Odds ‘n Sods:

DAV mentioned this story that might portend a market change: Russian government takes over gold mining sector

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Some analysis from Steve Schifferes of BBC News: Financial crises: Lessons from history. I disagree that government intervention is the best solution. Inevitably “market intervention” ends up being a wealth transfer from one group of citizens to another, to the detriment of the former, and to the benefit of the latter. In the context of the current liquidity crisis, “intervention” will probably be in the form of loan guarantees which will put taxpayers on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars. In the long run, all debt, good or bad, must be “unwound.” This unwinding can be painful, but it generally best to let the free market take its course and return to equilibrium.

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Sometimes a toy is not a toy: Laser perimeter security sets. It looks like two or three sets would be required for serious use. Just be advised that these will show up like searchlights when seen through night vision gear. (A hat tip to Hawaiian K.for spotting these.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come. When in a state of security he does not forget the possibility of ruin. When all is orderly, he does not forget that disorder may come. Thus his person is not endangered, and his States and all their clans are preserved." – Confucius

Note from JWR:

As promised, I have again put “six packs” of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” on sale. The price of a box of six is now just $90, postage paid. (You’ll get six autographed copies for $90, delivered, via Priority Mail Flat Rate box, mailed to anywhere in the Unites States, including APO/FPO addresses.) This sale ends on October 31st. This is your chance to buy some extra copies for Christmas presents.

Two Letters Re: Advice on Construction a Hiding Place for Precious Metals in a Home

James
Before building a house with a walk-in vault, for years I stored firearms and ammo in an old soft drink vending machine. Bought the non-working machine for next to nothing, removed the guts, and had a cheap gun safe (if necessary, a locksmith could re-key an old machine for a few bucks). It held a lot, had an excellent locking system, would be hard to break into, but best of all was invisible. Placed in my garage and later a barn, with a few tools and old boxes stacked on top, no one ever gave it a second look. – Bois d’Arc

 

JWR:
Just a couple more ideas on hiding in plain site:
Junk silver coins can fit in [tubular] clothing rods in your closets.
If you take the felt bottoms off of most ceramic lamps there is a hollow are to stash stuff in though you will have to secure it so it does not rattle.
Depending on the layout of your house look at heating duct work, is there a place where you could install a false duct going to nowhere and fill it.
under a kitchen sink drill a 1-1/2″ diameter hole opposite of each other in the back and you can slide a piece of PVC drain pipe in the holes one side first then the other.
also if you have a compound miter saw a semi permanent hiding place is installing crown moulding and using the dead space behind the moulding as a storage area. If you use nails as well as liquid nails glue to install it can support a large amount of weight. this idea also lends itself to coffered ceilings where you can build in a very large hidden space.
if you have a bed with large posts and decorative screw on tops you can use a wood boring bit to make a large hollow space and then screw the tops back on.well I hope these help you guys – Brian

JWR Replies: Thanks for those suggestions. One other “in plain site” cache suggestion that I’ve seen mentioned is a piece of black 4″ diameter ABS plastic pipe with threaded end cap protruding from the ground. To the casual observer, it will appear to be just a sewer or septic tank clean-out access port.

Letter Re: Alcohol Stoves

Jim,
I found this very cool German-made alcohol stove called the Turm Touring.

I’ve never seen anything like it before. Took it home put some alcohol in the brass tank and lit the burner. It really works well. I got a nice blue flame; lots of heat from this little single burner stove.
Very interesting design; no pressure! You don’t have to pump up a tank with air like the Coleman stoves. Then reading some more I found this web site: SpiritBurner.com Very interesting and
seems like something a survival type person would be interested in. – Fred The Valmet-meister

Letter Re: Useful LifeHacker Articles

Mr. Rawles:
There are so many great and not-so-great ideas on the LifeHacker site including this one I found showing you how to use C cell batteries in place of a D cell compartment in an emergency situation:

There are some other interesting things on this site like creating make-shift air conditioning systems using cold well water (others have made emergency air conditioners using beverage coolers, fans and copper coils): DIY Heat Exchanger and Make Your Own Air Conditioner.
There is this one showing you how someone made hand washing more efficient while filling the tank of his toilet. [JWR Adds: I would recommend skipping this one. The implementation shown uses plywood which cannot be kept sanitary. It also might result in a smelly toilet tank if you use an non-chlorinated water source such as well water or spring water.]

