Note from JWR:

Today we present the first article for Round 16 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win a valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. (Worth up to $2,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 16 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

The Homemade Alcohol Stove and The Wonder Box, by LeAnne

In any situation, small electricity outage, or large-scale grid-down disaster, a simple homemade alcohol stove and a Wonder Box slow cooker can simplify your life and add the comfort of cooking and warmth.

Why alcohol?
Alcohol is the one fuel that can be burned indoors without any chimney or any objectionable fumes. The only byproduct is water. [JWR Adds: Keep in mind that for safety, even with an alcohol stove, some ventilation is needed, sine the combustion will consume available oxygen.]

Isopropyl alcohol (70%) is cheap. A couple of quarts can be purchased for about $3.00 at Costco or Sam’s Club.
The small alcohol stove burns about a pint of alcohol in eight hours. It can be used to cook food. It can also bring the temperature of a small room up to reasonable levels without any fumes. In a larger room, you might want to use three of them.

How to make one?
You need a larger can, such as a clean empty steel one gallon paint can; and a smaller can, such as a clean empty quart paint can. These can be purchased clean and unused from a paint store, or a store like Home Depot, for $1.00 to $4.00 each. You also need a roll of cheap (not quality) toilet tissue and your alcohol. The reason you don’t want quality toilet tissue is that it won’t fit into the can. However, you can overcome that problem by just removing some of the tissue.
First, you remove the cardboard tube from the inside of the tissue with a knife. Then scrunch up the roll of tissue and stuff it into the smaller can. Then take the larger can and punch holes all over the side of the can, so that air can flow through it. You can do this with a hammer and nails. You can draw designs on the can with a dry-erase marker and pound holes along the lines, if you wish. If you fill it with water and freeze it before punching the holes in it, you won’t smash it while you are making the holes. If you need it “right now,” you can fill it with ice pieces and snow, tamped down, before pounding, or just find a way to make holes without smashing it.
Fill the smaller can with 1-1/2 cups of alcohol, so that you can see the alcohol at the top of the tissue. Put this can into the larger one, and light the alcohol. You can put a pan on the top of it to cook your food. I would be careful to put it somewhere where nobody will knock it over accidentally while it is cooking.
One pint of alcohol will burn about eight hours. However, if you extinguish the flame, before you can light it again, you have to pour in more alcohol to bring the level up to the top of the toilet tissue again before you light it.
You should not plan to store the alcohol stove with the alcohol in the can, since it could rust.
It isn’t an extremely hot flame. It may take a bit longer to cook your food. We took quite a while one day to cook pancakes for four hungry people using alcohol. But it is easy, cheap and safe. And it requires materials that you probably have on hand.

* * * *

The Wonder Box
Ideally, if you have an alcohol stove, you have a Wonder Box insulated slow cooker to go with it.
If you bring your stew to a boil over your alcohol stove and then put it into a Wonder Box and cover it carefully with its lid–six hours later, it will still be so hot that you will have to use hot pads to take it out. It has been cooking all of that time, and saving you fuel.
If the food has been hot and cooking all of that time, it did not need to be refrigerated. So you could cook your stew and eat it hot for lunch, then put it boiling hot, nestled down into the Wonder Box, and take it out still hot for dinner. No refrigerator needed.
The fabric must be 100% cotton to prevent it from melting from the heat of the pan. The pan must be one that has small handles on each side and it must have a lid. A pan with one long handle extending out from under the Wonder Box lid, will lose too much heat through the handle, and it will not work as well.
The Wonder Box is much like two small bean bag chairs, one being the lid for the other. You can get the pattern in a fabric store. The larger one is 24” in diameter and the smaller one about 16”. You make it in sections, like orange sections, just the peeling part, made out of 100% cotton. Denim is a good fabric. Even old jeans stitched together would work. You stitch it together, leaving an 8” hole for turning. Turn it right side out and fill with seven gallons of Styrofoam beads. Make the lid in the same way, using four gallons of beads. Don’t let the static electricity of the beads bother you. Pin your seam, then try nestling a pan down inside to see if you have enough or too many beads. Sew up the seams, and you have a Wonder Box.

