The Coming Hard Times–Wake Up Call!, by Dr. T.

I am writing this essay with a bit of trepidation. I do not want to make you think I am an expert on anything, but I do think a lot and have spent a lot of time studying the economy. Mr. Rawles can verify that my education and training are as follows — I am in the medical profession and also an attorney. I am also in the Air National Guard, after spending many years in the Army Reserve. I was deployed in 2003-04, primarily to Kuwait, but also made trips to Iraq, Qatar, and Djibouti. I also spent most of 1997 in Bosnia.
My concern is that most of the friends and relatives that I have, think preparing for hard times is like taking a weekend camping trip. I am working diligently to get peoples’ attention, as this is so far from what I see coming. Due to my work as an attorney, I have spent considerable time helping clients invest money in non-traditional arenas. Because of this, I have been exposed to two or three people who have studied this extensively. One of them calls the coming trouble “The Big Rollover.”
Ray’s essay a few days ago was very good — the decision-making process is important and most of us never stop to consider it at all. The same is true about the Big Rollover – how many of us stop to really think about what is coming? Oh, I know, you read “Patriots”, but in the back of your mind you think that that could not really happen. I am here to tell you that you might be right, but you might also be way off! Well, maybe not, but what will you do if the bank you go to locks up your account? I have clients that are dealing with this right now! Have any ideas what you can do when the grocery store is out of food? What about fresh bread and milk? How often do you go to Wally World? They use the Just In Time (JIT) delivery system, too, and will have empty shelves just as quickly as local stores.
What will you do when you are notified that your pension fund is bankrupt, gone forever? It happened to thousands of people in my area due to the Enron scandal a few years ago. How long will social insecurity last? Your guess is probably better than mine.
I am just like all the rest of you — I hope and pray that this does not come as quickly or as severely as some people are saying. But, what can you do? I will give you some ideas, take them or leave them:
1. Become fanatical about saving money and stocking up on anything that will store for a long time. Get it organized, and labeled, and learn to manage it well.
2. Be quiet about this and find a way to do this without calling attention to yourself.
3. Think about the failure of the power grid and what you will do if you are out of electricity for a long time — maybe months or years. Gensets, fuel, wind generators, solar collectors are all great, but think about what you will do to keep your windows blacked out if you are the only one with electricity. Talk about a lure for looters. Watch out!
4. Learn to speed read – I have way too much to read, but try to spend one to two hours everyday reading and learning all I can.
5. Make sure you have some extra beds – even if you have to put them in the garage or barn. We already have an adult child and her husband living with us due to a bad landlord, and it does change the dynamics of your household.
6. Learn to garden — find someone who has some dirt and learn to grow vegetables and fruit (BTW, my dearly beloved tomatoes are fruit). Go to www.seedsavers.org and www.gardeningrevolution.com — both good sites and there are other sites out there, too. Eat what you grow and learn how to store it – can, freeze, dry, vacuum pack it or whatever else you can figure out how to do. Also, learn to save seeds. This may actually save your life during the coming trouble.
7. Become an active member of a relatively small local church. If you do not understand this, you are in serious trouble.
8. If you cannot control your addiction to television, throw it out or give it away. I am not kidding.
9. Learn to fix everything you can. If you do not have a knack for fixing things, get to work and learn all you can. This is not an option. When doing this, stock up on parts and supplies for everything you own or want to own.
10. Buy things that will last a long time. I am driving a 20-year old Mercedes Benz now that is in great shape. How many other cars last this long? I can keep it for at least ten more years, but may buy a newer one to last for the next 15 to 20 years of bad times.
11. Make things last longer. I just received back my first knife that a man in Omaha froze to near absolute zero. A friend has been using a disposable razor to shave her legs for a year now with the same treatment. Others surely know about this type of process, but it seems to be truly amazing. And, I am quite a fan of German engineering.
12. Everything I own has synthetic or semi-synthetic oil in it, and has for the past 20 years. I am also putting Cermax® in everything that burns oil products – it somehow embeds a two micron layer of ceramic into the metal. And, Cermax® is cheap – I think the price is $29.95 or soon will be $39.95 for each treatment of two ounces. Go to www.cermatechnology.com and look around — you may have to register (free, no obligation) and if you do, my ID is 10075, which they ask for to create an account. I love Amsoil® products, but they are very expensive. I am growing very fond of Schaeffer® oil products – www.schaefferoil.com is their site.
13. Decide what to do about medical issues and medications. Learn to live without doctors and drugs. I know this will irritate some people on this site, but these people are the ones who have issues. The medical care system is just about ready to implode, in my opinion, so avoid it as much as you can and when you cannot, develop relationships to help you. Think outside the box – I am very biased, but I have found that some of the best medical thinkers are veterinarians, dentists, and nurses.
14. In spite of my passionate dislike for television, we are stocking up on clothes, books (www.half.com), movies, toys for our grandchildren, board games, outdoor games, and more.
15. Learn not to be too imperialistic. I am the head of my household, but I am not a dictator. I am a fairly high ranking officer in the guard, and have to be careful when I come home from duty times, not to bark too many orders! But, in the changing dynamics of our economy and our families, someone has to be in charge in every situation and to be a good leader, you also need to know how to take orders yourself, at times.
16. Be careful about what you eat. The big food companies do not actually put the true ingredients on many labels and we now consume so much processed food it is frightening. Try to not go to the store more than once a week, then once a month. What will you do if this is the actual scenario that comes in a couple of years? How long will you survive if you cannot get to the store? I have heard it said that you can live three minutes without air, three days without water and three weeks without food.
17. One of the large, untapped markets in America, in my opinion, is growing and selling organic fruits and vegetables. Go to the above link, www.gardeningrevolution.com and see how you can spend a few hundred dollars and get one, two, or three of Len Pense’s raised beds operational (cost $417.00 each plus the cement blocks, plus shipping or transportation) and grow lots of crops you can sell. Then, in the coming years it costs about $50.00 per raised bed per year to maintain them. Also, I am working on a patent for a plant breeder, who has a couple of special tomatoes that sell in his area (Washington state) for $3.95 to as high as $6.95 a pound. In my area, if I can get $2.00 to $3.00 a pound, I would do well. You may not become a trillionaire, but you can make some decent money and won’t starve in the process. Mr. Pense does not use any soil, so his crops are 100% organic and free of weeds and bacteria (e.g. E. Coli H0157). I can put you in touch with the tomato breeder and you can grow these plants directly from the seeds. I am a privacy freak, but you can email gotrocks@safe-mail.net and I will contact you.
18. Another great way to make some money is by growing dirt-raised chickens. See this site – www.acresusa.com/events/events.htm – the information about Polyface Farm Intensive Farming methods are very intriguing. I receive $90.00 per acre per year from the chemical farmer who farms the dirt here in the midwest. If I can turn one acre into $1,500 per year of profit, even with a bit of work, that is very tempting. The big key looks to me like it is marketing the product, but this may not be as hard as one thinks initially.
In the summer of 1929, in northwest Kansas, where I was born, my maternal grandfather (who passed away three months before I was born) bought a farm on a handshake. A few weeks later he told my grandmother, whom I knew well and did not pass away until I was 30 years old, that he thought he should go pay for this farm. He made a trip to a bank in a nearby Nebraska town, just a few miles north of their farm. He got the money out of this bank, which nearly depleted his account, and paid for the farm and recorded the deed in the courthouse. A few weeks later, along came October 29, 1929, and you know what happened.
Well, my grandmother told me several times how much they benefited because during the Great Depression they had this farm bought and paid for, but the bank where the money was eventually closed, and their account would have been totally lost. This farm is still owned by one of my cousins, and every time I drive by it I think about this lesson.
I think you should have some cold, hard greenbacks stored up, just for emergencies. And, have some gold and silver, because we may need them for barter before you know it. Pay off your debts as fast as you can. And, if you cannot, rotate your debts to protect yourself as much as possible.
One advisor says “you cannot be too wealthy going into the Big Rollover, ” and he is probably right. I am not sure where it is safe to store money now – I think JWR is probably right, it is better to buy stuff, than have money in a bank. But, now this takes some big changes in our thinking. My clients, for the most part, have a comfort level with money and this comfort level is almost always related to their bank account balance.
A good web site to go belongs to Harry Dent, who has written several good books about the coming trouble and he is using demographics to map out what he sees coming. He says that the downturn will start in 2009 or 2010. At Dent’s site there is a 15 page report dated October 31, 2006, that is pretty good reading.
Acres USA is a very good magazine for organic farming and gardening.
An adviser whom I trust a lot, says that late 2008 to early 2009, will start the trouble. He describes 16 major forces converging in this time frame that all affect our economy. He says, correctly, that it is not possible to accurately predict the timing nor the severity, that you need to be prepared as much as you can.
I have six rules for clients who invest money and these are not optional:
1. Diversify
2. Diversify
3. Diversify
4. Make Your Money Work For You
5. Spend Less Than You Earn & Earn More Than You Spend
6. The Most Important Things In Life Cannot Be Bought Nor Sold With Money
So, in conclusion, wake up and smell the coffee – trouble is brewing, and I do not have all the answers, but I do know that we need to be prepared for years of living without many or even most of the conveniences we have all become accustomed to having without even thinking about how it happens!
My list of ideas is not complete nor exhaustive. Actually, I am of the opinion that preparation is a work in progress and for many it is a complete lifestyle change.
I am an optimist – my parents were both born during the Great Depression and their families survived, but since then, in America, we have become fat, lazy and stupid. We will survive this one, too!
Keep thinking!

