A New Breed of Feral Dogs, by Buckshot

The biggest myth is that dogs are your friend. People have been around tame dogs their entire lives. A dog is the friendly one, protects you, fights off wild animals for you. He is your best friend. Once a true collapse happens people well have that mindset. The mindset is: dogs are our friends therefore friends are not going to hurt me. Woman with their kind hearts are very vulnerable to attacks. Because in their world if you love enough the dog won’t hurt you. Nothing wrong with women thinking this way today, just a mindset based on a life experience with dogs all being good. What I truly fear is when a collapse happens and million upon millions upon millions of dogs will be turned loose. It will be done out of short-sighted kindness: “We’ll let Rover go, so he won’t starve. He can hunt rabbits.” They will revert back 10,000 years to a true wild animal. Disney will be a distant memory and life and death struggles will happen everyday. Packs will form, based on survival instinct. Just like man if you are going to survive you have to adapt. So will the packs. The dogs will learn what attacks that work and what causes death or injuries to them. This will result in a new breed of some very feral dogs.

Say you leave and your wife, or daughter who is going to work in the garden. To be safe you give her a .38 Special loaded with hollow points. A pit bull comes in to attack. She fires thinking it will be just like TV and the dog will fly off four feet and die. But instead the dog charges in for the kill. Now your wife, daughter, son or you will have a very good understanding of “fight or flight.” Your life experience base on TV is saying Dogs are your friend. TV has taught you that when you do shoot the dogs is supposed to drop dead. Right then a whole new reality is going to happen in seconds. What do you do? Are you thinking: this could never happen. One shot and the dog is done. Read one of the e-mails I received on this very subject:

In reference to your writings on dogs. I’m was born and raised in San Antonio, Texas. And I am lucky to have had a grandfather who taught me all the advantages to learning about weapons for hunting and survival. When I was about 17 yrs. old I got a call from my mom about my older brother who seemed to always have disagreements with local law enforcement. Well, it seemed he was going away for a short vacation, if you know what I mean, and it seemed my mom was stuck with dealing with my brother’s large stock of pit-bulls and a couple of pit-bull-Doberman crossbreeds. Majority of the dogs I had no problem getting rounded up and taken to the humane society. Now a couple, mainly a crossbreed named Dragon, was going to be a different story. No one could get close to him because he was so vicious, even my brother had trouble with him. Well, I knew the humane society wouldn’t take a mean dog so I opted to put him down rather than have him hurt someone or God forbid a child. So I took a Charter Arms .38 caliber snub nose with hollow-points and proceeded to put him down. As I approached him he was snarling and trying to break the chain that was tethering him to a broken down ’71 Chevy pickup truck axle still attached to the truck. I shot him from about 5 yards away and hit him behind the left ear. To my shock and amazement he yelped once and proceeded to jerk the truck sideways sliding it about 4 or 5 inches in my direction forcing me to jump back about two feet, almost losing my footing. I hastily shot him two more times, once in the chest and another in the neck before he finally fell. The ordeal had me shaken up a bit to say the least. I knew that if he would have had less tied to him he would have easily jerked free and I’m not sure if I would have been quick enough with the follow up shots. I learned very fast the choice of a .38 caliber was not enough for a dog, and he wasn’t a very large dog either, I would say probably 65 lbs. tops. And I know of countless other dogs just in that neighborhood alone many from the same bloodline, and I would hate to even think of them getting loose and into a pack mentality. Thanks for bringing this very likely scenario to me as it never even crossed my mind once. I was only thinking of the 2-legged threat while not thinking of the obvious 4-legged one.

Now you are thinking: “My wife carries a 9mm Glock“. My answer, “So what?” There have been plenty of cases where police have shot attacking dogs with 9mm Parabellums and been chased on top of their patrol car, after the dog was hit numerous times from the 9 mm. I don’t want this to get in a huge debate over what gun to carry. If you are going to carry a sidearm its caliber had better start with “4”. But it is more than that. Okay, the gun is a .45 are you sure you can hit a charging, growling, snapping dog running at you at 30 m.p.h. with four of his friends behind him. How about your wife, how about your daughter, your son, your best friend? In a true life and death struggle most people go through a slow motion time frame, tunnel vision, and based on your life experiences you can make critical or even fatal mistakes. Our mind is a wonderful computer. It will fill in voids, your mind is going to open the dog folder, dogs are your best friend this causes hesitating, your next folder will open up this is a attack like a pack of wolves killing an elk. Right then you realize you have changed from being predator to prey, then your adrenaline dump will happen. perhaps 80% of untrained people will make a critical error next. They will freeze. Just like a computer that is getting conflicted reports it freezes up. Their mind will be screaming “This isn’t happening!” and like a deer in the headlights staring at the oncoming semi truck, the dogs will knock them off their feet.

