America’s Economic Woes–Some Deep Schumer in the Near Future?

The U.S. housing bubble but has not yet popped, but it is starting to make funny noises. (See: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060306/housing_slowdown.html?.v=2) You have probably read that the Federal debt ceiling has been raised to nine trillion dollars. (See: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,138881,00.html) What is the point of calling it a “ceiling” if Congress keeps raising it every year? The U.S. Treasury is now technically bankrupt, but from a practical standpoint, how can you call the man with the printing press bankrupt? He just prints more, as needed. There are just more and more “fun tickets” in circulation, and their value gradually melts away. Ask anyone that has lived in South America. The same drama gets played out over and over again, in country after country. The biggest losers in an inflationary spiral will be bank depositors and pensioners. Is it any wonder that the savings rate in the U.S. is at an all-time low? Starting this week, the Federal Reserve will stop reporting the M3 aggregate money supply. This gives “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke carte blanche to monetize the Federal debt without public scrutiny. Meanwhile, both Iran and Norway are opening oil bourses that will transact their business in Euros rather than dollars. (See: http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150306.htm) The U.S. trade deficit has blossomed to huge numbers–far beyond the level at which Warren Buffet issued his stern warning a year ago. (See: http://www.parapundit.com/archives/002652.html.) Taken together, this does not bode well for the U.S. Dollar. Methinks we are headed for some deep Schumer. My advice can be summed up in one word: tangibles. I recommend that you put your money in productive farm land in lightly populated dry land farming regions, precious metals, and guns. Unlike dollar-denominated investments, at least those can’t be inflated away to nothing.

David in Israel: McGyver Fixed My Car

As with many survival related expedient repairs some of these fixes could present a fire or mechanical danger. As always work/learn with a responsible experienced mechanic, one who specializes in off road racing will often have good experience in how to squeeze a few more miles out of a damaged vehicle.
Diesel Engine Glow Plugs: if the glow plug control system goes down try running a parallel power wire from the plugs straight into the cab off of the fuse panel or cigarette lighter, try to determine amperage draw ahead of time for proper switches and wiring. Power the plugs for 5-10 seconds before starting, shut off power to the plugs once the engine is running. Fuel pump: if you have an older manual carbureted model you can drip feed a carburetor, better still a gravity feed into the fuel intake will let the carb work normally.
Fuel Injection: A real problem; in case of failure a replacement intake manifold or adapter and aftermarket carburetor is the best bet, keep a set in the shop for emergency. Write in with suggestions for a diesel with electronic fuel injection (EFI). Vacuum line hose and plugs: even the spark advance
and brakes can be plugged but engine performance and braking power will suffer, most lines run to clean air gadgets.
Air Cleaner: try using pantyhose or open cell foam, be creative but be sure that it is not going to get sucked into the intake potentially ruining the engine, window screen over the throat of the carb is advisable if attempting a homemade cleaner.
Smaller engines can often be modified for crank starting, but beware kickback, look at designs for crank-started cold cars and farm equipment.
As for motorcycles an off road bike with magnetos is a good choice, how I miss my ’93 Honda X-200R bugout special. Seek one with electronic ignition over points (the EMP required to destroy this high energy rated circuit would require a detonation so close by that the bike would be destroyed by heat and blast.) An electronic ignition lasts much longer than points with no maintenance required until failure.
Here is a site with some useful information on magnetos: http://science.howstuffworks.com/question375.htm
Someone who has access to a shop could modify a diesel generator motor mount to fit a motorcycle frame, a 12 VDC motor (scavenge from a car junk yard) could be built into a hand crank generator to light the glow plug if a bike without battery is desired. A cable clutch or centrifugal clutch is needed, possibly some motorcycle transmissions will mate with a diesel motor, e-mail in if you know of such a motor/tranny combo.
If your vehicle is designed for survival applications don’t let EMP fears be foremost, instead pick an easily repairable long lasting design that conserves fuel and other expendables. For the most part even EMP aside maintainability still leads to an electronics sparse vehicle. In truth as long as there is power for the ignition everything else is optional.

