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Coping With Inflation–Some Strategies for Investing, Bartering, Dickering, and Survival

Statistics released by the Federal government claim that the current inflation rate is 4.3 percent. That is utter hogwash. Their statistics cunningly omit “volatile” food and energy prices. The statisticians admit that energy costs rose by more than 21% since last December. They also admit that Finished Goods rose 7.2%, and “Materials for Manufacturing” rose a whopping 42% , with a 8.7% jump in just the month of November. When commodities rise this quickly, it is apparent that something is seriously out of whack. Meanwhile, the buying power of the US Dollar is falling versus most other currencies. Not surprisingly, import prices were up 11.4% from 2006. Coincidentally, economic growth has slowed to a crawl–to just 1% growth. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan recently declared that we are in the early stages of a 1970s-style “stagflation” period. Since this new economic downturn was driven by a credit crisis rather than the traditional business cycle, it could very well be long and deep. Ironically, even though credit squeezes are considered deflationary for assets, this recession (or perhaps depression) will probably turn out to be inflationary at the consumer level. .

I don’t know about you, but here at the ranch, our four largest expenses each month are fuel, groceries, livestock feed, and insurance. I’m sure that you have seen what has happened to food and feed prices in the past year. Driven by higher fuel and fertilizer costs as well as huge demand for corn–for ethanol production–some food costs have gone up by 25%. Wheat, for example, recently spiked to $10 per bushel–a record high. With all of the preceding in mind, we can realistically conclude that the “real world” consumer price inflation rate is somewhere between 12% and 15%.

As I’ve written many times before, inflation is a form of robbery, albeit in slow motion. Since there is effectively only one currency in our country, it is the only way to do business. It may prove difficult, but you need to discard your traditional mindset about the currency and realize that we are riding a down escalator. An inflationary environment stands traditional logic on its head, since “Saving” becomes losing., and “Investing” is almost like throwing coins into a pond if the rate of return of any investment is lower that the real world inflation rate. The only noteworthy exception, is investing in tangibles, which I’ve discussed at length in previous SurvivalBlog articles. Obviously you can’t invest in anything perishable. But there are lots of things–like common caliber ammunition and full capacity magazines–that have storage lives that can span decades or even centuries.

With every passing day your savings are gradually eroded. With an effective inflation rate of 15% per annum, applying the Rule of 72 we can see that the purchasing power of every “saved” dollar is cut in half once every 5 years.(Well, 4.8, to be exact, but 12 month increments don’t look pleasing when expressed in decimals.)

The following are some of my suggestions on how to protect yourself from the ravages of inflation:

1.) Buy in Bulk

Buy most of your staple foods and groceries at a discount or “warehouse” type stores such as Costco or Sam’s Club. Don’t overlook the “close-out” and “dented can” stores. (But avoid buying any bulged cans, or cans with dented rims.)

Stock up on non-perishable items whenever they are on sale: thing like light bulbs, paper products, bar soap, house cleaning supplies, laundry detergent, lubricants, and so forth. As long as you protect these supplies from theft, moisture and vermin, they are better than money in the bank. (Again, money in the bank is being eroded by inflation.) These are tangibles bought at today’s prices, that you can use for many years to come. Here at the Rawles Ranch, we are still using up some spices, light bulbs, and aluminum foil that I bought at a military commissary in the early 1980s–at what now seem like absurdly low prices. My only regret is that I didn’t buy more of them! This approach to stockpiling was described in the modern-day classic book “The Alpha Strategy” by John Pugsley. (Download this free book and read it!)

For more details on stocking up including some detailed tables on shelf lives, see my“Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course with accompanying audio CD.

If your local zoning and fire regulations allows it, buy your own gas and diesel fuel tanks. Also consider installing over-size propane or home heating oil tanks. Always ask about the availability of used tanks or ‘trade-in” tanks. Who cares if they are in some odd color? Re-paint them flat forest green or earth brown. Wait and have your tanks re-filled each time there is a price dip. (Sadly, this is an increasingly rare occurrence, these days.)

When getting competitive bids from tank suppliers, be sure to ask them to lock in the price per gallon for the initial fill for each new tank. To win your business, the tank salesman might be willing to commit to a price that is a few pennies per gallon below current market. (This adds up on a 2,000 gallon tank!)

2.) Learn to Barter

Barter, by its very nature, shields you from inflation. Instead of using depreciating paper tokens as a means of exchange, you are directly exchanging a tangible for another tangible, or a service for a tangible, or a service for a service. As I’ve written previously in SurvivalBlog on several occasions, I do advocate stocking up on extra items for barter. However, it is with the proviso that you do not embark on buying goods dedicated for barter until after you have your family’s essential beans, bullets and band-aids squared away, following a well-balanced logistics plan.

Here in The Un-named Western State (TUWS), there is a lot of bartering that goes on, quite informally. I see it all the time: Cartridge Reloading for Snow Plowing, Eggs for Honey, Firewood for Horse Training, and Zucchini for just a smile and a thank-you.

To be useful in barter, choose items that have most or all of the following seven attributes 1.) Have appeal/usefulness to the majority of the citizenry. 2.) Be immediately recognizable. 3.) Have longevity. 4.) Be easily divisible. 5.) Be relatively compact and transportable at reasonable cost. 6.) Have consistent quality. 7.) Have limited availability. Let’s discuss each of those briefly, in turn.

