Note from JWR:

The high bid is still at $260 in the current SurvivalBlog benefit auction, This one is for a big batch of 16 survival/preparedness reference books, courtesy of the fine folks at Ready Made Resources. (They are one of our first and most loyal advertisers. Be sure to visit their site and check out their huge inventory of preparedness-related products. BTW, they have additional copies of each of the titles listed below, as well as more than a hundred other titles.)



Letter Re: Minimum Safe Distance From The Big City for Retreat Locales?

Dear Jim:
Re your recommendation that a retreat for TEOTWAWKI needs to be “at least one tank of gas away from the big cities–preferably at least 300 miles, if possible” to escape at least the worst of roving looter gangs. I agree 100% — I see getting out of the [path of the] flow of looters as the # 1 problem. Just like real estate – LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. You can store food, and learn how to grow food in time (or barter stored wealth) but no matter how good you are, sooner or later you’ll take casualties if you are in the [path of the] “looter flow.”
The question I am wrestling with, is — if you can’t move full time to your retreat, what is the minimum distance you can afford to be from a major metro area, say 1 million people?
Obviously the further away the better for safety — but you also want to be as close as possible as well:
You want to be close enough that you could get to it bugging out on foot, in a worst case scenario.
You want to be close enough to be able to commute there regularly to upgrade, do maintenance, check on your property, etc., etc. … (It would be heartbreaking to find your remote retreat burglarized after bugging out, because you hadn’t been there in months.)
You want to be close enough to be able to talk your spouse into bugging out of the city when the situation looks like it could go bad, but there is no clear go decision.
The closer it is, the easier it is to talk your spouse into the value as a weekend home as well as for survival.
It’s a very tough tradeoff decision.
Obviously you can come in closer, less un-safely, if your retreat is in a very inaccessible and/or hidden spot, e.g., dead end road, hilly, wooded terrain, not visible from the road, and not within hiking distance of nearby roads. Inaccessibility is probably more important than straight mileage. For example, 300 miles out of Dodge, but just one mile off the Interstate Highway is still useless.
You could even get creative with building below grade, camouflage, etc., etc. to be even lower profile. Also if you have a well trained team with sufficient numbers, and your perimeter security is very tight, you might want to chance being closer.
What else could you do to lower the distance needed? Bottom line – how close is no good, vs. how close is a reasonable tradeoff? Yours truly, – OSOM

JWR Replies: As I’ve written many times before, it is best to live at your intended retreat, year round. I realize that this isn’t feasible for everyone. If you can’t live there, at least pre-position the vast majority of your beans, bullets and Band-aids. Have a trusted friend be your full time caretaker. Be prepared to “Get Out Of Dodge” on very short notice. And if things start to look dicey, do not hesitate to bug out and beat “The Golden Horde” out of town.

One thing that you could do to to reduce the distance required is to studiously avoid natural lines of drift. (Such as major highways, river valleys, railroad tracks, and coastal liitorals.) There are potential retreat locales perhaps just 75 miles from major cities that might be bypassed because they are on disadvantageous terrain. (Think in terms of hilly country with just a few small access roads, islands, properties that are on the far side of natural obstacles such as rivers, or that are in large river delta regions.) Take a few weekend drives in the rural areas near where you live. Do some careful map study and then do some driving to meticulously search for the hard-to-access areas. By concentrating on such bypassed areas, you will be off the path of more than 90% of potential looters. But even still, anywhere less than 200 miles from major metropolitan areas will be a gamble, in my estimation. I don’t want to take that sort of risk, so the Rawles Ranch is more than 400 miles from the nearest metropolitan an area with more than 1,000,000 people, and 130 miles from the nearest city of 200,000. It is also in a carefully selected area that is both away from refugee lines of drift and that is not downwind of any expected nuclear targets. Yes, it is a long drive for us to go and visit relatives or even just to shop for a truck or for a major appliance. But the good news is that it is so beautiful here that nearly all of our relatives all want to do the driving to come and visit us. See my newly-released book Rawles on Retreat and Relocation for details on retreat locale selection and envisioned nuclear target structures. In the book, I provide detailed recommendations on specific locales within those 19 states. The book includes my top picks in Idaho (my mostly highly rated state for retreat potential) that have never been posted or published elsewhere.



Letter Re: Is Radio Direction Finding a Potential Threat for Survivalists?

Mr. Rawles:
Hey, I was just wondering what everyone with radios is planning in order to conceal the location of their transmissions from people who could potentially use the signal as a beacon to guide them right to your antenna. It might be fairly difficult to build a tracker, but I suspect there are pre-made devices to direction-find a fairly strong signal (e.g. ham radio). Thanks, – James D.