The Styrofoam beads can be purchased at stores such as Smith’s grocery stores. They come in a four-foot long tube that holds enough for two Wonder Boxes, for about $15.00.
Nestle a covered pot of boiling food down into the Wonder Box bottom, and carefully cover with the insulating Wonder Box top. It is a good idea to put a layer of aluminum foil between the pan and the Wonder Box just to keep the Wonder Box clean. Let it sit for up to seven hours, and it will cook with no additional heat.
Whatever method you use to bring your food to a rolling boil before you put it into the Wonder Box, it can save valuable fuel in a time of no electricity or other services. * * * *

Variations on The Alcohol Stove:

What if you need an alcohol stove “right now,” and you don’t have clean empty paint cans?
Some people have used #10 cans like the ones that food storage wheat or rice or beans, etc. come in. They have also used a “church key” type can opener to make the holes in these cans, since they are lighter. I would prefer the gallon paint can if possible, because it is heavier and therefore more stable with a pot of boiling food on top of it. Also, it has a lid and a handle for carrying.
You can also use the #1 cans that come with the larger size canned peaches and hold about a quart, for the inside of the stove. The problem with these is that it is harder to extinguish the flame down inside the can, because you don’t have a lid to put on it. This can be overcome, of course. Just don’t singe your arm while doing it.

You could also use something like the “Pirouettes” cookie cans. The problem with these is that you have an extra inch of can. Not a terrible problem.
If you need more room heat, you could use three #303 cans like you get with canned vegetables, and put all three down inside one of those large $5.00 popcorn cans that you get at Christmas. Don’t forget to put the holes in the sides of the can. You would have to take off more toilet tissue from the roll, and you would have to use a sharp knife to slice off about 1/2 inch of the end of the roll of tissue, so that it would not extend past the top of the smaller can. But it can be done. You then have a nice little warming “furnace” with a lid on the top.

When terrible things happen, people need something simple, dependable and comforting. They need something easy to use and fast. After they have had time to adjust, they can get on with more complex tools and equipment. But for that first little while, an alcohol stove is easy, simple, lightweight and comforting, as well as safe, and it won’t make any harmful fumes.

Letter Re: Some Offshore Retreat Considerations

Mr. Rawles,

A good set of links on finding a homestead that may be useful to your readers can be found at The Mother Earth News web site.

I also agree with Jason in North Idaho’s comments. Relocating to the developing world for the purpose of long term survival is not something I would recommend. I am presently living in the developing world because I work here–at least for the time being. I probably have this in common with many of your readers who work as security contractors. My long term goal is to return to return to my home country and relocate to a small town.

Don’t relocate to run away. Relocate to achieve a goal. Think about the kind of lifestyle you want to live, and work towards that.

I am willing to accept more risk than most people. I also was trained by the military to function in unstable environments and consequently I get paid a lot more to do the same job because of that. But this is a short term temporary strategy to enable me to get some cash to buy some land. Everyone must make their own risk assessments and plan accordingly.

In the meantime my focus is planning for and taking precautions against political instability, crime and pandemic flu. Long term I am very concerned about Peak Oil. The developing world will stop developing when foreign aid is cut off and that there will be a serious population crash in an energy descent scenario. Regards, – Felix D.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader “Suz” recommended United States Plastic Corp., in Lima, Ohio as a supplier for food grade HDPE storage buckets. Although they are a large-scale manufacturer, they are willing to take fairly small orders directly from the public. Suz said that it was a pleasure doing business with this “God-owned” company.

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KAF mentioned this piece on rethinking and revisions in Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR).

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Mark C. flagged this: UBS Gives Haircuts on Auction Rate Securities

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Thanks to Hawaiian K. for finding this: Analyst Predicts Corn Rationing in 2008

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The primary fear we entertain today is that our “slaves” (machines) may be about to run out of “food” (oil) and our intricate civilization will come sputtering to a stop. There are lots of arguments
about this, with wide differences of opinion about when the oil will run out, how fast we are using it up, and how much unknown oil remains hidden in the Earth’s crust. It really doesn’t matter. No one argues that the oil will not, in fact, run out sooner or later. It will. Certainly no one disputes that the Arabs, who have the largest reserves left in the world, are capable of rationing our supply or cutting it off if they like. They already have. And as for the United States’ policy of developing the north slope of Alaska as quickly as possible in order to become energy “self sufficient,”that’s like noticing that the gas tank is nearly empty and flooring the accelerator so you can get to a service station before you run out. It’s not very smart.” – Dr. Bruce Clayton, “Life After Doomsday” (1979)

Notes from JWR:

I’ve never been much of a trickster, so please don’t analyze today’s posts, looking for April Fools Day tricks. There are none.

