Letter Re Preparing for a Dam Breach

Howdy Mr. Rawles,
The article written by A.B.S. is very well written and gives one a lot to think about. There is an item for one’s Bug Out Bag (BOB) that I find useful in flood prone scenarios, but is rarely mentioned: A Personal Flotation Device (PFD).

A PFD or ‘life jacket’ for each member of your party with their BOB in flood prone areas or situations is cheap insurance to keep you afloat. Granted, when you are in the drink, things are already going wrong, but staying afloat would be a key to staying alive!

Also do not forget to make sure that each PFD fits the intended wearer correctly. For the children one of those PFDs that keep them face up should they find themselves in the water will give the parents peace of mind. Love the blog and the books! Wishing You 73s – ZA

Odds ‘n Sods:

Eric found this one: Stressed banks borrow record amount from Fed. And coincidentally, reader Jeff S. sent us a link to a Fed chart that he calls “The Hockey Stick of Doom.”

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Eric also sent us this: Small farming is the future.

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Paul from Kentucky flagged this: Zimbabweans dug out coins squirreled away years ago. The government has lopped off 10 zeros, with the new currency! The article begins: “Zimbabweans dug out coins squirreled away years ago in jars and cupboards and headed for the shops, where lines built up as overburdened tellers more accustomed to counting mounds of hyper-inflated dollar notes instead were juggling silver.” Paul’s comment: “I guess this is what happens when paper money is worthless. Back to using silver. Does this ring a bell for what you have been warning us about could happen here, with the US dollar?”

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EMB found this interesting site–a company that makes secret doorways.

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Cheryl N. found us three interesting economic commentaries : The Con In Central Bankers’ Confidence, Credit Crunch Reaches Downward Spiral Critical Mass, and from The Mogambo Guru Inflationary Horror Movie — Inflation at 12.6% in June!

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The decisive Revolutionary battle of Saratoga was fought near there on the bluffs and hills overlooking the Hudson in 1777. You wonder what the heroes of that battle would think of what we have become. What would they make of the word "consumer" that we use to describe our relation to the world? What would they think of excellent river bottom-land that is now barely used for farming – or, where it is still farmed (dairying if anything), of farmers who will not even put in a kitchen garden for themselves because it might detract from their hours of TV viewing?" – James Howard Kunstler

Note from JWR:

Today we present the first entry for Round 18 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. Starting with this round, the contest prize list has been expanded. The prizes now include:

First Prize: The writer of the best contributed article in the next 60 days will be awarded two transferable Front Sight  “Gray” Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!

Second Prize: A course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing

Round 18 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Arthropod Borne Diseases, by A.B.S.

Recent attention on the West Nile Encephalitis outbreak has brought the need for more education and awareness to the threat of insects transmitting diseases to both humans and the livestock we use for food. Unfortunately most people are fixated on the West Nile problem and continue to ignore the myriad of other pathogens that can be transmitted by insects and other arthropods in North America. Most of the pathogens that are transmitted by arthropod vectors are of low virulence and due to exposure most of us have developed an immunity to them long ago. Unfortunately, with the migration of much of the population into areas of the country that had until recently been wilderness, the increasing introduction of new species of both pathogens and vectors into native ecosystem, and an increase in global temperatures, that is changing much of the habitat, an ever increasing number of cases are being seen in hospitals nation-wide. In this article we will discuss just a few of these diseases.

Plague
Many well known insect borne diseases occur in North America, but in such small numbers that most of the population is blissfully unaware anything is happening. One such pathogen is Plague. Better known as The Black Plague this bacterial disease swept through Europe and Asia during the middle ages killing an estimated 34 million people. While such large outbreaks are no longer a significant threat, several small outbreaks and single cases do appear annually. Most commonly transmitted by the bite of an infected flea, usually the Oriental Rat Flea. The largest known reservoir of Plague in North America is found in Prairie Dog towns around the Four Corners region. With 10-15 human cases in the U.S. and up to 3,000 human cases worldwide annually, Plague can manifest itself in any of three different forms.