The new breed of wild dogs will have a system to kill humans, base on past success. They have no natural fear of man, they normal get fed by man, it will be natural to turn to man for food, even if the food is man himself. They will work out a hunting system because they are pack animals. Like wolves circling a deer, like a single lion chasing the herd of impala into the main pack, like an alligator waiting for the Zebra to dip his head for a drink. You see, the predator’s job is to survive. In order for them to survive they must work out a hunting system. The new breed wild dogs will work out a hunting system, with humans as their prey. As I have stated previously in my writings, the normal American household has less then 50 rounds of centerfire ammo. [JWR adds: And roughly only half of households have a gun.] There will be millions of people walking around unarmed. The dogs will have a system worked out before they find you. In other words, you are dealing with seasoned troops. The troops attacking you are successful human hunters–otherwise they wouldn’t be attacking you.

The attacking force is successful, vicious, and is miles ahead of you in the thought process. They know what their goal is, to feed on you. They have successful stalked to within strike range. You have entered the kill zone. This is analogous to the hunting method of a dog I once owned: The dog was smart and hated squirrels crossing our lawn. The dog would sleep under a pine tree. This dog from past hunting experiences knew when the squirrel was in the kill zone. The kill zone was the point of no return for the squirrel. He would be too far from the safety of the tree he just left and too far from the safety of the tree he was heading to. The dog would charge out and before the squirrel reach the tree he was caught and killed. The squirrel made the critical mistake of entering the kill zone.

This is my point. Having watched dogs my whole life, hunt with me or by themselves I have an understanding based on reality. Even with me giving you these written warnings, people are still going to hit the critical kill zone from dog packs. The new breed wild dogs will allow you to enter their kill zone or stalk you until they feel you are in their kill zone. When you become aware of the attack you will have precious few seconds to react. Having read hundreds of true attack stories, people have reported essentially the same thing: “I could not believe it was happening to me. I froze not knowing what to do.” This is why I am writing this, hopefully to to open your eyes. Dogs are attacking. Hopefully your computer brain will hit the “wild dog attacks” file and you will react. But even if you clear leather of your holster in time, bring the handgun up and fire. The distance is already critical. Missed shots could be fatal. The first missed shot or not damaging enough to put the dog down is going to cause you to have a second adrenaline dump. Your heart rate is going to change from a normal 75 beats a minute to 150 beats a minute. You are now going into a panic as you try to fire faster, praying that one will hit the target. Police officers in shoot-outs have often shot the ground on their first shot trying to return fire too fast in a high stress situation. People have gotten buck fever and worked lever action .30-30s without firing–ejecting fully loaded rounds to the ground. (I’ve seen this happen. When asked later what he was doing, he replied: “I was shooting at the deer.” In his mind, he was shooting. But all around him are littered unfired cartridges. Yes, it happens!) Firearms training is crucial. You must be confident and competent with all of your defensive guns.

My point is that you don’t know how you are going to react. You have entered the kill zone of seasoned troops whose whole survival is base on successful hunts. Now wouldn’t it better if you had a working system to catch the new breed of wild dogs before you enter the kill zone? To start, the best thing you can do is put away 10 dozen medium snares at your retreat. You can easily surround all the main trails coming into to your area. It might not stop them all but if you have a pack of 30 coming in and only three make it through, then you just increased your survivability by tenfold.

There is no better survival tool for the new breed wild dogs then real professional grade self locking snares. Get the DVD. Learn how to use these wonderful tools for gathering food and for protecting your retreat, your livestock, your family, and yourself. See: http://www.buckshotscamp.com/Video-6-Sales.htm and http://www.buckshotscamp.com/Snares-Buckshots-Medium-Sales.htm.

Hopefully you will never have to see this threat first hand. But I know the city people mindset when it comes to their dogs. There are 100 million dogs in America. What if only 10% turn in to feral packs. That is still 10 million predators. Work out a hunting system. It will take years for them to get cleared out. There could be packs that breed that have even smarter and more vicious offspring. The pack teaches the hunting system the offspring learns what works and what doesn’t. Each time they will get smarter. Can you imagine how bad it could be 10 years after a collapse if these packs are not brought under control? That is enough to keep you up at nights. – Buckshot



Letter Re: Cell Phone E-911 Tracking

Jim,
I think this would come under the heading of privacy….or our losing more and more of it on a daily bases. I got a call from my cell phone company today (US Cellular) they told me that I was going to be required to bring in my old phone…the same one I have had for five years… and trade it for one that was capable of being tracked by 911 (these are the [E-911] ones with GPS chips in them.) I told them that I did not want to. They told me I had no choice. They said that continuing to use the phone would result in FCC fines. (Has anyone else heard about this?) It seems that the only choice they are letting me have is picking out my new phone. So I’m going to have to do this, and according to them everyone who has an old phone is also going to be required to trade. So, I guess I will also be building a Faraday cage to keep my phone in when not in use. Actually, I’m just going to keep it in an ammo can. Hey, it’s my business where I go and what I do, not the government’s. – The Army Aviator







