America’s Mountain of Debt: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Collectively, Americans have accumulated a mountain of public and private debt in the past 20 years. The essential nature of all debts is that they someday must be repaid. Debts can be broken down into three categories:

The Good. This is debt with low fixed interest rates, secured by tangible assets that have value that exceeds the amount of the loan. Everything is copasetic as long as the borrowers have a steady cash flow and can make their payments

The Bad. This is debt that is either insufficiently secured, or that has a nasty contractual surprise waiting, such as an adjustable interest rate reset date, or a balloon payment date.

The Ugly. This is the call loan. It can be called at any time, for any reason.

An interesting thing happens when an economy heads into a deep recession. Credit tightens, and assets begin to lose value. The quality of debt drops. Employees get laid off in large numbers and installment credit delinquencies and then defaults soar. In very rough terms the following plays out:

Good Debt starts to resemble Bad Debt,
Bad Debt starts to resemble Ugly Debt, and
Ugly Debt becomes Hideously Ugly Debt.

Hedge fund managers are in some ways like high states poker players. The risks are large, but so are their potential rewards. Well-managed hedge funds make gobs of money in good economic times, when there are stable–or at least trend-predictable–interest rates. They apply leverage, often as much as a 30-to-1 ratio, to make their profits. They make most of their money by borrowing short but lending long. Again, this works fine in good economic times with stable interest rates. But when interest rates fluctuate wildly, hedge funds can run into trouble. Periods with an inverted yield curve can be the most perilous.

The collapse of the subprime mortgage bubble signaled an end to a decade of debt-driven good times. Almost overnight, liquidity dried up.

Now we are entering some very scary times. Bankers are getting margin calls. The only way that they can meet those call demands is to call in loans that they have made. So, at present, the bankers are making margin calls of their own: They are calling their loans made to hedge funds (among other borrowers). This is putting many hedge funds in an impossible situation. Many hedge funds will collapse.

There is an old saying on Wall Street: “A one million dollar debt keeps the borrower up at night, worrying. But a one hundred million dollar debt keeps the lender up at night, worrying.”

Exceptional times like these will result in some huge write-downs and write-offs. The only good news is that many assets will lose a lot of value. Everything from vintage cars to vintage wines, to grand estates will drop precipitously in price. Desperate for cash, the holders of those assets will be offering them at fire sale prices at the bottom of the market. If you are one of the few people with extra cash in your pocket, you will be able to pick up some tremendous bargains. (OBTW, the firm J.P. Morgan just did exactly that. They just inked a deal to buy troubled Bear Stearns for 2 cents on the dollar from its value of just one week ago.)

Letter Re: Galloping Bulk Food Prices

James,
Just a quick report on what I’ve learned about buying bulk grains and beans.
We have a local bulk food depot. I called to place an order. The guy checked with his wholesaler for prices, then called me back. He was aghast. He said everything was up around 25% since he had placed his last order two weeks ago. And up about 100% since the first of the year. The reason, the wholesaler reported, was demand from folks stocking up. The wholesaler was sold out of many items. Then I called an Amish bulk food store about an hour and a half away. Same story. (Yeah, I wondered about the Amish answering a telephone, too. Apparently the rules are flexible.)
Well, finding the prices a bit high, even for 50-pound bags (like 61 cents a pound for red wheat, 93 cents a pound for black beans, 53 cents a pound for white rice), I decided to check out the local “budget” supermarkets. Surprise, surprise. They were less expensive. Sometimes by a lot. For example, Sav-A-Lot had black beans for 70 cents a pound. ALDI had long grain white rice for 39 cents a pound. A further surprise, even Kroger’s beat the bulk food prices. Of course, these things may change when the supermarket’s wholesalers have to replace their stocks.
I’ sure things vary from region to region, even city to city. But, as always, caveat emptor. One shouldn’t assume that sources that should be cheaper actually are. And prices are unlikely to be any cheaper in our lifetimes than they are this afternoon. Best wishes, – Dr. Jack

Letter Re: Surplus Ambulances as BOVs

Mr. Rawles
I am a long time lurker on your site and would first like to thank you for all you do. I learn much from your site and finally read a topic I have some knowledge of. I operate a large ambulance service (75 units) and read the article about using ambulances as BOVs. I thought I might make a few observations.

