Letter Re: Your Next Career in the New Economy

Dear SurvivalBloggers:

So, you’ve prepped and developed skills but what if you actually need to work through the depression? What if the depression lasts longer than your preps and the ‘new economy’ isn’t amenable to your current job which requires factories, computers and shipping etc?

You can either learn a useful trade like being:
A Veterinarian or Doctor, but there probably isn’t enough time to go to school for six years.
You can learn another useful skill like plumbing, welding, carpentry etc. But then you’re competing with other plumbers, welders, and carpenters.
Or, you can have some kind of cottage industry that uses locally-produced raw materials and creates needed products… Yes!
Is there a lot of grain growing where you are? Okay, how about being a miller.
Is there a lot of unpurified water where you are? Okay, how about a drinking water vendor?
Are there a lot of animals where you are? Okay, then become a tanner and or tailor.
If you can find something that has some skill set involved, good. Even better if there is some specific tool required to do the job that no one else has locally because the current economies of scale make it cheaper to have it done in bulk somewhere else. – SF in Hawaii

Letter Re: Recommended Sources for Gardening Hand Tools?

JWR,
Preparing for our first garden, other than large pot/barrel gardening, next year. Headed down to our local ranch/farm supply store to pick up some gardening tools, e.g., shovel, rake, hoe, pick, etc.; figured they would be a bit cheaper this time of year. But what I found for sale just floored me. I can’t imagine anyone who had real work to do using any of the products available. The shovels had one tiny rivet holding the blade to a skinny wooden handle; it looked like if it were dropped it would break. The other tools had the same appearance. So, my question to you and/or to any of the blog’s readers is, “What is a quality brand or where might one locate a quality gardening tool product?”

On another note: I’m looking forward to the upcoming release of “Patriots” (with the index and glossary). My previously purchased copies seem to disappear when I loan them out. Have had to become “hard core” and not loan out my last copy, that happens to be autographed 🙂
Thanks. – Ken M.

JWR Replies: In recent years, the US consumer market has been flooded with a plethora of low quality, flimsy Chinese products. Sadly, this include hand tools .These have become so ubiquitous that you have to actively search for good quality gardening tools. The few American-made tools still available have had significant price increases, attributable to the recent spike in steel prices and substantially increased shipping costs.

I have found that it is now better to shop for used, American-made hand tools. Ironically, many tools being sold as “antiques” are more sturdy and a have longer potential service life than the the “factory new” tools that originate in Mainland China’s laogai (“Reform Through Labor”) prison factories. For used tools, watch Craig’s List and even eBay. Last year on eBay, I bought a lot of six “antique” hand scythes (five of which were still quite serviceable), all for $22 plus $11 postage. That same sum might have bought perhaps one or two factory new imported scythes, and I doubt that they would give me near the same service life.

If you can’t find a particular used tool, then one of the best mail order sources for new American, Canadian, and European tools is at Lehman’s.

Letter Re: The Depression of the 1930s–Why No Societal Collapse?

Jim
I run a museum that covers, in part, the Great Depression. In a reply to Steve’s letter about how people may react to a “modern” 1930s type depression, you listed a number of economic, social and cultural differences in America in the two time periods. I might add, or expand on, a few.

In the 1930s, many more people lived on farms or gardened. Even in many towns and cities, it was common to have a garden and raise a few animals including chickens, rabbits, pigeons. An enormous difference, then and now, is that the garden seeds then were “heritage” or open pollinated. That means that a family could save their seed year after year, and always have a crop. That is no longer possible with today’s hybrids. If you save seed now, they, (the hybrids), won’t come back the next year. In a major economic breakdown, there will be little distribution of anything, including seed. No seed, no garden.

