346 kg/l
and at 22C as 1.020066461 kg/l
So our 10% surface water of 1.4×1021 kg has a volume of
1.36692940397×1020 l at 17C and 1.3724595931×1020 at 22C
which is a difference of about 5.5×1017 litres = 5.5×1014 m3
The surface area of the oceans is 3.61×1014 m
which give an approximate level rise of 1.5m or five feet, about 0.41%.
So, if the sun doubles in output for TWO YEARS, enough energy will enter the system to raise the ocean level about 5 feet.
If we decreased the energy radiated from the Earth by 1% (a SIGNIFICANT change for a system in equilibrium radiating on average as much as it absorbs), and if all that extra energy went into the oceans, that would raise the water temperature by 3C over 100 years, for less than a 2 foot rise.
This disregards that the upper ocean is not a parallel-sided tank, but slopes, that 30% of that energy would fall on dry land, and that toward the poles much of it would be soaked up or deflected by atmosphere. Also, in the last 3 billion years, the solar influx has INCREASED 40% without catastrophe. http://seds.lpl.arizona.edu/nineplanets/nineplanets/sol.html#solarconstant
This disregards additional cloud cover raising the albedo and reflecting some of the incoming energy.
Atmospheric warming is irrelevant to sea level expansion (it can affect surface ice), because the transfer rate from gaseous air to liquid water is very low.
And yet, this is an idea that so-called scientists are endorsing? I certainly hope not.
And there is certainly no consensus that warming is taking place to the degree some argue:
http://muller.lbl.gov/TRessays/23-MedievalGlobalWarming.html
Supports global warming. Says he doesn’t trust Mann’s paper.
http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba/ba478/
http://www.nps.gov/archive/mora/ncrd/glaciers.htm some advance, some retreat
http://www.nasa.gov/lb/vision/earth/environment/sea_ice.html Antarctic ice may be increasing
There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 million years ago), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm — about 18 times higher than today.
http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today– 4400 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.”
~~~
One can say that the scientists working for the energy companies are “biased,” but bias works both ways. One could also say that those getting paid higher wages by the private sector are competent. Those who can, do, and all that.
Certainly we are facing climate change. Certainly it will affect life, cause local disasters and shift society. But the planet, life and even the human race have withstood much worse with much less knowledge. – Michael Z. Williamson

Letter Re: Supporting SurvivalBlog

On the Yahoo discussion group survivalretreat, the other two moderators and I recently posted a very boiled down and simple philosophy: “The more who prepare, and the better they each prepare, the better off we all are. We welcome people to join us as survivalists.” I hope this is your attitude as a survivalist, and if you think about it, wouldn’t this be an incredibly wise policy for any government to take. It would make its citizenship stronger, less needy, and more resilient to against any catastrophe or hard times. The best part is, it’s free. This is merely information, advice, and encouragement for people to ready themselves with some realistic advice as to how to do so. Survivalblog.com, to a significant extent does this for all of us through the continued posting of and debate of ideas, for free. Advertisers here make this financially possible, and offer the products and services that allow you to expand and improve upon your preparations. I hope you consider patronizing them first for this reason. I have.

Special thanks to James Rawles for the continuing level of quality and fresh material on the site. Is there financial self-interest for the advertisers? Of course there is. But don’t kid yourself about them becoming rich off this. Survivalism is unfortunately a very small market, and thus we should all take special appreciation as to how this blog site brings so many of us together internationally. I see that it is now been a year since I took the Ten Cent Challenge , and is time for me to renew. I encourage you to as well, as you are able.- Rourke

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Alfie Omega recommended some very sobering observations from Peak Oil guru James Howard Kunstler. Yes, he’s coming from a left-of center political perspective, and the timing of Hubbert’s Peak may be decades (or more) premature, but this is still worth pondering.

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Those RFID chips just keep getting smaller and more numerous. Now Hitachi has announced a nascent RFID dust.

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JB in Tennessee spotted a disposable toothbrush with self-dispensing toothpaste in the handle called Fresh ‘n Go. JB notes: “It is advertised as good for about two weeks use, but I find that I can stretch one to 5-6 weeks. I have packed a handful in my family BOB, as well as in individual camping and survival kits. They were available initially in a few drugstore chains, but now the only reliable source seems to be direct from the manufacturer at $10 for [a package of] six units.”