1.) Have appeal/usefulness to the majority of the citizenry. Nearly every family uses soap, but just a few need #7 Singer sewing machine needles.

2.) Be immediately recognizable. Name brands need no introduction. All others are suspect.

3.) Have longevity. Keep shelf lives in mind. If you cannot barter it all away before it goes bad, then you are buying too much. Even coal has a shelf life.

4.) Be easily divisible. Boxes of matches, boxes of cartridges, coils of rope, balls of twine, and cans of kerosene are perfect examples. OBTW, if you plan on dividing a commodity in barter transactions, then be sure to have the containers needed for parceling it out.

5.) Be relatively compact and transportable at reasonable cost. Toilet paper has great appeal, but just $500 worth would completely fill the JASBORR.

6.) Have consistent quality. (For example, precious metals coins of known purity, or ammunition from a major manufacturer such as Winchester, Remington, or Federal.)

7.) Have limited availability. I mentioned zucchini earlier, for good reason. In North America, jars of freeze dried instant coffee would be ideal, but in Central America, they would probably be laughed at.

For some extensive lists of potential barter items suggested by readers, see the SurvivalBlog Archives for October 2005 and November 2005 (scroll down to November 1st and 2nd)

For a good rationale on selecting barter goods, see this SurvivalBlog article by OSOM.

 

3.) Learn Several Valuable (Barterable) Skills

Every family should have at least one home-based business that they can fall back on, on the event of an economic recession or depression. Concentrate on skills rather than goods for barter. The beauty of having skills to barter, is that most of them don’t require much raw material. So, unlike barter goods, you will never “run out”. By extension, it is best to have a skill that requires very little raw material. A profession or skill that also requires a specialized tool set is fine. However, if the skill also requires delivering a factory-made device to complete each transaction, then you might consider doing something else. (For example, installing burglar alarms might be profitable as long as you have a source of resupply, and as long as the power and telephone networks are functioning. But in a grid-down TEOTWAWKI how long could you continue running such a business?)

Avoid developing a skill that appeals only to wealthy customers for discretionary spending. Those are the purchases that will be delayed or skipped altogether in an economic depression, Hence, shotgun checkering and engraving are poor choices, but septic tank pumping is a good one.

Concentrate on a business that can be operated without the need for grid power. It is notable that most of the businesses in this category existed in the 19th Century. Who knows? Maybe buggy whip makers will make a comeback in the Second Great Depression

Ideally, you should have two or even three supplementary income businesses that you can fall back on to pay your mortgage and to buy necessities, if you lose your job. Depending on the severity of the coming recession or depression, some home-based business may thrive, while others won’t. It is hard to predict which businesses will do well (although we have some clues based on the experience of the 1930s,) so there is safety in redundancy.


4.) Learn How to Pinch a Penny

Here are some suggestions (in no particular order), some of which I’ve borrowed from “The Encyclopedia of Country Living” by the late Carla Emery. (The Memsahib and I both highly recommend this book.)

Distinguish your needs from your wants.

Research and do some comparison pricing before any purchase of more than $10. Do extensive comparison pricing before any purchase of more than $100.

Never buy on impulse. Plan your purchases well in advance, do your homework, and be patient.

Refer to back issues of Consumer Reports magazine (at your local library) before making a purchase of a major appliance

Develop the habit of dropping by thrift stores, second hand stores, used book stores, and pawn shops.

Find out on which days particular items are discounted at thrift stores. (Often by a system of colored price tags.)

For big ticket items, do lots of comparison pricing via the Internet. If you decide to buy locally, then bring the price print-outs with you, to use as “ammunition” when you dicker.

Buy off season. Buy winter clothes in summer, and vice versa. Buy livestock in October and November, when owners are facing expensive hay purchases if they “winter-over” their stock

Use a clothes line instead of an electric clothes dryer.

Utilize the MSN Autos Web Page data for the best local gas and diesel prices. This is particularly important when you re-fill your cans and drums.

Heat with wood. Cut, haul, split and stack the wood yourself

Buy your guns and ammo at gun shows, not at gun shops. Learn how to dicker for the best prices.

Buy at farm auctions, but beware of impulse purchases and run-away bidding. Make a list of your maximum bids during the preview and and then stick to it religiously. Never bid emotionally, and never jump on on the bidding for an article unless you planned to bid on it before the auction began.

Build/make/sew things for yourself rather than buying them factory-made

If you use any national brands, then clip coupons. Keep your coupons well organized (many folks like to use an accordion folder and they keep it handy in their car), and don’t lose track of coupon expiration dates.

Buy most items used, rather than new. Never buy a new “big ticket” item like a car or truck “factory new”. Be sure to refer to Edmunds.com before making any vehicle purchase, to make sure you aren’t getting a “lemon:” model or model-year. If you are buying a used vehicle worth $5,000 or more, then it is worthwhile to pay $8 for a vehicle history report.

Negotiate prices with merchants. It is amazing who is willing to negotiate. (But I’ve had no luck in talking down bridge tolls. I’ll keep trying.)

Spend some of your Saturday mornings at garage sales and yard sales. Dress down when you go, and don’t be afraid to negotiate for better prices.

