Letter Re: Mercenaries a Post-TEOTWAWKI Threat

Dear Jim,
Looking at the concept of mercenaries post TEOTWAWKI [mentioned in Ron’s recently posted letter], I’m not convinced there is a valid threat there.
There are a lot of myths floating around about Blackwater specifically. I have several friends on contract to them in various capacities from maintenance to pilot to executive protection.
The relevant facts are that they are highly trained, highly paid (up to $1000 a day, depending on assignment and location), held to high standards of qualification (must be honorably discharged veterans, no criminal background and with relevant skill sets) and do specifically fall under the UCMJ when contracted to the military or in association with the military (including executive protection details on State Dept missions in Iraq). I keep hearing these stories of beer-bellied yahoos who don’t answer to anyone, but I’ve yet to see anything to substantiate that apart from vague allegations in the press.
Obviously, if a government collapses, it will not be hiring troops in that price range unless it’s paying gold or foreign cash. Even if it could, convincing politicians that 20 out of country mercs are better than 100 local recruits is a long shot.
As to low-paid, second rate mercs, history is full of them. They tend to be more hassle to the paymaster than any enemy.
I can’t see what they’d be hired to do other than guard government installations or private facilities with the desire and the money. “We’re hiring you to go rough up the civilians” doesn’t seem either cost effective, worthwhile, or doable, as in small groups they’d be readily defeated by numbers. And if things are that bad, I won’t be going anywhere near a government facility.
The condottieri of the Middle Ages were specifically small bands with training and weapons equal to the small local forces they faced–enough to defeat a village or small town. Without lots of supplies, any modern equivalent would just be another gang of armed men. In this case, armed professionals who’d prefer to dig in and take control of an area, rather than be roving bands. It’s quite likely a few of them read survivalblog, and they’re hardly the enemy. If such groups existed, it would be worth allying with them to build a community. Nor would they be likely to pillage an area, as it means less resources in future.
It is possible, in case of a total collapse, that such would become feudal lords. However, that would last only as long as they maintained the good will of the locals and had ammunition. Modern systems of government are far more effective and efficient. – Michael Z. Williamson

Odds ‘n Sods:

Some interesting economic analysis from Jim Willie’s Hat Trick Letter

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Causes of the recent rally in grain futures. If you haven’t done so already, stock you family up on bulk grain storage. Retail prices will likely double soon! See my Links page for a list of recommended food storage vendors.

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Russia accused of unleashing cyber war to disable Estonia

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Energy Efficient Desalination Takes A Step Forward

Notes from JWR:

My novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” is back in stock, with autographed copies ready for shipment from our order fulfillment partner up in Montana. I’m sorry that I ran out of inventory for more than two weeks. I’ll try not to let that happen again. See ordering details in my mail order catalog web page. I also sell autographed copies through Amazon.com. (Once there, scroll down to “Collectible.”) BTW, that is a bit quicker way to order, since I don’t have to wait for forwarding of a snail mail order. Amazon also takes credit cards.

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a selection of survival and preparedness books is now at $300. There are 17 brand new books included!

Letter Re: Where Was That Survivalist “Matchmaking” Service?

James:
I’m searching for a link you posted on your blog to a site that listed people wanting to network with other survivalists in their areas. The only thing I remember about the site is that you described it as little known since the hosts didn’t advertise it. I’ve been unable to find it the the SurvivalBlog archives and would appreciate your help in finding it again. Thanks!

JWR Replies: For liability reasons, I don’t post “matchmaking” announcements in SurvivalBlog. The post that you remembered referred to this “hidden”(unlinked) web page, courtesy of the folks at SurvivalistBooks.com. I’ve heard from several readers that they’ve used this service successfully. OBTW, if you use this free service, please give SurvivalistBooks.com some patronage. They have a great selection of books available.