It is true that the truck type ambulance have factory 4WD. However the majority of van type units have good aftermarket conversions. Most are done by Quimby. In fact I would only purchase a van type 4×4 from them. One down side to the truck type unit is that rescue squads are notorious for building a unit well above GVW. This causes all sorts of brake and suspension problems in the long term.

As for durability you may be surprised but the van type units have a longer service life as well as a lower cost of operation. They are usually lighter and have far more payload than the truck type. One big concern of a truck type ambulance is that the module is designed for remount. Now from a factory they are built well but at remount time all bets are off. They can truly be done by a shade tree mechanic and the electrical problems can be a nightmare. The van units will almost always come with the factory wiring and since they are all one unit the cabinets and structure seem to hold up better.

Excluding 4WD units, if I was getting one as a BOV, I would consider a van type Ford E350 built between 1990 and 1994 with the non-direct inject, non turbo engine. These units can easily go 400,000 plus miles. Consider keeping [one or more] glow plugs, a fuel pump, an extra set of injectors, and a crank position sensor as spare parts. These units are small, durable and easy-to-maneuver vehicles that handle well get acceptable mileage and are easy to obtain parts for.

One other thing to consider. How to paint the unit. In a true pre-TEOTWAWKI Get Out of Dodge situation having a vehicle that can appear similar to an emergency vehicle may not be a bad thing. With a van unit you could even have a magnetic sign with some sort of logo that could be added and removed at will. I can tell you an ambulance is rarely stopped or harassed. It is not unusual for them to go long distances and both LEOs and the public see out-of-area units all the time so it does not arouse a lot of suspicion. Of course you would have to check state and local laws.

Hope this gives some insight into ambulances. It is true they can often be found at low prices with low mileage and could make a great BOV, if selected carefully. – RB

Debate on Pending Legislation Reveals the Depth of Debasement of Our Currency and Coinage

The US House of Representatives is currently debating HR 5512, (the “Coin Modernization and Taxpayer Savings Act of 2008”) legislation that would further debase our coinage. According to a article in The Chicago Tribune titled Change for a Penny?, pennies will soon be made of steel instead of zinc. Although the bill leaves it up to the Treasury, presumably, five cent pieces would be made of zinc instead of their current alloy of copper and nickel. I’ve warned SurvivalBlog readers that this was coming, and that they should start saving nickels. Coincidentally, reader RBS sent us a link to an article about how Zimbabwe’s corrupt government is introducing a new 10 Million dollar bill. In Zimbabwe, all coins have long since been removed from circulation. The following is an excerpt of Congressman Ron Paul’s statement on this bill, speaking before the Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology. on March 11, 2008:

“Mr. Chairman, I oppose HR 5512 because it is unconstitutional to delegate the determination of the metal content of our coinage to the Secretary of the Treasury. Under Article I Section 8 of the Constitution, the Congress is given the power to coin money and regulate the value thereof. It is a shame that Congress has already unconstitutionally delegated its coinage authority to the Treasury Department, but that is no reason to further delegate our power and essentially abdicate Congressional oversight as the passing of HR 5512 would do.

Oversight by members of Congress, who have an incentive to listen to their constituents,ensures openness and transparency. This bill would eliminate that process and delegate it to unelected bureaucrats. The Secretary of the Treasury would be given sole discretion to alter the metal content of coins, or even to create non-metal coins. Given the history of Congressional delegation and subsequent lax oversight on issues as important as the conflict in Iraq, it would be naive to believe that Congress would exercise any more oversight over an issue as unimportant to most members as the composition of coins.

While I sympathize with the aim of Section 4 of this bill to save taxpayer dollars by minting steel pennies, it is disappointing that our currency has been so greatly devalued as to make this step necessary. At the time of the penny’s introduction, it actually had some purchasing power. Based on the price of gold, what one penny would have purchased in 1909requires 47 cents today. It is no wonder then that few people nowadays would stoop to pick up any coin smaller than a quarter.