If EMP is truly a fear you can’t put out of your head, [removing and] wrapping in aluminum foil of the more sensitive electronics containing ICs (integrated circuits a.k.a. computer chips) will put you at ease. As I have written before, EMP is not a realistic concern for most vehicles, look at older EMP posts. Don’t swallow the Hollywood/TV science that EMP attacks will completely destroy vehicle electronics. EMP is most likely to damage electrical and communications infrastructure, while leaving most vehicles functional.

Letter Re: The Best Guns for Investment?

Mr. Rawles,
Could you mention some ‘investment grade’ firearms for your Survival Blog readers? In other words, besides investing in silver, what firearms (handguns, carbines, etc) would be potential investments for long range 10-20 years? Thanks! – Chad

JWR Replies: The biggest price gains will probably be in pre-1899 cartridge guns, as mentioned in my Pre-1899 FAQ. In my opinion, the real “comers” in today’s market are (in no particular order):

Smith and Wesson top break revolvers. I anticipate that S&Ws will nearly “catch up” to Colt prices in the next 20 years. The .38 caliber S&W top breaks are often available for less than $300 each, and .44s for less than $800. These are available from a number of antique gun dealers including The Pre-1899 Specialist, and Jim Supica (at The Armchair Gun Show).

Whitney lever action rifles. Long ignored by collectors, the Whitney rifles should appreciate tremendously in the next decade.

FN-49 rifles, especially the Argentine .308 model with detachable 20 round magazine

Colt factory 1980s and 1990s vintage black powder revolvers, but only if they are in minty condition and in original factory black or gray boxes.

Mauser military bolt action rifles that were imported in only small numbers. These include M1894 Swedish Mauser carbines, Persian M1898 Mausers, and Brazilian Model 1894 short rifles.

Burgess pump action shotguns. These are operated by a unique sliding iron pistol grip pump lever. The first model Burgess pump action shotguns are all pre-1899 production, since the second model was introduced in 1897, and production of the first model ended later that same year. Burgess was purchased by Winchester in 1899. Serial numbers for all Burgess shotguns begin at #1000. Any Burgess that has no patent date marks later than 1896 can safely be presumed to be pre-1899 manufacture.

Unaltered U.S. Springfield .30-40 Krag rifles and carbines, especially if pre-1899. (Serial number below 152,670)

FAL and L1A1 rifles. Since the parts kits for these rifles can no longer be imported into the U.S., the price of even post-ban clones is likely to double in the next ten years.

M1895, M1896, M1897 Orange Free State contract Mauser bolt action rifles. (Marked “O.V.S.”) Some also have Chilean crests. These are original Boer war contract guns and quite sought after by collectors! All are pre-1899. You can sometimes find these on gun show table in the hands of ignorant owners who don’t know the significance of the OVS markings.

Mauser and Mosin Nagant rifles that are stamped “SA” (Suomi Army) inside an oval. Many of these were used in Finland’s “Winter War.” You can sometimes find these on gun show table in the hands of ignorant owners who don’t know the significance of the SA markings.

Early (pre-1899) Marlin lever action rifles. The only models that are certain to be legally antique are the models for which ended production before 1899: the Model 1881, 1888, Model 1889, and 1891.

Pre-1899 Winchester rifles and shotguns of all descriptions if 80%+ original finish–especially if the seller doesn’t realize that what he is selling you is pre-1899, or the significance thereof.

Pre-1964 Winchester Model 70s and lever actions if 95%+ original finish.

Galil .223 and .308 semi-auto rifles in military configuration.(Not Hadars.)

Early Detonics Pistols.

If your goal is appreciation, avoid the following varieties, whose values have recently peaked: Johnson semi-auto rifles, Merwin-Hulbert revolvers, Colt single action revolvers (some double action models are still affordable), high grade European double rifles and shotguns, SIG rifles, Uzi semi-autos, HK-91s/93s/94s, and Steyr AUG rifles. Rumor has it that the latter may be produced soon in the U.S. which would cause a crash in the price of pre-ban AUGs.Wait for the depth of the next recession to buy any of the aforementioned guns–when unemployed owners are dumping them in desperation.

