Note from JWR:

There are just three days left in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. is now at $650. The high bid is now at $810. This big auction is for any of you that are gun enthusiasts. It includes 17 items: A four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate, which was kindly donated by Naish Piazza of Front Sight (worth up to $2,000), a $200 gift certificate from Choate Machine and Tool Company (the makers of excellent fiberglass stocks, folding stocks, and shotgun magazine extensions), $450+ worth of full capacity magazines from my personal collection including five scarce original Ruger-made 20 round Mini-14 magazines and five scarce 20 round Beretta M92 magazines, and an autographed copy of the book “Boston’s Gun Bible.” The total value of this 17 item auction lot is $2,700! (See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for details on exactly what is included.) Note: Because this auction includes full capacity magazines, no bids will be accepted from outside of the US or from a resident of any state with magazine restrictions. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments. The auction ends on Sunday, June 15th.

Two Letters Re: Request for Investing Advice

Hello Jim,
First off, thanks for an excellent book/resource in your novel “Patriots”. I read it in the last week and it has had a profound effect on me. I also felt the writing was quite good, being entertaining and educational at the same time. Thanks for it!

After reading your book (and listening to my brother, who has been talking about TEOTWAWKI for some time now), I did finally do some things to prepare in the last week, but I wonder what the next step is for me.

First off, I invested about $80 to make some shelving in a storage closet downstairs that had previously been filled with junk.

Then I went to the local Wal-Mart and bought canned and dry goods: about six each of peas, corn, refried beans, tuna, pinto beans, stove top stuffing, rice, ramen, breakfast cereal, and so forth. I made sure to only buy stuff that we would eat anyway. I guess I’m not quite sure to buy whole grain and a mill, because truthfully unless we get to TEOTWAWKI, there’s no way we would use that stuff. Anyway, total cost for all this food was around $180, and it filled about 2/3rds of my shelves (the [shopping] cart was full though). I figure this is a good start, and now I feel if there was a “run on the grocery store” we would still be able to live for one to two months.

I also have lots of guns of varying calibers, including 8 rifles and 5 handguns, and probably 500 rounds of ammo total, approximately 300 of these are cartridges for my 9mm Glock which I just purchased new a few months ago.

Based on my brother’s advice, I did buy 12 one-ounce gold coins within the last year, and have those here in my house. After having read your book, I did go trade one of those coins for silver the other day, so I now have approximately $900 in silver as well.

I have decided to allocate all of my tax “stimulus” check towards preparing for the future. Our stimulus was approximately $700 (I made too much money to get the full amount), so I have about $400 left. So here’s the question: What do I spend this $400 on? More silver? More food? More ammo? I assume your opinion is that the price of all of these is going to continue to go up, but I hate to buy ammo when I see how doggone expensive it is now!

One more question: Between my wife and me we have a substantial sum invested in retirement funds, mostly in low-load mutual funds through Vanguard. I am wondering about taking a portion of this money and putting into a money-market account so that when/if the stock market crashes I will retain some value. However, I am also aware that inflation would eat this money alive, if we get into heavy inflation. I would be interested in your opinion on this question as well. Thanks, – Mr. H. in Wyoming

JWR Replies: Your tax stimulus check is probably best spent on additional useful tangibles such as food, first aid supplies, and ammo. Despite what appears to be the high price tag, the price of ammunition will likely continue to go up. Don’t think of it as ammo going up in price. It is more a function of the dollar going down in purchasing power.

With the recent collapse of the credit market, US stocks are now quite precarious. The dearth of credit is shutting down the economy. But regardless of whether or not there is a stock market crash or if US companies continue to limp along, US stocks certainly won’t have the same returns that they did in years past. So it is best to divest yourself of nearly all of your stocks and stock mutual funds. IMHO, the only stocks that are presently worth holding are in the energy sector and precious metals mining, and even then those should be the minority of your full portfolio.

At the present time, after paying off any outstanding consumer debt (such as car loans or credit cards) I’d recommend that you then reinvest the remainder of your mutual fund divestiture, as follows:

40% in inflation indexed US treasuries (TIPS),
20% in a global currency fund (to minimize your dollar exposure),
10% in additional food storage and various preparedness gear (first aid, communications, et cetera.)
10% in money market account
10% in silver mining and energy stocks
10% in barterable tangibles (as I’ve described in my blog–things like guns, common caliber ammo, and full capacity magazines)

However, your priorities my differ so you might want to adjust those ratios. The important thing is insulating yourself from inflation, and a the likely collapse of both the stock market and the US dollar in foreign exchange. Because of the global credit collapse, we are on the verge of a depression that could be as bad or worse than that of the 1930s. Be ready. Get out of stocks and minimize your US Dollar exposure.