Pneumonic plague occurs when Y. pestis infects the lungs. This type of plague can spread from person to person through the air. Transmission can take place if someone breathes in aerosolized bacteria, which could happen in a bioterrorist attack. Pneumonic plague is also spread by breathing in Y. pestis suspended in respiratory droplets from a person (or animal) with pneumonic plague. Becoming infected in this way usually requires direct and close contact with the ill person or animal. Pneumonic plague may also occur if a person with bubonic or septicemic plague is untreated and the bacteria spread to the lungs.

Bubonic plague is the most common form of plague. This occurs when an infected flea bites a person or when materials contaminated with Y. pestis enter through a break in a person’s skin. Patients develop swollen, tender lymph glands (called buboes) and fever, headache, chills, and weakness. Bubonic plague does not spread from person to person.

Septicemic plague occurs when plague bacteria multiply in the blood. It can be a complication of pneumonic or bubonic plague or it can occur by itself. When it occurs alone, it is caused in the same ways as bubonic plague; however, buboes do not develop. Patients have fever, chills, prostration, abdominal pain, shock, and bleeding into skin and other organs. Septicemic plague does not spread from person to person.

Mosquito Borne Diseases
The majority of the U.S. population is totally unaware of the majority of insect transmitted diseases. While West Nile is now a common household term, the more commonly occurring Jamestown Canyon, LaCrosse, St. Louis, Western Equine, Eastern Equine, and Venezuelan Encephalitis have never been heard of by most. These mosquito transmitted viruses are seen every year in the U.S., but due to the fact that most of the cases are asymptomatic or have very mild symptomology, coupled with the fact that most cases are in rural, often economically poor settings, these diseases get very little press. Though most cases are mild, acute cases begin with flu like symptoms that then can progress to inflammation of the brain. This can lead to coma or even death. Survivors of acute encephalitis often suffer varying degrees of brain damage.

Also receiving little press is the increasing occurrence of malaria that originates U.S. nationals that have picked up the disease while overseas and from infected persons that have recently migrated to the U.S. Several of these individuals have entered the country illegally, and therefore bypass needed healthcare due to fear of capture. This scenario is also being observed with several other diseases.
Dengue Fever also known as “break bone fever” is another mosquito transmitted disease that is of concern. Two versions of the disease can occur, with one version being a hemorrhagic fever. Dengue fever usually starts suddenly with a high fever, rash, severe headache, pain behind the eyes, and muscle and joint pain. The severity of the joint pain explains the name “breakbone fever”. Nausea, vomiting, and loss of appetite are common. A rash usually appears 3 to 4 days after the start of the fever. The illness can last up to 10 days, but complete recovery can take as long as a month. Older children and adults are usually sicker than young children.

Most dengue infections result in relatively mild illness, but some can progress to dengue hemorrhagic fever. With dengue hemorrhagic fever, the blood vessels start to leak and cause bleeding from the nose, mouth, and gums. Bruising can be a sign of bleeding inside the body. Without prompt treatment, the blood vessels can collapse, causing shock (dengue shock syndrome). Dengue hemorrhagic fever is fatal in about 5 percent of cases, mostly among children and young adults.

Chagas
One disease that is becoming more of a concern among my fellow entomologists is Chagas Disease also known as American Trypanosomiasis. This disease is transmitted by the >Kissing Bug=, which blood feeds on the human victims as they sleep, usually biting the host on the face. The bugs are found in houses made from materials such as mud, adobe, straw, and palm thatch in Central and South America. During the day, the bugs hide in crevices in the walls and roofs. During the night, when the inhabitants are sleeping, the bugs emerge. After they bite and ingest blood, they defecate on the person. The person can become infected if T. cruzi parasites in the bug feces enter the body through mucous membranes or breaks in the skin. The unsuspecting, sleeping person may accidentally scratch or rub the feces into the bite wound, eyes, or mouth.