And here’s one with a video demonstrating how one can cheaply acquire 8 – 1.5v button cell batteries from 1 – A23 12v battery:

Well, there’s enough on this LifeHacker site to keep you busy for some time. Enjoy!, – Tanker

Letter Re: Honey Prices Escalating, Just as Predicted

Jim:

Saw the post regarding imported honey. Heard the same thing from my small time honey supplier. For west coast Costco’s, Silverbow honey is pure and made from US and Canadian honey. Verified this with the folks at Silverbow, based in Moses Lake, Washington state. For the record, I do my best to support local businesses and suppliers in Washington state and the Pacific Northwest, followed (naturally!) by SurvivalBlog [paid advertisers and affiliate] advertisers. Regards, – MP near Seattle

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Dancing Barefoot” sent us this: H5N1 Asian Avian Flu Now in Germany: “Tests have found that birds at a poultry farm in southern Germany died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu, and some 160,000 birds were being slaughtered as a precaution, authorities said.”

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I heard from Vic at Safecastle that Mountain House freeze dried storage food prices are going up substantially on September 1st. OBTW, they still have some 7 Day Just in Case Kits of Mountain House foods (in handy pouches) on sale for just $100 postage paid. Get your Mountain House orders in to Safecastle, ASAP!

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The big put option play: Mystery trader bets market will crash by a third. Obviously this is either someone with killer insider knowledge or with no sense whatsoever.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“I would argue that Countrywide is insolvent. Their only asset is their pricing platform, their business algorithm, and that’s not working. The next biggest asset they have is the toner for their copiers.” – Joe Mason

Note from JWR:

When reviewing our blog statistics, I just noticed that more than 33% of SurvivalBlog readers now use the Firefox browser. It is a much more secure browser than Microsoft Explorer. I highly recommend that all of our readers make the switch. And speaking of security and privacy, I also recommend using Scroogle.org’s scraper as an anonymous interface to Google searches.

The Future of the U.S. Suburban Real Estate Versus Rural Retreat Real Estate

In recent months I’ve been asked by several consulting clients if it is still a good time to buy a retreat property. The answer is yes. If you find a really phenomenal property, the answer is always yes. (Yes if you can buy it without going deep into to debt. ) In fact, some close family members bought the place of their dreams after consulting with me this last year.

Say that you find a property that is in the region that you’ve selected, and it has all of the features that you’ve been looking for–such as gravity fed spring water, defendable terrain, good soil, open space for gardening and livestock–then you probably shouldn’t let it get away from you.

It is notable that SurvivalBlog recently launched a spin-off web site–SurvivalRealty.com–which features only survival retreat properties. Some might think that this is not a wise time to start such a venture. But consider that most of the advertised retreat locales are in areas where the price of real estate is likely to drop no more than 10%, even in the event of a prolonged bear market in real estate. In those areas, the downside risk is minimal. Further, the Baby Boomers will start hitting retirement age in 2011. many of them are planning on relocating to rural areas at that time. Some will be planning on using their equity in their city or suburban home to buy a home outright in a low-cost-of living rural area. Some will be retiring to a locale with great hunting or great fishing, to fulfill a lifelong dream. Others have a dream of owning rural acreage so they can have all the critters they’ve dreamed of, and that big garden. I believe as we approach 2011, property in rural areas will actually increase in value, especially if they have water frontage, are in an area renowned for great hunting or great fishing, or in some other way meet the qualifications of being someone’s retirement “dream” property. Our close family members took our advice and bought a waterfront property in a prime hunting and fishing location in the inland northwest. If the Schumer hits the fan then they are ahead of the game because they are actively preparing and upgrading their retreat. If it doesn’t, then they have still made a great investment for the future by buying their retirement property way ahead of the Baby Boomers.

Meanwhile, in the Coastal Suburbs…

In contrast to rural retreat properties, coastal suburban real estate is clearly in a declining market cycle, where time is on your side. There will be exceptions to the down trend, like the Silicon Valley, where industry is still humming along (at least for now) and where new immigrants are keeping demand high. But within a couple of years, most of the over-bought coastal real estate in the US will resemble Cape Coral Florida, where the listed prices have already dropped 22%, or Phoenix, where the inventory of unsold houses jumped 523% in one year. It is in the formerly “hot market” coastal regions that prices could decline by as much as 40% before the market starts to recover. These areas include San Diego, Orange County, Sacramento, Seattle, much of Florida, the Atlanta metroplex, the entire Washington DC region, eastern New York, and the entire “commuter corridor” portions of New England.