We have finished the judging… The winner of Round 15 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. is Paul C., for his article “My Seven Favorite North American Edible Wild Plants”. He gets the top prize–a four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. These certificates are worth up to $2,000! Our thanks to Front Sight’s director, Naish Piazza, for generously donating the course certificate. Check out the Front Sight web site and take advantage of their great training opportunities. My advice is to sign up for courses that start before May 15th, to beat the summer heat!

Second prize goes to Nina for her article: “Sanitation During a Grid Down Collapse”. Her prize is is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing.

I’m also sending out two honorable mention prizes to W. in Washington for his article “Characteristics of a General Purpose Survival Flashlight”, and to Brandon in Utah for his article “AA Cells and Mobile Power”. Both of them will get their choice of autographed copies of my books: “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation”, or “SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog.”

Note to all the prize winners: Send me an e-mail to let me know your snail mail addresses, and your prizes will be mailed to you shortly. Thanks ladies gents, and congratulations!
Today we start Round 16 of the contest. Send your non-fiction articles via e-mail for a chance to win some great prizes! The first prize will again be a four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate!

Letter Re: Learn How to “Roll Your Own” Ammo

James;
One skill that will be in great demand by almost everyone in a post-TEOTWAWKI environment will be a skilled and resourceful ammunition reloader. Equipment is relatively inexpensive and downright cheap if you know where to look. Pawn shops almost never buy reloading equipment because it is slow and, or difficult to move. I have made arrangements with a few pawn shop owners and when a batch of reloading stuff comes available from estates they just give them my number. No matter how much gear there is, a pawn shop will only offer, if they even make an offer about a hundred bucks. I usually try to offer the widows a fair price but in the end you are still buying for pennies on the dollar. Often reloading gear will be given to you if you show an interest and a little respect.

It is an opportunity to acquire odd caliber dies, bullets, brass and often large stores of powder. The old reloading books are great references for older powders that will still be usable if stored properly. Always store your powder in a cool, dry and dark place. I am using some 30 year old powder that was stored this way and it works just fine. One can never have too much powder, [too many primers,] or too many reloading manuals.

Any gun shop that sells reloading equipment has free loading data provided my the powder and bullet manufactures and these small books can be acquired by writing, calling or going to the powder and bullet companies web sites. These are invaluable resources as they try to show case how versatile their products can be and the large reloading manuals will leave out some less than ideal powder, bullet, caliber combinations that we may be forced to try some day simply because of space limitations and the large manuals are somewhat expensive although necessary. Remember that we are trying to make safe reliable ammo that will suffice for the purpose at hand and we are not trying to come up with the perfect powder, bullet combo that will better factory ballistics.

JWR is right when he suggests that you stock only common caliber ammo in large quantities for yourself. However, there are still going to be quite a few .32 Winchester Special, 38-55 and especially 30-30 Winchesters around that will need ammunition and all three of those caliber cases can be made from fired .30-30 cases. A host of calibers can have their brass cases formed from the very common .30-06 such as .270 Winchester and .25-06 just by sizing the necks down. The.308 Winchester (7.62x51mm) is the parent case for .243 Win,..260 Rem, and 7mm-08. Simple neck resizing is all that is necessary and all it takes is a little knowledge and the correct dies.

Much more elaborate cartridge conversions can be done by annealing the cartridge brass (necks only–never the bases) simply by standing the cases in an inch of water, heating them until red with a torch and then knocking them over to cool in the water. This softens the brass and makes splitting case necks less likely. Brass work hardens as it is reloaded and this process is a useful skill to prolong case life even for common calibers. Calibers like the 7.5x55mm Schmidt Rubin in the well made Swiss [K31] rifles that have flooded the market the past few years are easy to fabricate from the very common .308 Win cases if you know where to look for specs and the place to look is “The Handloaders Manual of Cartridge Conversions” by Donnelly & Towsley from Stoeger Publishing. It is a great resource and it covers more than 1,000 cartridges in detail with accurate drawings, capacities and dimensions. With this book a set of good calipers, micrometer and reloading data there are very few calibers that one can not reloaded.