TEOTWAWKI and the Life Events Stress Scale

I have recently been pondering the far-reaching implications of a grid-down economic collapse situation–commonly called The End of the World as We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) in survivalist circles. One of the under-emphasized implications of TEOTWAWKI will be the psychological stress of the situation–both upon you and upon your neighbors. For many years, psychologists have used the Holmes-Rahe Social Adjustment Scale (also commonly called the “Life Events Stress Scale”) to gauge the level of stress that their patients are experiencing. I can foresee that a TEOTWAWKI situation will be off the scale for any of your neighbors that are not prepared. In short, a lot of them are going to come unglued. If you live in a city or suburb, expect to see a lot of your neighbors become so profoundly stressed that they will develop manias, phobias,and compulsions. You can also expect a good portion if them to commit irrational and criminal acts. With both the land line and cellular phone systems down, even if the police are still on duty, they will not know where to respond. I anticipate that the stress level will be lower in rural areas, but still profound. Just the loss of access to the mass media will cause stress in a lots of individuals. Think back to the emotional trauma that the survivors of  Hurricane Katrina went through. Now imagine a nationwide crisis, with no relief in sight. It will be “YOYO” (You’re on Your Own) time, and it won’t be pretty.

The Life Events Stress Scale is a useful tool for characterizing the stress that an individual is experiencing. You’ve probably seen this scale presented in a high school or college course. Looking at this scale, can you imagine the cumulative level of stress that you will feel when the power grid goes down and the 18-wheelers stop rolling? Now picture yourself as one of your “Joe Sixpack” neighbors. Typically, he has: no food storage plan, no alternative home heating plan, no alternative power system, no stored fuel for his vehicles, no method for treating pond water (when water stops miraculously pouring from the faucet.)  Talk about stress!

Life Events – Scale of Impact Score
Death of spouse 100
Divorce 73
Marital separation from mate 65
Detention in jail, other institution 63
Death of a close family member 63
Major personal injury or illness 53
Marriage 50
Fired from work 47
Marital reconciliation 45
Retirement 45
Major change in the health or behavior of a family member 44
Pregnancy 40
Sexual difficulties 39
Gaining a new family member  (e.g., through birth, adoption, oldster moving, etc.) 39
Major business re-adjustment  (e.g., merger, reorganization, bankruptcy) 39
Major change in financial status 38
Death of close friend 37
Change to different line of work 36
Major change in the number of arguments with spouse 35
Taking out a mortgage or loan  for a major purchase 31
Foreclosure on a mortgage or loan 30
Major change in responsibilities at work 29
Son or daughter leaving home  (e.g., marriage, attending college) 29
Trouble with In-laws 29
Outstanding personal achievement 28
Spouse beginning or ceasing to  work outside the home 26
Beginning or ceasing formal schooling 26
Major change in living conditions 25
Revision of personal habits  (dress, manners, associations, etc.) 24
Trouble with boss 23
Major change in working hours or conditions 20
Change in residence 20
Change to a new school 20
Major change in usual type and/or amount of recreation 19
Major change in church activities  (a lot more or less than usual) 19
Major change in social activities  (clubs, dancing, movies, visiting) 18
Taking out a mortgage or loan for a lesser purchase (e.g., for a car, TV, freezer, etc.) 17
Major change in sleeping habits 16
Major change in the number of family get-togethers 15
Major change in eating habits 15
Vacation 13
Christmas season 12
Minor violations of the law (e.g. traffic tickets, etc. ) 11
This scale was first developed in the mid-1960s. In my estimation it is not useful as a tool for gauging cumulative stress levels, so don’t attempt to “add up” your stress level. Just consider it a tool in generalities. Also, parts of this scale are most likely out-dated.  For example, consider the category: “Taking out a mortgage or loan for a lesser purchase“. Our society has become so debt-addicted that additional debt is no longer considered stressful.  (Perhaps it will be when mass unemployment makes paying those debts impossible.) The scale also does not reflect the modern-day reliance on communications systems such as cell phones, e-mail, and instant messaging/text messaging. These days, “server crash “hard disk drive failure”, and “unexpected deletion of e-mail archives” should be added to the list.  More importantly, the scale does it address the potential psychological impact of the loss of infrastructure that would be concomitant with TEOTWAWKI. For some, life without electricity and indoor plumbing might rate as high as the death of spouse.

Looking at this scale and comparing it with the potential psychological effects of a grid-down economic collapse situation, you can see why I often emphasize:

1.) The importance of living at your intended retreat before times get bad.  Moving by itself is quite stressful.  Can you imagine the stress of moving under duress? How about the stress of having to leave the majority of your possessions behind?  Make the move now and you will obviate that stress.

2.) Communications– consider the stress of being out of contact with loved ones in the event of TEOTWAWKI. Invest in a HF ham radio transceiver. Someday you may be glad that you did.

3.) Food storage. If you have lots of food stored, you won’t have to worry about whether or not you can eat, or the stress of seeing your children go hungry.