If and when inflation jumps to double digits, even TIPS won’t be a safe investment (since government figures under-state inflation). At that point you should then sell your TIPS and close you money market account. Invest that more heavily into tangibles–both barterables and retreat-worthy land. By that time, the real estate market will be in cardiac arrest, so there will be some genuine bargains. Living in Wyoming, you might consider some of the locales I mention in my book “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation”, such as The Big Horn Basin, and the Star Valley. Look for properties with good topsoil and plenty of water. Be sure to buy land that is on defendable terrain and that is well-removed from any major highway.

Good Morning Mr. Rawles,
I found SurvivalBlog about a year ago have been hooked since, [your novel] “Patriots” was inspiring and awesome.

I would like your opinion regarding 401(k) retirement funds. I am 49 years old and have a fair amount of 401(k) funding, I understand any early withdrawal would result in about 30% tax and loss. I know you don’t have a crystal ball but would 70% not be better then a 100% loss in a situation of a full economic collapse. I know these are very hypothetical questions but I have come to respect your opinions, and could fast-track my preparedness if I cashed out early. – John V.

JWR Replies: First, ask your company if they offer a “Self-directed 401(k)” option. If so, you can put your money in a contrarian (“bear”) stock (and stock shorting) fund, and some energy and silver mining stocks.

Is there any chance of rolling over your 401(k) into an Individual Retirement Account (IRA)? If so, you can get a US Gold Eagle IRA. (The folks at Swiss America can set one up for you.) I have heard of some people “trapped” in very limited 401(k)s that have switched to independent contractor status, changed jobs, or even gone so far as to briefly quit their jobs and then get re-hired, just to free up their 401(k) funds to accomplish a rollover without penalties. (Some of these approaches, of course, would require having a sympathetic boss.)

If none of those approaches will work in your situation, then at least re-direct your 401(k) out of stocks and stock mutual funds and into a money market fund. (Most corporate retirement fund plans allow at least a small portfolio “menu” of investment approaches.) But I would not recommend doing anything so radical as taking a 70% loss.

Letter Re: What is a “Gray” Front Sight Course Certificate?

JWR –
Is the Front Sight certificate [offered in the current auction, and available as writing contest prizes] good for the course that includes the “free” pistol? Also, you keep mentioning “gray” certificates but not all of us know what that means! Thanks, – MDR

JWR Replies: The “gray” course certificate is for one person to attend one Front Sight four day course (or for two people to attend a two day course.) The certificates printed on gray paper are transferable, but are “introductory”, meaning that they can’t be used by someone that has already attended a Front Sight course. The four day courses are normally $2,000.

Front Sight’s current “Get a Gun” training and gear package offer (including a Springfield Armory XD pistol) is a separate offering. But that also includes a gray course certificate, which makes the offer a real bargain!

Letter Re: Bulk Storage Grain Now Available in New Zealand

Dear JWR,
You have rightly pointed out in the past that New Zealand is a good location for surviving a world crisis. New Zealand has less than half the average population density of the USA (39/sq mi. versus 80/sq mi.), there are just 1.3 million people in our largest city and many regions are blessed with wonderful conditions for horticulture.
Of course there are downsides to New Zealand’s isolation during normal times. The United States of America is a large marketplace with over 300 million people – you can have supplies for any niche need delivered to your door. Over here, often the airfreight on specialized survival goods from the US costs more than the goods themselves! And unless you can fill a shipping container, you can forget about purchasing any heavy goods.

I’m writing to let your readers know that there is a new company offering bulk storage wheat and rice in New Zealand. Our product is packed into mylar bags and the oxygen is removed, leaving a partial vacuum with a nitrogen atmosphere. The bags are protected by a heavy duty HDPE pail with sealing lid, for durability and a secondary oxygen barrier.
Wheat stored in this way has the potential to last 20 years or more, and white rice for 10 years or more.