The parasite causes damage to the cells of the heart. It is estimated that as many as 18 million people in Mexico, Central America, and South America have Chagas disease, most of whom do not know they are infected. Another 500,000 people in the U.S., many of whom are illegal aliens, are thought to have the disease. Since the insects that transmit this disease are also found throughout much of the U.S. the possibility of transmission does exist.

Though not common, human cases of Chagas are appearing more often in the U.S. with many more veterinary cases in dog and raccoon populations. These animal populations then act as a reservoir for the parasite. While it is commonly thought that better housing found in the U.S. will prevent widespread rates of infection, this is not entirely accurate. A recent infection of an infant that occurred in central Tennessee happened when the insect entered the patients’ home. The infants mother happened to observe the insect on the child, and having just watched a broadcast about Chagas on television, recognized the insect. The mother requested a parasite screening by the family physician that isolated the organism. The child was then able to get proper medical care. A check of wildlife and pet populations in the area around the residence found high infection levels among the animals. If the mother hadn’t seen the insect, the child could have been infected for years without proper treatment. Transmission can occur when someone is bitten on camping trips as well as in the home. The disease can also be transmitted through blood transfusions, organ transplants, to fetus during pregnancy, and by eating feces contaminated food.

Ehrlichiosis
The presence of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, Lyme Disease, and Tick Fever is fairly well known by many people throughout the U.S. Unfortunately these tick transmitted diseases are just the tip of the iceberg.

One tick borne disease becoming increasingly common is Ehrlichiosis. Human ehrlichiosis due to Ehrlichia chaffeensis was first described in 1987. The disease occurs primarily in the southeastern and south central regions of the country. To date six species of bacteria are known to cause Human Ehrlichiosis and are transmitted by three know tick vectors, the Lone Star Tick, Black Legged Tick, and the Western Black Legged Tick. Most victims of Human Ehrlichiosis have had underlying immunosuppressants, but this isn’t always the case.

In my home town in Tennessee an outbreak of Ehrlichiosis was detected in one of our more well know retirement communities. Researchers, including myself found that the majority of the victims had been exposed to the disease through tick bites that occurred while they were playing golf. The victims were generally older, but had been considered in good health. Patients with ehrlichiosis generally visit a physician in their first week of illness, following an incubation of about 5-10 days after the tick bite. Initial symptoms generally include fever, headache, malaise, and muscle aches. Other signs and symptoms may include nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, cough, joint pains, confusion, and occasionally rash. Ehrlichiosis can be a severe illness, especially if untreated, and as many as half of all patients require hospitalization.

Prevention
The best way to beat these diseases is to prevent the initial infection. This is often easier said than done. Several things can be done to limit your risk of exposure.
– Wear long sleeved shirts when possible
– Tuck pants into boots or socks
– Use repellents such as DEET (N,N-Diethyl-meta-Toluamide) or Permethrin
(Note: Permethrin should not be applied to the skin, only to clothing. Studies have shown that DEET products containing more than 7% DEET should not be applied to the skin.
– Wear light colored clothing when possible to aid spotting ticks
– Self check thoroughly when you return indoors
– Keep screens on windows and doors in good repair
– Caulk cracks and other entry point on homes
– Use mosquito netting when camping. Information on these and other arthropod transmitted diseases can by found through the US Centers for Disease Control web site.
With the proper education and a little preparation, the risk from insect transmitted diseases can be greatly reduced.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Several readers sent us this: MIT develops way to bank solar energy at home

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Eric forwarded this: America’s house price time bomb – Walkaways. I predicted this phenomenon, first mentioning it back in 2005.

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Nearly a dozen readers sent us the link to the recent New York Times article on Suburban Survivalists. Coincidentally, the subject of the article is a SurvivalBlog reader. In an e-mail to me yesterday, she mentioned: “I must tell you something, funny or sad, depending on one’s perspective. The copy editor [from The New York Times] called several times for clarification about wheat. He could not understand what I meant by storing wheat or grinding it. He had no idea where flour actually came from. He could also not believe it when I referred to having several hundred pounds of grains stored. He thought that figure was way too high.”