Check Craig’s List and your local “penny” or “nickel” classified ad papers frequently for free and bargain items

Avoid fashion trends. Dress and drive modestly.

Find out when there is a curb-side “free hauling” day offered by your local waste disposal contractor. If allowable by local law, cruise through the neighborhoods the night before the scheduled collection with your pickup or trailer. This is the way we found the majority of our small livestock cages.

When buying things from private parties or small businesses, offer other items or your skills in barter.

Watch for free tours at educational places like factories and museums.

If your community has a well-established local currency, then utilize it to the utmost.

Plant a large vegetable garden. Get plant starts for berries and other perennials from neighbors

Cancel your newspaper subscriptions and carefully limit your magazine subscriptions. These days, there is so much news and information available on the Internet free of charge (you are looking at some of it right now) that hardcopy newspapers are for the most part expensive dinosaurs. Two notable exceptions: 1.) If you are a consistent and well-organized coupon clipper. If that is the case, then you might want to get a “Sunday paper only” subscription.), and 2.) Subscribing to a small town weekly newspapers in your retreat locale. Reading one of these papers regularly is important for developing local intelligence and for “fitting in” by being knowledgeable about local geography, personalities, events, politics, and lore.

Change your own oil and make most of your own car repairs.

Buy a food dehydrator. It will pay for itself many times over.

Learn how to do your own canning. Once you have, you’ll have no excuse to ever buy another store-bought jar of jam, jelly, or applesauce.

Buy dairy goats or a cow. Sell or barter the excess milk, or feed the excess to your chickens and/or hogs

Cut out needless expenses. (Like those $4 lattes at Starbucks and $20 trips to the movie theater.)

If you have a mortgage at a rate that is more than 1.5 percent higher than the prevailing rate, then consider refinancing. Just beware of any hidden costs and of course avoid Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs.)

Swap CDs and DVDs with friends and relatives or check them out from your local library rather than buying new ones.

Develop a budget, and stick to it.

If you have a credit card then pay it off in full every month. No exceptions. Don’t fall into the easy credit trap. Remember, the card is only in your wallet for convenience, emergency expenses (such as car repairs when travelling), and as a means to gain frequent flier miles or points for programs like gasoline purchase rebates. If you recognize that you don’t have sufficient self control, then leave your credit card(s) at home–or cut them up.

Make detailed lists of all of your expenses, and scrutinize them weekly. Look for ways to reduce expenses.

Shop around for the lowest car/health/home/life insurance rates. A few hours of research on the Internet could easily save you $500+ per year.

Unless you know for certain that you want a book as a permanent reference, then use the public library or try to find it online. Don’t overlook the inter-library loan system.

Get the free Skype software, and encourage the friends that you call often to do likewise. This will greatly reduce your long distance phone bill.

Take advantage of free or low-cot straining available from organizations like the American Red Cross and FEMA. (Just don’t be ware of any socialist/statist nonsense that they try to feed you along with the training.)

Learn how to repair small appliances and engines.

Don’t buy store-bought meat. Hunt for or raise your own.

Handload your own ammunition.

Get out of debt and stay out of debt. Paying interest is throwing money away. Forestall making purchases to avoid indebtedness. Instant gratification creates decades of debt.

Proviso #1: Do not attempt to save money by foregoing carrying insurance, or by forestalling any expenses that have an impact on health, hygiene, or safety. For example, if your windshield gets cracked beyond repair, then replace it. If your chimney needs cleaning, don’t delay cleaning it. (But of course buy your own brush and rods and learn how to do the job yourself.) If you have a toothache, don’t delay in seeing your dentist. (But ask about possibly paying in barter when you do!)

Proviso# 2: Don’t be Penny wise and Pound foolish. If you are a highly-paid professional, then take into account the value of your time. For example if you are an anesthesiologist, you should probably find a few more billable cases rather than taking up handloading.

Proviso# 3: Don’t skimp on education. That is an expense that will make you money in the long run.

In closing, remember (and recite frequently) this old adage: “Use it up, wear it out, make do, or do without.”

Letter Re: A Significant Wheat Shortage is Looming in the US

Mr. Rawles,
I found an interesting and alarming article from CattleNetwork.com on grain supplies.

Especially note these parts:
“In fact, export sales of U.S. wheat are beginning to look like panic buying. Overseas buyers are purchasing ahead anticipating the U.S. will run out of wheat, which is exactly what may happen for hard red winter and white wheat. Wheat exports simply can not be sustained at current levels. Either price will have to increase more to ration the remaining supply or, as was rumored in grain markets this week, the U.S. government will step in to embargo further wheat exports.”

and,

“In the report, U.S. ending stocks of wheat, corn, and soybeans were all lowered, mostly because of stronger than expected exports. U.S. wheat ending stocks will be the lowest in 32 years, although global ending stocks were raised slightly. Corn ending stocks were lowered by 100 million bushels, however, U.S. ending stocks are still at a comfortable and market neutral level. Soybean ending stocks were alarming. The USDA lowered them to 185 million bushels, down 68% from last year at this time and only 6% of annual usage. That means at the end of this soybean marketing year; next August, the U.S. will have about 3 weeks and 2 days of soybean inventory left in the bottoms of bins scattered around the country.” – CA in Oregon