Anytime someone asks you if you want a small lot of odd caliber of brass take it and clean, sort and store it. It doesn’t matter if you don’t have a gun in that caliber, someone, somewhere will or it might be used to create cases for another caliber There are only four sizes of boxer primers so stock up on those. Large rifle, small rifle, large pistol and small pistol and don’t worry about magnum primers just use one of the hotter standard primers such as Winchester ‘s Stainless. The only caveat here is gas auto loading rifles should only use CCI #34 or #41 hard military primers to prevent slam fires.

There are some powders that are very versatile and can be used for many calibers, for example Unique handgun powder can be used for just about every pistol caliber. It might not be the perfect choice for certain cartridges but it would certainly serve the purpose.

Reloading skills can be bartered for other things because a firearm without ammunition doesn’t even make a good club. As charity you might be the only person that can give a family a means of self defense by reloading ammo for them that is impossible to obtain any other way.

Since you can’t reload .22 rimfire ammo, buy a couple of the 550 round boxes every time that you are at Wal-Mart, or mail order 5,000 round. cases. This is something that almost everyone can afford. While you are making connections at the pawn shops pick up some used .22 rifles, I often can buy Glenfield and Marlin autos for less than 50 bucks apiece if I shop in the spring and avoid the 1st and 15th of the month and go on the first of the week. Pawn shop owners are more likely to cut you a deal at these times because of cash flow. What a great trade item or gift to some deserving but unprepared family

Bullet casting equipment is often included with reloading equipment and this simple skill is another arrow in your quiver. The Cast Bullet Association has a free forum that has a wealth of knowledge and any question that you have will be answered by the top experts in this field in an informative and entertaining way. Cast bullets were used for all hunting and war purposes for centuries before jacketed bullets came along in the late 1800s. You will notice that some of the cast bullet rifle shooters are getting 10 shot groups around an inch at 200 yards! I assure you that my efforts have never been that amazing but then I’m not a top competitor.

Making bullets and reloading ammo could make your talents very sought after over a fairly large geographic area so be prudent about your security measures. Word of your skills might bring about many barter opportunities that otherwise might be impossible. As charity, you might save an entire family’s lives for very little investment of resources and we all want to help the good guys out if we can. Folks will want to insure your safety if you have built up a relationship with them and provide a necessary service.

I have an extensive list of reloading equipment but have invested less than the cost of a FAL or M1A. I’ve been at this for almost 40 years now and have taught Boy Scouts, housewives, service veterans, preachers or anyone that asked the necessary skills to produce quality ammunition. Several times I have been given firearms simply because ammo was unavailable and I haven’t failed to produce good safe ammo for any gun yet. Get your beans, bullets and band-aids in order first, and then get started looking for the tools and acquire the skills to become the community Ammo Cobbler. – East Tennessee Hillbilly

Letter Re: Sword Ban Begins on April 6th in the United Kingdom

James:
In the past you have recommended that SurvivalBlog readers in the UK to get a samurai sword. Well, they are banning them now.

As of the 6th April 2008 it will become illegal to manufacture, import or sell (but not own) all swords with a curved, single edged blade over 50 cm in the U.K.

Although they can still supply such weapons for “permitted activities”. These activities include; Historical re-enactments and Sporting Activities.

The legislation does not mention samurai swords. It only mentions single-edged curved swords with a blade length of 50cm or over. As per the document, it appears that all swords with those characteristics will be banned. Including Chinese Dao, American & European Sabres, Filipino Swords etc.

They have not had a vote with the members of parliament on this. They are just banning them [by decree].

If you want one before that, I would say the best makers seem to be Cold Steel (but they cost a lot more and I don’t think you will find one in time), or Hanwai / Paul Chan. (For he latter, contact the UK dealer–you may be just in time.) It looks like I got my samurai [sword] just in time.

