Choosing a BOV, by Brian B. in Iraq

There is something to be said about having a defendable retreat far from society with multiple routes to reach it and the preparations that go along with it. But all of those preparations are for naught if you haven’t considered the best way to get from Point A to Point B.
With the ever rising fuel prices that we all are experiencing nowadays, it’s very likely that your Bug Out Vehicle (BOV) will also be your main means of transportation. Unless you are really squared away and have the finances to allow it, many of us simply can not afford a dedicated BOV in addition to our regular daily-use vehicle. That is compounded by the spouse’s need for a vehicle and Lord help you if you have teenage kids. If you feel like you fit into this category, I’m going to give you some advice on what vehicles to purchase and what to look for when you purchase them.

Vehicle Types
The first aspect of the vehicle purchase should be what type of power plant you want, i.e. whether you want a gas or diesel. There are advantage to both that have been talked about and debated for years. In my opinion, the best power plant for a BOV and regular use is a diesel engine. Longevity, fuel economy, parts availability, and the monstrous amount of torque available are only some of the reasons that diesel wins in my mind. There are two types of injection systems that have been offered by the "Big 3" [American light truck] manufacturers. Indirect injection systems spray the fuel into a prechamber where the combustion process begins. This prechamber is also the location of the glow-plugs for help starting the truck in cold climates. This is a very inefficient but durable design. Direct injection systems spray the fuel directly into the cylinder where combustion occurs. This is a much more reliable and efficient system. All diesels offered by the Big 3 today are direct injection.

Once you determine what type of motor you’re interested in, you must then determine whether you want a pickup truck, SUV, or car. Since we’re talking about a vehicle that will need to get us into a remote area across potentially hazardous terrain, a car is not a good choice for BOVs, and whatever you choose should be a four wheel drive. That leaves us with a SUV or pickup truck. Both have advantages and disadvantages and it’s up to the individual to determine which route they follow in this aspect. The good news is that the diesel SUVs and diesel trucks share most of the same drive trains and parts.
For those of us who have decided on a diesel powered vehicle, you’re now faced with choosing from three different manufacturers. GM, Ford, and Dodge. It is recommended that when purchasing a BOV, you want to buy one that has the fewest amount of electronics controlling the vehicle. Electronics are a huge pain in the nether region to diagnose and repair so the fewer potential problems the better.

Manufacturer Options
For the bow tie [company logo] fans, you’re looking for a pre-1993 pickup truck, Suburban, or full size Blazer. GM began using the 6.2L naturally aspirated (non-turbocharged) mechanically injected 6.2L back in 1982 and in 1993 they began changing over to the 6.5L electronically controlled engine. The 6.2L and some 6.5L motors use an indirect mechanically injected system in a V8 design. GM, for a brief time, installed diesel engines in their half ton trucks, but they are rare and hard to find. More common is the _ ton and 1-ton trucks and Suburban’s with diesels. You will have to check the individual trucks to see if they are laden with electronic controls in the 1993 model year vehicles as this was the time when GM switched over form the mechanical to electronic injection systems. This was also the period when they were switching from the 6.2L engine to the 6.5L motor. Some had turbo chargers and some did not. A turbo will give you more power and better mileage so if you can find a turbo charged motor that’s the route to go. There are also aftermarket turbo systems out there that will work even better if you want to spend the extra money for them. These trucks came with a heavy duty 5-speed manual or 4-speed automatic transmission and various trim levels. The older mid-80’s trucks will likely have a 4-speed manual or 3-speed automatic, none of which have an overdrive gear to save on fuel consumption. A 4×4 3/4 ton 7.3L turbocharged truck will likely get around 15 mpg average and go 200k miles between overhauls. All of these trucks were available in regular cab, extended cab, or crew cab (4-door) versions. The GM trucks and Suburban’s also had one additional limiting factor, the front independent suspension, which improved ride quality and handling substantially, but the tradeoff is off-road capability and the ease with which you can install a lift kit on the vehicle.