Letter Re: Ammunition Prices in the Future?

Jim,
I followed the link today about ammo production declines. Do you have any idea how this may effect pricing to the public? I hear from some folks that they expect ammo prices to drop as more of the stockpile hits the market after the (hopeful) end of hostilities in Iraq, et cetera. I wondered if you had an opinion of how things may evolve. Thanks, – Jason in Idaho

JWR Replies: I expect ammo prices to remain high, and in fact continue to climb as long as global commodities prices–especially copper and lead–remain high. The world’s credit markets are clearly starting to tighten, which will eventually slide the global economy into recession, or perhaps even depression. It will not be until after the wheels of industry slow considerably that commodities prices will weaken. Then, and only then, will ammo prices start to level off, and perhaps come down a bit.

You must consider that all of the world’s paper currencies are continuing to inflate on average at around 4% annually, as a baseline. That means that there is no longer such thing as reversion to “the old prices.” Unless governments choose the painful path and opt for deflation, prices will never go down. Far more likely they will opt for the painless (in their perspective) path, and inflate their way out of their economic problems. Inflation is an insidious hidden form of taxation that gradually robs the citizenry of their buying power, and makes their savings worth less and less. Governments can inject massive liquidity, at will, by adjusting central bank interest rates. This creates billions of electronic Dollars, Yen, and Euros. They can also print as much paper currency as they’d like. Our current Federal Reserve Chairman has publicly said that he’d drop money from helicopters, if need be, to stop deflation. (Which earned him the derisive nickname “Helicopter Ben.”)