You can always get a non-curved blade like a Shinodi (Ninja sword), a broad sword or a Side sword (I want the Hanwei one) these last two are also double-edge. Cold Steel makes a [straight] double-edge samurai sword so that for now will be okay for now but I bet soon they will ban anything double-edge or with a blade over 50cm. – Simon in England

JWR Replies: The UK government is clearly doing its best to put its citizenry at the mercy of criminals. Soon enough, your ever-tightening Country Code will have your self defense options reduced to just butter knives, ASBOs, cricket bats, and harsh language. It is now abundantly clear that violent crime is already at unacceptable levels in urban areas of the UK. In the event of an economic collapse, things could resemble the recently-released Doomsday movie. Under those circumstances the majority will fall prey to a minority that is younger, stronger, and uninhibited by moral compunctions.

I must reassert that it is clearly time to take the gap. The US and New Zealand still have immigration programs that are advantageous. Get out of England soon, while these programs are still available.

Letter Re: A Special Antibiotics-By-Mail Offer for SurvivalBlog Readers

Jim:
Many SurvivalBlog readers have expressed an interest in obtaining antibiotics for emergency use, for example t be prepared for another 9/11-style anthrax attack (for which ciprofloxacin has been recommended in the past by the FDA and Centers for Disease Control) or a flu epidemic. The gentleman who owns a discount pharmacy has agreed to a solution. From now until April 30, 2008, The Medical Center Pharmacy, located in the lobby of The Hillman Medical Center at 2116 Chestnut St, Philadelphia, PA 19103, will offer for sale sealed stock bottles of 100 Ciprofloxacin 500 mg tablets in their original packaging “to SurvivalBlog readers who mention discount code SB1” for only $33. (If your prescription is for less than 51 tablets of ciprofloxacin, the price will be $25. [The cost per unit is higher because] if the quantity is less than 100 tablets the stock bottle will be opened by the pharmacist and pills counted.) In addition, 10 capsules of Tamiflu 75 mg in their sealed original packaging for treatment and prevention of flu will be available for $93. Any other prescription medicine available in the USA will also be offered at a discount price if “discount code SB-1” is mentioned. This pharmacy has been owned by the same pharmacist for the past 15 years. Both of these medicines are recently manufactured and have distant expiration dates. The pharmacy’s toll free phone number is 888-653-9404 or if busy, call 215-568-3858. FAX: 215.564.6065.

There are four straightforward conditions. Firstly, since these are prescription products, you must have a health care provider phone, fax, or mail in a prescription. The pharmacy is only able to honor the “SB-1 discount” from 8:30 AM to 5 PM Monday-Friday EST. Second condition is that there will be no acceptance of any prescriptions for any “controlled substances” (such as narcotics, amphetamines, etc.) unless the original prescription is handed to the pharmacist by the customer at the pharmacy’s physical location [and provide proof of identity](provided above). However, the good news is that any customer presenting a physical prescription or picking up prescription medication at the pharmacy will receive an additional $5 off per prescription because the pharmacy is spared additional shipping, handling and related costs. Third condition is that there is an additional charge for mailing of $3 for the first prescription and $2 each for all other prescriptions mailed out in the same package to the lower 48 states. This includes a charge for delivery confirmation. The final condition is that the only acceptable methods of payment are either major credit card, US postal money order (made out to “Medical Center Pharmacy”), or cash. No insurance accepted.

I researched prescription prices and urge your readers to do so. The Medical Center Pharmacy is offering really great prices for genuine products. For the price of roughly a half tank of gas or two AR or AK mags, you can choose to have enough ciprofloxacin for anthrax exposure and not lose life-threatening time if your doctor agrees that you need to start a medication immediately.

Based on the response, there may be other group-buy style discounts and programs for other survival prescription medications available in the future. Why not compare the prices of all your current prescriptions with those offered under the “Discount Code SB-1”. Given the rural isolation of many SurvivalBlog readers and high gas prices, you have little to lose by prudent preparing, asking question, and price checks. The Medical Center Pharmacy reserves the right to increase the prices stated above after April 30, 2008. – Yorie in PA (a retired physician)

Odds ‘n Sods:

Our recent mention of Backwoods Home magazine‘ prompted reader RJV to note: “Don’t miss some of the gems from their [extensive] archives, such as this piece on do-it-yourself steam power.”