JWR Replies: Let this serve as a warning: It is high time to stock up if you have not done so already. A family of four should have at least 600 pounds of hard red wither wheat on hand. Shortages push prices only one direction. Consider your wheat better than money in the bank. Wheat at $10 per bushel may seem high now, but just wait a year or two. You will be very glad that you bought when you did. OBTW, please try to give the SurvivalBlog advertisers your business, first. Thanks

Odds ‘n Sods:

SF in Hawaii suggested a deer hauler (such as item # QW-223606 sold by Cabela’s) as a cross-country bug-out option. It would certainly allow someone to carry three or four times as much weight as they could in a backpack.

   o o o

Stephen in Iraq e-mailed us a link to a Bloomberg article: Wheat Price Surges Above $10 for First Time on Supply Concerns . Stephen’s comment “Notice this paragraph: ‘Higher food prices are forcing some Italians to eat at soup kitchens and threatening unrest in China, where a stampede at a supermarket sale of cooking oil killed three people in November.’ It wouldn’t take much for the same thing to happen here. Folks better stock up on wheat products soon!”

   o o o

From The Oil Drum: Home Heating in the USA: A Comparison of Forests with Fossil Fuels

   o o o

Rourke (the moderator of both the Jericho Discussion Group and The Sarah Connor Chronicles Yahoo Discussion Group found this for us: NPR’s uncharacteristically well-balanced review of “I Am Legend“. (But note how the radio journalist slipped in the word “hyper-survivalist.”)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Oh, wad some power the giftie gie us
To see oursel’s as others see us!
It wad frae monie a blunder free us,
And foolish notion.” – Robert Burns

Note from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $170. The auction is for a scarce original 1980s-vintage Heckler und Koch 19mm Emergency Flare Launcher (EFL) aka “Notsignalgerät“ from my personal collection. It comes with three magazines and 28 scarce original German 19mm flares–10 red, 10 white, and 8 green. Together, this package is worth approximately $400. It is not classified as a “firearm” under Federal law. (Consult your state and local laws before bidding.) Sorry, no overseas bids will be accepted for this auction. This auction ends on January 15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.

Letter Re: Preparedness on a Very Tight Budget

Mr Rawles,
Having read your reply to S.’s letter “Preparedness on a Very Tight Budget” I must say you made my day! It made me realize that I am much better off than I thought and on the right track.
I am one of those weird (smart?) people who was raised in the city, but for some reason, never belonged. From earliest childhood, I was always “preparing” long before I really knew what for. In other words, I was not your typical “raised in captivity” child. I learned to sew at nine, and spent a lot of time making sleeping bags and fancy wall tents for my Barbies, then set up elaborate campsite in the backyard, complete with chopped firewood, and water storage systems. (I did say I was weird, remember?)

I also used to spend weeks playing dolls with my sister and friends, but not like most girls. We had a favorite scenario in which we ran a huge orphanage which sprung into being because of some horrible disaster. The disaster didn’t matter. What mattered was being able to care for all our babies with no power or outside help. (I nearly set the basement on fire once during these episodes)
Later when my family moved to a suburban/rural area, I was finally able to indulge more aspects of my survivalist side. I got into horses. And I mean I lived and breathed horses. Not just the typical horse crazy girl stuff…no, I had to practice loading my severely injured (or dead) friends onto my horse, practiced packing all sorts of gear on my horse, etc.

I began target shooting as a youngster with my father (who also took me on long hikes from the age of six on) but during my teen years I learned how to reload, thanks to a wonderful like-minded guy. We were kindred spirits, and spent hours reloading during the week so we could shoot for hours on the weekends. He taught me how to field strip a .45 Model 1911 in under 45 seconds blindfolded, among other things. ( Can’t you just see the headlines if some high school kids were seen doing this today?)

I began gardening, canning and dehydrating at 16. My mother thought I’d lost my mind when I came home all excited about the fact that the owner of the stable where I kept my horse said I could plant a garden in the old chicken pen. I was sure busy that summer.

Fast forward 6-7 years: I am now married and having babies. After living in dinky houses in town, I convince my husband to buy a house on acreage. We find a wonderful little 800 square foot house on five acres about 20 miles from where we work (which was in a very small town about 20 miles from a large metro area) And the cycle started in my childhood continued.

I raise horses, goats for milk and make cheese, cows for meat, chickens for eggs and meat. I try my hand at rabbits, successfully building a huge herd of breeders, and selling fryers commercially for a couple years before a family disaster forced me to sell. My garden is bigger, and I can enough to see us through every year till the next garden. Pigs are raised on leftovers. We heat only with firewood. Life is busy, but good.

Later, when the kids are bigger, I get into a sport that seemed custom-made for me. Endurance riding. We had moved from our five acre place to a larger spread which bordered on State land, and I began spending hours riding alone for miles every day of the week. (I quit working outside the home when my kids were 2 and 4 years old. I didn’t see the point of paying someone else to raise my kids.)
Even some of my endurance friends say I take it to the extreme. I always pack everything imaginable with me: Pistol (and rifle during hunting season) first aid kit, feed for my horse, food for me, shovel, saw, you name it, it’s on my horse or myself. Everything except a cell phone. Nearly everywhere I ride a cell phone doesn’t work, so why bother? I feel they just give a false sense of security and prevent proper survival thinking.