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Luke N. found an article that indicates that the trend toward smaller portions for packaged foods that started in the UK has made its way to the United States.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“One ought never to turn one’s back on a threatened danger and try to run away from it. If you do that, you will double the danger. But if you meet it promptly and without flinching, you will reduce the danger by half. Never run away from anything. Never!” – Winston Churchill

Note from JWR:

We’ve completed the judging for Round 17 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. First prize goes to Thomas G., for his article “The Tomato Rebuild–Machining Technology is Crucial to Modern Society”. He’ll receive two valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Together, they are worth up to $4,000!) Special thanks to Naish Piazza–Front Sight’s founder and director–for his generosity. Be sure to check out their web site and class calendar. The Memsahib and I can both vouch for the quality of their training, from personal experience. It is amazing!

Second prize goes to Ryan S., for “Packing The Vehicle G.O.O.D. Bag“. He will receive a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing.

Honorable mention prizes go to three writers: “Wolverine”, for “Checking Your Preparedness with the PACE System”, to the Y2K-Era Prepper for “After 10 Years–Some Observations and Lessons Learned“, and to C.G., for “A Citizen’s Band (CB) Radio Installation Primer”. They will all receive autographed copies of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”.

Note to the prize winners: Please e-mail us to let us know your snail mail addresses, so we can mail you your prizes.

Round 18 begins today, and will feature the same prizes. So get busy writing and e-mail us your entries, folks! Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Letter Re: Remote Rural Retreats Versus Living in a Small Town

Dear Jim:
I found an interesting article that argues against a remote, rural retreat for an urbanite.

He reasons:
1. local kids with time on their hands will sniff out your retreat in their exploring
2. Any road to your place will get checked out eventually by kids, a utility employee, a hunter, etc., etc.
3. A remote place gives a thief all the time in the world to break into a cabin or recreational vehicle, pre-disaster.
4. When you are at a retreat, post-disaster, you are on the defense, the offense (potential looters) gets to choose the time of attack; you are vulnerable to long range sniping

His solution, a la Mel Tappan, is to live in a small town and get integrated into the local community. Your profile of buying, and growing, and helping out locally should be high, but your wealth profile, and preparations profile should be very low. Have lots of folks looking out for you, rather than relying on remoteness.

For a slow slide, grid-up situation this makes a lot of sense. I question how well this strategy would work if it is a true TEOTWAWKI situation where starvation is widespread…
But he brings up serious issues about how to keep your retreat unmolested – how likely is it that local kids would ignore fences? What measures can you take to prevent burglary?
Regards, – OSOM

JWR Replies: I concur that “in town” retreats make sense in a Grid Up situation, where law and order are maintained and there is still a functioning economy that keeps store shelves stocked. But in a Grid Down societal collapse, a mutually-defended cluster of farmsteads will probably be far more viable. With too many mouths to feed, even small towns may have their citizenry quickly degenerate into the worst sorts of savagery.

My position is that remote rural retreats can be quite viable, provided that:

1.) Your retreat has a full-time caretaker for the present day circumstances

2.) Your retreat is occupied by three or more families, immediately after the Schumer hits the fan (SHTF), and you are prepared to man a 24/7/360 defense. (24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with full 360 degree perimeter coverage.)

For any readers that do decide to opt for “in town” retreating, I highly recommend that you set as key criteria a town that has reliable rainfall, preferably in a “truck farming” region, and

As I’ve stated many times, isolation just by itself will not protect you and your family in a time of lawlessness. In Schumeresque times it will take trustworthy friends and vigilant security to survive. I firmly believe that looters will not pick on well-defended retreats. They simply won’t want to risk taking casualties. Few would be that suicidal. Instead, they will prey on those that show no signs of an organized defense. Why would they want to try cracking a “tough nut”, when they could pick on granny, down the road?