In the 1930s, most people had wells or cisterns for water. Today, if the electricity goes off, no more “city” water. Formerly, most people had outhouses. They didn’t need flushing. Today, if you can’t flush, you’ve got a biological lab in your bathroom within three days. In the 1930s, there were more horses, more donkeys, more mass transit and railroads, and more bikes. Today, no gas means no mobility. 80 years ago many more people preserved their own food. It was common for most folks to dry, can, smoke, salt, pickle and cold cellar, food. Today, many people consider food storage a discount card to a restaurant. In the 1930s, most people heated with wood or coal. Now, it’s almost entirely “on demand” gas in a pipe, or electricity. Formerly, most people had treadle sewing machines, grain grinders and meat grinders. Today, nada. In the 1930s, far more people practiced folk medicine and used herbs. If you got cut, sew it yourself. Got sick, chop a chicken and make soup. Today? You’d better have a pill bottle and insurance.

In the 1930s, far more people were church goers. Families tended to live closer to each other. People in general had a more self-reliant attitude. If someone had a problem, they tended to try to solve it themselves. And if they couldn’t, their church family, or own their family, would help them. Society today includes far more people who think the gov’t should, and will, be their caretaker.

It’s my belief, that if today we have a depression, if only as bad as the 1930s Great Depression, that [the societal impact of] such a depression will be many times worse. It’s a somewhat real possibility that, today, in a severe enough crisis, there would be no transport, little food or medicine, no heat, no sanitation, no water and very little cohesion of society.

In the 1930s, people sold apples on street corners, and a popular song was “Brother Can You Spare a Dime?” I’m afraid that today, it may be far more common for people to try to take what they can, and consequences be d***ed. A 1930s-type Depression today ? Not pretty.

Jim Fry
Museum of Western Reserve Farms & Equipment

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Willa. J. e-mailed me to ask if we have “…now seen the bottom of the stock market?” She went on to ask if it was safe to starting “buying back into the market” as some of the cheering section “analysts” on MSNBC have suggested. Don’t get suckered in! As I mentioned a while back, price to earnings ratios have a lot farther to fall, to match typical recession lows. And since the current slump in not just a typical market cycle manifestation–rather, it was triggered by the worst credit collapse in history–the markets could get hit even worse than they were in the 1930s. Most ominously, the huge drop in The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) illustrates the deep level of distrust that now exists for letters of credit in transoceanic trade. Global commerce is essentially shutting down. Any corporation that depends on international trade is likely to suffer very badly in the months to come. Dear readers, if you haven’t done so already, get out of your dollar-denominated investments (including stocks), and buy tangibles. Inflation will return with a vengeance. This is inevitable because of the monumental public spending on Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB). When inflation does kick in, you will be glad that you own productive farm land, tools, a family food reserve, and precious metals to preserve your wealth.

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Neil G. mentioned this this bit of confirmation for something that SurvivalBlog readers already know: Yes, We Have No Silver

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More news and commentary from our Economic Editor: Stocks Fluctuate As Investors Weigh The Economy — Oil Prices Tumble To Lowest In More Than A Year — Treasury Set To Dish Out Financial Rescue Funds — Asian Stocks, US Futures Slump — US Stocks Start Day With Further Decline — Credit Squeeze May Cut Crops, Spur Food Crisis — Nikkei Dives 6% — Argentina And The US Dollar’s Fate — US Dollar Currency Collapse Within 30 Days — Getting Ready For “The Turn” In The Dollar — Europe On Brink Of Currency Crisis

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Sean M. found a link to a home biodiesel maker. For a lower-cost solution that is designed for even higher production volume, Ready Made Resources sells another biodiesel making system that is also factory made.

Note from JWR:

The recent MSNBC article on survivalism has spawned numerous spin-off pieces that have mentioned SurvivalBlog, including one on NPR’s All Things Considered show.

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $600. This auction is for a mixed lot that includes:

1.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

2.) A custom-made, fully-stocked EMS Medic Bag from Cajun Safety and Survival (a $212 retail value)

3.) A NukAlert radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value)

4.) A case (6 cans) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 (96 ounce) cans donated by Ready Made Resources (a $160 value)

5.) An autographed copy of “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” ($24, retail)

See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for complete details on these items. This auction ends on November 15th. Please e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: The Depression of the 1930s–Why No Societal Collapse?