I’m a survivalist who has got into business, not a businessman who has got into survival – I regularly use a grain mill to turn my own product into delicious wholemeal breads at home. I would like to invite your readers to view our Enduring Supplies Limited web site. As an introductory offer, I will offer Survivalblog readers a 10% discount on whole pallet orders and a 5% discount on smaller orders placed in the next two weeks (finishing Friday 27th June). I look forward to hearing from some like minded ‘locals’. Kind Regards, – Craig (a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber)

JWR Replies: I wish you the best with your business. It will certainly fill what has been a chronic need.

OBTW, you mentioned New Zealand’s population density. The stats that I have seen list North Island’s density as 27.5 per square kilometer, compared to just 6.7 per square kilometer on South Island. There is no doubt where I’d recommend our Kiwi (and Kiwi wannabe) readers live: the farming and ranching country on South Island.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Our friend Michael Panzner of the Financial Armageddon blog just linked to this key article: Crisis shifts to regional lenders. This shows that the global credit collapse is s far from over!

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Larry W. flagged this piece by Jim Sinclair: Total Notional Value of Derivatives Outstanding Surpasses One Quadrillion Dollars. That is a lot of zeros! BTW, I think that Sinclair’s figures are high, since among other things, credit derivatives are actually dropping rapidly in their notional aggregate value. This is inevitable as the global credit market is continuing to contract. But regardless, the risk posed by derivatives is still enormous The recent Bear Stearns bailout is indicative of the extreme measures that could be required, when a counterparty suddenly ceases to exist.

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Bob H. spotted a safety alert article that describes in detail a threat posed by the “The Meth Head Next Door”: Anhydrous ammonia and propane cylinders

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Pain at the Pump: It’s Time to Start Thinking About $7 a Gallon Gasoline. Meanwhile, we read: An ominous warning that the rapid rise in oil prices has only just begun

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it was once like in the United Stated where men were free.” – President Ronald Wilson Reagan

Letter Re: An Army Officer’s Observations

Mr Rawles,
I found your web site a few months ago and have been pouring through it ever since. This past week, I finished reading the SurvivalBlog archives through the end of 2007. Just six months of archives left 🙂 I also just finished reading your excellent novel, “Patriots”

As a fundamentalist Christian who was homeschooled, I truly appreciate your willingness to unabashedly share your faith and your conservative family values through your web site and writings.

I am also a West Point graduate who became an Armor officer in 2000, so I really enjoy and relate to your anecdotes and descriptions (and military jargon & acronyms) of your personal Military Intelligence experience, as well as the fictional experiences of “Doug Carlton”. Your descriptions of M1A1 tanks, Fort Knox, Advanced Camp (Camp Buckner for me), et cetera. are all spot on. Your description of tankers, down to the details about being chronically horrible on security, was exactly correct. I well remember getting a CS [tear gas] canister thrown into our perimeter at [National Training Center] NTC by the [Observer Controller] OC because we were all asleep. We received a briefing on the vulnerabilities of Abrams tanks at the Armor Captain’s Career Course and, in light of that, I found your discussion of the matter in “Patriots” very interesting. As a note of interest, since the Iraq War, the training in the Armor CCC seems to place renewed importance on urban warfare and especially on combined operations with Infantry. In fact, I believe Armor and Infantry CCCs have combined now to form a single “Maneuver Captain’s Career Course”.

After my platoon leader time, I worked in the Fort Knox Garrison S3 shop as a planner for two years at Fort Knox’s Emergency Operations Center, working on their contingency operations plans for everything from earthquakes to terrorists attacks. I took advantage of my time there in taking a lot of FEMA online courses, getting my amateur radio license, and taking a lot of civilian and military training in [Search and Rescue] SAR. That being the case, I absolutely loved the Fort Knox aspects of the plot in “Patriots” and wish to heck that I had your book during my time there to pass around to the other guys. My time there was also the point in my life when I realized that a lot can go wrong in this world and I’d better have a plan to prepare for it.