It is noteworthy that the article mentioned the government’s average cost for a round of rifle ammunition was around 35 cents–and that is with the “economies of scale” of producing 2+ million rounds per day! With the current high cost of commodities, commercial ammo makers would be hard pressed to match that. To put things in perspective, 35 cents per round equates to $7 per box of 20 cartridges. (The “cost per 20” is the measure by which most Americans gauge ammo prices.) Again, $7 is the government’s cost. In the civilian world, there are both wholesale and retail markups before most products make their way into the hands of the buying public. With those markups in mind, and continuing currency inflation in mind, I don’t expect the retail price of any newly produced .308 ball to ever drop below 50 cents a round again. The recent large “dumps” of Australian and South African military surplus ammo were made at scrap metal prices–based on the commodities prices of three to five years ago. Those days are gone. In the current context, those surplus sales were essentially aberrations, made because those nations no longer fielded significant numbers of 7.62 mm NATO (.308) rifles. I don’t think that we’ll see that sort of largesse very often again in the future.Yes, perhaps after the multinational deployment in Iraq winds down, there might be some batches of surplus ammo from foreign governments that hit the market. But keep in mind that the US government only releases surplus ammo through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program and through the DoD’s Civilian Marksmanship Program (CMP). The CMP prices are tightly controlled, so as not to cause market volatility, and ostensibly to protect the taxpayers’ original investment. (Read: They rarely release surplus ammo at bargain prices.)

The bottom line: Whenever you find inexpensive, high quality, common caliber ammunition available at a gun show or at a gun shop, jump on it! Some dealers have been slow at re-pricing their inventories to reflect their increased replacement cost, so take advantage of this. It is better than money in the bank. In this age of pernicious inflation, investing in tangibles makes sense. And, as previously noted in SurvivalBlog, common caliber ammunition will make a great barter item in the event of a currency collapse. Just be sure to store your “ballistic wampum” in good quality metal ammo cans with no interior rust and nice soft seals. Oh yes, and be sure to toss a small packet of silica gel in each can to absorb the ambient air moisture. Stored that way, modern ammunition will still be “sure fire” for 70+ years. A decade from now, you’ll be very glad that you had the foresight to stock up. Parenthetically, I’m already thankful for the thousands of rounds of ammo that I bought back in the late 1980s and early 1990s–back when both .223 and .308 ball could be had for as little as $3.50 per box. (And some of that .308 was the outstanding West German ball. I just wish that I had bought 10 cases!) All those ammo cans are still stacked up on the shelves down in the JASBORR. I consider it all money in the bank and potentially meat on the table.

Perhaps three or four decades from now, your grandchildren will be considered “wealthy” because of your modest investment.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Can the real Constitution be restored? Probably not. Too many Americans depend on government money under programs the Constitution doesn’t authorize, and money talks with an eloquence Shakespeare could only envy. Ignorant people don’t understand The Federalist Papers, but they understand government checks with their names on them.” – Joseph Sobran

Note from JWR:

Don’t miss out on the special $99.95 sale for my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. This is the first time that it has ever been sold for 1/3 off the regular price. The sale ends on August 8th, so place your order soon!

Letter Re: Garage/Shelter for RVs as a Retreat Option?

Jim-
A few days back a contributor asked about hardening up her mobile home. That reminded me of a plan I have been considering over the last couple of years. This might work for those who can’t relocate now to their retreat.
I was motivated to write because I just saw a news report of a family offering a considerable reward for the recovery of their ATVs which had been stolen from their vacation cabin.[My idea is to] develop a retreat location with:
1. A water supply and septic tank and [leach] field (all disguised, to discourage squatters.)
2. Underground filled and disguised propane and/or diesel and/or gasoline tanks
3. A triple-wide garage that will house an Recreational Vehicle (RV). The garage can be built to withstand armed attack as you laid out for the mobile home. And of course it should be constructed as to be invulnerable to squatters (no windows or doors, but framed for easy cutout after you arrive). It should be plumbed and wired for easy hookup.
4. You can store durable supplies and equipment, and basic but otherwise bulky furniture in the garage.
You can build chiffarobe-type cabinets and fit them with industry-size lockable casters. A few of these can be used to define living spaces in the garage. But the garage should be sealed–except for ventilation, of course, until you get there for the last time [to activate your retreat.]
This way, since you have to travel to your retreat anyway, you can get there in your RV, open your garage and drive in bringing with you the appliances, sleeping quarters etc. ready-to-go in your RV. Then you can use the rest of the garage as living quarters.
Of course, you can also vacation in your RV at your site, not only to make unobtrusive improvements but to check on conditions– Again, without opening the garage, unless you are staying permanently.
Bob B.

JWR Replies: That approach has its merits, particularly for folks that are retired, and presently traveling with a Fifth Wheel or RV in “snow bird” mode. The drawbacks are numerous, but not insurmountable. First and foremost among the drawbacks is that unless you are willing to leave unattended supplies vulnerable to burglary in your absence, you would be painfully short of logistics if all that you had was what you could cache there at the property and what was on-board your fifth wheel or RV. One way around that is with either extensive underground caching, or better yet an under-slab shelter with a concealed entrance. (Naturally, this only an option areas that do no have a high water table.) A less expensive alternative would be to rent a “mini-storage” unit in the nearest town. The other major drawback is common to all retreats that you don’t occupy year-round: In the event if a sudden onset disaster, you might be stranded and hence be unable to reach your retreat. This risk is compounded when operating a bulky, unmaneuverable fifth wheel or RV. (Smaller, off-road capable 4WD vehicles are more apropos for “Get out of Dodge” situations.” So if planning to use a big RV you will have to depend on good fortune and passable roads. (You might consider carrying bicycles, folding mo-peds (available from Safecastle) or off-road motorcycles on board, just in case you have to abandon your RV, en route.) Do you feel lucky? One option to obviate part of this risk, albeit expensive, is to have two such retreats–almost identically equipped–in separate regions–so that you would have a fallback plan/fallback location. If I were wealthy and a “snowbirder” (although I’m neither!), then this is exactly what I would do.