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Eric found this: Diesel thefts on the rise; demand increases for locking caps. Eric’s Comment: “As someone with a rebuilt diesel BOV that includes 70+ gallons of on-board diesel fuel I too am thinking about putting locking fuel filler caps on my truck. I also came across an interesting installable anti-siphon device that might be of interest to some.” JWR Adds: I generally discourage installing an anti-siphoning device, because you never know when you might need to siphon your our tank, post-SHTF. Also, locking fuel caps should only be installed on caps that are deep-set. If a thief can get a large pipe wrench on the cap, he most likely will, and thereby destroy the filler neck while prying off the locking cap.

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Reader Chris P. mentioned that readers might be interested in a deal that Sportsman”s Guide has going on for brand new 400 meter coils of military surplus field telephone wire for $30.

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Some folks in the mainstream media are finally seeing the big picture. From Fortune: Chaos on Wall Street–The big banks’ fear of big losses is threatening to bring down the entire system, with dire consequences for all of us. (A hat tip to Jim H. for the link.) Meanwhile, we read at Bloomberg: Brace for $1 Trillion Writedown of `Yertle the Turtle’ Debt. (Thanks to AB in Ohio, for finding that one.)

California court to reconsider home-school ruling

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

Sow seed-but let no tyrant reap;
Find wealth-let no impostor heap;
Weave robes-let not the idle wear;
Forge arms-in your defense to bear.
– Percy Bysshe Shelley, Song to the Men of England, 1819

Note from JWR:

If you find any SurvivalBlog articles or letters that you think would be of interest to your friends or relatives, just click on "Permalink" beneath any blog entry. Then you can copy and paste the URL from the displayed Permalinked page, and e-mail it. Many thanks!

News from Wall Street and Capitol Hill–The Mother Of All Bailouts Begins to Grow

Last week, the mainstream media described the latest expansion of the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB), but they politely refrained from calling this what it is: socialism, plain and simple. The grand plan, as it stands now, is to bail out not just consumer banks, but also investment banks, with taxpayer dollars. They are effectively making our life savings and our future earnings surety for a bunch of idiotic contrapreneurs‘ loans on everything from flat top duplexes to McMansions. These were houses that the contrapreneurs bought, that they could never really afford unless the market continued to rise at an artificial rate. They bought these houses with the intention of “flipping” them, but then the market topped out, and the “easy money” party ended.

At least those hated fascist dictators like Mussolini had the common sense to nationalize viable, productive companies. But now Ben Bernanke is busy nationalizing a slew of corporations with negative net worth. This is absolute lunacy!

Here are four examples of the mainstream’s view:

From The Washington Post: Fed Leaders Ponder an Expanded Mission.

From The New York Times: Treasury Dept. Seeks New U.S. Power to Keep Markets Stable

From Reuters: Treasury regulatory overhaul plan “timely”: Fed

And finally (with an ever-so-slightly more conservative view), this from Fox News: Bush Administration Proposes Sweeping Overhaul of Financial Regulation.

All of these calls for regulation, new government agencies, and greater scrutiny might outwardly sound well-reasoned, but they ignore some inescapable underlying problems: We have a fiat currency that is based on debt, we have a banking system with fictional fractional reserves, we have a derivatives market that is a $500 trillion casino, and we have a national treasury that is backed by wishful thinking–certainly not by anything tangible.

The other key point that seems to have escaped the mainstream media is that this new regulatory power is being handed to the Federal Reserve, which is a private banking cartel, not a government agency. They are no more “Federal” than the Federal Express parcel courier company. So this isn’t just socialism. This is nothing short of corporate-controlled socialism–where a handful of banking corporations are given access to the Federal tax coffers to bail out other institutions and then, even further, they are given sweeping regulatory powers. This power grab is deemed “necessary” by circumstances that the Federal Reserve itself created! Somewhere, somehow, somebody stands to make a lot of money in this process. Cui bono? I’ll wager that it won’t be the American taxpayers that benefit. As economist Mish Shedlock observes, this is like putting the Fox in Charge of the Henhouse. Mish summed up the current mess succinctly: “The biggest, most reckless credit experiment in history has started to implode. It’s far too late to stop a complete systemic collapse now. Granting new powers to the agency most responsible for the mess simply does not make any sense.”