4.) Storing extra for charity. Obviously you cannot store enough food to feed all of your neighbors. This is why moving to a rural agricultural area makes sense. Odds are that you will be living in an area where the majority of your neighbors already have a vegetable garden and do home canning. Many will already have livestock. So it will just be a minority that will have no stored food at all. If you have extra wheat, rice, beans, and gardening seed to distribute, then you will be doing your Christian duty, and you will probably be building valuable friendships in the process.

5.) Addictions. What will life for your family be like without cigarettes, alcohol, junk food, and television? The more addictions that you can eliminate now, will equate to less stress after the onset of TEOTWAWKI. The side benefits will be that your family will be healthier and able to withstand the other stresses without succumbing to disease.

6.)  Alternative power and heat. Having no power will be a huge stress.  You can judge how stressful it will be to your family by their present-day reactions to local short-term power failures. How will you cook without power for the stove, oven, or microwave? How will you keep warm? Lights?  What about recreation?  Our kids are book worms but vast majority of children and teenagers that we know de-stress by watching DVDs, playing electronic games, and listening to their music.  Can you supply alternative power for electronic de-stressing devices?

7.)  Long term “house guests.” Odds are that you will have relatives arrive on your doorstep on TEOTWAWKI+1.  (You are the member of the family that they tease for being “over-prepared.”  But guess where they will go when the Schumer hits the fan? Your house. Think in terms of storing extra gardening tools, gloves, bedding, linens–and even more blankets or tarps to improvise privacy screens, et cetera.  Think this through, folks.

8.)  Life without television. We only owned a  TV for two years of our 18 years of marriage. We sold it before our last move because we concluded that it was a huge waste of time. There is an old saying: “Its easy to get along with what you’ve never had.”

In addition to the major sources of stress that I mentioned, ponder the umpteen minor stressers that will come with TEOTWAWKI. Do your best to eliminate as many sources of stress as possible, in advance.

Reference: “Social Readjustment Rating Scale” – Thomas Holmes and Richard Rahe. Published in Journal of Psychosomatic Research,1967, Vol. II, p. 214.



Letter Re: Illegal Alien Invasion in the United States

Jim:

I noticed that you have remained relatively quiet on the millions of illegal aliens that have been demonstrating in dozens of American cities this past week..was wondering if you considered the Marxist led demonstrations that call for the death, expulsion of Americans on our own soil by foreigners a threat or a concern? I find it disheartening that so many are chiming in about potential asteroid strikes yet no comments about the very real and present threat posed by so many millions right in our own midst. Hope American wake up, its seems that the 12-20 million illegal aliens are quiet awake, hope to see the 280+ million ‘legal’ Americans as well shake themselves from their slumber and start taking this ‘reconquista’ as the threat for what it really is. I myself have contacted my representatives here in Idaho, recounting my experiences of living amongst illegal aliens in California and recounting the utter devastation that their presence has proved to be in California (overcrowded schools, overtaxed hospitals, highways, insurance problems associated with non-legal residents, the travesty of a people that largely refuse to learn our language, do not embrace our culture, except for the basic concept of making money.) I find it odd that so many in the survivalist community have largely ignored this ‘clear and present danger’ and instead are scurrying to renounce supposed racial bigotry when that is not the point. The point is we have been invaded by a foreign people and the flow continues at the rate of a half division of people a day! When I lived in southern California I had several illegal aliens tell me to my face they were planning on ‘taking back’ the southwest. I was hearing this rhetoric nearly 20 years ago! It is now being said rather publicly and MUCH more frequently. The Marxist leaders of these mass demonstrations have even had the Mexican flags removed and replaced with American flags. (Better to fool the gringo with, I’ve been told!) The ‘Plan of San Diego’ has even been trotted out, a plan to ‘kill all males 16 and older’. You can Google that as well as all the other key phrase’s like ‘reconquista’ and see for yourself the seriousness of the threat. I hope that the ‘survivalist’ community decides to comment on this threat and plan accordingly. Best Regards! – JD in Coeur d’ Alene, Idaho

JWR Replies: Thanks for your comments. You summed up the situation very succinctly. OBTW, when Googling “reconquista” , I recommend also doing  a search on “Aztlan.”)

Although I agree with you that illegal immigration is a big issue, you have to consider that not everyone reading SurvivalBlog lives in the United States.(We have readers in 60 countries–see our hit map.) Our readers in England and Australia probably could care less about U.S. domestic political issues. I have noticed that the immigration issue has been well-covered in other media outlets. Trumpeting the illegal immigration issue on SurvivalBlog probably would not accomplish a lot. (Ditto for a lot of other political issues, which I consciously de-emphasize.) You can see that on a gazillion other blogs and web sites, such as The Barnes Review and American Patrol. Instead, I try to cover the survival-related topics that the MSM overlooks. Scroll through the subject lines for the past three or four weeks of SurvivalBlog postings. (Try finding those topics on CNBC or even on WorldNetDaily!)