JWR Replies: The only people that have effective radio direction finding (“DF“) equipment and the requisite expertise to operate it are A.) The NSA and a few other government agencies such as the FCC–mainly for tracking down unlicensed pirate stations, and B.) ham radio operators themselves, who practice playing “fox and hound”. (Here is a sample of a site dedicated to the latter –quite a sport.) Hams tend to be very law-abiding folks. I can’t imagine many of them going renegade and turning into looters. However, I can foresee many looter gangs showing rudimentary SIGINT skills and using portable public service band (“police”) scanners. So it is wise to use low power and directional antennas. Never mention surnames, locations, lat/long, map coordinates, or street addresses “in the clear.” In my estimation, it is not likely that looter gangs would be sufficiently sophisticated to use DF gear. But never take anything for granted. It is conceivable that someone that worked in the SIGINT community could sell their services to a large looter gang, in a “slow slide situation. Be prudent and take the proper COMSEC measures. If and when the Schumer hits the fan, you should construct your own brevity codes and change your call signs and frequencies frequently. Oh, by the way, I describe radio intercept, radio direction finding, and COMSEC in considerable detail in some of the closing chapters of my novel “Patriots” , which recently went back into print. Among others, one of the methods that I describe in the novel is bouncing signals from a directional antenna off of large metal structures such as large barns or grain silos, to confuse DF operators. I also discuss HF transmissions, which have near vertical incidence when propagating in long distance skywave mode. It takes very sophisticated equipment to DF those signals. (As opposed to short distance groundwave HF signals, that can easily be DFed.)

One further note: We now live in the age of Bluetooth. If and when TSHTF, if you have a wireless network for your home computers, you should plan to turn the transmitter off and use it as a strictly “hard wire” Ethernet device. A clever looter might leave a laptop turned on in his vehicle, sensing when the vehicle passes an active wireless network. (Even if you keep blackout shutters up–making your house look like all of your neighbors that are without power–an active wireless network could mark your house as a lucrative target.) Ditto for cell phones and cordless telephones. Assuming that the phone circuits are still working during a period of lawlessness (not likely, but possible), be sure to switch to “land line only” for the duration.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Dr. Geri Guidetti of The Ark Institute mentioned that she still has a good inventory of her book "Surviving A Bioterrorist Attack: Prevention, Treatment and Management." I highly recommend that you get a copy. It could be a life-saving resource!

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Denver digs out from an early winter storm. Governor Bill Owens is advising motorists to stay off of the state highways. Meanwhile, Christmas travelers are stranded at the Denver airport.

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Reader B.H. sent this one: Report Reveals 2.2 Million Borrowers Face Foreclosure on Subprime Home Loans. It looks like and ugly end to the U.S. bi-coastal housing bubble.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“So that this nation may long endure, I urge you to follow in the hallowed footsteps of the great disobediences of history that freed exiles, founded religions, defeated tyrants, and yes, in the hands of an aroused rabble in arms and a few great men, by God’s grace, built this country.” – Charlton Heston



Notes From JWR:

To borrow the modern parlance: “Woo Hoo!” We just topped 900,000 unique visits and 42.1 million page hits! Many thanks, folks. Our readership is still growing steadily. Please continue to spread the word about SurvivalBlog. I would greatly appreciate it if you’d consider adding a SurvivalBlog link to your web page and/or to the bottom of your mail “sig” block. Thanks!

Today we present another article for Round 8 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $1,600.) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. If there are a lot of great entries this round of the contest, I will again be sending out a few complimentary copies of my novel “Patriots” as “honorable mention” awards. If you want a chance to win the contest, start writing and e-mail us your article. Round 8 will end on January 31st. Remember that the articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.



Pre-Crisis Survival Skills, by D.A.L.