For the blue-oval [company logo] fans out there, you are limited to F250 and 350 trucks. Beginning in 1985, Ford installed 6.9L non-turbocharged indirect mechanical injection V8 diesels originally developed by International-Harvester for some of their machinery. Starting in 1989 you could get a 7.3L indirect mechanical injection V8 diesel and in 1991 a turbocharger was optional. By 1994, the last year for the old I-H diesels, a turbo was standard. In 1994 Ford phased-out the old mechanical indirect injection motor for the new electronically controlled direct injected turbocharged 7.3L Powerstroke motor. The early diesels were equipped with a 4-speed manual or 3-speed automatic transmission and by 1994 a 5-speed manual was standard and a 4-speed automatic was optional. These trucks are pretty bulletproof and maintenance friendly and get marginal fuel mileage. A 4×4 3/4 ton 7.3L turbocharged truck will likely get around 15 mpg average and go 200k miles between overhauls. All of these trucks were available in regular cab, super cab (extended cab,) or crew cab (4-door) versions. The major problem area for these trucks is the common failure of the glow plug controller and glow plugs, which makes starting these trucks extremely difficult especially on a cold morning.

The last choice is the Dodge Ram 1/2 ton and 1-ton trucks. Beginning in 1989 Dodge began installing a 12-valve 5.9L I6 diesel produced by Cummins with mechanical direct injection. In 1991, Dodge added a turbo charger and intercooler as standard equipment. The intercooler was an industry first and offered a significant increase in performance and economy. These “first generation” Cummins trucks used a Bosch rotary injection pump (called a VE pump) and came with a 5-speed manual or 4-speed automatic transmission in a regular cab or club-cab version. Also, the Cummins trucks do not use glow plus. Instead they utilize a heater grid placed in front of the air intake for the engine which heats up when temperatures fall below 40 degrees to aid in the combustion process. In 1994 Dodge completely redesigned their pickup truck lines and the Cummins got an upgrade as well, commonly called “second generation” Cummins trucks. The VE injection pump was replaced with a new inline P7100 injection pump capable of higher fuel pressures and greater fuel delivery, as well as an upgraded turbocharger. The drive trains were also beefed up with heavier duty 5-speed manual transmissions, transfer cases, and axles. Half way through the 1998 model year, the engine was redesigned with a 24-valve cylinder head and the mechanical injection systems were replaced by electronics to meet emission standards. Also in 1998 the interior of the cab was redesigned and a 4-door Quad Cab version was made available to make it easier to get into the back seats of the extended cab trucks. The 1994 to 1998 trucks are probably the most sought after trucks. A typical 1/2 ton 4×4 truck with 5-speed transmission and 3.55 axle ratio will get 20-22 mpg and these trucks regularly go 300k miles before major work needs to be done. There is one potential problem associated with these trucks. The timing gear cover on the front of the motor uses dowel pins to line up the cover when being installed. Unfortunately, in some cases this dowel pin can vibrate and back out of their spot falling down through the timing gear case causing lots of damage before ending up in the oil pan. There are common and inexpensive fixes available for this problem. One advantage to these trucks is the ease with which you can increase the power output of the engine. Replacement parts are readily available for these trucks as well and for those who like more power, performance parts are easy to come by to let you make well over the power levels reached by the newer electronically controlled trucks.