Letter From Rourke Re: The Vault Room: Preparedness in Tornado Alley, and

Jim:

A vault door may not be necessary unless you really need a blast door or you are very worried about theft. If you are far enough from a likely ground zero and able to at least somewhat hide your door, a steel fire door will probably suffice nicely. For bargains, look for commercial demolitions, or contact people or companies who do this. Tell them you are looking for a swinging conventional doorway sized steel fire door, preferably with the steel frame, dent and scratch is fine. If you must buy new, find a 90 minute rated steel fire door. They have cheaper ones for residential use–commercial is always at a premium. Consistent with the recommendations for safe room doors, you want minimum six points of attachment from door to frame. The best way to do this is three strong hinges with really heavy and deep screws on one side, and three deadbolts on the other side. You should space your deadbolts top, center, and bottom of the door handle side. To really be secure, add two more, top center and bottom center of the door. Go to a lock store or home hardware suppliers and get all deadbolts keyed the same. That can provide good security and protection at a more reasonable price. For combination entry, there are combination deadbolt locks also. For EMP concerns I would stay away from electronic ones. Those little key boxes that real estate agents use are nice, and can be hidden easily so you are never without a key. http://www.nokey.com/comlocbox.html Rourke – http://groups.yahoo.com/group/survivalretreat

Note From JWR:

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From David In Israel: How Freeze Drying Works

James:
I am sure the readers are interested in the way that industrial produced freeze dried foods are made. I was a kashrut masgiach (kosher supervisor) at a major freeze dry producer in the United States before I emigrated to Israel. Mashgichim are flown all over the world to places where there is no Jewish community to certify the kosherness of foods for consumption by Jews. (The laws of kashrut are much too complex to describe here). The plant I certified had two major types of chamber one that was bus-sized and another that was the size of a minivan. Trays were fed in by an electrical railroad placed on the floor, hundreds if not thousands of pounds were freeze dried at a time. The chambers start out at below freezing when the vacuum is applied and as the time passes (the program depends on the food) the temperature is raised to (again depending on the food and its temperature tolerance) up to around 150° Fahrenheit. Freeze drying is simply quickly subliming away all of the water, the same thing that happens in freezer burn. Vacuum goes a long way to assist the subliming
process, at a vacuum of 20 mmHg, water will boil at 15°C stay below the boiling temp until almost all of the moisture is gone. Freeze drying keeps the food both feeling and tasting much fresher by maintaining the basic cellular structure of the food just desiccating. A standard food dehydrator which I have used at home radically changes both the mouth feel and flavor not to mention making for high re hydration times, there is also the question of how much nutrient is lost long term due to oxygen exposure. Vacuum pumps are available used for reasonable prices a coop might be able to purchase or build and run a small chamber. If anyone is feeling creative and builds their own freeze dry chamber, please write in with your results.

Letter Re: Canadian Source for Long Term Storage Food?

Hi Jim,
I just recently found your blog and love it! I was hoping you might be able to help me out. I’ve been trying to find Canadian sources for bulk food/storage supplies and had no luck. Do you happen to know of any? Thanks! – Kim
JWR Replies: I don’t know of any major storage food packagers in Canada. Most are just distributors for U.S. packaged storage foods, and they tack on a substantial mark-up. They offer no real value added except for being on the far side of those pesky Customs Canada minions. To minimize shipping costs, you are probably best off ordering directly from a border state, like Idaho. Two firms that I recommend there are Walton Seed and Survival Enterprises. (The latter is one of our advertisers.)

Letter Re: Making Farm Field Water Runoff Water Drinkable

James:

I’ve considered as an emergency water supply the steady runoff from the cornfield behind us. It’s always at least a steady trickle even in the driest part of summer. Will a Katadyn filter or similar remove pesticides or other chemicals from it? Or should I plan on a small water still? – Mike

JWR Replies: If working with field runoff, first use a pre-filter to remove sediment. Just a couple of thicknesses of T-shirts over a five gallon bucket works fine as a pre-filter. Using pre-filtered water will greatly extend the life of your primary filter. Next, to filter out the majority of herbicides and pesticides, you should use a two-stage filter such as a Katadyn Combi Plus filter. These are available from a variety of Internet mail order vendors, such as Dom’s Outfitters. However, keep in mind that if runoff water ever become the your main supply of water in an extended disaster situation, no filter system is 100% effective at removing herbicides and pesticides. For that, you would need either a distillation or reverse osmosis system, which are far more complex and have large power requirements.