Hi Jim,
I really enjoyed reading your novel “Patriots”. I’ve read a few other books also, like “Lucifer’s Hammer” and I have to admit that they spurred me to buy a 22 LR [rimfire rifle] as a starter.

I’ve been doing a lot of thinking of our current situation in this country and it occurs to me that every generation has things going on that is very concerning. But in particular was thinking the Great Depression should have been a good example of things going to h*ll. Yet there was not this great meltdown where people needed to go to retreats and such. So I’m writing this e-mail to see if you’ve done any research to do comparisons with our [present-day] situation and the Great Depression situation to determine why the country did not collapse during that time period. Thanks, – Steve

JWR Replies: Thanks for raising that point. It is well worth discussing. There are some substantial differences between our society in the early 21st Century, and America in the 1930s. With these differences, our society is now much more fragile and vulnerable to collapse. Here are a few that come immediately to mind:

Consider the Attributes of America in the 1930s :

A largely agrarian and self-sufficient society. (Now, just 1% of the population operating farms and ranches feed the other 99%.)

Not heavily dependent on computing and communications, technology, grid power, and petroleum-based fuels.

Shorter chains of supply. Most food was grown within 100 miles of where people lived.

A very small underclass that was dependent on charity or public welfare.

Lower property tax rates and lower (or nonexistent) license fees, vehicle registration fees, et cetera.

The majority of workers lived near their work.

Most displaced workers were willing to accept lower-paying jobs–even doing hard physical labor.

The entire nation was economically self-sufficient and could carry on without many imports.

Far greater self-sufficiency at the household level (domestic water wells, windmills, wood burning stoves, home vegetable gardens, home canning, and so forth)

A much lower level of indebtedness (public and private). At the outset of the Depression most families had cash savings. (We are now a nation of debtors.)

A sound currency, still backed by specie. (Although FDR‘s administration seized most privately-held gold in 1933, the currency was at least still fully redeemable in silver coinage until 1964.)

Lower percentage of corporate employment–so there were less risk of huge layoffs that would devastate communities

A significantly more moral society that still had compunctions and a prevalently law-abiding attitude.

A homogeneous population that largely shared common Judeo-Christian values. A much larger portion of society attended church regularly

A simpler, less extravagant lifestyle, with tastes in cooking and entertainment that did not require large outlays of cash.

Most families owned only one car (with proportionately lower registration and insurance costs), and they lived in smaller homes that were less expensive to heat.

In summary, in the 1930s it cost a lot less to live (as a percentage of income) and people were willing, able, and accustomed to “making do” without. When people lost their jobs, in many cases they didn’t lose their homes because they were paid for. Many folks could simply revert to a self-sufficient lifestyle and earn enough with odd jobs to pay their property taxes. What fraction of

The bottom line: If America were to experience a Second Great Depression, given the high level of debt and systems dependence, there would be enormous rates of dislocation and homelessness. And with modern-day immorality and the prevalent “me first ” attitude, I have no doubt that riots and looting would absolutely explode.

Letter Re: How to Handle Real Estate Holdings in a Economic Depression

Sir:
If the global economy melts down and we experience a “greater depression” or worse. What is the best strategy for real estate that is already owned? I own a primary home and two rental properties in central Virginia but if the SHTF, I’m going to retreat along with numerous family members, to our farm about 25-30 miles from the nearest city. (It has hundreds of acres for growing, and has ample water, etc.)

I don’t have substantial equity in any of my three houses and all mortgages 30 year fixed through Bank of America. Is it worth continuing to try to pay on one or more of these? If the county is on the skids for several years and job loss is substantial, do you think there would be bank/government lack of mortgage payment forgiveness and allow people to resume payments if or when things returned to relative normalcy?

