Odds ‘n Sods:

Sam M. sent us this: CIBC Economist: $100 Oil by End of ’08–Expert: Oil Prices Set to Hit $100 by End of ’08, and Will Likely Stay at Triple-Digit Level. Perhaps the “alarmist” Peak Oil crowd was not far from the mark.

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A hat tip to Ben L. for forwarding us this article link: Tamiflu may create resistant bird flu

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The folks at SHTF Daily linked to a great primer on sound, specie-backed money being replaced by fiat currency: The Rule of Planned Money

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Chuck suggested ED-Day–Dead Sydney, an online Avian Influenza Pandemic survival novel from Australia, presently being posted in installments. It seems nicely done, thusfar. Be forewarned that there is some foul language. I will also be posting this is the Survival Fiction section of my Links Page.

Letter Re: Underground Storm/Fallout/Vault Shelters

Jim,
You know we respect you. You’re at the top of the survivalist food chain because of your relevant knowledge and for your impeccable integrity. Those qualities draw respectful, serious readers to SurvivalBlog, and their contributions, in turn, to the cause of preparedness and your blog’s content are first rate as well.

Needless to say, we’re very pleased that Safecastle is associated with you and can help sponsor the work you’re doing for the folks of this nation.

You know that Safecastle is all about crisis preparedness. For most folks, they know us by our Buyers Club (that club ad is prominently displayed on your blog site). We try to find and offer most any quality product our customers need in the way of preps at the lowest margins possible. The bottom line though in my book, is that any preparation people can put in place has to be a good thing. In fact, I believe simply developing the attitude of wanting to be prepared gets a person more mileage than just about any other step they can take in that direction.

Anyway, there has been some recent dialog here about various methods of constructing storm and fallout shelters. Shelters and civil defense are my greatest passions. I suppose that goes back to my days as a point-blank Cold Warrior when the need for such threat protection was more globally recognized than it is today.

As the proprietor of Safecastle Shelters, I feel a need to try to correct a few impressions that some may have drawn by comments posted here. I’ll keep it brief and focused on our products, since I did already comment about the idea for using shipping containers as the basis for a shelter.

1. Safecastle’s shelter business consists of custom fabricating steel-plate Storm Shelters, Fallout Shelters, and Safe Rooms. They are all engineered to withstand winds of 330 mph. Our builder has installed something on the order of 500 shelters and saferooms all over the USA in the last 15 years, to include about 100 for FEMA.

2. Our primary business these days is in Fallout Shelters. In fact, right now, we are busier than we have ever seen the business. I suppose you can reach your own conclusions about why that might be. Suffice it to say, we are seeing more and more shelters being built by some knowledgeable, wealthy and/or powerful folks.

3. Our Fallout Shelters are installed underground 99% of the time. (Yes, we can berm up adequate shielding over an above-ground shelter if need be). We can even install below the water table–though we prefer not to. Our shelters are fully double welded and double seal coated to create a structure that is impervious to moisture penetration. The use of magnesium anodes greatly extends the life of the shelters, significantly reducing the natural pace of corrosion on the outside surfaces. Simply put, our shelters are dry as a bone inside. (In a few rare instances, there is the possibility of condensation forming on the underside of the hatch if that hatch is exposed to the elements and the sun, and we do have a fix for that.) No sump pump is ever needed due to groundwater penetration.

4. Our shelters are designed by state-certified structural engineers to last 90 years in most environments. We offer a lifetime warranty on workmanship and structural integrity.

5. A comment or two on the use of cylindrical steel culvert for shelters: They are very strong and an excellent basis for DIY sheltering. They are engineered for subterranean forces. But if you are doing it yourself, be careful when cutting and welding in that enclosed environment. Be sure your area is well-ventilated as you work. Also, for commercially available culvert-based shelters, they are normally high-margin products for the seller. In other words, be sure to comparison shop. (Hint, hint). A big obvious point to consider is the amount of usable living space in a cylinder as opposed to a six-sided structure.

6. We’re coming out with a new brochure in the next week or so along with a few new offerings and features, to include a standard-sized, above-ground storm shelter that we can offer on a lease-to-own basis. We also now are offering a drive-in storm shelter for those who want to protect their vehicles, and safety-glass windows for those who want to watch Dorothy, Toto, and the Wicked Witch fly by from the comfort and safety of their well-anchored shelter.

Jim, one more thing … I might as well use this opportunity to politely differ with one of your main premises about everyone aiming to move to Montana or Idaho to escape coming dark days. You have clearly stated that such an event is only a possibility, and I agree with that. Still, I would go so far as to point out that different measures are appropriate for different people. Preparedness can be done seriously and very well wherever folks find themselves. And wherever folks find themselves, they can always do something more or better to improve their survivability for endless potential scenarios.