Pre-crisis survival skills: The only tool more valuable than knowledge is an attitude of self sufficiency. The mere willingness to provide for your own needs can pay off everyday, even absent any “end of the world as we know it” event. In fact, simply being willing to provide for your own needs can pave the way for not only learning valuable skills, but saving money to boot!
By way of example let me tell you about a recent experience with the steam heating system at my lady friend’s house. It is a Victorian house and the main boiler furnace was replaced five years ago as it was in poor condition and needed a new boiler. This is a single pipe steam system not a closed hot water system so it needs regular water replenishing. The other thing of note is her water is very hard locally with lots of dissolved minerals.
So the story begins with the first cold afternoon of the season. The thermostat had been turned on and the pilot light was working that morning so she figured when she got home everything would be toasty warm. Well she got home and had no heat, and so called the heating man to come and see what was wrong. He came and checked over the system and got it going. He said it was a plugged flue so he cleaned that and put in a new low water sensor lead which appeared corroded and leaves her with a $100 bill, an hour later. To me this says the burner is carbonizing and not burning cleanly for a gas fired boiler. No other future recommendations besides call them if there are any other further issues. Okay, I didn’t have to do anything so no real complaints.
A week later no heat and again she calls, a second service tech is there and 60 minutes later she has heat and another $100 bill. This time it is a low water condition and he fills the boiler manually but couldn’t read the level in the site glass so just filled it till it started running again, but he says everything is okay for now and maybe you will have to replace the lower water controller at a future time.
I finally say enough I am going to take look at it. So a quick search on the web on boilers and a basic plumbing book I had on the shelf that I got at a garage sale the year before for a dollar and I now have some basic information for trouble shooting, then I go down to start with a survey.
The first thing I see is the main drain valve installed by this same company five years ago on the new boiler, has the valve handle removed so it can sit right up tight next to the water heater that stands beside the boiler. Funny after 100 years the boiler no longer needs periodic draining to remove scale even though the owner has been systematically doing it for 15 years per the previous recommended service people. So the tech has had to use a pair of vise grips to open the value to drain the boiler to test the low water sensor. Not that this 2nd tech would consider replacing the valve and putting in an elbow to turn the valve away from the hot water heater so a proper draining could be done in the future, and maybe he should consider cleaning the sight glass which was so coated with crud inside you couldn’t see the water level properly anyway.
I having been a maintenance engineer for two years so I said "Okay lets fix this baby."
So I spent $9 for a new elbow and valve, and had at hand some Teflon pipe dope and assortment of wrenches, a proper work light and bucket to sit on to take the weight off my knees as this might take a while and I can only squat for so long and I was ready to start.
Now I see why the tech took so long to trouble shoot the boiler issues. They had to drain the boiler into a bucket, one bucket at a time to get out the 40 odd gallons in the systems at $85 dollars an hour, nice work if you can get it, emptying boilers manually, gee isn’t this the 21st century, wow maybe I am in the wrong business, anyway so I get a bucket and put in an electric sump pump I have to hand and hook up the garden hose and then by draining the cooled boiler water directly into the bucket continuously and running the sump pump I put the water out through the hose and I drained the system in fewer than 5 minutes. Wow maybe I should be giving the certified plumbers a lesson in efficiency.
First improvement: Bucket, pump, hose for draining and testing.
Then when the water was emptied, I had my lady friend move the water heater a 1⁄4 inch with a 8 foot long 2 x 4 so I could remove the old drain valve and put in the new elbow and a new drain valve, I guided her effort as we just had to move it a little and even though it was also full of water, it was a 40 gallon tank, she was able to move it just enough to not disturb the connecting piping or vent. Now I had enough room to hacksaw off the stem of the bad drain valve, so I could unscrew it to install the new 90 degree elbow and put in the brand new drain valve after doping all the threads with Teflon pipe dope.
Second improvement: better clearance, new elbow, new valve for speedier draining.
Now that we could drain the boiler properly and efficiently, you should have seen all the crud that still came out after the second filling and draining to test out the new drain valve. Now that I could drain and fill the system, the question of course was how high was the water level to be, too low and the low water sensor tries to turn on the auto fill valve, too high and you get water hammer in the pipes as the steam tries to force it’s way up an overly full pipe and surges. So the next thing was, let’s see if we can clean the sight glass and get a handle on water level since there doesn’t seem to have been any issues with either electricity or gas to the furnace at this point.
So with the sight glass cleaned up we can now visually monitor the water level in the boiler… a little gentle wrenching and some silicone spray on the seals after working them loose to make it easy to reassemble. Then using a small rod with some fiberglass insulation wrapped around it and I was able to clean the tube almost as clean as new, a kind of home made test tube cleaner, the fiber glass wouldn’t scratch the sight tube as it was also made of glass, but it was abrasive enough without leaving any residue, to scrape the brown built up baked on sludge off the inside of the tube.
The two shut off sight valves stems were badly corroded and leaking past their packing, so it was time to gently take them both apart and lightly emery cloth around the stem to create a new sealing surface, and then I dug out the baked packing inside the cap nuts with a nice dull straight bit screw driver. The material which looked like window glazing compound was all dried out and so it was useless to try and tighten the nuts to try to get them to clamp down on the packing to create some sealing. After removing all the old packing I did a little wipe down with some silicon spay of the cap nuts with a clean rag and then I gently reassembled them with some new Teflon packing wrapped around the stems and I put a little Teflon bicycle bearing grease on the stem threads and the cap threads. They went back together as smooth as if they were new.
After refilling the systems there were no leaks anywhere and the new drain valve works smoothly and allowed for proper service draining and I can now see the water level is correct and we have heat.
Third improvement, emery clothe, grease, silicon spray, and Teflon packing.