I posted the following in SurvivalBlog back in August of 2005. Since many readers haven’t worked their way through the Archives, it bears repeating:

Not everyone is suited to tackling the tasks required for self-sufficiency. Advanced age, physical handicaps, lack of trustworthy family or friends, or chronic health conditions could rule that out. If that is your situation, then you will probably want to establish an inconspicuous “in town” retreat rather than an isolated “stronghold” retreat.

If opting for “in town,” buy a masonry house with a fireproof roof and on an oversize lot. (Make that wood frame construction if you live in earthquake country.) Carefully select a town with a small population—somewhere between 1,000 and 3,000 if it has a true “end to end” gravity fed water supply, or from 200 to 1,000 if the water system is in any way dependent on the power grid. (The 1,000 upper limit is for fear of sanitation problems.)

IMO, towns any larger than 3,000 lack a cohesive sense of “our community”, and any town with a population smaller than 200 would lack a sufficient mix of skills and the manpower required to mount a sufficient defense in the event of a true “worst case.” I believe that it is best to avoid larger towns. At some point over the 3,000 inhabitant threshold, the “we/they paradigm” will be lacking, and in a true TEOTWAWKI it could be every man for himself.

The late Mel Tappan wisely opined that if your house is at the end of dead end of a road at the edge of town with no close by neighbors, then it might just as well be five or ten miles out of town–since it will be psychologically outside of the invisible ring of protection that will constitute “in town.” Post-TEOTWAWKI, the “we/they” paradigm will be forcefully if not painfully obvious. If you are “in town” you will benefit from a de facto Neighborhood Watch on Steroids. Make sure that your retreat is either clearly “in town”, or not. A property that is halfway in between will have none of the advantages and all of the disadvantages.

Tappan championed the concept of “small town” retreating: owning a mini-farm that is physically and psychologically inside of an existing small community. This approach has several advantages. Before making your decision, consider the following pro and con lists:

Advantages of “In Town” Retreats:

Better for a slow slide scenario or a “grid up” depression wherein the local agricultural and industrial payrolls may still be viable.
You will be a member of the community.
You will benefit from local security arrangements.
Ready access to local barter economy.
Ready access to local skills and medical facilities.

Disadvantages of “In Town” Retreats:

Privacy is very limited. Transporting bulky logistics must be done at odd hours to minimize observation by neighbors.
Fuel storage is severely limited. (Consult the local ordinances before you buy a home.)
Poor sanitation in the event of “grid down” situation, unless your town has a truly “end to end” gravity fed water system. (More on this in a subsequent post.)
You can’t test fire and zero your guns at your own property.
You can’t set up elaborate antenna arrays or your house will look out of place.
You can’t hunt on your own land.
You can’t keep livestock other than perhaps a few rabbits. (Consult the local ordinances before you buy a home.)
You can’t make substantial ballistic and anti-vehicular barrier retreat upgrades.
Greater risk of communicable diseases transmitted by casual contact.
Greater risk of burglary.
Greater risk of having your “hoarded” supplies confiscated by bureaucrats.

Advantages of Isolated Retreats:

More room for gardening, pasturing, and for growing row crops.
Lower house and land prices. (More for your money.)
Better for a total wipeout “Grid Down” scenario when virtually everyone will be out of work. (Hence the local payroll will be a non-issue.)
You can stock up in quantity with less fear of the watchful eyes of nosy neighbors.
You can test fire and zero your guns at your own property.
You can build with non-traditional architecture (earth sheltered, for example.)
You can set up more elaborate antenna arrays–and other things that would look odd in town.
Better sanitation in the event of a “grid down” situation.
You can hunt on your own land.
A place to cut your own firewood.
You can keep livestock.
You can make ballistic and anti-vehicular upgrades. (As described in my novel “Patriots”,.)
A “dog run” chain link fence around your house won’t look too out of place.
Virtually unlimited fuel storage. (Consult your county and State laws before ordering large gas, diesel, heating oil, and propane tanks.)
Much lower risk of communicable diseases. Particularly important in the event of a biological warfare attack—but only if the bug is spread person-to-person rather than airborne.

