Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"One of the sad signs of our times is that we have demonized those who produce, subsidized those who refuse to produce, and canonized those who complain." – Thomas Sowell

Note from JWR:

I was quoted in a recent Alternet piece by Scott Thill: Massive Economic Disaster Seems Possible — Will Survivalists Get the Last Laugh? Some of my comments were taken slightly out of context and in one instance mischaracterized, so it might be better for you to read my entire set of responses to Mr. Thill’s interview questions. I should mention that if they were alive today, my great-great grandparents–that came out west via covered wagon in the 1850s–might be miffed to hear that they were branded as part of a “genocidal” movement. They didn’t come out west looking to slaughter Indians. In fact, some of their sons married into a tribe. I have some distant cousins that are bona fide (“tribally enrolled”) Native Americans.

Finding Your Land Rover in the Wild Kingdom of Banking

I grew up in the1960s glued to the television, like most other suburban kids. One of the shows that I enjoyed watching was Wild Kingdom, sponsored by Mutual of Omaha. The wise old narrator, Marlin Perkins, went way out in the hinterboonies of South America and Africa to film his documentaries. But I noticed that he was almost always a detached observer. It was usually his young, muscular assistants that were put in harm’s way, but not Perkins himself, who was safe and sound. He often made comments such as: “‘I’ll watch from the safety of the Land Rover, while Jim wrestles the massive Anaconda. Ouch! Be careful, Jim!”

The Wild Kingdom documentary television show makes a nice analogy for the current banking crisis. (And, coincidentally, it was Mutual of Omaha that last week came to the rescue of two failed banks.) The recent news of numerous bank failures makes it clear that it is now coming down to survival of the fittest, in the banking world. Welcome to another episode of Wild Kingdom, folks. There are a lot of banks that are unfit creatures. The pools of credit have dried up, and these creatures are dying of thirst, and starting to stagger. The vultures are beginning to circle. Its a dangerous world out there, and if you are wise, you won’t be in the thick of it, exposed to risk. Instead, you will find yourself a safe vantage point and simply observe, nod, sip a Mint Julep, and make sagacious comments like: “I told you so”, and “Those poor, deluded souls.”

So where will you find your safe vantage point, from which you can observe the dramatic unraveling of the banking system? What will be your “Land Rover” equivalent? I’ve said it many times before: tangibles. You should shelter the majority of your assets in either productive rural farming or ranching land (that can double as a retreat), or in tangible, easily barterable assets that will hold their value. For the latter, I prefer practical tools, rather than baubles. You can’t eat Krugerrands! In the real world, Beans, Bullets, and Band-aids are much more practical.

In the next few weeks, as the nascent wave of bank failures accelerates, you will likely be hearing a lot about the”Texas Ratio” of any given bank. This is the ratio of a bank’s assets and reserves to its non-performing loans, based upon its financial data. Conduct due diligence on your bank, and cover your assets! It is best to have accounts with several institutions rather than just one.

Start your research by reading this article: Calculating Your Bank’s Health. Also, don’t miss this piece by Mish Shedlock. Based on Mish’s warning, it is clear that you should not depend on Bankrate.com, since their evaluations are glaringly inaccurate. Instead, I recommended Weiss Ratings (now part of TheStreet.com) as a more objective judge of the the safety of banks and insurers. I have recommended Marty Weiss to my consulting clients for many years. Marty and his staff do excellent research and, unlike many of their competitors, they are truly independent and objective.

Letter Re: Advice on Food Storage and Preparation

Hi James:
Thanks for publishing my past essay and thanks again for what you do on your SurvivalBlog. Your web site and the consequent path I’ve traveled since I began reading here has put me in contact with many folks who are pursuing similar courses of action; to take personal action to be prepared, and when possible to discuss and work with others to secure a survivable future.

Please advise me on some of the best and up to date books you’ve found on food storage. Being new to this line of endeavor, I feel our family needs some better ideas on organizing food and storage methods.

My apologies if you’ve already covered this topic or already made such recommendations on your site. All Our Best, – Jon F. in New York

JWR Replies: Don’t worry about redundancy, Joe. The importance of food storage cannot be overemphasized. Most of what you’ll need to know about food storage is available in Alan T. Hagan’s Food Storage FAQ, which available for free download. I may be biased, but I also recommend my own “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, available from Arbogast Publishing. It is geared toward stocking up with little more than what you can find at your local “Big Box” store or supermarket. It includes some extensive tables on the shelf lives of various foods.

