Notes from JWR:

Today we are pleased to welcome our newest advertiser, Turtle Tuff Shelter Systems, in Utah. Be sure to double click on the video link at the top of their Photo Gallery page. What an amazing shelter!

If you have a favorite quote, feel free to suggest it, via e-mail. Chances are that I’ll post it as a Quote of the Day. Thanks!

The high bid is now at $200 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction, for four items: a Baygen Freeplay Summit digitally-tuned AM/FM/Shortwave radio, and a Baygen Sherpa hand crank flashlight. These were kindly donated by Ready Made Resources, one of our most loyal advertisers. Also included in the auction lot is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and an autographed copy of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. These four items have a combined value of more than $350. The auction ends on November 15th. Just e-mail us your bid.

Are Your Neighbors Contrapreneurs?

The American newspapers are presently full of stories about declining suburban home values and the galloping foreclosure rates, mainly in the coastal markets. (The erstwhile “hot” real estate markets have turned bitter cold.) As more and more foreclosures get dumped onto an already over-saturated “buyers market”, there is a strong likelihood that prices will spiral downward. Anyone that bought a “spec” house is now trying to get rid of it, even if means taking a loss. The downward pressure on house prices is likely to continue for several years in the coastal areas, and in few inland markets like Phoenix and Denver.

The folks that bought “spec” houses at the top of the market are what I call contrapreneurs. They are holding an investment with steadily declining value. Most of them, sadly, used borrowed money to do so. Thus, not only are they riding a down escalator, but they must continue to service their debt on a house with a negative cash flow. Strapped for cash, many overextended themselves, and they are defaulting in alarmingly large numbers. Just as I predicted, some of them are starting to abandon their houses without so much as a fare-the-well to their bankers. This is a downright ugly situation. If the US economy noses down into recession (as I anticipate), with corporate layoffs intensifying the mortgage default numbers, then this could very well go down in history as a housing market collapse.

You may have bought your house a decade ago, well before the big run-up in prices. If so, even if prices decline 50% (as some predict), you would probably still be ahead. But what about your 20-something next door neighbor that bought his house in the summer of Aught Six? Odds are that he bought his house with little money down, via an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM), and at a peak of the market price. Now that prices are dropping, your neighbor is probably “upside down” in his mortgage. (Owing the bankers more than the current market value of the house.) It may be four to 12 years before the market pendulum begins to reverse and prices start to creep back upward. Don’t be surprised if you wake up some morning and find that your neighbor moved out in the middle of the night, unannounced. (What our friends in England charmingly call “a midnight flit.”)

The full implications of the housing market bust won’t be known for a few years–once we are closer to the bottom. I suspect that the psychological impact of that many people losing so many billions of dollars and in many cases the roof over their heads, will be devastating.It may be remembered in the same way as the stock market Crash of 1929. There will be a lot of “riches to rags” stories, and I suspect that this collective trauma will considerably affect the buying, investing, and saving habits of Americans for the first couple of generations in this new century.

One likely side effect of the correction of housing prices is that there will be a considerable lag in downward adjustment in property taxes. Local tax officials are always quick to raise taxes in a booming market, but they will probably drag their feet when it comes time to lower taxes.

Another side effect will come in the next couple of years, as savvy house renters start to hound their landlords, demanding lower rents. All they will have to do is threaten to move out–leaving their landlords with a negative cash flow and no prospect of matching the current rent. Some might consider this more ugliness, but it is actually one of the beauties of the free market. A truly free market eventually achieves price equilibrium. Nearly two years ago, I warned SurvivalBlog readers to jettison any urban or suburban rental houses that they might own. I hope that they heeded my advice.

As previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, a small portion of rural foreclosures may represent a retreat buying opportunity. Monitor the market closely, either through a cooperative agent in your selected retreat area, and/or through Foreclosure.com. You may find yourself a bargain in the months to come.

Three Letter Re: The Recent San Diego, California Wildfires

Jim:
I have the rest of the day off due to the wildfires in the area so I am at home. The firefighting aircraft have been grounded due to wind until a couple of minutes ago. The evacuation zone is currently a 1/4 mile east of me. My northeastern and southeastern escape routes are currently out of the question. I figure that by the time I get told to Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.), the Northern route will be closed off or too crowded to take. Going South into Mexico is currently not an option due to the makeup of my G.O.O.D.kit ([which includes] military caliber firearms and ammo.) Probably will head to the beach area if I need to G.O.O.D.. I have a couple of friends in that area. I do not want to G.O.O.D. until the last minute due to security reasons. [For fear of looting of my household goods.]. One positive thing is that there were several small brush fires pretty close to me several months ago so the underbrush is already burned away. The fire department is spending too many resources arguing with the people who refused to evacuate to get them out of harm’s way and they are not able to allocate the resources to fight the fire.