Letter Re: Observations on the Flooding in Central England

Sir:
You might have seen the news reports about the flooding in Central England last week. We’re in amongst it, but fortunately (and thanks to forward planning) high enough to have remained dry.
The primary cause of the floods was a prolonged period of exceptionally heavy rain, up to 131mm (c.5-1/2 inches) in one day. This followed hot on the heels of a very wet summer which left the ground sodden an unable to absorb the downpour, which caused flash-flooding as it ran off.
Areas not normally flood-prone have been inundated. Rivers broke their banks and filled their flood-plains.
Now this part of the country is used to flooding, although not in the summer months, as it has two of the UK’s most unstable rivers, the Severn and the Avon, passing through it. This episode, however, has been notable for the sheer amounts and force of the of water and depths of flooding. See this link and this link for some of the BBC’s coverage…

The mayhem and disruption caused has been bad enough, but it has been compounded by the behaviour of some which can only be described as moronic. Conversely, the bravery of many, both in the response services and the public, has been humbling to see.
The floods caused chaos with the transport links, with railway lines and roads under several feet of water, even the M5 and M50 motorways (our equivalent to freeways) were closed after they disappeared under anything up to a foot of floodwater. This caused huge tailbacks with several thousand people stranded for up to twenty hours in their vehicles. One woman went into labour whilst in the jam on the M5 and the emergency services were unable to reach her either by ambulance or helicopter because of the conditions. Fortunately a truck-driver stuck near to her car realised the situation and used his vehicle to force a way through the water and the traffic to tow the woman’s car to the ambulance. He then apparently had to tow the ambulance as it too had become overwhelmed by the water. They managed to get the woman to hospital in time for the child to be born in the dry.
Towns and villages have been cut off for several days with residents needing rescue by boat or helicopter as the waters rose so quickly. As is always the case, some residents opt to stay with their property and many of these had to be rescued later as levels continued to rise.
The situation has been made worse by the failure of mains services; electricity and water plant were flooded, even though they were sited above normal flood levels. A water treatment plant was overwhelmed and engineers are having to wait till flood levels drop sufficiently for them to get in and assess the damage. It is estimated that mains water will be off for at least two weeks. This has resulted in the water company having to import bottled water into the area for drinking purposes and, when the floodwaters dropped sufficiently, the placing of water bowsers to enable people to obtain clean water for sanitation. Sadly, although not surprisingly, there have been cases of people vandalising the bowsers, by breaking open the taps and even by polluting the contents. There is one confirmed case of someone urinating into a life saving tank. Looting has become a problem in areas that have been evacuated, forcing police to be diverted from rescue to deal with the crimes. There was an attempt to steal a length of temporary flood barrier, supposedly for its high scrap value. It is perhaps a pity that the thieves were thwarted in their attempt as on the other side of the barrier was several feet of floodwater.
Shops outside the affected zone have seen their entire supplies of water, milk and bread bought out by ‘enterprising’ individuals who later tried to sell them at highly inflated prices to the stranded people. Fortunately the police dealt with this unsavoury bunch and the practice has all but ceased.It is now just a week since the worst downpour, although the unseasonal rains continue to add to the misery. It took considerably less than a week, however, for the infrastructure to break down. With no water or electricity, empty shops and no means of re-supply, many people were in dire straits within a couple of days. The elderly, infirm and those with young families were, and in many cases still are, in deep trouble.
For families who could remain in their homes, or who have since returned, to areas which are still without power and mains water, basic sanitation is an increasing problem. Toilet flushing has to be rationed, clothes washing is virtually impossible and personal hygiene requires a level of thought and discipline that few are used to. One woman in her forties was seen on the television stating that she thought it appalling that the authorities had not been round to each home to ‘tell us what to do’. Personal responsibility and the thought that maybe the ‘authorities’ had other things on their mind at the time did not seem to enter her thinking.As the swollen rivers send the excess waters downstream the floods, power outages and disruption travel along with them.

There has been some respite from the rains which has allowed the levels upstream to drop, and flooding to recede, but at the time of writing (Friday 27th July) more heavy rains are forecast for Saturday night and key personnel have been placed on stand-by within the response services. Further flooding is predicted as the ground is still sodden and unable to absorb any more water. Whilst writing this first report, the post has got through and I’ve received my copy of “Patriots” from the lovely people at Amazon. The opening quotation from Gene Roddenberry makes a far better ending than any I could come up with: ‘Nuclear war is not necessary to cause a breakdown of our society……their water supply comes from hundreds of miles away and any interruption of that, or food, or power for any period of time you’re going to have riots in the streets. Our society is so fragile, so dependent on (the) interworking of things…”

Postscript:
This has been the largest real-time test of our prepping to date. We live in a fairly isolated spot and power outages are common, but this time we have been cut-off by the floodwaters and have been thrown, albeit for a short time, upon our own resources.
Our decision was to bug-in as we believed we would fare best here; the location was chosen carefully although with some compromise due to the need to be near places of employment.
That said, it seems everyone, us included, were surprised by the sheer amounts of rain – the most in living memory in the region – and just how quickly transport and communications failed. Had we bugged out in the midst of it, we would very likely been refugees ourselves. When the recovery phase is fully underway, we will re-appraise our planning and handling of the event. Remember, no plan survives first contact..Keep safe. – Michael in England

JWR Adds: I find it amazing that in the midst of this crisis, so many people are letting the copious rainwater from their roof downspouts go to waste. They just don’t have the survival mindset. At the very least, they could be using rainwater for clothes washing, bathing, and toilet flushing. With a water filter, they could also use rainwater for drinking and cooking. Take a minute to read his piece, by way of SHTF Daily: Living life without any tap water Take special note of the final quote in the article: “We also have to use bottled water to flush down the toilet, which is a waste, but we don’t have any choice.” Common sense, it seems, is all too uncommon.