Economist John Mauldin recently reported that the largest number of residential home adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) resets–some $110 billion worth–will occur between October of 2007 and March of 2008, with the peak in March. Come next spring and summer, look for the U.S. home mortgage foreclosure rate to skyrocket. California is already leading the pack on foreclosures, registering their highest foreclosure rate in 11 years. The ARM resets (or “ARM twisting”, as I call it) will only make matters worse. Banks will be repossessing hundreds of thousands of houses and they will doubtless dump most of them on the market. And remember that these are regional markets that already has far too much unsold inventory. (In Sacramento, California, there are so many vacant houses with unkempt swimming pools that public health officials are fearing outbreaks of mosquito-borne illnesses.) I think that we can look for the bottom to fall out of the US coastal real estate market, most likely next summer. And by the summer of 2009, I predict that we will witness some “fire sale” prices, particularly in the inflated price regions where ARMs predominated. Again, for anyone looking to purchase property in coastal regions, time is on your side. Just watch the market patiently. In particular, watch for foreclosures. (Subscribing to a service like Foreclosure.com or RealtyTrac.com is a good way to avoid missing foreclosures as they become available in your chosen retreat area.) Keep your land-buying bankroll in easily-accessible short term paper–preferably something like TIPS. Be patient. It may take as long as eight years for the coastal real estate market to bottom. But when the price is right, pounce.

Today’s market is already a “buyer’s market.” Soon, it will be a genuine bargain shopper’s market. With this in mind, don’ hesitate to make a “low-ball” offer. Make your offer low enough to offset the downside market risk. That way you will be able to sleep at night. As the market deteriorates, offers will be few an far between, so even low offers will be given consideration. And if yours is the only offer, then you might be pleasantly surprised. Assuming there is a property that you really want but the asking price is too high, one tactic is to make a standing offer at a lowball price. Such offers are best made in October or November. Tell the seller that your offer will stand for six months. Odds are that the offer will initially be rejected. But then, if the seller gets nervous about the market and has a mood swing into desperation, the chances are good that the seller will eventually accept your offer. OBTW, your real estate agent will probably discourage you from this sort of tactic. But remember that he makes his living on commissions from home sale closings, so anything that delays a closing is discouraged. They just love that phrase “time is of the essence”. But in today’s market, at least on the coasts, time is on your side.

Letter Re: Michigan’s Upper Peninsula as a Retreat Locale

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I am a recently retired auto worker, electrician by trade, currently live on 5 acres 25 miles north of Detroit. We have plenty of woods and a nice garden area. When we built the house back in 1987 it was out in the boonies, in the past 20 years developers have bought most of the surrounding property and subdivided it. With the exception of the two 5 acre parcels to the north of us we are completely surrounded by houses. Most of the neighbors are nice people who we get along well with. We do get some trespassers from time to time on the property, these are usually suburban people who feel that our woods is a nature sanctuary for them. When we had the major power outage 4 years ago everyone helped each other out, sharing resources. I still do not feel comfortable being so close to Detroit. Having grown up in Detroit I can vividly remember the riots that occurred in the city when I was a small child.
Our family has spent many summer vacations in the Upper Peninsula (UP) and always enjoyed the people and forests of the UP. Recently we have been considering purchasing a parcel of land in the UP and building a retreat there. We are considering the eastern or central portions of the UP. There is plenty of good water, trees, and deer and small game are in abundance. The limiting factors as we see it are the cold winters, distance, and having to cross the Mackinac Bridge. Of course hard winters seem to keep the population down, and in a worst case scenario the Bridge could be secured to limit the number of people.
We have also considered the Thumb area of Michigan. We would be interested in your opinion.- Mark G.

JWR Replies: I’ve brushed on the “U.P.” as a retreat locale a few times in SurvivalBlog, most recently on March 28, 2007, when I wrote:

If you can stand the severe climate, then yes, the U.P. is about as good as it gets for retreat locales east of the Dakotas. For a move to the U.P., plan to budget to build a big greenhouse (with a steep-pitched roof), and big woodshed. You are going to need both! Oh yes. Don’t forget to lay in a large supply of mosquito repellent.

Here are a few notes to expand on those comments: Since I’ve never lived there, I can’t add much more than that. It is probably clear to most SurvivalBlog readers that I prefer low population density rural areas west of the Great Divide. This is for three key reasons: 1.) A more livable climate with a decent growing season, 2.) Less risk of nuclear fallout, and 3.) Much lower population density. In essence, fewer people = fewer problems. I fear that much of the eastern US has so much population that in the event of a societal collapse the wild game will be decimated, and there will be so many hungry people wandering about that looting of the worst sort will quickly ensue. Read my novel “Patriots”and my non-fiction book Rawles on Retreats and Relocation for details. But it bears mentioning that the U.P. is a special case: It is an area with a low population density. It is geographically isolated from the rest of the United States. And it has such severe winters that the climate will do far more for looter control than any ballistic measures.