Secrecy is another concern. In a recent e-mail, SurvivalBlog reader KAF commented: “We should be greatly concerned about the fact that the Federal Reserve has provided public release anonymity to the institutions who are taking ’30 day’ never ending loans. We’ll now never know if the institutions we deal with are truly solvent and credible, This new”confidentiality” allows the Fed. to manipulate reserves on a routine basis. We’ll never know if this country’s Federal Reserve is or is not heading for bankruptcy unless we use the tests of consumer spending and commodity pricing as indicators.” She hit the nail on the head. At the same time that the press is howling for “greater transparency” in banking, and writing exposes of “predatory lending practices”, the Powers That Be are drawing the veil of secrecy over lending institutions. They’d rather treat us like mushrooms–keeping us in the dark and feeding us barn waste–than risk a panic by letting the public know the real depth of the liquidity crisis and its collateral effects.

Instead of government platitudes, do you want some figures to chew on? Look at this Federal Reserve web page. The negative numbers at the bottom of the “Non-loaned Reserves” column speak volumes. Without the newly-created Federal Reserve “emergency lending mechanisms”, many banks would be absolutely bankrupt. As you can see, the bankers are swimming in red ink. There is now a huge risk of bank runs, but this threat is being ignored by the mainstream media. Mark my words: There are bank runs coming.

The fact is that the global lending system is essentially broken. Artificially lowering interest rates won’t fix it, when bankers are afraid to lend. As I’ve previously noted, the bankers are afraid to lend because so much re-packaging and reshuffling of debt has gone on in the past seven years that nobody knows who owes what to whom, and precisely what assets are underlying these exotic debt “packages.” Meanwhile, the bankers have learned that the big insurance firms like Fitch, Moody’s and S&P were in on the swindle. We now know that they colluded with their mortgage firm buddies to inflate assets and deflate risks in a masterpiece of legerdemain that would make Enron’s accountants proud.

The bottom line is the the entire world economy is is in deep, deep trouble. Without financing, the Big Machine is grinding to a halt. The next few years will probably see the economy plunge into a deep recession, if not a full blown depression. The current headlines are just a foreshadowing of the real crisis to come. The MOAB will grow and grow, eventually bailing out far more than just banks. There will be brokerage houses, insurance firms, S&Ls, credit unions, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, and possibly even muni bonds and pension funds are all lined up, ready to reach into our wallets. Once the government starts down the slippery slope of bailout-socialism schemes, they will perforce spread to more and more institutions. And, as I’ve previously noted, the public coffers will be insufficient to cover the inestimable costs of the MOAB. So this mean that Uncle Sam will monetize the difference. They’ll just create the needed “dollars” out of thin air. This will be outrageously inflationary, at all levels.

All of this is not going unnoticed by European and Asian bankers. They can see that the dollar is set for mass inflation, so they are dumping dollars as fast as they can. It is no wonder that the US Dollar Index has plummeted. When I last checked, it took $1.58 to buy one Euro! The foreign bankers aren’t stupid. Upcoming auctions of US Treasury paper will languish with very few takers. I predict that in less than a year, the Treasury yields will have to be pumped up substantially to attract enough bidders to get the needed financing to cover the budget deficit. We could see double digit rates–a la the late 1970s–in the not too distant future.

All of these macro-level implications might seem fairly abstract, so let me put them in real world terms and take the risk of extrapolating on some trends that I’ve observed: There will be a recession, and it will be deep, and long-lasting. A recession will mean that there will be some big corporate layoffs. Be ready. There will be bank runs and banking “holidays”. Be ready. There will be huge flows of “bailout” funds that will effectively nationalize many industries. Be ready. There will probably be a stock market collapse. Be ready. There will be a further collapse in residential real estate that will make the recent declines seem small, by comparison. Be ready. Credit delinquencies and foreclosures (on car loans, home loans, credit card bills, etc.) will dramatically increase. Be ready. There will be a collapse of the commercial real estate market. Be ready. Even though the credit available for IPOs and private mergers and acquisitions has dried up, there will be news of some large and seemingly inexplicable acquisitions in the near future, all sanctioned by and in some cases, underwritten by, and even funded by, the Federal government. Be ready. There will be shortages of key commodities including fuel and food. Be ready. Strapped for cash, America’s highway, rail, water, sewer, telecommunications, and power infrastructures will degenerate. Be ready. There will be mass inflation of the US Dollar that will devalue any dollar denominated investments. Be ready.