EBay Expands its Firearms Parts/Magazine Sales Ban–and SurvivalBlog Takes Action

The liberal do-gooders at eBay have turned the screws even tighter on gun owners. First they banned the sale of guns, receivers, and ammunition. Then they banned the sale of 11+ round magazines, barrels, and gun parts kits. They’ve also banned any auction for knives with “fighting” or “throwing” in the title or description. (But they still allow box cutter knives. Hmmmm…) Now they’ve announced that they are banning auction listings for all gun clips/magazines and most gun parts. They are now using the standard of “any part required for firing of a gun” for their new restriction. So I presume that all they will now allow is merely gun slings, holsters, grips, and stocks. I’m not sure how they’ll treat bayonets. They’ll probably ban those too. (That might help reduce the recent wave of drive-by bayonetings.)

This sort of pansy liberal feel-goodism typifies both politics and the way they do business in the Nanny States. It is no wonder that eBay is headquartered in California. (where the majority elected Senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein.) EBay of course is a private firm and has the right to run their business as they see fit. But SurvivalBlog is a private business, too. So I’ve decided drop eBay (including eBay France, eBay Australia, and eBay.co.uk) as SurvivalBlog affiliate advertisers. I’m also encouraging SurvivalBlog readers to boycott them. My recommendations: When you want to buy a book or DVD, buy it from Amazon. When you want sporting goods, buy them at fixed price from US Cavalry Store or at auction from GunBroker.com or AuctionArms.com. I hardly expect these actions to bankrupt eBay. Its the principle of the matter.

Since eBay owns PayPal, you can expect to soon see PayPal adopt an almost identical restrictive policy. When you transfer funds, try to avoid using PayPal. Instead, please use GearPay — because they don’t share PayPal’s anti-gun political agenda.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Ken McC. sent us this: German bank becomes first EU victim of U.S. subprime mortgage woes. Ken’s comment: “The economic problems are demonstrating a world wide effect.” Meanwhile, Thanks to SHTF Daily we read: Bear Stearns halts redemptions in third hedge fund

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Reader David P. recommended this data on diesel generators.

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The high bid is still at $300 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction for a brand new Big Berkey water filter, kindly donated by Ready Made Resources. They are one of our most loyal advertisers. The auction ends on August 15th. Just e-mail us your bid.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Many of the best things in life are unappreciated until you begin to lose them. Consider good health, good brakes – and political liberty." – The Late Col. Jeff Cooper

Note from JWR:

We’ve finished the judging. The winner of Round 11 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest is John O. MD for his article “Survival Labor and Delivery”. He gets the top prize–a four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate. These certificates are worth up to $2,000! Our thanks to Front Sight’s director, Naish Piazza, for generously donating the course certificate. Check out the Front Sight web site and their great training opportunities.

Second prize goes to Vlad for his article “Older Chevy 4X4s: The Ideal EMP-Proof Survival Vehicles.” His prize is is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing.

I’m also sending out three honorable mention awards to: Countrytek for his article “Reducing Your Sound ‘Footprint‘”, to Steve in Iraq for his article “Guns for the Small Statured Shooter“, and to Gage for his article “Cutlery Considerations for TEOTWAWKI“. Each of them will be sent an autographed copy of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”.

Note to all the prize winners: Send me an e-mail to let me know your snail mail addresses, and your prizes will be mailed to you shortly. Thanks gents, and congratulations!

Today we start Round 12 of the contest. Here is the first entry:

Mental Preparations for Survival, by jc

For many people preparing to survive has become an obsession; a pursuit placed above all else in their lives. Others feel as if survival prep should be more of a priority if they could only afford to do more. Still others feel as if they may have already gone overboard in their preparations. Preparing for survival after TEOTWAWKI can make you feel overwhelmed, under-supplied, overspent, under-funded, over-your-head, or under-the-gun (no pun intended).
There are those who have the ability to purchase a retreat, stock it with supplies and equipment for a year or more, and have enough to share with those in need at will. They expect to support parents, siblings and spouses, nieces and nephews, grandkids, and several families of friends, and have already stocked their retreat with all the food, water, and supplies for all of them to start completely over. Most of us, however, fall far short of that ability, and hope that we can simply prepare for ourselves and our immediate family.
Please understand, I am not criticizing those who are able to prepare in this way. That’s what this country is all about – the chance to make and keep your fortunes. As Christians we don’t believe in luck, but we do believe in hard work and good fortune. We can only hope that most, many, or all of these fortunate people have the Christian outlook of sharing with those in need.
Whether you are a preparedness guru (PG) or a “newbie” (NP – for New Preparer), getting prepared to survive after any disaster, or even a total collapse, seems like a daunting task. PGs know just how expensive and time consuming preparing can be, and many NP’s have become discouraged as they begin to realize what they are facing. It is for that reason that mental preparedness (MP) is so important.
Mental Preparedness involves many aspects and the first and foremost of these is an individual’s Spiritual preparation. Are you a Christian? Have you accepted Jesus Christ as your Lord and Savior? Are you ready to die if that’s what God’s will for you is? Christianity – that is, evangelical Christianity (Christians who believe that Jesus died for their sins, was buried, and rose again as a living Savior sitting at the right hand of God) offers living hope for our future. We worship a living Savior, one Who has gone before us to prepare a place for us in heaven.
If you have not already done so, accept Jesus into your life as Lord and Savior. It’s so easy to do. Any good Christian can help you or go to www.sbc.net and click on the small green link at the top of the page “I want to know Jesus.” Until you make Christ real in your life the rest of the preparations are just going through the motions.
Once you are Spiritually prepared, the next step is prayer. Ask God to guide you in your preparation, to give you insight into the survival mindset, to lead you to the resources you need to get your mind ready for the preparation task, and to guide and help you in the decisions that must be made to prepare yourself and your family for survival. Ask Him how you can become a better Christian and person through this process – He will show you if you are open to receiving the answers. Finally, ask the Lord help you communicate the urgency and necessity to others to prepare to survive.
Is there Biblical mandate for survival? For preparation? Yes, God has given us instructions in His Word for survival and preparation. Following is a list of Scriptures for you to look up for yourself rather than quoting them here for brevity, but please take the time to look up each one and understand what God is trying to tell us, tell you, about being prepared and surviving.
Proverbs 6:6–11 – tells us that we are responsible to do the work of preparation while we are able.
2 Thessalonians 3:10 – basically says that if you don’t work, you don’t eat. Of course that does not include the sick or the aged; those should be taken care of by family or Christian charity. It plainly teaches that indolence or laziness should not be rewarded. In other words, if we could have prepared for the crisis but we didn’t, we can’t expect anyone else to take care of us. It is a principle that applies in every-day-life or in crisis situations.
1 John 3:17 – 18 – exhorts us to help others in need. Yet, you can not help someone who is in need if you haven’t prepared for or can’t help yourself. If we are to obey this verse then some sort of preparation is not only called for, but required.
Some great thoughts from another (unknown) Christian author:
“ With regard to fleeing from life-threatening situations – what one brother sarcastically refers to as ‘hidey hole’ theology – Both Peter and Paul escaped from life-threatening situations. Peter fled from Jerusalem after his miraculous deliverance from prison by the angel. Paul was let down over the walls of Damascus when a plot against his life was uncovered. Both of these were escapes from the physical persecution that arose against them because of their testimony and preaching of the Gospel. Are we supposed to believe that God is only interested in preserving His people if they are in danger as a result of their following Jesus? That if the shortsightedness or greed of the world, places Christians in danger, that somehow that is not sufficient reason to escape in order to continue to serve, worship and love God and those around us? I can’t speak for others, but I know my purpose in preparing for eventualities. It is not merely to save my hide; it’s not worth that much anyway; but to do what Christians have done throughout the centuries, namely to maintain a living witness to the redemptive love of God in Christ, and to continue nurturing the Church which God has called me.
Some Christians believe that it is wrong to leave your urban or suburban home to find a rural setting where survival would be more likely. Again, this is called, ‘hidey hole’ theology. Yet, after the stoning of Stephen much of the Church in Jerusalem dispersed precisely to preserve their lives, to continue to care for each other and spread the Gospel in the new surroundings. God called Stephen to martyrdom, but not the whole Church. The Church in Rome met in the catacombs. Some lived in the catacombs. Was that ‘hidey-hole’ theology? When Jesus began his ministry He read from Isaiah in the synagogue, ‘The Spirit of the Lord is upon me….This day the Scripture is fulfilled in your hearing.’ They wanted to kill Him, but He ‘passed through them.’ He escaped. Was that ‘hidey-hole’ theology?
In 1 Kings 17:8 – 16, Elijah instructed the widow of Zarephath to give him her last cup of flour and last bit of oil. He told her don’t be afraid, God will provide. God caused there to be a daily miracle provision of flour and oil for her survival. But another widow and her son in 2 Kings 4: 1 – 7, were instructed by Elisha to gather many containers, for God was about to provide for her needs. There was an immediate miracle of multiplication of the oil, part of which she was told to pay off her debts with, but the remainder she was to store. Thus, there was preparation, provision, and then storage in order for this woman and her son to survive. Sure, the provision was miraculous; but her use of God’s provision was quite normal and mundane. Nor did Elisha criticize her for storing her oil for her family’s future needs. [This author adds: it could be that your provisions may be provided in an equally miraculous fashion.]
Am I stupid, sinful and unbiblical because I want to see that my family survives? Am I supposed to believe that God doesn’t want me to do anything about the survival of those whom I love, whom He has given to me? Have I no responsibility? Do I just stand with my eyes scrunched closed and say, ‘OK God, you take care of me and mine?’ Survival is not the ultimate value or goal for me or my family. It never was or will be. ‘Glorifying God and enjoying Him forever’ is. If God wants me and mine dead, so be it, and may He be praised forever. But I don’t see that glorifying God and staying alive are mutually exclusive, especially when He seems to be graciously giving us advanced warning precisely so that we may continue to survive, so that we may serve Him and others.
And you, O mortal, do not be afraid of their words, though briers and thorns surround you and you live among scorpions; do not be afraid of their words, and do not be dismayed at their looks. Ezekiel 2:6
The clever see danger and hide; but the simple go on, and suffer for it. – Proverbs 22:3.
A closing thought (on Spiritual Preparedness): “When Noah built the ark, it wasn’t raining.”
Get your life right with God and prepare for tomorrow.