One other factor is not very widely known: The utility power in the U.P. is provided by Upper Peninsula Power Company (UPPCO), which is one of the most independent utilities in the nation. While normally tied to the grid, it has enough generation capacity that it could conceivably go independent in the event of a short term grid-down situation. But I have my doubts as to whether the natural gas and coal that it uses would last very long. There are some hydroelectric dams and a few natural gas wells in the U.P., but most of their natural gas is piped long distances with the aid of compressor stations. These compressors are nearly all powered by grid power. Quelle dommage! I don’t think that the U.P. could be energy independent in a long term collapse

If you must stay in the Midwest for work or family reasons, then the U.P. is about as good as it gets. As for “the Thumb” of Michigan, it also has its merits. However, it is inferior to the U.P. in that there is no “back door” exit. But I would only feel truly “cornered” there if it were a worst case Golden Horde scenario. That might induce some severe anxiety!

Two Letters Re: Projecting Some Possible Outcomes for The Panic of 2007

Jim,
Very, very well done post, “Possible Outcomes for the Panic of 2007”. I would say you nailed it as good as can be done. However you will not be invited to be a guest on CNBC. – DAV

Jim:

Don’t ignore the compounding effects of a) an energy shock from peak oil, a major gulf hurricane, or geopolitical conflicts, b) natural disasters, particularly major 8.0+ earthquakes on the West Coast or the New Madrid fault, or c) wars and terror attacks driven by causes other than angry debt collectors (e.g. Al Qaeda, false flag attacks). All of these could shift us from the current outcome in your framework to a more painful one. Likewise, do not underestimate the risk of U.S. dollar hyperinflation – it is substantially more than 2%. Spending more money and printing money (or creating its electronic equivalent) is too much of a temptation for 99+% of politicians (Republican and Democrat) who are too cowardly to take desperately needed but painful steps and instead make everything worse with more spending, more regulation (particularly high risk of currency controls and offshore investment accounts), and more government interference in both the economy and our lives.

The most important message is to be prepared. Now is the time to get any long-lead time preparations ordered or built and to get any items that may no longer be available in the near future (particularly imported items). To the extent that you can make your family either partially or fully independent of the grid through a) installing solar electric, wind turbine, and/or small hydro alternative power systems, preferably with battery backups, b) installing combined heat and power or solar hot water systems, c) drilling water wells (even in suburbia where you have city water, d) building greenhouses and other infrastructure to grow your own food (plant and animal), and e) installing diesel backup generators with large fuel tanks, do it now because all of these are good personal investments for hard times. Although the financial markets have only dropped about 8% to 10%, at some point in the near future, one may have to think about non-conventional investment strategies to liquidate IRAs and other financial portfolios and move assets into either real goods (e.g. prepay future expenses), precious metals, or offshore in non-dollar denominated accounts with non-U.S. financial institutions with little or no exposure to derivatives. – Dr. Richard

Letter Re: Kudos for Medical Corps Training

Jim:
I’m writing to you from Caldwell, Ohio where I just completed the Medical Corps “Medical Response in Hostile Environments” field medicine class. Since Medical Corps, the group who offered the course, is one of your advertisers I thought you might like some unbiased feedback on the quality of their training.
This was an outstanding class given by a group of dedicated professionals. The information, and in particular the hands-on practice, was excellent. Our instructors included a BSN, CRNA, DDS, EMT and a former Corpsman/Medical Researcher. Their knowledge; willingness to share; humility; and hard work were impressive. You can really tell that these folks are doing what they do not for love of money, but a sincere desire to help others by sharing and teaching.
As you know Jim, I have no financial or other relationship with this group — just wanted to give you some feedback. Hope you and The Memsahib are well. Best Regards, – K.C.

JWR Adds: K.C. is a good friend of mine who is an EMT in the Western US. I highly recommend the Medical Corps training. The class that K.C. mentioned was their last course for 2007. In coming months I will be posting announcements about their training calendar for 2008. Don’t miss the opportunity to get some great training at a reasonable price.

Odds ‘n Sods:

From France24 (by way of SHTF Daily): Analysts mull contagion from US property market woes. We also read in ChannelNewsAsia: The German state of Saxony has decided to sell the Landesbank Sachsen (SachsenLB), which has been hard hit by the US sub-prime crisis

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DAV mentioned Michael J. Panzner’s Financial Armageddon blog. I was pleased to see that Michael is really digging ito the current liquidity crisis and astutely focusing on derivatives. (That will surely be “the other shoe to drop.” ) I was also delighted to see that he has a link to SurvivalBlog in his blog roll.

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Reader Jeff S. mentioned the QRPme.com web site. Jeff’s comment: “Having a QRP transmitter and receiver stashed away, in cans, for under $50 can’t be a bad thing, eh? Admittedly, you’re looking at “some assembly required”, but I suspect they’re EMP proof as all get out.” My comment: Yes, they’d be relatively EMP proof if they have no antenna attached. But once one is, then the microcircuits would surely be vulnerable.