Wanting some change, I later became a Civil Affairs officer with deployments to Iraq and West Africa. Civil Affairs just became it’s own branch in 2006 as the Army recognizes that “civilians on the battlefield” play an enormous role in low intensity conflicts like Iraq. The civilian dimension, both as potential OPFOR and BLUFOR, is being studied and analyzed in depth in today’s Army, as it should be. However, it is terrifying to contemplate a “Patriots” type of scenario where that scrutiny, analysis, and subsequent operations would be turned towards our own populace. Double ditto for all things related to the new branch of Psychological Operations

After reading survivalblog, I’ve been re-examining my military experiences, especially my time in Iraq and West Africa from the survivalist viewpoint. I don’t want to make this e-mail into a book, so I’ll only mention a few things for now: In many of the Medical Civic Action Programs (MEDCAP) that we conducted in Africa, one of the hugely popular items was adaptive eyewear. Essentially, they are adjustable glasses where the user can modify the power of each lens to his or her needs. It works through fluid-filled lenses. You can checkout their web site at http://www.adaptive-eyecare.com/index.htm . I’m not affiliated with them, by the way, but I have handed out a lot of these things. They look like the Army BCGs, so they aren’t pretty but they are effective. I went to a village last year where they told me their number one medical need was eye care. Actually, it appeared as though a large percent of the elderly people had cataracts which we couldn’t fix obviously, but the adjustable glasses were a hot item for many others. I thought about it when I read some of the previous posts about eye care and about barter items. How many people would have lost or broken their glasses after a few years of TEOTWAWKI? Or their prescription changes? Glasses might be a popular barter item, but who wants to stock every prescription imaginable? These glasses can be adjusted from +6 to -6 Diopters.

The only catch is… I think this company mostly sells their glasses in bulk to NGO-type organizations for use in third world countries, so I have no idea if they are available to the normal person here in these united States. However, now that you know they’re out there, you might keep a watch out for something like it. This is an example of something that is probably not currently marketable in a developed country because of lack of need. However, that could quickly change if TSHTF. I think I heard that the glasses were about $10 or $12 each, but they were trying to bring the costs down. Also, I’m no eye doctor, but I surmised that one of the reasons for the surprisingly high number of cataract and eye problems in these places is that they go through their whole life living outdoors without sunglasses or eye protection. Granted, we were in or near the Sahara Desert, where conditions are unusually harsh, but the lesson I took away is that sunglasses and eye protection are essential, especially if spending a lot of time in harsh-sun environments or anywhere there isn’t an eye doctor.

On another note of interest, probably the number one ailment by far we saw were bowel problems, probably related to unsanitary conditions and unpurified water. There were also always a sizable number of people who had dental problems who were hugely grateful when our dentist pulled their problem teeth. As you’ve mentioned before, having a dental kit and knowing how to pull teeth doesn’t sound too exciting now but if the time came when you needed it, you sure would be thankful that you could. Our dentist made it look so easy, pulling people’s teeth while they sat on an Army cot or the back of a pickup, that I asked him to pull my wisdom teeth. He wouldn’t do it, though, saying that there’s a big difference in pulling out a malnourished person’s tooth and pulling out a McDonald’s fed American’s teeth. Plus, he didn’t want the liability in case of complications. My wisdom teeth weren’t a problem for me, but I went ahead and got them pulled when I got back from the deployment. I figured it was better to get that out of the way now rather than wait until TEOTWAWKI when I’d be sitting on the back of a pickup while some goon is putting a pair of pliers in my mouth.

One huge “mistake” that we made was our method of handing out some giveaways during our MEDCAPs. Be careful of your how you hand out charity! We gave out bolts of cloth (the cloth had pro-American prints on them) to the women of one village and within a few hours, we had near-riot conditions. Several people were injured and nearly suffocated and/or trampled, the local police grew, shall we say, heavy-handed, and we shut down all operations. Your advice of giving out charity from a distance and using an intermediary like the church is exactly correct. Another lesson is that bolts of cloth are another really popular item for people who have to make their own clothes.

Thank you for all you do. My 10 Cent Challenge contribution will be forthcoming. God bless you and your family. Respectfully, – The Kansan

Letter Re: Potassium Iodide Versus Potassium Iodate for Post-Nuke Thyroid Gland Protection

Jim,
I’m doing some preparation research now since I’ll be pretty close to Yucca Mountain when it comes online, which I ultimately expect it to. I recently saw a posting on your blog [from “Cody”] regarding the taking of the thyroid blockers Potassium Iodate [KI] and Potassium Iodide [KIO3] in case of a nuclear event. The person writing you said that Potassium Iodate was superior because it didn’t cause as much stomach irritation as Potassium Iodide. I did a web search on “potassium iodide versus potassium iodate” and came up with these links:
Approved Brands
Iodide Versus Iodate
WHO Guide to Radiation Prophylaxis (PDF)