I had my son working with me, watching what was going on so he was involved. I was asking him as I worked what is wrong with this before starting the emery on the valve stems, then showed him the final product after five minutes work and mentioned you could use old sand paper that had lost most of it’s grit or even a pocket knife in a pinch, that there are lots of different ways to fix things, we could have even used the bench lathe at home and burnished the valve stems if we wanted a superior sealing surface, and I talked to my son of the process of discovery, and of what to look for, as all things have a story to tell of misuse or poor maintenance if one only looks close enough. I did this as I was cleaning things so he could learn as I was learning how things come apart and go back together. Then we filled the boiler and could actually see the water in the sight glass and now have a more manual control of things. Besides saving money I used the opportunity to teach a valuable life skill to the next generation.
So on to the final step was the auto water level control. Now this unit sit on the water inlet to the furnace and gets a signal from the low water level sensor to put more water in the boiler, called make up water, after taking off the cover of the control and reading the settings for the small dip switches I see they have it set to come on after 2 minutes and to run for 2 minutes giving only 2 gallons of make up water. The problem was it seems one to be turning off and was over filling. So after turning off the power even though this is 24 volt control circuit and not a 120 circuit, I took apart the controller and carefully put aside the screws and cover and with small paper labels marked the two power leads to the solenoid. Then I took the solenoid off knowing there would be a magnetic plunger and return spring inside. Setting those aside and checking for wear and corrosion I found the rubber diaphragm sealing seat covered in scale from the hard water, which was preventing the seal from shutting off the water at the right time and allowing the boiler to over fill, which is why I found the manual water feed valves in the off position after the last service tech left. He obviously knew he would be back for another service all after turning the valves to the to off, it would only take a few days for the system to run low on water and for the furnace to stop running, nice to be able to plan future service calls. I took everything apart slowly and carefully and didn’t use any sharp edged tools so as not to scratch or tear anything. I eased the diaphragm off and cleaned it with Armor All [rubber/plastic treatment spray] so as to preserve the synthetic rubber seal. Then using CLR [Clear Lube wire pulling lubricant] and a soft wood piece I trimmed off some scrap wood, I worked it around the brass sealing seat scrubbing the scale off. No holes, no gouges. Everything looked good to me. I also made note of the part number of the gasket and the serial number of the controller so later I might e-mail the company and get some back up parts. So after reassembling every thing I refilled the boiler part way then lowered the level till the controller demanded water. The value worked and filled the boiler perfectly to right below the high water line with setting the timer to four minutes. I re-did the whole cycle again just to test it. So instead of a $650 replacement controller and $100 service call, I did all the work for the price of a cup of tea provided by my sweetheart, some Armor All and 2 cents worth of CLR. I think this would come out to almost $300 dollars and hour. Wow, I really am in the wrong business.
Fourth improvement, CLR, Armor All, wood chip.
So nothing high tech or even hard, a few hours worth of work and it is in better shape then when the service people left it after $200 of professional work. Besides the end result of improved and better running equipment, the first return on my investment of time and labor was an immediate saving of $750. I can use that to buy things that I can not make myself. For instance $200 would more than pay for a used 22 rifle and a thousand cartridges, or as much as a months worth of food for the whole household if spent very carefully.
Now both I and my son and my lady friend understand better how the system works and can in an emergency override the auto controls with the manual valves and I can teach the 2 kids what to do when there is no heat on in the house. And we are learning to work as a team and to figure things out and to communicate and to think on our own. The best survival skills I feel I could give my kids is teach them to think outside the box and work things through using that uncommon thing often called common sense.
Another important point is a little maintenance goes a long way, the two sight glass valves are so corroded into their respective feed pipes I am not sure I could have gotten them out with out lots more piping complications, if I was to try to replace them which is why I am sure the service people didn’t.
I grew up learning to fix things from my grandfather and my father, so by gently refurbishing the sight glass valves in place I saved a service call and further repair work.
Now that I am done I will digital photo the whole set up and print it off to go in the furnace file with dates and notes when this work was last performed so I also know how long my repairs are holding up.
Thinking back and as to how I learned to be self sufficient, when I was growing up I watched my grandfather service a bicycle wheel bearing while he sat in a folding lounge chair cleaning parts in kerosene, out doors on the cement patio of a used bike my parents had obtained for us. He was teaching me to wipe off the old hard grease and explaining that 5 cents of grease will make the bike run like a million dollars. I must have been all of 10 and am now 52 this year, and recently I helped my 13 year rebuild his first bicycle wheel hub and I said to him 5 cents worth grease will make it run like a million dollars. I can see my grandfather still and remember his patience as he showed me how to clean and assemble that hub so many years ago and that simple lesson still brings value today 40 plus years later. Thanks grandfather and you are remembered in a story to your great grand son you never met but knows where and what I learned, to do things carefully and the right way, and I hope he teaches his grand son or daughter and tells them about me and how I learned from you.
I take this same approach to being prepared with extra food stores and clothes and knowing how to use tools be they an ax or a buck saw, how to build a camp fire or always carrying a first aid kit in the car, and a spare flashlight and owning a box of candles and hard rations and good boots and the value of good socks, and knowing who to call and where to go in an emergency. It is all in the knowledge one carries in one’s head be prepared and be knowledgeable.
So the lesson is to know your equipment. If we ever are without heat and snowed in and the service people can’t come for days, like just what happened in Buffalo [New York] last week in my home town, we could now that we are familiar with the system possibly get it running again
One other important note all the work was done with the power shut off and the water turned off at the main. None of this type of work should be undertaken without some real knowledge of the basic safety required around any power equipment. – D.A.L.