Inspection
Once you’ve made your decisions between all of the above options and have found a potential match, there are a few common areas that you need to inspect before making an offer.
First, check the oil. Because of the amount of detergents in diesel engine oil, it’s common for it to be pitch black after only a few hours of operation. When you check the oil, look to see if there is any discoloration or a scent of burnt radiator fluid which will indicate a leak of coolant from the head gaskets. Check the radiator hoses to make sure they are firm, but still pliable. The engine coolant should be a greenish color and free of rust. Brake fluid should also be free of contaminants. Walk to the passenger side of the truck and have someone start the vehicle while you observe the tailpipe. Most older diesels will puff out some blue and/or black smoke on startup and that’s normal. You’re looking for a large cloud of smoke that takes several minutes to go away. This is an indication of a faulty glow plug controller, glow plugs (Ford & GM) or grid heater (Dodge), or internal problems. With the engine running check the transmission fluid level if it’s an automatic. It should be full, have a pinkish color and not smell burnt. Ask the owner if the engine has ever been “turned up.” Some owners add power without the required upgrades of intake and exhaust and there could be potential damage. Turn the vehicle off and craw under the truck. You’re looking for any large amounts of oil leaking out of the engine or transmission. Ask the owner when the last time the transmission fluid and rear axle fluid was changed and if they have the maintenance records fro the vehicle. Most of the time you can tell a vehicle that has been well maintained early off. If it’s been abused, buyer beware. That’s not to say don’t buy the vehicle, just don’t pay a lot for it as there will be lots of things that will need to be inspected and/or replaced. Also check the sheet metal in the fender wells and under the cab to make sure the floor is not rusting away.

Next, take the vehicle for a test drive. Make numerous stops and starts and turns in both directions. Listen for any noises that are out of the ordinary. Allow the engine to warm up and drive it hard to see if a problem presents itself. Find an empty dirt lot somewhere where you can test the 4×4 system. Ensure that the 4×4 system will engage and disengage properly. With the truck in 4-high drive around in a figure 8 to make sure there are no problems with the front drive train. Put the transfer case in 4-low and floor the truck to make sure that the transfer case will not pop out of gear, an indication that the transfer case is shot.

Upgrades
Once you purchase a vehicle, then you’re going to have to make it into a truck BOV. If you’re in an especially remote area with a lot of off-road driving required, the suspension will need to be modified for off-road use. No, you do not need a 14” lift kit and 44” paddle-wheel tires. 33” to 35” tires will get you anywhere you need to go. Wetter climates may require a more aggressive tread so use your judgment. A well built steel bumper for the front and rear is a must. This may be necessary for pushing things out of the way, such as a Prius or a fallen tree. Aftermarket fuel tanks that rest in the bed are a common addition. These tanks will allow you to carry anywhere from 50 to 150 gallons of additional fuel (which needs to be treated if it’s sitting up for a long time.) Other additions that would be useful is an onboard air compressor system, an onboard suspension systems if you’re planning on hauling a bug-out trailer with you, GPS receivers in the cab, high-powered driving lights, etc. Your local conditions will warrant a different combination of modifications than other areas. Local 4×4 shops in your area can probably give you the best advice on what you will need to do to your particular vehicle.

Conclusion
It is up to the individual to determine what works best for him. It’s also worth stating that in different areas of the country, one vehicle manufacturer may be more common and another one may be non-existent. If that’s the case, it may not be wise to have a Dodge truck where everyone drives Chevrolets. Conversely, if you need a truck for your personal use and you have a wife and three kids to move about, it may be a wise move to have a Chevrolet/GMC pickup truck and a Suburban with identical drive trains. The point is, decide what works best for you, plan accordingly, and work the plan. My next installment will cover what you should check and look for when inspecting a potential BOV.

Letter Re: Updated Nuclear Targets in the United States

Jim,
This letter is in response to your posting today regarding potential nuclear targets. Overall, a very good question by DFer, and your wise and reasonable response is much appreciated. As one of the few people on the Internet who actually discuss potential US nuclear targets, based on historical government documentation, I’m glad to see you and a few others (Shane Connor, Joel Skousen, etc.) not letting this important point of history be forgotten. It’s another visit to an old post of yours in June of 2006.

Lawrence’s response in that post was “old 1960s era targeting maps will still give the survivalist a good idea of where not to be when TSHTF”. That still applies. Discussion on your site and many others about other places not to be (mass gatherings such as sports events, malls, national monuments and the like) is also worthy of consideration, in our current trend of monthly terror threats, such as today’s announcement of Osama Bin Laden’s latest video threatening Europe. (And yes, .mil is very concerned on both sides of the pond).