The real objective should be personal peace of mind. That should always be attainable. The apocalypse may never get here while we are still around, so to simply be ready, satisfied, and optimistic should be a nice consolation. 😉

Keep up the great work! – Vic

JWR Replies: I didn’t mean to denigrate all underground shelters. I have seen many marginal designs over the years that have leaked, especially in areas with high water tables. Many of the commercial in-home “vaults” and “shelters” are little more than beefed-up traditional basements. And those are the ones that typically leak.

I noticed that the Utah Shelter pricing is higher than yours per cubic foot. I consider your shelters superior in most respects to theirs, including more efficient use of space, versus a cylindrical pipe. (Cylinders are inherently inefficient for shelving, storage, and bed space.)

Letter Re: “ZIPSkinny”–A Tool for Gathering Intelligence on Potential Retreat Locales

Greetings Jim,
Here is a link for gathering statistical intelligence on an area one may want to relocate to for a retreat or to use to plot an escape route. This site gives a quick thumbnail reference of demographics, economic and social indicators etc. for further research or to locate areas to avoid that you may not be familiar with. Plug in the ZIP code for the area of interest and you will get information on the area as well as adjacent area ZIP codes along with an additional tool to compare up to twenty other ZIP codes of your choice. This site is under Beta testing and so far with areas I am familiar with it is accurate. Perhaps it will be expanded to include more information. Stay safe, – The Rabid One

Two Letters Re: Betavoltaic Batteries

Jim,
Here is an article describing the challenges associated with betavoltaic batteries. The recent buzz over the 30 year battery, while intriguing, is overly optimistic. As stated in the article I linked to, betavoltaics currently have low efficiency, require heavy shielding, and the energy absorption media tends to degrade due to the high energy bombardment. I think it would be great if they could overcome these issues, but it looks like it may be 30 years before we see anything like a 30 year battery. – Mark D. in Utah

Mr Rawles,
Firstly I would like to say that after recently having found your site, I now read it daily. Thank you for all your hard work. Hopefully I will be able to meet the 10 Cent Challenge in the next few weeks.
Regarding the 30 year battery and betavoltaics, there are many basic problems with such a battery design. I am not an expert in this field, however the article does make some amount of sense on a fundamental level. I wouldn’t hold your breath for a 30 year battery any time soon. Sincerely, – Derek from New York City (God help me)

Weekly Survival Real Estate Market Update

Realities and Compromises While Retreat Shopping
Over the summer I was blessed to meet a lot of fellow SurvivalBlog readers here in north Idaho. Most, if not all, made several drastic changes to their retreat shopping list either during or right after their trip here. Most notably, the changes made most often were: Distance to a sizeable town/economic base, the parcel size (acres), and access to the parcel.

It’s important to realize that once you take in the enormity of the locale you have chosen to relocate to that these factors become the number one issue in a search. There are many superb retreats here and elsewhere in your region of choice but realize that in between now and when TSHTF you must live a semi-normal lifestyle. If this means that your mate is 15 minutes from Costco and the hair salon then so be it. If I were a marriage counselor I would strongly advise against the ‘super tactical retreat in the boonies’ if your wife has issues with it. Practical is as important as tactical when it comes to living your daily life before TSHTF.

I want to reinforce to those men out there that although sitting on your porch sipping your morning coffee while overlooking your interlocking fields of fire on your 40 acre retreat 45 minutes from the nearest paved road is cool and all, but it may just be better to envision the same thing taking place on your 5 acre retreat 15 minutes from a ‘larger than you would have thought you’d live near’ town.

Look folks, there are those of you out there that would be happy to just get out of the locale you are living in, let alone worry about finding the ‘super bunker retreat’ in the boonies, and you’re right, if you can figure a way out then just do it. When you think about it, even if you could only ’take your existing house on a postage stamp lot in the suburbs and trade it for the same exact property in a free locale, would you do it? Would you do it if you still had to deal with a Homeowner’s Association (HOA)? How desperate are you? Is it all worthwhile if you can just escape so you can stop waking up each morning with that dull pain in your chest because you know your living in the middle of a foreign landscape? Is it worthwhile if you can still live close to the lifestyle you’re accustomed to but were legally able to purchase and stockpile certain items that were banned in your locale? Just because you can’t buy that super retreat does not mean you can’t do anything at all. How much longer will you allow the boots of tyranny to smother you in your present locale? These are all questions that I asked myself thousands of times over two years until I snapped and just made the move. I had a client here recently that was uncomfortable at our local shooting range when I took him shooting because he realized that in the locale where he currently lived, we would have been arrested for even possessing such weapons let alone driving up to a ‘self-supervised’ range on the side of the highway to shoot. I knew exactly what he was going through. Been there, done that and escaped!