I did as was suggested and searched for Potassium Iodate as being FDA approved and couldn’t find it. Also, the World Health Organization actually does say that Potassium Iodate actually causes more stomach irritation, not less (see page 17 of the third link I included)- ” KI is the preferred alternative, since KIO3 has the disadvantage of being a stronger intestinal irritant”. That directly contradicts what Cody claimed in his letter. I just wanted to pass this along to get the accurate info out.
Take care, – Bill in Las Vegas

JWR Replies: Thanks for finding that piece of information! OBTW, living in Las Vegas, I think that you should be even more concerned about Las Vegas as the potential target of a terrorist nuclear “dirty bomb” than you are about the Yucca Mountain storage facility, or the vehicles transporting nuclear waste to it.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thanks to Manuel for sending this “.45 ACP versus 400 pound bear” story from the mountains of eastern Oregon: ‘Bears always run away’. OBTW, hammer down on a live cartridge is not a good way to carry a Model 1911 pistol! (There are safety issues in lowering the hammer without causing a negligent discharge, and the pistol carried in “Condition Stupid” is very slow to get into action.) Most bears and two-legged predators are not nearly so polite as to give someone the time to both un-holster and then thumb-cock a M1911 pistol. These pistols are properly carried in “Condition One” (a.k.a. “cocked and locked”.) I hope that the reporter just got that part of the story wrong. Oh and BTW, somebody must also educate the reporter on the difference between a “clip” and a magazine.

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Several readers sent us this chilling Daily Mail article: Nine meals from anarchy – how Britain is facing a very real food crisis

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A reminder that the WRSA has another Practical Medicine course scheduled, in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, June 20 to June 22. This is excellent, very affordable training that is taught by an Emergency Room doctor with many years of practical experience. The course is subtitled: “Field Expedient Medical Care for Outdoorsmen in Austere Environments.”

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Jack in Texas notes that the US is not the only country that is top-heavy with accumulated debt. He sent this Korea Times link: Household Debts Hit All-Time High of W640 Trillion

Note from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. is now at $650. This big auction is for any of you that are gun enthusiasts. It includes 17 items: A four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificate, which was kindly donated by Naish Piazza of Front Sight (worth up to $2,000), a $200 gift certificate from Choate Machine and Tool Company (the makers of excellent fiberglass stocks, folding stocks, and shotgun magazine extensions), $450+ worth of full capacity magazines from my personal collection including five scarce original Ruger-made 20 round Mini-14 magazines and five scarce 20 round Beretta M92 magazines, and an autographed copy of the book “Boston’s Gun Bible.” The total value of this 17 item auction lot is $2,700! (See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for details on exactly what is included.) Note: Because this auction includes full capacity magazines, no bids will be accepted from outside of the US or from a resident of any state with magazine restrictions. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments. The auction ends on June 15th.

Letter Re: Alaska as a Retreat Locale

Although I think there is a lot of mindless drivel on television, I wouldn’t have know about your blog site if I hadn’t watched [the news story on CNN [that mentioned SurvivalBlog] yesterday. I was on the computer all afternoon yesterday reading information you have posted, as well as visiting the sites of some of your advertisers.

You are right on your opinion of Alaska, [regarding its unsuitability for most people as a retreat locale]. We live in a coastal fishing community (population under 3,000 year round, double that in the summer when the cannery workers & tourists come to town) and are not connected to the road system. Everything comes in by plane or water (barge and ferry). We have one gas station and have heard that gas just went to $5.42 per gallon and diesel is over $6 per gallon.(You know how gas stations have signs out with their prices on them? Not here – they’re the only game in town, so they don’t have to post prices. If you need gas you have to go see them eventually. Bread is $4.99 a loaf, a two pound block of Tillamook cheese is over $16.00 and a 32 oz. jar of Best Foods mayonnaise is $7.65 in one of the stores here. (We have three small grocery stores here, two of which are owned by a local person and the other by a Canadian company). We sometimes have to wait weeks for car parts, etc. to come in and some items are prohibited to ship from the lower 48, like ammo. We have a very short growing season and not much in the way of top soil (lots of muskeg) so raising our own veggies is difficult.On the plus side, we have one freezer full of seafood and another full of moose, as well as some I have canned.