Many other aspects of survival require mental preparation as well. Too many people believe that because they witnessed some depravity that man had wrought on an individual, or on others, that they are now prepared to go through the hard times a severe crisis or even TEOTWAWKI can bring. Witnessing a tragic car accident, a shooting or murder, a knife fight in a bar, a shootout with the police, or even trying to help a rape victim can not begin to prepare you for the mental anguish of long-term crises. For the few who have had to kill in self-defense or seen the starvation and disease in some Third World country first hand as a missionary, these only begin to understand. If you served in combat – Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea, Vietnam, or WWII – and you had to kill or be killed, you had to care for a wounded and dying fellow soldier, or you had to survive as a prisoner of war, you understand some of what will be faced in an end of the world situation. Many of you may have loved ones or know someone who suffered with or still suffers from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and can understand the mental stressors the individual endures. Unless you have been through it too you can’t really comprehend all that this individual, these individuals, is/are going through.
So how do we prepare ourselves for what is to come? Everything starts with planning! And, it all hinges on organization. If you’re a NP, start a list of preparations that need to be made. Do research on the Internet to find lists of the things you will need to do and what you will need to have on hand. Don’t be overwhelmed by the lists of supplies – all of these things can be obtained one item at a time. Remember, if you start today you’re still ahead of the majority of people. Continue to remind yourself that whatever you do today to prepare, won’t be a need tomorrow.
Prepare your mind through the research you do. Read everything you can get your hands on about preparedness and survival, but read with a “grain of salt” so that you can discern good advice from bad. Read books and articles that are recommended by friends or reliable sources. Even other people who are preparedness minded can get and give bad advice – proceed with caution, but proceed.
One reliable and trusted Internet resource is survivalblog.com, written and maintained by Jim Rawles. He is also the author of one of the best survival preparedness books on the market called Patriots – Surviving the Coming Collapse. While the book is a novel, there are many, many good references and teachings throughout. He has numerous other resources of his own and others on the web site.
To continue mental preparations for survival the NP must understand that they are basically on their own. Of course, they may have a supportive spouse, other family members, or a friend or two who understands survival prep, but beyond that you won’t find individuals who are willing to open up their homes or retreats and say, “come see how I’ve done it.” Because of the secretive nature of our preparations for ourselves and our families, and because we want to protect those preps from those that would steal them or want to show up at our front gate when TSHTF, we just don’t let others know what we’ve got. Thus, we are on our own. It is a very difficult position to be in when a best friend refuses to recognize the importance and urgency or preparation. PGs understand this and have developed techniques and questions to discern how a person feels about preparedness and survival without really asking. Only time, practice, and mental preparedness can help in this area.
Preparing Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that outline what every family member will do in a crisis will ease your mental state as your preps continue. SOPs are nothing more than written directions to cover every contingency for every person. Make sure you have instructions written for all members who will be with you in a disaster situation. Different situations call for different SOPs – try to cover all the bases for at least 72 hours. This is not something you will accomplish overnight or even in the first few weeks. As you study and prepare you will continue to rewrite and edit your SOPs. Some may take years to finish while others may never be done.
Once your lists are in order you should begin putting together a BoB (Bug-out-Bag). This is a bag – a backpack, a duffel bag, a pillow case (although I think you will discover that a pillow case just isn’t big enough) with everything in it you’ll need to survive for three days to one week (or more). Every family member should have his/her own BoB, even children (as long as they are big enough to carry it). Weight for each BoB is obviously determined by each individual’s size and ability. When you know everyone has the things they need to survive for several days, your mind is much more at ease.
The BoBs are like everything else involved with prep and survival – they will evolve through shrinking and growing for months before you are satisfied with all the preps for them. Only you can determine what is best for you to carry in the end, but there are literally 100’s of list suggestions for BoBs on the Internet. Again, be prepared to sift through and decide what is best for you.
By prioritizing your purchases you can buy a little at a time – in fact, you can buy one item at a time if that is all your budget (or your wife [I’ll address this issue further down] will allow). For instance, water must be a top priority for everyone in preparing for disaster. You can go for days without food but only hours (in comparison) without water. If you have a free-flowing spring in your yard then you are obviously covered, but for most of us water is something we must prepare for. Do we try to store enough bottled water for our family? Do we depend on our neighbors? (I think we know the answer to that one – remember, we depend on no one but ourselves) Storing bottled water is impractical for long-term preparedness. Water is needed at the rate of at least one gallon per person per day. In hot or humid conditions or if you are working outside strenuously, you will need more – maybe even twice that amount. So, a water filter, with extra filters, is an obvious priority. You may have to save for a couple of weeks or more to buy one, but since it is an important item it will clearly be worth it.
Food is a relatively easy category to begin to fill out your supply of. If you will make a list of items that you and your family regularly eat (in dry or canned items) and then begin to buy one or two extra items each time you go to the grocery store, you will find that your food supply will grow quickly. Don’t forget things like toilet paper, tissues, baby items, feminine products, and the like; if you will buy these two at a time when you need them – one goes on the shelf to be used and the other goes in the prep closet or tub. These type products will also add to your stash quickly. P. S. You can never have enough toilet paper if TSHTF (no pun intended).
Continue to move down your Priority List is similar fashion and you will suddenly find yourself short of space to store things and your mental attitude eased by the fact that you are becoming prepared much quicker than you ever thought possible. Remember, organization is the key. Once you begin to buy items for prep or survival you must be organized. Lists are required, and keeping up with them is paramount for making sure you get what is necessary. It is very easy to buy things twice (or even more) if you are trying to keep up with your purchases by memory, or to think you bought something and miss the chance to buy it. Use lists!
Lists and organization are important to your MP in other ways as well. If you have your mind cluttered with mental lists, past or future purchases, and trying to keep up with all of your preps, family, work, etc., your going to be stressed beyond belief. Good MP calls for good organization.
I mentioned above that I would address the problem of a spouse who is a non-believer in preparedness or survival. When you want to talk about prep or survival all they do is change the subject or patronize you quickly and then dismiss it as unnecessary. They don’t want to waste money on it.
Many spouses believe there’s plenty of time to get what’s needed if an emergency comes up later. Some will say that God will provide for us, so we don’t have to do that. And, the excuses and objections goes on . . .
My own wife is one of those, or was one of those types. I went ahead with some small purchases a few years ago and she would question them, but I never hid my purchases from her, lied to her about them, or dismissed her inquisitions. I simply explained that I had bought the item so we would be prepared in case of an emergency and what it was for. I would try to talk to her about it each time SHE brought something up, but she always changed the subject or said we’d talk about it another time. I never forced the issue. Whenever she would hear a news story about some crisis situation (hurricane, tornado, lost hiker, violent robbery or home invasion) I would take the opportunity to point out the lack of preparation on the part of the individuals involved or what they needed instead of what they had, and I would say, “You know, I think I’ll get one of those (whatever was mentioned that someone else needed) for us next time I get a chance so we won’t be caught unprepared.” She would usually agree we needed it, and the next day (or even that very day) I would buy whatever it was and add it to my supplies. She never questioned those purchases and eventually became (a little) more interested in our preps. I’m now trying to get her interested in a piece of retreat property by explaining the exact things I’m looking for (wooded acreage with room for house, barn & garden, a spring or free-flowing creek, isolated, defensible, etc.) and why. It has caused a few arguments (of course, the making up is fun), and she still won’t read “Patriots” or any of the other books I’ve bought on the subject, but our (my) prep supplies are steadily growing and she’s beginning to understand slowly. I’m still open to new suggestions in this area if anyone has any, but I know this has worked for me so far.
Mental preparedness for survival is very important if you are to ever feel like you’re well on the way to being prepared. I’m one of those who believes that you can never be 100 percent prepared, but you can be well prepared. You can get to a point of calling yourself prepared and feeling good about your preps as long as you continue to monitor expiration dates, rotate fuel supplies, grow and can your own crops, and have all the things needed for starting over after TEOTWAWKI. A survival mindset is the first step. Making lists, prioritizing those lists for purchase or acquisition, and organizing the lists and acquisitions will help to keep you mentally prepared for survival.