Fast forward 20 years: I divorce and start over. My kids are grown and I am thoroughly pleased with how they turn out. My daughter learned early on how to do oil changes and tune-ups on the old Ford pickup trucks I always drive. My son took his skills further. He can rebuild any old rig from the ground up. They both know a lot about farm animals and gardening, and both are avid campers. Both shoot, though my daughter can’t hold a candle to her brother. He is by far the best shooter I have ever seen. I once watched him shoot a starling through the neck from 75 yards, offhand in the wind with a .22 [rimfire rifle]. The bird was sitting at the top of a 75 foot fir tree, and my son told me beforehand where he was going to hit it. Recently my kids have both come to the conclusion that their survival would be well served by learning even more of Mom’s skills. Both (and their other halves) are joining me in the spring to become more proficient in gardening, canning, and we will be raising cattle and pigs together.

I am very lucky to have bought a wonderful 13 acre place with a delightful but tiny 130 year old homesteaders cabin. We have two year ’round springs. We heat with firewood cut here and on many of our wonderful neighbor’s places. We have a small orchard, a huge garden (about 3,000 square feet, with room for more) and tons of pasture. I say we because I was very lucky (and smart) to have married again. And I married that wonderful man from my high school years who taught me to shoot and reload! My kids adore him, and though they live in town, they are out here all the time. My husband and I have a very good skill set between us I don’t think there is anything we can’t do, from blacksmithing to soap-making and all manner of other skills esoteric and arcane.

In the past several years the kids in particular have all realized that our survival skills are not just some game that is fun to play. We have gotten very serious about our future and how to deal with the up-coming disasters whether large or small. I read your novel “Patriots” several months ago and thoroughly enjoyed it. I discovered your blog about a month ago, and I am hooked. I love all the advice, and I am even more thrilled that there is some information here that I had either not though of, or not gotten deeply into.

We have all been tossing around the idea of moving elsewhere, though it just isn’t possible at the moment. And I am not sure we really need to. This place is nearly perfect. It is 25 miles from a major metro area, (But right off a two lane highway, though the major highway out of the metro area is on the other side of a huge river) safe and consistent water supply, etc. The only problem which needs to be addressed is defense. It’s not a horrible place to defend, but it does need work.

So for now, we are continuing what we have always done and making the place more defensible. We are all honing skills, and keeping an eye on the world. And we are also looking into moving to a better place in 3-to-5 years.

The last paragraph of your reply was what prompted me to write. Thank you for making my day. It really made me feel good to see that I am already doing what you do. And those hours of sweat versus dollars are great for keeping you in good shape! Best Regards, – J.F.

Three Letters Re: The Sovereign Deed Scheme–Can Someone Just Buy Survival?

Jim,
I enjoyed reading article you recently linked entitled “Is Survival Only for the Rich?” The company’s idea to provide “we’ll save you if you pay us enough” services is nothing new. Private security firms
swooped down to protect the estates of their ultra-rich clients in New Orleans after [Hurricane] Katrina hit. Here is but one article covering that subject.

This being said, I don’t think one should be critical of the very wealthy for making such arrangements. Who wouldn’t want the ability to have Blackwater protect your home as the Golden Horde approached?
Unfortunately, this is not an option for 99.9% of the population. Further, if a [Hurricane] Katrina style disaster hit on a much larger scale, private security firms and such would not be able to fill every wealthy person’s request for assistance. They’d be in the same boat as everyone else. Whether you’re lower, middle, upper, or upper upper class, when SHTF, you’ll be relying on your ingenuity, resourcefulness and equipment. Those that prepare in advance, regardless of income class, will have the clear upper hand. – Ranger Man

Jim,
I found the link to the article “Is Survival Only for the Rich?” quite interesting. It reminds me of the late 1970s, another period of interest in “survivalism.” Towards the end of that period several commercial schemes sprang up to build survival outposts for sale to the public. By necessity, these projects appealed to the better-off members of our culture. The plan for a huge underground community in the southern Utah desert comes to mind. But I think those projects signaled a top in the survival market. Not long after, the general social mood improved (refer to the socioeconomic aspects of the Elliott Wave model) and most “survivalists” went on to [become] stock brokers and day traders.

When I believe in something fervently, as I do in preparedness, I am always asking myself “what am I overlooking?” This article has me thinking “time to start looking for signs of a top.” I knew the top was “in” in 1982 when a mainstream magazine ran a detailed article entitled “Is the Sky Falling?” talking about all the professionals who had escaped to the Rogue River [Oregon] area.

It’s not that I don’t believe in problems in the future, I just tend not to trust myself when my belief level elevates. – BAC

Jim:
I was looking at the link you put up for ‘Is Survival Only for The Rich?’ and there was a link to Sovereign Deed company. This is a company that if you pay a fee of $50,000 plus $15,000 a year, will come and get you if the excrement hits the rotating turbine blades.
Here are some relevant web sites and newspaper articles:

Rougely Stated.
Petoskey News May 26, 2007
Petoskey News July 6, 2007
Michigan Messenger
Wikipedia Entry on Sovereign Deed

I hope you all have a good Christmas and New Year.