Congress’ unconstitutional delegation of monetary policy to the Federal Reserve and its reluctance to exercise oversight in that arena have led to a massive devaluation of the dollar. If we fail to end this devaluation, we will undoubtedly hold future hearings as the metal value of our coins continues to outstrip the face value.

HR5512 is a sad commentary on how far we have fallen, not just since the days of the Founders, but only in the last 75 to 100 years. We could not maintain the gold standard nor the silver standard. We could not maintain the copper standard, and now we cannot even maintain the zinc standard. Paper money inevitably breeds inflation and destroys the value of the currency. That is the reason that this proposal is before us today.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"We are now experiencing the first truly major crisis of financial globalization. Never before have banks seen such destruction of their balance sheets in such a short time. Moreover, there are signs that the problems are spreading. The risk premiums on commercial property, consumer credit and corporate loans have risen sharply." – Swiss central bank governor Philipp Hildebrand, quoted March 12, 2008

Note from JWR:

Congrats to Stephen H., the high bidder in our recent SurvivalBlog benefit auction. Today we are starting a new auction. This one is for three radios: MURS Alert Base station, a MURS Alert Hand-held transceiver, and a Kaito KA-1102 AM/FM/Shortwave. These radios were kindly donated by the owner of Affordable Shortwaves and MURS Radios. If you aren’t familiar with the Dakota Alert infrared perimeter security system, take a few minute to look at the Dakota Alert web site. These alarms are very reliable and versatile. I often recommend them to my consulting clients–especially those that plan to have lightly-manned retreats. You can easily set up multiple detector/transmitter sensors to provide 360 degree perimeter security for a large area. Instead of just a generic alarm, they will let you know which sensor was tripped, via a computer-generated voice message to a radio that you can carry on your belt. (Such as “Alert, Zone Two.”) The same radio can be used for point-to-point voice communications, on the little-used MURS band. The three radios have a retail value of $210. The opening bid for the combined lot of three radios is just $50. The auction ends on April 15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.

The Ides of March–The Dreaded Margin Calls Have Begun at Banks and Hedge Funds

This week the news wires were abuzz about the Bear Stearns bailout. It all started with a margin call.

An investment banking insider tipped me that there will be perhaps as many as five more “margin calls that can’t be answered” next week. Three names mentioned as possibly getting the dreaded call are Goldman Sachs on Tuesday and both Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers on Wednesday–on the same day that each reports their first quarter earnings. The word on the street is that all three may need to be bailed out, to varying degrees. Who is standing in the wings to bail some of them out? Credit Suisse and some other big European banks. At the end of next week there may be even more unanswerable margin call news, for US Bank and Washington Mutual. Oh yes, and rumor also has it that Wells Fargo sold some its tangible assets–including some that date back to the 1850s–in order to meet its margin call on Friday.

To meet these margin calls, most of the troubled banks will in turn be making margin calls of their own, to their hedge fund buddies.This, I believe, will cause dozens of hedge funds to go belly up, since most hedge funds have already been under redemption pressure from individual investors. Many hedge funds are using high leverage with their trading portfolios. This makes them unlikely to be able to meet their margin calls. The end result? Look at least for suspension redemption notices from a good portion of American and European hedge funds, and possibly bankruptcy announcements, soon after. A lot of investors are going to lose every penny.

And if all of the preceding weren’t bad enough, think about one other big piece of fallout: Derivatives. There are hundreds of billions of dollars of over the counter Credit Default Swaps (CDSes) in play, folks. Many of the banks and hedge funds are party to these CDSes. If a an institution goes belly up, then the full value of the CDS contracts on their books must be covered! Remember what I wrote a couple of months ago about Bank of America (BofA) bailing out Countrywide Financial? They didn’t do so because they were nice guys, or even because it was a “good investment.” They did so because that by acquiring Countrywide, they in effect became both party and counterparty to several large CDS derivatives. So magically, Poof! The derivative exposure disappeared. BofA simply “did the math” and realized that it would be less expensive to simply buy out Countrywide and zero out those derivatives, rather than having to fulfill them. Based on this recent experience, I predict that there will be dozens of mergers and acquisitions that come out of this banking and hedge fund crisis. We might even read of some acquisitions that will get us scratching our heads. Why would a major pension fund, an insurance company, or a money center bank buy a controlling interest in a hedge fund or an boutique bank? Watch for such oddities in the headlines in the months to come. You’ll know why…