Letter Re: The Pension Gamble: Cash In or Stand Pat?

Sir:

[My advice to David J. is:] Keep your retirement! I think you should keep your retirement account and find another job. By cashing out now you only receive your contributions plus interest and not one cent of your employers contributions if your state is anything like California. You are only getting about two years of a pension that you could possibly end up collecting for 30 years or more. Not counting any cost of living increases you would receive $756,000 over a 30 year period of retirement, the $50,000 looks kind of weak.
Get a jump on things and start checking around right now for possible job opportunities . Also check out getting educated in fields you may like to work in before you do get laid off. Be sure to ask suppliers or contractors you have contact with in your job for possible employment for you. Your employer’s financial condition may improve and your laid off status will get you priority when they hire again and you won’t lose your seniority.
If you do get rehired in the future or work at another state or public sector job your plan will continue and your years of service won’t be wasted. In my 30 years at my job I have seen many people who cashed out and were rehired or found other public pension jobs. They were very sorry they cashed out for a couple years worth of retirement money at one time. Your state pension will also have a yearly cost of living adjustments when you do retire. The nine years until you can draw a pension is a very short time.
Even if by some great stroke of bad luck you aren’t rehired or get other public sector employment you will have that pension money to help you in retirement.
The only way I could see any reason to cash out is if you are very sure you could start a good business that you are confident you could have success. I know of a couple people that took chunk of early buyout money and bought a back hoe and were kept very busy.
Since you are smart enough to read SurvivalBlog I think you are way ahead of the majority and will be able to get new employment and keep your retirement backup intact. Good Luck to you! – Gil

Letter Re: Special $99.95 Sale for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” Preparedness Course

Jim,
We just got a batch of 50 of your preparedness courses from the printer, and they screwed up the shrink-wrapping on many of them. Instead of fighting it out with the printer, we will knock 1/3rd off the regular price for your SurvivalBlog readers. But we’re gonna offer that discount for only a week, because we don’t want to fuss with double inventory. Please note that our main web site will still stay the same, showing the normal price, even on the order page. But when your readers check out, the discounted price [of $99.95 plus normal shipping and handling] will show up. And if anyone wants guaranteed perfect shrink wrap they should wait until after the sale ends, when the price will return to normal. But you can tell folks to not worry, because every other aspect of the course is in perfect condition. But when they sell out –around August 8th–we will raise the prices back to normal without notice, so anyone who has been sitting on the fence should act fast if they want to save some bucks.
Hope you’re having a great summer in the hinterboonies! Cheers, – Jake

JWR Adds: This is the first time that the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. course with accompanying audio CD has ever been sold for 1/3 off the regular price. The sale ends on Wednesday, August 8th, so place your order soon!

Odds ‘n Sods:

From SHTF Daily: Four ways to prepare for a global financial crisis

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This Gun Free Zone video (recommended by Richard C.) provides a bit of comic relief.

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RMV forwarded us this: The Numbers Don’t Add Up for Baby Boomer Retirees. Here is a quote from the article: “Consider the outlook. From 2005 to 2030, the 65-and-over population will nearly double to 71 million; its share of the population will rise to 20 percent from 12 percent. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid—programs that serve older people—already exceed 40 percent of the $2.7 trillion federal budget. By 2030, their share could hit 75 percent of the present budget, projects the Congressional Budget Office. The result: a political impasse. The 2030 projections are daunting. To keep federal spending stable as a share of the economy would mean eliminating all defense spending and most other domestic programs (for research, homeland security, the environment, etc.). To balance the budget with existing programs at their present economic shares would require, depending on assumptions, tax increases of 30 percent to 50 percent—or budget deficits could quadruple. A final possibility: cut retirement benefits by increasing eligibility ages, being less generous to wealthier retirees or trimming all payments.”