I’m pretty certain that I would leave remaining credit card debt unpaid. If the SHTF, a poor credit score would be least of my worries. Do you agree?

Any other thoughts on this topic would be greatly appreciated. I may be a little naive is assuming the USA will return to a state of normalcy but it is a very real part of my planning process. Or is there basically no chance of a return to normalcy after such an event? Thanks in advance, – Joe

JWR Replies: Anyone that has vacation, rental, or “investment” properties with mortgages attached should beware! A negative cash flow will be disastrous in an era of widespread corporate layoffs. Face facts: It is very likely that a recession or even a depression is just around the corner, and the collapse of real estate prices is likely to continue for several years. If you can break even or get out with a small loss, then I urgently recommend that you start selling property and don’t stop until until you have a solid positive cash flow. If you try to juggle too many mortgages, you may lose everything.

As I’ve said before, a total wipeout is unlikely. Far more likely is a straightforward Depression, perhaps inflationary, perhaps deflationary, but in any case nasty. Banks and civil governments will still function in all but an absolute worst case situation. That means that you will still have to meet your obligations for mortgage and property tax payments. Be ready for such times by getting out of debt!

If you are completely “upside down” in one or more mortgage, then think twice about just walking away, and mailing your banker “jingle mail.” Unless you are self-employed, I recommend that you do so only as a last resort. Keep in mind that credit scores are now part of the background checks that are now standard practice in the hiring process for many corporations. It would add insult to injury to ruin your chance of getting re-hired by wrecking your credit rating.

Letter Re: Salt and Other Key Items to Store for Barte

James-
I have a tip for my fellow SurvivalBlog readers on salt. Most anyone with a well will probably have a water softener, and as such will know that salt comes in large 20-50 pound bags. We get it for our softener for about $5.00 per 50 lb. bag. Be sure to check the label, and make sure that it is pure sodium chloride, (table salt). Others are Potassium Chloride, the “other” table salt. Watch out for the ones that have additives, of course. Being “rock salt” it’s got large crystals, but you can easily crush or grind it. It’s available at hardware stores and places like Ace, TruValue, Home Depot, Lowes, Agway, et cetera. Regards, – Rick D.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader “Bigbird” spotted this “must read” piece: In Europe, crisis revives old memories. Bigbird’s comment: “It looks like Americans aren’ t the only ones who practice survivalism.”

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Bob McC. mentioned this Piece at Fox News: Uses for $700B Bailout Money Keep Changing. Bob’s comment: “The clueless Congress just starting to discover that banksters lied! And they wondered why 3/4ths of American constituents opposed the plan!”

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Reader Currie M. sent us this link: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) Plummeting. Currie’s comments: “I consider this an accurate representation of economic conditions, in real time. It seems to signal what other indicators take much longer to recognize. This BDI chart signals to me that the the world economy is grinding to a halt. The globalization bubble is deflating at a horrific pace. A ninety percent drop! Not only are there grave economic considerations to having world trade crash, but the recent rumors of banks not wanting to accept letters of credit from other previously trusted international bank partners is strengthened. Who wants to ship if they will not get paid? The entire world (not just the US or European) banking/financial system is tottering.”

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From our ever-reliable Economic Editor, Cheryl N. comes this news and commentary: The 1929 & 2007 Bear Market Race To The Bottom — Nouriel Roubini: I fear the worst is yet to come — US Joins UK On “Brink” Of Recession — Gold Stocks Were Financial Saviors In The 1930s — October: Monster Market Mash

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Susan Z. flagged this article by our friend Michael Panzner: ‘When the U.S. Sneezes, the Rest of the World…’ Yikes! This is starting to sound much more like an incipient depression rather than a recession.

Notes from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $560. This auction is for a mixed lot that includes:

1.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

2.) A custom-made, fully-stocked EMS Medic Bag from Cajun Safety and Survival (a $212 retail value)

3.) A NukAlert radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value)

4.) A case (6 cans) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 (96 ounce) cans donated by Ready Made Resources (a $160 value)

5.) An autographed copy of “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” ($24, retail)

See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for complete details on these items. This auction ends on November 15th. The opening bid is just $50. Please e-mail us your bid.