I have had a few “unofficial” e-mails from government contacts in the last couple of years (since 2005…most [of them] working on government contracted publications for internal use) who have asked for some of my non-public collected data information on targeting, and the short online Q&A with them has led me to believe that the pot of hot water we frogs have been living in has had the heat turned up, meaning this…new and updated lists of potential worry are prepared, and probably still being tuned and polished up, as the daily world threat thermometer rises and falls.

I seriously doubt the general public will see these lists, maps, locations, and target types for many years to come, since the external threat to US soil is still at such a ragged and ever concerned pace. It took only two years to get the National Attack Planning Base 1990 released from FEMA by the FOIA, thanks to a friend of mine who found my document wish list a few years ago. While just over 20 years old, it’s still the measuring stick for any reports that follow.

FEMA 196 is still the only consumer document available directly from FEMA that ever gave fairly detailed info (to a generalized county level) of potential US targets, and since US threats have risen greatly since 9/11, it may well be the only document that FEMA, or succeeding agencies, ever produce on that subject. What we can learn from the currently available info, is why the original targets were targets, and what might make new locations future targets. It takes a bit of work on our part, but it’s not any more difficult than basic

I’ve expanded the target list on SurvivalRing a bit with more discussion of what makes a target, and have added a comments section to the web page to answer specific questions that readers and visitors may have about the old targets, and potential new targets. SurvivalBlog readers might like to discuss our current target list, or have more info they’d like to bring to the table.

Since I’m still attending college full time, I have a lot of my site projects on the back burner, but one near the top of the list is a mashup of my blogging software, with Google Maps, extended interactive areas, and a lot deeper discussion, research, and updating on targeting, safe areas, and all the details you mention in your response (weather patterns, population demographics, etc). I’m finishing up an atmospheric science class this semester that really opened my mind to global weather patterns more than ever, and the work that Shane Connor did with Transpacific Fallout is going to be seeing an update from me in the spring.

Keep up the great work, and thanks for all you do. You’re one of the most rational minds I’ve found on the web when it comes to the simple work of helping others understand why we need to think about dealing with whatever the future brings. – Rich Fleetwood, Founder of SurvivalRing.org

Odds ‘n Sods:

Frequent contributor Eric S. flagged this article: Forecast: U.S. dollar could plunge 90 percent

   o o o

I dropped by Kit’s blog after a long absence (not Kit’s fault–it was all my fault for being busy with deer and elk season), and saw that she and “Darling John ” (a.k.a. “Commander Zero”) have finally announced that they are going to tie the knot. I predict there will be a lot of heavily-armed guests in attendance.

   o o o

Northern Tool & Equipment (one of our Affiliate advertisers) is offering sitewide free gift cards with purchases over $100. This limited-time promotion is already active and goes through Monday, December 10th. You will need to enter keycode 105200 in order to receive your free gift card.

   o o o

“The Werewolf” (our correspondent in Brazil) mentioned the new book “Day by Day Armageddon“

Note from JWR:

Three days left! The special 33% off sale on the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing is ending soon. To get the special sale price, all orders must be placed online or postmarked by November 30th. Get a copy for yourself, or one or more to give as Christmas gifts for your relatives that have their heads in the sand.

Letter Re: Detecting the Presence or Absence of Grid Power

Editor:
If your retreat is isolated and you can not see any of your neighbors buildings, then how do you know when the power grid is back on (re-energized)? That might not be clear, so this is what happens: We have many power outages per year, which can last from hours to days, last year power was out for (9) nine days. So I disconnect from the grid, and start the generator. I have no way to know when the line is fixed. And with the price of fuel; I am wondering is there some do-dad, thing-a-ma-gig, like a light I could mount in a tree near the main line that would pick up electromagnetic energy when the line is hot. Or some trick one of your readers may know about. Thank you, – D.V.