Letter Re: The Survivalist’s Coffee Cup

Dear James Rawles,
I wanted to add some useful additional information on the use and storage of green coffee beans, home roasting and on the use of chicory. Canned vacuum packed ground coffee is horrible tasting after one year. Great for soil amendments at best.
I have bought and stored green coffee beans for more than 10 years as a part of our survival and barter larder. The oldest left in rotation to date in dry storage is seven years. I purchase in bulk yearly when the season is harvested from my favorite coffee bean varietals. I started off buying bean samplers of geographical varieties obtained from a local roaster (search the web for green coffee beans) and now purchase most of my beans from Sweet Maria’s to try out the different taste qualities of various beans from different new country offerings. I also study my history of keep ability in long term storage by using these different storage methods: vacuum packing the bulk beans, freezing them, and also by bulk packing them in food grade plastic storage containers using the nitrogen packed dry ice system. Of these, I recommend bulk buying(much more economical), vacuum bag packing in 1/2-pound quantity, (this is the amount I roast per batch), and then additionally nitrogen pack in smaller food grade plastic buckets stored in a cool dry environment, in no more than 70 degrees. The seven year old beans are still dull pea green in color, the moisture content is stable and the oil content is not rancid or off flavor. The caffeine is intact within the bean.
This is what I have personally found in my trials. Coffee beans’ caffeine potency seem to be co-dependent on the percentage of natural oil in the bean varietals which is dependant on the indigenous soil and temperate climate of the specific environmental region or geographical area that they originate. I have found through my purchases that cooler Mountainous regions are renowned for supporting superb beans with higher bean oil content and caffeine content. Warmer, dryer regions have strong flavor, less bean density but, actually store better and longer in variant storage temp conditions. Try different beans and draw your own taste and caffeine conclusions for your individual needs. Coffee for me is a necessity for survival situation alertness especially in prolonged periods of security post lookout. Its use as a homeopathic for Migraines is warranted.

The roasting process is crucial if you have a discriminate palate as it releases the oil with its length of roasting and colors the beans and gives you the taste you’re after. Roasting also immediately affects coffee bean shelf storing longevity… the longer and darker the roast, the more oil is rendered out of the bean, thus, the bolder also is the flavor of your cup. Dark Roast and Espressos are not for the faint of heart, I mean this literally, and NOT recommended for persons who are prone to palpitations. Coffee should not be consumed if you have a heart condition. It can be used for treatment of classic Migraine headache at its onset. It acts by causing vasoconstriction of the cerebral vessels. One strong cup will help stop the subsequent migraine cycle of symptoms.
I have tried many home roasting methods; use of a cast iron pan on the stove top stirring with a wooden spoon, using a hand cranked popcorn popper with an inner stirrer, using a chestnut roaster on the wood burning fireplace. Know this one common fact; roasting indoors is a smelly proposition and the beans smell and smoke a lot, enough so to turn on your smoke detectors! I recommend doing this outdoors if possible. Use your barbeque grill on high (not energy efficient unless you’re also cooking on it), or invest in a hot air drum roaster and roast on your porch or open-door garage, your distant neighbors will appreciate the aroma wafting through the air It is a far-carrying distinctive smell. Don’t advertise unless you’re prepared to share. Roasted beans should be consumed within a week for maximum freshness. I store my roasted beans in a vacuum packed mason jar kept on the counter top away from heat and light sources.
Grind only enough beans for the pot you are brewing. I have a Zyliss metal hand burr grinder that I use off grid which is easily cleaned with a natural bristle brush which absorbs the excess oil from the grinder and keeps it fresh. I also have a couple of older cast iron coffee grinders which were handed down to me from my European ancestors. These can be found occasionally in thrift stores or online auctions for cheap. Average 10 bucks. Burr grinders are touted as the best for bean grinding as they help keep the grind consistent and oil intact.

Use of chicory in coffee is intended at its best as an extender, in TEOTWAWKI conditions as a replacement. Chicory is an easily grown garden or border plant. It likes all kinds of weather conditions. It throws beautiful petite blue flowers that the bees and butterflies love in pollination. It’s prolific and can be used for medicinal purposes as well. It can be used for human food and animal fodder. The roots are used as the coffee extender or substitute. I pull the plant when mature saving the flowers seeds, hang the roots to dry or dehydrate them, then roast them, and grind them. I store the chicory in vacuum packed 1/4 pound bags. My personal favorite is a four cup French drip enamel pot, (the filter is an old white sock).
The blend is: 4 Tablespoons coffee grinds to 1 Tablespoon ground chicory for a nice smooth and kind to the palate cup. On long hauls on the road, I use a 12 volt [DC] auto plug-in coffee maker. When camping, I use an egg in my percolator (with an egg for my filter) and eat the poached egg!
All my grinds go into the composer for soil enrichment. The greens are fed to my dairy goats.
May this Christmas season nourish all our hearts and souls. A most respectful reader, – KBF

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thanks for David. L., who sent us a captivating PDF link: Prudent Bear’s PMs See Structured Finance Woes Leading To Recession

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Mike in Malaysia sent us this: Australians told to stockpile 10 weeks of food in preparation for Avian Flu,