Odds ‘n Sods:

S.H. Suggested this site: Mattracks–Rubber Track Conversion Systems For 4X4 Vehicles

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I recently had a great phone conversation with Dr. Geri Guidetti of The Ark Institute. She mentioned that there are lots of people that prepared for Y2K who are now in possession of 8 , 9, or even 10-year-old stocks of gardening seed that by now have pitiful germination potential. These folks might mistakenly believe that they are still prepared to plant a sustenance garden. It is high time to replace that seed, preferably with heirloom (non-hybrid) varieties, such as those sold by The Ark Institute, the Seed Savers Exchange, or Ready Made Resources.

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There is an interesting thread of conversation underway over at The Claire Files, under the heading: Anyone planning on sticking around in a large city?





Note from JWR:

Today we present another article for Round 8 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $1,600.) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. If there are a lot of great entries this round of the contest, I will again be sending out a few complimentary copies of my novel “Patriots” as “honorable mention” awards. If you want a chance to win the contest, start writing and e-mail us your article. Round 8 will end on January 31st. Remember that the articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.



City Versus Country Mindsets and Expectations, by Inyokern

As we all know, City people and Country people have a very different outlook on life. Some of that is opportunity, some is envy, some is ignorance. For the last 120+ years, the US economy (and much of the world economy) has been one of capitalism and materialism. Making stuff and selling it, making the economy grow until the physical limits are reached. Well, they’ve been reached. Peak Oil has led to the beginning of what is probably a pretty long collapse, but I can only judge based on the Roman Empire and the 1929 crash, history, rather than compare the USA to places like Zimbabwe where collapse has advanced at a rapid rate due to deliberately destructive policies by a madman. We’re not really like that, and we have the advantage of a serious food surplus, even post oil America will be able to feed itself, provided that it doesn’t starve its own population to meet foreign debt payments like Argentina did. America isn’t like Europe and I’m very grateful for that.
City people have a fundamentally different approach to life. They have high expectations for their lifestyle: the power doesn’t go out, the water is hot in moments, the mail comes every day, and the supermarket is full of food which is fresh and exotic. City people work, usually very hard in often humiliating jobs to pay for a tiny apartment, a high car payment, and those luxuries they’ve grown used to. Their view of the country is from a 75 mph window on the way to somewhere more scenic. City people want it all now, and they don’t want excuses about why they should have to wait. Don’t blame them for this. The city is a very competitive place and it is our nature as a species to compete for resources.

The Country outlook is one of perseverance and hardship. Its about flexibility and disappointment, debt, and a slow pace of life. Watching the seasons turn. Flowing life closer to nature and its hardships. The closer to nature they live, the more they perceive the cyclic nature of things. Compared to City people, Country people seem out of touch with modern culture. However, in general, country people have far more important context and contact with their neighbors. Elbow room changes how you think. There is a great deal of independence in Country living, but the kind that supports ones neighbors rather than necessarily blames them. Its not perfect either. Kids raised improperly on MTV and WB want what they see on TV, and that envy, that materialism leads to all kinds of misery, and either has those kids grow up to be city people or turn into junkies hooked on Meth or Dope trying to flush away their disappointment. When it comes down to it, TV commercials, the seed of materialism, are the real enemy for country folk. They’re designed to make people buy things and they’re very good at it. Much of TV is really commercial advertising. Some programs which repute to “review” products are little more than thinly veiled informercials selling this product, [and by extension] selling debt.