Today we present another Retreat Owner Profile, which will soon be added to the Profiles static page. BTW, we still have room for several more international profiles (outside the US). I am saving the last few slots in the US profiles section for people that have very unusual home/retreats. Perhaps someone that lives in an underground house or in a surplused missile silo? If you decide to e-mail us your Profile, please closely follow the same format used in the the others. For your privacy, be sure change enough details so that your neighbors won’t recognize you. (You can even change the locale to another state with a similar climate).

Retreat Owner Profile: Mr. Romeo

Retreat: Live-aboard 30-Foot Sailboat

Age: One male 34 years old

Background: Grew up in small town next to Vandenberg Air Force Base, watching missiles being launched and sometimes blown up [“flight terminated”] over the ocean. I always knew that seeing one missile being launched meant “test” and that two or more mean “imminent death”. Grew up with most “toys” being bought at army surplus stores. My brother and I were the only kids who when we played “war” dressed in full army gear, complete with combat boots, helmet with outer cloth cover stuffed with branches, belt with two canteens, belt back pack, shovel, ammo cases, full camo clothes…the list goes on and on.

I moved to a southern California harbor 40 miles from Santa Cruz Island about two years ago to be closer to work (and distance myself from the nuke magnet–Vandenberg AFB). I have been getting everything on the boat ship shape for last two years. I have also been buying survival gear suited for an ocean retreat WTSHTF.

Annual Income: Was $46,000 a year until I got laid off three months ago.

Investments: So far 30 grams Pamp Suisse bullion, survival gear, food stores

Present Home: 30 foot Catalina Sloop sailboat that was but in the 1970s. I have upgraded the rear stern rails to ones with incorporated rear seats, repaired both sails, replaced the lifelines, replaced all essential lighting with solar powered LED lighting and have kerosene backup lighting in every berth. I also have solar powered exterior lighting.

For entertainment I have an XPower solar power pack that will charge my Creative Zen and portable DVD player starting from dead batteries with a one day charge on the power pack. That gives me 3-4 hours of DVDs and 11-12 hours of MP3 music a day, every day [for pennies in the lifetime cost of the system]. I have spare new batteries for all three units in the boat. Since I live aboard I am tax exempt and only pay $45 USD every two years for craft registration. I also have to pay $20 USD once a year to have harbor patrol give me a live aboard safety inspection. Insurance is $400 a year.

Vehicles: I have a 2005 Tank Urban Sporty 150cc scooter made out of chineseum and a 1999 Honda civic LEV (low emissions vehicle), they cost about $120 USD a year for registration and about $600 a year to insure with the minimum required by law. The scooter gets about 60-to 80 mpg and the Civic gets 30-38 mpg but I mostly ride the scooter.

Firearms: Winchester 12 gauge semi auto with 300+ rounds of birdshot (also have bandoleer that holds 50 rounds). Compound bow and arrows. Flare gun and 10 flares. About 60 yards cheap floating rope. (This is a defensive weapon) to foul the props of any would be attacking boats Just cut it into 10 foot strips and throw into water. I also have a machete, an axe, a Blackie Collins design Gerber clip lock serrated knife as well as about 30 other (various) knives.

Gardens/Orchards/Food source: What’s the biggest highway in the world that is full of food? The ocean, it is also the biggest moat in the world.

Property Tax: None.

Communications: VHF radio handheld and onboard units for emergency use, cell phone for domestic calls.

Food Storage: 50 pounds of rice, large supply of canned ham, large supply of canned food, I have also stored a lot of extra salt and cooking oil onboard for bartering purposes. I have room to store 20 gallons water built into the boat and have room for about 50 more gallons in storage.

Fuel Storage: 20 gallon tank built into the boat, five gallon tank in the dinghy and 5-1 gallon tanks under the cockpit seats.