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Reader D.J. noted that the Future Weapons cable television show had a segment on EMP that he found interesting. Here are the YouTube links: Part 1, and Part 2

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The Credit Crunch has become a Credit Collapse: MQC sent us this Daily Telegraph article: Call to relax Basel banking rules. MQC’s comment: “Banks can not, or will not lend. It matters not which, it is highly deflationary.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"If a man empties his purse into his head, no man can take it away from him. An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest." – Benjamin Franklin

Notes from JWR:

Congratulations to R.C. in Florida, the high bidder in the benefit auction that ended yesterday, for six items including a Katadyn Pocket water filter

Today we are starting a new auction. This one is for a scarce original 1980s-vintage Heckler und Koch 19mm Emergency Flare Launcher (EFL) aka “Notsignalgerät“ from my personal collection. It comes with three magazines and 28 scarce original German 19mm flares–10 red, 10 white, and 8 green. Together, this package is worth approximately $400. Note: Despite its fairly high muzzle velocity and the fact that it is magazine fed, this flare launcher in not classified as a “firearm” under Federal law. (Consult your state and local laws before bidding.) Sorry, no overseas bids will be accepted for this auction. This auction ends on January 15th. The opening bid is just $80. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.

Momentum seems to be growing for Ron Paul’s presidential campaign. Although he is considered a “Dark Horse” candidate, he has captivated quite a cross-section of voters including “hard money” advocates, Libertarians, Constitutionalists, gun rights advocates, pro-lifers, quasi-isolationists (both left and right wing), and home schoolers. After a recent record-breaking $4.38 million fundraising day, the latest plan is to raise $10 million in one day, on the anniversary of the Boston Tea Party. (Today is the day, Sunday, December 16th.)

Four Letters Re: Extended Care of the Chronically Ill in TEOTWAWKI

Jim,
One more suggestion (maybe it has been made already and I missed it) is that everybody should get up to date on their tetanus shots right now. If things get difficult, it would not be hard to imagine getting cut/puncture wounds in all sorts of ways, from all sorts of things in all sorts of circumstances. And these shots are good for 10 years, so you’re covered for a while. – Mike in Seattle

 

Jim,
Pfizer announced that they will no longer make Exubera, the inhaled insulin powder due to massive marketing failures. Its a good product but cost didn’t justify its marketing cost, and slow acceptance in the market. It does have a better shelf life than regular injectable insulin, i.e. no refrigerator needed. Those diabetics may want to grab up the existing supply to have at least a month of two available in a short term crunch to get by. What is out there is still available in the pipeline, but no further will be made, for now. I’m sure another company will reintroduce the idea some time in the future.
Here is a very interesting article that was produced by the military in 2002, titled “Antibiotics in tactical combat casualty care, 2002”. It discusses use of antibiotics in prophylaxis in trauma care. In 2002 they selected travofloxacin, unfortunately it was pulled from the market, but moxifloacin would make a good alternative. Brand name is Avelox. Bayer, the manufacturer, has free coupons for a 10 day supply available at your doctor’s office until the end of the year. – Mike MD in Missouri

 

Hi Jim –
I’m a new reader and excited I might be able to contribute to the discussion on your board. I work for a large health organization and in regards to dialysis and the need for renal failure patients to get dialysis, there is a new option.
One of the semi-new things going on is the evolution of “Dialysis at Home”. This is in-home dialysis treatment with smaller, table-top machines about the size of a large microwave. Some are totally portable i.e. can be rolled around in a special suitcase. It’s not exactly “new”. We’ve been training people to do it for over 30 years in our largest metropolitan Los Angeles hospital but it’s not really widespread among other organizations (I think). Many organizations are not able to spare the medical staff or don’t have the in-house expertise or don’t have the capital to develop this function or don’t have the buy-in of the medical staff or they just plain don’t know about it. It’s semi-cutting edge but I don’t think that should be a deterrent for someone wanting to drive toward this – it’s very straight forward to perform. Perhaps an investigation and switch in health insurance towards one that provides this benefit / equipment / training might be warranted for some SurvivalBlog readers with renal issues? I wouldn’t be surprised if this is more widespread. Bottom-line this is more cost-effective for a organization than using a contracted Frenius dialysis center or an in-network hospital and provides better patient outcomes. Dialysis performed more frequently for shorter intervals (i.e. 5x/week) more emulates the true function of the kidney than traditional prolonged 3x/week treatment. It’s win-win for everyone.

Here’s one company whose machines we are currently using to train our patients with. Anyway, in a nutshell, the person with renal failure (and their care-givers/helpers) get trained on this device and once physicians are sure patients can perform procedures safely, -i.e. self-insertion of the needle, operation of the machine, etc., they are sent home with their new machine. Getting ramped up is a lengthy process however; our training program is a four week program where patients are seen by nephrologists, nurses and pharmacists every step of the way so it’s not like you can just buy this machine, mothball it and ‘learn-it’ after the SHTF. Also, some minor re-work of the home’s plumbing is required to hookup most devices but nothing major; the most exciting thing is that the newest machines coming out can supposedly run on plain tap water but I don’t have experience with them.
I think anyone can see the survival utility in dialysis that is man-portable, uses tap-water, provides a better “quality of life”, and is user controlled.
Best Regards – Special K in Los Angeles

 

Dear Jim:
With reference to the letter from Simple Country Doctor, a good source of medical knowledge is The Hesperian Foundation, where several “must have” TEOTWAWKI books (“Where There Is No Doctor”, “Where There Is No Dentist”, “A Book For Midwives”) plus several other titles can be either be purchased or downloaded for free.
There is also a web site, mostly for medical professionals, that specializes in remote, austere, wilderness and third world medicine.