One often overlooked aspect of food storage is how to cook and bake with the foods that you’ve stored. Three books on this subject that I strongly recommend buying are:

Cookin’ With Home Storage

and,

Making the Best of Basics. OBTW, if you use this link to Lehmans.com, we will get a credit from Lehman’s when you place an order for any of their products.

and,

The Encyclopedia of Country Living. (I’ve heard that the new 10th Edition of Carla Emery’s book has just been released. Reader Jeff F., mentioned that his local Costco (in Woodinville,Washington) had the latest edition on sale for $17.99. (The list price $29.95). So check your local Costco.

Letter Re: Cigarette Smoking and Preparedness

James,
My husband and I think you are smart and I was hoping for a few words about cigarette dependency (and perhaps alcohol as well).

We are fairly prepared and often strategize on making our plan better. I see cigarette smoking as a weak link. Just when I am going to need his help the most, he will be in the fetal position with withdrawals from the inability to smoke. Or perhaps I will have to deal with lung disease when there are no doctors available. A person can’t successfully hide while smoking. There is extra tension and confusion from quitting cold turkey and that will come when a clear head is most needed.

This is an addiction issue rather than an intellectual one, but if you have advice (either how to get him to quit, or how I can plan around it), I would be very appreciative. Thanks, – Anna

JWR Replies: Thanks for raising this issue! The expense and health issues are tremendous. But even more overwhelming–as you pointed out–is the prospect of going Cold Turkey, starting on TEOTWAWKI+1. In the event of a catastrophe, our stress levels will already be critical, and adding one more major stress could be enough to push some folks to the point of a nervous breakdown.

There are umpteen methods for quitting smoking. I recommend that my readers try as many of them as necessary until you finally quit the habit. Since I’ve never smoked, I’m hardly the one to opine about the “best” method to quit. Perhaps this article is a good starting place. The only advice that I can offer comes to you from my perspective as a Christian: I believe that prayer is very helpful in breaking the bonds of any addiction. Just ashamedly admit your bad habits as the sins that they are, and repentantly ask God to free you from them. Prayer works!

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Gary J. asks: “So, you say you don’t have any room to garden where you live? Maybe you actually have a lot! You might like to do a web search on “vertical gardens” and check out this site: GardensUp.com

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Several readers mentioned a recent blog entry by Charles Hugh Smith: Yes, There Will Be Armageddon: Government Goes Bankrupt

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I spotted this linked at Drudge: U.S. Foreclosures Double as House Prices Decline. I strongly recommend that anyone looking for a rural retreat property should studiously monitor the foreclosure listings, via a service such as Foreclosures.com. There will be some genuine bargains in the next few years.

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Reader Ken R. recommended a “must read” piece by James Turk, posted over at DollarCollapse.com: Last Plane Account. Ken notes: “This article clearly outlines that tangibles including a ranch or farm are the best investment of all when TEOTWAWKI arrives. Your thesis is correct!”

Note from JWR:

By now, most of you have read read that following the spectacular failure of IndyMac Bank, two (effectively, three) more US banks have failed. Clearly, the dominoes are staring to fall, just as I presaged.

The pace at which the wave of bank failures continues is difficult to predict. It depends on a lot of things including public sentiment, which is largely influenced by mass media spin. This could get very ugly, very quickly, so be ready. If you didn’t take my advice months ago, I most strongly suggest that you set aside a reserve of two months worth of greenback cash to cover your regular expenses, post haste! Your banks doors could soon be locked, ATMs shut down, and your online banking services “temporarily suspended.” OBTW, to keep track of subsequent bank failures, see this FDIC web page. And our friend Todd sent us a link to a web site that is already familiar to many SurvivalBlog readers: Implode-o-Meter. It lists all the US banks that have failed since 2006 and has a list of “ailing banks”.

Letter Re: Australian Bank Move Exposes the Magnitude of the Global Credit Collapse

James,
This afternoon, The National Australia Bank (biggest in Australia, by assets) let the cat out of the bag: They have decided to just fess up and mark down every US mortgage CDO, SIV, and so forth in their portfolio by 90%.

What that means is they are coming flat out and saying that all this re-bundled, repackaged, looks like a bond but it ain’t, US real estate paper that was being carried “Off Balance Sheet” and gumming up the works in banks around the world is worthless and they are making it official. (The loans that they represent will not, in their estimation, ever be repaid, hence, loan paper = worthless.)