Speaking of reality, do you really need that 40 acre retreat? Of course, but the reality of the situation is that you are still there, so if it takes duplicating all the nice amenities you live with now in suburbia and transfer those items to your free locale so your marriage stays intact and your mate does not ‘loose it’ from culture shock, then you ought to consider it. Also, the access road should not be a four wheel drive only road or a snowmobile in winter road, as your mate, unless properly prepared and motivated, will most likely hang you out to dry, have fun with that.

Now, the issue of actual acreage. We are blessed with 10 acres on our retreat and let me tell you, it is a lot of work. The animals aside, just the upkeep on the trails we have throughout the property is enough to make me thankful we don’t have 80 acres! Unless you plan to till the ground outside of your regular organic gardening or building a bunch of structures for family or refugee then anything I’d say over twenty will be a bit much for the average city folk moving to the sticks. It may sound cool to say you have 80 acres but unless you need it for tactical or farming reasons, then you ought to reconsider. There are no tea parties in the country and nobody is impressed or really cares about how much ground you have and most likely they’ll have more land than need you anyway.

Not everyone out there is cut out to make a drastic lifestyle change within 30 days, we did, but we had prepared and prayed about it for several years and then made our move. Trust me; I was used to my granite counter tops, manicured lawns and concrete sidewalks. My wife transitioned easily but I was still flabbergasted that our ‘mud room’ really was one. (I had thought it was just a storage place for my cases of ammo), and contained mud off my shoes before we put gravel down on the driveway last spring. In addition, the fact that my wife actually had no issues walking out the door to slaughter 15 chickens one morning, then walked back in and ate breakfast. I’ll be the first to admit even as a former U.S. Marine I was a bit taken back by what real living was all about. I missed going to the local high class food market for nicely wrapped chicken cordon bleu ready to bake.

Just think back 150 years and learn the skills you need to know to live in that era, then either practice them regularly or just go ‘off grid’ on your retreat, but either way realize that you’ll need to make compromises in order to have your mate comfortable with making The Big Move.

If you and your mate are totally on the same page and properly motivated then by all means buy that super tactical retreat and you’ll have more fun than you can imagine working on your property day to day. But, please be prepared to make compromises while shopping for your retreat. It will spare your marriage and keep your real estate agent sane, and I’m certain they would appreciate that!
Remember: research and pray! For His Kingdom – T.S.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Pending Home Sales Index Hits Record Low

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From Newsweek‘s Daniel Gross: There’s No Inflation (If You Ignore Facts)

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Green Mountain Gear has found a limited supply of some more original German HK91/G3 alloy magazines. This new batch is in new-in-the-wrapper condition. These are in the original factory wrappers, with factory labels and anti-corrosion paper strips on the followers. (Just as they left the factory in the 1960s.) They don’t come any better than this.

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DV and David L. both suggested this article: Dollar’s double blow from Vietnam and Qatar

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Your food stamps will be stopped effective March 1992 because we received notice that you passed away. May God bless you. You may reapply if there is a change in your circumstances." – Letter from the Department of Social Services, Greenville, South Carolina

Note from JWR:

After my recent gun show trip to Montana, I have added a few new items to my catalog page, including a scarce special order takedown Winchester Model 1894 .30-30 short rifle that was made in 1896, and a scarce special order 5″ barrel S&W Safety Hammerless (“Lemon Squeezer”) Third Model .38 S&W revolver that was made around 1891. For residents of most of the United States, both of these antique guns can be shipped directly to your doorstep, with no FFL paperwork!

Letter Re: Why Physical Gold Versus Gold Stocks?

Mr. Editor:

Why on earth do you place such a strong emphasis on gold “in hand” as opposed to gold [mining] stocks? From what I’ve read, gold may soon double or triple [in price], but gold mining stocks like Barrick and Newmont are set to go up 5x to 7x. I think that you’ll be missing the boat as this bull market in [precious] metals continues. I feel sorry for you, pal. – Pete in Tampa

JWR Replies: I recommend buying (and personally holding) physical gold rather than gold stocks for three reasons: safety, safety, and safety:

The first “safety” is protection from a collapse in the dollar. Mining stocks are denominated in dollars, not ounces of gold or silver. So if the dollar is ever wiped out as a currency unit, then I know that I’ll be safe. I’ll have it in my personal possession, safe and sound.