A good place for training is Chuck Fenwick’s Medical Corps.

My personal opinion (born out over the course of raising six children) is that 80% of family medicine can be practiced by paramedics and LVNs, 90% can be practiced by RNs and PAs, and the last 10% is where folks need an MD. This opinion will undoubtedly not sit well with “Simple Country Doctor”, but in a true TEOTWAWKI situation, folks are going to have to deal with what they’ve got.
I’ve always wondered about “First Aid Kits” that include instruction booklets. I have this macabre mental picture of someone bleeding out on the floor while the first aid provider frantically thumbs through the instruction book. I guess my point here is that it’s not enough to download the books. You have to read and re-read, and reread them, especially if you don’t have a professional medical background.
I hope this information is of some help to you. J.P., EMT-A

JWR Replies: I concur on your recommendation for taking training from Medical Corps. I have heard from a half dozen SurvivalBlog readers that have attended, and they all reported that the training was top notch, and that it brought them to a considerably higher plateau of training–even those that were already fully qualified as EMTs!

Three Letter Re: Fire Suppression and Firefighting at Retreats

Jim,
A few hours after I wrote the most recent Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update (Fri 12-14-07) I was awakened at 2 a.m. Friday morning with a page out to respond as a member of our local volunteer fire department to a fully involved structure fire with multiple occupants trapped. Like I stated in my update it takes us 15 to 30 minutes to arrive on scene as we respond from our homes to the station then on to the scene. As far as I can estimate there were emergency personnel on scene in about 14 minutes and we arrived at about 19 minutes from the initial page out, as the roads were icy and slippery. Obviously without going into details the outcome was devastating for the family, for us, and for the community as a whole. We have gone without a structure fire fatality for about 11 years according to local sources.

Remember, it’s not the actual flames that will kill you, it’s the poisonous smoke and fumes from the fire that will incapacitate you in seconds, stopping your escape and or rescue effort of your loved ones. I moved from a higher end subdivision in California where the city building code called for a water suppression system in every room with hard wired smoke alarms. Although I disagree with government mandates about building codes (none in our north Idaho county outside of city limits!) I did appreciate the system we had in that particular home. In closing, whether you’ll be building a retreat, buying a stock one or still living at your home in the perilous ‘burbs, spending the cash to install some kind of fire suppression system may seem nuts but the chance that you’ll be very thankful. Smoke detectors are worthless without a system to suppress the fire so that you can escape!

The bottom line is that having a fire suppression system in place, no matter the cost, would have saved one very precious child last night. Most of us concentrate on tactical gear, growing veggies and ammo purchases rather than taking the time to run the odds. Realistically speaking if you figure the odds of needing such a system versus needing your firearm in an actual defensive situation, I’d take my bets on the fire. – Todd Savage

 

James,
I am on the local Volunteer Fire Department here in the communist state of New Jersey. Instead of posting things that will compromise your OPSEC outside of your home. Find out when your local fire department has drills and go down and talk to the Chief or one of his officers. Invite them over for a walk through. They will most likely do this just because they are good people (we also appreciate a case or two of beer). Show them where your water supply is (if you have one on your property). They most likely know where the water supply is on the roads (Hydrants, Stand-pipes, Drafting sites). Show them where to shut off your gas and electric, because if your house is burning they need to shut it off. If you have ammunition stored please explain to them that it is in a certain part of the house so if it’s on fire nobody gets injured from rounds cooking off. What I have outlined seems a lot better in my mind than ruining OPSEC by posting things like that outside of your home. – TD

 

Mr. Rawles,
Having been through a few fires, I have the following suggestions: A sign or placard near the driveway with instructions to the firefighters has some merit. If you have a NO TRESPASSING sign, it should read something like this: “Absolutely NO Trespassing except for Emergency Personnel, Delivery Personnel, and Invited Guests. Others by appointment only. Call 555-5555.” This implies that the house is occupied, which is a good thing, and it acknowledges the possible need for Firefighters or Paramedics. The phone number is important so they can call you if your house is burning. Your instructions to firefighters should include the location of every fuel tank, propane tank, or any other volatile substance. This is very important to them for their own safety as well as their strategy in fighting the fire. If you have a large cache of ammunition, it could be a problem in a fire. I’ve never known anyone to get “shot” by loose ammo in a fire, but I’ve seen some real meltdowns. The intense heat just makes a bad situation even worse. I would suggest that however you store your ammo, make sure it’s totally fireproof. – K.L. in Alaska

JWR Replies: The risk posed by stored ammunition during a house fire is often exaggerated by the sensationalistic mass media. It does indeed “cook off”, sounding like firecrackers. But when ammunition that is not contained by a firearm chamber, the bullets don’t go anywhere. It is the cartridge cases that move, not the heavier lead bullets. Typically the brass will fly no more that 10 feet, and at fairly low velocity.