The world has been tip-toeing around this for the better part of a year. (Off Balance Sheet is bank speak I believe for “It’s here, we paid for it/lent it out, but it’s not really here so don’t count it on our financial statement.” You try that with your friendly IRS guy! Ha! Funny, though, how they magically appeared when the Fed said they would take it as collateral for loans…) That means that all these “Write-downs” we’ve been seeing (i.e; saying that the paper certificate you bought at $10 is now worth $8, $7, $6, $5…etc) the banks have been slowly dribbling out have been understated.

I don’t know if Wall Street will simply ignore this and dish out spin, but I can bet you that the international banks holding large quantities of this stuff denominated in US dollars will not. I’d also bet that large entities overseas who don’t hold this stuff will take it as writing on the wall for other entities that do…and they’ll sell to save their own skins.

That could quite possibly touch off a selling-storm in US dollar denominated assets or firms they fell are at risk from either their own holdings or their vulnerability to downside economic risk come monday, at least in the Asia Pacific markets, if not before.

A wave of bank bankruptcies or “failed banks” could get thrown into the mix as well. This is because these paper “things” being declared more or less worthless effects the overall value of a bank–i.e. the ratio of it’s “Assets” against the amount of debt it is carrying. (leverage) Banks are already leveraged up to their eyeballs, way beyond what Joe citizen would be allowed to do. (which they’ve been trying to delay the inevitable news that this stuff is not an asset any longer.)

I do not know precisely what effect this will have, but I believe it could spark a sell off in US denominated securities and other assets, which will flood the market with US Dollar stuff and the dollar will be in very deep trouble as far as a piece of paper that has value.

Real things of value, like metal and other tangible goods (as opposed to imaginary IOU paper, which is what most securities are) will take on a whole new life. In addition to what I have already done, I am going to endeavor to get my hands on more, soonest. (Not like it will go down in price anyway, no matter what happens.)

I hope that whoever is in charge at the top can keep this under control. I’d say we’ll have a clearer picture by mid-next week where this may be going. – Jim D.

Letter Re: Advice for a Concerned Investor

Greetings, Jim,
I looked at your research list under “Investing”. I have read much of it, and it doesn’t help me in my immediate concern. The sites on this list are good either for big-time or experienced investors, or they deal with specifics such as buying gold.

Where can I get overall, what-to-do-immediately-today, type of advice for the small guy. Say someone has one or two small businesses with maybe $20,000 in checking and another $2,000 in Savings (all in a bank). What to do? Where to keep the money? Is offshore a possibility? Recommended? Anyplace where I can still get a couple of percentage points of interest? Or put 100% in gold? (then how do I eat?).

I’m looking for the quick ‘n dirty answer such as your one-liner: “…get your beans, bullets and band-aids organized before investing…”

I’m getting real nervous, Jim. Thanks, – A.N.

JWR Replies: Keeping in mind my proviso about getting your beans, bullets and band-aids organized before investing anything extra, you might consider
If you need interest income, put your available cash in a relatively safe, inflation-indexed investment vehicle such as US Treasury TIPS.

or,

If you don’t need to rely on interest income, your money is far safer in tangible silver bullion. (Such as pre-1965 mint date non-numismatic (“junk”) circulated US silver dimes, quarters, or half dollars. Readers in other countries should buy the equivalent (such as pre-1953 Australian silver coins, in Australia), or perhaps generic one-ounce .999 fine silver “rounds”.

The recent price correction in silver represents a great buying opportunity, before the bull market resumes its charge.

Odds ‘n Sods:

OSOM mentioned some advice that will be familiar to SurvivalBlog Blog readers, from the Von Mises Institute, in an audio clip: What To Do in the Depression

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Thanks to KAF for sending this: Five Tick Diseases You Should Know About

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Cheryl N. flagged this: Investors Question Financial Sector Rebound. Here is a key quote: “…and several regional banks also posted losses Tuesday or said their profits fell.” But the author neglected to name those banks. Cheryl also found this gem: Death Spiral Financing at Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, WaMu...

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Eric spotted a Bloomberg article that quoted the Federal Reserve that all 12 of its regional bank districts reported “elevated or increasing” price pressures during June and July amid slower economic growth.