You may ask, “What does all this high finance news mean to me? I don’t have any money in hedge funds or investment banks.” This bad news means that not only will there likely soon be some big bank runs, but also there will be The Mother of All Bailouts, in which the US taxpayers will foot the bill to bail out boutique investing banks, possibly a few big money center banks, and dozens of hedge funds. We are talking about hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars that don’t exist. Read: monetization. So get ready for mass inflation of the US Dollar!

OBTW, I think Ben Bernanke needs to record a new greeting for his telephone voice mail [Insert imitated voice of the late actor John Houseman]: “Ben Bernanke isn’t here. He’s out making money the old fashioned way. He’s printing it!“

Letter Re: Wait and Buy Farm Ground Near the Bottom of the Market

James,
I wanted to address some of the discussion about buying [farm] ground. I know the situation may be different in the West since the flood of Californians may never result in lower prices than are currently available. But the following is my view of the current situation in the Midwest . Keep in mind that farmland has rarely acted in the same way as housing prices have. For one there is not the mass subsidization of farm land purchasing like housing. (think GI loans, first time buyers loans, Freddie Mac and Sallie Mae, etc)

The perils and pitfalls of land ownership is completely subjective depending on your region of the country and a host of other site or region specific issues. For instance, in the Midwest , good cropland away from metropolitan areas was selling for $2,000-$2,500 an acre in 2001 and 2002. It is now regularly being priced in the $6,000 area (it has roughly doubled) and between 10,000-$50,000 and acre the closer you get to a big city. It seems it has become fashionable for investors in New York and Los Angeles to buy cropland and take advantage of the ethanol boondoggle or the high crop prices. Even trash land that was good for nothing but hunting has soared upwards of $3,000 an acre (you couldn’t give it away for $300 an acre 15 years ago. It seems that everyone is trying to buy hunting ground to go into business as an outfitter or hunt deer. Many of these people live half way across the country (Mississippi, Colorado, Alaska , Pennsylvania, et cetera). It doesn’t help that every hunting magazine encourages this in the pitiful quest to shoot trophy deer (who got that way by eating corn and soybeans off of productive farmland all their life).

On its face you would think that the cost of land would do nothing but go up in price. I happen to remember the same thing around here during the 1970s and 1980s before the price of land collapsed. The commodities bull market of the 1970s encouraged every farmer and speculator to run out and purchase land. The run up started around $500 an acre to a top of around $4000-5000. Then the crop prices collapsed and farm land could be bought for $1,000-to-$1,500 an acre in the mid 1980s. If the current scenario turns out to be a similar multi-decade commodities boom that later collapses as the prices get ahead of themselves, the same scenario may present itself.

The nature of our semi-capitalist system tells us that there will be booms and busts in every market or sector. For many people it may make more sense to purchase a smaller piece of property first for a retreat and plan on buying more later when the inevitable collapse/stall in price happens. You may come across a once in a lifetime deal that throws this whole idea out the window. Many younger people feel like they have to go into debt and struggle to get all they need to “survive”. Your turn will come and at some point when you are more financially secure you may be able to buy a piece of property at a more reasonable price. Many of the people buying now are not even remotely attached to the land/locale and their interest will wane over time. Others will find their debt load too much to handle. At some point they might beg you take farm ground off their hands at a 50% loss to themselves. I know that at least two plots of my in-laws farms where purchased during the Great Depression. Put yourself in the position of having ready cash to buy ground when no one else does. – A.T.

JWR Replies: I agree wholeheartedly with your observations. Please note that I specifically wrote about patience, buying at the bottom, and watching foreclosure listings. That is where folks will find those "50 cents on the dollar" bargain retreat properties.