City people see the countryside as a source of food, of momentary scenery, and as real estate, future subdivisions and Wal-Marts, Taco Bell and McDonalds. They can’t help that. They hate the emptiness. It makes them afraid, or bored. They’re used to the frantic pace and tight quarters that the city offers. The countryside is slow cycles and peace and quiet, for the most part. I was raised at the edge of a subdivision in the middle of the countryside, surrounded by cows and rangeland. We often had deer, and sometimes had coyotes, wild pigs, and I once witnessed a mountain lion scurry by in the early evening. Now I live in the suburbs, which is basically the city just with smaller apartments.

The basic conflict between the City and Country folk is one of money. The City sees the countryside as a life support system for them, and considers the people who live in the countryside to be socially incapable, thus they are “forced” to live out there. They don’t feel bad or think much about their city-based issues destroying the harmony of country towns, or what that means to the bigger picture.

Thanks to Peak Oil, the conflict will get more aggressive. Extreme Exurbs, subdivisions 100 miles from a city where the population commutes for work are going to die due to the rising cost of fuel, a problem that will never go away. Eventually it will cost too much to drive to work to make the pay worth the price of the fuel. Yes, carpooling and hybrids and mass transit will delay this, but there’s a limit to everything. Without income, they won’t be able to pay a mortgage on an unwieldy and badly located home. These people will either accept debt slavery (now that Bankruptcy isn’t protection anymore) or try to find work in the countryside. Perhaps they’ll prove to be flexible. Maybe they’ll surprise us. Maybe they’ll wade around in cow-muck, dig post holes by hand, haul compost/manure, or do any number of semi-skilled labor the countryside always needs done. And do it for minimum wage. Somehow, I think the City People are going to have to come to terms with much lower expectations than they’re accustomed to.

Country People won’t have it too great either, in case you’re thinking they would. As heavy users of fuel to get to jobs which pay for their own high costs of living, often on very tight budgets, Country people are going to hurt, probably even sooner than the Supercommuters in the Exurbs do. Home Loans are defaulting at a surprisingly high rate in Exurbs and countryside here in California. Those envious kids will hear about how bad things are in the City, but see how much worse they are next door and have even fewer options than before. Reasonably, one can expect the drug problem to dramatically worsen, as well as spree killing incidents. If they’ve got nothing to lose, why not? This destructive trend is magnified by causing distrust in the countryside, and murder of neighbors’ junkie kids burglarizing and killing for sport will become an ugly fact of the countryside. Many of the people defending themselves will be tried and convicted of murder because the DAs and Judges are often prisoners of City Morality, which has little to do with justice. Shoot first, bury deep and keep quiet will end up the rule of thumb for two-legged pests in the countryside. If it isn’t already. I’ve met enough ranchers who had the look of men who’d killed that I think its been fact for some time now. Always be on your best possible behavior with ranchers. They’re not as patient as their reputation implies.

City people who love the countryside and want to move there but lack the training in Country Social behavior are going to have a hard time of it. (Believe me when I say that. I’m very fond of privacy which is easily achieved in the city but hard to get in the countryside.) Lumped in with other city people, they’re going to have a steep learning curve and will need to make a lot of very positive First Impressions (how many times can you make one?) and take on permanent local volunteerism to build good will and avoid becoming [seen as] “Them.” Even that may not be enough. Part of the beauty of the countryside is everybody has a very long context, often decades worth, so communication (and bitterness) has a serious intensity that Shallow City People will never have.

This insight into the difference between City and Country mindsets is really important. As the suburbs continue to citify and the exurbs die, the difference between the two becomes more and more pronounced. Material differences will matter too. Peak Oil means power outages, not just fuel. True, power will probably just get more expensive where coal burning power plants exist, so the Midwest and East will see few changes. The West, however, is going to take it in the shorts. The power will be off more than it will be on, and it will be on the cities, not in the countryside. I fully expect laws to be passed, under Federal or State emergency approval, to deny basic utility services to the countryside. That means phones, electrical power, ambulance, police presence, paving of secondary and tertiary roads will fall on the county or private associations to provide. You see, the cost of maintaining these systems exceeds the income gained from their fees. Either the country person pays something like $500/month for phone service, or they give it up after the next winter storm drops the lines. The focus for luxuries like phone service and electrical power will go to the towns and cities, and maybe the towns will be up the creek too. This is a fairly logical and practical progression, even in a first world country like the USA.