I feel fortunate to have grown up learning from my grandmother who told me stories of raising six kids on a farm with no electricity or running water and what it was like to go through the Depression. (when they cleaned the soot out of kerosene lantern chimneys they’d save it and use it to polish their Sunday shoes). I learned to can from my mom and our family always had a frugal mindset. I worked in a health food store years ago and began to learn about whole grains, etc. as well as wild plants for medicine and food. Five years ago we moved to Alaska and I began to learn more about wilderness survival due to our remote location and travel by bush plane.

In my spare time I taught myself some skills that may come in handy, such as soap making. Skills are learned over a lifetime and it is an ongoing process.Also, there is a wealth of information rolling around in the heads of older people – all you have to do is ask them.

We will be returning to the Outside soon and your advice on locations will hopefully come in handy (we will have to settle in a location according to my husband’s employment).

We have some of the skills we need, have been stocking up for a while, but have a ways to go.

I will be a frequent visitor to your site now that I know it’s there. Thanks for the wealth of information. – Lonnie in Alaska

Letter Re: Consumer Price Hikes for Food Will Continue

James –
I’m a long time reader first time writer. I have been in the food business for 31 years with many companies, over the past 12 months I have had to raise my prices around 27% but my costs have risen 57%. We are afraid to continue passing on the rise because business has already decreased substantially but within the next few months we will be forced to raise our prices another 25% or quit the business. What I am trying to say is that we are at most, only halfway through the food inflation which has already occurred, as to the future it is entirely possible that it could continue unabated. The difference between now and the inflation of the 1980s is demand. In the 1980s we suffered transportation and fuel cost crisis, we are currently have those same issues combined with demand exceeding supply for many items. – JPG

Letter Re: Observations on Real World Pistol Malfunctions and Failures

Mr. Rawles,

Bill from Ohio writes: “Most people buy guns and they never shoot them, in fact, last time I heard a statistic regarding firearms usage in the United States, the national average of rounds fired per gun was seven – and that is over the entire lifetime of the owner!” There are about 250 million firearms in the US and about 10 billion rounds of ammunition sold per year. That’s an average of 40 rounds per gun per year. On average, each US resident fires about 2,400 rounds of ammunition in a 72-year lifetime. Assuming a 40-year lifetime for a gun, that’s roughly 1,600 rounds per firearm.
So “seven” is off by more than two orders of magnitude. It should have been obvious that this figure was seriously unrealistic. – PNG

JWR Replies: You are correct that Bill from Ohio’s figure of an average of seven rounds was erroneously low. However, there are several qualifiers that I would add to your analysis of the 8 to 10 billion small arms cartridges produced in the US each year:

First, there are serious shooters and there are casual shooters. The serious variety (“target shooters”) consume far more ammunition than most others, who fire very few cartridges through their guns.

Second, more ammunition is produced each year than is fired. This is purely anecdotal evidence, but I personally know several SurvivalBlog readers that only fire 20 to 50 rounds of centerfire per year and perhaps two or three times as many rimfire cartridges, yet they have 30,000+ rounds (including rimfire ammo) stored in their basements.

Third, not all ammunition is produced for the civilian market. The military Lake City Arsenal, for example, produces nearly 1.5 billion round per year, and only a tiny percentage of that is eventually fired by civilians.

Fourth, not all ammunition is produced for the domestic market. I recently saw a statistic of $3.1 billion worth of ammunition commercially exported by the US in 2005—not counting foreign military sales (FMS) programs. Assuming an average of 28 cents per cartridge, that equates to close to one billion rounds (perhaps 1/8th of US annual production) in exports. Offsetting that of course are ammunition imports, but US exports of ammunition far exceed imports.

Fifth, I believe that the oft-cited estimate of 250 million guns in the US is a low estimate. I think that the actual figure is closer to 400 million.

Together, all of these factors radically push down the number of rounds fired in centerfire guns that are purchased by casual shooters. There are quite a few guns sold that never get fired at all. These are the so-called “desk drawer” guns and “safe queen” guns. It is surprising to see how many guns described as “new in box”, “like new in box”, or “test fired only” that are advertised on the secondary market. (The listings at GunBroker.com and GunsAmerica.com are indicative.) Granted, there is no logical support for Bill from Ohio’s figure, but I would assert that it was not off by nearly as large a margin as you suggest.