Disadvantages of Isolated Retreats:

Impossible to defend with just one family.
Cannot depend on much help from neighbors or law enforcement if your home is attacked by looters or in the event of fire. You will likely be entirely on your own to resolve those situations. If and when a gang of looters arrives, it will be you or them–no second place winner.
Isolation from day-to-day barter/commerce.
A longer commute to your “day job”, shopping, and church.

A careful analysis of the preceding lists (plus specific localized considerations) should lead you to concluding which approach is right for you, given your family situation, your stage in life, and your own view of the potential severity of events to come. Pray about it before making a decision of this gravity.

These issues (and many other related ones) are discussed in my nonfiction book “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation”

Letter Re: Vision Care, Post-TEOTWAWKI

Sir:
Have you covered vision care in a TEOTWAWKI scenario? Eyeglasses, contacts, etc? I currently wear contacts and it’s super easy to stock up on extra contacts and a spare pair of glasses but it’s one more thing we take for granted. I guess Lasik is probably not worth it unless your insurance helps or you have the money to burn since that much money could go towards better preparations.

Thanks for your site! – Ben in Tenn.

JWR Replies:

Corrective eye surgery was discussed in SurvivalBlog in December of 2006, in this excellent article: Lasik Versus PRK Eye Surgery for Preparedness, by Simple Country Doctor.

I am a big believer in owning at least two pairs of prescription eyeglasses–or perhaps three pairs if you are like me and have a strong correction. (If you are prone to saying “I’d be useless without my glasses”, then get three pairs, including at least one pair with extra-sturdy frames–something similar to military issue BCGs.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Frequent content contributor Cheryl N. sent this. How Wall Street Wrecked Your Retirement. Cheryl notes: “Our dysfunctional financial system hit a new low last week when Citigroup, the hopeless wreck of Wall Street, announced it had lost $2.5 billion in the past three months–a cheer went up, and so did the Dow. Only $2.5 billion; people were afraid the losses would be much higher. Happy days are here again.” Meanwhile, President Bush very quietly signed a massive bailout bill, for individual mortgage holders, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Just as I predicted, we are witnessing the near-continuous growth of the Mother of all Bailouts (MOAB). Perhaps I should start referring to those profligate spending politicians in Washington, D.C. as “The Moabites.”

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In a NewsMax piece, Ken Timmerman (one of my old associates with Defense Electronics magazine in the 1980s) reports: U.S. Intel: Iran Plans Nuclear Strike on U.S.. I trust Ken Timmerman. He is an old hand at Middle reporting. He was headquartered in Paris for many years, where he developed quite extensive contacts in both diplomatic and military circles. His MEDNews (Middle East Defense News) newsletter had a loyal following and was considered a key open source publication by the western intelligence community. I have little doubt that Iran will use nukes if and when they are able to obtain them. But I think that it may be a decade before their “home grown” nuclear program reaches the pint that they can assemble a bomb that will actually reach critical mass.

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A.V.S. found this at Time magazine’s site: Designer Bulletproof Fashion. Rather than buying over-priced “designer” vest/garments, I recommend that you buy more affordable standard body armor vests from reputable vendors. (One great one advertises on SurvivalBlog)

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Frequent content contributor Cheryl N. flagged this: Merrill Woes Could Spread. Here is a good observation included in the piece: “Sovereign-wealth funds from Asia and the Middle East and private-equity firms swooped in with capital infusions for many big banks during the winter when it appeared the worst of the housing meltdown was behind the market. But with many of those bets now under water, such investors might be reluctant to pour new capital in given the prospect of further troubles with so-called collateralized debt securities, or CDOs, which include bundles and bundles of now near-worthless home loans that were sold off to investors around the globe.”