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Jack B. sent this link to an article at WorldNetDaily: Report: Surviving EMP to depend on preparation

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“He created all men to be equal, and endowed them with ‘certain unalienable rights,’ among them ‘life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.’ These words, in our Declaration of Independence, also convey the absolute conviction that without God and collective faith in His provision, human beings have no claim to this unprecedented freedom – that they might dream of it, long for it, try to accomplish some of it, but with no authority for it whatsoever.” – Pat Boone

Note from JWR:

In a recent e-mail, reader Andrew D. noted that I post precious little “good news” or lighthearted news in SurvivalBlog. I plead guilty! So I will henceforth do my best to counterbalance some of the vast volume of my Gloom und Doom. Here is a start: A good wheat harvest is expected this year in Ohio. And my sister suggested this bit of humorous news: Japanese chimp runs wild, steals tranquilizer gun. A Drudge reader notes: “He subsequently sold his freedom for a banana.”

Letter Re: Questions from A Not-Quite Convinced Reader

Hi James,
I’m new to reading SurvivalBlog and pages like it. A year ago, I wrote off survivalists, thinking there was no real chance of any kind of collapse. I’ve been changing my mind, though, and would like to know more about why you think such a thing is likely enough to prepare for. I haven’t read “Patriots”, but I’ve added it to my list.

I don’t want to believe in a coming collapse. There have been depressions before, and the fall of civilizations, but as far as I can tell, nothing on the scale of what you seem to talk about. Do you have any good historical examples I could look into? Has this sort of thing happened before?

Also, I think that you believe in this because it suits you. I know you don’t like the kind of power the government has over people, and it seems to me to be wishful thinking that things would happen in a way that makes that government unable to exercise that kind of power anymore. Or maybe it suits your because a collapse would be concrete proof that big government really is unsustainable. Believing in a coming collapse doesn’t suit me, though. I kind of like having my garbage picked up, and police and fire service.

Even though I don’t want to believe it, I’m starting to. Peak Oil seems real, and so much relies on oil. The economy and the currency do seem to be a house of cards after all. But I’m not quite convinced. I still think the odds are overwhelming that we’ll come out okay.

So what should I do? Just read your book? Your blog talks a lot about what to do, but seems fuzzy on why it should be done. Once I really do think there’s a chance of a collapse, I’m sure I can find a lot of information on your blog on how to prepare. I’m just not quite convinced yet. – Robert C.

JWR Replies: Societal collapse is captivating to write about and to discuss, but keep in mind that there is just a very small chance of it occurring in our lifetimes. An economic depression (a la the 1930s) is far more likely–and in fact at present seems almost imminent. This highlights what makes SurvivalBlog such a crucial resource and such a great gathering place for passionate yet polite discussion: By preparing for a “worst case”, SurvivalBlog readers can take anything lesser in stride. It is no wonder that SurvivalBlog has become the Internet’s most popular blog on survival and preparedness topics.

Economic collapses do indeed have historical precedents. Just listen to this audio clip by archaeologist Dr. Joseph A. Tainter on the history of economic collapses. At one time shepherds grazed their flocks in the ruined streets of Rome. That qualifies as genuine TEOTWAWKI, and the same could happen again.

I hope that you enjoy reading my novel. Just keep in mind that it portrays circumstances that are far worse than I actually anticipate (at least with any with likelihood). This was done in part to make the story more dramatic, and as an excuse to educate my readers about a variety of key technologies, techniques, and tactics.

Two Letters Re: Disseminating Local News and Information in a Grid-Down Societal Collapse

Jim,
I think Brian raises a good question and your suggestion about using manual typewriters and mimeograph machines is a great idea. Here’s another one. While watching the the first season of Jericho DVDs, I noticed that in an episode titled “Black Jack” some of the characters went to a barter fair called Black Jack. They had to travel 200 miles to get to this town. The town’s fairgrounds were used as a barter fair location and in the middle (I assume the middle) was a tall board with a platform and a big roll of newspaper on the top. A writer standing on the platform would receive news from various sources and pull down the paper and write the news on it so everyone could see. I was thinking if rolls of paper are not available one could use black boards screwed together. If “black board paint” is available they could paint some 4′ x 8′ sheets of plywood. A place like this could become a very important gathering place for the local community to exchange news, barter for goods and bring some level of normal life back to folks post TEOTWAWKI. Just My Humble Opinion. – Larry in Kansas

 

Dear Jim;
As a former offset press operator with an interest in Christian missions and the underground Church, I’ve spent considerable time in researching simple printing methods. There are multiple methods that are suitable for short-run print production, though many take a degree of skill and a bit of patience to produce.