Letter Re: Photovoltaic Versus Diesel Power Generation for Retreats

Hi Jim,
I was a reader of Patriots before the [Y2K] rollover. Thank you!. Here in the Northern New England, I made the same calculations, and decided to stockpile off road diesel and kerosene. The other major component is used vegetable oil, usually available free from restaurants, who otherwise pay to have it hauled by a recycling outfit. My 20 h.p. Listeroid diesel runs fine on waste vegetable oil (WVO). So does the 13hp Hatz backup generator, along with an ’85 Diesel Suburban and ’82 Diesel Rabbit. Filter the big stuff out using more coarse filters like a pillowcase. Filter the remaining fines through a good fuel filter, like a Racor, which should last at least hundreds of hours (2,000-3,000 miles.) I prefer the toilet paper filters available from Gulf Coast Filters or Franz. They absorb and trap water, filter to sub-micron levels, and cost two bits to replace. Remember that older diesel injection pumps were not designed for very low lubricity fuel like the Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel which is now mandated country-wide. Put some motor oil or veggie oil into your diesel tank to make your injection pump last. If you have a pump rebuilt, specify stainless (Arctic) components. They wear much better. Finally, if you’re relying on your gennie or diesel vehicle in a post SHTF era where lubricants may be scarce and expensive, filter your crankcase oil through a bypass filter. The same toilet paper filters work great. Use soft Charmin for fuel filtering, and 1000 sheet rock-hard Scottissue for crankcase oil. You can also burn used crankcase oil in your diesel engines. Just filter it first. Around here, it’s not legit to transport “waste” crankcase oil over the road, since it’s an environmental hazard, so I only move “used” crankcase oil. 😉 Be sure to store in quality tankage. You don’t want the stuff in your ground water! I drive slow and carefully. Regards, – David T.

JWR Replies: Thanks for sharing your knowledge, particularly on WVO. OBTW, you mentioned burning a mixture containing used crankcase oil in your diesel engines. That will indeed work, but keep in mind that used crankcase oil has been documented to be carcinogenic, because it contains polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH.) So use great care to not let any of it touch your skin when transporting/handling/filtering/dispensing it.

Letter Re: A Get Out of Dodge Physical Fitness Test

Jim,
First of all as a reader of your SurvivalBlog and a purchaser of your “Patriots” novel, your Rawles on Retreats and Relocation book, and a copy of your “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. I wanted to offer my thanks for your information and insight.

I am only a few months into the preparedness way of life but was hit hard this last week by an object lesson that I don’t feel gets the priority needed in some preparedness writings. My current physical fitness was tested as I re-shingled my roof and the realization I had at my lack of fitness while carrying shingles around was really shocking. I figured the shingles were easily the weight of carrying my child (if hurt or we are being evasive) or a heavy pack during a long trek during a Get Out of Dodge (GOOD) scenario. I was in the military and know the need for physical preparedness but if you don’t really stress your body periodically through a tough physical challenge you will not know what your fitness really is and how your age has affected it. Sure you can run a few miles a day or hit the gym during the week but when you have to perform under a true SHTF march how will your body really react? In a true SHTF scenario you have both mental stress and physical stress and you better know what your true fitness is or you will die. With a true knowledge of your fitness under stress you will pack a GOOD bag differently, know how to prioritize your transportation needs, and know how far you can really travel to a destination on foot.

You can purchase all the right equipment from surefire flashlights to $300 MOLLE packs but if the weight is to much for your true fitness you will succumb to muscle failure and a dull mind which makes you a much easier target. You will know a bike or trailer is a must to get over 30 miles due to your true fitness. Under a GOOD march to your destination you will not have time for under used muscles to recover or strengthen from the days trek. No matter how much you will yourself to make your destination if your muscles and joints give out you are again the easier prey for the wolves.

My bottom line is getting my family to safety if my vehicle becomes disabled and I have to walk the rest of the way and I sure don’t want my fitness to fail my family. A physical stress test should be a part of everyone’s preparedness. Take Care, – Defensor

Letter Re: Chemistry Knowledge is One of the Keys to Survival

JWR:
I’ve been thinking about a recent Internet writer who argued that we aren’t headed toward the 1890s [technology/infrastructure] (we should be so lucky); we’re headed toward 10,000 BC! (Due to oil depletion and resultant social chaos and die-off).
Regardless of “where we land,” it seems that among all the technologies at the disposal of humans, sustainable and not, chemistry is ubiquitous. Everything, or most everything we do or use involves use of chemical technology. The survival issues involving chemistry are obvious: soap, diesel fuel, disinfectants, water purification/decontamination, powder for ammo, etc, beer and wine, to name just a few.
The average guy probably doesn’t need to know stoichiometric equations to derive amounts of chemicals for reactions (although that is essential if you don’t have a “cookbook” telling you 1 unit of this and 2 units of that…), but it is equally obvious that a rudimentary knowledge of chemical reactions and processes will be essential when the Schumer hits, especially for the longer term TEOTWAWKI mode.
I found a couple of “survivalist applicable” books that I would highly recommend: Caveman Chemistry, and Caveman to Chemist, both sold by Amazon.com. Also, Principles of Modern Chemistry, by Oxtoby, Gillis, & Campion, is the best general Chemistry book I’ve seen.
It would be highly valuable to hear other forum members’ recommendations of sources of chemicals and chemical engineering information. Surely, there’s a lot out there if you can cut through the academic BS. – WarDoc