I had my low profile small duration G.O.O.D. stuff loaded in my vehicle within 15 minutes. I had parts of the kit stored in multiple locations in my place and it took only 15 minutes to gather my stuff. Only things missing were my Baygen radio and toilet paper. (That’s what the liberal newspapers are for.) I was planning on getting a solar/hand crank radio and had put my hand crank radio into storage. My low profile kit is configured so that anyone looking into my vehicle will not know that I have gear in my vehicle, yet enough for me to live out of my vehicle for a few days.

I topped off my gas this morning before I went to work. Not surprised to find out that no one else at work had packed their essentials in case they are not able to make it back to their abode due to road closures. A lot of people were bugging out early from work due to the spreading fire so we decided to close down the company. I really didn’t care since I was already equipped to survive. Later,
– “Dan Fong”

JWR Adds: In case you are wondering, yes, the writer of this letter is my real life friend of 25+ years, upon whom the Dan Fong character in my novel “Patriots” was directly drawn. And yes, he really says “Oh maaan!”

 

Jim,
First, I must say after reading you for a while now almost every thing on television I see, or disaster, or shopping excursion my mind wanders to ” What would Jim say?” Thanks for your wisdom and guidance.

What if you have to abandon your fixed position? like the 500,000 – 1 Million good folks in Southern California?
Obviously one should have copies of all pertinent documents on an encrypted portable drive on their person and if possible all the family photos and originals of those docs not too far away in a briefcase ready to move at a moments notice. What about my arms collection and ammo ? a real house fire will cook a safe and ruin the guns. I have many coworkers and friends in the San Diego area are that are affected and may be homeless soon. please pray for them. If you live in an affected area please have you gear ready to go this time of year (October Santa Ana winds in so cal, hurricane season in the south, tornado season in the midwest, blizzard season in the north east and any earthquake area). ( as an aside, notice no stories yet of rapes at the football stadium or looting?)
…
I was at Hearst Castle this past weekend and we went on the tour that included the wine cellar. recently you suggested that if you were building a custom home, use non-local contractors.But if you were pouring a nice all concrete basement, I would suggest that you just tell the local guy that its a wine and root cellar/ pantry. Of course Hearst had real steel safe doors for locks and his was compartmentalized, his excuse that they told us on the tour was that if a basement fire broke out it could be contained. One could make an interior room of the cellar their armory / reloading room and then the outer part of the cellar their wine cellar and pantry. Anyway, this is food for thought.
…
Lastly, with Halloween season upon us, you may have noticed all the stores have all kinds of candies in bite size packaging for sale. For the last few years, I have bought several bags of my favorite chocolate bar and vacuum packed them and then kept them in my camping box (for camping treats as well as long lead time BOB food) and my BOB. Rotating them annually hasn’t been a problem if you keep it out of any heat. A real grinch could then give away the year old candy on 10/31.. or just eat it. if you wait until 11/1 your choices may be limited but you can get the candy for 1/2 price. if anything, trade barter or making the kids happy and its some quick energy.

Along these same lines, I was also at the beverage superstore lately and saw all the little 50 ml single serve ‘airline’ bottles. Me thinks a case or two of these of various hard liquors could be tucked away for future trade barter or medicinal purposes. Your thought?
Thanks, – Tim L.

JWR Replies: As a Baptist, I don’t personally stock any liquor for barter. But many folks see the wisdom of doing so. OBTW, if you do buy any liquor, one variety stock up on is the 190 Proof variety of Everclear grain alcohol, which also has medicinal purposes (for sterilizing instruments and for making tinctures) and can be used as lamp fuel.

Jim:
I write this to you as I communicate with my family still in the fire zones in San Diego. I am a former San Diego resident who happily relocated to the wet and soggy Pacific Northwest. I still have family and memories of the region. My step mother reports that she is on alert to bug out with minutes notice. She is sleeping tonight with a packed car in the driveway and in street clothes so she can go fast to G.O.O.D.. However, there are serious concerns and issues my family has expressed.