Letter Re: Recommendation for the Novel “Full Faith and Credit”

Mr. Rawles,
As I watch the meltdown of the Carlyle Fund, of Bear Stearns, and of the credit and derivative markets in general, I am constantly surprised at the the parallels of what I watch happening (via CNBC) with what happens in the novel, “Full Faith and Credit: A Novel About Financial Collapse”, by James R. Cook. [In his novel] huge hedge funds fail, and because they have huge counter-party exposure, the government has no choice but to bail them out. The government pumps money into the markets, causing commensurate inflation. And, as we are seeing in reality, the public gradually recognizes that precious metals are the only safe store of value and purchasing power.

In Cook’s novel, the calamity is initiated by rapid slide in the stock market. In our reality, it is the credit and derivative markets are failing, catalyzed by the failing real estate markets that are causing the recent problems. The book does not take the scenario into such a complete grid-down environment as in your book, and foreign currencies and precious metals are the antidote in “Full Faith and Credit” where bullets and beans are the means of survival in your novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” I’ve read both books, and taken from each in preparing myself and my family for the future.

In this mess we are in, may the innocents (John Q. Public) be blessed and protected, and may the greedy, amoral thieves of Wall Street that have profited so handsomely from these financial shenanigans pay for their moral hubris — very publicly. – Tango in Utah

Odds ‘n Sods:

Chester noted that Gold-Eagle posted some commentary from Chris Laird that nicely sums up the global economic crisis: Gold Says that Central Banks Fail to Stop World Deleveraging

   o o o

Bear Stearns exposed as a bank saddled with toxic sub-prime debt

   o o o

What went wrong? The story straight from the Plunge Protection Team

   o o o

Reader “RS” purchased the “Survive Martial Law” e-book, available for download for just under $20. The author, Harold Williams, claims to be prior service “Special Forces” in Vietnam, but both his writing style and some key details quickly show that his “combat experience” is an utter fabrication. Most of this slim 44 page “book” is just a re-hash of material that has been floating around since the early 1970s. RS recommends: “Don’t waste your time or money.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“We’ve got a blind date with Destiny — and it looks like she’s ordered the lobster.” – William H. Macy, as “The Shoveler” in Mystery Men, 1999 (Screenplay by Neal Cuthbert.)

Note from JWR:

The current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction ends at midnight tonight (Saturday, March 15th), eastern time. The high bid is now at $220. The auction is for a combined lot of five items: a 120 VAC/12 VDC BedFan Personal Cooling System (a $99 retail value), kindly donated by the manufacturer, a Thieves Oil Start Living Kit (a $161 retail value), the book “Healing Oils of the Bible“ by David Stewart, Phd. (a $19 retail value) the book “When Technology Fails“, by Matthew Stein (a $29 retail value)–all donated by Ready Made Resources, and a copy of the latest edition of “The Encyclopedia of Country Living” by the late Carla Emery (a $32 retail value). The auction ends on March 15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.

Credit Collapse: The Depression Countdown Begins

SurvivalBlog includes plenty of gloom and doom, but I do my best to not be a ranting and raving alarmist. The recent torrential flood of bad economic news, however, has led me to now urge greater preparedness. Don’t quit your job and head for the hills yet, but by all means redouble your efforts to get ready. In my estimation, we are now on a short countdown to economic depression. Back in early 2006, I first warned about derivatives trading. Since June of 2007, I have been warning about the larger implications of CDOs. In January of 2008, I pointed the finger of blame at exotic debt repackaging instruments that are “marked to mystery” and causing the credit market to collapse. Now, these manifold dangers are apparent even the mainstream media. New bank accounting rules go into effect on March 31st, so the Fed is pumping liquidity frantically. This will likely exacerbate the problem. Please take the time to read the two following linked articles about the ongoing collapse of the global credit market:

1. Meltdown Looms Larger as Credit Markets Freeze. Here is a key quote: “As for Bernanke’s Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) it is intentionally designed to circumvent the Fed’s mandate to only take top-grade collateral in exchange for loans. No one believes that these triple A mortgage-backed securities are worth more than $.70 on the dollar. In fact, according to a report in Bloomberg News yesterday: “AAA debt fell as low as 61 cents on the dollar after record home foreclosures and a decline to AA may push the value of the debt to 26 cents, according to Credit Suisse Group.”