An excellent reference book for those interested in the manual printing arts is “The Alternative Printing Handbook,” (ISBN 014046509X), published by Penguin, but now out of print. Used copies are available on Amazon, though it’s listed there as “The Art of Printing by Hand.” It covers multiple printing methods for the do-it-yourself, small-scale printer. I’d like to touch on methods that require no power and are accessible to anyone with a little time, patience and a desire to get the word out.

You’ve already mentioned stencil duplicating, which I have used in the past. The Wikipedia article you linked to is an excellent introduction to the theory and history, but doesn’t contain much on actual process. For someone dealing with printed matter containing great quantities of text, this is one of the easiest methods to use. One of the commercial machines would be handy to have, but not required, as a simple flatbed duplicator can be constructed out of basic materials found in most homes. One benefit of many commercial units is that they are hand-cranked, ideal for a grid-down situation. Some electric units also have a hand-crank option as well, giving the best of both worlds. If you go this route, you will need a supply of blank stencils and the thick stencil ink, as well as a typewriter.

Another method, commonly used today for signs and fabric, is screen printing. Again, simple screen printing equipment can be made at home from readily-available materials and the process is not complicated. However, due to the screens used, it is not suitable for small type, but it is a great choice for handbills and posters. See some samples of DIY screen printing at this Instructables page and at this ThreadBanger page. Of course, you don’t have to build it all yourself if you don’t want to. Many art supply and craft stores offer screen printing kits for beginners at very reasonable prices.
Relief printing uses involves carving a reverse image into a wooden block, linoleum, or other substance that can be carved, inking the block and pressing paper into the wet ink. Though a time-tested method that requires little in the way of specialized tools, it has many limitations. It is time-consuming to create the block and takes a steady hand. Small type is difficult, if not impossible. Plus, the difficulty of working in reverse is quite challenging.

A form of relief printing that is within reach of the average person and allows for legible text is rubber stamping. Several manufacturers produce “make your own text” rubber stamp kits that will allow you to produce small blocks of text. It’s similar to the moveable type pioneered by Gutenberg centuries ago, using rubber instead of metal type. The biggest drawback is that producing anything more than a few sentences involves setting the type in a small block, stamping out however many copies you need, removing the type, setting the next block, stamping that, and then repeating… again. It’s time-consuming and tedious work, but for the patient person, it’s better than nothing, cheap to acquire and requires no skills to use. The drudgery involved is also likely to do much to make your writing concise and to the point! Interestingly, the large kits that I would recommend seem to only be offered in the UK. However, eBay is your friend to obtain them.

[Traditional ] letterpress is also an option, but as an older technology, the equipment is hard to come by, and much in demand by artisans who use it for printing and embossing.

Spirit duplication (“ditto” machines) use a dye sheet as a master, which can be typed or hand-written. The dye is released by a solvent and transferred to a sheet of paper. If you recall duplicated sheets in purple ink from your school days, those sheets were made with a spirit duplicator. Used machines can be found on eBay or from time to time on Craig’s List. Look for a hand-cranked model. If you choose this method, you’ll need to lay in a supply of the master dye sheets, as well as the liquid “spirits.”

There are other methods that might be investigated by the curious:
Gocco
Hectography
History of Duplication Machines

The biggest drawback to most of these print methods is that the ones that are best for text tend to require consumables that will be difficult or impossible to replace in a long-term disruption. Since some are older, near-obsolete methods, local sources of supplies are unlikely and may be pricey via mail-order. Even if you have a functioning print method, the availability of paper may also become an issue. Despite these challenges, familiarity with printing methods opens the door to improvisation at a later date: knowledge is power! As inspiration, consider Khristianin, an underground publisher in Soviet-era Russia, which created their first hand-operated offset printing press with gears from a bicycle and motorcycle and rollers taken from a washing machine. Ink was derived from burnt rubber boots and boiled moss, yet their first publication was of the entire New Testament. If such a work could be done in secret under one of the most oppressive modern regimes, there is no reason that it could not be repeated should the need arise.

Remember: “Freedom of the press belongs to the man who owns one.”

For the Kingdom, – Jason R.