Copper is a precious metal again. Its being stolen all the time. If, for instance, you’ve lost your job thanks to economic collapse and you can’t feed your five kids at your ranch which never made money anyway, you’re going to need to pay for it somehow. You lost phone service and power last winter and the local power utility company won’t fix it. Steal the cable, sell it for scrap, pay your mortgage, put food on the plate and when harvest comes, charge a fortune for the now more expensive food thanks to the end of cheap fertilizers and insecticides. Peak Oil is forcing a morality decision and the city people have already chosen materialism rather than connection to their rural roots.

The City Person with their inbred city morality created by the good intentions of liberal intellectuals in New York and Boston can’t conceive of a life where stealing is not only justified but is moral. When you’re abandoned by your country, you survive or perish based on actions not good intentions. I foresee that the Cities will continue to grow until they can’t, and the population will continue to Hive and Specialize like insects because that’s what cities thrive on: specialists. They offer specialized goods. Keeping City People out of the countryside is a minor advantage, but Post Peak, that turns into an ugliness that we can barely imagine now.

I keep talking about this subject because the public still doesn’t get it. I hope to eventually refine this description in a shorter but still effective essay. Someday I’ll get it right and people will stop being dumb, and stop disconnecting their behavior from the consequences. – Inyokern



Odds ‘n Sods:

Hardly an unexpected news flash: Iran has announced it would replace the dollar with the euro in foreign transactions and state-held foreign assets, in an apparent response to mounting US pressure on its banking system.

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Aaron Krowne of AutoDogmatic.com notes: “If base metal values continue to increase by 5% per year on average, and the dollar continues to depreciate by about the same, then in about 26-1?2 years, a nickel will be worth a dollar in inherent value. If the rates are 10% per year, then in a bit over 13 years, this milestone will be reached.”

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Readers Sean M. and Scott D. both suggested this thought-provoking piece: “The US is Insolvent” by Dr. Chris Martenson (author/editor of The End of Money), posted at Jim Puplava’s Finanacial Sense web site.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"If history teaches us anything, it teaches that simple-minded appeasement or wishful thinking about our adversaries is folly. It means the betrayal of our past, the squandering of our freedom." – Ronald Reagan (1983)



Note From JWR:

The Carbon Monoxide (CO) poisoning fatality count is now at 14 in the Seattle, Washington region, in the power outages following the recent wind storm. These were mostly people running backup generators inside their houses.