Survival gear: Propane barbeque with extra canisters of LP, PUR Survivor 06-LL Desalinator Watermaker, 400 count 65 mg potassium iodide tablets sealed in factory bottles, solar lighting inside and out, solar fan that I made that works day and night.

Two fishing poles and assorted fishing tackle, Sailrite lsz-1 sail and canvas sewing machine with heavy duty stainless steel hand crank for use offshore. And of course the assorted tools needed to keep the boat working.

Worst Case Scenario: Economic collapse, nuclear war, Waterworld, tsunami, civil unrest, corrupt government declaring martial law, you name it. I am just a power cord and four dock lines from New Zealand via Hawaii or Baja California to Mexico. The thin veneer that holds “civilized” society from becoming something like the Rodney King riots is not as thick as you might think. Like a castle with a large moat, like an island or an oil rig is how I plan to bug out. Since owning the sailboat I have traveled over 400 miles in five trips to the islands and in that time I’ve used perhaps one gallon of gas.
Blow ships are the cat’s meow when it comes to efficiency. Top sailing speed (so far) 9.4 knots under full main and 120% jib.

JWR’s Recommends: Increase your food storage! Buy as much as can possibly fit in the space available. You should also increase your solar charging capacity so that you can keep your deep cycle batteries (for VHF radio, navigation, and cell phone charging, et cetera) topped off, even without running your auxiliary engine.

For defense, first buy 50 rifled slugs and at least 100 buckshot 12 gauge shells (000 is the best pellet size for shipboard defense.) You should then add a scoped stainless steel .308 or .30-06 bolt action rifle for “stand-off” self defense against pirates. (A stainless steel Browning A-Bolt with a half dozen spare magazines would be ideal. Second choice would be a Winchester Model 70 Classic Stainless.) Buy at least 500 rounds of .30 caliber ammunition–a mix of AP, ball (FMJ), and soft nose. BTW, it is too bad that you can’t buy tracer ammo in California. If you lay down accurate fire with AP ammo at 450 yards, pirates will go find someone else to pick on! I also recommend that you add an intrusion detection system to your deck, to alert you if anyone attempts to board your sailboat when you are berthed or anchored at night. Also, if your budget allows, buy at least six large white parachute flares, so that you can engage targets with your rifle at night. And if you can afford it, also get a headset-type night vision monocular, such as an AN/PVS-7B. Get firearms and medical training as soon as you can afford them. (Low-cost training is available from the American Red Cross, the Appleseed Program, and the WRSA.)

Buy a spare membrane and any other key spare parts for your desalinator. I recommend that you get as much blue water sailing experience as possible Since you’ve been laid off, it could be a great opportunity. You might try networking to find a trans-pac yacht crew/security position. (Check Craig’s List and CrewFile.com for openings.)

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader MGB recommended this brief but insightful page on outdoor survival: Survival Myths… Debunked

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Hawaiian K. sent us a link to a New York Times piece that made my blood boil. It is innocuously titled: So When Will Banks Give Loans? But it would have been better titled: Your Tax Dollars at Work: Expanding a Banking Empire. Read the article carefully. The banksters at JP Morgan Chase plan to spend $25 billion of gifted taxpayer dollars to fund acquisitions of smaller banks.

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I just heard that Ready Made Resources now has a small quantity of used water-tight Hardigg cases available, for just $39.95 plus shipping. These have great potential for caching guns in damp climate regions. These cases are full military specification, and highly recommended. Buy a few before they run out!

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I spotted this at The Drudge Report: Companies start competing for bailout money

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More from Cheryl: Congress: What Ben And Hank Aren’t Telling You — Taiwan Dumps Fannie & Freddie — Survival: Learn From Argentina’s Collapse — Thousands Of Hedge Funds On The Brink Of Failure — Car Makers Slam On Brakes As Orders Drop — Citadel Admits 35% Dive In Hedge Fund Value