Two Letters Re: NiMH Batteries

Jim:

If left idle, a NiMH battery loses up to 1% of its original capacity per day. (This doesn’t mean that it loses 100% in 100 days; rather, it means that after day one, it is at 99%, after day 2, it may be at 98.01%, etc. — it will theoretically never reach 0%)

I bought a Grundig/Eton FRS250 hand crank radio a year ago. I used it every day for about two months and it would run for two or three hours on a two-minute crank. I then left it idle for about 8 months, after which time it would only play for about 10 minutes on a two minute crank. Needless to say, this is highly disappointing and constitutes a major flaw for preparation. (What good is an emergency hand crank radio if it doesn’t work in an emergency?)

To (hopefully) remedy this problem, I recently ordered an adaptor/charger from the manufacturer (Eton). If you hook up the radio to the adaptor/charger and leave it plugged in, it will send a low-voltage trickle charge to the batteries to keep them “topped off.” In theory, this should drastically extend the life of the batteries. Time will tell. If, six months from now, I can get still a few hours of play time on a full crank, then I will conclude that the trickle charger is the best solution to the NiMH problem. (Note that it is possible to “fry” NiMH batteries if the trickle charger is too powerful, so do your homework if you are shopping for one.)

Frankly, as popular as hand crank emergency radios have become, I am surprised that I have never read about this flaw in reviews and discussions. A lot of people who bought these radios and keep ’em in the box are going to be sorely disappointed when the lights go out and discover that their radio doesn’t work because the batteries are nearly dead. (Of course, even if the batteries are dead, the radio will still play if yo u constantly turn the crank, but that doesn’t sound too fun.)

Moral of the story: stock up on alkaline batteries just in case. – J.S. in Virginia

Hi Jim,
Regarding the question on the blog about storing NiMH batteries. Basically they do not store very well. Nor do they seem to last as long as they are advertised to. My company makes industrial equipment that uses small (2 AA cell equivalent capacity) NiMH battery packs. When we first started using them, we believed that they would last for five+ years and hundreds, if not thousands, of charge/discharge cycles. That was an expensive assumption for us. We have found them to last only for several hundred cycles and they tend to fail even before that number of charges if they are kept on a trickle charger. It also takes several charge/discharge cycles before they work at full capacity. We have also had a lot of failures with new batteries that have been sitting on the shelf for a year or so. In a survival situation, NiMH batteries self discharge from fully charged to empty in two-to-three months, so in a survival situation you will be starting with batteries of unknown charge. I generally would recommend against them. I have a bunch of NiMH AA cells for my camera, but the only practical way to charge them is using a charger plugged into my car. If you want to go solar, it will take will take a five watt solar panel of power and about a half a day to charge four typical AA NiMH cells of 2000 maH hours plus. My plans are built around my supply of alkaline AA/AAA cells that I rotate through every couple of years. I’m confident that even if they sit for 5 years in my refrigerator, my batteries will still have a good amount of available power. Regards, – P. Smith

Odds and Sods:

More silver ETF news: The Street.com

o o o

Update on Peak Oil: http://mondediplo.com/2006/03/03oilfields

o o o

I’ve heard that there is now just one slot left for the next specialized Tactical Lifesaver Course. This class will be held on April 15-16, 2006, in Douglas, Georgia. A Iraq war vet Physician’s Assistant (PA) will teach you a lot of skills that the American Red Cross doesn’t. (Such as: how to prep an intravenous infusion, how to insert and orthopharyngeal airway, wound debridement, suturing, how to treat a sucking chest wound, and much more.) Don’t neglect taking this course. See:http://www.survivalreportblog.com/Tactical_Lifesaver_Course.html Because this is a true “hands-on” course, space is limited. (Unlike pure lecture classes, which can be over-booked.)