2. IMF tells states to plan for the worst.

Clearly, the global credit collapse is getting much worse, but ominously, it is also now clear that the collapse is just in its early stages. I now have a high level of confidence that the credit collapse will trigger a global economic depression that may be as bad, if not worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. At this point, it seems almost inevitable. The Federal Reserve lowering interest rates will not prevent it. At best, this will forestall it by a few months. To borrow an old Wall Street aphorism, Ben Bernanke is “pushing on string.” Without financing, the global economic machine is grinding to a halt. Helicopter Ben and his cronies can’t re-start it until after a lot of bad debt has worked its way through the system.

If you’ve been reading SurvivalBlog for several months, then you know what you need to do. And if you have been hesitating, then I strongly suggest that you get busy immediately: and actively prepare. Get the food and other key logistics, get the training, team up with like-minded friends and relatives, and if possible, buy and fully stock a retreat in a lightly-populated region. Get OUT of your dollar-denominated investments and re-invest in practical tangibles that you can barter. Companies with derivatives exposure and hedge funds will be the first to go, followed soon after by a stock market crash. Eventually, even erstwhile “safe” municipal bonds will be wiped out.

In the short term, please follow my advice on preparation for surviving bank runs. The recently-announced bailout of Bear Stearns is indicative of how quickly a bank’s fortunes can turn. Here is a key quote from a recent Financial Times article on the Bear Stearns bailout: “One problem with the credit crunch is that banks’ solvency positions can change overnight. As banks force fire sales of assets to recover their loans from hedge funds, the prices of those assets fall. But as the prices fall, the amount of capital that the banks need rises. Lena Komileva, a Tullett Prebon economist, said: ‘This is what is fueling the vicious cycle. Things can deteriorate very rapidly and banks can reach insolvency almost overnight.'” In my estimation, bank runs are now imminent.

Am I being an alarmist? I don’t think so. Just look at the US Dollar Index and the spot price of gold. Pray hard, folks. There’s a storm coming.

Letter Re: Battle Rifle Recommendations for a Californian

Mr. Rawles,
I am a resident of the People’s Republic of Kalifornia (PRK). I’m looking to buy a main battle rifle (MBR). My rifle collection currently consists of a few .22 rimfires and a [Federally exempt antique Model] 1893 Mauser, which I purchased on your recommendation from The Pre-1899 Specialist. It seems as though most of the [firearms design] features one would look for are restricted (if not outright banned) here [in California]. My question for you is, what would you suggest for a California resident’s MBR?. Thanks, – C3 in CA.

JWR Replies: California does have some almost unbearable “assault weapons” restrictions. OBTW, I’m fond of saying that the only “assault” going on is against our Constitutional rights.

Unless you plan to move out of the state soon, I’d recommend that you buy one or two FN49 rifles. This was a very robust post-WWII semi-auto rifle design. Most FN49s have fixed 10 round magazines that are filled from the top, via stripper clips. The ideal choice would be the detachable magazine Argentine Navy variant chambered in 7.62mm NATO. These are presently around $1,200 each. But if you are on a budget, FN49s were also made in several other calibers including .30-06, 7.65mm Argentine Mauser, 7x57mm Mauser, and 8x57mm Mauser. The latter were made for an Egyptian contract are the least expensive variants. These can sometimes be found for around $750. An 8mm Mauser, would of course also give you cartridge commonality with your Turkish contract pre-1899 antique Mauser. Regardless of what you buy, be sure to inspect the bore and chamber condition carefully before purchasing a military surplus rifle. Many of the Mauser cartridges and most of the older lots of .30-06 were made with corrosive priming, which causes bore pitting.

OBTW, up until a couple of years ago, I would have first recommended getting an M1 Garand rifle. Unfortunately, they have recently become quite collectible and prices have jumped up to the $1,000 to $1,500 price range. Spare parts have also become quite expensive. My advice to Californians: If you can find an M1 Garand with a nice bore for under $900, jump on it!