Note from JWR:

Today we present the final entry for Round 17 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win two valuable four day “gray” transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Worth up to $4,000!) Second prize is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 18 (which runs through the end of September) begins tomorrow, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

Preparing for a Dam Breach, by A.B.S.

Many of my fellow Tennesseans awoke to headlines the other day that two of the Corp of Engineers dams in our area that are supposed to protect the people from floods and provide water and electricity are in danger of failure. Built more than 50 years ago, the Wolf Creek Dam and the Center Hill Dam overlook several hundred thousand people in central Tennessee, and are leaking significantly. The Wolf Creek Dam has been classified as being at high risk of collapse.

The Wolf Creek Dam is located on the Cumberland River 190 miles up stream from Nashville. The dam has had problems for more than a year and last year, officials determined repairs would need to be made to the dam because of leaks in and around it. The dam holds back 100+ miles of the Cumberland River, near Jamestown in south central Kentucky. Now, the dam is weakening and immediate action is being taken to stop what could be a catastrophic flood. The water level was dropped and more testing was done on the dam. It is the results of those tests that caused officials to put the dam at high risk of failure, though they state failure isn’t considered eminent. A gentleman I know that works for the Corps has stated that large chunks of masonry the size of small cars fall off the dam weekly, so I choose to remain skeptical about the Corps position.

If the Wolf Creek Dam were to break, starting 100+ miles up the Cumberland River in Jamestown, Kentucky, the town of Celina, Tennessee would be flooded first and most likely wiped out completely. Then, water would flow downstream toward Carthage and Old Hickory Lake impacting the towns of Gallatin, Hendersonville, Mt. Juliet and Old Hickory before flooding downtown Nashville’s riverfront area under as much as 30 to 50 feet of water. While Nashville would have some warning, many of the smaller towns mentioned would be impacted so quickly that warnings would be ineffective. The area impacted would be massive.

This has been a wake-up call for many citizens in our area. For many the threat of a major catastrophe was what it took for them to finally learn they need to be prepared for potential emergencies. What was startling for many of our citizens was that these are major impoundments maintained by the Federal government. While this was a wake-up call about the possible threat from major impoundments, most people still are not aware of smaller private and municipal impoundments that potentially pose a threat every day. Many of these small dams have ruptured in the past century leading to death and destruction on a massive scale. Some examples are the Johnstown, Pennsylvania flood of 1889 that killed an estimated 2,300 people, the Baldwin Hills Reservoir in California in 1951, and the privately owned plantation dam that broke near Kilauea, Hawaii in 2006. So what can be done to better protect you and your?

First, make a point to become aware of any and all dams that may pose a threat in your area. Even small farm pond dams can cause significant flash flooding if they breach. Floods, especially flash floods, whether from rain or dam breaches, kill more people each year than hurricanes, tornadoes, wind storms or lightning. About 60% of all flood deaths are people in vehicles that moving water sweeps away. Experts advise you not to drive or wade into flood water at all, especially if you can’t see the bottom. Water over a road, no matter how deep, can hide washed-out pavement. As little as six inches of moving water is enough to float a small car and carry it away.

Always prepare for problems before they happen. When possible build your home on high ground, and if possible never downstream from a dam. During the winter of 1991 a dam on a five acre impoundment ruptured a few miles from my home. Luckily the people a couple of miles downhill were warned and escaped harm, but their homes were washed off their foundations and across US Highway 70, which was a couple of hundred feet away. These homes were on high ground, but someone built a relatively small pond on even higher ground that had a devastating effect.

Get a copy of the 500 and 1,000 year flood zone maps for your area. These will tell you the most likely route the water will take following a catastrophic breach. They will also point out the likely flood areas from heavy rainfall or snow-melt. These are useful tools, but as shown in the previous paragraph, don’t get overconfident. When possible don’t build in these areas. It still amazes me how many people will build in the same location after floods have wiped out their homes on multiple occasions. I know some may not have a choice, but this isn’t always true.