JWR Replies: Here are a few possible solutions for you:

1.) Most of the common transfer switches for home generator sets (“gensets”) do not disconnect the grid power. Instead, the switch is in a sub-panel box with breakers for several circuits that you want energized all the time. It acts as a “mains” disconnect for that sub-panel only. Unless you have a large genset capable of powering everything in your house, then that is typically just your refrigerator-freezer and a few lights. Therefore, any electrical devices or lights that are on the other circuits will be energized when the grid power is restored. You can simply leave a table lamp and a radio on one of these circuits, both switched in the “on” position. The light and radio will come on when the grid power is restored. This of course won’t be possible if you have one of the very basic “Wylie E. Coyote” or “Disaster Cord” type system without a dedicated sub-panel. (I DO NOT recommend this type of arrangement!)

Important Safety Note: As previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, it is absolutely essential that you do not inadvertently “back feed” the grid power line, or you might accidentally fry the hapless utility employee that is working on restoring your power!

2.) Many power meters have a status light, showing that the incoming grid power line is “hot.” The easiest solution is to ask your local utility if they have any meter boxes available with status lights. They may be able to install one of these for you free of charge or at nominal cost.

3.) If your utility can’t or won’t install a meter panel with a status light, then any qualified journeyman-level electrician could rig a status light the meter box that should meet the approval of your local power utility. (Of course be sure to ask, first, since utilities have a long tradition of suspicion of any modifications to meter panels. They don’t like giving power away!)

4.) If your utility doesn’t allow an indicator light at the meter panel, then you can have one rigged at your indoor breaker panel to show the presence of “mains”external power. It can be something as simple as a small neon tube. No muss, no fuss. Again, any electrician can do this for you in just a few minutes if you let them know what you need in advance of when they come to your house.

For those if us that live in the boonies that have photovoltaics or other alternate power sources, there is also an inverse corollary to your question: detecting when the grid power goes off. (Many of us wouldn’t notice, otherwise.) I found a web site with a fairly simple power failure alarm circuit diagram and assembly instructions. (This is a little more complicated than just showing the presence of grid power. To announce the loss of grid power requires a relay and a battery, as well as a lamp or some sort of alarm horn/buzzer/annunciator.)

I should mention that there is nothing like the joy of watching a power meter run backwards–knowing that for more than half of of each year that the power company will be paying you for power. Selling power back to power utility is possible throughout the United States. However, most pay you only the “avoided cost” rate–typically 2 or 3 cents per kilowatt hour–rather than at the same rate that you buy it from them. The latter is called “net metering” or “net billing.” The utilities that presently pay at the net metering rate are in the minority, but I predict that it will be legislatively mandated within a few years.

There are essentially three types of photovoltaic (PV) power systems: 1.) Stand-alone, 2.) Grid-tied, and 3.) Grid-connected but stand-alone capable. Of the three, the only type that I do not recommend is grid-tied. These systems–typically without a battery bank–leave you vulnerable whenever the power grid goes down. If you want to sell power back to your utility, yet still be self-sufficient, then I recommend that you install “grid-connected but stand-alone capable” system. (The same would apply to wind power and micro-hydro systems.) For details on alternate energy system hardware, siting/exposure, and system sizing, contact Ready Made Resources. They graciously offer alternate energy system consulting free of charge.

Letter Re: Locations of Costco and Other “Big Box” Membership Stores

Jim,
I often see references [in SurvivalBlog] to Costco [stores]. I have never seen one of their stores. Are they in Canada? I did a search, that was the only place within 50 miles of here that they have a store. – Sid, near Niagara Falls

JWR Replies: There are now Costco stores throughout the United States and selected locations in Canada, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Taiwan, and the UK. Here is a locator web page for Costco stores. Another “big box” membership store chain with a very similar product selection are the Sam’s Club stores. Here is a locator map for Sam’s Club stores. (They seem to have more locations in upstate New York than Costco.)