Letter Re: Letters on Asteroid or Comet Impact in 2012? by Rourke

Jim:
It was funny that the majority of the criticism to my last writing had to do with the Mayan calendar and the Bible Code since I didn’t consider that my main focus and was meant as a lead in. I will say most prophecy is simply too vague to be useful, and the only time it really catches my attention is when separate sources, separated by thousands of miles, hundreds or thousands of years, and of different religions and cultures, somehow reach the same conclusion. My real intent was more so to play “connect the dots” with what NASA and the US Federal Government are doing along these lines. Do you realize that Yucca Mountain is a $48 Billion dollar project, meaning of course it will actually cost several times that (private sector utilities can only dream of that cash outlay). The drilling machine doing it is like the one that made the Chunnel between England and France, and the initial tunnel is 10 miles long. Since the US government won’t allow the reclaiming of spent nuclear material (like France does and we should too IMHO), presently all nuclear “waste” is stored on site with each reactor (a method which seems to have been working). If anyone would ask the private sector, I’m sure an above-ground facility on government land in Nevada (since nobody wants it in there back yard and the Federal government owns most of Nevada) could be done for a couple hundred million, and it could then be watched. Bury and forget for 10,000 years doesn’t sound like a good strategy, but it does allow for justification of building such a deep and gigantic underground system which could be used for other things. Presently we know about NORAD and Weather Mountain, and presume there are other such huge underground secret government facilities. (http://www.sauderzone.com/ubtlinks.htm -that one is the least UFO-based, so don’t start in on that please) Thanks in particular to Michael Williamson for that great link, which really makes the point it happened before, thus it will happen again. Remember, those are just the land strikes. Since the Earth is 2/3 water, statistically twice as many as shown on that site on land – have hit water and no doubt made tsunamis that made the 2005 tsunami one look like nothing. This should be a concern to anyone living anywhere near the ocean, and not on very high ground. Also, I am aware of the propulsion ideas, where land craft would land on an inbound asteroid and then apply thrust to send it off course. The problem there is we currently we lack the technology to do this to a sufficient extent. Comets (or “giant dirty snow balls”) are real wild cards, and according to many scientists impossible to stop (but they’ve been wrong). Remember the Near Earth Object Program has a stated goal of identifying 90% of objects one kilometer or larger, though they are identifying basically everything they can find. The fear is one sneaking up from behind the sun, or some viewpoint we can’t see very well, thus giving us almost no warning. The only thing I hope people take away is two fold: 1.) This is a serious threat with a long term proven history of catastrophes, and 2.) Keep an eye on what NASA is doing. If you knew, would you tell people? I agree with the comments that the general pubic (especially considering world wide) would probably not be as cooperative and well-behaved as portrayed in the movie Deep Impact. I’ll close this with another movie reference: Remember Close Encounters of the Third Kind? When the Piggly Wiggly semi-trucks start pulling into Yucca Mountain, worry and prepare.- Rourke http://groups.yahoo.com/group/survivalretreat



Odds ‘n Sods:

The Army Aviator mentioned this great article by Bob Carter in England about the global warming issue.

   o o o

SurvivalBlog reader “KYPD” mentioned that Mel Tappan’s book Survival Guns is now back in print. You can get a copy at Delta Press for only $24.95. Delta Press also has many other very handy books such as “Nuclear War Survival Skills”, “Where There Is No Doctor”, Where There Is No Dentist”, “Ditch Medicine” and other hard to find titles.

   o o o

Of interest to home schoolers–and anyone else interested in U.S. history: The story of the Gadsen (“Don’t Tread on Me”) flag.

   o o o

The dates for more rifle matches and clinics for the RWVA Apleseed Tour have been inked in:
Indiana, Evansville: April 29/30
Wyoming, Guernsey: May 13/14
Wyoming, Worland: May 27, 28, 29 (in conjunction with Boston T. Party’s Free State Wyoming Jamboree– but open to everyone!
Idaho, Coeur d’Alene: June 10/11
Alabama, Birmingham: June 24/25

   o o o

From Gold -Eagle: Philip Barton’s Commentary on Market Fundamentals.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“When written in Chinese, the word ‘crisis’ is composed of two characters. One represents danger, and the other represents opportunity.” – John F. Kennedy



Four Letters Re: Asteroid or Comet Impact in 2012? by Rourke

Jim:

I’d like to add some input to the meteor thread. First, there’s a near complete (based on our knowledge) and growing database at: http://www.unb.ca/passc/ImpactDatabase/ that shows the residual effects of quite a few impacts. Megaton range impacts occur surprisingly frequently–about once a century. Tunguska level events (that killed almost everything in 2000 sq miles) occur about every thousand years.
I don’t like Deep Impact as a scenario, because I cannot for the life of me see 300 million Americans, not to mention the rest of the world, just accepting that a select few will go into a safe cavern, without a global riot that would likely end civilization in the process.
The original and accurate story of this type of impact, involving a comet in this case, was Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle’s “Lucifer’s Hammer,” which I recommend all survival minded readers check out. It covers panic reaction prior to the event and during, and coping mechanisms for a post-holocaust world, including the problems (in 1976) that many children would have without TV. Add cell phones and computers to that (This is a serious emotional issue for current military recruits denied their cell phones and Internet for a couple of months) and a great many young people who can’t grasp the destruction will still be in psychological shock. Add in food, transport, disease and bandits, and it’s a grim tale without being excessively emotional.
The best way to deal with Earth-grazing asteroids is not to attempt to blow them up, but to use charges to divert them–a subsurface detonation can move enough mass to act as a rocket. This causes the asteroid to divert into another orbit that doesn’t intersect with Earth. Any large enough mass can’t be destroyed, but will gravitationally coalesce back into an effectively solid mass in fairly short order.
Related threats include the potential of Yellowstone every 650,000 years (It’s been about 650,000 years) to erupt and spew 200 cubic MILES of ejecta into the atmosphere. And a sufficient earthquake could trigger multiple Cascade Range eruptions from California’s Mt. Baker all the way up into Alaska. I’ve been threatening to write the SF story of a 50 megaton impact in Yellowstone triggering it, the Cascades, the San Andreas and New Madrid faults…
Speaking of the New Madrid Fault, it’s potentially more dangerous than San Andreas–the soil structure of the eastern US is such that ground waves are possible with a strong tremor. The effects could travel as far as the Carolinas and Pennsylvania. I’ll leave everyone with those cheery thoughts of Mother Nature for now. – Michael Z. Williamson

James,
I had the opportunity to speak to one of the Bible Code team rabbis and this is important for people planning their future to know. Bible code only works on five books of Torah. It doesn’t predict the future only several possible outcomes. Its purpose is to show evidence divine inspiration by being several hundred thousand times more organized and patterned than normal text.  Mayan calendar or any non -Torah based prophecy is derived either from necromancy or astrology. These two methods may appear effective but they are reading from the wrong end of the process and their purpose is to give free will to reject prayer as the real answer. [When you] rejects the Creator and worship the creation and your life will be ruled by the stars, I choose to be in the hands of G-d who moves worlds at his whim.

A comet strike story is well told in [Niven and Pournelle’s novel] Lucifer’s Hammer which covers many survival topics one of my favorites. If such a strike comes to pass it like all of life is just a step toward the final redemption. Happy and Kosher Pesech  (Our big bug out from Egypt) – David in Israel

 

Sir:
Rourke needs to check his facts. The Aztec calendar does not end in 2012 or any other date. It is as open ended a calendar as any other. There is a neat astronomical alignment at the end of 13-baktun/21dec2012, but that’s all it is- scientifically speaking anyway.- K

 

Mr. Rawles:
Good article on asteroid impacts. But as it lead off with the Mayan calendar ending in 2012, I must comment. What no one seems to mention when they talk about the end date is that it might not mean a darn thing. The Mayan civilization ended from resource depletion. Doesn’t it stand to reason maybe the guys that were making the calendar died off before they could finish the job? Sorry, I just had to comment. Take care, Great job, – Jim



Odds ‘n Sods:

SurvivalBlog reader R.H. forwarded us a link to an accurate summation of the illegal immigration situation in the U.S. by Cinnamon Stillwell.

   o o o

I just stumbled across a downloadable version of Mel Tappan’s book, “Tappan on Survival.” It is a “must read” for anyone who is serious about preparedness.

   o o o

SurvivalBlog reader “Merlin” mentioned that the documentary series “Victory at Sea” has recently been spotted on sale in WalMart DVD “dump bins” for only $5.50 for the entire series. That series is one of my favorite documentaries. (I included it my list of recommend videos in my Bookshelf page.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." – Theodore Roosevelt, Address at the Sorbonne, 1910



Note from JWR:

If you have not yet visited the web sites for each of our advertisers, please do so. They have some hard to find products at great prices.



The Silver Bull Gains Speed

Just over a month ago we were marveling at the fact that silver was solidly over $10 per ounce. I just checked the charts at kitco.com, (see: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html) and spot silver was at $12.80 per ounce! (As a data point: The New York close was at $12.05 just four days ago–Friday April 7th. Quite a change since then!)  At the current spot price, means that a $1,000 face value bag of pre-1965 circulated (“junk”) silver U.S. coinage worth $9,152 wholesale. (Assuming 715 ounces in a typical bag of well-worn coins.)

The silver market is showing all of the signs of a major long-term bull. Rather than the typical rallies and pull-backs, it is now “stair-stepping” upward. Thus, there is presently no chance to “buy on the dips” unless perhaps you buy on intraday dips.