Odds ‘n Sods:

Our friend Ben sent us: Solar panels find a home with Amish

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Tim L. flagged this article for us: Off-grid farming in Canada

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From RBS: Global Mergers and Acquisitions Rise 60% to $2 Trillion, Led by Europe Deals and Leveraged Buyouts. It is clear to me that far too may money managers have deluded themselves into believing that the bull market in equities will go on indefinitely. Today’s entrepreneurs will be tomorrow’s contrapreneurs.

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At www.safecastleroyal.com, Vic is running a one-time “Food Load-up Sale and Membership Free for All.” The public gets buyers club pricing for a short time on all their emergency storage foods, including several brand new product lines. Any food purchase of at least $100 today earns you a free lifetime membership in the buyers club, which brings you discounts of at least 20% on everything in the store and free shipping all the time. E-mail Vic at jcrefuge@safecastle.net for the coupon codes.

Note from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction is at $200. As promised, here is a list of the books included in the current auction lot. There are now 17 brand new books included:

1. Modern Weapons Caching by Ragnar Benson
2. 101 Things To Do ‘Til The Revolution by Claire Wolfe
3. Woodstove Cookery by Jane Cooper
4. A Guide to Raising Chickens by Gail Damerow
5. The SAS Urban Survival Handbook by John ‘Lofty’ Wiseman
6. The SAS Personal Trainer by John ‘Lofty’ Wiseman
7. Breathe No Evil by Stephen Quayle & Duncan Long
8. Guide To Emergency Survival Communications by Dave Ingram
9. Ragnar’s Action Encyclopedia Volume One by Ragnar Benson
10. Ragnar’s Action Encyclopedia Volume Two by Ragnar Benson
11. Renewables Are Ready by Nancy Cole and PJ Skerrett
12. Plain-Talk Medicine for Uncertain Times and Places by Robert S. Berry, M.D.
13. The AR-15/M16 A Practical Guide by Duncan Long
14. From Seed to Bloom by Eileen Powell

… plus three of my autographed books: SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog – Volume 1 , Rawles on Retreats and Relocation , and a copy of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. This book package has a retail value of $397. Postage to the winning bidder is free. All of the proceeds of the auction will benefit SurvivalBlog. The names of the bidders (including the winning bidder) will be kept anonymous.

Letter Re: Photovoltaic Versus Diesel Power Generation for Homes and Retreats

Jim,
I am taking the 10 Cent Challenge and have made a contribution. I have been reading SurvivalBlog for about a month and intend to keep making my contribution for the next foreseeable future..This is an awesome site.

I have been wanting a solar array to add to my survival plan, According to the calculations I need to have the capacity to produce about 1KW adjusted to .75 KW. In order to adequately provide for my housing needs, minimal water pumping, lighting, small appliances, computer, phones, network, some TV, battery charging , fans for sleeping.

We are in Mississippi along the coast. Yes we were victims of [Hurricane] Katrina and lost nearly everything. Our house was still standing, though wet and [we had] no electricity for over 6 weeks.

I digress. As part of our plan we have since Katrina installed two diesel powered generators and still have the old gas standby one still running well from pre-Katrina Days. The 4,500 watt gasoline generator burns about a gallon per hour more or less when running to keep the water pumped, and make life reasonably tolerable.

We installed a bank of batteries, rated 990 amps of 12V at full charge, on an inverter/charger, (3KW/6KW 100 amp @12V). Re-charging them is simultaneous when running the generator.

One of the generators is a single cylinder 6HPrated Lister clone diesel ($950) which runs at a very low 650 RPM . It is connected to a 10 HP single phase generator ($689) and produces up to 39 amps of 115 VAC (about 8,900 watts) while only using about a 1?4 gallon of diesel per hour. This one runs whenever we need to recharge the batteries or during the summer months during the heat of the day when we need to air condition to make the house habitable. Did I mention we are on the coast in Mississippi? ( 95 degree days with 90% humidity.)

Our other generator is a 28 HP 15KW diesel monster ($2100) and it produces 72 amps of 230V while burning about 3/4 gallon per hour. It is only used when I need to do some heavy duty welding and not disrupt the smiling partner. (Note to all,– it is extremely important to keep your partner smiling).