1) Main travel ways, arterials and so on are clogged. Fire and emergency vehicles going in, folks evacuating out. As a kid in San Diego, I watched some friends get seriously burned in their vehicle when they were trapped in a blow over, caused by them staying too late. Burning to near death in their car was horrific enough. Over 250,000 people ordered to evacuate. San Diego has an excellent highway system but when you have that many moving . . .
2) Many folks have been reluctant to leave. Family has stated that they are aware that looters and burglars have worked some mandatory evacuated neighborhoods to their benefit. If your house doesn’t burn, it could get robbed.
3) What people are packing for evacuation in their vehicle is insane. Everything but what they really need (documents, photos, family bible, etc.). I was listening to a cable news program tonight in which a producer admitted that she evacuated her house, taking important things like her Emmy [Award Statue]s. For the love of goddess!
4) Fire is a sadly common event and yet people in that area still have homes with shingle roofs and land that has not been disaster proofed (ice plant, sprinkler systems, etc.). Several years ago, my dad rejected a shake shingle roof system to replace the old one. He now has good ole terra cotta and stucco sides (gee, odd how the early settlers knew how to mitigate fire damage to their buildings).
5) Telling statement from a local television report: “ The mayor’s office put out a call the public to help provide for the evacuees at the Friars Road sports arena. The following items, which should be taken to the stadium’s “P” gate, are needed: tents, cots, water, blankets and prepared food.” Oddly enough, these residents knowingly live in fire and earthquake zones and yet they don’t have supplies. Worse yet, the city is unprepared for the numbers of evacuees. Makes the preps we do seems at that much more intelligent.

Anyway, some thoughts for the SurvivalBlog readers. My thoughts and prayers go out to those affected, my family and those fire fighters and cops going into these zones to put down the fires and help the people out.
– MP in Seattle (a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber)

Odds ‘n Sods:

Writing in The Daily Reckoning, Bill Bonner offers this snippet of investing Gloom and Doom: “Foreclosures in the yankee state [Massachusetts] are running three times last year’s level. And losses are working their way up the socioeconomic ladder. Goldman Sachs’ (NYSE:GS) Trust 2006-S3 is a sophisticated investment instrument containing 8,274 mortgages. One out of every six of those mortgages is in default – only 18 months after the thing was put together. When that many people stop paying, it wipes out the entire capital value of the derivative. And since speculators usually take leveraged positions, the losses can go much further.”

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To follow up on yesterday’s post about the imminent short supply of infrared chemical light sticks, I heard that Ready Made Resources does have some left in stock. (They have just been reclassified and will no longer be produced for the civilian market in the US, so stock up!)

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Larry W. forwarded this link: Staring Into Countrywide’s Abyss

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I just heard that CGW (one of our advertisers) is currently offering deep discounts on some Trijicon ACOG tritium-lit scopes and a few discontinued Microtech Amphibian knife models.

Notes from JWR:

I heard from my publisher that my wholesale cost for copies of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” has increased by more than $2 each. Unfortunately this means that I’m forced to raise my price by $2 each, to $24 per copy, postage paid. (See my updated Catalog page.) I will, however, continue to honor my “six pack sale” price of just $90 (which equates to just $15 per copy, postage paid), but only until the end of October. Note that immediate deliveries are limited to supplies on hand. Once those have been expended, there may be a delay for re-stocking until mid-November, when the last of the October six pack orders will be shipped. Orders will be shipped in the sequence that payments are received.

The high bid is now at $150 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction, for four items: a Baygen Freeplay Summit digitally-tuned AM/FM/Shortwave radio, and a Baygen Sherpa hand crank flashlight. These were kindly donated by Ready Made Resources, one of our most loyal advertisers. Also included in the auction lot is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and an autographed copy of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. These four items have a combined value of more than $350. The auction ends on November 15th. Just e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: British Army Surplus Ferret Armored Scout Cars

Jim,
I was reading in the SurvivalBlog Archive and it seems that you used to own a Ferret armored car. It piqued my curiosity and I have researched it all over the Internet. I found out that it had 8-to-16mm of armor but nowhere does it say what projectiles that [armor] will stop. What ordnance are these resistant to? To .50 caliber. To .30 caliber? Bugging out in one of these would be interesting. Ideally you would want two Ferrets to bug out so you could rake the mutant zombies off of each other but will your gun punch holes in your friend’s Ferret if you were just trying to get bad guys off the top of his Ferret. Can you recommend a web site to research these cool vehicles? There seems to be a lot of sites that only have a short summary about it but only general information. Do you know of any forums that talk about these vehicles in detail? Thanks, – Jeremy