The second “safety” is from mining company management stupidity. Ever since the early 1980s, the major gold mining companies have built up a large backlog of over the counter derivatives–commonly called their “hedge book” of forward sales. (This started when gold prices were chronically weak, back in the late 1980s and early 1990s.) Although many of the hedged position have been eliminated (“unwound”), there are still millions of ounces of gold that have “sold forward” at promised prices below $320 per ounce. In some cases this forward selling will account for more than 50% of their next five years of production. What will happen if gold zooms up to $1,500 per ounce? The miners will be stuck. They will still have to fulfill those forward sales contracts at the promised prices. Presumably they can add extra production shifts, but because of their hedging, their profitability will suffer, even when gold is going sky high. So if you are buying any gold stocks, first do your homework and only buy stocks from companies that have a small hedge boo, or better yet no hedging whatsoever.

The third “safety” is from social turmoil. In a major economic cataclysm (“WTSHTF“) all paper assets will be wiped out–even mining stocks. For that reason, I recommend that individual investors have a core holding of at least one $1,000 face value bag of pre-1965 circulated US 90% “junk” silver coinage per family member. This is for use in barter in the event of major depression. After you have that silver in hand, then you might consider some “paper” gold or silver mining investments.

I realize that all of the foregoing is an ultraconservative approach to precious metals investing. And I also acknowledge that I might miss out on some potential big gains. But I’m just an ultraconservative kinda guy.

Letter Re: Advice on Finding a Preparedness-Minded Spouse

Dear JWR,
I am a middle-aged female, single and have no children. I recently relocated to an area that I believe to be “safer” than where I had been living previously. I had hoped to meet others who were awake to the realities of life once I settled here, but much to my disappointment and amazement the natives seem to be “clueless.”

So I find myself in a very difficult if not dangerous situation. I may likely find myself alone when the SHTF. I have searched endlessly for a message board or the like in which I could communicate with others who have a similar interest, but to no avail. I know that there must be many others who share my concern about being alone when the time comes. I have a tremendous amount to contribute in many ways and I don’t give up easily either.

Do you have any resources or ideas that you would share? Thank you in advance for your time and consideration! Sincerely, – Beth

JWR Replies: I recommend this site previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, as well as the Country Singletree Forum at Homesteading Today. Use the same precautions that you would with any other online dating service. Proceed with prayer.

Letter Re: Underground Storm/Fallout/Vault Shelters

Mr. Rawles:
Utah Shelter Systems sells pre-fab shelters built inside culvert pipe. At $38,000 for a 10×25 pipe based shelter, it’s not cheap but it is a complete solution including two entrance/exit ways with blast doors, ventilation, bunks, shelving, lighting, and so on. The bunks, flooring system, and other furnishings all seem designed to maximize storage space. – BR

JWR Replies: There are a number of approaches for hard shelters that work well. Buried galvanized culvert pipe shelters are just one of them. Other folks say that they like underground poly or steel tanks, while others insist on reinforced concrete. Good drainage is essential, regardless of where you live. In areas with high water tables, I highly recommend aboveground reinforced concrete shelters, such as those made by Safecastle. I realize that there are indeed below-ground shelters that can be built in those areas with a supplemental sump pump. But after all, our view of the future here at SurvivalBlog includes the prospect of extended periods without grid power.

Letter Re: Digitized Data for Your Bug-Out Bag

James:

JN is absolutely right about TrueCrypt, it’s an excellent tool. Be aware, however, that you can be compelled to disclose your encryption keys in the UK legally, and you can always be compelled to do so via extra-legal means. If you have any data that you truly wish to keep secret, a good start is to use a second TrueCrypt volume containing important data inside the primary volume which contains
data that is less crucial. Regards, – PH

Odds ‘n Sods:

The Chartist Gnome chided me in a recent e-mail, after I had mentioned that after having dropped decisively through the 80 level: “Some analysts suggest 75 or perhaps even 72 as the next support level for the US Dollar Index.” He said that I was being overly optimistic. By his calculations, “the next logical support level for the USD Index is 72 and then if that fails to hold, we can expect a step off the cliff with no support until 42.” Lest you think that this is some wild-eyed exaggeration, Jordan Roy-Byrne (editor of The Trendsman) came up with almost identical numbers. (Namely, 72 and 40 support levels.) Gulp! A USD Index level of 42 would equate to around $2.75 to buy a Euro and $4.02 to buy a British pound. As The Memsahib is fond of saying: “Good thing that there’s no inflation.”

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The next frontier for battery technology: betavoltaics: Scientists Invent 30 Year Continuous Power Laptop Battery 

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The folks at Ready Made Resources report that their home biodiesel production systems are now shipping. How about a cost of just 67 cents per gallon to produce biodiesel?

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RBS recommended this free e-book on the 1929 stock market crash and its aftermath: The Greatest Bull Market In History