Get a weather radio. If a large dam breaks, warnings will be broadcast through the emergency channels, but don’t count on this when dealing with smaller dams. If a warning comes down that a breach is about to happen, get out. I know many of us including myself don’t really trust the “authorities”, but I think in these cases the wise thing to do is “bug out” and get to a safe location, then assess if it was the proper mode of action later. To do this, plan and scout several potential escape routes. Most people will take the route they are most familiar with, and it always seems to be the same route, which turns the road into a parking lot. Often smaller less well known roads can get you out of the area faster. In my area the local emergency personnel are encouraged to learn the local off road trails in case something happens to the main roads. This would also be advisable for the general public, as this may be the only way out. Set up a meeting place that all the members of your family or circle know about as a rally point. It is also a good idea to designate a family member or friend in another county or state as a contact person. This is so anyone who can’t arrive at the rally point can check in with their status and location. We saw this happening many times after the tsunami in Indonesia as many tourists became separated from their parties. Make sure everyone has the number, email address, or whatever. This information should be memorized in case they become separated from their wallet, date-book, etc.

Sometimes the opportunity to evacuate is lost through hesitation or just bad luck. In these cases one should try to find an area to “evacuate vertically”. In many cases this means sturdy built, tall buildings, towers, or hopefully a mountain or hill. If the water approaches too rapidly, this may simply be a tree. Again, scout around to see what would be available if something were to happen.

If you have to escape a flood or any situation it is a good idea to have a emergency pack with sufficient supplies ready. This may include food and water, first aid gear, medications, a change of clothes, communications gear, fire starting supplies, and in my case a spare set of eye-glasses. I also suggest having a cache of supplies in a secure location, just in case you need them.
Hopefully nothing like this will befall you, but being prepared could mean the difference between life and death should the worst ever happen

Letter Re: Converting Gas Engine Vehicles to Propane

James;
I haven’t seen much discussion to date in SurvivalBlog on Propane-burning vehicles as a retreat / bug out / EMP-proof vehicle. From what I understand, Propane combusting vehicles are not as popular in the USA as they have been in Canada, not to say we have a large amount of them running on streets, however, they are here and they are available. I’m looking at a EMP proof vehicle right now which happens to be a 1985 Chevy, 4×4, 1/2-Ton which has been converted to propane. Are their any issues with this that you may or may not be aware of as an EMP proof convertible vehicle?

Propane is currently cheaper [per gallon] than gasoline and as you know stores much longer than that of Gasoline or [even] Diesel. If it can be done, others should start looking that way. Aside from the small amount of loss in power, the pros could far out weigh the cons providing they can be EMP-proofed, which I don’t know anything about when it comes to propane vehicles. Please advise. Thanks in advance. – Dan S.

JWR Replies: Because propane might be hard to come by “on the road”, I don’t recommend propane for bug-out vehicles, unless your retreat is within range of one tank of fuel. But propane is ideal for trucks and tractors that will not often leave your retreat property. I prefer converting pickups rather than SUVs, since propane fuel tanks are relatively large. For some details, see this blog piece that I posted in June.

A 1985 Chevy will have an electronic ignition system. But it is not too difficult to retrofit a traditional ignition system (with rotor, points, and condenser) at the same time that the fuel and Carburetion systems are converted to propane. (Owners of newer vehicles should be advised that there are other microprocessors present in critical subsystems. (Most notably solid state voltage regulators and components in the fuel and transmission systems that should also be retrofitted to make a vehicle “EMP proof”).

There are some issues involving payment of road taxes, in some states, when converting to propane, If it were not for that, I believe that propane conversions would be much more popular. (Consult your state and local laws before doing a conversion.)

Propane or “GNC” (Gaz naturel comprimé) conversions are popular in many countries. For the sake of versatility and flexibility, I highly recommend that one of the vehicles at your retreat can be run on propane. With today’s soaring gasoline and diesel prices, you will have the added benefit of buying fuel that is less expensive, per BTU. (At least at the present day.)