The word on the street is that if New York spot silver closes at over $12.50 an ounce for three days in a row, then there will likely be a big short covering rally, or perhaps even a full scale “short squeeze.” As the short sellers scramble to cover their positions, we may see silver to zoom up to $16 an ounce, or higher. I’m still predicting $20 silver by next February (’07), and perhaps even $40 silver by the end of Aught Eight.



Asteroid or Comet Impact in 2012?, by Rourke

The abrupt ending of the Mayan calendar in December of 2012 has long been assumed to be an astrological catastrophic event for Earth (http://survive2012.com). More recently, the Bible Code has produced passages/matrixes that seem to announce a comet impact in 2012 (http://www.satansrapture.com/nasa2012.htm). [JWR Adds: Beware! Not Biblically supported doctrine at that site!] There are said to be two conflicting matrixes, once saying the Earth is annihilated, the other that the comet is annihilated. I realize what most people think of prophecy (unreliable, to say the least), so let’s take a more scientific look at this, and consider that if there was such an asteroid or comet coming and our government knew this, what would the government actually do about it?
Before I start, I should make sure that some key words are defined. An asteroid is a celestial body found especially between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter (asteroid belt). It is theorized that a planet, or beginnings of planet once existed between Mars and Jupiter, but that the extreme gravity of mighty and gigantic Jupiter busted it up into pieces. A meteor is a particle of matter in the solar system that are directly observable only by their incandescence from frictional heating on entry into the atmosphere (visible during Earth atmosphere entry as they usually burn up). Once a meteor hits the ground, anything you find of it is a meteorite. A comet is celestial body that consists of a fuzzy head usually surrounding a bright nucleus, and that when its orbit is near the sun develops a long tail which points away from the sun (has a big tail).
The idea or realization of large meteors striking the Earth and doing great damage is largely new to 20th Century thinking. The first proven meteorite creator is in Arizona http://www.meteorcrater.com/, http://www.barringercrater.com/science/ and in the early 1900s the owner went bankrupt searching and drilling for the meteorite as proof, when it is now believed it exploded on impact (sending tiny bits everywhere, thus leaving no large meteorite to be found). The famous and mysterious Tungsuka impact in Siberia of 1908 http://newsfromrussia.com/society/2002/06/29/31473.html is now recognized to be a meteor impact which completely exploded above the ground (thus leaving trees dead center under the blast still standing). Finally of course there is the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, which is believed to have killed 70% of all life on Earth at that time.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2002/06/0617_020617_fossilleaves.html You may be surprised to learn that this was not the only such mass extinction http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/diapsids/extinction.html, and there have be more. However, it was really the spectacular 1994 impact of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 into the planet Jupiter which ended the speculation about asteroids or comets impacting into planets. http://www.solarviews.com/eng/impact.htm
As this article points out, one look at our very pock-marked moon should be an indication asteroids we have and will likely continue to be hit both the moon and the Earth (erosion over time, from water, helps hide the Earth’s wounds). http://www.thesahara.net/asteroid_2002_nt7.htm. The results to us of such an impact would of course be disastrous, depending on the size, speed, and make-up of the asteroid or comet. http://www.sandia.gov/media/comethit.htm And also see.. http://www.pibburns.com/catastro/impacts.htm. However, just like with nuclear winter, if you survive the initial blast and any generated tsunamis (serious concern since Earth is 2/3 water of course), and stay underground, out of the potentially abusive weather, and wait for everything to settle out of the atmosphere, you can survive. But let’s focus on the issue of stopping the comet or asteroid in the first place…
In the past 25 years, Hollywood has taken a few takes on this issue of stopped an inbound asteroid or comet, and the work they did is worthy of consideration as a starting point. What I am trying to do is look at the facts, and then employ the “what would I do” method of backward engineering government decisions. In the recent movie remake of Pearl Harbor, Dan Akroyd, playing the role of an intelligence officer, is asked why he thinks Japan would hit Pearl Harbor when he has no hard evidence. He replies, “Well, it’s what I would do”. Such will be my approach here.