JWR Replies: Ferret scout cars are certainly fun vehicles to own, but they are:

1.) Quite noisy (you need to wear earmuffs inside),

and,
2.) Surprisingly small. Their ground “footprint” is about the same size as a Chevy Suburban. They just weigh four or five tons. Most Ferrets only seat two: a driver and a “commander”. (Or perhaps three for short distances if you leave the radio mount area behind the commander’s seat open.) They were designed to be scout/reconnaissance vehicles–not serious armored fighting vehicles.

and,
3.) Short range. They only have a range of about 180 miles, at the typical 4 mpg (off road) to 7 mpg (highway). Strapping additional gas cans on externally would of course be a hazard.

For the second two factors cited, I do not consider Ferrets serious survival vehicles. They are just too small to carry enough cargo and fuel to be practical.

My Ferret was one of just a handful of the up-armored Mark 4 model in the United States. (At the time it was thought to be the only Mark 4 in running condition in the US.) I bought it shortly before Y2K, when I was working in the San Francisco Bay Area as a technical writer. I had intended to use it as a “convoy escort vehicle”, to shepherd my extended family out of town in the event of a societal collapse. (I also had the all-important “accessory” Model 1919A4 in the turret–a semi-auto made by Valkyrie Arms. With some reluctance I sold my Ferret along with the M1919A4 just before we moved back to hinterboonies in mid-2002.

The upgraded armor on the Mark 4 model will reportedly stop .50 BMG frontally, but only .30 armor piercing (AP) on the sides. The armor on the much more common Mark 2 model will stop .30 caliber AP frontally, but only .30 soft nose (not AP or even FMJ “ball” ammo) on the sides.

To provide truly practical armored “Get Out of Dodge” capability, I would instead recommend buying a pair of the much more roomy Cadillac Gage V-100 wheeled APCs (with squad-size capacity), preferably with the combination .30/.50 belt-fed turret. (For scraping goblins off of friendly APCs, you would naturally safe the .50 M2 and fire just the .30 caliber, or perhaps even just a .223 or shotgun from a firing port.) All this Road Warrior-ish talk may sound captivating, but be forewarned that V-100s are quite rare and $80,000 plus, without armament. This is yet another reason that I discourage “land mobile” retreating.

For anyone considering buying a Ferret, I recommend the Ferret Heaven discussion board. as well as this page at Doug’s, and the archived pages from Jim Webster’s now defunct “Ferret Heaven” web site.
One reputable armored vehicle dealer that I can recommend is David Uhrig.

Letter Re: Reverse Osmosis Water Purification for Urbanites

Dear Editor:
Greetings, fellow urban dwellers! As an intermittent 10 Cent Challenge subscriber (I put in money when I have it, the Lord has seen fit to test our family lately) and semi-survivalist, I would like to talk about reverse osmosis (RO) filtration systems. Can you afford to depend on the municipal water system to provide clean water? In the event of water supply contamination, you can use portable systems such as the Katadyn or Big Berkey filters, but I want to save my bug-out supplies for bugging out. Also, the first indication that there is a problem is when people start getting sick, which means that you could already be exposed. A [daily use] RO system under the sink is cheap insurance at under $300, and you also save from not having to buy bottled water. When the municipal water system was contaminated, I was able to give drinking water to my neighbors. One [of them] has since purchased his own unit. These systems work on water pressure, so if your water is cut off, hen so is the RO system.

However, many times there is plenty of water available, just not clean water. For this eventuality, one can build a [RO] pressure chamber. I used a piece of 6″ PVC, capping it at both ends and standing it on end. On the top, install a half-inch valve and a Schrader valve (tire pressure valve), on the bottom end put a quarter-inch flexible tubing outlet. The assembly sits on a wire plant stand. To use this, turn off the water and disconnect the tubing inlet to the RO system, connect the pressure chamber tubing instead. Add water to the pressure chamber (I use a funnel with a coffee filter), then pressurize it with a bicycle pump, preferably one with a pressure gauge attached. RO systems work best at 40 psi, but provide water down to 20 psi. Add water and re-pressurize as needed, usually every 30 minutes or so depending on your chamber size. With RO systems you throw away a gallon or more of water for every gallon of water they make, so keep that in mind. Distillers produce cleaner water, but require a source of energy, which may not be available, so I consider them less reliable in troubled times. Keep a spare set of filters, replace them regularly, and prosper! – Justin B.