While extremely fuel efficient ($ about 0.07 per KWH) the diesels do require to be fed and maintained. Except for the summer months, they run only for about 5 hours per day, doing the washing, pumping, and charging up the batteries for the overnight span. Overnight the only loads are the TV for a couple of hours, the computers and associated networking for a couple of hours, refrigerator, lighting , well pump and the ceiling fans in 3 bedrooms for sleeping. This works very well, and we are able to run most months on less than a barrel of diesel (50 gallons at $2.37 in today’s prices = $118.50). Our electric bill Pre- Katrina averaged over $250 per month. In effect we have achieved survivability and lowered our cost of utilities.

While the cost of our home grown electricity is low, on the down side, there is the noise factor and the constant cost of diesel , Thus I have researched extensively the Holy Grail of energy production, meaning Solar. Once in place the solar system requires no feeding (read $0.00) and very little maintenance. Where, oh where are the low cost solar photovoltaic (PV) panels?

The best I can come up with to generate up to ( note this is not a fixed number but is hopeful peak value) 900 – 1000 watts per hour of sunlight, is a cost of about $3,980 for materials.

Here in Mississippi we get 1,664 hours of PV usable sunlight per year. This sunlight would generate, hopefully 1,497 KWH at 90% efficiency. At current rates, and assuming no battery failures or charge controller failures or inverter failures (quite a few “ifs” in there) it takes a long 22 years and 2 months for break even. (Hopefully the system will last that long).

Sorry , but I am not quite that long-term oriented. I believe the best bang for my dollar is putting the same money into diesel storage (at today’s prices = 1,679 gallons) so that in the event of a TEOTWAWKI I will be able to maintain just as I am for about 38 months, or by stretching and economizing can survive for up to five years on this diesel.

What am I missing here? I know a lot of the puzzle is still missing , but where oh where are the low cost panels so that one could begin generating solar electricity for a reasonable cost of $1.00 per watt which will allow a payback within 5 years, or better still $0.50 per watt that would allow us to recover the cost within 30 months?

As for me, I am purchasing clean used 55 gallon drums without a removable top, for $5.00 each and am in the process of making the run every few days to the fuel depot to get the $2.37 /gallon off road diesel. Cached securely these will provide for our family and give great barter potential in an extended SHTF situation. Thanks, – L.W.

JWR Replies: The best prices that I have found on PV panels and inverters are from Ready Made Resources. They have some brand new panels at around $5.00 per watt. They also offer free consulting on alternative power system design.

Letter Re: 1/20th Ounce Canadian Maple Leaf Gold Coins

Jim,
I know your a fan of silver, but I noted that Canada is producing 1/20 oz gold bullion coins and it seems to be in .999 fine along with all their other Maple Leaf production this year. These are smaller than a US Dime, the 1/10 oz is about the same size as the US Dime.
I do business (buy and sell) with these guys but also occasionally buy form a place for cash in the Financial District of SF for cash of course with no paper trail, they give me pretty good price over spot. Cordially, – Tim

JWR Replies: The Maple Leafs are pretty coins, and they are indeed .999 fine, which make them desirable for re-use (industrial or jewelry making.) Just ask anyone from India what coins they buy to take home for wedding gifts. They almost universally prefer the Maple Leaf.

Unfortunately, all gold bullion coins come with a premium over the value of their bullion content, and sadly the steepest premium is on the smallest coins. The lowest premium that I have found on 1/20 ounce Maple Leafs is around $5 per coin. If you multiply a $5 per coin premium by 20, then you can see that you are paying $100 per ounce premium for each ounce of gold that you buy. (Presently, that works out to about a 16% premium over spot.) Ouch! In contrast, silver coinage can often be purchased with a premium as low as 3% over spot.

I would much rather buy circulated pre-1965 U.S. silver dimes, quarters, and half dollars. These are 90% silver. Not only is the premium lower, but they will be much more readily recognizable to whomever is on the other side of the barter table from you. If you hand them any gold coin, the first words from their lips will be: “How do I know this is genuine?” But if you hand them pre-1965 silver coins they will accept them with just a passing glance at their rims. (Post-1964 “clad” dimes and quarters show a copper layer at their rims.)

Odds ‘n Sods:

From the CATO Institute: The World’s Greatest Unreported Hyperinflation

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Australian water crisis could be worse than thought. Australia, one of the world’s wheat exporters, will actually be importing wheat this year.

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Hawaiian K. sent us the link to a:detailed analysis of oilfield depletion, at The Oil Drum web site

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“Ready Room” sent us an article about a Russian in-wention: A non-nuclear EMP generator