The 1979 movie “Meteor” starring Sean Connery introduced the concept of using nuclear warheads to try and destroy an incoming meteor (or asteroid actually, before it hits the Earth’s atmosphere). The movie Armageddon in 1996 took the thinking to the next level, realizing that surface explosions would be insufficient to break up an asteroid, and thus presented the idea of astronauts going to the asteroid and then “drilling” the nukes into the asteroid as the best approach to bust it up, or into two pieces at least. This production, staring Bruce Willis, was certainly exciting, but a little too fantastic. The most realistic of the movies made, IMHO, would be Deep Impact, released in 1998. The primary plan was similar to the Armageddon plot, which of course is simply too fantastic and unnecessary, but it was the government’s contingency plan C which really interested me. This was that if the astronaut mission failed (Plan A), and if a bunch of ICBMs launched when it was near Earth (Plan B) failed, there would be a national lottery for one million people (none over age 50 and 200,000 pre-selected government officials and scientists of course) to survive in a Ark made up of man made caves drilled into Missouri limestone with enough supplies to last 2 years (Plan C – “the rules of 3” right from Ragnar Benson, author of The Survival Retreat and others). Wages and prices were frozen, and people were made to “go to work and pay your bills”. Martial Law was declared and people were to be home at night. “Hoarding” was not allowed (though I still think that is a term not really defined as to where the line is, and the term is used as if people just seem to understand where that line is). There was an optimistic plan A and B which kept people going, and hoping, and in the movie that seemed to work and hold off the riots, though they did show characters putting up bars over their windows, meaning there were some problems. Other countries were left to do as they could.
Now let’s look at the facts, real life. NASA currently operates the Near Earth Object Program, who’s stated purpose is to identify 90% (highest they think they can get to) of the objects in space that may come into contact with the Earth. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov If you have never seen this site, take a look. Check out Close Approaches and Impact Risk in particular, but you will have to brush up on your math to remember how very large numbers are presented to the powers format with the little number superscript (i.e. thousand = 1000 = 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 103). In Close Approaches, note that a Lunar Distance (LD) is the average distance from the Earth to moon (~384,000 km or ~240,000 miles). So if an asteroid was going to pass 16 LDs from Earth, that would be 16 times the distance from the Earth to Moon.
Now before you laugh this off as such an event being less likely than you winning the Powerball lottery, you had better take a look at this link: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news149.html That one in going to miss the Earth by only 5.7 times the diameter of the Earth in 2029. That asteroid also has a diameter of 320 meters or over 1040 feet. How much damage could that do? Well let’s look back to the damage caused by the Arizona meteorite which was only 150 feet in diameter (<50 meters) http://www.barringercrater.com/effects/. We are probably talking about wiping out the better part of Texas here or worse. Note that the article says this is BELOW the level of geosynchronous Earth satellites. One more thing about the Powerball lottery; Why do people pay money to play something they know they have a less than 1 in hundred million chance of winning? Answer: Because the payoff is so large. Now reverse that logic as to asteroids; Why should you worry about the very very small chance a large asteroid or comet will collide with the Earth? Because the payoff is so large if it does.
Now I want to insert the “what would I do” if I was with NASA. My very first comment is that you don’t need a manned mission to nuke an asteroid or comet headed for Earth. There are two methods to “drill” a nuke into an asteroid. First would be to land a probe and have it land on the asteroid that had such automated capacity to drill a nuke in. I will note that this part was done back in 2001. Remember the landing on Eros? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1148071.stm and http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/solar_system/59734
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1162463.stm )
The second way makes more sense to me and is actually easier to do IMHO. Here you want to punch a nuke into the asteroid so you can just aim the satellite right into it. Torpedo it. The trick though is developing a nuke that would survive the harsh impact and then blow up at depth inside the steel or rocky asteroid or comet. The military calls these “bunker busting” weapons, originally made from old cannon barrels, and non-nuclear variants are nothing new at all, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_bunker_buster. It is interesting to note that exactly such a nuke has been in the research and development works of the US Pentagon for some time now. It’s called a RNEP for Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/rnep.htm ). This remains an issue of Congressional funding http://www.ananuclear.org/rnep.html Clearly using a penetrating bunker buster type tactical nuclear bomb could work for an asteroid or comet. Rather than going through the difficulties of a landing on an asteroid or comet and drilling, we could merely proceed with the presumably easier task of merely intercepting it (torpedoing it). This was exactly what the 2005 Deep Impact probe did by hitting an asteroid at 23,000 mph, a mere 200 feet off its target on a city-sized asteroid.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2005-07-03-deep-impact_x.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26386-2005Apr4.html
It is clear IMHO that scientists are considering this method for dealing with an inbound asteroid or comet. They even call this entire line of thinking deep impact.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/main/index.html
http://deepimpact.jpl.nasa.gov/home/index.html
Billions have now been spent developing exactly the technologies needed to deal with an incoming asteroid or comet. The question is, was there merely done a precautionary science, or do they have a reason to keep this research moving along. Consider it. What would you do, if you knew?

One final thought: As in the movie Deep Impact would the government build a gigantic underground shelter to house people for this period time as a backup plan? How could they hide such an operation of such scale? Perhaps by building it for a different purpose (cover story, or perhaps real alternative)? Where is the government spending billions hollowing out a mountain right now? Answer: Yucca Mountain NV. Why? For spent nuclear storage, officially. http://www.epa.gov/radiation/yucca/ And what is the proposed completion date before this becomes operational? I’m not joking. They say “2012 or later.” See: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,165203,00.html, http://ocrwm.doe.gov/ymp/index.shtml, and http://www.nsc.org/ehc/yuccamt.HTM

Here are two other sites of interest:
Meteor showers http://home.att.net/~thehessians/asteroidstrike.html
Meteor Impact game http://www.barringercrater.com/game/

– Rourke http://groups.yahoo.com/group/survivalretreat