OBTW, I describe shopping at “Big Box’ stores for storage foods, cleaning supplies, and other retreat logistics essentials in my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course

Letter Re: The Upright Spike in Technology Dependence–Changing “Grid-Down” from an Inconvenience to TEOTWAWKI

Jim:
I had to laugh when I read this in your recent SurvivalBlog article: “Well, let’s just hope that Boise, Idaho is not a nuclear target. That way, presumably Micron Technology can re-seed the world with chips. (That is, if they will still have a fab facility in Boise. Most chip makers are in the process of outsourcing their fabs. Many of them are being offshored to China .)”

I’m a mid-level manager in the computer industry. In the past month we have interviewed two engineers currently employed by Micron Technology. They are looking for jobs because “the place is getting ready to send most of their production overseas.” I asked how soon. “Two years at the latest, then they will no longer be profitable with 200mm wafers and will need to switch over to 300mm wafers. Which means a new production facility and the old one can’t be reused. Even the buildings are too short to work with the new wafer [production] design.” So a whole new plant needs to be built and they are already talking about how Micron needs to be “closer to the customer to compete.” Most of their customers are in China and Asia. Best Regards,- B.

Odds ‘n Sods:

When banking is in crisis, no one wants to be parted from their cash

   o o o

RBS sent us this: Banks Gone Wild by Paul Krugman of The New York Times. And for even more financial gloom and doom, see: “A Generalized Meltdown of Financial Institutions” But wait, there’s more, courtesy of reader SJC: Investors fear new turmoil

   o o o

Both Markus and Carl suggested a link to an article on the 100 things that disappeared in Sarajevo during the war. Carl’s comment: “It is a great list for beginning preps and a gut check for everyone else.” Coincidentally, RBS sent us these two links: A Cookbook for War and The Sarajevo Survival Guide.

   o o o

Safecastle is having a 45% off closeout sale (for Safecastle Royal buyer’s club members) on all Maxpedition gear presently in stock.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"I, however, place economy among the first and most important republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared." – Thomas Jefferson

Note from JWR:

The 33% off sale for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course ends in just four days. Be sure to place your order online, or have it postmarked no later than Friday, November 30th.

The Upright Spike in Technology Dependence–Changing “Grid-Down” from an Inconvenience to TEOTWAWKI

If someone were to construct a chart showing human dependence on technology, it would portray an essentially a flat line from Biblical Times to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. From there, there the line would curve upward slightly until the 1890s, when the line would tilt up to perhaps a 10 degree slope. The curve would further steepen in the 1950s (with the advent of computers). The line would then turn into an almost upright spike, starting in the 1990s.

In this new era, with each passing year, our dependence of electronic technologies grows greater and greater. Some technologies, such as microcircuit (“chip”) design and fabrication require not only electricity, but dozens of foundational technologies to keep them operational. In effect, it now takes countless thousands of existing microcircuits to make other microcircuits. That leads me to wonder: If there were a full scale nuclear exchange with large EMP effective radius “footprints” in populated regions, how would the chip industry ever recover? Even if the chip fabrication facilities (“fabs”) avoided physical destruction from nuclear blasts, how would they get all of their computer-controlled machinery back on line? Well, let’s just hope that Boise, Idaho is not a nuclear target. That way, presumably Micron Technology can re-seed the world with chips. (That is, if they will still have a fab facility in Boise. Most chip makers are in the process of outsourcing their fabs. Many of them are being offshored to China.)

Beyond these “worst-case scenario” imaginings, let’s consider something much more likely: extended power failures in North America, caused by severe weather, an oil embargo, or civil disruption. Given our current level of technological dependence, what would life be like in a “Grid Down” America? If the power grid goes down for a period of more than a week, all bets are off. Consider the following:

If “grid down” most towns and cities will be without municipal (utility) drinking water.
If “grid down” for more than a month there will likely be huge outflows of refugees from cities.
If “grid down” there will possibly be mass prison escapes.
If “grid down”, virtually all communications will go down. Telephone company central offices (COs) do have battery back-up. These are huge banks of 2-volt deep cycle floating batteries. But those batteries will only last about a week. Backup generators were not installed at most COs, because no situation that would take the power grid down for more than 72 hours was ever anticipated. (Bad planning, Ma Bell!) Thus, if and when the grid goes down then hard-wire phones, cell phones, and the Internet will all go down. When both the power grid and phone systems goes down, law and order will likely disintegrate. There will be no burglar alarms, no security lighting or cameras, and no reliable way to contact police or fire departments, and so forth.
If “grid down” for an extended period anyone with a chronic health problem may die. There will be no power for kidney dialysis machines or breathing machines for respiratory patients, no re-supply of oxygen bottles for people with chronic lung conditions, no re-supply of insulin for diabetics, et cetera.
If “grid down”, most heaters with fans won’t work, even if you can bypass the thermostat. And pellet stoves won’t work at all!
If “grid down”, then “seasonal affected disorder” will seem mild compared to the depressing effects of spending 13+ hours a day in the dark during winter months—especially at latitudes north of the 45th Parallel.
If “grid down”, there will be no 911 to call—no back-up—no “cavalry coming over the hill” in the nick of time. You, your family, and your contiguous neighbors will have to independently handle any lawlessness that comes your way.
If “grid down,” sanitation will be problematic in any large town or city. Virtually everyone will be forced to draw water from open sources, and meanwhile their neighbors will be inadvertently fouling those same sources. I heard one survivalist lecturer state that a grid down situation would “almost immediately reduce sanitation in the U.S. to Third World standards.” I think that he underestimated the impact of an extended power grid failure. At least in the Third World they are accustomed to living with poor water and sanitation. Here in the U.S., we don’t even have Third World facilities or folkways. With the grid down and city water disrupted, toilets won’t flush and most urbanites and suburbanites will not dig outhouse or garbage pits! Furthermore, the long-standing Third World village norm of “Draw your drinking water upstream and wash your clothes downstream” will be ignored. A “grid down” condition could be a public health nightmare within a week in metropolitan regions.

Lastly, consider one implication that most people have never heard of: even residential piped (utility) natural gas service is dependent on the power grid. To push gas through the many miles of pipeline, gas companies depend on electrically-powered compressor stations to pressurize the distribution pipelines. It is important to distinguish between local (natural) compression versus long distance grid-powered compression. People living right near gas fields will benefit from the natural wellhead compression and thus will probably have continuing gas service in a long term grid-down situation, whereas those living farther away will not.

In the 1950s, a power failure was essentially an inconvenience for most businesses. They used manual adding machines, typewriters, and cash registers. They did their accounting in big bound paper books. But now, the majority of manufacturers, distributors, and retailers cannot function at all without grid power. I predict that they will send their employees home. If the grid stays down for more than 10 days, there will be either “unpaid holidays” declared, or good old-fashioned layoffs.

Commerce will grind almost to a halt, because cash registers won’t work, and computerized “Just in Time” (JIT) inventory control systems will be offline. Some enterprising small businesses will keep their doors open, but they will be in the minority. Most of the major retailers will not be able to cope. Have you noticed that most of the big retail stores built since the 1980s are essentially windowless? Their corporate management succumbed to the promised “efficiency” and “economy” of the concrete slab tilt-up architecture that has become ubiquitous in the United States. Without power, these big windowless boxes won’t even have enough light for anyone to see the shelves! Surely, most of them will have to lock their doors.

The bottom line? Be prepared. Avoid urban areas and the suburbs. That is where most of the trouble will be. To avoid the social upheaval, ideally, you should live year-round at a well-stocked retreat farm or ranch with plentiful water that is in a sparsely-populated region that is well-removed from major metropolitan areas. If the grid goes down for more than a week, expect riots and looting. If it is more than a month, you can expect total anarchy. Be prepared to live self-sufficiently. Get your food and fuel storage squared away. Fence a large garden plot and practice gardening and canning each summer.

Be prepared to defend your retreat. To be practical, this will necessitate doubling-up or tripling up with neighbor to provide round-the-clock security. (Much as I described in my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse.”