Letter from Rourke Re: Safe Room Doors on Budget

A vault door may not be necessary unless you really need a blast door or you are very worried about theft. If you are far enough from a likely ground zero and able to at least somewhat hide your door, a steel fire door will probably suffice nicely. For bargains, look for commercial demolitions, or contact people or companies who do this. Tell them you are looking for a swinging conventional doorway sized steel fire door, preferably with the steel frame, dent and scratch is fine. If you must buy new, find a 90 minute rated steel fire door. They have cheaper ones for residential use, commercial is always at a premium. Consistent with the recommendations for safe room doors, you want minimum of six points of attachment from door to frame. Best way to do this is three strong hinges with really heavy and deep screws on one side, and three deadbolts on the other side. You should space your deadbolts top, center, and bottom of the door handle side. To really be secure, add two more, top center and bottom center of the door. Go to a lock store or home hardware suppliers and get all deadbolts keyed the same. That can provide good security and protection at a more reasonable price. For combination entry, there are combination deadbolt locks also. For EMP concerns I would stay away from electronic ones. Those little key boxes that real estate agents use are nice, and can be hidden easily so you are never without a key. http://www.nokey.com/comlocbox.html – Rourke (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/survivalretreat)

Letter Re: A Bucket Clothing Storage Idea, and the Importance of Lanyards

Sir:

I think that you could use the five gallon bucket to put your clothing in and treat it like we store the wheat–with a dry ice or nitrogen purge.

Lanyards are a great idea for a lot of gear. For example, I use foam ear plugs with string between them for less chance of losing them. At the retreat I use them in conjunction use the ear muffs over the ears. The uses of the nylon cord are limitless when you are out in the boonies: “Where are my glasses? For gloves, run string between them just like our moms did, down the sleeves in our coats. A lot of our equipment already has holes in the handles. as appropriate, make use of them for lanyards. You can pre-set the available radius with pinch [plastic sliding cord] locks. My dad once dropped an aluminum pipe wrench down a well. I told him: “Now you know what the hole in handle is for!” On my $ 3,000 Gen 3 night vision goggles, I never neglect to tie and tape a cord! Thanks for you time and effort, – Gordon P.S.: The $20 that I promised you for the “Ten Cent Challenge” is headed your way.

Letter Re: Choosing Between a Shotgun and a Rifle for Retreat Defense

Hi,
I was wondering if the following items that I already have are a good start on a survival kit and what else would be good to add on. Ruger .22/45 pistol, two 10 round magazines, stainless steel blade fishing knife with regular blade, gutting blade, small scissors, probe, and flashlight, cell phone with flashlight, Savage Arms .22 bolt action rifle with scope, salt packets, duct tape, cold cereal in a good sealed case, and a standard military issue canteen. Also, I was looking at a 12 gauge pump action over a .30-06 bolt action. Which would be better? Thank you for your time, I know I have a lot of work to do, but better safe than sorry. – Declan

JWR Replies: It sounds like you have made a good start at getting squared away. Keep up the good work. Build up your food storage systematically.

The choice of a rifle versus a shotgun involves your expected range of engagements. If you live in densely wooded country or an urban environment, the versatility of a shotgun makes sense. Otherwise, a .308 or .30-06 is more appropriate. As your budget allows, you will probably want to own both a large caliber rifle and a riot shotgun. Most likely in the interim between those two purchases you will want to get a major caliber handgun–at least a .40 S&W, but preferably a .45 ACP. Since you have been training with a Ruger .22/45, a M1911 probably makes sense. (The Ruger has its safety, slide release, and magazine release in the same locations as found on the venerable M1911.)

Logically think through the rest of what you might need in the event of a full scale collapse. Water storage and purification should be at the top of your list. For fixed site retreats, a British Berkefeld water filter is appropriate. In a tactical “on the move” situation, the smaller Katadyn filters work wonderfully. Both are available from Ready Made Resources and a number of other vendors.