Letter Re: First Hand Observations on the Recent Pacific Northwest Wind Storm

Background: I am an 11 year veteran peace officer and survivalist, or in more politically correct terminology, a POP – Preparedness Oriented Person. I work in a moderate sized city in the Seattle area. On 14-15 December, the Tacoma-Seattle-Everett metropolitan area suffered one of the most deadly and damaging windstorms in recorded history. The storm easily eclipsed the last major deadly blow on Inaugural Day, 1993. That storm had been identified as a “once in a century” type storm. At the peak, over 1 million people did not have power.
This storm was modeled and forecasted with accuracy five days before it occurred. Yes indeed, people had five days to prepare. Weather forecasters warned viewers and listeners to be prepared. They were right. Gusts ranging from 55 to 70 mph were recorded in the area. Sustained winds exceeded 40 to 50 mph in many areas. A top gust of 135 mph was recorded at a ski area near the North Central Washington city of Wenatchee. A month of record rain coupled with several preceding days of heavy rains led to many more trees than normal being toppled. An unusually violent (for the area) thunderstorm produced heavy rain and ground strike lightening. At this writing, 4 deaths have been directly attributed to the windstorm. Three were from collisions with trees in the roadway and one from a tree crushing a mobile home. Additionally, the storm left clear skies and cold weather. The three following days after the windstorm had nighttime temperatures that were at or below freezing. One death was attributed to carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning and over 100 people have been treated for CO poisoning. The one who died from CO poisoning, he was running a gas generator inside his home. Several homes and business have been burned, either from direct electrical line contact to roofs and buildings or from candles igniting surfaces or being knocked over.
Observations: Gosh, where do I begin? In watching the news, it was easily apparent that so many were ill or unprepared. This continues to befuddle me, as the citizens of this area are involved in frequent windstorms, power outages, and other natural disasters or events. Watching the news showed how stupid people were. In one instance, a major eastside of Seattle city was 80% without power. This meant no power to stores, homes and other businesses.
Grocery stores: Stores could not sell as the computer driver point of sale terminals were down. People could not readily buy supplies. My local Albertson’s lost over $60,000 worth of cold and frozen goods as the power was off for 18 hours and by law, they could not sell the slightly warmed foodstuffs. People were traveling as far away as 30 miles to find an open store. Many stores that were opened quickly ran out of staples. Again, my local grocery was at minimal bread, paper goods, fuels (including the supermarket wood bundles) and batteries. While I spoke with the manager, I overheard one woman on her cell phone loudly complain that it was her third store that did not have wood.
Gas stations: stations without power could not pump. Those stations that could pump saw long lines and quickly ran out of fuel. One fellow was ingenious enough to stand beside a road in an affluent city east of Seattle and advertise that he was selling 25 gallons of gas for $15 dollars a gallon! And he sold it all! Expecting the worst, I refilled some gas cans and my vehicle on Thursday morning after I got off work. At the local gas station, a citizen who knows me made a snide comment about if the world was coming to an end. That citizen now sits in his home, four days without power. It was reported that those stations that were the only ones available quickly raised their prices to 20 to 30 cents above market prices, in reflection of demand. The state will apparently investigate whether these stations were gouging.
Alternative power: boy howdy! You can certainly tell who has alternative power. I could easily see their houses all lit up long before I heard the generators. A local firefighter I know half-humorously stated that he could make his retirement if he had some generators for sale on Craigslist.com right now. He is right. On a news report today, a local Home Depot had people waiting in line, just to buy a Coleman portable generator. Home Depot sold out of two pallets worth of generators in a very short time. Around here, folks would rather have that High Definition 42-inch plasma screen rather than a solid generator. POPs like me should look for a whole slew of lightly used generators for sale come springtime.
Alternative heat: a majority of homes in this region do have working fireplaces. However, you would think they are decorative as I heard of so many people looking for firewood. Local firewood dealers were busy selling and stocking. Additionally, many new homes being built do not have real working fireplaces but instead have what amount to nothing more than decorative gas fireplaces (which look nice but produce little usable heat). During the daytime, you could tell who did not have power and heat due to so many fireplaces burning. The chimney sweeps in this area should have a good spring.
Security: while patrolling, I was amazed at how many people in power out areas left their garage doors open. I was told by a few that they left them open because the power was out. When asked about the manual disconnect, they seemed generally amazed that there was such a thing on mechanical garage door openers . . . In addition to security, I was also amazed at how many people ran their generators in their front yards! Easily accessible and in less than 20 seconds, gone.
Where are the cops, firefighters, public works, etc? Folks, I can tell you everybody was out there (who were scheduled). My small fire station, which usually handles about 20 calls for service in a 96 hour block, saw over 150 calls during the same period, most storm related. A tree branch damaged one of the firefighting rigs. Cops were out there and stretched thin. Between doing road closures and stopping yet another knucklehead who could not read the “ROAD CLOSED” sign, they were busy. A couple of my fellow officers had to do traffic stops on people simply driving reckless around down trees, power lines, etc. People in this area simply got “a case of the stupids” when the weather went sideways. Public works crews from all the cities had their hands full. I know of one case where a woman nearly went to blows with a crew simply because they were cutting “her tree.” Of course, her tree was fallen across a street and blocking it. Again, the stupids. One public works worker I know told me of a story of a downed power line, hanging chest high in a roadway. They were blocking one side and flashing their headlights and amber rotators at people. One fellow stopped his car on the other side of the live lines, walked underneath them and ambled up to their truck to tell them that the lines were down. (The same ones he had just walked under–which were also the ones they were parked next to and trying to keep people from driving into .)
Power distribution: one of the things preventing having everyone up and running is short order has been the interactions of trees, lines, poles and crews to get things cut up. Per policy, public works crews are not to cut a tree until the downed power lines are declared safe. However, some lines cannot be declared safe until the trees are partially cut. Add to the mix that many power poles were snapped. No utility in the area had enough poles stockpiled so they have to be shipped it from the east. With the mountain passes suffering blizzards and some occasionally extreme weather, trucking becomes a challenge. Why power lines are not brought underground in this region is a mystery to me. Perhaps can enlighten me as to why.
As for my family, and me we took the warnings seriously. I made sure I had plenty of fuel in the cans, generator and cars. My battery/inverter setup was fully charged and ready. I had plenty of firewood stacked and ready. I purposely bought a house that has gas appliances and a fully normal fireplace with a heat exchanger system (with low wattage power blower – works great on just the inverter setup). I had my supplies established and weather the storm with ease. I did not have a tree fall on my house and the tree limbs I collected (that many people were disposing of with either services or green waste) made for a huge stack of logs to be seasoned for next winter. Best Regards – MP