And now, to further extrapolate, (with a lower level of confidence): All of the aforementioned economic dislocation and surging inflation might trigger mass protests, riots, looting, and arson in the cities. Be ready. There may then be massive out-migration from the cities. Be ready. Wars have been known to follow close on the heels of depressions and financial crises, so there may be a war, possibly big enough to require another draft. Be ready.

As I’ve written many times before, the real lynchpin to worry about is the power grid. If the grid goes down, then all bets are off. Be vigilant, be well-stocked with a deep larder, and be self-sufficient. Store extra for charity. If you can afford to, establish a survival retreat in a lightly-populated region, and if possible, live there year-round.

Lessons From Fiction–A Critique of “I Am Legend”, by Michael Z. Williamson

I finally had a chance to see [the 2007 movie] “I Am Legend“, and analyzed it as a writer, and from a technical perspective.

I’ve seen a lot of discussion over his [use of a] M4 [Carbine as his primary weapon]. I have to say for that type of fighting, I’d prefer a shotgun. However, a shotgun doesn’t reload fast enough. He might be better off with a good .308 self-loading carbine, if he can find adequate soft-point ammo. In New York City, that’s unlikely. National Guard armories would only have ball ammo, and likely wouldn’t have anything other than standard duty weapons. Add in that he was likely at least familiarized with the M4 as a military surgeon and officer, I think the M4 was about the best practical choice under the circumstances, though inadequate. Lesson: Obviously, for those preparing for any of various disasters, this is a reminder to plan ahead.

Much is made of his OPSEC, including bleaching his footsteps to kill scents. What isn’t discussed is how he hides the scent of fuel for his generators, or the exhaust smell. Also, this is supposed to be three years after the disaster struck. How does he hide his tracks in winter, with snow? This would likely necessitate long stays inside. Lesson: Obviously, that would mean more preparations. You may have to bunker down due to weather or other events.

The steel shutters and reinforcements on the building don’t extend above the ground floor. This is an obvious failure point. His armory also should not have been in one closet, but in multiple locations, possibly the central stairwell, on each floor. Lesson: A point source failure of any resource–food, weapons, water, medicine, fuel–can kill you. Diversify your preparations.

One of the character’s critical intel flaws is failing to note that: he and the “Dark seekers” have overlapping territories, and their search methods are as precise and professional as his. We see him searching a building that has already been stripped of food, but there is no extraneous damage or vandalism. This was a key item that his enemy were not mindless and irrational, but rather very organized and intelligent. There are other events that indicate this, and he missed them, too. Obviously, he was emotionally reluctant to consider human attributes remaining in people so sick and damaged. Never underestimate your opponent, and always remember that from his point of view, he is correct and you are in the wrong. It may not be possible to understand his point of view, but the attempt must be made.

There are several signs that his own rationality is slipping. Obviously, talking to mannequins and creating scenes with them is a coping mechanism. However, herding deer with a sports car and attempting to take potshots might be a thrill, but a dangerous one. Likewise, when he loses Sam, his dog, his vengeful actions almost get him killed for no gain. His character did a great many things to maintain himself–a regular schedule, replaying old news and movies, interaction with his dog, but ultimately, we are a social creature and cannot operate alone. This is also driven home when he is trapped. Consider that other disasters or accidents are possible, too–broken limbs, car failures. Lesson:Plan to be part of a team, with organization and training. Do this before disaster strikes.

Besides the deer, we see lions, presumably escaped from a zoo. We don’t see any transformed wildlife, but knowing dogs and rats did, it’s reasonable to assume others did. This is a massive potential threat. The metabolic issues in this scenario might have meant transformed predators are not viable long term, due to massive food demands, but in the short term, one could create a tremendous amount of damage, or infect an entire herd of deer. In addition, while there are lots of supplies he can loot in the short term, apart from a small garden patch, there is little space for food or material production. Lesson: A city is a consumer, not a producer, of base resources. It is not the place for a long-term base in such a scenario.

Conversely, the character did well by operating from a central location, keeping records and charts, performing regular patrols and intel sweeps, operating in a scientific fashion, attempting to contact others, holding to a regular schedule, acquiring resources, keeping fit, and demonstrating generally good fire discipline and caution. Lesson: Even the best, most prepared individual can make mistakes. Constantly review your scenarios and preparations, and have someone else do so, too. – Michael Z. Williamson