Keep some extra items on hand for barter and charity. If the grid goes down, you may be surprised how quickly your barter goods come into play.

Letter Re: Advice in Investing in a Belt-Fed Semi-Auto 7.62mm NATO

Mr. Rawles:
I am interested in diversifying out of the dollar and was thinking of buying a belt-fed semi auto [as a “tangible” investment.] (I already have the rest of my gear, guns, and food storage well squared away.) Since 7.62 [mm NATO military surplus ammunition] is less expensive than [commercially loaded] .308 [Winchester], can you recommend a belt fed 7.62 semiautomatic? Any that you would avoid? Thanks! – S.

JWR Replies: I would recommend buying a semiauto-only Browning Model 1919A4, since they have legendary “bomb proof” robustness, great versatility in mounting, and broad chambering convertability. I recommend that you buy one that is already set up primarily for 7.62mm NATO, with a spare .30-06 barrel and perhaps also a spare barrel for 8×57 Mauser. (Although the supply of cheap surplus 8mm ammo has dried up, at least for the time being.) Cartridge conversion requires different feed mechanism parts, a different booster (nosepiece), and of course a different barrel. If you are planning to ser up your gun for multiple calibers, then buy all Israeli surplus links, since they are the most versatile. (The less expensive .30-06 links work only with that particular cartridge.)

The TNW, Cole Distributing, and Ohio RapidFire (“ORF”) brand guns all work fine. There are several other M1919 makers, but I cannot vouch for any them. The M1919A4s presently on the market typically use ex-Israeli parts kits. The Cadillac of the breed (pardon the mixed metaphor) is the Valkyrie Arms 1919A4. That is the brand that I once owned, as the”accessory” for the turret on my Ferret scout car. (Well, actually it was more the other way around: The Ferret was the armored platform for transporting the M1919.) However, I’ve heard that they are no longer being produced by Valkyrie.

I consider semi-auto M1919A4s a very good investment, since the supply of available parts kits is definitely drying up. Once those are gone, the prices will doubtless escalate rapidly. (The same thing happened with the semi-auto Browning M2 HB .50 caliber belt-feds. They now fetch $10,000 to $14,000 each, and just a complete M2HB BMG parts kit (sans side plate) can cost $7,000. I also recently saw just a Stellite M2 .50 barrel offered for sale for $1,200!) Since the law of supply and demand is inescapable, I’ve concluded that a semi-auto .50 Browning would be a “sure bet” as an even better investment than a M1919.

For versatility, you might also get an “A6” (buttstock and bipod) conversion kit. Original US military tripods are getting scarce and very expensive, so if you aren’t a purist, then get an German MG-42 tripod and M1919 pintle adapter.

To read umpteen details and user comments on Model 1919 Browning-family belt-fed guns, spare parts, headspacing adjustment, manuals, tripods, T&E mechanisms, canvas, and other accessories, see: www.1919A4.com

In answer to your question about what models to avoid: I would not recommend buying any of the semi-auto M60 variants, since they are too prone to breakage.

OBTW, if there is a SurvivalBlog reader that would like to invest a bigger semiauto-only belt fed, I have a friend that is selling a TNW-built M2 HB .50 Browning with several barrels, tripod, links, and ammo as a package for around $12,000. It would be a “private party” sale only if the buyer lives in Idaho. (If outside of Idaho, the transfer would have to be shipped to an FFL holder.) Contact me via e-mail if you are a serious cash buyer and I will forward your e-mail to the seller. Since this a sale intended to generate needed cash, no trades will be considered.

Odds ‘n Sods:

From those Enlightened Social Engineers that run San Francisco: Should fireplace fires be banned? Well, there goes your last hope of self-sufficiency. (Not that “Babylon By The Bay” would be very survivable WTSHTF, anyway.)

   o o o

Trading in derivatives slows to a trickle

   o o o

RBS spotted this one: Dallas-Fort Worth food pantries facing shortage

   o o o

A fascinating video clip from a 2002 TED conference: Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end