Odds ‘n Sods:

An insider at Cyalume just let me know that because of pressure from the US State Department, infrared chemical light sticks have been reclassified and will no longer be produced for the civilian market in the US. (When activated, these light sticks are barely detectable with the naked eye, but shine with high intensity when seen through “Starlight” light amplification technology night vision goggles or weapons sights. I strongly recommend that you stock up now, while there are still some of these light sticks on the civilian market. You should buy a five year supply for your retreat, and store them in your refrigerator. (They have about a five to seven year shelf life, so there is no pint in buying more than a five year supply.) Remember the small Freon canister production ban? And the more recent iodine crystal (“Polar Pure”) ban? Based on those experiences, prices are likely to escalate considerably. (The law of supply and demand is inescapable.) Let’s just hope that the folks at Ready Made Resources still have some left–plus a few “Surface Trip Flare” trip wire activators. Be sure to order by phone, since quantities are limited. They can be reached at: 1(800) 627-3809.

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Ben L. suggested this video clip: A professor of anthropology at a Utah university is doubling as a concealed weapons instructor.

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Jeff K. noted this article from GATA.org: New Treasury documents reveal loans, swaps of U.S. gold

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RBS flagged this one: 20 years later, could markets crash again?

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“No free government, or the blessings of liberty, can be preserved to any people, but by a firm adherence to justice, moderation, temperance, frugality and virtue, and by frequent recurrence to fundamental principles.” – George Mason (1725-1792)

Note from JWR:

The high bid is now at $100 in the SurvivalBlog benefit auction, for four items: a Baygen Freeplay Summit AM/FM/Shortwave digitally-tuned radio, and a Baygen Sherpa hand crank flashlight. These were kindly donated by Ready Made Resources, one of our most loyal advertisers. Also included in the auction lot is a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and an autographed copy of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. These four items have a combined value of more than $350. The auction ends on November 15th. Just e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Lack of Government Preparedness and Infrastructure Upkeep Necessitates G.O.O.D. Planning

Jim,
Popular Mechanics magazine outlines five scary Katrina-esque scenarios in various parts of our country might face in the coming years. I find it interesting that two of the five involve California and three of the five involve large bodies of water. People in the affected areas need to seriously consider moving out or having a Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.) plan. Also, just because you don’t think you are near any bodies of water, it does not make your home immune to floods. When checking a local university’s Emergency Preparedness Plan, I found out that my neighborhood is part of a flood plain for a dam 16 miles away. Fortunately, high ground is within a five minute walk and any flooding from catastrophic failure will take [considerable time] to reach my home.

I pray that nothing horrible will happen to my loved ones, but since reading and acting on the advice of SurvivalBlog, I am more confident in my ability to protect my family. As concerned citizens, we all need to get after our local and Federal government to maintain and improve our infrastructure so we can avoid these disasters. But, like you’ve admonished us before, we must be prepared in case our government fails us. Because they have, and they will. – Mark D., Utah

Letter Re: Mylar “Wine in a Box” Inserts for Liquids Storage

Mr. Rawles
I stumbled upon this thread about these guys doing a cross-Africa trip. Its pretty long, but worth the read.

One piece of interest was the use of the bags that wine-in-a-box comes in to store fuel.

Here is the link to the start of the thread, just keep clicking “continue” at the end. Warning: There is some National Geographic-type nudity. – Slinger

JWR Replies: This topic came up once before in SurvivalBlog. OBTW, it would be quite dangerous to store anything that is more flammable than waste vegetable oil (WVO) in a Mylar bag. Use only proper containers (such as DOT-approved fuel cans in the US) for transporting flammable liquid fuels.

Letter Re: The Southeastern US Drought

JWR:
I was talking to a friend in North Carolina this afternoon and he was telling me about the drought conditions in the Charlotte area and he relayed to me some interesting drought news.

– The several acre sized lake on his property has dried up.
– Duke Power has issued a statement, in the local area, to expect power disruptions in the coming months due to low water levels in the reservoirs that Duke operates that is used for hydro power, cooling towers, and such.

Here is a link from the DOE about a drought’s drain on power. The article is from 2002, but the conditions are worse now.

Best Regards, and I am taking advantage of your “6-Pack” sale for autographed copies of “Patriots”. – Desert T